DrumBeat: September 17, 2006
Posted by threadbot on September 17, 2006 - 9:14am
Why the laws of economics don’t work well with oil
First, prices never really were as high as the industry’s critics contended. Even when the oil price reached $78 a barrel in July, it was still far below the inflation- adjusted price of almost $100 a barrel that it hit in April 1980.Second, the price drop shows that the markets are retreating from the nervousness created by the “peak oil” crowd that has been arguing that the world is running out of oil. So there is no need to subsidise oil substitutes.
Iran’s oil bourse to be launched
Krauthammer: Attack on Iran Inevitable
Petrol-hungry Iran still eyeing rationing
Tehran - Major crude producer Iran is still aiming to enforce petrol rationing to curb crippling domestic fuel consumption, as long as it wins parliamentary approval, its oil minister said Saturday.
From Jerome a Paris: Countdown to $100 oil - $15 oil? The cornucopians are fighting back
El Nino Delivers One-Two Punch to Natural Gas Stocks
U.K.: Ramblers demand an end to spread of wind farms
The Ramblers' Association is set to announce its opposition to the construction of onshore wind farms across the country. The move is a major blow for the government, which is struggling to maintain its pledge to increase the amount of electricity generated by renewable energy sources.
Builders adapt to demand for energy efficient homes
Don’t toss that gas receipt! Turn it into a voice for fuel-efficient choices!
Leak fuels Scandinavian nuclear debate
An internal leak was behind the high radioactivity levels that led to the emergency shut-down of a Norwegian nuclear reactor last weekend, officials have said.
Venezuela's China oil exports up
Caracas - Venezuelan oil exports to China have risen by a third to some 200 000 barrels a day as the South American nation diversifies its international clients, Venezuelan oil minister Rafael Ramirez said on Friday.
Polar bears drown, islands appear in Arctic thaw
Polar bears are drowning and receding Arctic glaciers have uncovered previously unknown islands in a drastic 2006 summer thaw widely blamed on global warming.
Bush 'prepares emissions U-turn'
President Bush is preparing an astonishing U-turn on global warming, senior Washington sources say.After years of trying to sabotage agreements to tackle climate change he is drawing up plans to control emissions of carbon dioxide and rapidly boost the use of renewable energy sources.
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
Creation of "Clear Morning Voluntary Energy Knowledge and National Security Directive For All American Public, Civic and Private Organizations, and Individuals
A national day of notice on Sept 11 2006, the 5 year anniversery of 9/11 and coincidentally at the same time as the next OPEC meeting, redeclaring the American energy crisis as a national security issue, based on the knowledge that almost no oil we import can be affirmed in it's reliability, is not third party confirmed, and thus subject to a catastrophic surprise/collapse/disruption for a multitude of reasons, and that it from this day, 9/11/06 be the responisibility of the local, township, municipal, county, state, regional, and national governments and organizations, business at all levels, educational organizations includng K through University, civic minded private colleges, civic and human service organizations, health care facilities and organizations, youth organizations, and any and all other organizations that profess to be civic minded in America, AND all private business, commercials utilities, sales and marketing organization, real estate and tourist development organizations, metro and private water and sewer districts, and private business of ALL TYPE, if they claim to be and strive to be civic minded, to establish clear and direct instructions, educational material, directives, activities and educational and public relations material to:
Mission Statement
A. Inform their employees, owners, boards, directors, customers and management of the clear fact that the United States has no reliable information and statistics on the fuel supply, refining and transport system in America, and thus must act accordingly, assuming the possibility of any surprise or disruption, or price or supply shock, OF ANY LEVEL OF POSSIBLE UNPLEASANT AND THREATENING DISPRUPTION AND OR LEVEL OF MAGNITUDE.
B. Inform any and all government agencies, neighborhood associations, municipal boards, city managers, alderman, county governments and departments, state governments, cabinets, legislatures, and state government departments, regional associations and departments, and interstate coordinating agencies, United States government legislative elected representatives, U.S. governent cabinents, departments, functionaries and managoers and directers of departments, bueareaus and agencies, and the United States Executive branch government departments, cabinets, and bueareaus, and all Staff Departments of America's highest executive agencies of the clear fact that the United States has no reliable information and statistics on the fuel supply, refining and transport system in America, and thus must act accordingly, assuming the possibility of any surprise or disruption, or price or supply shock, OF ANY LEVEL OF POSSIBLE UNPLEASANT AND THREATENING DISPRUPTION AND OR LEVEL OF MAGNITUDE.
C. Inform all civic groups, civic organizations, non profit groups, social and civic agencies, public action and political action groups, and any and all groups engaged in promotion of improving civic affairs in the United States at all levels, including groups engaged in public awareness and education of the clear fact that the United States has no reliable information and statistics on the fuel supply, refining and transport system in America, and thus must act accordingly, assuming the possibility of any surprise or disruption, or price or supply shock, OF ANY LEVEL OF POSSIBLE UNPLEASANT AND THREATENING DISPRUPTION AND OR LEVEL OF MAGNITUDE.
D. That all schools, colleges, universities, private educational facilities of a civic minded nature, educational institutions of a scientific, technical and research nature of a civic minded nature, of the clear fact that the United States has no reliable information and statistics on the fuel supply, refining and transport system in America, and thus must act accordingly, assuming the possibility of any surprise or disruption, or price or supply shock, OF ANY LEVEL OF POSSIBLE UNPLEASANT AND THREATENING DISPRUPTION AND OR LEVEL OF MAGNITUDE.
It is hereby requested that all the organizations, governemet agencies and groups at all levels, utilities, health care facilities and organizations, mission critical services, human and social services, businesses, groups, agencies, educational institutions, civic groups, public action groups, and any and all groups and organizations, chartered in the United States of America including all listed to this point above, but not exclusive only to these, and any and all organizations in the Untited States who hold as part of their mission or misssion statement dedication to the improvement of civic life in America, undertake actions to insure the education and information of al persons and parties involved with and attached to them to convey the central message of this statement:
The fact that the United States has no reliable information and statistics on the fuel supply, refining and transport system of critical fuel in America and the world, and thus must act accordingly, assuming the possibility of any surprise or disruption, or price or supply shock, OF ANY LEVEL OF POSSIBLE UNPLEASANT AND THREATENING DISPRUPTION AND OR LEVEL OF MAGNITUDE.
It is asked that this and the following actions be taken as a contribution to the national security, safety, prosperity, stability and survival of the United States of America, and to the security, safety, prosperity, stability and survival of the respective organizations listed above, and that all above organizations who hold as part of their mission or misssion statement dedication to the improvement of civic life in America, be directed by the responsible owners, directors, boards, board of directors, outside directors, employees, managers and customers that the organization in question should create, by whatever means customary to their respective organization, a mission statement, directives, goals, oversights, procedures and plans to implement the beginning stages of the above educational action and program, and to begiin the groundwork for planning and implementing the follow on steps to achieve the follow up goals, plans, procedures, commitments and steps, to achieve the following follow on steps as listed in section II.
It should further be made clear by all responsible owners, directors, boards, board of directors, outside directors, employees, managers and customers that the organization in question should be viewed as the fudiciary responsibly party, the party that will bear responsibility for beginning this openly public contribution to the national security, safety, prosperity, stability and survival of the United States of America, and to the security, safety, prosperity, stability and survival of the respective organization in particular, and will be held accountable to the public, and all involved and interested paties for the efficiency, effectiveness, creativity, reach, and innovation with which this program is carried out. Each respective organization will be expected as a matter of due dillagence, as a function of organization effectiveness, as management and fudiciary responsibility and as public indication of commitment to the stated mission of the organization in improving civic life in America, and as indication of their commitment to the national security, safety, prosperity, stability and survival of the United States of America, and to the security, safety, prosperity, stability and survival of the respective organization to implement, document, publicise, and enhance and improve on a continuing basis the ongoing funtion of the program.
