DrumBeat: July 5, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 5, 2006 - 9:40am
Kuwait’s opposition alliance, which swept to victory in parliamentary elections on June 30th, will reject a government plan to raise oil production capacity in the light of reports that the country’s reserves are half the official figure, a leading opposition MP said.“We will work to introduce key changes to the government oil policy in a bid to halt plans that aim to raise oil production, because such plans are unnecessary,” liberal MP Abdullah Al Nibari said.
A group of lawmakers in the previous parliament had submitted a bill that would limit Kuwait’s annual production to 1% of proven reserves.
Based on official reserve figures this would freeze Kuwait’s production at 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), scuppering its plans for a massive production increase.
But if lower, more conservative figures are taken into account—as some opposition leaders want to—then Kuwait would have to halve its current production, which would drive world prices higher.
Jesse Jackson Leads Anti-BP March
High energy costs hurting industry in the U.K.
Mayo Clinic collides with coal trains.
The search for alternatives is heating up...
In the U.S.: Search for New Oil Sources Leads to Processed Coal
In Indonesia, they're making biodiesel out of palm oil. But it can't compete with subsidized petroleum, and environmentalists see it as an excuse to log the rainforest.
In Vietnam, they're making biodiesel out of catfish.
The U.S. is soon to be a A nation of 300 million.
The USA is closing in on a milestone that seemed unthinkable 25 years ago. Sometime in mid-October, we will become a nation of 300 million Americans.We will then embark on a relatively quick journey to 400 million. Target date: around 2040.
How did this young country get so big so quickly? Immigration, longevity, a relatively high birth rate and economic stability all have propelled the phenomenal growth. The nation has added 100 million people since 1967 to become the world's third-most populous country after China and India. It's growing faster than any other industrialized nation.
Update [2006-7-5 10:12:46 by Leanan]: Ex-Enron chief Kenneth Lay dead of heart attack.
Update [2006-7-5 11:51:52 by Leanan]: Oil rigs leaving Gulf of Mexico, driving up prices
Oil rigs are leaving the Gulf of Mexico in record numbers, threatening to put upward pressure on U.S. oil and natural gas prices, according to a report published Wednesday.Drilling companies are increasingly signing long-term deals with oil firms to send their rigs to more promising drilling regions overseas, said the Wall Street Journal.
Go north, young man: Canada taps tough-to-obtain oil
Oil sands development is both more difficult and labor intensive than conventional oil drilling....As development accelerates, Canadian companies expect to exhaust domestic supplies of trained oil-industry craftsmen.
"I believe we will be drawing on the American workforce. Americans have the skills to build these projects," says Camarta.
Update [2006-7-5 13:56:20 by Leanan]: Oil jumps to record trading high of $75.40 on worries about Iran, North Korea.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=amxMOFKzMVUo&refer=latin_america
... I find the Korea/oil connection kind of strange, actually.
Maybe there'd be a higher general fear factor if people thought Korea was going to start any kind of war .. but I haven't heard that either.
Then again, a lot of 'stuff' passes through that area, so you would expect to see price rises for many security-traded items.
I would stick with the Kuwait explanation.
The one long range missile failed, and the other six are upgunned SCUDS, so they have little accuracy. A scare tactic.
Yes.
More oil for the rest of us.
The way oil (or any other futures) market works has little to do with fundamentals of supply and demand. As John Maynard Keynes pointed out back in 1936, speculative markets depend on what speculators think other speculators will do. He has a very amusing passage on this topic, and BTW was a highly successful speculator himself.
When and if I speculate, I dump all my econonic knowledge in the garbage and tap deep into what I know of social psychology (of panics, mob behavior, mass hysteria, delusions, feverish overheating of tulip markets, etc.).
We can probably compile a long list of irrationally exuberant moves by "the market" to contradict those who believe that the market acts rationally. Yes, the 2001 dot.com bust and Tulip fever are part of that list as well as the build up of stock values during the roaring 1920's, but numbers one, two on my list are:
Frankly, I think we should be shrinking our current road system, not expanding it. Let's convert part of those 12+ lane freeways to bus only lanes that actually get you through the whole city, not half way through, like they had in Denver when I used to take a bus to work there.
