Open Thread 2

when we go over 300 comments, it's probably time for a new one. one question I'll pose: what other quotes should we put up in the quote box that we don't have?
'We are all doomed' - dukey 2006

at least one company takes a jab at oil companies, take a look

Hello TODers,

I like Westexas's quote:  "We have to kill consumption before consumption kills us".

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

* cough *
Strangely enough, one of my friends tested positive for TB and though they weren't entirely sure if she had it or not, they put her on the most viscious antibiotics known to man for a year.
I don't think you meant slimy antibiotics, though viscosity is certainly part of the peak oil framewok.
Hellfire.  "Vicious"  Though I think you might be looking for "viscous."  Both of which are slightly different from "viscious" which means...absolutely nothing.
Higher interest rates?
News Flash

Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, on CNBC this morning, said that world oil demand will exceed supply for at least one to two years.  

Interestingly enough, by some odd coincidence he was pushing for a new Hydrocarbon Law in Iraq, so that US oil companies could start increasing Iraqi production.

Bodman is on MSNBC right now saying the same thing but a little more stark.  He says that this is the first time in his lifetime that suppliers are unable to increase supply to keep up with demand (didn't give a timeframe).   He gave the example of how it used to be with the Texas Railroad commission up until the 70's being able to 'turn the spigot' to stabilize supply/demand.  Sounds like a hint to me...

Of course, the ignorant interviewer rather than asking if Bodman forsee's an ability for the world to increase production from current levels, she kept pressing him about what the 'price at the pump' would be - which he refused to forcast.
Texas and US Lower 48 oil production as a model for Saudi Arabia and the world
Jeffrey J. Brown & "Khebab", GraphOilogy

Based on the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method and based on our historical models, we believe that Saudi Arabia and the world are now on the verge of irreversible declines in conventional oil production.  Published May 24, 2006

"No-one believes the results of a simulation, except the guy who wrote the simulation; everyone believes emperical data, except the guy who took the data."

I cannot remember where I first heard that. ...

I think this is an update of something Aristotle said in regard to the limitations of both the deductive and empirical methods.

He was one very smart dude.

Bodman is pretty much Bush's pocket gopher.  Is this now the official line of the Administration?

Bush needs to have his straight talk with the American public.  The public hears CERA, SA, oil companies, etc. say there's no supply problem.  Bush knows otherwise, and the only way he can come close to saving face is to own up to the fact, and lay it out there for Americans to hear.

Recognition of the Hirsch Report would be a great place to start.

One to two years, does that mean the situation has improved? A  couple of months ago he said it would be two to three years.
Speaking on NBC's "Meet the Press," Bodman blamed the increase in gas prices on the rising cost of a barrel of oil.

"The suppliers have lost control of the market and therefore, demand exceeds supply," Bodman said.

"Clearly we're going to have a number of years -- two or three years -- before suppliers are going to be in a position to meet the demands of those who are consuming this product."
OPEC says we're swimming in oil due to non-opec production. Accordingly, they plan to cut their production.
Isn't that convenient? So if they really had declines they can mask it as voluntary reductions. I wonder what they will say in a few years when the rest of the world is declining and they cannot ramp up to meet the gap?
My personal favorite is from Winston Churchill.  Something to the effect that "soon the time for dilly-dallying will be over and we will enter the time of consequences", or something like that.  Al Gore used it in his movie.

One other thing ocurred to me today, and I find it a delicious irony.  Richard Heinberg mentioned a CIA memo talking about Russian peak oil output, and wondered out loud whether or not the US tried to get Russia in an arms race to essentially bankrupt it, knowing that its energy resources would be running out.  Good thing we had the Saudis on our side I guess.

But I was thinking, now that Russia has passed SA as the world's leading producer (or at least they are neck and neck), that the situation may have been turned around completely.  Russia has lots of oil and gas, and doesn't use all that much (relatively speaking).  That gives it a lot of leverage.  The US, on the other hand, is looking increasingly vulnerable.

That was the real trick to our "star wars" strategy. As the old CCCP hit their oil peak, they were wasting tons of resources on weapons instead of mitigating their empire's PO. A second part of the strategy was to get the Saudis to produce oil like no tomorrow to cut the price. That choked off the hard currency.

Had we taken that money wasted on "star wars" and spent it on windmills, electrified high speed rail, etc. the Soviets would have gotten the hint and we might well still have a CCCP to worry about. But that strategy is proving short-sighted becuse we are liable to follow suit and have a wrecked economy like Russia now.

My favorite Churchill quote:

"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."

I like the other one about Americans:

"Americans are the world's worst guests but the world's best hosts".

Nothing to do with PO I know, but I kind of like it.

Haha, thank you ericy!  I was actually scanning the thread for that quote and was going to post it!
zeroworker, that one's already up there... :) "The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences."
Is there an easier way to see them all than to just keep reloading the page?
"Hope is the weakest force in physics."
Maybe hope isn't a force, but a catalyst. Immeasurable, nonetheless, so insignifigant on a sliderule analysis.
U thot right, Zero.  SA & Russia have been back & forth on the who's #1 record books for two years.  While it was believed SA would solidify their lead recently, new outlooks are showing Russia 11.6-mbd by 2011 ... the latest today by IEA in their 2006 medium term outlook.  BTW, they become the fourth modeler (Campbell/Laherrere/Skrebowski) to raise Supply estimates for this period in the last month:  91.7-mbd implied supply in 2011.

EIA's 87-mbd forecast for 2010 is now the most conservative of our 12 modelers for that year.  Who'd a thunk it, eh.

I would have - since predicting the future is so difficult, it is normal to overcorrect after predictions seem less than perfect. Especially public predictions. And the future is not static in the sense of a prediction today being valid in 5 years if the prediction assumes absolutely nothing will change.

Of course, in terms of current output growth, we do seem to be at a somewhat clear plateau for the last few months. And yes, this plateau has something to do with hurricanes, pipelines being blown up, politics, etc. - things which will never, ever occur in the future, I'm sure.

But then, I'm pretty sure with all those projects coming on-line in Texas by 1975, Texas oil production would be able to regain its old early 1970s peak. See how predicting the future is hard?

Freddy baby! When you say model, everybody stops listening, because they know it means guess.

Has anyone noticed the proliferation of scooters and motorcycles? Some people own a car and a motorcycle, to use the latter in good weather to use less gas. A small minority go motorcycle-only becuse poverty outweighs foul weather deterrence.

One obvious symptom of PO down the road will be the proliferation of bicycles. Not yet, becuse of the traffic of cars being the deterrent. Right now, you have to be almost fearless to ride a bike in the street, no matter the actual statistics. As they proliferate however, bike use will require less of a daredevil mindset - aiding its proliferation.

The problems of bicycles are thus:

  1. they are too fast for the sidewalk, making a hazard for pedestrians. Plus, many states outlaw the practice for that reason.

  2. they are vunerable in traffic, as above.

The result is that except for intentional bike trails, they are a poor match anywhere - until they become the majority vehicle on the street. (think of pre-car China) At that time, driving a car will be too big a pain in the arse.

So far, the traffic deterrent prevents bike use. But with gas in Chicago closing in on a buck a litre, time will tell when the switchover starts. Gas is $3.29/gallon now. When it hits $3.78/gallon, it'll reach the buck-a-litre milestone. Or is that kilometer-stone?

Hi All,

A couple of thoughts I've had over the past few years' about general animosity against cyclists from motorists.
I don't really want to get into a debate; I'm a lurker for good reasons :)
Anyway here goes nothing.