THE CRITICAL NATURE OF WHAT YOU ARE ABOUT TO UNDERTAKE CANNOT BE UNDERESTIMATED IN THE POSITIVE EFFECT IT COULD HAVE ON THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND ON YOUR ORGANIZATION AND ALL STAKE HOLDERS IN THE ONGOING SUCCESS, STABILITY, RELAVENCE, AND THE SURVIVAL OF YOUR RESPECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
After the opening phase of the program of education and public awareness of the serious energy information issues facing the United States and all respective public organization in America, in which the respective organizations have used the best of their respective talents, methods and tools to ensure complete distribution of the central message, the organization can begin to engage Section II of the plan directive in whatever way and using the best respective methods of each respective organization, including organization, documentation, publication, and continuing improvement.
As in Section I, Each respective organization will be expected as a matter of due dillagence, as a function of organization effectiveness, as management and fudiciary responsibility and as public indication of commitment to the stated mission of the organization in improving civic life in America, and as indication of their commitment to the national security, safety, prosperity, stability and survival of the United States of America, and to the security, safety, prosperity, stability and survival of the respective organization, and would be judged by their respective owners, directors, boards of directors, customers and stake holers on this criteria.
Section II
"Clear Morning Voluntary Energy Security and Contigency Plan Directive"
This Directive should be carried out in whatever manner is most effective, possible and viable for the respective organizations, including, but not exclusive to, all organizations listed above having agreed to the "Clear Morning Voluntary Energy Knowledge and National Security Directive For All American Public, Civic and Private Organizations".
The Mission Statement for Section II,
"Clear Morning Voluntary Energy Security and Contigency Plan Directive" is as follows:
The respective organization will research, plan, create, and implement a Change and Contigency Plan to:
- Enhance energy security of the respective organization in the event of and assuming the above mentioned possibility of any surprise or disruption, or price or supply shock, OF ANY LEVEL OF POSSIBLE UNPLEASANT AND THREATENING DISPRUPTION AND OR LEVEL OF MAGNITUDE IN ENERGY PRICE, RELIABILITY OR SUPPLY.
- Enhance the respective organization in it's ability to withstand energy surprise or disruption, or price or supply shock, and be able to continue normal operations throughout one or more EVENTS OF ANY LEVEL OF POSSIBLE UNPLEASANT AND THREATENING DISPRUPTION AND OR LEVEL OF MAGNITUDE IN ENERGY PRICE, RELIABILITY OR SUPPLY.
- Continue enhancement and improvement of Change and Contigency Plan plan to allow the respective organization to withstand above listed disruption in price, or any magnitude change in energy price, reliability, or supply.
- Document and publicise the ongoing implementation and improvement of the Change and Contigency Plan to the satisfaction of all respective owners, directors, boards of directors, customers and stake holders on this criteria, as goal of enhancing the national security, safety, prosperity, stability and survival of the United States of America, and to the security, safety, prosperity, stability and survival of the respective organization.
Implementation of Section II major goalsEach and every organization in the U.S. to pledge to consider the above goals as part of their overall corporate, governmental and organization civic responsponsibility, and to assist the United States of America in it's absolute imperative to become fortified to the greatest possible degree to weather energy price instability, possible supply disruptions, and catastrophic energy failures due to foriegn or domestic action, weather and other natural emergencies, and international or logistical failures.
THIS PLAN IS TO BE DISTRIBUTED TO EVERYONE IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ON THE BASIS THAT EXPEDIENCY ALLOWS.
(WORK IN PROGRESS-FIRST ROUGH DRAFT
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
P.S. Dates were date that first document was assembled and read by local supporters......RC
Please allow a few remarks.
- It's one thing to say people should prepare. But how do you want them to do that? What practical measures do you recommend?
- You want to reach as many people as possible. That means you have to write as accessible, and as concise, as possible. While the effect of repetition can be positive, it makes your piece unnecessarily long and hard to comprehend. The "explain it to me like I'm a six-year old" rule applies. Avoid bureaucratic blubber where you can.
- Run a spellchecker. It's an easy way to get rid of typo's, even in a first draft.
You mean to say "overestimated". Something that can't be underestimated approaches zero value, as in you can't go low enough in your estimate."Underestimate" as a verb means "To make too low an estimate of the quantity, degree, or worth of." So swap that into the sentence:
"The critical nature of what you are about to undertake cannot have made too low an estimate of its worth."
In other words:
"The critical nature of what you are about to undertake is worth less than you can possibly estimate."
So the poster really does want to say either "cannot be overestimated" or "should not be underestimated", depending on whether he wants to emphasize its innate importance or our risk of ignoring it.
Thank you for the kind words, but it is just what it says, a first rough draft, put together with several contributing ideas, to get us started. Thus, for those who beat up the grammar, my apologies, but there is a lot of cut and paste in there, as we built up all the things we want to start covering. This is to be a working document, not for publication or distribution in this form.
The grammar can be easily corrected, I put the rough here because I consider you guys "insiders", and online friends, given the volume of bad writing I have been forgiven for here! :-)
There is a companion Yahoo Group just set up, that has as it's first post the document in question
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/Voluntary_Energy_Knowledge_Security/
usable, but still under construction/just began.
Your question is the one that is most pressing: "It's one thing to say people should prepare. But how do you want them to do that? What practical measures do you recommend?"
First, a sacrilegious premise: I have disavowed further interest about when Peak is going to occur, whether it has already occurred, or if it is even noticeable when it occurs (and it will, that is a geological/scientific fact if we are talking narrowly about what are by definition nonrenewable fuel sources) I disavow the usefulness of exactly how "Peak" per se is defined, as I have found no valid and consistent definition useful for planning in almost 4 years of contact with the issue named "Peak Oil".
I disavow the belief that anyone (with the possible exception of M. King Hubbert himself! :-) has been able to use the so called Hubbert Curve with enough reliability to act as a planning tool in any way, and if they have, it has not been accepted by enough people to make it influential in anyway. Thus, what it may or not have in predictive power is in enough debate so that it is destroyed by it's lack of credibility with experts and laymen alike, whether deserved or undeserved. This makes it useless as a tool of planning, or of communication.
The Hubbert Curve however is no less reliable than the methods used by all others in the oil and planning industry. The statistics from the EIA, IEA, USGS, CERA, the NPC and other advisory and informational groups are equally if not more muddled than other more controversial, less accepted methods of predicting.
Essential, all guessing about future oil supply, consumption, and possible depletion and so called peak regardless of source is to be regarded for planning purposes as exactly that: Guessing, and of no use in planning purposes.
-------------------
How to proceed, briefly, from the above assumptions, in a practical way:
The practical steps are based on models from other completely unpredictable scenarios, and one in particular: The markets. Given that despite decades of trying to guess the direction of financial markets no usable "system" has yet proved itself, but that the markets and how to respond to them must be considered minimally "rational", how does an investor act in market decisions:
He/she assumes that any scenario is "possible", but that some are "probable" and then plans in descending order the steps to take to plan for these scenarios. This is an effort that has not been made in any real systemic way in regards to energy, in which we are all, whether we like it or not, investors.
So, the practical steps:
- Rational Education. The energy consumer/investor must be informed. There is no system. There is loose flowing information that will only be correct by coincidence. You must also be made aware of the options available. There are many more energy options in the marketplace than most people know. It should be your goal to know what is available, and whether it works FOR YOU. Each situation is different. You energy plan should be as tailor made to you and or you organization as it's financial investment portfolio is. There are many options, and many mixes of options.
- There are ways to plan. Just as with your investments, you can diversify. (your business runs on essentially one fuel. Would you own just one stock?
