DrumBeat: July 18, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 18, 2006 - 9:35am
Sweltering heat across the U.S. leads to record-setting energy use from New York to California.
In New York, power outages stalled trains yesterday. They are running on reduced service today. LaGuardia Airport suffered a power outage last night.
Oil spike: a surmountable challenge?
The politics of the Middle East are so incendiary that energy analysts are not sure how high prices will rise.
Don't expect the scarcity of fossil fuels to drive us toward alternative energy sources anytime soon: we're getting smarter about finding and extracting oil.
Ford first to offer clean-burning hydrogen vehicles
Senator to introduce landmark bill cutting fossil fuel emissions
Repair of post-Katrina wetlands may hinge on oil
U.K.: The new commuter belt
Fed up with over-priced cities and overcrowded trains? The new breed of commuters are going to fly into work from their homes in Spain and eastern Europe, claims a trendspotting report.
The Big Question: Was the break-up of the railways such a disaster that it needs to be reversed?
Plan? What plan? Alberta's energy future:
It's only 16 pages long and hasn't yet been shared with the public, but Alberta's Integrated Energy Strategy, if adopted as currently drafted, could eventually leave a hefty fossil-fuel footprint on every Canadian business.
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
The thing that was striking, or at least what I remember about it (it was about 4 AM EDT after all), was that he was making the point that ~85 million BPD (and maybe 86 million by the 4th quarter) is the maxiumum amout we will likely ever be able to achieve no matter what the demand is. That it is "sooner" than other experts have predicted didn't seem to be a surprise to him.
( Sidebar: By definition the peak, the summit. Enjoy the view because it's downhill in every direction from here.)
And demand/supply imbalances will raise the price until the demand pressure subsides. But it won't change the maximum.
(Those of us whom have been following this for more than a few years don't find any of this surprising. My own sense of the peak, up to 2004, was that the peak would occur in early to mid 2007. In the meantime, it looked to me that the Bush Administration was hoping that it would occur in the 2009-2010 timeframe, making it SEP. Somewhere in late 2003/early 2004, based upon the data I was watching from the GOM and elsewhere, I became convinced that somewhere in the second quarter of 2006, we would "summit." Have we? I don't know but it sure is looking like it.)
Pickens also admitted he was wrong in the past about the oil sands in Alberta and is now heavily invested in them (he made the point that he's invested with his own money, and invested a few other things).
He has no plans to retire.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/13/autos/autos07.fortune/index.htm
http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/12/news/economy/pluggedin_lashinsky.fortune/index.htm
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/20/news/economy/pluggedin.fortune/index.htm
Is this CNN or Treehugger?
Honda's new Accord 2.2 i-CTDi Sport has this week set no fewer than 19 world speed records and achieved 3.07 litres / 100 km (92 imperial mpg, ~76.6 US mpg) fuel economy to boot. British racing driver Robin Liddell and freelance journalist Iain Robertson were part of the European record-setting team.
Amongst the speed records set, which were all achieved in Production Car Class B (2000 - 2500 cc), were 133.04 mph (1 mile flying start), 84.25 mph (1 mile standing start) and an average speed of 130.38 mph over a 24-hour endurance period. These records were all set at Papenburg high-speed oval test track in north-west Germany on 1 and 2 May, and are all subject to FIA ratification.
Two production cars, randomly selected by FIA officials, were used to undertake the speed records, and apart from the fitting of roll-cages, racing harnesses and radio equipment for track-to-pits communication, no other modifications were made to the cars.
Following the speed record attempts, the same two cars were then driven 419 miles from Papenburg test track to Wiesbaden, near Frankfurt in order to complete the fuel economy run. The route comprised of a mixture of motorway and non-motorway driving, during which one of the Accords achieved a staggering 92 imperial mpg (US mpg=~76.6) average.
I've got a 1991 Accord EX wagon with 275K miles and still going strong, and a 1997 Accord EX wagon that hasn't even been broken in yet at 116K miles.
-best
I sometimes listen to CNBC on XM Radio in the car and at work. So far this morning, I have heard two summaries of Bodman's remarks by CNBC's energy reporter, Melissa Frances.
In the first report, she said that Bodman was predicting that Iraqi production would be up to 3 mbpd by the end of the year.
In the second report, she played a clip of Bodman saying that the US economy was very resilient in the face of rising oil prices.
So far, there was not one single reference to the United States Energy Secretary saying that world oil supply cannot meed demand.
In my opinion, this is a classic case--at least so far--of the Main Stream Media in action, as described in my "Iron Triangle" thesis. (see link below)
http://www.energybulletin.net/15126.html
Another talking head last night on Bloomberg said 18 months of constricted supply and at that point more oil and better transportation of it will come on line.
Clearly no consensus on this point.
Last year, the Texas State Geologist said that Texas may not be able to match its 1972 peak production, but with the use of improved technology, Texas can significantly increase its oil production.
So, I guess that one could argue that there is no "clear consensus" on the Texas oil production decline.
