DrumBeat: August 21, 2006
Posted by threadbot on August 21, 2006 - 9:10am
Decaying pipelines threaten to add 20% to energy prices in next decade
BP Plc's shutdown of the largest U.S. oil field may be the first of many, as decaying pipelines threaten to add 20 percent to energy prices in the next decade."We'll look back on this event as the Pearl Harbor Day in energy," said Matthew Simmons, chairman of energy investment bank Simmons & Co. International in Houston. The chance that the leaks and corrosion found at Prudhoe Bay by BP, Europe's second-largest oil company, are an isolated occurrence is "zero," said Simmons, who's writing a book on aging oil infrastructure.
The September Scientific American (special energy issue) is now online. You can see the table of contents here. Most of the articles are behind a paywall, but one, A Climate Repair Manual, is free.
How global demand adjusted to oil prices: Growth in demand for oil has been contained in those non-OECD countries which have raised administered prices of petroleum products.
Sinopec's Iran oil block fails to yield enough reserves
A new argument on oil drilling in Alaska
Precious resources should be hoarded for generations, not incinerated in less time than it takes to wear out the warranty on a minivan. If a family had one cord of firewood left for the winter, would it make sense to burn it as rapidly as possible? If a student were down to the last $200 in the checking account, would it make sense to race to the next ATM? Racing to use the last of a depleting resource is foolish.
Airlines tremble at the prospect of $100-a-barrel oil
Chris Skrebowski: Oil prices on rise till 2010
U.K.: Ambassador warned of Azerbaijan oil pipeline risk
Japan and China Race for African Oil
Oil price rise fuels leap in US arms sales
THE WAR on Terror and windfalls from rising oil prices have helped to push American military sales to foreign governments to their highest level since the first Gulf War.
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Well, I guess Kunstler has to include at least one sentence in there related to oil, so he can pretend his columns since the start of this Israeli/Hezbollah 'unpleasantness' are more than just pro-Israeli editorials.
I do wish he'd zip it and get back to what he's really good at. If I want to read pro-Israeli editorials, I don't have to read Kunstler's column: I can just open the editorial page of any major American newspaper any day of the week.
It was James Kunstler who inspired me and led me to the subject of peak oil via his home page. His book, "The Geography of Nowhere" is, in my opinion, among the finest works of our time and literally changed my life. I often refer to it when promoting the concept of New Urbanism. He is an immensely talented writer whose polemics on our energy conundrum and the failures of suburbia provide a necessary voice on these paramount issues. His writings are something I always look forward to.
Having said this, I do wish he would step back from his diatribes on Middle East issues and stick to what he is best known for.
I think that the Left's (justified, in my opinion) hatred of Bush has literally driven a lot of them crazy.
I see it simply as Olmert didn't acheive his military objective (secure a strip of land into Lebanese terrority to prevent their missles from striking Israel) and Hezbollah did (prevent Israel from occupying their land).
Also, there are people on both the left and the right who object to America sticking their nose into other country's business, giving free money and military equipment to other countries, intervention on the internal affairs of far away nations, etc.
Another example would be the sly bipartisan support for decades of illegal immigration, an elite backed policy that is not even supported by legal immigrants, much less native born US people.
Every nation is entitled to self determination and the repulsion of invaders.
Long live Hezballah.
Death to all infidel "occupiers" of this Planet.
Long live Ebollah.
Long live the reign of our dark master.
It has everything to do with it.
The horses on the beach. I forget the terms. But basically, Connery was part of the fascist, Nazi SS, futuristic IslamoFascistJihadiDeathCult-types ...until he was set free by smokin-hot early 70's chickie-bunnies. And the flying head.
'Omega Man' is the next film you need to review. Heston in the Matheson Zombie classic.
Hell's Ebola Plague. C'mon, my man, we have screenplays to write.
The Zardoz community was largely about technology as you recall. They got past physical stuff and were into the whole mind thing. Oil would mean nothing if we could just get it out of our heads. No?
Closer to the Singularity, however.
I guess you have to be quite a bit loaded with your "good stuff" to see the analogies you are reporting.
Doesn't Kunstler say that Tex? LMAO and agree.
People here seem extremely naive to me. And maybe a little too smug and superior acting.
It sounds like most people here grossly underestimate radical islam in so many ways it's sad and not laughable at all. It's as if everyone here thinks the world consists of one homogenous culture and the idea of Religious LUNATICS is limited to Jerry Falwell et. al.
And of course I doubt very, very much anyone HERE has Yet had to face being blown up by a pretty, young women suicide bomber, or random missile, etc, etc so it is easy to sit and pretend to be Morally Superior and Judge From Afar.
Iran and Radical Islam are very serious when they preach and teach their ignorant and mostly poor and desperate Masses to Hate the Great Satan... but they truly mean The West in general. After that they kill eachother off to see who Allah liked the Bestest Afterall. Sorta like a Jerry Falwell on Steroids and Adrenaline running the USA (and no, Bush is a christian loony but not psychotic like the mullahz).
I agree with Adysseuse - I think Kunstler sees the real threat and it is most certainly a Symptom of the energy crisis. Israel is the only thing close to a real democracy in the Middle East and the most stable country there by far, so it makes sense that we do not abandon them. Would you rather count on the current batch of Arab governments as allies in such an Oil-Rich region? With the growing poliTICal power of Iran and Radical Islam?
I think Kunstler is looking at this from a very practical standpoint and the sad but true FACT is that Iran (nuclear or not) and Radical Islam is a Clear and Present Danger to most of humanity. With Peak Oil they know TimezUp - their own oil reserves are declining and they literally cannot afford to wait forever for their little Armegeddon.
The "z" thing doesn't really work. Nor the CAPS. Shakespeare already tried it. He said,"scratch that." But go ahead. Try it one more friggin' time. Maybe you know better.
But of course, your response doesn't address a single point in my post or the thread. Nope, you just post an angry critique while Posing as a wanna-be editor for "Entertainment Tonight"... (hmmm, now why doens't that surprise me).
Need a "reload"?
Nevertheless quite good stuff you have, been running for more than 8h30mn since this morning CET.
But it is dangerous for your health.
This little Lebanon war boiled up because
- an adventurist US administration, which has already done major damage to the region through its comic-book geopolitical analysis and systematically wrong-headed interventions, wanted to use Israel as a proxy to provoke Syria and Iran; and
- a new, inexperienced Israeli leadership (which, a rare occurrence, included no experienced military men), feeling validated by US backing, pursued its own (legitimate defensive) goals through an immoral and ill-advised adventure.
It just so happens that these foolhardy actors played into the hands of the Hezbollah, and that the Lebanese nation (which has few opportunities to exist, and has no vocation to hate Israel as such) united behind its "defensors", the Hezb, who are in reality its worst enemy.So, in this precise instance, wailing about how all the Arabs hate Israel / hate the US / hate "our values" is wildly inappropriate. Lebanon is a place where fashionably-dressed young women can drink alcohol in public during Ramadan, where you can see the Vagina Monologues performed in Arabic, Beirut is the cultural and intellectual centre of the Arab world in the way Baghdad used to be decades ago. Lebanon, of all places, is not your monolithic bloc of seething hatred.
Or it wasn't. The Hezbollah, darlings of the Muslim world after their "heroic" resistance against the IDF, would like it to be. And they have received a powerful boost from their objective allies, Bush and Olmert.
OK, go ahead kill me.
You never got back to me with your casualty spreadsheet.
But obviously, the Lebanese casualties blew out when they could actually dig through the ruins without getting strafed etc... I was talking about the numbers announced officially during the conflict.
With respect to ratios, maybe you're right and the Israelis aren't satisfied with 10 to 1. For example, they are now holding 25 members of the Palestinian parliament hostage, for the release of one IDF soldier.
As a special bonus, here's the best succinct military analysis of the conflict I've seen. It's from a friend who spent some time in Lebanon in a UN contingent in the 80s.
Seriously, though. I thought I had won. Of course we will discuss this more. Shame on you MUDLOGGER(and others).
That's about what happened, not the article. I'll go read that now.
but I'm not actually advancing any particular thesis, just trying to analyse events in a fair and balanced<sup>TM</sup> manner. I am not any kind of extremist, I'm well-integrated socially and politically. I engaged you, in particular because I think you are a level-headed guy in general, but appear to exhibit a not-uncommon lack of lucidity WRT the middle east.
Culturally Americans have very little context to distinguish social, cultural and religious differences from our economic and political interests.
The 9/11 Commission Report, carefully drafted with US and foreign interests in mind, identfiied Saudi Arabia as the primary source of funding for Al Queda before and for up to 2 years after the 9/11 attacks.
We are not well-served by assuming that Hamas, Hezbollah, and Al Queda are part of a monolithic movement. But they are different than the PLO, the Baathists and the earlier Pan-Arab movement in that the latter are secular.
If almost 70% of the reserves of oil were not in a tight little triangle in the Middle East we would not have deep concerns about Islam, or its radical and discontented expressions.
But imagine if we did want to comprehend both the challenge and opportunity presented by the Islam and the diversity of its expressions - both healthy and unhealthy. Our starting place necssarily would be on trying to understand an alternative view - of history, religion, culture and society. And just like there is not a single history of Christianity, modernity, Western culture - there is not a single history of Islam, Arab and non-Arab cultures and societies, and traditional, fundamentalist and modern perspectives within various non-Western cultures and societies.
There is a bias to want to see things in "black and white" but the world is colorful, alive and inherently dynamic. How we perceive one another across differences and distinctions within and across societies shapes the world in very real ways.