You can conserve. (Are you so willing to waste fuel? Would you be so willing to waste money? You can bring in newer technology. Would you turn down new methods in business if they were shown to overcome most or all of the problems of your old methods? And you can plan strategically. Would you not keep some money in reserve, for opportunities, or in case of emergencies? Should you not have a strategic plan and a strategic source for spare energy?3. Action steps. When you take action, you should get credit for it. There are others who will be taking action on this issue. And you should have people and sources to communicate with. The actions taken to diversify, modernize and strategically strengthen America's energy situation is not only a valuable service to yourself and your organization, but puts you and your firm in the forefront of of strengthening your nation and enhancing your strategic responsibility to the nation and the world.
-------------------------------------
The above is pretty much the "pitch", and I don't mind calling it that. it is the case that needs to be made demonstrating that reduction of energy waste, and enhancing of diversity, decentralization, and modernization of American energy is not a "bad" thing that has to be done to dodge some "guess" that catastrophic things are going to happen. It is part of a program to assure continued operations, and be more competitive in the local region, the nation and the world. That's all. This plan should be undertaken even if any possibility of "peak oil" or depletion is 50 years away.
The step to be taken at this moment by the
Clear Morning Voluntary Energy Knowledge and Security Initiative
- Rationalize and prepare the above messages for distribution. Create a core philosophy around the effort to send a streamlined, easily understood version of this message.
- Structure of organization as a not for profit informational and civic group. Full staffing and contact with talent, advisors, and other concerned parties.
- Branding. The Easy Identification of documents, paperwork and web site through branding, images, logos, etc.
- Building support by exposing the message to individuals, groups, firms, organizations, and energy related firms and industries of priority importance. Exposing the firms able to provide or already attempting to provide needed advances and technology to possible customers as they are brought into contact with the group.
- Methods of succession, organization and structure to assure the ongoing and expanding mission of the group. Essentially, making the group permanent, refining and improving it's message, and outreach.
Lastly, resources. Like any group of this type, the idea and the structure will have to be done on the cheap, if not the free! I have left resources to one side, essentially because at this time there are virtually none! But, at some point, there could be, so it goes without saying that control, auditing, and correct distribution of resources must be planned by whatever way legally appropriate to the corporate form (nonprofit, foundation, etc.) that is taken.Exact technical details are not given as you may notice, because this to me has been one of the central holdups on energy education, security, diversity, and modernization. People get married to solar, or wind, or methane recapture from landfills, and advise everyone to adopt the new silver bullet.
The renewable fans often see fossil fuels as the evil enemy. Fossil fuel firms see renewable as an annoyance, and throw up roadblocks to distributed generation. NO ONE TECHNOLOGY will do the job.
Every alternative will be looked at, the ones that are already out there first (ground coupled heat pumps, solar water heating, LPG as CHP power in certain areas and seasons, natural gas where it can best be used as distributed power for CHP. The list is long and complex. Some work in one place, but market conditions prevent them in other places. The technical alternatives are much like the financial markets. A new instrument or mix of instruments is the only way forward. Diversity, strategic planning, seasonal flexibility, it all matters and will contribute.
(Sections extracted from other documents, forgive if grammar is not perfect, cut and paste warning!)
The most important point is to break out of this one size fits all either/or thinking.
"Peak will happen, or soon, or there's no point in being more efficient"?? That's the kind of logic you hear from grown ups.
"Nuclear has to work or we're screwed" ???
"If we drop 5, or 7 or 10 percent on crude oil in the summer, we're screwed, the economy will collapse." ??
THE FIRST GOAL: Education, rationalization, and distribution.
THE SECOND GOAL: Structure, improved and more complete message, hone the information
THE THIRD GOAL: LIKE A TREE, SET DOWN ROOTS AND GROW, PERMANENT, PROFESSIONAL GROWTH
(O.K., FOLKS, now you can laugh, or take it for what it's worth, you are getting to see the building stage before the pretty stuff goes on! We may run out of material and you never hear of it again, but on the other hand, who knows?
Somehow we have got to get this message back up on the tracks, though, and move forward, do something, and have some fun with this....
Everybody should tilt at a few windmills before they die! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Hopefully, the electricity will come from conservation or wind, but still a net gain even if the electricity comes from coal.
Best of all, it is non-partisan and does not require any federal involvement to suceed, although federal backing would expidite its implementation.
I'm anxious to see how you roll this out...good luck!
It features an "oil industry critic" named Tyson Slocum, who argues that the reason the price of oil is dropping is because the recent bipartisan investigation of prices has scared all the speculators out of the market.
There's also the religious element in economics, you can always refer to a higher and highly complex mechanism full of unforeseeable factors. In the end, supply and demand will even everything out. If they don't, the market doesn't function properly, and must be changed. Not the principle.
God loves all children.
So why does he let them die in misery?
We cannot understand the unlimited wisdom of the mind of God.
So how do you know he loves all children?
I wish it were that simple.
The formal study of Economics is full of code words, words that trigger certain psychological responses of confusion and feelings of inferiority. Once you allow yourself to fall into the framework, you are trapped into a dizzing spin zone of your own making.
What does "market" mean?
What are the "fundamentals"?
And heavens if you cannot understand the "fundamentals", how do you stand a chance of understanding the market "complexities"? Best to leave it to the "experts" who are there to assure you every day that the "fundamentals" are "good", that "The Economy" is "strong". And if he is not feeling that well this morning, rest assure that Mr. Economy will be "recovering" soon and getting healthier by the minute.
As Big Daddy said:
"If you've got to use language like that about a thing, it's ninety-proof bull and I ain't buying any."
And yet, BMW is not laughing...
http://www.bmwworld.com/models/750hl.htm
Of course, there is another way, as some tinkers with a Mini found out:
http://www.pmlflightlink.com/archive/news_mini.html
The performance of the Mini is astounding, and it doesn't take much imagination to see that in a normal car, tweaked to average good to better performance, we are very close to an energy supply revolution. Is it the "magic bullet". No. That is always such a red herring.
But what is happening, little by little, (and faster than some expected) is the technical side is doing their job. The breakthroughs are beginning to speed up. Unlike the United States, everyone else is not giving up, but taking a sane multi pronged developmental approach. Once more we risk being left in the lurch, as other nations devour markets while we said "can't be done."
This is now the greater and more immediate danger. We are becoming the "can't do" nation.
In 1980, Briggs&Stratton Corp. with Marathon Electric Car of Canada built the first fully developed prototype of a fully Plug Hybrid Electric Car.
And then walked away.
A couple of years ago, the EPA, Eaton Corp. and Ford Motor Company built a fully working Hydraulic Hybrid SUV. With a small Diesel engine, it would match the performance, towing capacity, and highway performance of the Ford Navigator that it was based on (I have linked it here before) but get mid 30's on fuel mileage. This was a fully equiped Navigator SUV, mind you.
Think what this would have done in a Contour or Tauras sized car?
They walked away. They are now struggling for corporate existance.
Someday, and soon, we may begin to see that the American crisis had nothing to do with peak oil. It had to do with what it took no Hubbert Curve to predict: A crisis of education and effort. This has been being warned about for a half century. The great British writer and poet W.H. Auden once said that in the declining days of the British empire, young boys would try to decide their career with a game of "church, soldiar, law". Clergyman, soldiar, or barrister, no one, he recounted wanted to be a "stink", their nickname for the technical scientific types (based on the chemical lab majors at Oxford who wore the white coats that always smelled of chemicals from the lab work). Think of this for a moment, from the British...the nation that had invented the steam engine and the modern technical age. Such had regard for technology and industry, the wealth providers of a nation, declined in only a few decades, and with it declined the wealth of a great power. It is sad and tragic beyond words.