Texas oil production is now down close to 75% from its 1972 peak, and Texas has never shown a year over year increase in production over the past 33 years--despite a frantic drilling program after its initial decline.
Texas, the Lower 48, Total US, Russia and the North Sea have all peaked in the vicinity of 50% of Qt. None of these regions--as in zero, nada, null set--have shown production higher than its peak in the vicinity of 50% of Qt.
The latest EIA data show that world oil production and oil production from the top four net oil exporters are all down since December.
It's a virtual certainty that the world's four largest producing oil fields are all declining.
What part of this is not clear?
To argue in favor of rising oil production, you have to ignore the following: (1) It has never happened in the regions cited and (2) currently world oil production is falling.
So, you can argue in favor of rising oil production, but it is contradicted by historical models and by recent data.
To top it all off, the Energy Secretary says we can't meed demand. Do you think that this is just a coincidence as we cross the 50% of Qt mark, and start showing a decline?
Should read:
"To argue in favor of rising oil production (beyond the peak level in the vicinity of 50% of Qt), you have to ignore the following: (1) It has never happened in the regions cited and (2) currently world oil production is falling."
1977 9.95
1978 10.49
1979 10.88
1980 11.17
1981 11.37
1982 11.48
1983 11.42
1984 11.17
1985 11.00
1986 11.18
1987 11.48
1988 11.56
1989 11.23
1990 10.44
1991 9.32
1993 6.73
If you round up to 11 mbpd, the above data table shows 11 years with production of about 11 mbpd--five years on both sides of 1984.
Khebab's HL plot shows 1984 to be the 50% of Qt mark.
Khebab took only the production data through 1984 to generate a predicted production profile throuth 2004. The actual Russian post-1984 cumulative production was 95% of what the HL model predicted--again based only on production data through 1984.
The same exercise for the Lower 48 showed that post-1970 production was 99% of what the HL model predicted.
(I'm practicing for the Peak Oil debate tonight--interesting timing given Bodman's remarks.)
You make some good points. I am certainly no expert in this field, but I do my homework and have taken the Danish outlook on this that named 2020, granted a few years back, as the true peak point.
We certainly do not argue that it will occur, and relatively soon.
This off Charles Schwab site (and yes, I note the doublespeak in this statement):
Kuwait To Clarify Its Oil Reserves Within Days -Min -2-
1:42 PM EDT July 18, 2006
Sheikh Ali also threw his weight behind the long-delayed $8.5 billion development of its northern-most oilfields, Project Kuwait, which has attracted consortia led by BP PLC (BP), Chevron Corp. (CVX), and ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM).
Kuwait wants to double oil production to about 900,000 barrels a day from four northern fields. This target is a key plank in Kuwait's quest to boost its total production capacity from 2.7 million barrels a day currently to 4 million barrels a day by 2020.
But lawmakers are concerned how increased tax revenues - which currently make-up about two-fifths of the overall economy - from future production will be used.
Sheikh Ali said in the statement: "I'm confident that this strategy was only approved for the interest of Kuwait, and there is nothing" proposed in the plan that undermines Kuwait.
He said upgrading capacity in the north "does not mean an exhaustion of these fields, but develops the efficiency of the fields."
Separately, the minister said oil producers weren't influencing current oil prices.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, he added "will not save any effort to use its available mechanisms to achieve" a balance in the oil market.
-By Adam Smallman, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0) 20 7842 9343; adam.smallman@dowjones.com
Remember the old adage about how something can't become clear whenever a persons livelihood depends upon it not ever becoming clear.
Is there a way you -- or TOD -- could get an article published about this?
I guess in Adbusters such an article would be preaching to the choir, but in Harpers it might reach a few ears for whom it would cause creative disequilibrium, at the very least. Where else might such an article be published?
Sooner or later, even the MSM will crack as a groundswell of awakening people make changes in spite of the Iron Triangle....I think....I hope....
I've long suspected that perhaps the single most traumatic event to occur in modern industrial society will be the dawning upon the great masses of people that the world oil supply is starting to contract. I have absolutely no doubt that TPTB want to push that day as far into the future as they possibly can.
As for the futures comment that Bodman made, its and easy argument to make because it makes an easy target. But futures traders don't by futures contracts to lose money and many (looking at the futures chain out 6-12 months) obviously think the only direction that the price of oil is going is up.
You should tell it in the Intensive Care Unit of your nearest VA hospital.
I'm sure it would cheer up all of the amputees recently back from Iraq.
Come out of your Nzi-word bunker and tell us all how you are proud to be a fan of Hell's Ebola.
p.p.s. Was watching Chris Matthews Hardball show on MSNBC tonight (7/18/06). He asked the Syrian emassador: "How small does Israel have to get before you people leave her in peace?"
The Syrian never answered the question-- a fact that should not escape anyone but the dumbest and most virulently anti-semetic of viewers.
Instead he went into the typical staccato sleeze response: Buh buh buh but why don't you ask me how Israel is bombing our women and children? Buh buh buh but why don't you ask me how Israel smells like my mother's behind? ....
