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DrumBeat: July 14, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 14, 2006 - 9:30am
Oil prices strike record high above $78 per barrel
"We are certainly in uncharted territory," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "I wouldn't be surprised if $80 is attained soon with this slew of geopolitical events in a tight market."..."We haven't even taken into account a potential hurricane in the United States, so getting to $80 and beyond this summer seems quite inevitable," Shum said. "But if these Middle East events somehow get resolved, prices could also drop sharply."
Can't make the trip to Italy for ASPO-5? Check out the ASPO-5 Live Blog.
See the new and improved version of Westexas' article about Daniel Yergin Day at Energy Bulletin.
An Early Retirement For The Hydrogen Fuel Cell:
At last weekends Lucerne Fuel Cell Conference, which is a highly respected technical conference, Ulf Bossel, the organizer, made a pretty signinficant announcement: the European PEMFC Forum series will not be continued because hydrogen fuel will never contribute to a sustainable world. Instead they will focus on phosphoric acid fuel cells, molten carbonate fuel cells and solid oxide fuel cells which "can meet the challenges of a sustainable future".
Supermarkets and Service Stations Now Competing for Grain, according to Lester Brown.
China to allow foreign exploration in key oil, gas blocks:
China has traditionally limited foreign access to its onshore oil and gas resources but as demand for energy to power its booming economy has grown, it has opened the door and in March Petrochina signed a deal with Total of France on exploration in the Erdos Basin.Will new pipeline ease the West's energy woes?
The 1,094-mile Caspian oil duct, inaugurated Thursday in Turkey, may not be as tangle-free as America had hoped...."Increasingly, Russia is dictating its terms," says Necdet Pamir, an energy expert with the Eurasia Strategic Research Center in Ankara.
A Russian monster arrives, and its name is Rosneft.
Pentagon and Peak Oil: A Military Literature Review
Uganda: Power Outages Fueling City Fires
President Clinton says he was never briefed on peak oil.
Santa Barbara Prepares for Peak Oil
Dreamliners and Peak Oil - designing airplanes for energy efficiency.
Peak Oil and Energy Resources - a ten-minute intro to peak oil.
3 ways to win from the oil glut:
Believe it or not, there's an excess of oil -- but it's an excess of hard-to-refine heavy sour crude.
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
Following is a post I made yesterday. I am beginning to wonder if oil exporters are going to increasingly turn away from the US market in favor of exporting their oil to importers that have better quality and/or lower cost goods and services to offer in exchange for oil.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=latin_america&sid=a_H7VhJXt_6I
Venezuela's Oil Sales to U.S. Drop as Chavez Sends More to Asia
The Venezuela story is (mostly) not related to my Export Land model, but there are three points:
(1) It does raise the question of whether oil, in a declining net export capacity environment, is truly fungible;
(2) Note that Chavez is transporting his oil seven times farther than the distance to the US Gulf Coast. This effectively reduces net export capacity because of the greater amount of oil locked up in transit;
(3) Combined with gas station story, it makes one wonder if Chavez is gradually withdrawing from the US market. Given China's low cost manufacturing capability, if I were Chavez I would prefer to trade with China, versus the US, even with the higher transportation cost.
Good question. I've asked TOD before how much oil is traded on the spot market (as opposed to fixed price long term contract) but no-one seems to know. Chavez also has his Petro-Caribe initiative which offers oil to Caribbean nations at less than (market) cost. I think you're right, this trend will accelerate.
My continuing advice: ELP (Economize; Localize; Produce).
I very strongly suggest that you get yourself on the nondiscretionary side of the US economy ASAP.
The difference is of course that Westexas' advice will actually help you.
- a 19th century style trading post
- an 18th century style tavern
These are what I have, up and running--and even legal!From friends and family, I already have plenty of customers.
My most lucrative business is consulting about survival supplies.
e.g., I can provide a $100 package for college students, a $1,000 package for young couples and all the way up to the "Fortress Package" at $300,000.
- What a person already has and knows.
- What is most needed.
- What will be of value no matter what happens.
I offer money-back guarantees.Since 1962, nobody has ever asked for their money back. Also during and before, nobody has asked.
I do it because I like people, and I make no money at it that I do not give to the Nature Conservancy.
The only boat builder in history who finished on time.
A major reason that the offical US WW II museum is a mile from my home on Andrew J. Higgins Blvd..
To insure adequate materials in case of war, he bought the entire 1941 Phillipines mahogany harvest. All of which ended up on various invasion beaches.
A major reason that the offical US WW II museum is a mile from my home on Andrew J. Higgins Blvd..
This was a quote, by a disgruntled grocery shopper, shown on CNBC this morning. She said that if you go into a Safeway with a $100 bill, you come out with $20 worth of groceries. She then said that "Something's gotta be done."
We will see similar interviews with consumers in front of gas pumps--"Something's gotta be done."
The epic paradigm shift that we are witnessing is American consumers' very gradually dawning realization that the days of cheap food and energy are fading away. They are not going to be happy campers, and they are going to demand that politicians do something to bring back cheap food and cheap gasoline. I suppose that a first step would be for Congress to repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics.
I guess I'm suggesting "eating lower on the food chain" in two senses of the phrase.
Shop the specials.
That is what I do.
Meat is cheap and getting cheaper.
Speaking of military involvement, how about a US naval ship docked in the Black Sea port of Feodosia setting off demonstrations, then riots, then a blockade with anti-NATO Russian seperatists discovering onshore US weaponry [if purportedly to be used in upcoming seaborne exercises--why unload it offshore]?
http://en.rian.ru/world/20060608/49231209.html
Does anyone think the G8 does not have a lot to discuss?
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
- cancel Star Wars anti-missile systems
- don't build the next generation Raptor airplanes.
- close most of the 700 offshore military bases
- quit pushing corporate globalization agendas
- quit pulling our winkies over gay marriage and abortion rights and immigration
- quit listening to lobbyists from K street and listen to constituents
- quit subsidizing corn
- etc... etc... etc...
Sometimes I feel like Herbert Hoover is in office and we are waiting for the "market" to make things right.Not going to happen.
- A return to classic 'class warfare' economic politics by the left.
- An ever more strident effort by the right to focus on 'cultural' issues to fob off growing economic discontent.
This means in the US:A. Further political polarization.
B. Purge of moderates from both US political parties.
C. Increasing institutional dysfunction and gridlock.
D. Increasing search for 'extra-constitutional' solutions by whichever party controls the Presidency.
http://tinyurl.com/nmu3n
"In Broward County [Ft. Lauderdale area], foreclosures were up in the first quarter over the end of last year by 57 percent. In Palm Beach, they jumped 69 percent, and in Miami-Dade, they were up 17 percent.
Overall, South Florida had about 3,000 more foreclosures than at the end of 2005 -- a jump of 40 percent."
The ARMs with no money down are coming home to roost.
When reality sets in, people in the camp that magic will fix everything, may wake up and say to themselves,"what the f**k?, there no wizard behind the curtain, after all". And when people realize that the SRIHTF, what will they do? In the short run, we will see an even greater effort to make sure we are drilling everywhere all the time.
All things considered, however, I've gotta go with reality. Reality tends to make you invest in things that actually have some hope of doing something useful. It's good to see that someone finally had the courage to stand up and point out that the hydrogen emperor, "our hope for the future", has no clothes.
... I do wish conservation and efficiency had as strong a value network.
This was all a little expensive PR event, in order when the shortages come by they could say: "Gosh, we tried so hard to get something clean but it didn't work. Unfortunately we will need to go fo CTL, tar sands, heavy oil and nuclear now... Oh, yes we will also need to wage 1-2-3 more wars to secure "our" oil...". I see ethanol as the next excuse in the transitioning campaign to more and more dirtier and/or controversal energy sources and measures to preserve our "non-negotiatable" way of life.
One of the scientist told a senator that it was ridiculous to build a enormous laser prior to getting the table top prototype working. The senator accused him of being disloyal to the president and tried to get him fired.
When dealing with politicians it is important to realize that they don't understand technology. To them (and most of the public) it IS magic. An those 'liberal arrogant scientists" are just trying to be difficult.
Oy, veh.
BTW this community seems to be moving beyond 'bargaining'.
http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2006/Update55.htm
(Actually if this is a good number, I think the horror of it will get some traction. I mean, what better image than a large lumbering SUV taking food from the poor? That kicks the middle class self-image right in the teeth.)