That is because you and he lack a comprehensive understanding of the fundamentals of Islamic terrorism.
a) That America's Iraq adventure was about oil; and
b) That he didn't in principle have any objections to a).
While I vehemently disagree with b) on obvious moral grounds, I have always grudgingly respected Kunstler's forthrightness on a) - though this does not absolve him of what is profoundly wrong with b).
These factors, combined with his ethnic background, perhaps make his recent pro-Israel commentaries less surprising than they might otherwise be.
To whoever originally requested that...be careful what you wish for, you might not get it.
The best thing about this site is the high-level dialogue concerning oil. The second best thing is that when people cease to talk about oil, they can talk about whatever they want. Or link to whatever they want. Freedom of speech. This community is self-policed - or not at all. Live Free or Die.
(OK, you should probably end this one here, cut out those last three paragraphs...Yeah, that's a good idea...thanks)
TIME magazine has an excellent article on why we don't prepare for disasters.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
This paragraph says it all:
The real issues turn on the waste of federal tax income on military adventures, agri-business, and the like, and a prevailing ideology that society consists of winners and losers, and government has no business messing with this 'natural' arrangement. "We do not want our hard earned money to be spent on those people..."
Maybe, Mr. I-can't-get-this-to-work-because-of-Madison-Jefferson-and-all, should consider contracting the job to the Hizbollah.
Taxing and spending isn't the issue. The political will to use those powers is.
They use New Orleans as an example. Everyone knows that all of New Orleans should not be rebuilt. 57% percent of Americans don't want it to be rebuilt. The state and local politicians know it, too, but do not have the 'nads to say so. They were hoping FEMA would play the heavy. But FEMA wouldn't do it, either. So all of New Orleans is being rebuilt, exactly where it was. FEMA is requiring the houses be 3' higher. Even though some neighborhoods were flooded 20'.
And you really can't blame them. It's become a hot-button issue, tangled with race and poverty. It's a third rail, and no politician who wants to be re-elected is gonna touch it.
The U.S. system is set up to maximize the power of the individual vote. Which has negatives as well as positives. It makes it hard for politicians to tell anyone anything they don't want to hear.
All new homes, even in areas 4' above sea level and without any flooding whatsoever, must be raised a minimum of 3'. A generally unwarranted burden that will make wheelchair accessiable housing almost non-existent.
However, other areas must be substantially higher.
There was some quick "grandfathering" going on before new rules are implemented; and the 50% rule (49.9% damage and new elevations are not required. Sebveral people with nominal 53% damage appealed and got 49% status).
Existing housing stock was mostly built pre-WW II and early after, and is MUCH better quality construction.
When the Levees Broke: A Requiem in Four Acts: Documentary. Directed by Spike Lee. Acts 1 and 2, 9 p.m. tonight; Acts 3 and 4, Tuesday, with repeated broadcasts through Sept. 13, HBO.
'WHEN THE LEVEES BROKE'
Nearly a year after Katrina hit, Spike Lee's latest asks tough questions and lets the victims describe their incalculable heartbreak for themselves
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/08/21/DDGA5KLD031.DTL
May be ALL areas "must be substantially higher" ?
The east coast of North America, with 1, 3, 10, 30, and 100 meter rises in sea-level
FWIW, that NASA scientist who got in trouble with Bush administration thinks sea level could rise 80 meters by the end of the century due to climate change.
340 feet in 100 years?? I thought 200 feet caused an ice age?
This report:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2005/10/10/sea-level-rise-how-high/
Seems to indicate 3.5" to 34.6" in the next century.
Interestingly enough, it has been through my understanding of Peak Oil that I have become quite concerend about the environment - specifically global warming issues.
Wikipedia has an article on rising sea levels.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise
This seems to indicate we are seeing the seas rising at approximately 3mm/year. This is a far cry from 800mm/year which is what you are claiming.
14,000 years ago there was the "Meltwater Pulse 1A" time period when the sea level changed 20 meters in 500 years.
Now obviously these sorts of things tend to have some sort of parabolic growth rate, so I'm guessing that you think sea levels could be rising 1.5 - 2+ meters per year 60 or 70 years from now?
I will have to run some numbers to see what sort of percentage changes that would require on a year over year basis. But on the surface - you have to admit - that sounds preposterous!
Garth
Ok, so I just ran some numbers.
I took a 2006 sea rise number of 3mm.
It will take 8% growth every year for the next 100 years to see sea levels go up 80 meters. Year 2082 would be the first year where the sea level rises over 1 meter. Year 2105 would have the oceans rise 6 meters. That would be approximately 3mm per day!!
I don't discount the possibilities of nasty feedback loops, but surely you have to admit that seems improbable?
Garth
In my defense, my office is halfway between English and metric. We switched over a few years ago, at great expense and confusion, and are now switching back to imperial units. :-P
Nothing like progress is there? :)
Do you have a link to Jim Hansen's work? I'd like to take a look at it. Geologically a 4 meter change per 100 years is considered massive.
There is even a possibility for a sea level to rise by a few millimeters for most of this century, and then to rise 80 feet in the last few yeas as major chuncks of ice break up one after the other.
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/authors/jhansen.html
He's got PDF copies of many of his papers there.
But it's this research that seems to have alarmed him the most:
Growing Evidence Suggests Potential for Rapid Sea-Level Rise
I'm not trying to make the impact of this seem any less, but from the second paper you site comes the following quotes:
Their simulations suggest that the climate in Greenland could become as warm by 2100 as it was during the last interglacial, when high northern latitudes were more directly exposed to solar radiation due to a tilt in the Earth's axis. That warming, coupled with increased melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, could lock in conditions leading to an eventual sea level rise of as much as 20 feet (six meters) in the coming centuries. Under that scenario, much of coastal Louisiana and South Florida would ultimately disappear under the rising seas.
The researchers emphasize that without a more complete understanding of the mechanisms behind the recent increase in glacial flow, predictions of future sea level rise rates are uncertain. But current trends do suggest that ice sheets may be more sensitive to a warming climate than previously thought, and that sea level rise could proceed at rates up to 3 feet per century.
"Eventual rise of 20 feet over the coming centuries."
"rates up to 3 feet per century"
That's a far cry from 80 feet in 100 years.
Garth
Either that, or the British press made the same English vs. metric error I did. It was the British press that reported on the story. It was barely covered in the U.S.
I disagree as well. There is plenty of will and the will is not to act. Run down the list of campaign contributors to your so-called representatives. These people, even in NOLA, are making out like bandits right now. Our system feeds on the destruction. What is more profitable than destruction? Repeated destruction.
Beyond that, there are structural problems with our Commerce Clause and trade agreements. There is too much usurpation of power by higher levels. Who took the Guard and what is it doing right now? The Feds. It's not an issue of which party; this is the neo-liberal agenda. Stripping "redundancy" to just-in-time (or not as the case may be).
The solution, however, is not to concentrate even more authority and power at higher and higher levels, but that is what the PTB will try. We need to simplify and decentralize the response mechanisms, not complicate them. Tainter.
What can New York do to prepare for a hurricane? Start by ordering the Guard home. The lesson from NOLA is we are on our own.
cfm in Gray, ME
That link above of Matt Simmons comparing BP's Prudhoe shutdown as an energy industry 'Pearl Harbour' is a good example of us not preparing for disaster. The Asphalt Wonderland is at the extreme ends of two old pipelines [from TX & CA], recall my recent posting of the problems created in Phx in 2003 when just one pipeline broke down south of Phx.
The tankering of fuel by truck from Tucson to Phx [100 miles or more] was difficult enough, but this would be nothing if the pipeline from California broke down. The CA pipeline provides 60% of our fuels--an significant earthquake in LA would probably leave us without a reliably large and steady fuel flow for some time. Imagine tanker rigs having a 375 mile one-way haul! Even worse, a major corrosion problem from lack of proper maintenance could require these tanker runs for months on end until this pipe was replaced.
It has been mentioned before on how old our nation's water, sewer, and electrical spiderwebs are getting too. How would you like to have your neighborhood overrun by the breaking of an old sewer?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Excellent article! Makes me want to run out and buy an aroma-filtering mask and rubber waders. My guess is most Americans would rather ante-up for a big-screen TV than vote for a tax-increase to replace their sewer lines.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I didn't understand the nature of that "accident" until now.
Not to mention, sewage may be a bigger health hazard, but water lines leak billions of gallons a day of potable water into the ground in the US alone.
And of course, here in FL (and I'm sure there in AZ also) we use about 1/2 our water to keep our st. augustine lawns and flowering shrubs looking good.
It is moreover a further example of the rising demand for "replacement energy", that is energy expended to maintain decaying infrastructure, whether oil pipelines, bridges or sewers, or to rebuild after 'natural' disasters. This demand can be added to the ongoing increase in energy demanded for the production of useful energy. In other words running harder and harder to stay where we are.
This demand carries a large opportunity cost and subverts the systemic requirement for expansion that characterizes the capitalist model of industrialism. It wouldn't of necessity be a problem if the supply of energy available to the economy was unlimited, except to the extent that that supply comes with environmental degradation.
Unfortunately, not withstanding the hot air of cornycups and shysters, all the available evidence points to a severely constrained supply for a long, long time AND an sadly unconstrained increase in environmental degradation.