Then Chris Matthews asked the Syrian emassador: "Well what about the Golan Heights? Syrians used that to shoot at innocent Israeli farmers. I've been up there. I've seen the Syrian pillboxes." Answer: "Buh buh buh but this is a typical American delusion. You did not see what you saw. It is only beautiful valleys and pastures and indents in the ground where Syrian farmers feed their sheep. There are no "Heights"."
The 7/18 transcripts should be up soon at this location for 24 hours.
Answer: "Buh buh buh but this is a typical American delusion. You did not see what you saw."
"The Syrian never answered the question." Maybe that's because he was smekhovo.
--Golan Heights Jewish settler Joel Sheinfeld, quoted in the Los Angeles Times, Jan. 4, 1993
Fact: "This oft-repeated claim about Syrian shelling ignores the repeated attacks by Israeli kibbutzniks and border police against Palestinian and Syrian villagers who were indigenous to the Syrian-Israeli demilitarized zone, which led to the shelling in question. The demilitarized zone, set up after the 1947-48 war, consists of three small patches of land along the then Syrian-Israeli border--a total of 66.5 square kilometers--populated by both Arab and Israeli villagers. According to the General Armistice Agreement of 1949, sovereignty over this area was to be determined at a later date, in the context of an overall peace agreement.
"Israel had failed to conquer these areas during the war and was determined to do so gradually in the years that followed, starting as early as 1951. As a result, the U.N. Truce Supervision Organization, assigned to monitor the armistice, recorded thousands of incidents of major and minor clashes across the Syrian-Israeli border, most of which stemmed from Israeli encroachments onto Arab-owned village lands.
"The typical incident involved small groups of Israeli kibbutzniks--armed with weapons illegally brought into the demilitarized zone--moving their tractors or other equipment onto Arab-owned farmlands to use these lands for their own agricultural projects. Arab farmers . . . resisted by firing at whoever or whatever was trespassing on their property, followed by return fire from the kibbutzniks, joined by Israeli border police, on an even larger scale.
"The Syrians, atop the Golan Heights, would then come to the aid of the beleaguered Arab villagers by shelling in the direction of the kibbutz from which the original attack came. This would be followed by Israeli artillery fire and air bombardments, often inside Syria proper. Specific, major incidents include, but are by no means limited to, the 1951 expulsion by Israeli forces of some 2,000 Arab civilians from three villages in the demilitarized zone, never to return, and the 1960 Israeli occupation of the entire village of Tawafiq inside the zone, which soldiers could only enter after cutting through the many layers of barbed wire the villagers had erected to protect their homes and farmland. In this case, it was only Syrian shelling from the Golan Heights that saved Tawafiq; and it was that shelling that finally forced Israeli troops to withdraw from the community.
"These events, and many more like them, have been extensively documented by four consecutive UNTSO chiefs of staff who were responsible for keeping peace and reporting armistice violations on both sides . . . To put this period (1949-1967) in its proper historical perspective, then, what is now termed by Israel's advocates as 'Syrian shelling from the Golan Heights' represents only a portion of what was recorded by U.N. observers at the time as 'mutual exchanges of fire on both sides,' caused mainly by Israel's campaign to gradually annex Arab-owned land inside the demilitarized zone. . .
"It is clear from the historical record that the phrase 'Syrian shelling from the Golan Heights' did not even exist at the time and does not appear in U.N. records. That is because the point of origin--the Golan-- was in itself not relevant, and because the real problem of the time was Israeli land encroachment, of which the Syrian responses were but a result. The phrase, in fact, came into use only after the 1967 war, by people seeking to justify Israel's retention of that particular territory."
--Washington Report on Middle East Affairs
http://www.wrmea.com/backissues/0493/9304041.htm
You tell them.
My advice:
1. Read Benjamin Graham's, "The Intelligent Investor."
Then read it again. I have read it six times, as well as the much more formidable Graham and Dodd book twice.
I'm sure that there will be lots of people telling me that my oil and gas stocks are going to expropriated soon, but I think that there will be plenty of warning about that-- PO is not even in the MSM yet, for crying out loud. In the meantime, my annual returns are running 65% plus, for four years running.
BTW, back in 1961, I bought a few hundred shares of See's Candy shops because I liked their product and loved their stores and seduced women with their chocolate. Some years later Buffett bought up See's for his Berkshire Hathaway Co.
Always invest in what you know.
Hm, wonder what a Class A share of Berkshire Hathaway that came out at $12 is going for today?
I expect Don's American Cafe, Tavern and Trading post to become the start of the first post-Collapse business empire.
For more, see my series of novels:
"The Adventures of C.C. Eggum"
and the sequel,
"Caesar and Kari"
soon to be coming to a website near you.
1962? Man, that was 4 years before I was even born.
I will add a bit to the advice that has been given. I have been investing in health care and biotech for many years. You can make a lot of money off of the Baby Boomer demographic, and they are going to be spending a lot of money on health care. Those investments have done very well.