Actually, it is worse than that. The education system is teaching the wrong skills and knowledge for a post peak world while, at the same time, using information appropriate to children, i.e., dumbing down the little, meaningless crap that is taught. At some point, people will look back (well, at least old farts like me hope they will look back) and realize that "shop" and "home economics" were far more important than diversity training.
I would also include living on credit (both personal and agency/government) on the list list.
Todd
4 July, 9 am Brent August contract was $73.49
5 July, 9 am Brent August contract was $72.97
But if the truth ever is revealed by Kuwait, this will hopefully, cast a shadow of doubt about the rest of Middle East reserves. Then, then, then perhaps a little common sense will seep through the thick skulls of all those cornucopians who see no peak in sight.
http://www.itp.net/business/news/details.php?id=21237&category=
(Same link as above)
Correct, N. Korea and his fat leader have nothing to do directly with oil, but not too many TOD readers are from either Japan or S. Korea. They are not happy, hence the increase in the price of oil.
I need the help of the TOD community.
We (Crisis Energética and AEREN) have translated our own Peak Oil Primer to English:
The Oil Peak and the World (pdf file, 2,5MB).
We would be very grateful to hear your opinion about this document, its contents, the translation (is there something that sounds strange), etc.
We intend to print some copies and we would be bringing some of them to ASPO in Pisa, so I would like to hear your opinion before that.
Many thanks!!!
Not Found
The requested URL /ficheros/The_Oil_Peak_and_the_world.pdf was not found on this server.
http://www.crisisenergetica.org/ficheros/The_Oil_Peak_and_the_World.pdf
In looking at it, it dawned on me that there is a difference between The World As We Each Individually Know It (TWA-WEIKI) and The World As We Should Collectively Know It.
What does that mean?
Well look each of our 6,500 million citizens and how he or she sees that world from his/her viewpoint:
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/business/business.php?story=196901
Link courtesy of Energybulletin:
Pre-emptive Energy Security otherwise known as Might is Right
but I think it really puts a gun to congress' head. It says fix the nation's energy problems, of face this.
BTW, lots of "end of oil" references in the footnotes.
It's PDF, and needs the Adobe Reader to be installed.
Thanks.
These two premises seem to quite contradict themselves, at least in the foreseeble future. If we are going to rule one of them out the obvious choice would have to be carbon sequesteration, IMO. Add to this that most of the carbon would still be released from the liquid fuel itself, and that sequesteration eliminates other sources of heat for the process (NG for example) and the CS part turns into an empty sound aimed to please the GW aware public.
The liquid fueled auto needs to be erased from the future.
***
Imagine the PRECEDENT if a democatically elected parliament decides to limit output to that which it perceives to be in its long-term national best interest.
There could be a line of other countries itching to do the same thing ... lower production, longer life, higher prices!
Best,
Matt
How well stocked is your retreat now?
Want to hire me as a consultant and tennis coach? :=)
Therefore we (the developed/oil-consuming nations) don't have the slightest interest for a true democracy to step in the oil-producing countries (see SA, Russia, Nigeria etc.).
Which does not prevent us from criticizing those same countries all the time for their lack of democracy and/or human rights.
Talk about double talk :)
In regard to our balance of trade deficits, what's to worry? We can always print more dollars. If people want to give us oil and good stuff for wallpaper, hey daddy, that's a good deal!
good to see you back, I haven't been posting much lately myself. have been really damn busy. It's kind of a long story
Best,
Matt
I sent him an eMail with my 10% Plan. Plant enough seeds and some will come up ! :-)
RR
"Fort Worth's New Noisy Neighbors: Gas Derricks
Sitting atop a massive natural gas supply, the city is issuing permits for wells in residential areas. Some folks know the drill all too well."
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-drill5jul05,0,6334374.story?coll=la-home-headli nes
Except, with this being Alberta, it's laced with highly toxic H2S.