So here we are. Two thirds of our btu's come from resources on the cusp of decline. (It's irrelevant historically if the decline has already set in or will set in by 2050. Forty-five years ago Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris were slugging it out of the park, Floyd Patterson was slugging it out in the ring and Fidel was president of Cuba. Time passes quickly, kids.) Enormous quantities of energy are required to overcome the endless decay and destruction of infrastructure essential for the continuance of our urbanized economy. And we are conditioned for a system that requires additional units of energy on demand.
It's enough to make me a doomer. Yet, I resist.
Elsewhere, I notice people talking about the usurption of local and state power by the nasty centralists. Definitely something to be said for this concern, but those of us with roots in small communities are well aware of how power can be concentrated on the local level as well, and not for the public good. A federal system with a dynamic tension between local and central authorities can be a very positive thing.
Frankly, I think a greater problem arises from the usurption of the power of love by the charlatans who would define our spiritual lives and in so doing reduce us to impotency.
Hanh?
This is an important point. Ageing infrastructure does need energy and energy-embedded materials to rebuild--and money, and expertise, all of which are in critically short supply. What actually comes to pass will result from a complex mix of competing demands.
The New York subways used to have a program of "deferred maintenance." That's occurring worldwide on infrastructure--oil, electricity, water, roads. There will be a rationing process--short term fixes to critical problems first, them satisficing solutions to bigger issues.
I think it's a safe bet that worldwide infrastructure will continue its long-term decline, with just enough investment to keep it limping along. And the ecosystem will just have to adapt.
I would be nice to share a common understanding of what a "doomer" IS or is not:
- Anybody expecting a total collapse ("a few breeding pairs in the Arctic") can certainly be named a doomer.
- Is anybody expecting "only" a large die-off (billions) but some "civilised" life going on at some places a doomer?
- Is anybody expecting a return to primitivism (with or without a large die-off) a doomer?
- Is anybody expecting a return to warlordism (with or without a large die-off) a doomer?
- Is anybody expecting only "some" die-off (a few hundred millions) a doomer?
- Is anybody NOT expecting "business as usual" a doomer?
- Is anybody NOT expecting "yet we will make it thru tough times" a doomer?
Any votes, opinions or proposals for a more nuanced terminology?
The denizens of PeakOil.com have tried to deal with this issue with a "Doomer scale." Some call it the "Doomertron," others call it the "Doomerosity" scale. It was originally 1-5, but people have gone "off scale," declaring Doomerosity readings of 7, 10 etc.
Darned inflation...
From Orlov:
"Perhaps we should be making some new plans, like the Easter islanders should have done, while there is still time. But there is hardly anything more enduring in the world than human folly, and there is no-one to steer this ship of fools away from the rocks of physical reality. Even if there was, this ship is not designed to turn, or even to slow down, but only to speed up. What other word is there for people who are working harder and harder in order to bequeath to their children a bankrupt country and a planet-sized disaster area - except fools? Some suppose it it our insect-like genetic programming to postpone desperate measures until it is too late for them to be of any use. I doubt that it is: we were free spirits once, before a millennium or two of settled, civilized labor of tending fields and serving a landlord (or serving as a landlord) bred it out of us."
An interesting observation, but do insects really postpone desperate measures ?
Romans had a better excuse.
They didn't know anything about geophysics.
And probably Pompeii was near good economic trade routes and agriculture to make it profitable.
Did people in San Francisco and L.A. rebuild after their earthquakes? Uh, yeah. Kobe, Japan is still there.
Why do people do it? Because they own the property, have a mortgage on it, and if they don't rebuild they'll be ruined.
We should know better.
Something to consider...
The success of America, and ultimately humanity in averting the effects of Peak Oil is first and foremost dependent on us as a collective citizenry/species in recognizing PO as a danger.
In order to promote the cause of recognition, you need to win people to your ideals.
Christians along with others who follow Diety centric beliefs make up the Vast majority of human race.
Tell me how are you helping your cause (PO awareness) by alienating a rather large subsection of the American/World population with your barbed remarks?
You know you could instead of belittling them, appeal to them using their very own religious texts in order to win more PO aware, and potentially active propenents. i.e. God created man to be a good steward of the Earth. Or any number of stories and parables about good stewardship.
However your smugness, and superiority complex does little more than to push away the very resource that the PO cause needs. People, specifically people who care enough to do something and mobilize their wallets and votes. And if there is one thing that many religious people are, it is usually caring, have money, and vote. The religious right don't hold the power they do because they don't vote afterall.
The fact that often times those same people are often locally involved(a concept heavily touted here) in various missions, town boards, charities, XYZ cause awareness, school activities, and Sport/Recreational League activities couldn't at all be of possible use to the PO crowd either could it? Nor the fact that Churches/Temples/Mosques serve as a major center for community involvement in much of the US and the world wouldn't be important either eh?
Trust me when I say, that when you make such snide remarks, you do more to hurt your own cause(and ultimately the acceptance of PO as a problem) than you ever do to those religions. A casual religious passerby who heard a bit about PO and might potentially be a PO convert could be thrown overboard because they were turned off by the tone that your post expresses.
Think before you post. Think about how does this comment WIN people to my cause or does it bash something unrelated and drive a potential fellow Peak Oiler away.
PO needs allies to get momentum. I wouldn't get so elitist as to turn away a potential ally in this matter over something so unrelated as religion.
I'd be happy to discuss these matters after you've completed this work.
I deal in evidence, brother, and there is no evidence of a historical Christ and plenty of evidence of the distortion of the message of the church of the first and second centuries of the common era by self-serving usurpers searching for a means to keep the unwashed in line.
It's time to step out of line.
Our religious institutions should of themselves not be an 'END' but should be the 'MEANS' and therefore not just a social club but instead the POINTER to the "way".
If you can't make it to the light on your own then all the lifted up hands in the world won't help you one bit,nor hymns, nor fallen priests , nor chants, nor strapping explosives on your bod, nor telling others how they should live spiritually.
The truth is out there(thanks X-Files) if you wish to seek it. Some would rather sit around and play ego games whilst sucking up all the loose change in the congregation and having at all the young nubile womemfolk.
As for me I find enlightment in strange places but I started after 30 years of falled church attendance with the Kabballah and reading the Old Testament in Hebrew(a slow but meaningful work).
I also took a stab at the Quran and found out that it was true that Islam wishes the destruction of all the profane and unbelievers(primarily those who deal with crosses).
We are in a religious war. Oil is the apparent weapon. I think we are likely to lose.
After or during that loss, sprituality I think will enjoy a very huge revival, then once more charlatans will arise, migrate to the political arena and we can start it all over again. I am going to miss the 'second' showing, praise deity.
airdale--"I could be wrong, I have been wrong before"
My point is that if unaverted PO turns out to be the doomers scenario, that collective grave isn't going to care whether you are Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Athiest, Agnostic, Pagan, Bhuddist, Hindu, or Scientologist. It will gladly accept your remains all the same.
I'm not a doomer, not yet, and this is largely due to the fact that I think humanity can turn this ship around still. Not a 180 mind you, but a steady course change as more and more people (regardless of faith) are WON to the idea of PO and become interested in alternative energy measures to avert a collapse of our civilization. And people are not WON to ideals when those ideals are being harbored in a hostile forum.
Don't win enough people fast enough however, and those groups you snipe at will still be in the same hole as you. You might think about getting along with them or better yet, appeal to them for a common cause that does all humankind good.
For most of us on this site, PO is a geological event and its consequent difficulties determined by thermodynamic laws concerning net energy.
But for many others, the inevitable decline in perceived standard of living will be viewed as retribution for sin or the inherent evil nature of others.
There will be much scapegoating unless PO is viewed first and foremost as a geological phenomenon.
I am working on an article, "how do I tell my church about Peak Oil" using stories from the bible:
- Noah (duh)
- Joseoph (preparing for the bad times during the good)
- Jeremiah (the original Prophet of Doom)
The tower of babel is very easy to analogize to an economy based on ever lasting growth ala suburbia. When it became impossible to keep growing the society based around the tower it collapsed into factions.Jeremiah said, "we need to return to the Torah or the Babylonians are going to kick our asses." That's like saying in the modern day, "we need to become more frugal and less dependent on borrowed money and cheap crap and guzzling gas or our goose is cooked. Look at Iraq.)
As far as my religious beliefs, the only thing I believe in is "full specturm ass coverage." Thus, I know a bit about each of the major religions and (unlike most white liberals) actaully do have friends of different faiths, races, etc.
Figure if/when I get to the gates o' heaven, my ass is covered no matter which religion turns out to be the ONE true religion.
LUK 12:15 And he said unto them, Take heed, and beware of covetousness: for a
man's life consisteth not in the abundance of the things which he possesseth.
LUK 12:16 And he spake a parable unto them, saying, The ground of a certain
rich man brought forth plentifully:
LUK 12:17 And he thought within himself, saying, What shall I do, because I
have no room where to bestow my fruits?
LUK 12:18 And he said, This will I do: I will pull down my barns, and build
greater; and there will I bestow all my fruits and my goods.
LUK 12:19 And I will say to my soul, Soul, thou hast much goods laid up for
many years; take thine ease, eat, drink, and be merry.
LUK 12:20 But God said unto him, Thou fool, this night thy soul shall be
required of thee: then whose shall those things be, which thou hast provided?
LUK 12:21 So is he that layeth up treasure for himself, and is not rich toward God.
FWIW
I've put some thought into how to present peak oil to religious people in my area also. I believe living simply and humbly is a common thread with all of the worlds major religions.
America's religious people have for the most part strayed from this ideal. Instead of consuming only what we need we seek happiness in stuff. More and larger stuff constantly.