A culture is indeed a fragile thing. it does not run on oil. Oil is filthy smelly stuff that can do nothing until it is applied. A culture runs on human brain.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Whoa.... the British Empire was certainly in decline during this period (late 1920s) but not for the reason you suggest.
I'm unsure from your statement whether it is the failure of science education or education in general that you attribute this decline to... so I'll tackle both...
Firstly, you have to remember that Auden was talking about the elevated circles of Oxford University (& Cambridge?) ... open to what... the top 1% of the population. Whilst many great scientists & inventors have certainly graduated from "Oxbridge"... the sciences were never the major areas of study. (I mean, would you make the same statement about science at Yale & Harvard, then or now??)
Furthermore, I don't think that British inventiveness/science started to decline until much later... I mean, in the 40s, Whittle invent the jet engine, Crick & Watson discovered DNA... Alan Turing's work... to name but three in different disciplines... off the top my head...
As for the general education system... I would contend that the decline in UK did not begin until the change from the "Grammar school" system in the 1970s... it was certainly intact in both science & arts when I passed through in 1960s...
But I agree that a failure to invest in general education reaps consequences for society later on.
As an international educator for 30 years... I find that students in western nations have too many "distractions" these days... I note with interest that science fairs/ robotic competitions on TV recently... predominantly seem to feature Americans/Canadians of Indian or Asian descent. I wonder why?
First, thank you for the reply, and I am certainly not willing to put myself out on a limb by debating too stridently on this point with a citizen of the realm! :-)
To say that I "attribute" the decline of the empire from it's highest days to the decline of technical education (which was the type of education I was most interested in for our purposes) may be giving a cause and effect link tighter than I intended, but that would be the fault of my own syntax. We know of course that the fortunes of the empire were much more complicated than that.
I would however, be willing to say that the decline not only of technical education and the decline of interest in it did deprive the empire of the needed tools and wealth at a time when it was most needed. I don't think this a radical thought, nor am I the first to make it, but it would be interesting to restudy the literature on this point.
Of Oxford, you say, "the sciences were never the major areas of study. (I mean, would you make the same statement about science at Yale & Harvard, then or now??)
That is true. To the second point of your question about Yale and Harvard, I most certainly would, sadly. I think that the education of and dedication to the technical arts are deplorable at Yale and Harvard. I know, they are not technical schools of the type that say MIT or CalTech are, but this is no excuse, when we know that Harvard and Yale have science departments, and that a Harvard Physics professor makes the public case for American interest in science education, asking if science is "Scientific Elite, or Outcast?:
http://mazur-www.harvard.edu/wh.pdf.
Sadly, however, in our time of greatest need, the only time we hear from Harvard and Yale's scientific community is when they come forth from those great stone castles to tell us how ignorant the rest of us are.
To your examples: It is inteeresting you should mention Sir Frank Whittle. He is one of my technical heros. He is also an example of what a great mind can do with almost no support from his culture. To me, he is a perfect example to indicate the decline of support for talented technicians and inventors in Britain in the decline period, as the lack of financial, political, military and social support for his work is legendary.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Whittle
"All of these delays and the lack of funding slowed the project. In Germany, Hans von Ohain had started work on a prototype in 1935 and had passed the prototype stage and was building the first flyable design, the Heinkel HeS 3. There is little reason to believe that Whittle's efforts would not have been at the same level or more advanced had the Air Ministry taken a greater interest in the design." Whittle worked 16 hours a day, and suffered health and narcotic addiction issues in his effort to push an idea that few in the circles of power showed any real interest in.
Alan Turing's story is too sad to recount, convicted of homosexual practices in 1954, forced to take hormones to avoid imprisonment, and dead of suicide by age 42, he never got to enjoy the full fruits of what he had done for Britain during the war.
By the time Crick and Watson came along, they could at least enjoy Britain's period of "penitence" as it tried to be more enlightened with it's science and technical community, but they too were at rarified levels, would we argue that the applied sciences have fared so well?
Your last question/observation..."I note with interest that science fairs/ robotic competitions on TV recently... predominantly seem to feature Americans/Canadians of Indian or Asian descent. I wonder why?"
The distractions are a real reason, I agree, but could it be that they are raised with a deeply rooted respect for not only science, but the applied sciences and technology that is sadly lacking in the West?
One last thought....look at the Mini reworked as a monster hybrid in the link I gave, http://www.pmlflightlink.com/archive/news_mini.html
Reread those statistics...if this thing is even half of what your countrymen claim it is....well, either Britian can jump in the gap and have the glory they knew in the days of the first Mini, or, the Chinese or Indians can read about it on the web, and given how cheap they can build.....do you really think they will sit on their hands and let something like that go by....to modify a common saying here, deal with change, or change will deal with you.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
They suggest that the value in these cars is that it allows us to build out infrastructure now, for those future fuel cell vehicles. Infrastructure based of course on hydrogen reformed from natural gas, or hydrogen as a fossil fuel.
Meanwhile GM is pleased to roll out the world's largest fuel cell fleet (100 vehicles), and hit the amazing product life of 50,000 miles.
You read that right, after thirty plus years we have a car that lasts 50,000 miles.
... anybody have something for my stomach?
odograph said
"BMW does us a great disservice by advancing hydrogen internal combustion vehicles. The technology isn't that different than a natural gas conversion. Just pipe the gas into the cylinders of your car, and blow it up. Add some hydrogen tanks and you could retrofit a '67 vette."
To your first sentence, I am at a loss in understanding why BMW is doing a "great disservice"?
Your second sentence is exactly right, it isn't that different from a natural gas conversion. I have always been mystified by the way hydrogen is viewed as almost a magical fuel. There are those that argue "It can't be done!" "It can't be used!" "It's too dangerous!" "It's only a carrier of energy!" (duh! Gasoline is only a "carrier of energy"!!) The layman's logic defies all rational thought!
I am sitting in a home heated by natural gas. Look at the chemical symbol:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas
Now, look at methane:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane
Now, look at propane:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propane
Whoa! Look at all that hydrogen! So when we say we cannot burn hydrogen as a fuel, that is absolutely incorrect. It is all we can burn. The carbon is nothing but an annoyance (the source of the hated CO2 greenhouse gas)
Is hydrogen dangerous? Well, is natural gas dangerous? Of course, if not handled carefully. People get killed in natural gas explosions, and by gas leaks causing suffocation every year. But the infrastructure used to handle natural gas and methane (of which there are millions of cubic feet produced daily by sewers, landfills and plant/animal processing), is equally well suited, with care and maintained to high standard to handle hydrogen. THAT is the infrastructure you and BMW refer to, but then you leave a different impression of what BMW is trying to do:
"Infrastructure based of course on hydrogen reformed from natural gas, or hydrogen as a fossil fuel."
That is decidedly not the case, as BMW's website and work over the last half decade make clear. The goal is to use solar energy to convert the hydrogen.
The methods are already well known, and they work. The quanity of sunlight falling on the Earth is more than enough to power a world that is FRUGAL and efficient with the hydrogen, and the price is not as high as many believe, and is already coming down.
( brief aside: this is why I am absolutely certain that crude oil per se will never be able to hold a price above $120 to $150 a barrel...it makes NO SENSE, there are far too many alternatives at below that price, what is in crisis is the technical class to get them out there and the management/financial class to support the effort, so if we have the "collapse" which is very possible, it will not be because of energy, but because WE FAILED. It will be a cultural collapse, which would have happened anyway.)
You mention the fuel cell car, and in that you are absolutely correct. That is a dead end for the foreseeable future. The fuel cell has applications, and work will continue, but an automotive application is not one of them. That is what BMW realized early on. Hydrogen is too easy to isolate and handle and leave fuel cells out of the loop, they only slow you down!
You gave the numbers..."world's largest fuel cell fleet (100 vehicles), and hit the amazing product life of 50,000 miles."