Since I first started studying Peak Oil in about 1999 after attending my first Critical Mass ride in Sydney (Aus); I've developed 4 opinions of the effect it will have on cycling in general.

I first thought that when oil peaked and petrol was very expensive it would be a cyclist's dream, with everyone riding as they couldn't afford to drive.

I soon realised that this utopian dream was just that and that when petrol was to expensive so would most other things like food, shelter, health, etc. So cycling was pretty low on the agenda.

Period of bliss
I then hit upon the reality that the crash would probably (possibly) take a few years to really effect me (white, middle class, professional etc.) So during this period when "others" were having a hard time affording to drive and before my luck runs out and I loose my job etc riding would be much more common and accepted behaviour.

Between times
My latest thoughts have been that there will be a period of time of dislocation for many motorists; this is where I think we are now. This is a time where the average Joe who lives in a location where he must drive to is getting squeezed financially in all sorts of ways and is pretty angry and scared. A simple and easy outlet for this resentment is to direct it towards people who can't fight back and seem to be getting something for nothing - cyclists. In short I think we're in a dangerous time for cycling, but in a short time "Joe" will have had to cede his V8 SUV to cycle to the closest transit station to get to work. Moreover more and more of Joe's mates will be doing the same thing, so it will be us and us (not us and them).

Those were just a few thoughts of a generally happy bloke; it's not the end of the world.... But if you go down the road and around the bend you can see it :)

Cheers, Justin
I'll be lurking again now......

and it may be difficult to locate rubber tires. just food for thought.
Motorists will get dislocated one at a time, not all of a sudden. I knew a coworker who quit and got a job closer to home. He was burning up a barrel a week at $3/gallon (80 cents/litre) and spending like $500/month on petrol alone. Even with a "mild" pay cut, if he is less than a gallon away from the new job he'll come out ahead!

Since he lived 4 gallons from the old job, the distance was too great to allow bicycle use plus mass transit would be very difficult if not full-scale impossible. Each dislocated motorist will face a unique set of nasty choices.

I wouldn't be surprised if road rage worsens as people make that final approach to when they park their car for good. They will know the jig is up and their credit cards are maxed out and they realise they can no longer afford to drive.

The thing to do is watch and listen at your workplace as the long-range commuters get squeezed first. For a given salary, they become the first casualties of PO and the commuting mission. Of course, that's becuse the gas prices bite them first and hardest. You might have already had a coworker who is a PO casualty already.


Let me call you by your first name. In Central California that is definitely of note. Also, even a Harley motorbike gets 50mpg.

We had a splurge of the two-cycle little bikes with a motor about a year back, but now we are seeing more and more electric bikes/scooters

Yesterday I was riding my e-bike (in 90-degree heat without sweating -- bless that electric assist!) and stopped at a red light next to a motorcyclist.  He said to me: "and I thought I was being gas-efficient today".  He normally drives a big truck, he said.

My anecdotal impression in recent months is that people who pass my bike driving a real guzzler tend to really "zoom" past me and ahead, far faster than the speed limit, as if to justify to themselves why they suffer with those gas bills.

Nevertheless, most drivers here in Vermont are not too dangerous to bicyclists, and the number of bicyclists has been rising, it seems.

Not many bikers in the winter though!  And those electric cars (and PHEVs) some people here are promoting would have a hard time providing heat, too.  Or even AC in the summer, which some consider essential...

My anecdotal impression in recent months is that people who pass my bike driving a real guzzler tend to really "zoom" past me and ahead, far faster than the speed limit, as if to justify to themselves why they suffer with those gas bills.

Happens all the time when I'm riding the bike.  A few weeks ago a Mustang gunned past me.  I was on my way to work and was trying not to sweat, but I passed him sitting in line at the next light.  He gunned it again, but I passed him at the next light.  This went on for half a mile and he just got angrier and angrier.  I finally eased into the left turn lane and passed him again before taking a left.  He used a lot of gas for little effect.

I lived in NH for a few years, and I wonder if EVs would start on some of those brutally cold mornings.  They say pedaling your Twike keeps you warm enough.

the city of Chattanooga is actively promoting bicycle commuting. We have had a very active Bicycle Club for many years snf the former mayor is also an avid cyclist. Those members that I know are pretty much fearless though riding curvy two-lane mountain roads with no shoulders during rush hour traffic.
Ok you guys are gonna laugh and as usual I'm going to look like a real meanie, but I was out driving around today, in the 90's temperatures, often high 90s, and I saw few cyclists - EXCEPT, for some reason this was a banner day for FAT cyclists.
If they keep it up, they will soon be thin cyclists. Fat people who are exercising deserse a lot of credit.  
Chicago has been taking streets that are lane-and-a-half wide each way and painting a narrowish bike lane. Chicago's mayor wants to promote bike use, but so far, no success. But time is on the side of bicycle enthusiasts and advocates.
Yes, time is on the side of the cyclist. Who remembers when riding a bicycle made you gay and wearing bike shorts made you a flaming fag who deserved to be assaulted right now? Who remembers having beer bottles thrown at you on every single damn ride? Who remembers when you could not commute by bicycle because it was a certainty, 100% done deal. that your co-workers would trash your bike and you would probably be fired? Who remembers just learning how to hear an approaching vehicle that intends to hit you? Who still knows how to get hit by a motor vehicle and keep the rubber side down?
MadMaxout, I'm from Chicago and I grew up riding as described. It's different now.
Already there is anti-SUV backlash. Maybe using one will get the reaction like you described with those bike rides through a gauntlet of idiots.
Crikey. How are you still here?
Crikey, smekhovo, I wonder myself. MadMaxout gets it very right when he calls it a "gauntlet of idiots". It was.
I grew up in the suburbs and used to ride into the city just because city people had more to do with themselves than throw their beer bottles at cyclists. That put me into what I still think is the greatest city in the world.
OTOH I've been shot at probably half a dozen times for the crime of riding a bicycle. Actually took some shotgun pellets. Beaten by the Evanston police twice for riding a bike. Better than my retarded friend who was raped by the Evanston police for same. One of those times I was left unconscious in a snowbank when it was perhaps 10 degrees F. and I was saved by a black housemaid who in fact lost her job for going out to help me. I owe her.
It is very much better now. It's been 3 years since a car hit me. I do still know how to bounce rather than get run over. Probably 10 years since a motorist reached out the window to grab me and try to throw me down. I did have some moron last winter who dumped a 40 oz. Big Gulp on me when it was about 20 degrees.
The big difference is that there are vastly more cyclists than there used to be. The idiots have their hate-cyclist circuit overloaded and can't function.
.44-40 Single Action Ruger Vaquero carried over my belly in a fanny pack. Never mind the driver. Mess with me, and then your heirs pay funeral bills, by gee!
I would've been in a lot of gunfights. And fights with the police. Moving targets are hard to hit, shots let off by angry fools aren't that dangerous. Maybe to bystanders.
In the years I was angry enough to contemplate such action, it helped that I could do 30 mph at will, and with anger 40 mph. On a racing bike still a little acceleration to play with at 40.
Maybe the speed earned a little respect, it definitely left them confused.

This is as good a spot as any to make a reply to something off a dead thread. Orwell did not fight for the "legitimate Nationalist" government, it was the Loyalist government. Meaning the elected Socialist-Popular Front government. I'm sure you recollect now that I've reminded you.
Legitimacy is a slippery notion. No matter the polls, legitimacy always evades the left. If we now put aside strict historical accuracy, IMHO by current definitions Franco was a patriot and a freedom fighter, the Loyalists were communists, and Orwell's POUM militia undoubtedly terrorists. Even back then the Loyakists were not comfortable with the support they had from the anarchists.
This started with you asking where are the journalists? The modern world doesn't want them. Orwell would be locked up or killed.
Your quick biblio tells me you've done some reading.
I wonder if you filled that shelf and left it before publication of CEJL? If you don't have it I'm sure you would enjoy the 4 volumes of Colleced Essays Journalism and Letters.
I don't think younger readers have much chance of understanding the political life reflected in Road to Wigan Pier or Homage. Easier to teach Beowulf.