I think Christ would be appalled if he stood in the parking lot of most churches as people drove into services.
Hummers, SUV's, jewelry , personal displays of wealth and personal selfishness.
I think people would agree that Americans have strayed far from Christs message of humility and how important it is to share God's gifts with less fortunate people.
I'd just like to point out that there are numerous other religions in this country and the world which do not even follow the Bible, and many Christian sects that do not need the Bible to convince them of PO.
As point of facts:
-Chrisitanity is not the dominant relgion even in this country, much less the world. It has about a thrid of the world's population, or 2.1 billion people. And of the Christian sects, while the most visible are the Fundamentalists, they range in theology and beliefs from the ultra conservative Southern Baptists to the most liberal Episcopalians. You would have a hard time getting these groups to agree on anything, including Biblical interpretation.
-Islam has about 1.3 billion people.
-Hinduism and Buddhism are the next biggest, at 900 million and 376 million respectively. (I treat these two stats as suspects, as most Indians are Hindu and most Chinese are Buddhist/Confucianist/Zen, and both countries have populations in excess of 1 billion.
-The total number of religions is impossible to determine, but it is at least several thousand.
My point is, convincing religious communities of the reality of PO should be a priority, but focusing on one segment isn't going to go very far. The Religious Right might be the most visible group in this country, but they are really a small minority of even Christians.
And the path might be harder than you think. My own faith, liberal though it is in the extreme, and devoted to the enviroment, justice, etc, has yet to wake up to the realities of PO. Though, since there are at least 3 of us on this site alone, I suspect that will soon change. One thing UUs are good at is stirring up debate.
These puppies:
If we really were a christian nation, we'd have no army...because we'd literally be condemning our soldiers to an eternal hell (#6 in particular). Closing all shops on Sunday would probably bankrupt everyone, and coveting thy neighbors $h!t is totally what suburbia is all about, and drives conumerism - the US would be bankrupt in a day if we followed that.
Prayed for gas lately?
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=1898442&page=1
http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2006/120/41.0.html
http://christdot.org/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=8092
There was a stink just recently in the news about a Teacher being fired because she was a woman (http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=2339673&page=1). Has she ever read the bible? It's not too flattering. First, woman was cast from adam's rib. Then she eats a damn apple and gets them kicked out of heaven on Earth known as Eden. It just goes downhill from there./ "...any wickedness, but the wickedness of a woman...Sin began with a woman and thanks to her we all must die" Ecclesiasticus, 25:18, 19 & 33./
If some supreme being decreed all of this, why is it so fucked up? Why do you have to omit large portions of what it says to be able to live with yourself, to live as an American? If you believe this is the word of God, you must follow it.
With that having been said, I know some damn good people who call themselves Christian. I know some damn good pagans too and a Jew. What does it all mean? I can't really say.
The other day I was in a hospital room.
Spotted a copy of the Bible placed there by The Gideons (who are these guys?).
Started at the "In the Beginning" part.
... And on the Seventh day He rested ...
He? The supreme all mighty? Needed to rest?
What the f___? Since when does a supreme being need to rest?
And what's this jealousy bit at the top of the 10 Commandments pop chart?
And on the 7th day, the almighty one "rested" --cause He was tired and cause he was "happy" with his jacked-off creation but "jealous" with the thought that his lill ones might worship another father? Since when does a Supreme Being have human, male emotions? Hmmm. Something very Self-Image-like here. I wonder why.
P.S. You got the First and 2nd Commandments wrong. That is the problem with translations. You got to go back to the original Hebrew.
Rough translation: (1) Yo dudes, me name is Jehova and I shall be your one and only God. (2) Not in my face are you dudes gonna disrespect me by showing that you "have" other gods. (Although in fact you might "have" these other gods, but don't let me catch you worshipping them above me, the numero uno.)
I understand your concerns but there is a least 2 downsides to your point:
- If you start going "political" with a Peak Oil party-line you are going to the slippery slope of "political compromises" which may bring the same sort of half-baked solutions which come out of the political game and which will be in practice ineffective even when gathering consensus.
Furthermore, apart from the fact that Peak Oil will happen (even so there are also deniers) there NO consensus on the WHAT and WHEN, not to speak of SOLUTIONS, there is no party-line.
- This amounts to some "restraint" and self-censorship which will castrate the brainstorming which makes a large part of the value of TOD, beside the technical matters.
Anyhow...
But you bring up a topic which I've been trying to get my head around also. Should a eureka moment occur and the majority of the population wakes up to find that we are in a hole, what then?
As you say, politics has a way of watering things down into half measures, and wishful thinking. Which is why when I read a lot of posts on this forum advocating government this and government that to bail us out, I have to scratch my head and think huh?
Isn't "government" and politicians part of what lead us to this mess in the first place? Why on Earth would I want to rely on them to bail us out. Especially given their ties, (democrat and replublican alike) to current interests which don't want to see change.
The thing I want government(federal that is) to do, is quit playing favorites, phase out subsidies, and let a level playing field be the arena of ideas in which this contest for the best technology can be fought. And then for the most part get its fat bloated arse out of the way.
If anything, by getting a nationalistic energy approach out of the way, I think it will encourage regional solutions, which may or may not be uniformed across the country. For instance Ethanol in the corn belt, and solar in the sunbelt, and tidal along the coasts. To paraphrase someone on an earlier thread, instead of searching for the silver bullet, we should be looking for the silver shotgun shell, and in my opinion a monolithic federal approach will deter that not help.
Anyhoot, I reserve the right to change my mind, as I'm still fairly new to the PO problem, but my current leanings are that a "political" or rather politically mandated answer is likely to be our goose cooking. A private or State/local push for ideas I think is the better approach. The market I think works, as long the market is getting truthful information to make rational decisions. Part of the problem with Oil, is I think the market is getting half truths at best, and outright lies at worst.
Anyhow, if its political debate over energy policy, and even some bashing, go for it. That is what drew me to this site in the first place. But leave religion out of it, its the one thing that can make otherwise rational people divide amongst unrational reasons. And the last thing we need is more division.
I guess the thing I would like to know about the people of ToD is, if an Evangelical Christian who was a major entrepreneur into alternative energy solutions gained a popular following for President based upon his "good stewardship" platform, would those at the ToD be willing to stifle their objections to his faith in order to vote for a guy who would power us down? Its a tough question, I know, and its one I have begun wrestling with but in reverse. I'm fairly conservative on many view points and its seems many of the more enviro/alternative energy-friendly candidates are directly opposed to my stand on many other fronts.
Only if he was willing to tackle the real issue: overpopulation.
Reprogramming an individual is hard enough, ask any shrink, but reprogramming a group is hopeless.
Groups drift hapazardly along "cultural lines" and beside cults and mobs which are not of much interest for Peak Oil purposes no "reprogramming" seems possible along rational lines and within short time frames.
Cowboy appeal:
"They" hate your freedom to roam the range freely in your SUV. Diversify. Go flex fuel hybrid. America is about diversity. Flex fuel hybrid is patriotic. Only cowards cut and run on 100% gasoline. :-)
This paragraph seems to support the Administration's proposal that the President be granted the authority to gain control of the National Gaurd during times of national emergency. Why limit it to the Gaurd? Why not state and local police forces, private security companies and bouncers at local pubs?
"Whenever the President considers that unlawful obstructions, combinations, or assemblages, or rebellion against the authority of the United States, make it impracticable to enforce the laws of the United States in any State or Territory by the ordinary course of judicial proceedings, he may call into Federal service such of the militia of any State, and use such of the armed forces, as he considers necessary to enforce those laws or to suppress the rebellion."
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/uscode10/usc_sec_10_00000332----000-.html
There are other provisions under the Insurrection Act section of the Federal Code that essentially allow the [r]esident to do with what he pleases regarding the National Guard, Police or FOE lodge members; no further legislation is needed.....
Excess power to be sent back into the grid ...
Instead of thinking DC is going to solve things and it ain't, we might turn back to distributed power and unleash ourselves from the oil leviathan through innovation and action at the local level, reclaiming our responsibilities and thus our rights and dignity as citizens.
That's why the self sufficient/ survivalist kind of mindset appeals to me.
Individual responsibilty
independent families
cohesive communities
self sufficient localities
Sad that the self sufficient people are thought of as nut cases in our country and those that can't wean themselves from the consumption driven society are the "normal" folks.
c'est la vie,,,back to cleaning my guns
My bet for emergencies is on volontary cooperation within a well organized state with fairly active municipiality level democracy.
World war two is mostly forgotten but the local state learns from small disasters and will probably focus on what is realy important if there are any large ones in countries Sweden has close cultural ties with. Examples of learning is a small dam break leading to a recertification of all dams with lots of flood improvements to handle larger torrental rains and a small hurricane leading to a fairly massive rural cablification program.
Perhaps it will rain even more and we could get a realy strong storm that also topples 400 kV lines and then we will have to raise the bar and rebuild with better margins. Its the wise thing to do if it is affordable, if you dont do it you will get more unaffordable problems in the future. These problems are the easy ones, solvable with concrete, rebar and so on, the hard ones are the social ones.
Individual responsibilty
independent families
cohesive communities
self sufficient localities
is scary and counterproductive in a peak oil world?
Regards
Individual responsibility and multi level redundancy in resources and cooperation is of course good. More of that and creation of more social capital would be great anywhere in the world.