Can criminal charges be brought up against an ad agency (and its client) for sheer idiocy? Just asking.
It's almost a parody of itself...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ro7Omel6K0E&search=hummer%20ad
Note the link given at the end of the ad takes you to the official webpage where you can watch the ad:
http://www.hummer.com/monsters/
I couldn't make this up if I tried!
http://www.jenniferlovestherobot.com/our_love.html
this is being put out by people being paid lots of money?
The answer is oral sex.
That's quite a message.
I don't thing this commercial will appeal to the target audience. It's to cute. Now if the hummer morphed into a robot and killed the monster, THAT would sell hummers.
Now, does anyone really still believe this society can save itself? ;)
Today I pulled up next to a gigantic Dodge (?) 2500 pick-up; so brand new that even the (oversized knobby) tires were still shiny...
Sticker on the window read: "Bad Ass Boys Drive Bad Ass Toys"
Oil at $80, gas going to $4, war in the Middle East - this apparently does not leave the slightest impression on the "Bad Ass" driving this dinosaur...
I fear we are starting to enter the rapids just before we go over the brink at Niagara Falls...
These ads cost millions of $$$ to run across the country.
They don't spend this kind of money without having done the focus group research first.
Obviously the message appeals to the targeted demographic. Think what you want, but "they" are going to buy their Hummers so as to establish themselves as the Alphas of the road.
There is a certain demographic that is going to buy into Pessat's "Zero Ego Emissions" approach.
There is a certain demographic that is going to buy into Hummer's "Who's the Girlie Man?" approach.
If the tires on your truck are more than twice as big as the tires on your house.... you might be a redneck.
Actually the Hummer is probably only for the redneck lottery winner.
One would expect advertising execs to do their homework, but big corporations get desperate and screw up sometimes too....
Hummer forgot to spend $10 to register the motto, Restore Your Manhood (who are looking for creative anti-Hummer contributions). It sounds more like an ad for Viagra than a car - corporate efforts to undermine their consumer's confidence in order to get them to buy things tends to work better when it's subtle, when they overstretch like this a few more people might scratch their heads and start to get it.
I think that GM is working hard towards short-term goals and slowly destroying themselves, a long-term trend for the American auto industry.
I have 2 kids and a big dog. We use it less than our Prius. Sometimes we need to haul us all around.
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/mpg/MPG.do?action=browseList
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/mpg/MPG.do?action=mpgData&vehicleID=22687&browser=true
Stupid of me.
I couldn't wait that long.
if we must resort to biofuels it just becomes that much more important to use them frugally and efficiently.
(I wonder ethanol vs. biodiesel which is more suited to the "remainder" being human food? And how that equation can be improved.)
(Actually hydrogen may be the "undead" and need a few more stakes through its heart.)
I tend to forget just how little the general public actually understands about the ethanol situation. This morning, I got a call from a college buddy that I hadn't talked to in several years. The guy has a master's degree in chemical engineering, and then went on to law school. He now works as a patent attorney.
The subject of Peak Oil came up (as it often does when I am talking to someone) and it was all news to him. He asked if we couldn't just transition to ethanol. He said that was his understanding from media reports! This is a very serious problem, and is the reason I am so adamant about ethanol debunking. The average person does not understand the gravity of the situation we face, and they are going along happily with their lives thinking ethanol will allow us to maintain the status quo. We have got to do a better job at getting the message out. The public is not getting it, and this is too serious for them not to "get it".
End of rant.
RR
You are perhaps overbuilding in ethanol plants. Friends who are farmers probably thank you for that since a higher world market price will help them and it will also provide motivation to build in height and not area in the local farming areas where we have growing towns.
It will make the ethanol and biodiesel more expensive but there is a risk for runaway oil prices will cancel out that problem from the farmers point of view.
It doesn't mater whether they lean left, right or center Americans just don't believe bad things will happen to them. About the only things they are afraid of are Muslims.
I have. It was quite strange. She was a friend of a friend - someone I see maybe once a year, for a few minutes at most. The topic of conversation turned to high gas prices, and the next thing you know, she's talking about peak oil, dieoff, guns, etc. Apparently, she hangs out at Kunstler's blog.
Everyone else thought were were crazy.
Makes me think we should strive for some kind of representation outside the web.
Hmmmm....
Maybe something like the Moose or Elks club my dad belonged to.
Loyal order of the Drum?
The Oil Club?
The Fraternal order of the Oil Well?
Peak Oilers anonymous?
I'll have to give the name some thought.
(A 12 step program;=)
The sample was undoubtedly skewed. All three have various technical degrees and have an uncommon propensity to think about how things work ... although they usually don't come up with the same answers ... those three did in this case in terms of at least recognizing the reality if not the timing of the issue.
BTW, only one of the three thought that we were screwed no matter what, so I guess by the standards of many on this forumn, the other might not be considered truly tuned in.
Talk about super specialization! (What's his reg number?:-)
Yes, of course.
You are going to run into:
- brain surgeons who are clueless about PO.
- Certified Public Accountants who are clueless about PO.
- Energy Consultants who are clueless about PO.
- Specialized specialist Xs who are clueless about PO.
Every one of them fills a very narrow niche in our Smithian Society and performs his or her work in that specialized niche with the assumption that the invisible grasping device is taking care of everything else.So your ChemE patent attorney friend (to pick an example) may be able to recite to you from memory all of subsection 2112.01(d)(VII) of the MPEP but he's never heard of Peak OIL my gosh !!! Well there is a very simple reason for that. He has his ostritch head buried inside MPEP subsection 2112.01(d)(VII) and is busy studying it every day (just kidding). It is understandable why he can't know everything. Nobody can know everything. It's hard enough to know Chemical Engineering at a Master's level. And then add all the complexities of patent law (a really esoteric area) on top of that. His plate is overfilling already. And now you want him to take notice of this obscure "Peak Oil" thing? Come on. Be realisitc.
How does the Hummer company get him to take notice of Hummer-Manhood? Does he know about Hummer-Manhood? Did you ask him that? Hmmm.
Funny you should mention that. We talked about my recent trip to L.A., and I told him about all the Hummers humming along at 80 mph on the freeway. He said "Do you really think people driving Hummers is a problem?" I didn't ask, but it made me wonder whether he drives a Hummer.
RR
There is only one kind of man:
a Hummer-Man
Welcome to Hummer-Man country
You thought I was joking, huh?
A Hummer-Man takes immaculate measures
in the care & feeding of his Humm-accessories
(Right click & View Image to see better)
Warning: These are not to be treated as boy toys
Why now's the time to buy an SUV
$3 gas has turned guzzlers into white elephants. If you really need or want a big truck, the bucks you save could buy a lot of fuel.
here's the link
Nymex LCS at $79.25 as I write this.
Will we hit $80 today?
Frankly, I don't care if it hits $80 today. The price runup we're seeing has zippo to do with peak oil and market fundamentals, and is driven by fear.
Actually, I probably do want to see the price spike just a little higher, as it would serve to put the fear of the marketplace into consumers. We have an immense amount of psychological inertial to overcome in getting people to conserve, and it won't happen quickly, cheaply, or painlessly. A few sharp shocks will do more to accelerate that process than a long, slow rise (or boiling of the live frog, to use the common imagery).
Seems a bit unethical.
</div>
Now, can you make a Mini-Dick?
Sorry, wasn't pointing fingers at anyone here...
Fear leads to price increases which in turn generate fear.
OTOH, in the WSJ yesterday, page A2 was this article headline:
Chinese Imports
Of Crude Surged
15.6% in 1st Half
So I suspect what we really have is a demand crunch.
Here's the latest from the London Times. "Baghdad starts to collapse as its people flee a life of death."
The dam has given way, and the civil war everyone has been dreading is now in full flood. The price of a lorry ride to Jordan has risen from $200 to $750 in two weeks, as anyone with money flees the convulsing city.
Basra has been in this state for a bit longer, as the Sunni minority has been cleansed, and the Shi'ite militias are starting to fight amongst themselves.
And with the new war in Lebanon, it is easy to see an escalation causing World War I.
As Lord Grey said in August 1914, "the lights are going out across Europe. We shall not see them again for a long time."