Jesus, I thought riding a bike in England was slightly dangerous. I have had nothing like those road rages in my 18 adult years of riding a bike on the roads. Admittedly it is just around the periphery and outside of London, but 99.9% of mototists are considerate of cyclists over here. There are the odd motorists who hate being overtaken by cyclists, even when they are moving along with the traffic.

Anybody watching the Tour de France? Will Landis catch up with Oscar Pereiro to take the Yellow Jersey?

Sounds like he melted down yesterday.
One last post on this old thread. America is a land of violence and extremes. Witness  the Sailorman's take on this above. That one time I did get tagged by a couple of shotgun pellets was not Chicago, it was a rural area near Derry, New Hampshire and the shooter in the passenger seat of a police car. I doubt that would happen in England.
Landis strikes me more as a NASCAR type than a bike racer. What he did today was phenomenal, we'll be talking about this one the rest of our lives
I've read the four volume collection of Orwell's works twice.

The only reason I've never written a biography of Blair/Orwell is that he asked in his Will explicitly that this never be done. I have respected his wishes. Others have not.

Here is the real symptom chang is a brewing: in 3 days I've seen 3 hot women on the city bus. Granted they were each a touch on the "skanky" side but given that I haven't seen one remotely attractive woman on that bus in 2 years this represents a major improvement.

Wow, I haven't heard that word since I left California 19 years ago.

I've been riding the train to work ever since I moved to Germany. It's a very pleasant way to commute. My time is my own there, I can read or veg out and don't have to fight traffic or look for parking. I can enjoy the scenery, both inside and outside the train.

In spite of the availability of trains, busses, streetcars, there are plenty of people here who prefer the "freedom" of driving to work. If the price of doing that gets high enough, many of them will switch to riding the train. You can get a taste of what's to come on snowy winter days, when many people switch to the train. It fills up much faster, SRO well before it reaches the city. There goes the neighborhood....

Matt, is it lonely being an alpha male prophet of doom?  Though so.  Seriously man, seems like every other time you post you are talking about women.  Is there something lacking in your life?  You just gotta let go of the apocalyptic think and go with the flow of mainstream society.  You lack confidence in what the human race is capable of and assume we are all doomed to failure, frankly, women find that unnatractive.  
OOh, that's cold!

Matt, you don't want to ride the busses in Portland ME yet, unless you're doing it for pure transit motives, but I'm glad the Callie (Bay Area) busses are looking up.  I'm happily married, but seeing beautiful women, on mass-transit, no-less, is one of the joys of the world!  It just does the heart good!  (And on mass transit, you can actually start up a conversation, unlike the Hottie in the next lane at the Toll Plaza)

Yeah.  But resist starting it off with, "Do you know the world is coming to an end because we are using too much oil and it's screwing our climate as well as turning us into a bunch of useless couch potatoes?  I'd say Malthus was right.  What's your view?"
Get a right hand drive car. Women will talk to you at every stoplight. In the next car if it's four lane, off the curb if it's 2.
So far, the traffic deterrent prevents bike use. But with gas in Chicago closing in on a buck a litre, time will tell when the switchover starts.

I doubt you will be able to lock it down to a 'start of switchover' -  the process will not be that precise. There will be a gradual slide across in favour the bicycle as is currently happening in the UK.

In the UK the price of gasoline is hovering just below the psychologically important £1 per litre (= $1.83 per litre = $6.92 per US gallon) and in London we also have to pay a daily toll of £8 , soon to be raised to £10 ($18.30) to drive from the suburb to the centre of London and home again during working weekdays.

I imagine an $18 per day toll to drive to and from work in any American city would be as good an incentive to buy a bicycle as it has been in London.

An $18/day toll in American cities exists - in the form of PARKING fees at the parking garages. The parking fees are like $300/month. If you work 20 days/month that is the $15/day toll.

It deters most everyone but the day traders, lawyers, any doctors and corporate kingpins. Yet, the streets are absolutely CLOGGED in Chicago's centre city. Of course, streets are clogged with cabbies, delivery trucks, messengers, buses, including accordion buses, and who knows what, spiced up with the bike messengers to get people to slam on brakes.

Now, if you add an $18/day congestion toll on top of the existing parking fees there is no guarentee. Not with only the good-6-figure income types remaining undeterred.

Here is a marker of gas prices for a Brit to consider: If a kilo is 2.2 pounds, then a "kilo"/litre gas price will do. (2.2 English Pounds/litre)

BTW, I thought of something today, while joking about the upcoming buck-a-litre gas. When gas prices get so high that gas pumps can't handle it, what will gas station owners do? Let's say that max setting is $10/gallon. Will they reduce the setting then flip the "gallons/liters" switch to litres?

$10/gal = $2.64/litre so the same gas pump can be used longer just by flipping the one switch, thus avoiding having to get new (and by then very expensive) pumps. Or will they merely take the money you give to pre-pay then set it to cut  you off at half the amount?

We already had that max pump price conumdrum several/many years ago. That is why UK TODers always say £s per litre as the pumps could not cope with the tax and crude oil price increases. It was much cheaper to change the sign that to change the pump.
In my opinion you can't generalize, or think nationally, about bicycle saftey.  It's all about street (or where you have them bikepath) design.  On yesterday's ride (partly on Pacific Coast Highway, partly on "river trails", partly on roads) I found big wide roads where I least expected them.

For what it's worth my strategy is to ride bike trails where they exist, failing that roads with a bike lane, failing that wide or low traffic roads with no bike lane, ... when you get down to narrow and busy roads, then do get up on the sidewalk and slow down to near walking speed.  Cars entering and exiting driveways won't see you if you are moving faster.

I have at an earlier time advocated a few famous quotations from Garrett Hardin on the Tragedy of the Commons.

Would you like me to repeat them on this thread?

There are at least twenty good (and very short) ones, and it is hard to pick just one.

How about:

"Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all."

"Freedom isn't free."
"Freedom isn't free. It costs a buck-o-five."

(Team America)

Freedom ain't worth nothing, but it's free.

-Janis Joplin

In the mean time, freedom is nearing a buck a litre.

Another one from Garrett Hardin:

"It takes five years for a willing person's mind to change. Have patience with yourself and others when treading in an area protected by a taboo."

Here again from biologist Garrett Hardin:

"Knowledge alone will not move nations: astonishing and unforeseen events will be required for humanity's education."

"The Hubbert curve of oil depletion is probably the best depletion scenario nature could have given us"

Why? Given oil is finite and once it is consumed it is gone oil was inevitably going to run out oneday. Given the rate at which we are consuming it was inevitably going to run out at some point in our lifetimes. Given our inertia to change we were unlikely to do anything about it until it stares us in the face. We could have run out all at once while at maximum consumtion. I figure that a 2-3% per annum gradual depletion with a strong likelyhood that we will still be getting some oil in fifty years from today is a great way for it to happen. It means we have a year to find alternates and effeciencies of only 2-3% each year. It could be a lot worse than that.

I have thought of the exact same thing. It's potentially a good thing that the oil is NOT simply in a giant gas tank and with it getting sucked out and one day civilisation goes mmmmmmm-putt-putt-putt like a car out of gas.