Luckily Compton application was refused, but with the coming pressure on natural gas markets, one day there will be a sour gas well(s) in Calgary, and god forbid if anything goes wrong.
Amercia becoming a "thrid world nation" because we have gone to bicycles and motorbikes instead of cars. Which I think is Hogwash, but that aside. A family friend stopped by to chat last night, his parents were some of the "Originals" in this neighborhood when my folks became "Newcomers" 29 years ago. He has been researching starting his own little business. A Pedi-cab for weekends and Holidays to give people rides from far flung parking to the places they want to go. As he said last night, "My only discision now is what colors I want to choose." He will be buying for one of two USA Pedi-cab makers. My dad was even thinking onw would be nice.
We are in need for more thinking like this. Small Business ideas, that don't use gas to get around. Sure there are imputs in the process that are from fossil fuels, but so are most of our day to day living.
Several thoughts are hammering me right now.
One idea I threw at my dad, right as he was going to bed, Hey could you make a wood one of these? Weight would be an issue, but hey it was a thought, not a solution.
There was mentioned in a column in PM a 3 wheeled scooter that a Japanese company had come out with, 2 wheels on the front using a paralellegram suspension system to allow a 40 degree tilt for turning. In production in Japan soon for Export.
Build a few car free cities with roads only for pedi-cab and bike traffic, nothing else.
North Little Rock and it's bigger sister Little Rock have been adding lots of downtown features, pushing for a total rebuild of the downtowns. The Clinton Library, New ball parks, New stadiums, Historic Districts on both sides of the river. Even a Trolley line serving both sides of the river. They have talked about a light rail for years, but I have not looked into what has gotten done about it.
Things are looking up for more walking less driving. Except for the fact that the whole Central Arkansas region is like one big spread out city now, Several counties wide.
And Last but not least.
I never stop being nice to strangers, my family and freinds almost expect it of me, but its strangers that need it more than those close to you, they are the ones that might need the smile, and door opened for them. Being Niceness is not a chore if you do automatically no matter what.
They have them in Skagway Alaska too ... fit young riders hauling heavier older tourists from the cruise ships into town ... quite the image.
I will tell him the if he gets his charm and facts up to par he can make a lot more than stocking shelves in a hardware chain.
Actually I think technically we will meet the challenges of peak oil but only for a few.
That's the underlying problem we can have advanced solutions but there expensive and I assure the few that can afford it, it won't be the whole population of the US but a small fraction of those that currently enjoy the good life.
Theres plenty of oil once a good fraction of americans and europeans are forced into poverty.
The ony real issue is that the road infrastructure will not be maintained for the elite forcing them to use the 4WD in the SUV's and worse get the dirty on occasion.
memmel, the future mode of transport for the elite is already here -- the private jet. They'll be able to hopscotch from one gated community to another, without getting dirty at all.
Actually in a weird kind of way flying would probably actually become more resonable. There is no reason for large corporations not to subsidize a more extensive fleet of fuel efficient planes to handle needed flights.
Bypassing the current civilian airline industry.
As long as civilization exists some will have to fly.
I think for the rest of us the cattle haulers for major routes will continue to fly with trains to the regional cities.
Ship travel may come back for more mundane travel.
Hell we might get more vacation time alloted since travel times would proabably at least double.
And he has done the effort to make a coherent story. One story, Let's hear others.
A while back I wrote a little science (?) fiction on solving the mess we are in. In it I had the science people do the science, the engineers do the engineering, the economists do something sane in economics instead of the vodoo we have now, and the psychologists and so on; everybody solved their little part of the puzzle, and a committee of the wisest people in the world (almost all of whom were grandmothers) put it all together and shook it around until it fit. And so we all lived happily ever after.
No one has to be perfect to make a real contribution.
Pretty please with sugar on top, post your story where we can read and comment on it (not necessarily on TOD, though you could do 500 word daily installments).
If you show us yours, I'll show you and others my science fiction novels. Should we start a new science fiction site linked to TOD?
Why not?
It hardly matters at all what the scientists and engineers think about anything.