I don't mean to be argumentative or to beat this issue into the ground but I disagree that these things would not help in the short term chaos of a collapse. It seems to me that we will have chaos during a possible collapse in large part because there is so little individual responsibilty, family self sufficiency, community cohesiveness etc in America.
IMHO, a lot of chaos will be a result of the lack of these things in America.
There is a HUGE disconnect between people and their morals/attitudes and life back then as opposed to what passes now for 'culture' in this day and age.
Back then most folks , at least in the country, were honest and hard working and KEPT THEIR WORD. They worked together but were extremely self-reliant.
If a neighbor down the road asked for your help and you gave it but then didn't come help you in your need? He was worthless trash and discounted as such and shunned , as well he should have been.
You did right and were honest. That was then,,,this is now.
A world apart and slowly dying as a result.
When the men came home from the war? All hell broke loose. Most left the farms, few stayed. They wanted good times and free reins. My father and his 6 brothers who fought that war were exactly in that mold. They left my grandparents to slowly die on their farm all alone. Didn't care enough to help the ones who birthed and raised them. We then began the start of a huge downward spiral in our society.
The American Dream slowly died. It was fun while it lasted but its now gone and won't be coming back this way. Possibly not ever.
I viewed and lived the 50's,60's ,70's..... and now I am just 'hunkering down' and living the rest of it out.
Hard to find a bit of peace and tranquility but I am right back where it all started. A few miles down the road from that old farm where those 7 boys and 7 girls were born, raised and went off into the world of the American Dream. All are dead now but one who lives nearby. He will NEVER buy what is said about PEAK OIL. He is near to pass on anyway and could care less.
I see it and hear it well. I wish it were different and the ending were better. I applaud the efforts of those here. I spend a lot of my spare time reading the comments and hoping against hope that we just might squeak thru.
When your dreams turn into nothing but regrets, then you might as well be dead already anyway.....(someone else said this, I just like the truth of it).
Now to the store to buy another case of .22 ammo. Squirrel is something I will have to reaquire a taste for and let me say that I ate a lot of squirrel on that old 100 acre farm of my pappy's.
Closer coordination of cities with their hinterlands will be critical in a relocalized, powered-down post-peak society. Unfortunately, the current US system is poorly set up to encourage effective regional governance -- metropolitan area governance structures are usually weak, ad-hoc, and fragmented, and state boundaries rarely correspond to coherent economic or natural units, like city regions or watersheds. IMO peakers should be talking more about restructuring the American federal system into a network of coherent regions better adapted to the challenges ahead.
You posted this last Saturday
"Re: Pumping the fear factor out of oil
"By 2008 or 2009 you're going to have a lot more spare capacity in Saudi Arabia than there is now," said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank.
What continues to amaze me is that the cornucopians will admit that regions do peak and decline, but they assert that the world--which is the sum of discrete producing regions--will virtually never decline (or that the peak is decades away, worst case).
As I have said before, this is like saying that individual wells will peak and decline, but the field--the sum of individual wells--will never peak. "
Strangely enough, this 2004, 23 pages PDF from Deutsche Bank acknowledges Peak Oil, mentions ASPO on Page 9, and on page 10 : "The end-of-fossil hydrocarbons scenario is not therefore a doom-and-gloom picture painted by pessimistic end-of-the-world prophets, but a view of scarcity in the coming years and decades that must be taken seriously. Forward-looking politicians, company chiefs and economists should prepare for this in good time, to effect the necessary transitions as smoothly as possible"
http://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DE-PROD/PROD0000000000181487.PDF
DB Research has not much to do with the normal business, it seems.
Businessweek says $50 oil over next couple of years
http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/aug2006/pi20060818_059934.htm
Pickens mentioned at the end as a contrarian who may no longer be right b/c so many now agree with him.
http://allafrica.com/stories/200608220313.html
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/business/article_1192697.php/Hundreds_cram_banks_ahead_of_Zimbabw e_cash_deadline
They are lopping zeros off!
1. cats always land on their feet, and
2. jellied toast always lands jelly-side down on the floor.
Therefore: you strap a piece of jellied toast jelly-side up to the back of a cat and toss him from some height. Since he will try to land on his feet, but the toast will counter-act that by trying to land on the jelly, the cat will revolve in the air for an indefinite time hovering above the floor. You simply tie a generator to the cat's tail and ... the end of the energy crisis is in sight.
You need to consult a patent attorney right away to stake your patent claims for the "Perpetual Energy System Comprising Feline with Jellied Grain Plate Attached Thereto" --LOL
I was sucessful in those endeavors finally.
Tools were a hayloft and rope.
If they wouldn't hide what they do when we aren't watching(in the gravel in my driveway) then we wouldn't dislike them so, but they know if we saw them at it that we would certainly not be amused and seek revenge.
Personally I prefer Jack Russells for mouse control.Plus they don't try to hide when they are about their biz or scratch dirt over it so you get it on your back whilst crawling under the car/pickup/tractor/haybine/whatever.
But it doesn't work for magnetic fields. If electrons are stationary, they won't feel any force at all from a magnetic field. Thus they won't respond in any way to cancel out the magnetic field. Shielding sensitive equipment from a static magnetic field is not so easy!
You're right of course, mu-metal is used to shield constant magnetic fields, because of its permeability. But that has nothing to do with eddy currents. It must be electrons moving at some level, of course, but more down at the atomic level where the magnetism of the material comes from.
http://howthingswork.virginia.edu/page1.php?QNum=555
"Mu metal attracts flux lines. It draws flux lines through itself so that if you were to wrap yourself in a layer of mu metal, any magnetic flux lines that would have gone through you (and thus exposed you to magnetic fields) will go through the mu metal instead. Mu metal and similar alloys are used routinely to shield objects that can't tolerate magnetic fields."
In other words the property of high magnetic permeability is what draws the magnetic field lines to the Mu Metal. Magnetic fields can be perfectly blocked using superconductor materials (the Meisner effect) due to induced currents which are a kind of "eddy current". However, you're right, the term eddy current is specifically used to describe what happens when metal moves in a magnetic field.
Are not such digressions likely to discourage casual readers of TOD as much as religious bickering?
The nature of the Oil Drum to this viewer seems technically oriented which has an appeal. If the conversation goes way over my head, I glaze my eyes over and move on, but if anything it gives me goals to go out and learn more about what is being said so that the next time its brought up, I can at least keep pace, and maybe even contribute.
Like teaching a kid the game of chess. At first the kid is fighting a curve as you use various strategies to beat him, but pretty soon he is whooping your backside with your own strategies, or even better new and/or improvised ones.
Sometimes the way to grow in knowledge is to get in over your head, and then grow out of it.
Funny how the cornucopianism filters out the need for very real change in our personal lives, in our culture of consumption, and in our childish magical belief in techo-religion.
I do think that calling our economic system "Smithian" is quite innacurate, though. Adam Smith could not have foreseen today's economic system, which is more accurately called "corrupt crony corporatism" or simply "Fascism."
Whatever terms we use to describe the economic status quo, the need for accute responsiveness to the changes in our habitat is so obvious that it is tough to see how even corporatists can be blind to it.
I hope to see more accurate coverage of the resource depletion and global climate change issues, as well as population overshoot -- but I'm not holding my breath.
beggar,
My apologies to those who better understand what Adam Smith was striving for in his works. It is just that there is no word to describe our "Wealth of Tunnel Visions" system of governance. Each "speciality" focuses only on its own area of expertise. It can't see outside its own sand box.
When I called the Sci Am authors cornucopian, I was perhaps going over board. Each is a "specialist" in his own area of expertise, but none seemed to sense the global ebb and flow of our human governance systems and how those will impede all those wonderful Wedge Solutions that "we" as a species are supposed to undertake in order to halt the tsunami of ecological disasters and resource depletions that is heading our way.
I agree that Adam Smith could not have fairly foreseen the parasitic life forms (i.e., the "corrupt crony corporatism" and bigger yet, the state-run corporate enterprises) that mutated and took control over our non-negotiable way of living.
As for even the "corporatists" being blind to the need for accute responsiveness to the destruction of our habitat, that does not at all surprise me. Your/my sense of what is "habitat" is not the same as their sense of what constitutes habitat. Listen to their language. For them, "habitat" is low interest rates and abundant investment opportunities. It is all about reaping new fortunes of cash in coming years. The concepts of resource limitiations and population overload do not enter into the language and frameworks of their mental models.
The corporatists can no easier see Peak Oil, Global Warming or Collapse of Complex Civilization than can a fish see the water in which he swims. Their MBA-honed sensors are not equipped to detect these under currents. If GDP is forever growing and $ROI is meeting "expectations", then what more can one one wish for? The state of our civilization, as far as they are concerened, is great and growing ever greater.
Smith was a rare thing -- a classical liberal. Very, very few of those people around today in the US political system, and they are most definitely not found in the party of business (GOP).
But, you're take on why we seem so unable to confront these problems is spot on -- the system of incentives we as individuals face doesn't make it conducive for us to confront them as individuals. We're stuck in a collective prisoners' dilemma.
That is a paraphrase of a discussion I had over the weekend with a bright engineering student (a college undergraduate). He is a genius, just like his father (not me, somebody much smarter). He's taking thermodynamics, fluid mechanics, etc. at a top top US university this year. Smart enough to know that all the electrical engineering work (EE) is going to be out-sourced from the USA and that is not the career path to pursue for an American engineering student.
