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Hope Springs Eternal...(or the growth of "peak oil" discourse)

Posted by Prof. Goose on August 23, 2005 - 6:11pm

SB noted in a comment below that "peak oil" had been growing on blogpulse.

(For those of you who don't know blogpulse, it basically goes over the 'net and finds the percentage of blogs with a certain phrase or word.  Cool tool.)

In a prior post last month, I was beating my head against a wall (figuratively, of course) because peak oil coverage was not growing...actually flatlining, especially in comparison to "climate change" and "global warming."

Well, the last couple of months, that's changed...at least a little.  Here's the graphic that SB linked us to that shows a nice little bit of growth of "peak oil" over the last two months.  "Peak oil" has gone from .01% of blogs to .03% of blogs.  200% growth...but, overall, it still isn't all that much.

Here's a link to the six month analysis for "peak oil."  It shows the recent spike (because of the Maass piece I wonder?), as well as the flatline I mentioned above.

An even more interesting graph that replicates my earlier analysis that I mentioned above.  "Peak oil" is now surpassing "climate change" but is not really close to "global warming."  Update [2005-8-23 18:21:24 by Prof. Goose]:Khebab just pointed out in the comments that the plot of "gas prices" vs. "peak oil" is almost perfect in its covariance. (I did that last time, but not this time...thanks Khebab!) It's not surprising that the two hang together well, but it does reinforce the notion that as gas prices go up, so will the pressure to find an explanation! Enter peak oil.

This is all heartening.  It's nice to see the growth in awareness.  However, the magnitude of this problem merits at least 5% of blogs, not .03%.  

We have a long way to go.

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Hope Springs Eternal...(or the growth of "peak oil" discourse)

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14 comments

Sam Foucher on August 23, 2005 - 6:11pm Permalink | Comments top
Interesting tool, try peak oil with gas price.
Prof. Goose on August 23, 2005 - 6:17pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
Good catch Khebab.  I will move that out front.  (I did that last time, but not this time around...)
Sam Foucher on August 24, 2005 - 8:41am Permalink | Parent | Comments top
Correction: "gas prices" instead of "gas price" gives more hints.
Anonymous (not verified) on August 23, 2005 - 6:57pm Permalink | Comments top
peak oil is a useless term except for demablogs.
Anonymous (not verified) on August 23, 2005 - 7:15pm Permalink | Comments top
Peak oil is just one of the three strikes that are going to knock us out.  The other two being global warming and the debt overhang.  Don't expect anyone to pay much attention until things actually start to fall apart.  Then we'll do something stupid like invade Venezuela.

Humans just don't want to focus on bad news.

xuewen on August 23, 2005 - 7:36pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
You missed one:  flu pandemic (H5N1 or variant
Prolific Researcher on August 23, 2005 - 7:47pm Permalink | Comments top
That is a very useful tool.

I will start to track the results for Peak Oil awareness and report back weekly with the results.

Anonymous (not verified) on August 23, 2005 - 7:54pm Permalink | Comments top
Peak oil is riding the wave of gas prices that have increased by $0.25 to $0.40 in the last couple weeks, along with the piece in the NY Times magazine and the piece in National Geographic.  Even my hometown newspaper, the mouthpiece for Oil Town, USA, the Houston Chronicle, had an editorial about Peak Oil this past weekend.  

As poor as Levitt's argument was against Peak Oil, it generated a lot of discussion.

I am currently running a series of posts on the common misperceptions about Peak Oil at my blog (Belly of the Beast).  The first one is titled "Oil Shale Will Save Us".  Please come check it out.

Bubba

step back on August 23, 2005 - 11:23pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
Bubba thanks for explaining why shale oil is gunk rock with no future.
Dave Cohen on August 24, 2005 - 7:43am Permalink | Parent | Comments top
Bubba's "Their solution was to RE-ROUTE THE MISSOURI RIVER to bring water to this very arid area. I am not shitting you."

Thanks for that, Bubba. I also made some remarks on shale oil EROEI here.
Halfin on August 23, 2005 - 9:35pm Permalink | Comments top
Do you think that if gas prices fall after Labor Day as many expect, then Peak Oil will also drop off the blogs?
Prof. Goose on August 23, 2005 - 10:00pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
yeah...it probably will subside for a little while, Halfin.  

I surely don't expect a continuous increase over time...that wouldn't make much sense (unless there's an exogenous event that accelerates things...which is why I think the supply situation is such a problem...)

Who knows.  All I know is that this is important.  How important will vary from day to day, of course.

Ben on August 24, 2005 - 8:02am Permalink | Parent | Comments top
Gas here dropped this morning.  6 cents a gallon, but enough that people have noticed and already are saying "after labor day it will get back to normal."

But I'm not sure anyone knows what "normal" is anymore.

note: I'm getting HTML errors when I try and post with HTML or autoformat.  Seems they want me to open and close all my <p> tags.  Grr.

Donal on August 24, 2005 - 12:09pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
Same here

Hope Springs Eternal...(or the growth of "peak oil" discourse)

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14 comments