What matters is what the people who own and control resources (which includes but is not limited to money) think. And they do not think like scientists and engineers. These people truly understand what power is all about; most scientists and engineers do not. Engineers and scientists can't seem to come to grips with the fact that there is nothing rational or logical about the ways of power. Power is power, period.
So, one cannot lay too much blame at the feet of scientists and engineers ..... because, for the most part, they are merely the hired help.
Though it may be an old cliché, you can't go too far wrong in finding out what is really going on by following the money. That will tell you who is doing what to whom and why.
Technology, or the lack thereof, is hardly the limiting factor in our collective well-being. Human nature is, and, sadly, that is not going to change any time soon.
And here it comes again to the interdisciplinary approach: for the economist PO is economic problem; for the geologist it is a geological problem, for the politic a political problem etc. While indeed it is all of them together. What I hope for is, broadly speaking physicists, economists and politics to start living all in the same world. After all the long-term survival and well being of our species is a thing of common interest, isn't it?
The title was "The Report of the Millennium Jubilee Committee", which kinda gives away the tone and the plot. Fun to write. Cathartic. Harmless. I'll put it on my website. Anybody is free to steal it.
Don. Welcome back. I presume you were at an ashram on K2, striving for wisdom on things like modesty, understatement, forbearance, brevity, reticence, and we all know what else.
As for me, I would like to see econ become an experimental science instead of alchemy. You could look for things going on places and ways that might approximate a controlled experiment, and/or cook up simulations that might approximate the enormously complex interactions of the real world.----?
Ho, Ho. How you gonna simulate that nut in North Korea???? Or the guy in Kansas in his huge pickup as he goes to get a loaf of bread and a dozen bananas???????
ICBM's are soooo easy. Just a stick with a nice round rock tied to the end of it. That's where we grew up.
It sure would beat wading through the paranoid muck of some of the delusional 1,000+ word rants that for some reason are not edited down on this site.
Again, I suggest, how about an informal limit of 350 words on each comment (or thereabouts).
Fasten seatbelts.
Maybe the next biggest favor for our kids (that we will not do) after a carbon tax would be regulating the oil market.
An occasional spike will scare consumers into "pre-mature" conservation.
Regulation of oil prices would be a TERRIBLE disaster !!
you are leaning on that side of the volatility which favors what you think (and me too) is good for the long term.
Now consider for a moment what will be the long term consequences if Iran fears fade away (very likely IMO), US economy goes belly up (also very much possible) and SA floods the market with sour oil. Oil will very easily hit 10$/barrel for quite a long time and all the projects for electrified rail, super-efficient cars, wind turbines etc. etc. will be abandoned for the indefinite future.
$50 oil would slow things down but not stop long lead time conversions.
Technically you are right in that other commodities like NG have behaved much more unpredictably. What makes oil more special IMO is that both the supply and the demand side seem to be incredibly slow in adapting to the price signals and therefore my idea for some regulations (as broad as possible). For example if OECD makes a long-term agreement with OPEC + Russia for some "price floor" (of say 50-60$), many projects and alternatives which are now still on paper could become true by the time we are past peak and we need them the most.
Markets were closed because of the holiday, so there may have been a lot of pent up anxiety.
I believe Asimov's Foundation concepts of predictive collapse and directed decline are tailor-made for the coming detritus decline to minimize postPeak violence.
IF full FFs transparency can be achieved, and world depletion rate roughly predicted: these tools can provide the basis for Foundation planning as codified in ASPO's Depletion Protocols. The entropic extrapolation to each country down to each distinct habitat is then possible by scientic supercomputer simulation. Overshoot is obvious, optimizing decline is the goal. A gradual evacuation to the lifeboats should be preferred by all, instead of a headlong rush induced by last moment genetic competition and the insurmountable forces of Mother Nature.
I believe the US is in a very precarious position due to our elevated consumptive rate vis-a-vis the world. Our national 'metabolic rate' is like a rabbit running in circles versus other countries, like TODer Magnus Redin's Sweden, or TODer AlanfromBigEasy's expose' on Switzerland, which appear to be planning and moving straight ahead to adopt the methodical turtle strategy. We all know who wins this race.