The trick is how we manage the slow but maddening decline once we hit the peak if we havn't already. BTW, natural gas does come close to the "gas tank" scenario. That's becuse it's a gas and a gas obviously can seep around the nooks and crannies easally as compressed air instead of slowly seeping to the drill bit like a formation of crude does.

While an oil formation is (oversimplistically) like a sandbox saturated with motor oil and a water well, a natural gas well and formation is almost like if the drill bit drills into a giant cylinder of the gas. NG wells run out suddenly instead of little by little. Thus peak NG is a much bigger danger in the immediate future. But both are the biggest danger civilisation faces.

I have a feeling Uranium and Coal might be more like gas. Suddenly we get to the end of it. So it seems we really are LUCKY with the way nature has given us our oil. It seems the way it depletes is exceptionally gentle.
"Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security."
Are you sure?
I'm fear he might be wrong!
Found on the bathroom wall in the Restaurant and the End of the Universe:

"I get good advice, if you will, from their people based upon how we're doing business and how we're operating. Over and above the just sort of normal - by-the-book - auditing arrangement." - Vice President Cheney, then chief executive of Halliburton, praising the Andersen audit company in a promotional video (1996)


I try not to daemonize people who think differently than I, because those are the only people I can learn from.  -  john gorka, musician


What we have here is a failure to communicate.  Some men just don't get it.  - Cool Hand Luke


"Everything you know is wrong" - Firesign Theater


If you were asked to name five leaders of impeccable integrity in the business community, you could not come up with them.  - Arthur Leavitt on Charlie Rose


"My colleagues, every statement I make today is backed up by sources,  solid sources. These are not assertions. What we are giving you are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence." - Colin Powell, UN on Iraq, March 2003


I prefer Colin Powells' statement. It seems to fit Peak Oil!
I enthusiastically second the cool hand luke quote to be submitted...

I actually just recently watched the film last week for the first time ever. Wonderful movie about the human condition.

How do you get so drunk that you lose the ability to reason that beheading parking meters with a pipe-cutter either makes sense or doesn't while at the same time retaining the physical ability to carry out aforementioned action?

I don't know. And real-life evidence suggests these tasks are indeed possible, and historically, many people, if not most, get away with them.

We'll have to see what happens to Boone Picken's son to get recent anecdotal drama. Newman didn't fair so well. At least as a character. He makes a great spaghetti sauce in real life.

The human condition. Hmmm. One of my favorite films. I always just thought it was the best prison film. And I've seen it about 12 times. I'm such a dumbass. Thanks for that.

Maybe it's a bit like getting so drunk/fried on meds that you can't function at the G8 and let the mid-east go the way of the Big Easy while sexually harrassing heads of state and setting yourself up to get insulted by Putin.

How do you get so drunk that you lose the ability to reason that beheading parking meters with a pipe-cutter either makes sense

A gent I ment once who's nickname was 'hacksaw'.   Was a 'presidental schollar' (had a free ride at the college) till he took a hacksaw to a parking meter one night when drunk.

"We're all Bozos on this bus."  Firesign Theatre
Up against the Wall of Science, there, LJR!
Crude will get you through times of no money,

better than money will get you through times of no crude

to paraphrase Freewheelin' Freddie.

"Even in the most pessimistic Limits to Growth [1972] scenario the material standard of living kept increasing all the way to 2015."

--Meadows et al, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update

My father drove a mule.
I drove a tractor.
My son drives an autotrack combine with ballast optimization, dual-beam ground speed radar sensor, 48 gpm hydraulic system, 18-speed transmission, gps field management system, and heated leather seats.
His son will drive a mule.
Oh, yeah, that great Arab proverb. I have my own variant:

My grandfather swung around in the trees.
My dad walked the earth.
I drive a car.
My son will walk the earth.
My grandson will swing in the trees.

We evolved from an arboreal ape lookalike, and global warming could make Earth a jungle planet again. Guess where our descendants will find the citrus?

One of the best modes of communicating Peak Oil would be through a movie (as with Al Gore's on Global Warming) but not in a lecture style. I would think that the main scenario would show a 'typical' suburban family first in the future after PO has happened and with flash-backs showing the 'present' and critical passages from the current (time) to the future (PO time).
   It could illustrate the steps of denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance as many of us have or are going through. It could illustrate, through this hypothetical family, the reactions of sceptical friends, family members and co-workers. It could display an example of an optomistic outcome with the theme of re-localization and down-sizing and the step-by-step lifestyle changes that these members of this family go through as they try to change their lifestyles. It could illustrate the very hard decisions that they would have to make, the resistance they experience from others and some flashbacks could show pessimistic scenarios for large urban areas like Los Angeles or other urban areas which fail to adjust properly or it could use techniques like news reports from across the world like population down-sizing and relocation. Just a thought.
Just rent Escape from Los Angeles, watch the first 15 minutes and the last 5. there's your movie about peak oil, right down to the over-the-top fascist Christian president with the bimbo daughter and the latin american terrorist leader and airplanes flying into skyscrapers in new york.
There was a recent BBC production that featured PO but I do not know how good it was or how it was received.
A discussion of it is on the UK ToD site, it was on about three months ago I think.  Basically it was a cop out.  Set in 2016 when the price of oil is $80 a barrel (ha ha), it featured a desperate search for oil in the Arctic, fuel crisis, etc. etc. - then everything OK six months later as "new sources" came on stream.  Seems TPTB were afraid to suggest what things might really be like if there is no adaptation before a crisis hits.
A TV show would be better, and in fact myself and a friend started working on a script for just such a thing. It was targetted as a drama set in a collapsing civilisation as resource limits are hit.

The trick is to have your first priority be telling a good story, and only secondly educating.

The BBC have a department dedicated to reviewing scripts as they look for writing talent, however, we're both a bit busy to continue this project right now :( Besides, getting a TV show made is super hard.

Mad Max is on Friday (21st) night 11:45 on BBC1. Should be good to watch it through the Peak Oil eyes I have now.
My favorite quote, that basically says the organism that will beat it's rivals in the game of survival is not necessarily the one that is the strongest or smartest, but the one best adapted to its environment at a specific moment in time.  

"In the struggle for survival, the fittest win out at the expense of their rivals because they succeed in adapting themselves best to their environment."

Charles Darwin

O.K., I have a couple:

History is not a schoolmistress . . . She is a prison matron who punishes for unlearned lessons.

. . . Russian Historian Vasily Klyutchevsky


Old ideas are hard to kill. Niels Bohr once said, "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it."

"We have become makers of our fate when we have ceased to pose as its prophets."

--Karl Raimund Popper

the one best adapted to its environment at a specific moment in time.

That's a key point, and that organism may not be terribly well adapted at other moments in time.  Were the creatures that survived the extinction events particularly fit or just lucky?

Happens all the time in society, as well.  600 years ago, in a time of lawlessness, weak leadership, and foreign domination, a teenage girl who saw visions and heard voices rallied a nation and threw out the invader.  If she lived today, Joan of Arc would be put on therapy and psychoactive drugs.  We need the fringe elements of society -- you never know who'll be the "fittest" if conditions should change dramatically.


Very true. I've achieved a small degree of notoriety from LATOC. Got my name in the Congressional record, pic in Fortune, and mug in a documentary. However, had I put the site up in 1998 or had published a book in 1988 about these issues I would just have been dismissed as some nut and been paid no attention. Same thing for this forum and others like it.