But what then? Nuclear engineering? Biotech? Is that the future? He was not aware of PO although his genius father knows too well that I'm a PO freak. (Genius father does not accept the PO hypothesis BTW) I tried to point out to young Einstein that among his calculus formulations he should step out to a space borne view and consider that the Earth as a finite sphere. That struck home as a view he had never considered before. I asked him to devout his genius abilities to solving the world's big problems-- energy depletion, CO2 pollution. Said he would think about it.
Anyway, that is digressing from what I wanted to say: What do you want to be when you grow up? How do you answer that question for a young person considering a career path? What immediately comes to mind?
- doctor
- lawyer
- financial analyst
- engineer / scientist
- other "professional" speciality?
Do you see how you (we all) are pre-programmed to answer the question with a fixed set of answers? We can't think outside our own fish bowl --our self imposed box.What should we be telling young people about the future? Are there words in our language for some of the "specialities" that will be needed in our near-future world of scarce and shrinking resources?
I thought on it a bit more after my conversation with young Einstein. If only I had advised him to become an "Energy and Materials Resource Allocation Specialist" (EMRAS) in his future career. That would be something outside the traditional box of electrical (EE), mechanical (ME) or chemical engineering (ChemE). Why didn't I have that ready as a talking point? Too bad.
20 years is a life time for them.
So tell them PO is coming within a decade or so and they think that it is a half a life time away. Why worry now? Besides, everything is progressing so rapidly now a days. The "Singularity" will surely arrive well before PO has a chance to breathe its tempest of doom upon us. Technology will save us. Complexity will save us. The race belongs to the young and swift.
If you are talking with my daughter your intentions better be honorable. :)
If one thinks the mega corp will be dead or grow in power - that will pick what way to go.
If one feels the government controls "it all" via taxation and creating protected markets (thus making sure you make a profit) that will pick your choice.
If one wants to be their own boss with employees or work for someone else - that also influnces the choice.
Heli-ski guide ! ! ! !
How old am I?
24
What is my degree?
Physics
What do I really do for a living?
Software for the electricity grid control room
And I'm gonna quit it all to ski full time. After all, I'm in the last generation that will know snowy winters. And helicopters sure as hell aren't gonna be used for skiing much longer. But as an energy industry insider, I can tell you that the grid is going down for sure. You have no idea how f*cked up it is here.
Since you are an insider--care to comment on Duncan's Olduvai Gorge Theory?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
A) Systems were designed and programmed a long time ago by very smart people that are not around anymore,(since maintenance is not that interesting). You are not sure anymore exactly how and why it works.
b) You can't replace it from scratch - all you can do is keep on patching it, half expecting your patches to mess it up.
c) What else?
At your age, I would advise you to follow your dream...
I don't remember there being much TOD comment on the story from a week ago "Feds Target Powergrid Congestion"
http://www.casperstartribune.net/articles/2006/08/10/news/regional/fe005aecf7056d3b872571c40001d7ae. txt
With thoughts that our best future course may be to increase electricity by way of wind and solar, and power more transportation on the grid, along with the limitations of declining fossil fuels, which would be the smartest way for us to be heading? 1-trying to regionalize our grid or, 2-work to improve our national grid as in the above article? It seems to me, that we'd be better off regionalizing most aspects of our infrastructure in poweringdown, but I'm no grid expert like some of you.
Probably the best thing to get from education now is resourcefulness.
to get a good idea go watch the mark steel lecture about him.
To put it lightly he would be appalled at what people have done in the name of him and his book.
I think that is a constant with all great men in history. (Christ, Mohamed, Gandhi, The founding father of the USA ) We humans twist good ideas into horrific perversions.
'the road to hell is paved with good intentions'
My evaluation: The technologies are here; they work. In regard to governments, I cannot imagine effective global cooperation to attack successfully the problem of putting too much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This failure of imagination may be a personal failing due to age and nonuse of hallucinagenic drugs, however;-)
Fear not. Government help is on the way. Why just this morning President Bush endorsed ethanol as the way to diversify our economy away from total reliance on oil:
"We encourage consumption through different purchasing habits, like hybrid vehicles. We have encouraged the spread of ethanol, as an alternative to crude oil."
But if you think Bush is all alone on this, here is the Democratic "political" take & give on things:
I was a member of a centrist political blog a while back, when Hillary suggested going back to a 55 mph speed limit. I have never seen so many reasonable people go completely nuts. They wanted to burn her at the stake. At the same time howling about high gas prices.
- 55 m.p.h. speed limit
- Gasoline tax gradually increasing to bring U.S. prices in line with those in Europe.
- "Feebates" on cars where big heavy monsters carry a hefty tax that is used to finance a substantial rebate of some thousands of dollars to encourage people to buy new cars that get better than 40 miles per gallon.
- Alan Drake's eminently logical proposals for moving people by rail and also electrifying railways. (This one may not be dead on arrival, but the movement is slow as molasses pours outdoors in January. People should be rioting in the streets in favor of implementation of Alan's ideas.)
- An end to zoning codes that prevent minihouses or mobile homes or people living on their boats when they are out of water.
O.K., now you folks fill in the next five.The level of disruption caused by high gas prices obviously has a long way to go before people start to join the dots !
The first two wedges are based on efficieny and conservation, the best place to start.
The articles clearly state the sense of urgency around FF consumption and GW.
In typical Scientific American fashion, the articles cover specific topics. You are correct that a lot of social, economic and technical issues are not addresses. I felt this most in the article by Jeffrey Sachs, one of my heros. On one page he lists the four ways to lower fertility. Great ideas, but implementation is not discussed.
The Sci Am article on keeping Carbon in Check sets forth a bunch of time versus scale of implementation "wedges". They say we have 50 years (until year 2056) to get these in place or else we are toast.
Nowhere was the option of "reducing vehicle use," promoted. The article did not mention light rail. It did not hint that there is a connection between land use patterns and driving habits. Option 2 "change how we use our vehicles," obliquely gets at the concept of reducing vehicle use (without using the "R" word), but this option wasn't really discussed, execpt to note that VW is developing some kind of "urban" car that does better in city driving. Beyond that, Options 1 and 4 overlap a great deal.
The article is mostly a rehash of the same old cornucopian idea that we'll be able to continue our energy-hungry lifestyle with different fuels - complete with the requisite Armory Lovins quote.
Nepal rolls back oil price rise after protests
I wonder if the detrito-terrorists know that they are actually helping to reduce local future fuel demand by burning all those vehicles. IMO, it would be better to go ahead with market-pricing and let them burn all the vehicles they want to quickly re-equilibrate the local supply-demand curve. If they burn every vehicle in Nepal, fuel will then decline in price, but bicycles and shoe leather will get quite expensive. Their choice.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Net Oil Exports Revisited: The No Down Payment Disaster and a Proposed Triage Plan
by Jeffrey J. Brown
Net Oil Exports Revisited
I've written several articles and posts based on "Khebab's" excellent technical work. This was my first article, posted in January, 2006, on The Oil Drum:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/27/14471/5832
Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters
My concluding statement from this article: "It would seem from this case that these factors could interact this year produce to an unprecedented--and probably permanent--net oil export crisis."
I thought that it would be interesting to compare the decline since December in world crude + condensate production to the decline in production from the top 10 net oil exporters (based on the 2004 list of top exporters).
As of the May, 2006 EIA numbers, the world is down 1.3% since December, an annual decline rate of 3.1% per year, but the top 10 oil exporters are down 3.0%, an annual decline rate of 7.2%.
Note that consumption is growing quite rapidly in most of the exporting countries, and note that in most cases domestic consumption is satisfied before oil is exported. In the captioned article, I showed, using my "Export Land" model, how a 25% drop in oil production and a 20% increase in consumption (over a five year period) would lead to a 70% drop in net oil exports.
I estimate that net oil exports from the top exporters are probably down by 4% to 5% (over a five month period), an annual decline rate of as much as 12% per year, which suggests that exports from the top exporters are falling about three to four times faster than world oil production is falling
As I have been relentlessly pointing out, I think that we are looking at a series of bidding cycles for declining net oil export capacity, with the oil going to the high bidders and with the losers having to reduce consumption. Leanan, on The Oil Drum, has documented several case histories of poorer countries having to reduce consumption. Soon, the developed and rapidly developing countries will be bidding against each other, instead of bidding against regions like Africa.
However, we are beginning to see clear signs of stress here in the US, among poorer households and among financially overstitched homeowners. Consider some recent numbers from the 8/21/06 issue of Barron's.
"The No-Money-Down Disaster"
Lon Witter, Guest Column, 8/21/06 Barron's
Summary:
* 32.6% of new US mortgages and home equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6% in 2000
* 43% of first-time home buyers in 2005 put no money down
* 15.2% of 2005 buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth
* 10% of all home owners with mortgages have no equity in their homes
* $2.7 trillion dollars in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007
At the end of 2003, 1% of Washington Mutual's (WaMu's) option ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) loans were in negative amortization (the borrowers were borrowing more money each month, not even paying enough to pay the monthly interest charge in full). At the end of 2005, 47% of WaMu's option ARM's were in negative amortization (55% by value of the loans).
WaMu is booking these negative amortization payments as earnings. In prior times, loans where borrowers were making less than the interest payments would be classified as non-performing loans. In January-March, 2005, WaMu booked $25 million in earnings from negative amortization payments. In the same period in 2006, WaMu booked $203 million in earnings from these payments. These borrowers are increasing their mortgage balances as property values have started falling, so the default risk on these loans is extremely high.
Mr. Witter estimates that a simple revision to the mean suggests a 30% drop in residential property values in the US over the next three years. This is without considering in the effect of further increases in energy prices.