Lou, what is your definition of market fundamentals? Obviously, it appears that wars in the Middle East do not count. And once you've defined that, what is your view of the current fundamentals?
Obviously, prices are not high enough to promote conservation. Especially in China but also here in the US of A.
My view of the current fundamentals is pretty much what people here would expect--supply is very tight, demand is proving to be very robust in the face of rising prices. I think the oil market will continue to be a weird and highly fluid mix of fundamentals and other factors for a long time, as in decades.
Be careful about assuming prices aren't promoting conservation. If prices hadn't risen in the last year or so, consumption would be even higher than it is now. Rising prices put downward pressure on demand; normally this effect is large enough to overcome underlying economic and/or population growth so that the amount consumed declines in absolute amount. But it's quite possible to have rising prices coupled with rising demand when that demand reduction is small enough to be swamped by other factors. (This downward price pressure vs. decline in total demand distinction is one that MANY mainstream journalists don't understand, which leads to a lot of economists grinding their molars...)
Umm by definition that is the Gulf Stream.
Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age
Abrupt Climate Change: Should We Be Worried?
Gulf Stream slowdown?
Very nasty indeed.
Here is an interesting link about rapid climate change. Perhaps the most interesting thing to note is the resistance of humans, even scientists to the very data in front of their noses. The data for rapid climate change was there a century ago but it took nearly 80 years for that idea to begin to break through the general science consensus. Today rapid climate change is fairly well accepted.
Here is an interesting article that documents the entire mental shift that occurred in the scientific community about rapid climate change. First they had to convince themselves that it could happen in as little as 1000 years, then in as little as 100 years, then in the span of decades (or less).
The truth is that we don't know what global warming will do but in either case, we can be sure that things will not stay the same. We may end up with a generally hotter planet or we may trigger the onset of a new ice age. Either event would likely be catastrophic for mankind as vast agricultural areas would become unusable and before new areas became usable, billions might die.
Human civilization arose within a very narrow climate band that occurs for 20,000 to 40,000 year stretches in between 80,000 to 140,000 year stretches of ice. For us to drive the climate out of the narrow band in which our civilization arose without first understanding the consequences thereof is foolishness beyond belief.
Changes in zoning and "spread the stores around" so some were within easy walking distance of all.
The magic words' Peak Oil" were not uttered, I doubt if anyone besides me had heard of King Hubbert, but they "Got It". No one knew latest NYMEX quotes. How, I am not sure.
On the surface, an "unsophisticated", hard working blue collar group; but FAR more astute than the average US citizen. And more action orientated than the average TODer !
I spent an hour on the sidewalk talking afterward a 2,5 hour long meeting and then "Hey, lets stop feeding the mosquitoes, I have some good gumbo on". So dinner as well :-) Home at 11:30 PM.
Frank discussion on a large # of topics, rich people coming in from the FQ (the gays have been good neighbors, but I don't have no use for those rich out-of-towners that spend 4 weeks a year here in their condo), politics, race relations, etc.
Over the long term, the Gulf needs to engineer stronger levees and to use the natural flow of sediment from the Mississippi River to rebuild the islands that once acted as a shield from hurricanes.
Source: Science and Sustainable Rebuilding. Not sure if it covers street cars, but I'm glad you do!
Through traffic should take I-610, not I-10.
The part to be dropped is from Elysian Fields to Canal Street (we have cool street names here).
Both Elysian Fields and Canal are major streets (6 lanes from I-10 to the river). Traffic will flow more on them than on smaller streets that use Esplanade & Orleans exits now.
Not as convenient for New Orleans East or Slidell commuters (both largely depopulated now). If/when they repopulate, there is a new commuting reality.
Major maintenance will be required on I-10 in a few years; cheaper to tear down (and better IMO) than fix.
Dropping I-10 will allow Claiborne to retun to it's former prominence as a small business center.
Auto sewers repel people; slow, difficult traffic encourages people. I uset he contrasting examples of Magazine (6 miles of vibrant shopping, small shops BUT terrible driving & parking) vs. Tulane (6 lanes, no left turns, auto sewer) with dead commerical activity.
He says this will be a "tipping point" for the economy.
...and this is before Hurricane activity even starts. Eeek!
I figured it wouldn't be until next year before $100 oil was in striking range.
==========It's all about population!
Get in high-gear preparations now!
Get some "afternoon delight" TODAY.
If you know what I mean . . . .
And cheer up, the end is near;-)
especialy if they are nukes, i live close to three posible targets, a national guard base/depot, kansas city and it's second largested rail road center, lawrence kansas.
so chances of my survival in that kind situation are kind of low.
For reference, the 5 PSI overpressure blast wave extends outward from such a weapon approximately 3.5 miles. Beyond that, you'll be under 5 PSI, which can still damage wood frame houses but usually doesn't destroy them. The 3 PSI blast wave extends out to 5 miles, which destroys windows but doesn't usually seriously damage a wood frame house.
Russian submarines have upgraded to more warheads at lower yields than in the past, replacing 300 kt warheads with 100 kt warheads (up to 10 per missile in a MIRV configuration). A 100 kt warhead has a 5 PSI radius of 2 miles and a 3 PSI radius of 2.8 miles.
So, if you are more than 5 miles from probable ground zero of those targets, you're very likely to live through the initial attack. Consequently, depending on your personal inclinations, you might either (a) think about a fallout shelter, or (b) move closer to the target. ;)
All we need is a good marketing strategy and an agreement on the salvation part...
No cult, but do you have your S&M gear and hockey facemask ready to go?
I am a wise old coot.
Iran reportedly buying high tech arms from Central Asia (which is a no brainer)
Topics: iran military defense
Iran is shopping for military high-tech weapon systems from three Central Asian nations for the last two months and is paying great sums for them.
Iran has sent nine delegations in the past two and half months to Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan to scout for high-tech air defence platforms.
Though formal agreements are yet to be signed due to minor differences, Iran is attempting to buy these weapons on a fast track in the background of a possible confrontation with the West over the nuclear issue.
Details of weapons ordered have not been received, but Iran has been trying to obtain long-range systems to neutralize any Western adventurism.
Iran claims to have received some anti-aircraft missiles and air-to-air missiles from a Central Asian nation which can engage the enemy at a distance of two hundred kilometres.
and this
Eleven Israeli civilians injured by dozens of Hizballah rockets fired into northern Israel Friday, on the third day of war
July 14, 2006, 3:08 PM (GMT+02:00)
Two were seriously hurt in barrage aimed at Safed town and nearby military installations. The IDF base at Biria took a direct rocket hit from Lebanon and suffered casualties. Another hit a house, setting it on fire. Two Israeli civilians were seriously injured in another targeted house near the IDF's Northern Command HQ. Two Israeli civilians were killed in Nahariya and Safed Thursday and nearly a hundred injured by more than a hundred Hizballah rockets.
Also Friday, July 14, Israeli soldiers fought off a second Hizballah incursion for abductions. The Shiite terrorists crossed the border at the Zarit post, near the spot where they kidnapped Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev on July 12.
The Shiite terrorists crossed the border Friday at the Zarit post, near the spot where they kidnapped Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev on July 12.
Israel is under fire on two fronts Friday: Hizballah rockets again hit Safed, Kiryat Shemona, Nahariya, Rosh Pinah, Biriya, Ramat Arazim, Hatzor Haglilit and Baram. No injuries.
In the south, Palestinians shot 7 Qassam missiles from Gaza into Sderot, sending 9 Sderot civilians into shock. Three missiles exploded at the IDF Nahal Oz base and Kibbutz Gevim outside the Gaza Strip. No one was injured.
Thursday, the first Hizballah rocket landed in Haifa, one of Israel's three main cities and petrochemical industrial center. Hizballah denied sending the rocket which hit a street in the Stella Maris suburb near an Israeli military base after dark Thursday. No immediate word on injuries. Residents of Haifa and its environs ordered to shelter in protected areas, placing more than 700,000 Israeli civilians in shelters. More than 100 rockets landed on northern Israel in a single day, 90 Israelis were injured, one woman killed in her home in the coastal resort of Nahariya which was battered by Katyusha fire through the day.
After dusk, several more people were injured when another volley hit residential streets. Residents are fleeing south with children. Safed took another round of rockets after dark and more casualties. One fatality reported, the second of the day. After nightfall, Hatzor Haglilit, Amiad and Korazim came under attack.