As Tainter points out, the "fringe" element(s) of society gain acceptance and even prominence once a society begins to collapse. (Joan of Arc = good example, Adolf Hitler = bad example)

In biology, there is something called "preadaptation".  These are adaptations that may appear useless or serve a different function when they first appear in a species, but later on in their evolution, they become advantageous in a different way.

Preadaptation describes a situation where an organism uses a preexisting anatomical structure inherited from an ancestor for a potentially unrelated purpose. One example of preadaptation is insect flight as insects were originally exclusively terrestrial, some with fanlike structures for cooling which were selected for until they were large and efficient enough to allow flight (Bickerton 2000, p.160). Another is the example of dinosaurs having used feathers for insulation and display before using them to fly.

I think you can find numerous examples of "preadaptations" in today's human society that are now finding new advantages in the changing environment.

A lot of it is being at the right place at the right time with arsenal to take advantage of the situation, so their is an element of luck, but also of preparation.

For the record, I wanted to post this link to what seems to be an excellent World Bank study on Potential for Biofuels for Transport in Developing Countries.$FILE/312-05+Biofuels +for_Web.pdf

I may post more on this later, but need time to digest it.

Another excellent study, which I posted before, from World Watch Institute and the German gov't (GTZ):

The extended summary is over 100 pages. It also includes some country case studies. Free with registration.

Following the discussion/disagreement on the previous thread, I did want to note for RR's benefit, that several studies noted in the World Bank report above point to mileage of 25-30% less for E85 than regular gasoline.

My position remains: Ethanol is an inferior fuel from a consumer perspective because of BTU deficiency. In Brazil  ethanol needs to be priced at 30-35% less than gasoline (adjusted for content) to make up for this. However, ethanol does have advantages, when produced from sugar cane now, and maybe other technologies in the future. It is renewable up to a limit (10% of global vehicle fuel use?), has the potential for huge beneficial climate impacts, and can be done now. This is documented extensively in both studies.

Should have added the four pape summary of the World bank study:$FILE/KES4_forWeb.pdf

From Kenneth Boulding

The Dismal Theorem: "If the only ultimate check on the growth of population is misery, then the population will grow until it is miserable enough to stop its growth."

The Utterly Dismal Theorem: "Any technical improvement can only relieve misery for a while, for so long as misery is the only check on population, the [technical] improvement will enable population to grow, and will soon enable more people to live in misery than before. The final result of [technical] improvements, therefore, is to increase the equilibrium population which is to increase the total sum of human misery."

The Moderately Cheerful Form of the Dismal Theorem: "If something else, other than misery and starvation, can be found which will keep a prosperous population in check, the population does not have to grow until it is miserable and starves, and it can be stably prosperous."

Realistically, what are those "something else"s that would enable stable prosperity?  Efficiency is just a technical improvement (Jevon's Paradox).

Jumping around wikipedia I found this nugget:

"[W]e can make all of humanity successful through science's world-engulfing industrial evolution provided that we are not so foolish as to continue to exhaust in a split second of astronomical history the orderly energy savings of billions of years' energy conservation aboard our Spaceship Earth. These energy savings have been put into our Spaceship's life-regeneration-guaranteeing bank account for use only in self-starter functions." --Buckminster Fuller

  1. Boulding's "green stamp" plan for limiting births
  2. Sailorman's answer to all questions: More oral sex.
Reminds me of the laws of Thermodynamics:

  1. You can't win;
  2. You can't break even;
  3. You can't get out of the game.
Watch Der Fuhrer Grope German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

What a disgrace!

TOD has already quoted Mr Micawber from Dicken's 'David Copperfield' when he contemplates the loss or addition of sixpence from twenty pounds annual income. Like many posters he vows to change his ways given a last minute reprieve
'I have no doubt I shall, please Heaven, begin to be more beforehand with the world, and to live in a perfectly new manner, if -if, in short, anything turns up'


Boone Pickens on Nightline. "I'm not sure." "I think it's heading up." Has a team of traders he chats with. I wonder where his ideas come from. "I'm a Peak Believer." Peaked at 85. $4/gallon, 6 months to a year from now." $700 million into tar sands. Doesn't seem to see drawbacks. But apparently he sees money. Says Canada will be as important as Saudi Arabia.

I saw that, Boone comes clear out of the closet!
"I'm a Peak Believer."

So he is calling the peak much lower than De Marjorie (spelling may not be right) the French Total head of exploration, and seems to be making the call in front of the Iranian minister who gave possibly 5 years....this makes the Texans, Pickens and Simmons the most pessimistic, along wiht Westexas...

Pickens belief in Canada Tar sand has to be either a "pump and dump" play, to get the price up and then his hedge fund bails, or, and this is an interesting possibility, he thinks he's seen technical developments that could massively reduce the natural gas consumption in getting it out.
If that were true, then Pickens could be sitting in the two spots that could keep us from catastrophic meltdown too fast to handle,
tar sand oil, and natural gas (compressed for transport)
he may be an old man, but he don't seem to be stupid!

Either way, localities, counties, utilities, critical services, and states should be being informed and lobbied to begin putting in full contigency plans NOW.

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

Boone was a "Peaker" before I briefed him on HL, but I showed him some HL plots at the Simmons/Kunstler event last year (he was one of the underwriters, at my request).  His assistant called me the next morning and asked me to come by and brief his staff on the HL method.  We spent a couple of hours going over HL case histories.
"It's like burning the Mona Lisa to heat the Louvre>"

I think Bucky Fuller said that, but can't find an attribution. ...

'Haul down the bridge, Sir Consul, with all the speed ye may;
I, with two more to help me, will hold the foe in play.
In yon strait path a thousand may well be stopped by three.
Now who will stand at either hand and keep the bridge with me?'

Thomas Babbington Macauley

I can't believe Shelly's poem isn't up there.


I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said:--Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shatter'd visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamp'd on these lifeless things,
The hand that mock'd them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains: round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Or TS Eliot:

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

from The Hollow Men

Or WB Yeats:

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

From The Second Coming

um, I can tell you why it's not up there. it's too f-ing long! otherwise, quite apt though. :)
Fossil fuels in the last century reached their extreme prices because of their inherent utility: they pack a great deal of potential energy into an extremely efficient package. If we can but sidestep the 100 million year production process, we can corner this market once again.

Tip-o'-the-Hat to the fellow who can identify where this quote came from. :-)

The computer game "Alpha Centauri", CEO Nwabudike Morgan. Pretty cool game, pity it's so dated. After seeing the mechanics of Civ 4, where you can win by cultural imperialism,  it doesn't hold the same appeal :-)

My fav. quote:

"Having been brought up in a serf-owner's family, I entered active life, like all young men of my time, with a great deal of confidence in the necessity of commanding, ordering, scolding, punishing and the like. But when, at an early stage, I had to manage serious enterprises and to deal with free men, and when each mistake would lead at once to heavy consequences, I began to appreciate the difference between acting on the principle of command and discipline and acting on the principle of common understanding. The former works admirably in a military parade, but it is worth nothing where real life is concerned, and the aim can be achieved only through the severe effort of many converging wills."

Piotr Kropotkin, russian anarchist.

I tip my hat sir. :-) Cool game. Would love to see an update.

As for Civ IV's cultural imperialism feature -- it's ok, but it makes miltary conquest a bit harder.

And the nukes! They castrated nukes! :-(

Tip-o'-the-Hat to the fellow who can identify where this quote came from. :-)

John D. Rockefeller?

CEO Nwabudike
Morgan Strategy Session
A winner!