I also think energy companies are a good place to put your money, but the market perpetually undervalues oil company stocks. But with the supply/demand imbalance, as well as the possibility of an oil peak looming, oil companies are still poised to make a lot of money going forward. That is until the government succumbs to the public outcry and nationalizes the oil companies. ;)
In my opinion oil companies are still being valued as cyclical industries, but it is not clear to me that this paradigm still exists. The cyclical nature is because during good times, refiners overbuild refining capacity and producers overbuild production capacity. I don't think this scenario is even plausible any more, which would mean oil companies won't be cyclical going forward.
Cheers,
RR
- What is the decline of projected production like for that oil company? You want something with LONG LIFE reserves of oil and/or gas.
- How big are they into refining? presumably if oil supplies decline there will be excess refining capacity - so this will be a bad place to invest your money.
- Where is the oil that they produce coming from, if it Nigeria, Iraq, Venezuela and the Gulf of Mexico you might think twice.
- How vulnerable is the company to cost increases?
- Has the company hedged against the oil price - i.e. do you get the benefit of higher prices?
Also be aware that when TSHTF the whole market might go down. If inflation pushes rates materially higher there likely won't be anywhere to hide in the share markets.Regards.
What do you guys think about BPT? Prudhoe Bay Trust
I do not have any experience with oil trusts and would like to know more about them in general and BPT specifically.
I appreciate any info you can share.
Check back for the five-year overall rate of return.
Also, have your accountant do some tax numbers for you.
4. Engage in great gobs of prodigious whoopie.
4. Engage in great gobs of prodigious whoopie.
My e-mail is sunfishsailor@hotmail.com
Hydroelectric utilities pay decent returns today, and likely will tomorrow. Each has it's own risks (drought being one). Each will not deplete in your lifetime. Each indivisual company has it's own risks as well + currency & interest rate risk.
More stock buyers > higher stock price > more investment capital available today > more hydroschemes built
Some specific companies to look at:
Brazil: CIG & CPL on NYSE (Buy Brazil on dramatic downticks. Good buy was when Finance Minister was visiting bordellos and someone else was picking up the tab, another recently when 3rd World equities were abandoned in "flight to quality")
Canada: (ranked by quality IMHO) Innergex, Great Lakes Hydro, Canadian Hydro Development (no dividend), Algonquin (one other that I do not own, B???)
New Zealand: Trustpower
Austria: Verbund
Switzerland: MotoColumbus and many others
Go to http://www.apmex.com
I would buy both gold and silver. If you are a doomer, buy more silver coins (not rounds) otherwise, buy larger bars.
Get yourself a safety deposit box at the bank.
Dig a whole out in the woods somewhere.
Keep a bit in your mattress in case the banks get weird.
.45 Colt automatic
.223 (also known as 5.56 mm)
30-30
30-06
and all shotgun shells.
I like single-shot weapons. To date, I've never needed more than a single shot.
"Gun Control" means using two hands.
90 percent U.S. junk silver in bag lots usually sells at very near spot. The 40 percent clad Kennedy halves often trade at a discount to metal content. There is no conterfeiting that I am aware of ... and whatever else Uncle Sam is guilty of he delivered the stated purity.
In order, I've chosen to invest in 1) getting a cache of supplies together in case something does go seriously wrong (not necessarily PO related), 2) personally becoming more energy-independant, 3) getting rid of debt, and 4) spreading our investments as widely as possible.
I thought that 1 was silly, but since it's cheap if you don't buy a bunch of guns and ammo, I swallowed my pride and did it anyway. 2 is slowly ongoing (started with dusting off my bike for commuting and recently saw us selling our suburban city property, moving to a small town, and buying a large rural property within cycling distance of town). 3 is straight-forward. 4 boils down to: Buy the market, some bonds, some commodities too, and rebalance when necessary.
Presumably, you have the resources for 1, 2, and 3. With those covered you could accomplish 4 by buying half-a-dozen ETFs and checking up on them whenever there are big moves in the markets.
Along these lines you might consider buying a few shares of Berkshire Hathaway class B stock (BRK-B on http://finance.yahoo.com - about $3000 per share today), as well as reading anything you can find written by Warren Buffet (see http://www.berkshirehathaway.com).
In general I would encourage you to read as much as you can and try not to make hasty investment decisions. If you are going to hire an advisor, make sure to do thorough due diligence, including understanding excactly how he or she gets paid. A 1% to 1.5% fee on assets under management is a typical structure, but make sure you are not also paying mutual fund overheads.
I like the voting rights that go with Class A stock, but Class B is fine too.
Also, at the annual meeting, you will encounter thousands of the nicest millionaires on the planet. Many are former janitors, secretaries, neighbors of Buffett from fifty years ago, furniture store clerks, etc.
I do believe Buffett has created more millionaires than has Bill Gates. More than ten thousand, anyway.
Class A shares are nice if you can afford them: they are changing hands for over $90,000 per share today. Buffet doesn't believe in stock splits.
Ethanol, on the other hand, is stable. Expected life of a bottle of Everclear, maybe 50,000 years if kept underground. If I'm mistaken, come back in 50,000 years and tell me how it tastes worse then than now.