What is your basis for this line of thinking?
Do not believe so much of what you read about Iran's eagerness for conflict.
Count me as an unreliable source if you want, right now the war drums are beating, there are vast propaganda efforts underway, there is no trustworthy info to be had.
http://regimechangeiran.blogspot.com/2006/07/iran-and-recent-escalation-on-israels.html
Iran heavily invested in North Korean missile program
LONDON -- Teheran has been financing Pyongyang's intermediate and ICBM programs for nearly a decade, Western intelligence sources said. The funding has been part of a deal in which North Korea would share missile technology and equipment with Iran.
"Anytime you hear of a North Korean success, translate that directly into an Iranian success," an intelligence source said. "You can be sure that within a few weeks, Iran will receive briefings, training and eventually production expertise from Pyongyang."
Iran is believed to have invested more than $1 billion in North Korean missile development, the sources said. In 2005, North Korea increased missile technology transfers to Teheran as it sought to accelerate the Shihab program.
On July 4, North fired six missiles, including a Taepodong-2, with a range of between 3,400 and 4,000 kilometers. But the flight of the Taepodong-2 lasted about 40 seconds and the missile fell in the Sea of Japan.
U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said Pyongyang also fired two Scuds and three No-Dong missiles. Hadley called the launch of the Taepodong-2 a failure. A seventh North Korean missile was fired on July 5.
The sources said Iran has used North Korean technology for its Shihab-3 and -4 intermediate-range missile programs. Teheran has also sent Iranian engineers to Pyongyang for training in ICBM development.
So far, Iran has developed a Shihab-3 with a range of 2,000 kilometers. The Shihab-3 is believed to be a variant of North Korea's No-Dong, with a range of 1,300 kilometers.
"They [North Korea] have decided as a strategy to proliferate weapons of mass destruction, it would appear," Gen. B.B. Bell, commander of the U.S. military in South Korea, told a briefing on May 24. "They decided as a strategy to make missile technology and other technologies for sale on the world market to the highest bidder."
If Bush did anything right, he build a limited ICBM ABM system during his regime and it is also on our AEGIS cruisers. It may or may not work, but it is better than nothing.
Interesting tidbit: During the Gulf War no scud warheads were intercepted by the patriot missiles. All that spectacular footage was of spent rocket boosters being blow up. The system can discriminate against junk and a real warhead.
I wouldn't put to much faith in technology saving us from nuclear attack.
For short range missiles this is an issue because the patriots hit and destroyed the rocket but failed to destroy the warhead which landed on populated area. However if a medium or long range missile was to be fired, the patriot would destroy the rocket before it could reach its target. If the rocket is destroyed over a non-populated area or over the enemy's territory, this would be successful enough.
> wouldn't put to much faith in technology saving us from nuclear attack.
Its till better to have something then nothing. Although a nuclear strike on the US from Iran will very not likely occur from a long range missile. It would be far more practical for Iran to use its terrorist networks to deliver a bomb. A missile defense serves against a accidental launch from a major power or perhaps North Korea (although it appears NK does not yet have working long range missiles).
such irony...
They believe the provocations happened because there was danger of peace breaking out in the Middle East (which would undermine the power of militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah). And also that the West's flat refusal to deal with Hamas contributed to the escalation of tensions, since it left moderates out on a limb with no way down.
Suggested measures include conservation(!) and population control(!!!). I invite TODders to study the proposal in its entirety and see if this is, indeed, a rare flash of common sense from this faith-based US administration. If it is, and if the ideas catch on (two big ifs right there, I know), the future might brighten up quite a bit.
WTF? I would think they'd be going the other way. Unless they're soldiers or something.
And Egypt was worried about a flood of refugees going the other way...
If you decide to sell your house, that doubled in value over the past five years, do you sell it at today's price or for what you paid for it?
If you own a futures contract for gasoline and/or oil, would you sell it at today's price or at the price 48 hours ago?
If you own several thousand gallons of gasoline, do you sell it at today's price or at the price 48 hours ago?
It's all about opportunity cost.
Recall Econ 101? That's all it is.
If the world ran like Econ 101 tells us it does, that's the only course anybody would ever have to take.
Of course there's a lag. That lag is the time between when the oil is bought at the higher price, transported to the refinery, undergoes refining and then is further distributed through the supply chain until it is finally bought by the company that owns the retail outlet and distributed to there.
If oil goes up $2.00 today and my gas goes up $0.30 tomorrow, that's called profiteering.
Gas is not "the world," it's simply a commodity of which somebody has a supply and for which somebody else has a demand. Econ 101.
If I have a box of candy bars and I see a bunch of hungry rich kids coming, I'll sell them for as much as they'll pay. My incentive to sell them at a higher price is even greater if I perceive my own cost is going to rise tomorrow.
Decisions at corporate owned gasoline stations can be made instantaneously. The big boys at the top call somebody who calls somebody ... (this looks like a certain kind of network, called a tree) ... who finally calls the retailer and says change the meters, bump 'em up 30 cents.
For no fee, I will answer any questions you may have.
Do the "Thinking Exercises."
Also do the "Concept Checks."
Learning is possible.
That I believe.
Expectations have no end, they just go on and on.
Rationality at work!
If I were a gas staion owner I would know (a) my current retail price, (b) my supplier's wholesale price, and (c) my entire history of pricing strategies and results.
The superficial analyiss assumes there is no "c" and that this is all new thought.
I certainly don't know "c" but I'd guess that a strategy of re-pricing retail gas every day based on wholesale price is an easy (brain-dead) way to time-average and eliminate the "gottcha" when jump too fast in one direction or the other.
Certainly the other motivation is to maximize return, but independent of that, time averaging reduces risk. Really the profit thing is about the amount you add onto the time averaged base line.
Rick
But, yeah, what do you expect? They are in business to make money, not weep over the harm they are doing to consumers. :-)
http://dan-ur.blogspot.com/2006/07/just-thought-kudzu-for-fuel.html
Is a fantasy post of mine on a bio-fuel we have plenty of in the south. We also have been trying for decades to get rid of it. Why not use it.
Kudzu is ediable for human consumtion this site has recipes for you to try.
http://home.att.net/~ejlinton/jelly.html
I have even considered growing it in pots to contain it. And I have a poem or two running around that talks about it.
The point is that it grows without us watering it, spraying it for bugs, and if any other plant tries to grow in its field more power to it. IF we can get bio-fuels from switchgrass, or corn, or soybeans, why not a plant that grows as much as 2 feet a day?
Harvest it like hay. Grind it up make your fuel. But the waste back out in the feild as something for next weeks crop. You could get several harvest in a season it grows that fast.
I have always thought that harvesting it for something would be good. Why not this?
If you could find a way to burn it for energy at the scale of a single household, well, you've just completely changed the peak oil prospects of the South. The problem is, kudzu is wet, so it needs catalytic assistance to make it burn clean, and that just doesn't scale down enough.
So for the moment y'all might as well just graze the stuff down. You aren't working to grow it, and not much else you can do with it, but you'll get to eat meat no matter how bad things get. Color this Yankee envious.
It grows 6-7 ft a year, come up from the roots and the stumps sprout almost immediately after the tree is cut. It could produce a lot more biomass is a season on the same ground than kudzu because of the added height. Plus it self seeds rapidly.
In Tennessee, any bare patch of dirt will sprout something within 24 hours of our frequent summer thunderstorms. They are like dumping several tons of nitrogen fertlizer on everything.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060713/ts_nm/mideast_ahmadinejad_dc_1
It's interesting to think that Iran could be so cunning to work the small pawns in such a way. If you read the whole article, you'll see this guy denigrate Europeans so we sacrificed the Isreali's following WWII. Don't see it this way, but these people are surrounded by enemies. Nothing like sleeping with them and all...
This is easy to understand. Basically terrorists know the game we are playing. We're using the pretext of democracy as our weapon to extract oil resources. This is what the American people believe anyway, so these organizations are working within the rules to establish their power. In this powderkeg, Hezbollah can not be temepered in Lebanon because anyone who opposes Hezbollah is basically commiting treason against his country. Who's gonna do that? So Lebanon is in this full swing now.
When faced with the few reasonable choices that Iran has, this decision seems to make sense for Iran.
Where's the pause button?