'I Hate the White Man' Roy Harper 1969

Far across the ocean in the land of look and see
There once was a time for you and me
Where the winds blow sweetly and the easy seas flow still
And where the barefoot dream of life can laugh and cry its fill
Where slot machine confusion and the plastic universe
Are objects of amusement in the fiction of their curse
And where the crazy white man and his tear gas happiness
Lies dead and long since buried by his own fantastic mess
For I hate the white man in his plastic excuse
O I hate the white man, and the man who turned him loose

And the reins of coloured thunder of the stallion of the dawn
Ride the coal-fire morning on the beach where all is borne
Where the emperor of meaning is burning up his fort
And sits to warm his toes around a fire made up of useless thought
And when the children tempt him with the riddles of their trance
He flings the flames of solstice casting laughs into their dance
And where the crazy white man in the desert of his bones
Lies as bleached as the paradise he likes to think he owns
And I hate the white man in his evergreen excuse
O I hate the white man, and the man who turned him loose

And far across the reaches of the drifting yellow sands
The living carpet wilderness forever joins its hands
With heaven's hell's attainment in a surging crest of fire
Where more than all is thrown upon the everlasting pyre
And through the countless canticles of Jason's charcoal fleece
Are sung the songs of nothing in the timeless masterpiece
And there stood in the middle is the everlasting bust
Built by God's very own white man as he tries to rule the dust
And I hate the white man in his doctrinaire refuse
O I hate the white man, and the man who turned you all loose

And the bowels of his city have been locked into a safe
Where the spew stains on the sidewalks are defenders of the faith
While back inside his kitchen the bowler hatted long haired saint
Cleans with soap and water but it's really just white paint
While his gorgon-headed scandalsheet presents its daily bite
To give the righteous news believers drugs to keep them white
And outside in the whitewash where the guns are always always right
The shooting star has summoned death's dark angel from his night
And I hate the white man in his evergreen excuse
O I hate the white man and the man who turned him loose
... and the man who turned me loose

(as you might guess he don't like ol' JC much, nor Islam when it comes to that)

In case anyone cares, I found this article on Daqing in China. There is some specific data in here. It seems to be in a gradual decline from this.

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--The crude oil output of Daqing field, China's largest oil field in terms of production volume, fell 2% in the first half of the year compared with January-to-June 2005, but gas output rose 7%, according to a
report by China Oilnews Monday.
  Daqing's crude output dropped to 22.26 million metric tons, or equivalent to 901,469 barrels a day, said the paper.
  Crude output in the first half of 2005 reached 22.66 million tons, or 917,667 b/d, according to a People's Daily report in July last year.
  The field's gas output was at 1.32 billion cubic meters in the first half of this year, China Oilnews said, up 7% from 1.23 billion cubic meters in the
first half of 2005.
  Daqing Oilfield Corp., the operator of the field, is targeting to produce 43.09 million tons of crude oil, or 865,342 b/d, and 2.6 billion cubic meters
of gas this year.
  Daqing Oilfield Corp. is a unit of PetroChina Co. (PTR).
  In 2005, Daqing produced 44.95 million tons of crude, or 902,694 b/d, a 3% decline from 2004. But natural gas output rose 20% to 2.443 billion cubic
  PetroChina Co. (PTR), China's largest integrated oil firm by capacity, said Monday that its overall crude oil production in January-to-June rose 1.8% to
419.1 million barrels, or 2.32 million b/d, while its gas output rose a sharp 30.8% to 684.7 billion cubic feet, or 20.54 billion cubic meters.

If anyone cares, there's a good chance you might find them here. Thank you for that.

Daqing is, of course, number four on our most favorite things list.

I'm going to try something here. I'm building an opensource  database of the largest fields in the world. I was wondering if anybody had any current production numbers on these:

Kirkuk        (Iraq)
Rumaila North (Iraq)
Zakum         (UAE)

Or any other field information they want to volunteer. I'd like to work on fields above 200,000 bpd to start with, and will be publishing any results as soon as they come in. I figure that if we all pool our time, effort, and resources we could get a much better picture of the situation. We can also make clear what we know and what we do not know.

This effort is a direct rip-off of Kalpa's impromptu poll last week on attitudes (D-1-Y). He got me thinking. Thanks, Kalpa. How about another poll? Don't be a stranger.

As an initial template I combined a database Greyzone distrubuted a few months ago with a highly incomplete table in the back of 'Twilight.'

My goal is to catalogue the top 116 fields that appear at the top of Simmons' Pyramid. Once we get some decent data we can start to have fun with it.

I know that Chris Skrebowski has does some work in this respect. But I hit the site and it looks like it's pay-to-play. So I wouldn't know what his information is worth. I'd have to see it. I'm all about freedom of information. As in free. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe there's some kind of downloadable like the EIA has that I missed.

Anyway. We deserve some decent info here at TOD, so that's what I'd like to provide. I'll do the easy lifting. You guys each throw me a field. What would be great is if people would reserve slots. Pledge that you will research a certain field and we can stick a bookmark in it. Then others would not be duplicating efforts.

However, China as a whole still has gently climbing production: By Wing-Gar Cheng July 18 (Bloomberg) -- China's June crude oil production rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier to 15.3 million metric tons, according to government data. Oil output in the first six months rose 2.1 percent to 91.7 million tons, China Mainland Marketing Research Co., which compiles data for the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics, said in a faxed statement today.
So basically, in the first 6 months of this year we have

China prod=91.7m tonnes (+2.2% over last yr)

Daqing prod=22.6m tonnes (-2.0% over last yr)

Does that tell anyone anything about if China's peak is imminent?

No. And as far as I can tell, it never can. See the recent work of Halfin and Plucky Underdog on this very site. HL is a horrible predictor of anything in advance.It only proves things in retrospect. And what I just said is the key misunderstanding between both camps. I'll repeat. Hubbert's curve is brilliant, almost always works. But only from behind.

Let me attempt to give you the paradox. Hubbert people couldn't tell you what is gonna be the month, next week - but they are almost always right. Nah, let me try again.

Khebab is probably the best. He completely understands each and every criticism. Yet in his heart of hearts he believes. Why? Because he actually works the numbers relentlessly. Few of us have been there. You need to stare at these numbers for hours. Until you feel like you are going blind. To which Khebab responds, "Nah, no big deal..."

Do you see Michael Lynch or Yergin giving explanations for their "theories" and "numbers"? I think not.

Still riding both sides of fence.

Re:  HL is not a good predictor

Hubbert accurately picked the approximate time frame for the Lower 48 peak.

HL is a simplified version of Hubbert's earlier work.

Using HL, Khebab predicted post-1970 cumulative Lower 48 production, using only production data through 1970.  Actual production was 99% of what the HL method predicted.  Note that Khebab had no agenda.  He just did this as an experiment.

Deffeyes estimated that the world crossed the 50% of Qt mark in late 2005.  The EIA says that world crude + condensate production is down 1% since December. . .

False statement, Oil CEO. HL accurately predicts URR and decline before peak. The closer to peak you get (but still before) the more accurate HL becomes. Post peak, HL just reaffirms what it said before peak.

You appear to have totally ignored the actually mathematical work of both Stuart and Khebab in favor of the Halfin, who provided no data, no math, nothing but hot air.

Whereas Skrebowski and others model Depletion bases on flow rates and depletion, Hubble and Jean Leherrere base theirs on HL type mathematical formulas and avoid the noise.  In his pre-ASPO-5 submission, Jean has raised his target for a peak to 2018 (from 2014) with a production rate of 92.6-mbd (up from 87-7-mbd).  His annual updates since '96 have been superior to anything out there on a consistency basis.
That's interesting. But if we're only going to see 6 mbpd increase over the next 12 years (add 1 billion more people to the world in that timeframe), then we've got serious problems. Oil prices should skyrocket. Of course, demand for some form of energy should really put a driver into the alternatives market and sufficient demand might help weed out the subsidized wannabes from actually useful alternatives.
CEO, I manually derived approximate production figures for the Yibal field from this graph by Jean Laherrere. I used them to make this HL plot that I discussed the other day:

If you want the spreadsheet with the data, send me an email (address in my info).