With ethanol you can do so many neat things: Rocket fuel, car fuel, napalm substitutes for flame throwers, and you can even drink it if it is not denatured.
An in regard to women, I believe it was Ogden Nash who wrote:
"Candy is dandy, but liquor is quicker."
Some specific companies to look at:
Brazil: CIG & CPL on NYSE (Buy Brazil on dramatic downticks. Good buy was when Finance Minister was visiting bordellos and someone else was picking up the tab, another recently when 3rd World equities were abandoned in "flight to quality")
Canada: (ranked by quality IMHO) Innergex, Great Lakes Hydro, Canadian Hydro Development (no dividend), Algonquin (one other that I do not own, B???)
New Zealand: Trustpower
Austria: Verbund
Switzerland: MotoColumbus and many others
======Any suggestions for others ? Brookfield Assets in Canada has a good hydro portfolio (including half of Great Lakes) BUT lots of offices & mining (I think they sold timber interests) as well.
If this "plan" is the actual blueprint for Canadian energy development, oil sands investors are going to make money, but it will be frankly catastrophic for Canada and the world. The government of Alberta seems to be suffering from a severe case of recto-cranial inversion.
Lebanese casualties of the bus bombing. WARNING: very graphic photos!
I have a feeling that the news is going to increasingly impact all of us.
RR
(1) Assume your income drops by 50%;
(2) Assume that food and energy prices go up, from here, by at least 100%;
(3) Try to become, or work for, a producer of essential goods and services.
Corn grows in Alaska just fine, BTW. Plenty of water up there.
Go north, young people.
Find water.
Learn to garden, fish and hunt. Also learn how to do home canning without getting botulism.
LNG Terminal for the Tar Sands?
If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be Beryl.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 190233
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
...BERYL DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH....
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...34.1 N...73.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Remember upper case is not yelling to normal people offline, it is just a better clearer way of tpying something.
Thanks. I have been reading those reports or 10 years, AVILA is old hand at the forecasts, There is a group, one picks up the lead and signs his name to the forecast, every discussion and posting, they rotate on a schedule.
No I don't know the schedule but I know a lot of the names.
Avila, did the last storm of the season last year, I kinda laughed at how frustrated it all sounded by Jan when there were not supposed to be any storms that late in the year.
EPA: US MY2006 Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Same as 2005
And they use a harmonic average, which is the proper way to average mileage:
i.e. 1 car @ 40 mpg
2 cars @ 25 mpg
Averaging arithmetically would give 30 mpg. But you want to arithmetically average the amount of fuel used (i.e. liters per gallon) rather than the mileage.
So instead you average as 1/avg = (1/40 + 2*1/25)/(1+2), so avg = 28.6 mpg.
Alternatively, in 200 miles, the 40 mpg car uses 5 gallons and each 25 mpg car uses 8, so combined you have 21 gallons for 600 miles = 28.6 mpg.
Certainly this reinforces the importance of improving the mileage of the worst vehicles.
Tropical depression two may be forming of the coast of the Carolinas this morning NHC Advisory.
Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:48pm ET
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Blistering temperatures from New York to Sacramento on Monday will boost power demand to record highs and strain electric resources across the United States as people try to escape the sweltering heat, according to utilities and power grid operators.
Several grid operators, including the nation's largest, the mid-Atlantic PJM, have called for consumers to conserve electricity or for utilities to hold off from any maintenance as the situation was expected to linger for several days.
Generators were expected to have sufficient supplies to avoid blackouts, the North American Electric Reliability Council said in its forecast for the summer issued in May.
But extreme weather conditions "present a significant reliability risk" to parts of the country, like Connecticut and Southern California, which have not added new generation in the past few years,
Highs of 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) were forecast due to a dome of high pressure in the upper atmosphere has spread from the western U.S. to the central plains and northeast, said meteorologist Dennis Feltgen of the National Weather Service.
"It's preventing any cooling air from moving in or out, and as a result, we are cooking," Feltgen said.
The Northeast may see some relief by mid-week, but the heat wave will continue across much of the central and southern plains, Feltgen said.
"Much of the country is going to see 90-plus temperatures and triple-digits," he said
Grid operators in the New York, the mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Texas and California expect to break last year's all-time power-use records on Monday afternoon as residents and businesses crank up air conditioners.
The heat also strains transmission lines and generating facilities so grid operators are watching operations closely.
PJM Interconnection, asked customers in Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey to conserve energy for the next few days as demand could reach an all-time high of 138,000 megawatts, breaking the current record of 133,763 MW set on July 26, 2005.
PJM, which runs the grid for more than 51 million people, issued the conservation request as a "prudent precaution."
"Conserving electricity will help ensure adequate power supplies," the grid operator said in a release.
The New York Independent System Operator, whose lines serve 19 million people, forecast peak demand would hit 33,000 MW, breaking its all-time high of 32,075 MW on July 26.
On Sunday, NYISO told customers it might activate the emergency demand response programs on Monday to limit power consumption during the hottest part of the day.
The Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, which operates in 15 states, forecast demand of 115,400 MW, above the 2005 peak of 112,197 MW, while in California, the state grid operator forecast demand to rise to a record of 47,050 MW, up from 45,431 MW.
Texas was expected to set a fourth record for the month with demand to exceed 63,000 MW, topping the 2005 all-time peak of 60,274 MW
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyID=2006-07-17T184824Z_01_N ...
Sorry about that.
Space Rat
In my office building, a "power curtailment emergency" has been declared. They haven't sent us home, as they do sometimes, but they have turned off most of the lights and turned up the thermostat.
Getting pretty warm and dark in here. :-P
Why?
Weaker real estate market, higher credit card payments...and gas prices.
- Robert Bellah (1975)
Our numbness, our silence, our lack of outrage, could mean we end up the only species to have minutely monitored our own extinction. What a measly epitaph that would make: "they saw it coming but hadn't the wit to stop it happening."
- Sara Parkin (1991)
Plus most people lack the intelectual capacity to think abstractly.
Or maybe it's our evolutionary psychology which makes us unable to meaningfully pay attention to abstractions. Witness the blood lust and happiness of the people as bombs drop on the desert peasants.
Blood lust, not everything is that cute in human nature...
Cruelty’s Rewards: The Gratifications of Perpetrators and Spectators
That kind of stuff is not to be forgotten when looking for collapse mitigation.
Great link--recommended reading for all. Maybe people will finally realize that: "Our genes are not our friends". We would be much better off using our grey matter to plan our decline.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
"Genes are not our friends"
Please have a read...
http://www.hedweb.com/hedab.htm
" ...Blind selective pressures have acted on living organisms over hundreds of millions of years. Darwinian evolution has powerfully favoured the growth of ever more diverse, excruciating, but also more adaptive varieties of psychophysical pain. Its sheer nastiness effectively spurs and punishes the living vehicles of genetic replicators. Sadness, anxiety and discontent are frequently good for our genes; they're just psychologically bad for us. In absolute terms, global suffering is probably still increasing as the population explosion continues. Human ingenuity has struggled, often vainly, to rationalise and somehow derive value from the most frightful anguish. But over the aeons, the very anguish which intermittently corrodes the well-being of the individual organism has differentially promoted the inclusive fitness of its DNA. Hence it has tended to get inexorably worse...."
Genetic engineering and nanotechnology allow Homo sapiens to discard the legacy-wetware of our evolutionary past. Our post-human successors will rewrite the vertebrate genome, redesign the global ecosystem, and abolish suffering throughout the living world.
And you are denying the global warming threat, mmmm...
Singularitarian, Eh?
With conrad that makes 2.
Welcome, just bring in the tech savvy side of the Singularity and don't bother trying to dispel what you feel is "doom and gloom", this won't sell here.
P.S. Are you really Daniela Alves or is this just a PR trick?
(I would not be surprised ;-)
Funny--It wasn't that many years ago that I fully believed humanity was headed for a full-blown Vingean technological singularity (the development of superhuman intelligence). I even wrote a science fiction story that dealt with singularity (see "Between Singularities," Analog, Feb 2003).
Then I began to research Peak Oil more deeply. I was familiar with the concept, having discussed it with colleagues in the mid-1990s when I worked for the Energy Analysis Program at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. What I learned about Peak Oil completely reversed my technologically-optimistic world-view. For me, the science behind Peak Oil was profoundly compelling, and completely dispelled any thoughts about humans reaching a technological demigod status.
-best
If memory serves me, in the opening paragraph the author states that most of us will think this is a Utopian fantasy.
Count me in.
In my humble opinion, the author describes the human condition with a no holds barred style.
That's all. In the end I was more depressed then hopeful, which probably runs counter to his end purposes. Draw your own conclusions.
P.S. Dani Alves is my wife and all pictures are for sale.
Also how long before people really start to panic? And what happens then? I get the sense that we're close to that point now.
IMO, we are seeing, and we will continue to see, progressive demand destruction as importers bid against each other for declining net exports.
Earlier this year, I suspect that $75 was too much for a lot of developing countries, which allowed our imports to go back up in the US.
Where it gets interesting is when the more developed countries--like China and the US--start bidding against each other, instead of the developed countries bidding against the less developed countries.
Do I believe my eyes? Is Westexas acknowledging that US imports have gone UP? :)
I think that we just finished one bidding cycle, and we are starting another one. Note that imports started falling again, and oil prices have started increasing again, prior to the problems in the ME. I predict a series of auctions for declining net oil export capaicty, with the low bidders forced to do without.
I agree, the poorer nations are screwed.
What we do not know is how high are we and others willing to bid up the price of oil and at what levels poorer nations fall out of the bidding cycle. If you knew that, you could predict what level of production versus demand would drive prices up to $100 (or down to $50).
On the financial front gold is looking up, maybe...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/07/14/cngold14.xml&menuId=242&sS heet=/money/2006/07/14/ixcity.html
I was shocked to find out that my 1100 kWh/month house puts a tonne of CO2 into the air every month, based on the production profile of my provincial electrical utility. Saving 12 tonnes of CO2 per year for about $300 USD seems like a good deal to me.