They are an oil exporter that rations gas. That pretty incompetent. An it looked like china a Russia were going to prevent us from invading Iran.
Just when they were going to get what they wanted (nuclear power/weapons) they instigate war with Israel? Israel already has the bomb and some darn good delivery systems.
They instigated a war with Isreal so that they can bring that to either a worldwide stalemate since no one will probably back Iran or they will convince us to stay away and give them Nukes so they won't be a mean neighboor anymore. What you described above is as crazy as the gamble muhajeed (can't spell) may be making.
I'd be sorry to see that.
I have friends in Iran.
Also, I have friends in Israel.
In my more insane moments, I am tempted to become an assassin of fanatics on all sides.
On the other hand I am fairly certain that the answers wont be uplifting in any way. As far as I know I have only spoken directy with some local left wing nutjobs. This is a kind of field research that other more crazy people can do.
I dont think I have any friends in either country but a war is allways a waste of lives, resources and opportunities. This unfortunately do not mean that everybody loses, this region seems to be full of people depending on continued fanaticism and warfare to make a living and keep their status.
I get the impression that large scale and prolonged conventional warfare could destroy Israel as a nice place to live in and they are the best/only democracy in the region and they produce quite a lot of advanced culture. This makes any such war a larger loss for the western world then for instance the massive Iran - Iraq war. If it gets big enough nobody will realy win exept some of the people outside the fighting.
The latest local news is that the Swedish government is trying to organize evacuation of all Swedish citizens in Lebanon, about 4000 visitors and 500 living there.
I wish they would all go on hunger strikes and die.
That would make the world a much much better place.
Small matches--the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, the kidnapping of two soldiers--sometimes light big fires.
Further, Israel was created by UN mandate. In any global system of resolving issues, someone will always oppose the chosen solution. In this case the Arab Muslims opposed the formation of Israel (and an Arab state at the same time) and attacked Israel first.
If the Arab Muslims are ok in ignoring the UN mandates, then why are so many of you Israel haters so down on the US? The US violated a UN mandate in invading Iraq just as the Arab Muslims violated a UN mandate about the formation of Israel. If the US is wrong (and I do believe the US is wrong about Iraq) then by the same logic, the Arab Muslims are wrong and need to recognize and accept Israel's right to exist.
Otherwise, let's toss out the UN, pull out the entire nuclear arsenal and solve this the old fashioned way. Which sounds better to you?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein
Not True.
The Hamas lead gov't of Palestine had announced a national referendum on precisely that question. Then a faction of Hamas (AFAIK, connected more to a Syrian resident commander than the gov't) captured an Isreali soldier.
The captors offered to exchange him for the women and children held in Isreali prisons. Isreal has made similar exchanges in the past (all before included men AFAIK), but this time they responded in a way that made the referendum (that Isreal supposedly wants badly) impossible.
If there is no vote by Palestinians on accepting the legitimacy of Isreal, the decision recently came from Jersuleum.
So Alan, do you as a spokesperson for all these different Palestinian factions, accept the "legitimacy" of the Jewish people having an ethnic homeland of their own, a country of their own, a place where they can freely maintain their Jewishness and not be persecuted because of their race and religion? Yes or NO?
And remember. Aside from your late-cast vote now, the United Nations already voted in 1947 with a resounding Yes.
How long will this "conflict" last?
Let's use the Irish situation as an upper limit (400 years) and work to more optimistic estimates from there.
Really, man. You have to look at the historical precedent for imposing victory on hostile, and religiously antagonistic, populations.
They could "win" in months and still have another century of suicide bombers.
Palestine and Southern Lebanon are very obvious examples.
We would perhaps have had more of that withouth the Israeli settlers movement.
The idea that you have to fight for a god given piece of land for an eternal number of generations instead of trying to live with a defeat and make good of what you have is truly dangerous. This guarantees that a conflict never will end.
(We should take back Norway after the traitorous dissolvement of our union! They cheated us on OUR oil! And Finland is a historical part of Sweden since before we have written records! This foolishness with open borders must end untill the one true nordic kingdom reigns! )
So what happens at some point in the future when Daddy Warbucks is broke, and ME oil fields have declined in a major way. With that, Israel will have lost a lot of strategic importance to the US, even if we have the money to keep dumping on them.
I simply cannot understand how the Israelis think they could be successful in the long run living in constant conflict with their neighbors. It seems to me it cannot fail to fail.
That's an easy one to answer.
It starts with a boom and ends with radiation sickness.
I believe they have a nuclear triad defense (land/sea/air).
Suddenly those noisy neighbors aren't a problem.
Without Egypt, no war.
Without Syria, no peace.
Not all historical developments have been negative. The peace treaty with Egypt and Israel has been in force for more than thirty years now.
I do belive that unrelieved focusing on failures leads to a serious fallacy of lack of proportion. Peace between Egypt and Israel is HUGE. By comparison, Hamas and Hezbollah are small potatoes.
And by what stretch can Israel be blamed for Lebanon's incredibly bloody and long-lasting civil war that mostly was Syria's fault and that only ended by Lebanon being occupied by Syrian troops for longer than Israeli troops ever were there?
Let's use the Irish situation as an upper limit (400 years) and work to more optimistic estimates from there. /Quote
I believe the Irish conflict dates back some 800 years. Sadly, in the case of the Israeli/Arab conflict even 800 years seems overly optimistic to resolving their differences. The best hope for lasting peace in the region is significantly higher standards of living across the Middle East and that's simply not going to happen anytime soon.
This is all madness. :-(
And the f**** maniac leders plays it as such.
That we don't know what is really going on is about the only thing I feel certain about at this stage in this growing mess.
Even if one applies the 'cui bono' test, it is still not all that clear. At least to me.
For example, one could posit that the Bush regime (as opposed to the United States) would benefit from an escalation of the current situation into a broad Middle East war, for the following reasons:
- In an election year it takes attention off of the debacle in Iraq.
- It is part of the neocons dream of regime change in Iraq, Syria, and Iran so as to install puppet governments that will play ball with the US.
- It is part of the neocon and Israeli lobby's desire to make the Middle East a safer place for Israel by having the US help Israel destroy all of its enemies.
- In an election year it reinforces the notion that we are at war, Bush is a wartime president; and by golly, all patriotic American should stick by their president in time of war.
- The Bush regime may have decided that with the outcome of the November congressional elections increasingly in doubt, this may be their last and only chance to have their way in taking on Syria and Iran. If the Democrats take control over both the House and the Senate, a move toward impeachment may not be all that far-fetched.
Now, on the other hand, one would think that the Bush regime has learned some painful lessons by what a mess Iraq has become and that the US is hardly in a position to further extend itself militarily. But the people in the Bush regime seem structurally incapable of learning from their screw-ups. So every day is a new day for these people.One could also posit that Israel benefits by escalating the conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah because:
- The neocon Bush regime is highly sympathetic to Israel's wishes, and if Israel wants to 'take care of' Syria and Iran, it better do so soon, while the Bush regime still has total power due to a majority in Congress. Attack Syria, fully knowing that Iran will aid Syria by attacking Israel, then have the US come to Israel's rescue by taking out Iran.
- As a subset of 1), perhaps Israel feels that with the Bush regime in power it has as good a chance as it is ever going to get to manipulate the US into a war against Israel's enemies.
- This might be a highly oppurtune time for the US and/or Israel to take out Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program once and for all.
- It is the fulfillment of some sort of Biblical prophecy (?)
On the other hand, surely Israel must realize that even if Syria and Iran are defeated militarily, unless both countries are fully occuppied (something neither the US nor Israel are capable of doing) the result will be a perpetual and attriting low-level conflict. Maybe Israel is willing to take that chance because it believes it can always count on the US to spend blood and treasure on its defense. Who knows.I really don't see much to be gained by Iran in all this, except maybe to muddy the waters and give the US/Israel a taste of what they might be in store for if they go all out with Iran. Or maybe they are convinced US/Isreal is going to attack them anyway, so they might as well get the jump on them. However, they don't seem to have a really strong rational reason for starting such a war, but then again most wars do not have a fully rational reason. While this guy 'stringbeans' amandine-a-jad (my own phonetic version) appears to be moe than just a little bit strange, he does not hold full war-making powers and probably could not take the country to war without the approval of the high-ranking mullahs, who are supposedly far more cautious and conservative. Again, who knows.