Migration will be a natural result induced by detritus entropy and global warming, scientists daily document this already occurring among many species as their naturally tight feedback loops with reality force them to proactively seek optimum habitats. Foundation, properly designed and applied, can optimize human migration to minimize the rise of Earthmarines' force application.
Hanson and Kunstler are correct, IMO, that huge Northern migrations from the US lower latitudes are inevitable. As I have posted before, thermodynamic efficiency is optimized by packing a house full of people in a cold climate versus packing a house full of people, then trying to keep them cool with A/C, assuming equal levels of eco-tech design/sq. ft of living space. Global Warming predictions of increased drought and spread of tropical diseases as already evidenced by the West Nile Virus will further impel migration.
Foundation can mitigate the tendency for business as usual until that habitat's Olduvai Crash and last-chance migration. My earlier post went into brief detail of a planned AZ to WA migration. This gradual migration should be preferred to the alternative sudden rise of the State of Cascadia, and/or the state of Jefferson, resulting in a desperate Civil War for Survival [both sides lose as the desired habitat quickly declines below biosolar optimality].
On the international scale: Foundation concepts, judiciously applied, can prevent the '3 Days of the Condor' scenario, freeing every country to seek their individual detritus Powerdown optimality and the resulting Paradigm shift to maximum Biosolar Powerup. This can free the funds from current military assignment to the HELP strategy.
The rich and powerful, if they understand Foundation, should be eager to jumpstart this institution as it is the best way to protect themselves and their families. They have a historic opportunity to jumpstart a scientific process of ecological designers/philosophers that will be seeking to protect all possible species, and humanely reduce our numbers to prevent our genetic tendency towards violence. A world wide understanding that our genes are not our friends to promulgate a yearning for Foundation solutions needs to begin now. Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I said a few weeks ago that the price of oil would pass $75 and that the oil price was not in a bubble - but in an anti-bubble. That is - small events can cause the price of oil to rise upwardly fast.
Even so - we are only one major world crisis away from this presently workable free market system of supply allocation breaking down. After that, I envision national governments everywhere taking control of the entire oil-based energy distribution process. That is, your quota will determine how much gasoline you can get at your local gasoline station.
Perhaps then we will listen to more rational voices on the issue of PO within the US, but I expect even then most will still blame the problems of PO on the Arabs, Russians, Chinese, etc..
Another advantage of setting a controlled price for oil, is that oil producing countries would then be willing to make the necessary investments to develop lower quality crude. The price of oil goes up and down so much now that a country like Venezuela doesn't dare to invest huge amounts in their heavy oil deposits because a decline in the price (which could accompany an economic downturn) could make the whole project a big money loser.
This is similar to Heinberg's proposal, except it has to cover all major industry (everything that uses lots of energy), and to be effective has to be taken out of the hands of the capitalists who are, and must be, interested primarily in maximixing short-term profits. If that sounds like a socialist world state, it is. Nothing else can get us through the crisis (and even this doesn't come with any guarantees). Impossible? You'd be surprised what people can do when they're put in a situation where their lives depend on doing the impossible. But things have to get a lot worse, first.
Thxs for responding. Obviously, if the world's leaders jumpstarted this Foundation, it would be so much easier. Somehow the Japanese leadership started, then directed their people during the 250 years of the largely sustainable Edo period. I think education & MSM needs to massively shift to inform and prepare everyone for the path ahead.
Your Quote: "How do we get an entrenched political system, with a culture that cares more about property values than anything else, to voluntarily give up not only their way of life - but their very homes?
As understanding of the facts of 'our genes are not our friends', Peakoil, Global Warming, Olduvai Theory, etc, quickly spreads, people's value system will change commensurately. Consider the displaced hurricane, tsunami, and earthquake victims worldwide: they accepted their losses, then they seek out the next best place to live. Humans are quite adaptable.