The more people sign up to these kinds of plans, the faster the renewable component of the grid will expand. For urbanites who are not in a good position to install their own wind/solar/hydro supplies, this is definitely an idea whose time has come. Also, near Ottawa I've recently seen a dozen flatbeds carrying big wind turbine blades. This is more than a bit encouraging.
Turns out, (why didn't I think this?) they were (empty) wind turbine nacelles. I saw a wind power segment on TV and the tv science girl was standing next to one in a factory.
It looked like a big effort though ... I saw at least a dozen of them on the road.
Cheers,
RR
-best
http://www.awea.org/projects/minnesota.html
Here are the results for running a semi-powerhog computer 7x24 (using my kill-a-watt monitor):
running 9 hours and 12 minutes consumes 0.76 kwh
average consumption 82.609 watts
KWH per year = 723.65
$67.84 per year at 0.09375 cents min charge
$123.32 per year at 0.17042 cents max charge
$5.65 per month at 0.09375 cents min charge
$10.28 per month at 0.17042 cents max charge
Interestingly that hog did draw 8w in the off condition, so I unplugged it:
based on an instant reading of 8.00 watts
KWH per year = 70.08
$6.57 per year at 0.09375 cents min charge
$11.94 per year at 0.17042 cents max charge
$0.55 per month at 0.09375 cents min charge
$1.00 per month at 0.17042 cents max charge
That was a dual 800MHz PIII in an Antec case, 512M, 2 HDs, etc. My more modern Dells (2.4GHz) are a little more efficient, pulling 70w when in active use ... I haven't actually tested them for draw while "off" ... I might do that.
Right now the best answer is not to expect 24/7 operation. Pretty much any data you need 24/7 as an individual is data you can keep on a cell phone or flash drive.
I have heard more recent reports of problems with some brands ... definitely something to research before purchase.
As an aside, I tested with kill-a-watt one of the IBM ThinkCentre towers and found it running at 40w rather than the 70w of an equivalent Dell (all 2.4 GHz P4). I hope that the Lenovo brand (for those who don't know, they bought the IBM line) are still Energy Star .... er, stars.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5192424.stm
This is, I believe, the third year in succession this has happened for fear of increasing petrol costs to politically unacceptable levels. This "escalator" rise was originally devised to reduce CO2 emissions and combat global warming. Some politicians seem to have perfected irony, to the level of a science.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BFD411A74%2D9E6E%2D425E%2DA675%2D43DDFDC5361 4%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4053105.html
What's funny about that story is my college just quit taking VISA cards due to the surcharge policy. When you're charging $k's of $'s it adds up. My college spent like $21M on charge card fees last yr. They contracted a company to handle it from now on and there is a 2.5% additional fee to use a piece of plastic to pay for your tuition. Ouch and sad...
http://albuquerque.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/stories/2006/07/17/focus2.html
Doesn't tell you much except to point out that our banking sector is heavily leveraged in the housing sector and is at risk of tanking like the S&L scandal could only dream of. Well maybe that last part might be a stretch.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aq0yRZfhv8_I&refer=canada
So in 1 yr it went up 56%. Holy crap batman, something is in the water. The world is set to build nuclear wether we've got it figured out here or not. Meanwhile China is doubling output! Anyone up for a new neighbor? I promise the glowing is part of the show!
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/07/17/business/oil.php
Maybe the fundamental piece missing is peak oil.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060715/ap_on_re_us/highways_for_sale;_ylt=A0SOwj80HLlE.ncBrwmyBhIF;_ylu =X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ
I actually think this is a great idea. In the next decade I can honestly see myself quit driving. Maybe it's not purely by choice, but I won't be able to pay for it I'm sure. So getting other people to pay for improvements to the infrastructure while we use it seems like a win win. The tax payers aren't having to pay for improvements that don't seem to help and there will be private parties with real nice roads and no cars. This is government externalising at it's best!
Can anyone help me out with some data, or where I might find such data?
http://www.landinstitute.org/
I've heard that when the Plains were first "broken," plowing required huge tractors built specifically for the job and supposedly when they pulled a plow across unbroken ground, the breaking up of the dense root mat made a sound like gunshots.
Certainly, a lot of fertilizer has been dumped on these landscapes. But, soil testing is an art and some tests might show even "higher" levels of fertility now than they would have when this was virgin grassland. Relying on such measurements would give an incomplete picture because a plant nutrient exists in many forms, some readily available, some only slowly-available, and some for all practical (read "agricultural" ) purposes, unavailable.
The one defining feature of grassland soils is their high organic matter/organic carbon contents and, no doubt, any of these soils that have been under intensive ag for any length of time will now show reduced organic matter levels. You plow up soil, you expose the soil organic matter to oxidation (Same story, by the way, for those organic rich soils that they grow sugar cane on down South). You plow it long enough, it goes away.