One thing that I am absolutely certain about is that the potential for miscalculation and unintendended consequences is vast, and that with oil resources thrown into the equations the situation could easily spin out of control. And that is what really scares me.
Suddenly, it is August, 1914.
That "tactical decision" spin lost him any vote of mine.
My God, it's "Groundhog Day" in Washington! One of the funniest movies ever.
My guess at this point: My guess not my prediction or conclusion: There has been speculation about war with Iran for over a year now. Israel wants war and there is a war party in the US. If the war party was not opposed and being attacked on various flanks we would be in a full scale war now. There is nothing but fear of being out on a limb all alione keeping Israel from hitting Iran right now. Frustrated by various voices of reason Israel attacked locally - something it can always get away with - and the propaganda drums making much of the Iran-Hizbollah link are beating at maximum. No coincidence this happens as the G8 meet and as Iraq hits total meltdown. We will know in days not months if Iran is to be attacked. A successful propaganda campaign may send Iran into war with fewer open allies than might have been the case even a week ago but no fundamentals have changed. In the event of war the Straits will be closed. AEGIS systems and other twaddle warmongers want to talk about won't mean squat. In one hour no more Gulf oil. USA and Israel will be hurt worst, whole world will suffer beyond fantasies of those who talk so blithely about various possible positive outcomes or the wondrous military prowess of Israel.
And your evidence to support this questionable premise?
Thank you for your thoughtful response.
The obviously fake propaganda all over the media is thicker than I can recall seeing it. Turn on cable. Read a newspaper.
I have no idea what evidence you might accept. This is one where perceptions will vary. I tried to say in my original post I don't know anything for certain. I do think my line of reasoning is pretty obvious. All sorts of comments have been made, here and elsewhere, for over a year, about the desire o f the neocons, Israeli or US, to go war. Did that thought vanish?
You have made yourself clear.
All I'm even hoping for is a little clarity in what is quite unavoidably speculative.
I would think you might accept that what Israel is doing is extraordinarily dangerous, could lead to a larger conflict, and that they are willing to accept the larger conflict. Starting a new level of hostilities was their choice.
If you want to be snippy we can talk about evidence of the existence of certain 18th century French documents.
So here we are.
Children in the sandlot,
fighting over the Gaza corner
and the Haifa corner and
the heights of Golan
as the oil slowly dribbles out of the crust and into thickening air.
And when it's all run out, what will we have from all our feces flinging?
Just some oilless sand, dark skies and old blood oozing mindlessly into the sucked dry sand.
I, however, can provide compelling and rather easy to understand evidence that it is approximately a sphere (because Aristotle did that about 2,400 years ago).
Do you consider evidence irrelevant to discussion?
The assignats?
The complete works of Voltaire and Diderot?
Do you think obscurity and obfuscation is clever?
Bullshit. Both sides have their faults but Hamas chose to escalate this followed by Hezbollah. And the evidence is very strong that Iran and Syria control those groups. For them to do something so radical would either (a) require direction from their controllers or (b) deliberately choose to break ranks with their controllers.
I think (a) is the more probable answer.
As to what Iran has to gain:
- Increasing unrest at home over economic problems can be masked by blaming the "Zionists".
- This acts to divert G8 attention from Iran's nuclear situation.
- This buys Iran more time to further their nuclear ambitions (peaceful, military, or both).
- This ties down an enemy (the US) with other actions (protecting Israel) making actual action against Iran less likely.
- This feeds the apocalyptic sect running Iran that expects the imminent return of the 12th iman amidst a global war.
- This also allows Iran to inflict damage on a hated enemy (Israel) while accomplishing these other goals.
So while people here can see all sorts of conspiratorial excuses to blame the US and Israel, can you honestly say with a straight face that you can see NO reason for Iran to do the same? Both sides in this are deceitful exploitive bastards. Yes the US and Israel have motivations but so do the Iranians (and Syrians). To assert otherwise is to reveal your biases.That said the media evidence I've seen that Iran controls Hizbollah is, as far as I can tell, slim. They repeat endlessly (I counted five times on NPR in as many minutes) that Iran gives Hizbollah money. So what? If there was any presentable evidence of coordination or control they would lead with that. Lots of kindred spirits pass each other money. In every way I can figure Iran benefits by playing a waiting game. They've done well with it up until now. Repeating what I've said before in different ways, no one over there on any side appears to be acting entirely in rational self-interest. They're all more than a bit off. Just a dangerous situation.
And how coolly do we expect them to behave? American army on the western border, American army on the eastern border, constant American overflights, Special Forces on the ground aiding and abetting multiple disgruntled minorities - would you be cool in that situation? Would you make judgments that made sense to a wide audience of critical observers?
Such an exchange would have presented no obstacles for the upcoming referendum in Palestine on a MAJOR, fundamental step on the road to a lasting peace.
Instead they started a very wide range attack on gaza infrastructure.
It is difficult to ascribe motivations to another, but my reading of Machevelli leads me to wonder, but not conclude, that Isreal wants war.
One could further "posit" that your "posit"-tronic brain has lost functionality of its logic circuits.
- Fact: Israel has atomic bombs and has the means to deliver them.
- Fact: If it was Israel's intent to "destroy all of its enemies" as your positronic brain posits, then Israel could have dropped the bombs on all these alleged enemies years ago ... but it did not (Double Fact)
- Fact: Rather than dropping the bomb on its alleged enemies, Israel has persistently pursued a pathway towards a negotiated peace. They negotiated a peace with Egypt. They were trying desparately to negotiate a peace with Arafat. It was Arafat who backed out at the eleventh hour. Think of him as the Runaway Bride of AllahLand.
- Fact: If Israel negotiates a peace with the Palestinians, then all the Petro-fascist regimes in the region will no longer have the I-P conflict to use as an escape clause excuse by which to fool the "Arab street" of their country into believing everything is the fault of "the Jews". They will have to answer for their own shortcomings. This is an unacceptable fact. Therefore they will do everything in their power to prevent a peace. And in "fact", this is exactly what they are doing through their HezEbolah puppets.
Posit on them apples for a while."Fact #4" is not a fact.
I am puzzled by your failure to acknowledge this evidence.
Hamas scheduled the vote (something Arafat never did) as Step 1 towards negotiations fro domestic reasons (using a popular mandate) and was a confidence building measure towards Isreal.
What other reason for the plebisite ?
And once voted upon favorably, it would be a sea change within the Palestian community.
As it took Nixon to recognize China, Hamas may well have been the best party to make peace with Isreal. If Isreal wants peace on anything but their dictated terms.
Let's see if this works.
OK. Enter: "Let input= "Jewish state has no future.""
Enter "Print (translation)"
Press Execute All.
Here it is:
Output= Yudan Achtung. Take off clothes and march like lambs into showers. Das vorld haz room only for arayans and ayrabzoombrotherhood. Gottsadung.
Hey this is great. I think I understand where you are coming from.
Zionism is Judeophobia for Jews.
I also don't believe that Israel will succeed in the long run in their present format. I find their actions in regard to the Palestinians to be reprehensible. Please explain why that makes me anit-semetic, or how the German death camps are relevant?
You have obssessive compulsive infatuation with the Z-word.
Toss the Z-word into the cage and watch the sensitive monkeys jump and shriek.
Oh what good clean fun.
And as for ... cough, cough... the Peak Oil problem?
Who needs to think on that anymore?
Z is the word, is the fun.
Who is our favorite circus clown?
Let me throw another few words into your circus ring:
racist
ehtnic cleanser
Islamo facist antisemetic code word croaking cockaroach pig
If the shoes fit ....
Well yes they do
Look at the picture
Look at you
I've come to reason with you again,
Because of a coded message softly creeping,
Left its seeds of hate while you'ze asleeping,
And the vision that was planted in your brain
Still remains
With its sounds of hatred.
In restless dreams it stalks you out,
Narrow streets of Aushwitz block,
neath the halo of a tattoo stamp,
It turns your collar to the cold and damp
And your eyes will be stabbed by the flash of
A neon light
That splits the night
And proclaims that "Work makes Freedom".
So what's wrong with that?
Learn to read the coded words my friend.
"Israel as a Jewish state has no future."
"Twilight as a human entity has no future."
These are not "criticisms".
These are coded words of hatred.
Work makes Freedom --that's another code.
What do you think it means?