A Proposed Triage Plan
I believe that vast expanses of American Suburbia are going to become virtually abandoned in the years ahead. Alan Drake has noted that a good deal of suburbia was so poorly constructed that a lot of it is biodegradable. Alan has outlined how we can go back to what we used to have: electric trolley cars connected to electric light rail lines: http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html
CBS Sunday Morning, on 8/20/06, had a segment on "tiny houses." They profiled a home designer and builder who specialized in building very small functional homes of about 100 square feet. You can find more information on his website: http://www.tumbleweedhouses.com
What this builder has realized, and what millions of Americans are just beginning to also realize, is that anything over 100 square feet or so per person is not a necessity; it is optional consumption, a want, instead of a need.
The US is not Switzerland, but Alan Drake has described how Swiss per capita oil consumption in the Second World War was about 0.15% of current US per capita oil consumption. They did it primarily by electrifying their transportation system.
I propose a sort of triage operation: "tiny" homes and multifamily housing along electric mass transit lines. In my opinion, it is the only way that we can preserve some semblance of a civilized society. The suburbs are, by and large, a lost cause.
Jeffrey J. Brown is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area.
His e-mail address is westexas@aol.com
So the way to go is to abandon 80% of the current "suburbs" and rebuild along the current rail lines masses of 100sq ft "homes"?!?!?!
Come on!
In America we call a 10'x10' home a jail cell!!
This type of thinking is completely ludicrous. It will not sell. Period. End of story.
There's no way it's more economical to replace all of that suburban housing then it is to add new light rail lines, and upgrade the fuel efficiency of vehicles.
Far more likely: we'll cram more people into the homes that currently exist in cities or along train lines.
My grandparents raised six children in a three-bedroom house they built themselves. Their only daughter slept on the floor in the hallway.
But they did have a indoor bathroom.
There's no doubt in my mind that two people don't need a 3500 square foot house.
I think a well designed 800-1000 square feet home can be perfect for a couple. An outdoor space that can be used in nice weather is essential too.
Older larger homes will probably become family centers - where several generations live together.
In Boston, the trend to smaller living is in full force. Developers routinely split buildings into a number of smaller units. The absolute low end of this seems to be about 300 sq ft which can work for a single person in the city.
My stepson and his girlfriend have been looking into apartments. He can't see the logic in throwing away $1,000/month on rent and utilities, so we've been discussing expanding our house upwards.
From the local paper:
http://www.altoonamirror.com/Letters/articles.asp?articleID=4099
Same ol, same ol. Yes to smokestacks, No to wind turbines.
Actually, the home profiled on the CBS segment had a bathroom/shower. The "bedroom" was in the attic, so the effective square footage probably did not include the "upstairs" bedroom.
In any case, as Jim Kunstler has said, changed circumstances are going to compel Americans to change the way they live, whether they like SUV's and McMansions or not.
IMO, American are beginning to realize that "Cheap is the new chic." I predict that conspicuous consumption is increasingly going to be seen as stupid and as socially unacceptable. I predict an increasing stampede from rapidly depreciating McMansions.
However, the key point is that anything bigger than the minimum square footage necessary for every day activities is a "want" and not a "need."
Think of all the people that live in very small living spaces for months at at time in sailboats.
Curious that no one had any comment on the oil export numbers. Rapidly declining oil exports are going to kill off the suburbs faster than anything else.
Silence speaks louder. I think very few here will argue declining exports. It's simple logic really.
RE: Declining Exports
The only thing I would argue is that at some point the "available oil" will become so valuable they won't be available for export at any price. Probably sooner rather then later.
Do you supply the enemy with the weapons to destroy you?
The 1% doctrine Kuwait is talking about sounds pretty smart to me - assuming you can defend your borders. Kuwait has already proven that it can't so I doubt you'll see that policy actually come to fruition.
There's already a sizeable constituency there for decent 100 sq ft housing with rational transport options. People who currently drive long distances in old inefficient cars to low-paid jobs, i.e. who have very short-term sustainability problems with rising gas prices.
Add in a growing army of mortgage defaulters. I think you're on the right track.
But the critics are right too : it's un-american, and not negotiable.
Regarding no one commenting on export numbers...trust me, we read your posts, study them, and look forward to your updates. These declines are impressive. Thankyou, as always.
As for the tiny houses--I have been aware of these small houses for some time. They advertise some of them in the back of Dwell magazine, which promotes prefab homes. I, too, have considered how they may have a future in a powerdown. If people go back to organic farming on small tracts of land, I picture something similar popping up all over pieces of land, say one house to 4 acres or so. They'd be particularly perfect for single persons. I believe they can be marketed as prefabs because the cost of shipping them is relatively low since they are so small. Yet, building them locally according to local energy needs would probably make the most sense. We may have an explosion of locally built small straw bale houses. They are extremely energy efficient and look like cute European cottages.
TLS- Am quite looking forward to the post you mentioned last month about Jay Hanson's visit. Any sense on when it'll appear on the site?
The ones that are 10x10 and smaller need outhouses.
It seems they're still banking on demanding a 'park-like atmosphere' of cardboard McMansions as the wave of the future.
revenue from McMansions rather than from
folks trying to live in 100 sq feet ..
Gotta pay the pensions of all those retired
civil servants ..
Triff ..
This is unfortunate--just more of the infinite growth paradigm. Consider how many McMansions have walk-in closets with more aggregate sq. footage than these tumbleweed houses. Years ago in Phx, they offered a public tour of a local monster-mansion: the master closet was so BIG that they installed a commercial dry-cleaning mechanized clothes rack! The owner sits down and spools up the desired suit, dress, shoes, etc.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
And, or course, they plan on the usual couple plus one kid in the house, to yield a minimum house size of 2250 sq ft.
A classic tenet of reward is risk. Risk seems to have disappered from the vernacular. Hedge funds specialize in risk and they now control over $2T in "debt based assets." The house is shifting in the wind.
FYI, I discovered last night and this morning when I was catching up on local news that the flight from the outer suburbs here as all ready started. Over the past couple of months, property values there have tanked and foreclosure rates have shot up. Home prices in the desirable areas of town have increased significantly as those folks try to move back in.
Let the infill begin!
I agree.
It is imperative that we differentiate between what we want and what we need. As I said up the thread, think of all the people that spend months, sometimes years, in sailboats. Think of paying cash for a very small, energy efficient housing unit, close to a mass transit line.
"Wants" are going bye-bye.
Even on The Oil Drum, I think that most people are still in denial regarding the effects of a rapid decline in net oil exports. What is going to reverse the trend, when all four of the world's largest producing fields are almost certainly declining?
As I have said about a thousand times regarding my ELP recommendations, if I am wrong, you will have less debt, more money in the bank and a lower stress way of life.
Even though I read peak oil sites like TOD, I can't even say that our lifestyle change is necessarily even related to the more pessimistic oil depletion scenarios that may lie ahead.
In that way, I am probably an example of the denial that you note.
But put simply, it's just great to live a simpler, less consumptive lifestyle. The more things you own, the more they own you.
And financially we're in good shape because we spend only a fraction of the money we make. The housing bubble has also meant that owners are in effect subsidizing us to live where we do (rent has not even kept up with inflation over the last five years, meaning the real cost of renting our place has been declining during that entire time).
Even if Yergin et al. are right (are you kidding) and peak does not occur for 25 years and turns out to be a gentle "undulation", less consumption is still a great lifestyle. At this rate, we'll be able to live on the interest of our savings in 15 years. (And no, those savings are not parked in a bank earning USD.)
And if the pessimists are right (much more likely), we'll have an easier time weathering the turbulence, because we are already accoustomed to having much, much less.
Almost nothing in life is a win-win. But this one is.
But thing I will say, is that lifestyle change, even a voluntary one like ours/the one you advocate, westexas, takes time. It was hard giving up old things (even useless old things!!) and old habits. We're still not where we want to be on consumption. It's really been a war to change my habits. A fulfilling thing, but still difficult, I hate to admit.
I fear that the only thing that will truly force the necessary changes will be higher prices. But, on second thought, maybe that's nothing to fear. . .
I nominate your post as the "Post of the Month." (No such thing, but sounds good anyway.)
Basically, I'm in the Jim Rogers camp. We've started to put a good amount of money into commodity ETFs like DBC, GSG, and a little USO. Those are volatile short-term, but we don't care. I believe that these can perform decently while also being good inflation hedges.
I worry a lot about stocks, but we've got some money in Canada, China, and some emerging markets. I think that some developing countries will do ok amongst steadily rising oil costs (Vietnam comes to mind, though investing there is not yet easy, and some sectors in those countries will get hosed). We also own a few energy stocks, though none of Big Oil, and all of the major railroads in North America. We have a few alternative energy stocks. (We've done well with MEMC, if you want to call it "alternative energy") But I think a lot of that stuff is risky, and I don't know what I'm doing enough to toss a lot of money there. We also have a little gold and silver.
A fellow Brooklynite, I suspect.
I spend a lot of time pondering how NYC will/would be affected by an oil peak. I own a place and worry about propery values a bit. But it's heartening (at least for my personal situation) to see that previous post -- that while property values are falling in far-flung 'burbs, they are still rising in choice locations. Assuming the social fabric doesnt disintegrate, B'lyn is good place to be, I think.
Did anyone see that New Yorker story a year ago, that New York City is the most energy-efficient locale in the USA? Stacked boxes and public transport (like the L), after all.