I'll be interested to see your database because I want to try and find out how much of the daily production comes from fields that could collapse like Yibal.  Will you include what EOR techniques have been used at each field?

The HL modeling technique is based on a more or less Gaussian production curve. We make that assumption since many natural phenomena follow such a curve; you take a lot of individual blobs of 'stuff' and scatter them randomly around, then add them all up, you tend to get gaussians. Even if the individual blobs are shaped like Mickey Mouse.

There isn't any sort of hard-fast universal rule that says it will apply to every situation. I expect that, if you add Yibal in with everything else, you'l find that the global production curve fits a gaussian peak and will linearize nicely. It's just that you're looking at one mickey-mouse-shaped blob here.

"The HL modeling technique is based on a more or less Gaussian production curve. We make that assumption since many natural phenomena follow such a curve"

Yes, but what we are doing with modern EOR techniques is not natural.  We are skewing the production curves so they no longer fit a gaussian.  The only good gaussian fits I've seen here at TOD are for fields/regions that, for the greater part of their history, have not used advanced EOR.  Either that or they have used EOR for the majority of the field/region's life (e.g. Norway's Stratfjord).

"I expect that, if you add Yibal in with everything else, you'l find that the global production curve fits a gaussian peak and will linearize nicely."

But a fair percentage of the daily oil production comes from a handfull of super-giant fields that have had advanced EOR used to maintain their pressure.  If all of these (very old) super-giant fields are at the same point that Yibal was at in 1998, then we are going to see a significant drop-off of world production in the next 2 or 3 years.

Hopefully Oil CEO's database can help us quantify how many fields fit the Yibal profile.

Note that discovery methods have gotten better since 1948 as well. Now the majors can visualize underground structures with 3-D computer graphics. What took a supercomputer in 1960 is now a trivial task for the average desktop.

But for some reason it doesn't seem to have made the discovery process much less random. I do see your point, and suspect there may be some expectation of a steeper downslope, but also a tapering-off phase as oil shale, tar, etc. are brought in... they won't make another 'peak' but will lengthen the 'tail'.

All I can point to is the inherent randomness of nature. If we simultaneously knew where all of it was a half century ago, and no new discoveries were made in the interim, then yeah, it's gonna be a steep decline.

Yes, definitely. I'll be responding soon once I pull my shit together. Thanks for the support. Couple of days to a week, best I can say. I have a wicked problem with biting off more than I can chew.
Great initiative, I've been thinking about that TOD would be a good place from which to access and freely complement such a database. Have you thought about the division between field / group of fields (like Ghawar would actually be six or something fields). Properties to bring include OOIP and produced to date and flow. Also nr of wells and main or percentage MRC-drill type and quality API and permeability and so on and so on.
Therefore wouldnt it be wise to draw the line at a smaller number than 116, also considering that one would probably still get a good percentage of the worlds total oil production.
And how to administrate? Should entries be examined and by whom? How could it be accessed via TOD?
Mostly questions Im afraid...
Maybe a starting point could be the text "oil fields and what they do (or might) produce and when". Did you see that?
Oil CEO, have you seen this web-page table I did of Greyzone's stats? (sortable by column heading). If there's anyway I can help on the IT side, let me know.
Yes, I have. I originally got this whole idea from GreyZone.  I will need your help at some point when it becomes what I hope it will be. Give me a little bit of time to pull it together. I'll give you some things to mull over.

I'm going to base it off an excel spreadsheet. Each field will have its own row. But we will want to easily convert to MS Access to run advanced queries(maybe) - plus that's no big deal.

Most important will be references. Each line will hopefully be linkable to a folder containing a Word file with synopsis and links to documentation, primarily on archived web-sites - we must incorporate the debate and alternate viewpoints and their corresponding production numbers within database itself, this is the difficult part.

I want to bundle the whole thing in one Zip-file for distribution. What are the best ways to achieve this? What are your recommendations, suggestions, and other ideas?

"When the going gets weird, The weird turn pro." - Thompson

"History will prove me right and you wrong - because I'm going to write that history." - Churchill

"When the world ends, can I have all your Stuff?" - Jack

Off topic, but since it's part of an open thread, I'd like to share a few comments with you. As I've become acutely aware of our society's reliance on cheap energy and materials, I can't help but think the way we provide healthcare is going to be effected. I've been a paramedic and an ER nurse, and I currently work in critical care at a large academic teaching hospital. The amount of electrical energy that places such as that use is enourmous, and there is no way a modern medcial center can provide care without it. Also of concern is the sheer amount of plastic, disposable, single use supplies we use once and throw out. All of that plastic made out of petrochemicals tossed into a landfill someplace. Does anyone have any ideas just how things may shake out, healthwise that is? Provided, of course, we don't contract a previously unknown mutant strain of the black death in the interim.
Subkommanader Dred
Almost everything we consume is replacable. As far as electricity goes... coal, uranium, wind, water, gas, geothermal, wood, solar, fusion etc.

As far as plastics go, we can get a lot of our petrochemicals from coal. But also, we have GM plants that produce plastic according to this US government website:

I think healthcare will be one of THE VERY LAST PLACES that will be deprived of resources. We will sacrifice almost anything infront of healthcare.

Yes, we probably can collectively decide health care is a special, important case, and specially set aside sufficent energy resources we want to it during energy decline.

But, given the complexity of modern USA style health care (or more accurately, disease care), and, beyond the use of petrochemicals and electricity, its utter dependence on a unbelievably complex maze of high technology and computers, and insurance payments, I'd expect the collapse of this system to be part and parcel of any future economic collapse.

I also suspect if/when this happens, no amount of effort or collective decision-making will be able to get these hospitals up and running in their present form.

To my thinking, in a scenario of major collapse, ala Soviet Union, many or most hospitals will survive, but in somewhat different form as they re-cobble themselves. I am quite certain we will still have chemo, anesthesia and surgery, for a very long time, at some level, for some people. But I would guess that the availability and scope of these things will be scaled down dramatically, and many of the related high-tech accoutrements will have fallen away.

Effectively we would then, like it or not, have to settle for a simplified, less widely available (at least for surgeries and other high-tech intervention) and less effective system, even as many older and chronically ill folk will die many years earlier than they might have. This situation if we see it could in fact be an unplanned aid to the population problem. Also, the healthy young would be relatively unaffected - in fact on average with this scenario they might have a better quality of life than otherwise, as relatively more resources and energy would be available to them.

To clarify - I'm not saying a collapse of the current USA health care system (or similar first world health care systems), on balance, is desirable - people like my dad would have long passed without modern health care, and at 75 he still has a reasonable level of health. Collapse or non-collapse of the system ultimately has very little to do with individual choices anyway, even choices of important people who are near the top of the modern health care / insurance system pyramid - let alone opinionated peons like me who are not part of the system at all.

In any case, bigger tragedies IMO are crises that result in widespread deep suffering and dislocation for the young among us, who have not yet lived out near their full potential lives; I don't think a collapse of modern health care would by itself result in that.

Its not the extreme treatments that gives most of the happines times additional life lenght that health care produces.

But the extreme treatments moves the borders for what is easy and do of course give additional happines times life lenght.