Let's make it a race...how long do you think it will take BMW to build 100 internal combustion hydrogen cars?....my guess, about a day and a half once they get underway! And they will sure as helll last far longer than 50,000 miles, no matter where the hydrogen came from, (and remember, GM is not even tackling the issue of gettng away from fossil fuel for hydrogen source, BMW and by the Honda, are)
When we look at the really big picture folks, the truth is, hydrogen as liquid transportable fuel produced by renewables is the only path that doesn't run out to a dead end. EVERY OTHER choice, if it can somehow last at least for awhile, still runs into either major greenhouse gas problems, or political issue (natural gas comes to mind) because it is in all the wrong places.
I have some time ago started to think in these terms: that what we should do is pour it on the clean renewables (solar, wind, geothermal, methane recapture)
and improved them as a reliable hydrogen electrolyzer/splitter, and stop all these "middle men" enriching boondoggles (fuel cells, coal to liquid, ethanol, tar sand, shale oil, etc, etc,) that are wasting our time and resources.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Leak fuels Scandinavian nuclear debate
Sure, these incidents have caused big headlines. But my feeling is that when people hear some of the environmentalists compare them to the Chernobyl incident, they know it is wild exaggerations.
Furthermore, the shutdown of the Swedish nuclear reactors has caused electricity prices to skyrocket. Given the debate these high electricy prices have sparked, I think people will sooner want to start up new plants rather than close existing ones.
Following closely behind an incident at a Swedish atomic power plant a month ago that has been described as the worst nuclear incident since Chernobyl (see related story), this latest Scandinavian scare story has reignited nuclear safety fears in the region.
Sure, these incidents have caused big headlines. But my feeling is that when people hear some of the environmentalists compare them to the Chernobyl incident, they know it is wild exaggerations.
No, you are the one claiming "wild exaggeration", the original claim was 'worst accident since Chernobyl'
Please show how the accident is not the worst from the date of Chernobly till present.
Furthermore, the shutdown of the Swedish nuclear reactors has caused electricity prices to skyrocket. Given the debate these high electricy prices have sparked, I think people will sooner want to start up new plants rather than close existing ones.
Arguing economics over saftey. Please feel free to agrue how safe nuclaer power is. Please explain why nuclear power is uninsurable in the US of A without the Price-Anderson law.
You've made a bunch of claims. Can you back them up with actual facts?
If the incident is the worst since Chernobyl, then it only goes to prove how safe nuclear is. In the Swedish incident the reactor had to shutdown, and one of several redundant systems that should help with the shutdown didn't work properly. But the reactor did shut down successfully without damage or injury.
People like you and me might not be willing to argue economics over safety, but 28 % percent of Norwegians seem to feel safe enough with nuclear that they want nuclear power plants. (article in Norwegian). The same poll (conducted after the leak at the Norwegian facility) shows 65% of the people against nuclear power. This explains why there is no nuclear power plant in Norway, and probably will not be for the foreseeable future.
Will the Norwegian reactors be shut down? This was the impression left by the original article.
->The environmental organizations are certainly pressing for this 1 . (I'm a member of one of them).
But the scientists working at the reactors, want to keep them 2 .
And although a leak is certainly an incident that indicates faulty equipment 3 , the only effect was insignificant leaks to the environment 4 5
Given the fact that the reactors are 39 and 47 years old, they might be due for decommisioning or replacement, which the government will consider in 2008. I fully expect the government to consider the reactors both on their benefits as well as from a safety point of view. Given that my own political party (which opposes nuclear) sanctioned a prolonging of the reactors' operating license when they last were a part of the government, I don't expect the present government (which also includes opponents of nuclear) to apply anything other than facts and realism when deciding the fates of the reactors.
More showing how safe and secure humans should feel with nuclear power can be found here:
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2006/09/12/a-catalogue-of-idiocy/
In some respects a "Duh" insight. Of course !
But how much of the US lacks this basic alternative ? How much, and how long, to retrofit ? Or just scrap "drive only" subruban areas ?
An article about Tampa :-(
http://www.sptimes.com/2006/09/16/Columns/Light_rail_success_ri.shtml
Pre-WWII, the sidewalk infrastructure is likely there, it might consist of narrow non-ADA compliant sidewalks, but its better than the street.
Post-WWII to say the 1990s, it is likely a function of the area. The majority of areas across the country that I've seen lack sidewalks, or even land to put them on. Sometime in the 1990s there was a switch in thinking, and either cities required sidewalks or developers started to put them in. But again, it depends on where this development is taking place.
However, all the above applies only to residential developments. Strip development rarely seems to include sidewalks in the majority of the states.
In summary, I'd say the majority of the development, residential and commercial, after WWII lacks sidewalks, with the pattern changing only in the last decade for some areas.
"How much, and how long, to retrofit?"
More than many cities can afford. And there aren't many state and federal pots of funds to assist (no real dedicated funding source).
"Or just scrap "drive only" subruban areas ?"
In many of these areas the traffic is low enough to make walking on the street practical. And in other areas the streets are wide enough that it should be possible to convert a portion into a walking/biking area. (assuming there is the political will and consensus amongst the neighbors)
However - single family home residential areas are usually low density enough that the street can be (and is) used as a sidewalk. I've seen an extensive move to add more bike paths [expensive wide asphalt sidewalks 10 feet off the road behind some trees] in the last ten years or so in wooded areas as well. Major traffic arteries almost always have sidewalks, and minor traffic arteries usually do.
The ones who get screwed are, ironically, the ones most able to take advantage of walking and mass transit: houses built within walking distance of towns that later got Metro access, which were built without sidewalks. Now they see enough traffic because of the town growing + turning into an economic hub (in part because of the subway) that they find it hard to use the overloaded residential streets to walk on.
It's not really confined to the subway, now that I think of it. The streets that are really begging for sidewalks are 50y+ old ones with no sidewalks, stopsigns, or crosswalks, which had houses built directly on them as well as residential offshoot streets, and later became heavily trafficked. But it's not really for walking around on a daily basis - it's too spread out for that. It's just for survival without a few tons of metal around you. The lack of sidewalks combined with different grades + drainage ditches used by homeowners means you have to change to the other side of the road every 300 yards or so, through dense 40mph traffic. Not owning a car on the road I'm thinking of would be hell. The busses (which otherwise are nice here) don't service those roads because it's impossible to get to the stops easily - my experience walking them comes from when the schoolbus back in high school (with its nice built-in stopsigns) failed to show up and I couldn't procure a ride.
The other alternative is to have the local village or town shovel the walks, but of course, that means raising taxes.
In areas I've lived with no sidewalks but lots of walking people, you get little footpaths worn in the grass. In the snow, those become just part of the snow/dead grass matrix which offers traction, even if you slip on a slippery place, your foot only slips a bit then hits a bit of non packed down snow/dry grass and you're fine. But in climates that get snow, sidewalks are a real hazard in the winter.
Pat Murphy, New Solutions
The handwriting is on the wall - massive change is in the offing - and we are totally unprepared. For this New Solutions we will discuss options for addressing these threats under the rubric of four "plans" arbitrarily labeled A, B, C and D.
http://www.energybulletin.net/20501.html
Plan A - Business as Usual
Plan B - Clean/Green Technology
Plan D - Die Off
Plan C - Curtailment and Community
http://www.energybulletin.net/20501.html
I told you we were overcrowded.
This means Plan D is where we are going.
Being prepared increase the odds of making it through, but it does not guarentee it.
Toronto Star's Peter Gorrie paints a beautiful portrait of the history and future of the Arctic, a tragedy -rapidly- unfolding before our eyes.
There must be someone here who has the data on hand?! Yearly inflation numbers, that sort of thing.