I too think that dense urban locations will do well. But maybe that's my own hope. Random thought: Does anyone think that location could become the substitute for the size of one's home, in terms of status symbols? In other words, instead of a 10,000 sq ft McMansion, one's address would become the new status symbol?
Maybe that's wishful thinking. It seems like almost-uselessness will always be a status symbol. . . e.g., a car that can go 0-60mph in 4 seconds, or houses with twice as many 10x10 bathrooms as regular occupants, or big phat diamonds. . .
Ah, the elevated -- not the L which runs across 14th St to Williamsberg in Brooklyn.
Excellent post, in any case. It wouldn't surprise me if property values in densely populated cities do very well.
On the other hand, 1 br apts have been going for 900k recently in neighborhoods like the upper west side. Hard to think that's sustainable post-peak.
How big is your house?
The smallest that my wife will let me get away with.
I have a theory. A house represents a compromise--between a male, who wants something 50% smaller, and the female, who wants something 50% bigger.
I want to sell and rent an apartment in a New Urbanism community--a Kunstler Kommune. My spouse does not want to rent. She would buy a townhouse, but the square foot costs are huge (I don't want to buy). So we are staying put for now. We are pretty close in, so I don't anticipate a big drop in property values, but we shall see.
In any case, I have a sneaking suspicion and I am not popular with a lot of wives and teenagers right now.
Food could become much harder to come by than housing.
OTOH, our community has 14 or 15 public gardens. I've got 25'x 40' <g> about 2 miles from the house (10 minutes by bike).
10feet^2 = roughly 9 square metres.
In porous border, GOP sees an opening
I'm reminded of Jared Diamond's comments on "overcrowded lifeboats":
There is certainly a lot of redundancy around, but I don't think one can really repeat oneself often enough on this issue.
For those who have a longer attention span, I suggest reading Cleveland and Kaufmann's article entitled Why the Bush Oil (Energy) Policy will fail. [pdf file].
Over the past year, consumer price inflation has clocked in at 4.15%. Producer price inflation (finished goods) has been a similar 4.12%. But if you look at intermediate goods, we're currently at an inflation rate of 8.83%. That's the most abrupt widening in the spread between intermediate and finished goods since the 1973-74 oil crisis. Moreover, if we look at points in history when prices for intermediate goods have outpaced prices for finished goods over a 6-month period, we've also seen, on average, an acceleration in the PPI finished goods inflation rate over the following 6 months.
http://www.hussmanfunds.net/wmc/wmc060821.htm
Regards
Add to the mix that China is getting uncomfortable holding such large foreign currency reserves. Ponder what happens to the value of the US$ and how inflation may run if China starts trading their currency reserves for commodities in earnest.
From Forbes:
"China has a problem that seems enviable: It's sitting on a mountain of cash. It has amassed nearly $1 trillion in foreign currencies in just a few years by becoming the exporter of choice for all kinds of manufactured goods, which it produces at a far lower cost than would be possible in more developed economies."
http://www.forbes.com/home/currencies/2006/08/19/china-reserves-yuan-cx_jc_0821china.html
I think the deconstruction of the dollar would happen QUICKLY though. Once one country ACTS and dumps dollars en mass, the world would follow as those holding seek to minimize losses. Who wants to be left holding the bag? It's going to be us, but if the dollar were truly to be "dumped" en mass, I would think our leaders would KNOW the totally f-cked nature of the US financial position and say ok bitches, we declare bankruptcy anyway!
Think about it, the ramifications of losing the dollar as reserve currency may as well mean it no longer exists b/c if people leave it, we got nothin, so what's to lose by declaring bankruptcy once we've reached that point? I kinda like the whole fresh start part of it.
Condi Rice vs Hillary in 2008--overall elite goal is to radically polarize the country: like AMLO vs Calderon in Mexico is doing now. My two cents.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I think that Bush is just hoping to run the clock out to January, 2009 without World War III, and/or something like the Great Depression II breaking out. I don't think he is going to make it.
BTW, if you haven't read "Fiasco," it's a good book. The latest issue of Foreign Policy Magazine makes many of the same points. It's bad enough that the Neocons have neofascist tendencies; our problem is that we have largely incompetent neofascists.
The inability of Rumsfeld, Cheney & Co. to learn from mistakes is something out of a book on abnormal psychology. To see similar instances of egregiously stupid groupthink, one has to go back to the days of Robert Strange McNamara and the claque around LBJ.
Pehaps being involved in a losing quagmire type of war simply shuts down major portions of the brain--some kind of physiological/chemical response to maintain self-esteem in the face of prolonged abject and tragic failures.
Bush thought he had surrounded himself with smart people who would tell him the correct things to do. Oddly enough, I think Bush knows that he is not the smart one in the family, but he thinks he can recognize character and intelligence in others. Alas, he is quite wrong about this--and lacks the courage to admit mistakes and to fire his claque.
I think you underestimate how insane he is. The rumor mill at work says he is chomping at the bit to go into Iran. An the Iranians are nuts enough to give him an excuse. Isn't August 22 the mystically significant day where Iran is going to reply to the European nuclear proposal?
http://plancksconstant.org/blog1/2006/08/august_22_end_of_the.html
Any other takers on my bet? :-)
As I said if China dumps the dollar then all bets seem off, but if things happen "on the margins" people just adjust expectations and stare in disbelief that it can continue.
- they actually believe their crappy view is what America should look like in which case they leave happy thinking they have set things right and don't care anymore.
- they don't plan on giving up power in two years.
- they plan on having someone else they can control in office in two years(jeb bush and/or conny rice? anyone?)
also taking into account the 'noble lie' concept and a little understanding on the neo-conservative philosophy i have to say from the most likely to the least it's50% #3, 40% #2, and 10% #1.
Kerry, Clinton, Wes Clark, Edwards, Richardson, Feingold, etc. etc. ...
I'm a Wes Clark guy, myself ...
Might not be a country, it could be a non-state actor, such as a George Soros or some large banking cartel. Hell, such an agent might not even do it intentionally.
cfm in Gray, ME
This has been discussed in another thread.
http://postcards.ucomics.com/send/?uc_comic=poc&uc_full_date=20060821&site_ref=ucomics
Bruce from Chicago (soon in Toledo Illinois)
What pipeline problem?
But Matt Simmons has harsh words for BP:
Lord of Cheaping It Out
This is a prime example of net energy. The Bloomberg article linked up top had numerous mentions of how much it will cost to provide adequate maintenance on a large and intricate oil infrastructure that is getting older. This all will take energy as well as dollars. Where will this energy come from? Via higher prices it will be taken away from other sectors of the world economy, leaving less of the oil coming through the repaired pipeline for non-energy endeavors.
Applied Materials enters market with acquisition in July
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/08/18/BUGU0KDCCV350.DTL
United Kingdom: Farmers to 'plant' mini wind turbines
http://www.climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=59622
SHANGHAI - China's Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. said on Friday it expects rising prices for solar power cells will start to decline as soon as next year, fuelling demand for solar energy.
http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/37743/story.htm
Rat
Hah, the financial boys, and they are almost all boys, have gone from Alan Greenspan pontificating two years ago how unlike the 70s oil price rises have limited impact on our "new economy" to today recognizing that go-go growth can't be sustained at $70 barrel. So now we get the Journal trying to talk the price down.
Well if you have a sick sense of humor, this all infinitely entertaining.
"Cmon, BURST dammit! I need to fuel up all my limos STAT!"
http://www.survivalblog.com
The implied answer is cellulosic ethanol.
You have to go the ASPO USA website and The Review section to subscribe for free.
http://www.aspo-usa.com/PeakOilReview.cfm
I am in the process of registering for the ASPO USA Oct. conference in Boston. Figure I can take Amtrak from Phila.
I just heard something that sounded very strange on CNBC. Oil closed up $1.31 at $72.45 for the September contract which expires tomorrow. But the reason the NYMEX correspondent said was Iraq which will continue to enrich uranium, and news from BP that its Texas City Refinery will not meet its expected import quota.
Now what the hell does that mean? Anyone? Anyone? Bhuler? Anyone? At any rate I thinks this BP news came in about five minutes before the close. Because that's when the price of oil suddenly jumped by about sixty cents.
My guess is they are short because the crude has to be sent to California instead because of the Prudhoe shutdown.
A BP spokesman declined to discuss refinery operations,
citing company policy against doing so.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
From the Environmental Working Group newsletter...
Iraq? Iran? Who cares!
Probably that it really happened but in a spiritual sense.
Could this be the start of the Mexican revolution? Here is another link for another press perspective.
------------
OAXACA, Mexico - The picturesque colonial city of Oaxaca sank further into chaos on Monday as protesters armed with machetes, pipes and clubs seized 12 private radio stations, cut off highways, and blockaded bus terminals and newspaper offices.
The smell of uncollected garbage and tires burning at barricades hung over the city, a popular tourist destination, and some businesses ran short of water after demonstrators refused to allow water trucks into central Oaxaca.
About 3,000 leftists and striking teachers wielding machetes and clubs marched through the city, demanding punishment for an early morning assault in which unidentified gunmen shot up a state-owned radio station that has been occupied since Aug. 1.
Also Monday, the demonstrators - a mix of striking teachers trade unionists and leftists - cut off all the main avenues in Oaxaca's center, burned several vehicles and blockaded the offices of two newspapers, two bus companies and a television station.
-----------------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
The Chiapas election is too close too call--expect more protests--this time from the far right! Don't forget there are 60,000 armed Federales nearby.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?