America is a nation of immigrants; a nation always on the move, Foundation concepts can be used to take advantage of this mindset. If supercomputer simulations indicate that multi-millions of Southwesterners [NM, AZ, NV, southern Cal]will head north: the tax codes, zoning laws, and other socio-political constructs can be changed to create a differential to induce a gradual, largely peaceful migration.
In the worst case scenario: the southwest towns rapidly become mostly ghost towns, and the northern areas have vastly insufficient housing of non-optimal design and related infrastructure sprawl. Northern prices go through the roof and/or tremendous violence ensues.
Instead, if the aforementioned created socio-political differential [between N & S] is realistic: it will create an incentive to dis-assemble the southern resources, then move them north with the migrants; like a turtle carries his house on his back, but the northern zoning laws will require those resources to be used in a sustainable manner for permaculture intense, walkable urban areas, highly efficient mass transit, intense recycling...and so on.
Voluntary birth controls should be sufficient if the educational message is widely understood, but if need be, they can be incentivized by offering preferential tax rates or housing location preference to those that procreatively restrain themselves.
So a family of three or four currently living in an unsustainable 3600 sq/ft or larger Phx McMansion with the ubiquitous 3-car garage [and vastly upside down on the mortgage], when moving North would be zoning law required to live in a sustainable eco-tech 800-1000 sq/ft condo with no cars. They would get a material credit for their migrational 'turtle downsizing', and for having the carefully recycled Phx 'large turtle' moved north to help provide 'small turtles' for others and reducing their housing costs. The material credit may be sufficient to set them up with a positive equity mortgage.
Another example: A similar-sized Phx family, living in a mortgage-free smaller house, would get a porportionately smaller material credit, but would get a equity credit that would allow them to buy and be mortgage free, but give them a source of investment funds to open a small shop or store in the walkable community.
The Phx cars would be recycled to provide the steel for the needed northern mass-transit and the other highly efficient infrastructure desired. The fact that minimal cost moving of all these recycled 'turtles' is required would drive the need for rapid rebuilding and expansion of the national electrified railroads for freight and passengers.
The energy savings associated with all this Foundation downsizing, population birth constraints, and HELP implementation may match the depletion rate of the Hubbert Downslope: keeping available energy/capita constant thereby precluding much mindless violence.
Figuring out the proper financial formulas, zoning laws, new urban designs, associated logistics, and other minutiae to drive this sustainable change is beyond my ability to achieve this properly-->that is task of the Foundation.
But I would like to see this discussed much more here on TOD. Input from other TODers could greatly expand and improve my feeble ideas. The much admired TOD data freaks could have great fun presenting graphs of how this could be possible.
Now if we could only get Stuart and Khebab a full top-notch staff of statistical simulation programmers and a world-class supercomputer....I think Asimov would be proud!
Bob Shaw in Phx Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Step 1) Corporate relocations to the Valley slows or stops. Better places to go. Recession as well.
Step 2) Construction slows (except along new light rail line). Since 30% of labor force is in construction they move to where the action is.
Step 3) Empty houses of former construction workers dot neighborhoods, prices plummet. Recession layoffs and construction almost stops. Phoenicians never had deep roots and they "move on".
Step 4) Taxes increase and services plummet as abandoned houses (never built that well) replace "For Sale" houses. Financial crisis due to upside down foreclosures. Established corpoerations pull out. Conversely retirees move in for cheap housing. sunny climate and air is cleaner with fewer people. Only "hot spot" is near light rail line (retirees don't have to drive to get some place, University also on the line). First and second light rail line built. No money for more.
Step 5) Phoenix shrinks by half and becomes what it was, primarily a retirement haven and the services that support retirees. Lower social services and higher taxes though with so much lost population. Many retirees lose their savings in the series of financial disasters. So the retiree population is aging and (largely) impoverished. Pressure on water reduced with half the population but extended summer blackout kills thousands and chases retirees that can move out. Those that earn living servicing them follow them.
Step 6) Phoenix and Arizona in financial crisis. Last corporations move out. Federal help to deal with residual impoverished retired population. They fairly quickly die off. Population finally stabilizes at 250,000 or so and clusters along light rail lines. Growth returns from that low level and reclaims in more renewable ways the rest of town. Perhaps citrus farming old suburbs ?