Here's a hint:
If someone says "Twilight as a human entity has no future." and tells me that is because they are going to kill me, then of course I should be concerned. On the other hand, if they can argure that this is true becuaswe of actions I am taking now, then it is constructive criticism. If someone says that those who have not learned to produce their own food have no future (I'm in that group), I do not assume that is a threat. Apparently you would assume that meant they were going to kill me.
You seem to believe you can tell what is in the mind of the person who wrote that - I don't think you have that ability, and are just projecting your own fears.
There is the potential to do horible things within all of us. Having been a victim in the past does not make you immune, nor excuse bad actions in the future. Those who live by the sword will never be safe unless they can completely vanquish their foes (like was done to the Native Americans). Israel has not achived this, and is not likely to, and so they live in a constant state of war and will not thrive (as they have not). In order to change that will require major changes and sacifices - the present format cannot work. This does not imply any ill will on my part toward Jews, no matter how much you shout it.
I see comments by the survivalists about the arsenals of guns, and I hear people wondering "why do they (arabs) hate us?". I'm done with this now, I will not respond to this thread anymore.
I see comments by the survivalists about the arsenals of guns, and I hear people wondering "why do they (arabs) hate us?". The problem is that safety does not come from weapons, it comes from being a valuable part of the community. If the US had spent the amount we did on the Iraq war on making the lives of people in the ME better in real terms, we would be much safer now. I'm done with this now, I will not respond to this thread anymore.
Twilight,
Therefore, as between you & me, I get the last word here.
By no stretch of the imagination, is your charge that I won't abide to "any" criticism of Israel true.
If you feel that the current "actions" of Israel are overblown, disproportionate, not-turning-the-other-cheek enough; well then fine. And if "you" want to say so here on this web site that's OK by me. Go ahead and do so Twilight.
But "you" didn't say it. You didn't go spouting the z-word in a hateful manner.
Someone else did. Someone who belongs to a certain group of skin-headed Islamo-facist racists who pop into this web site from time to time to sprinkle their coded hate speech into the discussions. That is not acceptable.
If you think their coded words are "criticism", then you are naive and unsophisticated about the ways of these kind of people.
Of course I am "projecting" meaning into their vague coded words. I know who they are. If they say, "work produces freedom"; say what you want, but I know exactly what they mean. And I'm going to keep shining the spotlight of truth on these cockroaches.
If you Twilight, choose to keep it in the dark, to be another Neville Chamberlain and you want to keep chanting about "peace in our times", that's OK too. Just realize the shadows of history do not lean towards your way of thinking.
A number of other people at this web site have already noticed the tattooed swastika shining just a bit too brightly from the skinhead of our Z-word spouter. You have not figured it out yet. Thats all.
Zionist should not be offensive, as Zionism was a real secular political movement that resulted in the state of Israel. I suppose it must offend you because it implies that Israel is somehow not as legitimate.
The "shadows of history" live in all of our hearts. They are what made Europeans give smallpox tainted blankets to the Native Americans and force African blacks into slavery. They made American snipers shoot ambulances in Falluja, Israeli soldiers shoot holes in the heads of Palestinian children, and Palestinian suicide bombers blow themselves up in restaurants full of people. It's called hatred, and we are all capable of it - Jew, Arab, European, Asian, and that guy down the street.
As far as I can tell the original part of this thread was about shining that "spotlight of truth" on some of those "cockroaches" in Israel - they are most certainly there too. And in the ME, it is Israel that are the powerful ones. They have the might, they have the force, and thus it is appropriate that the "spotlight of truth" shine the most often there. You see that as a signal of racism, and since such things are real, it may be in some cases. But I think that's caused you to put your head in the sand regarding the virtue of the actions of the state of Israel.
It is not just that I feel their current actions are "overblown, disproportionate, not-turning-the-other-cheek enough"; I find their whole attitude toward the Palestinians to be offensive and amoral. Are there Arabs who are racist? Of course - but I see the same attitude in reverse too.
I find your use of the term "Islamo-fascist" offensive as hell. Kinda roles right off the tongue, doesn't it? It oughta, it gets an awful lot of use all over the world's press. It is a RACIST term, no different or less offensive than Judeo-fascist would be. So you can shine that "spotlight of truth" at me, I'm sure there must be a few things for it to find - but when you are done, point it in the mirror, and try to keep your eyes open.
Lastly, I know how to post pictures too. The concentration camps were not the last "shadow of history", and there are plenty of images of offenses from the ME conflicts to prove that - enough to make us all puke.
Bingo.
You win the prize for telling a truth.
Zionism "was" --past tense.
There are no Zionists now because the State of Israel was established, legitimately, by proclamation of the UN and it was recognized as a legitimate government by essentially all the countries of the world over 50 years ago. (Guess which country was the first to recognize Israel.)
So when your skinhead friends use the z-word here, they are engaging in a preversion of history and in denial of a fete accompli. Israel has been established. It is a legitimate government. It is a Democracy. It is under attack by those who want to destroy it. And if you want to criticize it, go ahead.
Also, if you want to publish pictures here of Hezbollah terrorists accepting long range missiles from their "unpowerful" friends (you know, the ones that do have oil under their sands and do use oil money to finance terrorism --all over the world, not just against the "zionist pigs" but also against the unbeliever Americans, Europeans and Indians) and you want to put up pictures of these devout religious ones firing the missiles into civilian population areas in Israel, or preparing to suicide bomb innocent Jewish women and children in their homeland; well please, go ahead. I'm sure we will all learn about human nature from such current event pictures.
(Click on each picture to learn more about your Hezbollian friends)
Step Back and Twilight break it off. I just hate to see people I know and love fighting. Do this for me. Bring it back another day. I think we agree more with each other more than we like to argue. So let's stop.
Plus - in the past you guys have pretty much always backed each other up. I can prove this. The fight is elsewhere. Truce...
Thank you for brokering a truce.
TOD Peace Prize goes to you.
The world needs peace makers.
But it's a new morning, and time to get back to oil my friend. This would appear to be a topic we should avoid.
You get an A+ for realizing you were being played.
We humans are irrational, emotional beings. All of us.
I was thinking on what this might have to do with oil, if at all.
Upon "stepping back" to view the bigger picture, I conclude that it shows us what happens at the borders of failed/collapsed and collapsing civilizations.
Palestine (Gaza & West Bank) is a collapsed civilization --overpopulated, no resources and now cut off from the last economic friend they had: Israel. Yes, many Palestinians had jobs in Israel which is why they crossed through those checkpoints every day. Also, injured or sick Palestinians sought medical help in Israeli hospitals. With the wall up and checkpoints closed, the Palestinians are at their last straw. What should they do? Maybe for many, war is the only answer left. (But why against only Israel when Jordan is so conveniently adjacent to the East of the West Bank? Answer: --because they had alread gone to war with Jordan, and lost.)
Lebanon is also a collapsed civilization --never fully recovered from the previous civil war, although its tourism business has been making a come back. Lebanon is controlled as a puppet satellite state by Syria and therefore Lebanon is not a civilization that stands on its own two feet.
Israel is a civilization that is collapsing under the weight of the collapsed states around it. Because the surrounding states switch into war stands as they collapse, Israel must maintain a costly defense system which drains its own economy. Israel also relies on an external state to keep itself propped up: the USA.
The United Sates of America is .... a state which is sort of a combination of Israel and Palestine mixed into one. The USA is not quite out of resources yet, but is heading that way in terms of oil, gas and agriculture. The USA is weighed down by a failed state to the South as well as a collapsing Empire overseas. The USA must maintain a costly defense system which drains its economy.
Not a pretty picture and therefore it may get us angry to hear this.
But then again, there is always that river in Egypt.
Again - Vague!
Did you mean the most important parts of its activities we're humanitarian, - or services, - or neither.
HAMAS IS NOTHING BUT A KILLING MACHINE. WITH NO OTHER GOAL BUT TO SLAUGHTER EVERY JEW ON THE PLANET. AND WHEN IT IS DONE IT IS WELL TASKED TO FIND FRESH MEAT. Hamas has competition, though. Hezbollah is way better. And better finacied and supplied.
South Lebanon. Yeah, Right. HEZBOLLAHSTAN.
I would say Iran may be working the pawns, but who has their hand on Iran, the knight?
This goes back to Russia being the master chess players.