The fact that we don't have huge dust storms blowing off the Plains now tells you that current soil losses there are greatly reduced. And as far as N fertilers go, if they aren't tied up in plant organic matter or adsorbed by clay minerals, they are pretty much gone from the system (i.e. flushed into the groundwater table or into local streams).
To make a blanket statement, what you have is still highly-productive soil, probably somewhat reduced in organic carbon, certainly supporting far fewer species (soil invertebrates, burrowing mammals, etc.), suffering somewhat from accumulated pesticide residues and in some places, salts, but it isn't beyond repair given enough time.
If you are interested in grassland ecosystems, definitely, check out the Land Institute as suggested by Jason Bradford.
I overheard part of an exchange at a gas station about 15 minutes before writing (admittedly the context was not very clear but I'm assuming it was a discussion about gas prices, problems in the Middle East etc. etc.). All I had to hear was one sentence from a customer to the attendant at the cash register - went something like this:
"We have way more oil in this country than they have in the Middle East..."
Then there was a bunch of noise and I missed anything else that was said...
Naturally my ears perked up when I heard the word oil. After hearing what he had to say about it I felt so discouraged - we have serious problems coming and we are not even past this point with people yet ? Can they really still believe that there is plenty of oil left even in the US ?
I hear stuff like this and think that there really has been little progress made - that Westexas' Iron Triangle is clearly winning the (mis)information war...
Builder Confidence Slips Again In July
Bought your used scooter yet?
--------------------------------
Scooter sales surged 17.5 percent in 2005, climbing 65 percent in the third quarter in top brands such as Suzuki, Honda and Vespa, the MIC said. "The trend is definitely still on the rise, and we're feeling pretty good for this year," van Hooydonk said.
The $23.3 billion market for motorcycles and mopeds saw increased sales in the first quarter of this year, with on-highway motorcycle sales up 8.6 percent, and scooters up 2.1 percent.
But some travelers are shunning fuel altogether, turning instead to pedal power.
----------------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Also, I'll need a simple un-insulated water tank - I've seen tham at Lehmans website, but I wondered if anyone knew another source.
I'm also thinking that people tend to keep water heaters until the tank rots out, but you never know what you'll find out there.
Actually, alot of electric hot water heaters get tossed because the elements burn out in them. Even thought the elements are easily and cheaply replaceable, alot of plumbers just sell the whole shebang I guess. I've found two good leakfree electric ones sitting in the metal pile at the local dump. I used them to build my biodiesel reactor setup.
P.S. If anyone is interested in how home biodiesel is made, check out www.biodieselcommunity.org, its one of the best sites out there.
By the way - as a mechanic with an ME degree, making biodiesel - it sounds to me you're well on your way, and probably better prepared than most. It's not too different from my situation, in that I've got a lot of skills that will probably be quite useful in the future, but I haven't been able to figure out a way I can use them to make the kind of money I'm making now in my conventional job. However, once that job is gone, then my standard of comparison will shift.
I have finally figured out what I want to do, but it will take me a couple of years to set up, and I'm going to need to acquire some new skills and equipment, and I don't have an appropriate facility (nothing extravagant needed, I just don't have it). Problem is the damn job leaves me too little time!
The premise of the contest is simple: The program is going to determine which products will make a more efficient home - from new appliances, to insulation to lighting. Those homes that are deemed to be in most need of help will receive ENERGY STAR appliances and other energy-saving products to start saving money. For more information on the contest, please visit www.whirlpool.com/energy
http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews.shtml?/20060719100100.shtml
Crude oil exports from Russia in January-May 2006 were down 1% year-on-year, in May down 4,2% year-on-year.
http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/B04_03/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d010/i010790r.htm
Crude oil production (including condensate) in Russia in January-June 2006 was up 2,3% year-on-year, in June up 2,4% year-on-year.
Environmental, economic, and energetic costs and benefits of biodiesel and ethanol biofuels. Hill, Nelson, et al. July 12, 2006.
That being said, the conclusion seems accurate. Bio-fuels using current technology almost always need some sort of government support to be viable. In many cases social and environmnetal benefits provide a justification for this support. In the U.S. context, biodiesel makes more sense than ethanol.
However, ethanol from sugar cane is far more energy positive and has worked in Brazil without subsidies. There it provides roughly 12% of vehicle fuel (on a BTU basis) and over 40% of all gasoline. It is being developed in other tropical countries and is likely to provide a growing portion of their fuel use and serve as an export product.
I think this only makes sense for tropical sugar cane and probably only to a level near 10% of global fuel use, which it could do in ten years or so.
These links provide very good detailed overviews of ethanol and biofuels:
1) World Bank: Biofuels for Transportation (200 page PDF)
http://wbln0018.worldbank.org/esmap/site.nsf/files/312-05+Biofuels+for_Web.pdf/$FILE/312-05+Biofuels +for_Web.pdf
Summary version (4 pages)
http://wbln0018.worldbank.org/esmap/site.nsf/files/KES4_forWeb.pdf/$FILE/KES4_forWeb.pdf
2) World Watch Institute and the German gov't (GTZ) (200 page PDF):
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/4078