It's turning into sleight of hand, David Copperfield at the Alhambra, but it should be fairly simple. Highest ever was either '73 or '79, and take it from there.
NOTE: inflation numbers are highly dependent on methods used, GDP is a "volatile" construction, as is CPI.
I have no time right now, sorry, but this should go a long way:
Inflation Conversion Factors for Dollars 1665 to Estimated 2016
According to this peak average annual price was $87.65 reached in 1980.
At somepoint, the anti-global warming crowd will do a u-turn, or a large portion will, and some sort of carbon cap will be put into place. Not if, but when.
Some anti-global warming caused by humans crowd will never give up on this point.
- A short term panic reaction to a Gore speech makes no sense, that's not the MO
- Why wait till January? No political gain to be harvested, that's in November. Expect it a month from now at the latest.
Environmentalists like this are either clueless or on someone's payroll. Or both. Either way, they're useless for the very goals they aim for. Green, too, is deader than the disco dodo. A flightless bird on the brink of extinction.A weird quote indeed. Why is a political motivation so terribly unpleasant for a politician, in the eyes of a right wing think tank?
If/when Bush announces a shift on emissions, politics will be a factor, but never without a simultaneous financial goal. They have either figured out a way to make money off emissions cuts (read: massive subsidies), or it is a smokescreen designed to forestall anything meaningful into perpetuity.
For the same reason, they've started talking about Peak Oil: get control.
Why include such a thing in the January speech, when the political hay can be reaped by merely 'leaking' the intent to do so in September?
Aren't these deathbed conversions fascinating? (Of course, I'm not referring to Mr. Bush's demise but instead a worldwide ecosystem about to go on life support and the lethal consequences that portends for many in the business community.)
Will it be obvious to rank and file Americans that such conversions reflect a new mandate by the markets to protect their interests? Even The Economist is jumping on the bandwagon.
It is a good thing that An Inconvenient Truth is providing Americans with the details behind global warming. However, Gore does not address the unsustainable growth paradigm for which, as a prominent politician, he has been an ardent cheerleader.
Gore fails to acknowledge his complicity in promoting globalization and aiding a process of concentrating economic and politic power such that more and more people are dependent on goods and services made in far away locations and in the most highly entropic manner.
How much of the new U.S. campaign to stop global warming will focus exclusively on saving drowning polar bears and "saving the planet" without addressing the need to reorganize society and its priorities?
I'm happy to see I'm not the only one who sees the naked emperror that Gore is. I wrote a review of the book, not the film, this summer, and chose to omit my final thought, because it still is good that people see the film or read the book, and who am I to scare them away?
The crucial point is where he starts talking about business opportunities in emissions cuts, like there's a lot of money to be made, and excellent growth to be had, something like that. Anything goes for a profit, and that includes Gore.
I'm sure Bush will be pushing hard on nukes, rather than for conservation or any serious change in consumer lifestyles. And of course the government will give huge subsidies to the nuclear industry, which will in turn give the government lots of campaign contributions.
I have my doubts about whether something like nuclear energy will even help with these problems. It might just make them worse.
Construction started in 2001, so just over 5 years start to finish :-)
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_4351562
Below is a list of projects that can, IMHO, be started in 1 to 3 years after a commitment is made.
New York City - 2nd Avenue Subway, 3rd Tunnel under Hudson, Penn to Grand Central connection, Staten Island Light Rail
Los Angeles - Red Line "Subway to the Sea", Vermont Avenue subway, over 100 miles of Light Rail
Washington DC - Dulles extension, Purple Line, 40 miles of streetcar lines
Miami - 103 miles of elevated Rapid Rail (subway type), Miami Beach streetcar (already locally funded) 90% of the population would be within 3 miles of a station and half within 2 miles of a station.
Denver - 117 miles of Light Rail and Commuter Rail (already locally funded)
Salt Lake City - 90 miles of Light Rail, streetcar and Commuter Rail (vote soon to accelerate)
San Jose - BART extension, several Light Rail extensions
Minneapolis-St. Paul - Central Light Rail connector between the cities
Atlanta - Beltway Light Rail or streetcar, Northern Light Rail extension
Portland - Green Line (both routes, one funded, other "studied" for future build)
Austin - Two Light Rail Lines plus Commuter rail and streetcars
Dallas - All plans through 2015 and all 2015-2030 options (roughly 145 mile system)
Houston - All plans voted for Phoenix - 90 miles of Light Rail already approved
Pittsburgh - Two Light Rail Lines north from current, under construction line
St. Louis - All plans evaluated, perhaps 100 mile system
San Diego - Light Rail spur to North, another to West
San Francisco - New TransBay tunnel, trolley line, BART extension, eBART
Baltimore - East-West Light Rail Line, 4 mile extension to current subway
Buffalo - Planned extensions to current light rail subway
Boston - All rail plans promised as offset to "Big Dig"
Charlotte - All plans currently scheduled
Cincinnati - Plans voted down
Tampa - 1992 and later plans
New Orleans - Desire Streetcar Line
Once the storage tanks are full...you have to move the product...fear factor or not. So down comes the price. JMO.
Ref taken from top of the Drum Beat post.
I've been mentioning for several weeks now that El Nino controls our northern hemisphere climate - including hurricanes.
What this article doesn't mention is that hurriacnes disipate heat from the oceans, and so, when the wind doesn't blow the oceans just get warmer and warmer - and that is hurricane fuel.
If these conditions hold we will get NO hurricanes in the Gulf this year. Here in Florida (Pensacola) we are having an early fall. Temps are a bit lower than last year, highs in the mid 80's and usually in the 60's at night.
If these conditions hold we will have no hurricanes this year and the sea temperature in the Gulf next year will be about the same as this year.
Sea temperatures are only one factor in how severe a hurricane season is. Two other factors are the location of the high and low-pressure areas and how far south and where the jet stream dips.
But of course the real cause of ALL hurricanes these days is HAARP.
Joke, joke, joke, that's a joke folks. I am not that stupid, like a lot of other conspiracy theorists I know.
Ron Patterson
Temps today in Aberdeen > 20 C - very very warm and humid for this time of year.
Mexico Update: US State Dept warns of brutal violence in Mexico. This BBC link has photos of the AMLO rally in the Zocalo.
The Burgos gasfield is ramping up production, but this is insufficient for 'infinite growth' as Mexico now receives LNG imports from Nigeria. Lastly, the oilfind in the Jack oilfield has increased Mexico's own deepwater hopes to a possible 51 billion barrels.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hmmm...Is it just me, or is this possibly deja vu all over again?
OPEC casts a dark eye on the greening of energy
It's July 2006.
A Dutch company, Trafigura, has rented a ship, the Probo Koala, from a Greek owner. There is an criminal investigation ongoing in Holland into Trafigura's role in the Iraq food-for-oil scandal. At this point in time, years after, that means that there is proof that's hard to prove.
The ship carries a Panamanian flag and is docked in Amsterdam. The cargo is 581 tons or more of highly toxic gasoline and cleaning waste, the leftovers of scrubbing tankers. Caustic soda et al.
The intention is to "dump" the waste in Amsterdam. However, because of the high hydrogen sulfide content, yes, that's rotten eggs, and that smells, the ship is banned from the Amsterdam port before it can dump its load. Holland has closed its only facility to process this type of waste long before. So what was the ship doing there? Amsterdam has no seaport, for one thing.
Anyway, it then, in August, goes on a trip via Estonia (?!) to Ivory Coast.
There, the waste is disposed of, in 10 or more sites, at least some of them in residential areas. So far 7 people have died from the fumes, while reports put hospital visits at 26.000 to date.
The Ivorian government has resigned, which endangers the UN brokered fragile peace accord, meant to halt the neverending civil war. The Transport minister a few days later gets pulled out of his car and seriously injured by a mob, which also burns the car and throws up roadblocks. And forces him to inhale the toxic fumes.