Financially and physically strong population self migrates. Rest that can struggle out (perhaps Grapes of Wrath type migration). And the weak stay behind and largely die-off.
External events can scramble this scenario (Matthew Simmons is right about depletion cure for example, or timing of depression/financial crisis).
Clearly we have to totally reverse the role of government in allowing and even promoting unsustainable development (thinking mostly about the desert SW here) and towards sustainable communities.
Tax credits and other incentives for large families must also be reduced and even reversed.
The trick is not to heavily penalize those that have already made the wrong choices, least new incentives become deemed politically incorrect. For example, there is already a widespread opinion, not supported by hard facts, that enough oil to sustain the country for many years is just laying there to be found. Tree huggers, environmentalists, and shore communities are the only thing stopping the development of large new oil fields. The same misconceptions will be applied to population control, food production, and technology to combat GW and PO.
Hope we make it through the age of delusion.
Thxs for responding again. I agree with your points.
If the Pentagon can supercomputer wargame all kinds of scenarios involving conflict, I see no reason why a Foundation couldn't supercomputer simulate extensive scenarios for mitigation.
That is my hopeful method to reverse the role of govt to promote sustainability.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thxs for the addition to this discussion--I appreciate your expert input: your familiarity with Phx combined with your vast general infrastructure knowledge.
Do you think a Foundation; a non-politicized scientific effort to mitigate decline by purely ecologic/economic/engineering/etc methods is possible?
The Hirsch Report, among others, urges for mitigation, as does Heinberg. But I fear the growing grass-roots efforts will not be able to generate sufficient political change momentum before the Hubbert Downslope and Olduvai kicks in.
Somehow, someway, it needs to be kicked up to the top-level, and soon.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Not easily. On occasion a set of experts come up with a solution (military base closings come to mind) and then it goes to the politicans to ratify.
I think the smell of pork (see ADM) is just TOO strong now. As we get into deeper troubles, this may happen.
I want to create a national dialogue (TOD is a potential spark for that) and let that influence the politicans.
I do hope and pray for a 2010 peak. The later the better, IMHO. And "sky high" prices ASAP !
By the way, automobile, aircraft, airline, tourism and all other energy intensive industries have been earmarked for extinction.
I'd bet on Toyota and British Airways surviving. Maybe Boeing too as Airbus are in a mess now.
So it looks like Virgin will carry the UK flag.
Does TOD have a view on massive taxes on jet fuel? The French have just introduced a new airtraveller tax.
In addition, airlines pay rent on gates and landing fees (based on a/c weight). In addition that $4.25 airport hamburger ends up supporting the airport, as well as parking fees and every other income source that they can find.
For the half dozen years, aviation taxes pay for the air traffic control system. Basically, aviation "pays it's way".
Corn growers and processors have great political clout in the U.S., and by any reasonable standard, corn prices are now ridiculously low.
Result? Overproduction, year after year after year after year.
Overproduction shifts supply curve down and to the right, thus resulting in lower corn prices.
Q.E.D.
To a man they will tell you the gummint is the enemy and no one but Mr. Big sees the subsidy. Birds gotta swim, fish gotta fly and Iowa/Illinois farmer gotta grow corn.
I remember seeing a slide at a talk some years back showing a section taken through a field where they were doing a new crop on an old corn field. The roots got as far down as the top of the Atrazine layer, then just turned sidways like a horizontal well bore (otherwise they would be in the "killing zone").
This left them too shallow to get at the water table during the dry periods, leading to failure
I suspect that if you are big and grow a lot of corn that you benefit from the farm subsidies much better than a smaller farmer would. I have a fellow alumni from Walla Walla who has a farm in Pomeroy, Washington (Wheat) and I doubt he knows how to grow, but gets $100,000 a year not to. For at lest 30 years worth!
Some would argue that Archer Daniel Midlands (ADM) is the biggest beneficiary to the latest laws passed by Congress on alternative fuels.
IMO you are 100% correct on both counts.