I think they have played Iran and China most effectively for their own purposes.
The credit card companies will love it, because it further penalizes the use of cash. Unless they are very good at estimating in the face of constantly changing gas prices and non-quantitative gas gauges, cash users will need to wait twice at the cash-register line, once to prepay, and then again to get change or maybe to pay again to top it up, instead of just once. Homeland Security will also love it, since it will yield a mountain of new records for them to troll.
Gas station owners won't love it, because the credit card companies charge a humungous amount, IIRC often 5% plus possibly a flat fee.
However, if they all require it, it's not an issue.
Gas stations that let you pay at the pump will have an advantage, but they had an advantage, anyway.
So banks shouldn't have to install vaults, ATMs shouldn't require PINs and we should take locks off of all cars and houses. If something is stolen just call the cops and let them deal with it.
Personally I would rather have our police force tracking down and our courts punishing real criminals, not petty theft (about $60 for a 20 gallon fill). Even with pictures and license plates, what does it cost to cite and punish the guy who drives off? Yes, there are fines, but if it was overall profitable for the police force they wouldn't be going to the city council asking for help.
July 14th, 2006 - With ASPO-5 in Italy only days away, we have above added Outlook updates for CERA, OPEC, a last minute ASPO revision and introduction of a guest modeler, Chris Skrebowski, whose Megaprojects model has gained him notoriety recently for his bottom up field analysis of flow rates and depletion ... similar methodology to ASPO, CERA & Koppelaar. Colin Campbell of ASPO has raised the remaining reserves component of his URR by 30-Gb and boosted peak production to 89-mbd. The CERA model is amended dramatically to reflect figures given in Robert Esser's testimony at USA Gov't Hearings into Peak Oil Theory in December where CERA re-stated their estimate of potential global production at only 108-mbd. In its Long Term Strategy model, OPEC has dampened its forecast peak to 106-mbd.
Chris Skrebowski, editor of the UK Energy Institute's Petroleum Review, foresees increasingly more aggressive net depletion rates compared to other modelers with the difference that his plateau resides at the 60-mbd region as opposed to the more common concept of a peak plateau. Due to his skepticism of current URR figures, we have arbitrarily attributed the average (2.227-Tb) of the three lowest URR estimates to his model. The avg of all the URR estimates, which is usually attributed to those Outlooks that lack URR figures is presently 2.992-Tb.
Please note that y-axis minimum is amended to 10-mbd from zero.
Let's be honest folks, many of you "just can't handle the truth". These four diligent gentlemen had a thankless task and represent YOUR camp. And now many disown them 'cuz the message goes against preconceived notions...
But it is a merging. the top are coming down faster than the bottom is rising. See comparative graphs in our archive: http://trendlines.ca/economic.htm
I began this project exactly 24-months ago. We are elated with the reprecussions.
That doesn't seem very nice to people that let you post at their site. I think if you has some point of data in a given graph that you thought was incorrect, point it out and discuss it. A blanket statement like shows a lack of attention to detail. If you want to be taken seriously discuss it in a serious way.
Yes I do notice the tops are coming down fast. Very fast. Let's see what they predict in 2007 and 2008, Freddy.
HOUSTON (AFX) - The number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas in the United States this week rose by nine to 1,668.
Of the rigs running nationwide, 1,368 were exploring for gas and 296 for oil, Houston-based Baker Hughes Inc. reported Friday. Four were listed as miscellaneous.
A year ago, the rig count was 1,404.
But i thought several rigs were going to pack up and go somewhere else with Saudi money? When is that suppose to happen? Anyone know? or have a WAG?
If all of the price increase is being driven by fear then why is every contract right up till 2012 going up in unison. Surely they do not think this war will last until then?
Now, the classic Econ 101 answer is that everybody is a rational actor and will promote their own self-interest at all times. Yet the current market price (August) and the futures prices (September and beyond) are based on uncertainty due to fear in the markets. Rationality and fear? Do these words go together? From Bloomberg today
Yes, let's consider every possibility. A big asteroid crossing Earth's orbit around the Sun could hit tomorrow. That makes me nervous, so I'll raise prices. Call me paranoid? Well, if you must! My margins are X but the price could be an order of magnitude higher next week. If I want to stay in business, I better raise prices by that much now so I can cover the costs! Ah, you say, the probability of an asteroid hitting the Earth is much lower than that of there being a general conflagration in the Middle East directly affecting oil supply tomorrow. So, everybody is being a rational actor now. But really, do I know the probability of either one with any certitude? No, I do not. But what I do know is that I'm fearful and nervous.So much for Econ 101.
But really. No individual trader needs to actually be in a state of fear. He/she just has to believe that the market will react to an event like a current war or a future war. I don't see how assigning a certain probability to war is any different that assigning a certain probability to a drowth or any other phenomenon that affects the price of food or oil.
Ultimately, though, it still has to do with supply and demand or a projection of what supply and demand will do.
To play this game is difficult under the best of circumstances for the most knowledgeable trader. Anyone who chooses not to try to maximize profits in this game will not last long in the game.
Short answer. Absolutely. I fear there is a truck headed directly in my path which will kill me. My rational response is to get out of the weay.
I try to teach but others must be willing to learn.
By the way, I bolded the wrong part of the text. I'll try again.
Prices go up immediately and we'll gouge you for a few days or weeks if the worst doesn't come to pass. And by the way, "fear = anxiety ridden expectations" and these never stop, as I noted above.Do you believe in Progress?
You have demonstrated no understanding of basic economics whatsoever.
There is no conflict between what makes sense and sound economics. Indeed, a solid study of economics can help much in making sense out of the real world.
Governments create famines, e.g. in Ukraine in 1930s or China in 1940s (which was probably the worst famine in history--crated by the Japanese invaders).
By no stretch of language can colonial masters be regarded as legitimate representative government.
Famines (e.g. N. Korea today, Darfur today, Eithiopia, etc.) are government created and government perpetuated. Without exception, so far as I am aware of.
As Don pointed out, there has not been any famine in India after Indpendence in 1947. Agreed, there is large-scale poverty, but there has been no famine.
To appreciate what democracy (however flawed the implementation of it be) can do to prevent such disasters, please read "Development as Freedom" by Amartya Sen
Without positive "animal spirits," no capital accumulation.
With postive (favorable) "animal spirits" investment and hence economic growth.
As usual, J.M.K. was right.
So I think we do have probabilities. A better question might be to ask about the quality of our probability estimates. And in this case, the actors (the market) have demonstrated a piss poor record of seeing their best guesses actually play out, beyond about 6 months. So I think it's wise to question the quality of the probabilities given, but I don't think you can question probabilities per se, since they are exactly what we use to guess at the future.
by Michael Millikin
With concerns that energy use will rapidly increase over the next several years while fossil fuels diminish as well as numerous other energy uncertainties including the results of climate change, Sandia National Laboratories is proposing applying the principles of surety to energy.
Energy surety takes an integrated approach to achieving safety, security, reliability, recoverability and sustainability objectives for the nation's civilian and military energy systems. Patterned after Sandia's many decades of applying surety principles to weapon systems, the approach includes choosing the best mix of fuels and applying conservation principles to all steps, starting with energy production and ending with final use, even using what would normally be characterized as waste heat and mass.
http://www.energybulletin.net/18195.html
Americans need to realize that there are forces at work in our country pushing us down this road.
My friend, US is already very far down the road of economic imperialism (usually called in the media "free trade", "democracy" and such). The military power has also always been behind it (some 10 wars in 60 years, not enough?) and it's role has been to enforce the economic imperialism, when the other options have not worked.
- Korea
- Vietnam
- The intervention in Iran and the subsequent support of US yo Iraq in Iran-Iraq war
- Grenada
- Panama
- Desert Storm I
- Interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo
- Afghanistan
- Desert Storm II
- Iran II to come??
The list in fact is longer if you include so called "proxy wars" of US against USSR (in Iran, Afghanistan etc.), its direct support to some coups (Iran, Iraq, Chili, Nicaragua, Venezuella, Puerto Rico etc.) and some smaller scale interventions (listed on the site step back provided, thanks step back).My In-depth Interview with Tad Patzek
He doesn't think too much of the celebrity ethanol endorsements:
He also echoes my position on Brazil in the interview, as well as the position I have taken on ethanol stocks:
Cheers,
RR