Today, an international effort has started to clean up the toxic sites in the country. However, much of the waste is "known" to have been dumped in "unknown" places. 581 tons is a lot. The government has been reinstated, minus the Transport minister.
Who said yesterday that our middle class lifestyle feeds a lot of poor people?
It wasn't I that said it, that's for certain.
Justice will come -and it will not be pretty.
Good post! Reminds me of Bhopal, India and other places. A few years ago, NYC had a train loaded with about 100 tanker cars loaded with raw sewage, and nobody wanted it. I think it traveled over most of North America before some area agreed to take the load. Speaking of trains: I recommend everyone read this link called "Surviving the Train of Death":
---------------------------------------
I was tense, filthy, in near constant fear of being robbed, beaten or raped. In the south, I faced intense heat, at 105 degrees the metal cars were too hot to touch. In the north, it was so cold that ice formed on the cars. I was pelted by hail, exhausted. At times I felt as if I was at my breaking point, and yet at end of each ride, I went to a motel, I slept in a bed, and ate a meal. Enrique spent months sleeping in tall clumps of grass by the tracks, in sewage culverts, begging or foraging for food. He went two days without water. He drank from dirty cattle toughs. Other children I saw would filter ditch sewage through their t-shirts to get some liquid. Some described going up to five days without food, falling off the train because they were weak with hunger. My train rides gave me a glimmer of how difficult this was for these children.
-------------------------------------
I expect this to be very commonplace by 2030 for most Americans, but hopefully we will do better.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
PDF
Right Click save as:
http://tinyurl.com/gxo9m
==AC
I do. I think all TODers should examine this PDF. The 45 degree cut beam in the photo is mind-boggling.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Go jump off a cliff.
Go jump off a cliff."
Oh yes it's because of people like "me". It has nothing to do with how their "meat" is wired.
Hurin do yourself and anyone that might possible care about you a favor and put the business end of a .357 in your mouth and pull the trigger. If you have children I'm sure they would be happier with that than to have to live with the fact that their father is a coward...
==AC
I had an epifany some years back when debating a conspiracy loon who was claiming that the moon landings never took place. I easily countered his arguments, but I wasn't making any headway, he wouldn't budge and just kept on inventing new arguments until I gave up debating him.
Afterwards I wondered why on earth, or in this case the moon, an otherwise intelligent guy like that would believe such nonsense. Thats when I realised it wasn't about the moon landings at all, same as its not about 9/11 to you, soccer to those who think the world championship in 1958 never took place, or JFK to those who think Lee Harwey Oswald didn't do it.
You see, the guy I was debating wasn't what you would call a success, things had not worked out for him. The job in the IT industry he was educated for had never materialized, he had been unemployed for a long period of time, and was starting to look like bum. He could probably easily have gotten a job, one of those where you sweep floors at odd hours, but I guess he just felt that was beneath him.
Of course the guy wouldn't give up on his conspiracy. It was all he had left, if I took that away from him, he really would be a bum. But thanks to the conspiracy he was able to imagine himself as some sort of knight fighting the forces of evil.
Those of you who have met conspiracy loons in person. Have you ever met one with success in life. I bet none of you have.
;-)
BTW
The suspense is killing us please tell us how successful you are. I'm sure it makes you feel like you have a larger penis than the next guy to be able to "strut" your stuff so openly. Com on, wip it out...
==AC
http://tinyurl.com/gxo9m
Hurin do you think you could point the same narrow minded thought process that you spewed above at Dr Steven Jones and his work?
Is Jones a unsuccessful looser like your "friend". Does Jones applying the scientific method to the collapse of the WTC buildings offend you? Should he not do it because somebody thinks we never landed on the moon? Should we just blindly trust a government agency like NIST because what they tell us makes us feel better?
I've been researching this for awhile and this is basically what it boils down to. It seems individuals have so much bias when it comes to 9/11 that it is almost impossible to look at the events objectively. Love of country, trust in the sysytem, religion, the word "conspiracy" etc etc. If you were to wipe out all your emotions and look at the evidence as it is presented you would have to include possible explosive demolition as a cause of the collapse of AT LEAST ONE of the buildings. But because of the bias people just get angry and dismiss it out of hand. They don't want the truth they just want to be safe. Let's take this New York Times article for an example. So in WTC 7 steel members have been evaporated. Hmm interesting one might say;
ENGINEERS ARE BAFFLED OVER THE COLLAPSE OF 7 WTC
http://www.geocities.com/streakingobject/07NYTimes7WTCwhy.html
"STEEL MEMBERS HAVE BEEN PARTLY EVAPORATED"
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/29/nyregion/29TOWE.html
"A combination of an uncontrolled fire and the structural damage might have been able to bring the building down, some engineers said. But that would not explain steel members in the debris pile that appear to have been partly evaporated in extraordinarily high temperatures, Dr. Barnett said."
=========Now if one was not completely and utterly bias against the possibility of explosives, and all the inevitable baggage that would come with that realization, evaporated steel members most likely would result from an explosive or other accelerant like thermate. Not from diesel fuel. It could be easily tested, and evaporated steel from diesel fuel doesn't stand up to historical evidence. Have steel members ever melted before in a building due to hydrocarbons? If the hydrocarbon fire evaporated the steel [which it wont] and caused a collapse initiation would it lead to global collapse? Of course it has never happened before in the history of modern steel construction [not including the three exceptions on 9/11 itself] so some test might be in order. The problem is the test they perform never can recreate the results of WTC 7. Of course the results could be achieved with the use of an accelerant or explosives. But that has been dismissed out of hand do to the negative connotation explosive bring to the table.
So what does the biased person do with such a conundrum? Well they discount the explosive theory immediately because why that would be just ludicrous. Completely impossible why even look consider it? So right away it is eliminated by any agency that is going to look into the collapse. So they work on fairy tails, anything but explosives. Why it may have even been GOD himself that used energy that etch his image into the Shroud of Turin; ANYTHING but explosives. PLEASE NO EXPLOSIVES!!
Hurin you can make you little world feel safer by calling others unsuccessful failures and lumping any 9/11 critics into the same lot as believes of any ridiculas "conspiracy theory" you can dig out of your ass. Hey and if it helps in your reproductive success your genes will "agree" with you. But if you ever become a man and can face a strong dose of reality download Jones's paper and tell me where he went wrong. I would love to hear it. And don't worry about what the other lemmings will say about you. Everything will be alright...
To most of us nothing is so invisible as an unpleasant truth. Though it is held before our eyes, pushed under our noses, rammed down our throats- we know it not.
~Eric Hoffer
==AC
I almost forgot. TOD lemmings the NIST is going to consider a possible explosion event for WTC 7. Don't hold your breath though...
14. Why is the NIST investigation of the collapse of WTC 7 (the 47-story office building that collapsed on Sept. 11, 2001, hours after the towers) taking so long to complete? Is a controlled demolition hypothesis being considered to explain the collapse?
When NIST initiated the WTC investigation, it made a decision not to hire new staff to support the investigation. After the June 2004 progress report on the WTC investigation was issued, the NIST investigation team stopped working on WTC 7 and was assigned full-time through the fall of 2005 to complete the investigation of the WTC towers. With the release and dissemination of the report on the WTC towers in October 2005, the investigation of the WTC 7 collapse resumed. Considerable progress has been made since that time, including the review of nearly 80 boxes of new documents related to WTC 7, the development of detailed technical approaches for modeling and analyzing various collapse hypotheses, and the selection of a contractor to assist NIST staff in carrying out the analyses. It is anticipated that a draft report will be released by early 2007.
The current NIST working collapse hypothesis for WTC 7 is described in the June 2004 Progress Report on the Federal Building and Fire Safety Investigation of the World Trade Center Disaster (Volume 1, page 17, as well as Appendix L), as follows:
* An initial local failure occurred at the lower floors (below floor 13) of the building due to fire and/or debris-induced structural damage of a critical column (the initiating event) which supported a large-span floor bay with an area of about 2,000 square feet;
* Vertical progression of the initial local failure occurred up to the east penthouse, and as the large floor bays became unable to redistribute the loads, it brought down the interior structure below the east penthouse; and
* Triggered by damage due to the vertical failure, horizontal progression of the failure across the lower floors (in the region of floors 5 and 7 that were much thicker and more heavily reinforced than the rest of the floors) resulted in a disproportionate collapse of the entire structure.
This hypothesis may be supported or modified, or new hypotheses may be developed, through the course of the continuing investigation. NIST also is considering whether hypothetical blast events could have played a role in initiating the collapse. While NIST has found no evidence of a blast or controlled demolition event, NIST would like to determine the magnitude of hypothetical blast scenarios that could have led to the structural failure of one or more critical elements.
http://tinyurl.com/k3go8
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me.
Is there anyone home?
Come on, now.
I hear you're feeling down.
Well I can ease your pain,
Get you on your feet again.
Relax.
I need some information first.
Just the basic facts,
Can you show me where it hurts?
There is no pain, you are receding.
A distant ship's smoke on the horizon.
You are only coming through in waves.
Your lips move but I can't hear what you're sayin'.
When I was a child I had a fever.
My hands felt just like two balloons.
Now I got that feeling once again.
I can't explain, you would not understand.
This is not how I am.
When I was a child I caught a fleeting glimpse,
Out of the corner of my eye.
I turned to look but it was gone.
I cannot put my finger on it now.
The child is grown, the dream is gone.
I have become comfortably numb.
Is there anybody out there?
Is there anybody out there?
Is there anybody out there?
Is there anybody out there?
~Pink Floyd
http://tinyurl.com/gxo9m
Wow! This is compelling stuff.
Can anyone explain to me why the folks that are trying to get at the truth about 9/11 can't get any traction in your country?
I mean, aren't we looking at Bush, Cheney, Rice, and Rumsfeld standing buck naked before the world, with no one in the US MSM even willing to acknowledge a lack of sartorial splendor?
My guess is that most of us don't believe those idiots are smart enough to pull it off a conspiracy.
9/11 Commissioners Expose Obstructions
Book: Pentagon And FAA Were Not Completely Honest, Giuliani Questions Too Soft
http://tinyurl.com/sxhmw
Take George W for example. No one could act that stupid so it is safe to assume he really is a moron and he had the lest important role in the operation i.e. sitting in front of school children doing what he does best, look stupid. He is the perfect incompetent sock puppet. Why else would they groom him for leadership through Skull and Bones while Bush senior had much better stock to choose from? While all this was going on more competent members of his family took positions in much more important roles. Like Jeb's position in Florida to guarantee the year 2000 election "victory" and Marvin's position on the board of the Securacom security to guarantee a "laps" in security and/or security policy at the WTC complex and/or the airports.
Bush-Linked Company Handled Security for the WTC, Dulles and United
http://tinyurl.com/yxhe
WTC Surveillance Tapes Feared Missing
http://tinyurl.com/d4el3
Heightened Security Alert Had Just Been Lifted
By Curtis L. Taylor and Sean Gardiner
STAFF WRITERS
http://tinyurl.com/mfnko
It is clear even though it is trying to be covered-up that intelligence agencies from multiple countries had assisted in 9/11;
"Following September 11, 2001, more than 60 Israelis were taken into custody under the Patriot Act and immigration laws. One highly placed investigator told Carl Cameron of Fox News that there were "tie-ins" between the Israelis and September 11; the hint was clearly that they'd gathered intelligence on the planned attacks but kept it to themselves.
The Fox News source refused to give details, saying: "Evidence linking these Israelis to 9/11 is classified. I cannot tell you about evidence that has been gathered. It's classified information." Fox News is not noted for its condemnation of Israel; it's a ruggedly patriotic news channel owned by Rupert Murdoch and was President Bush's main cheerleader in the war on terror and the invasion of Iraq.
Another group of around 140 Israelis were detained prior to September 11, 2001, in the USA as part of a widespread investigation into a suspected espionage ring run by Israel inside the USA. Government documents refer to the spy ring as an "organised intelligence-gathering operation" designed to "penetrate government facilities". Most of those arrested had served in the Israeli armed forces - but military service is compulsory in Israel. Nevertheless, a number had an intelligence background." http://ww1.sundayherald.com/37707
It may be also interesting to noted that newsweek reported that some of the men that were most likely duped into getting on the planes were trained on US instilations:
Alleged Hijackers May Have Trained at U.S. Bases
The Pentagon has turned over military records on five men to the FBI
http://tinyurl.com/8tb4j
Archived at Newsweek:
http://tinyurl.com/8zdyv
It's not like the Joint Chiefs never had their hands in planning terrorist attacks against the United States to further more lofty goals:
"N E W Y O R K, May 1, 2001 In the early 1960s, America's top military leaders reportedly drafted plans to kill innocent people and commit acts of terrorism in U.S. cities to create public support for a war against Cuba.
Code named Operation Northwoods, the plans reportedly included the possible assassination of Cuban émigrés, sinking boats of Cuban refugees on the high seas, hijacking planes, blowing up a U.S. ship, and even orchestrating violent terrorism in U.S. cities." http://tinyurl.com/64r7m
I know I know it all means nothing. No smoking gun right? I kind of like the GOD theroy with the crazy old guy zapping the steel stucture out of the WTC towers with mystrious energy from above. It's not so scary and much easier for people to believe...
;-)
==AC
Hunter Thompson said it best:
"It's sort of a herd mentality a lemming-like mentality. If you don't go with the flow you're anti-American and therefore a suspect."
You would be better off walking the streets of Baghdad at 2:00 in the morning than be labeled anti-American on the streets of Amerika. It's the Mark of Cain for us professional consumers!! No one wants the truth they only want to be safe.
"The average man does not want to be free. He simply wants to be safe."
~ H.L. Mencken
That is why we will give up so much...
==AC
http://tinyurl.com/hrf6z
==AC
Highlight of Democratic energy policy:
cfm in Gray, ME
That may be the case only if you exclude the US. The US has a "great" track record with refraining from using nukes. I shouldn't be so sarcastic; I forgot we are always "saving the free world" when we incinerate cities full of civilians.
"What's more, nuclear weapons would be in the hands of religious fanatics who believe they have a divine duty to bring about the apocalypse that would lead to the End of Days."
Sounds like he is talking about evangelical christians here.
"Against millenarian fanaticism glorying in a cult of death, deterrence is a mere wish."
A death cult!! Again it souds like he is talking about christianity.
"Every city in a resource rich country will live under the specter of instant annihilation delivered by missiles from The United States."
This is what the "rest of the world" lives under now except replace terrorist with The United States. Even though terrorist and The United States is one in the same.
It should read:
"Every city in a resource rich country will live under the specter of instant annihilation delivered by missiles from The United States."
Now that would be an honest news report.
I love propaganda like this. Give me more.
Don't worry about peak oil so much my friends. What our rulers have planned for us is going to be much worse in the near term...
==AC
The first:
"Every city in a resource rich country will live under the specter of instant annihilation delivered by missiles from The United States."
Should have been this quote from the article:
"Every city in the civilized world will live under the specter of instant annihilation delivered either by missile or by terrorist.
My bad.
==AC
"It's [The Amerikan mentality] sort of a herd mentality, a lemming-like mentality. If you don't go with the flow you're anti-American and therefore a suspect."
Hunter S. Thompson