In my country we could get rid of a lot of administration with a small and probably positive impact on the production. If times turn realy hard it will start to unravel somewhere and if the ledership is good it wont be in the handling of staff and patients so that what can be done is done well.

Media and debate gives me the impression that USA have a problem with inefficiences due to your sueing culture, fix that and you free a lot of professional time and money.

I agree that the biggest tragedy is (young) people who cant get their free lives to start to build their own happiness. Here I dont think it matters much wich level you start on but that you can work and year by year make life better for yourself and others you like.

I think healthcare will be one of THE VERY LAST PLACES that will be deprived of resources.

Same goes for fueling the weapons of war and making sure there is a 'continunity of government'

Subkommander Dred said:
There is no way a modern medical center can provide care without [enormous amounts of electricity]

See Serbia, Iraq, Lebanon for suggestions. Power stations are among the first things the F-16's go for these days (it's not 'terrorism' as long as you do it with an F-16).
What a great question.

I know a man who lost his leg on the winter march back from Stalingrad to Berlin.  There were no more drugs in the Med Units, and the doctors advised his wife to leave the maggots on the wound, since they would only eat dead tissue, and would be his best hedge against gangrene.  I knew him in the late 1980's, and you could hardly see the limp.  They were farming in upstate NY and had a cow with an infected udder, and applied the same wisdom, allowing nature to take it's course.  She was doing fine with three remaining udders.   Not saying that infection won't get you, but that there is some old knowledge that would be extremely useful for med professionals to get in some kind of 'Survivor' course.  That, and supplying clinics with some supplies that are washable/reusable, which have generally been replaced by disposables, should be part of their SOP.

I wonder what of the Diagnostic tools can be reviewed as far as energy consumption is concerned.  If the 'no expense spared' attitude is consistent, I'm sure there can be drastic improvements made in the power req's of many tools..

Dont let nature take her course alone with your cow. Milk her a little very often until the infection is over and the milk smells ok again. Unfortunately my knowledge do not cover how often is too often.

The best is to combine this old treatment with antibiotics. This is one of the kind of infections you would like to save antibiotics for. Its mad to use them to only get a slight increase in production while making them useless for disease treatment due to bacterias becomming resistant.

"When the cities are gone...and all the ruckus has died away, when sunflowers push up through the concrete and asphalt of forgotten interstate freeways, when the Kremlin and the Pentagon are turned into nursing homes for generals, presidents and other such shitheads, when the glass-aluminum skyscraper tombs of Phoenix, Arizona barely show above the sand dunes, why then, why then, why then by God maybe freemen and wildwomen on horses, free women and wild men can roam the sagebrush canyonlands in freedom--goddamit! Herding the feral cattle into box canyons, and gorge on bloody meat and bleeding fucking internal organs, and dance all night to the music of fiddles! Banjos! Steel guitars! by the light of the reborn moon!--by God--Yes!"

-- Edward Abbey

Shorter Abbey:

"Too much proximity to folly tends to make it seem normal..."

Since I haven't seen it here yet...

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." Dr. Albert Bartlett

In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.
    Douglas Adams

Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.

    Douglas Adams, "Last Chance to See"

The major difference between a thing that might go wrong and a thing that cannot possibly go wrong is that when a thing that cannot possibly go wrong goes wrong it usually turns out to be impossible to get at or repair.

    Douglas Adams, Mostly Harmless


Quote for the quote-box:

"Predictions are very hard to make, especially when they involve the future"

(Liberally taken from Yogi bear)

Yogi Berra. Yogi bear was famous for stealing picnic baskets.

"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something.  Nowadays, everybody's crazy" -Charles Manson
I'm going to suggest to the Editors that you institute this second open thread and either shed the 300-comment barrier or reduce it to 200.

This second open thread at 63-comments+ shows that there is pent-up demand(is pent a word and did I spell it right?)

You guys went from 7,000 hits to 10,000 very quickly. I'm not sure why, and don't really care. I suspect it has something to do with price, but also notoriety. Regardless, the traffic is there. You need to deal with it.

When you guys first floated the idea of a daily open thread at a given time, I was sure that it would be a magnet for nutbags. I was wrong on that point. However I also raised the issue that the one thread at 9am favored people in certain times zones.

I notice a certain lull in the action between 4 and 9pm EST. I suggest a second daily open-thread somewhere in that time slot. I believe this would also relieve pressure on the 1st thread at exactly the right time if it were initiated around  5pm.

Just a suggestion. I'm happy either way. Or any other way for that matter.

"Some day this war is gonna end." - Kilgore

"Our little Spaceship Earth is only eight thousand miles in diameter, which is almost a negligible dimension in the great vastness of space. Our nearest star,our energy-supplying mother-ship, the Sun,is ninety-two million miles away, and the nearest star is one hundred thousand times further away.  "

Bucky Fuller; Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth(Chapt 4); entire book on line ...
 (The rest of that quote)
It takes approximately four and one third years for light to get to us from the next nearest energy supply ship star. That is the kind of space-distanced pattern we are flying. Our little Spaceship Earth is right now travelling at sixty thousand miles an hour around the around the sun and is also spinning axially, which, at the latitude of Washington, D. C., adds approximately one thousand miles per hour to our motion. Each minute we both spin at one hundred miles and zip in orbit at one thousand miles. That is a whole lot of spin and zip. When we launch our rocketed space capsules at fifteen thousand miles an hour, that additional acceleration speed we give the rocket to attain its own orbit around our speeding Spaceship Earth is only one-fourth greater than the speed of our big planetary spaceship.

Spaceship Earth was so extraordinarily well invented and designed that to our knowledge humans have been on board it for two million years not even knowing that they were on board a ship. And our spaceship is so superbly designed as to be able to keep life regenerating on board despite the phenomenon, entropy, by which all local physical systems lose energy. So we have to obtain our biological life-regenerating energy from another spaceship the sun.

Our sun is flying in company with us, within the vast reaches of the Galactic system, at just the right distance to give us enough radiation to keep us alive, yet not close enough to burn us up. And the whole scheme of Spaceship Earth and its live passengers is so superbly designed that the Van Allen belts, which we didn't even know we had until yesterday, filter the sun and other star radiation which as it impinges upon our spherical ramparts is so concentrated that if we went nakedly outside the Van Allen belts it would kill us. Our Spaceship Earth's designed infusion of that radiant energy of the stars is processed in such a way that you and I can carry on safely. You and I can go out and take a sunbath, but are unable to take in enough energy through our skins to keep alive. So part of the invention of the Spaceship Earth and its biological life-sustaining is that the vegetation on the land and the algae in the sea, employing photosynthesis, are designed to impound the life-regenerating energy for us to adequate amount."

KVMR and Other Northern California Radio Stations Speak To Each Other This Wednesday

I imagine at least one will be streaming this.

Published: Jul 14, 2006 at 09:41

A unique, first-of-its-kind regional "Town Hall Meeting" will bring listeners of five northern California community radio stations -- including Nevada City's KVMR (89.5 FM) -- into a common dialogue on what the stations are calling the burgeoning "localization" movement when they simulcast together this Wednesday night (July 19) from 7 to 9 p.m.

"There have been many network radio broadcasts," says KVMR Program Director Steve Baker, "but there have been very few where five stations actually talk and listen to each other."

The Seven Rivers Radio Network received a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting to bring together north coast stations in Mendocino County, Garberville, Arcata's Humboldt State University public radio affilatiate and an Indian reservation-based station in Hoopa for special election and public affairs programming. The network invited KVMR to participate to widen the geographic scope and dialogue for the project.

"We felt our broadcast area added at least five more major rivers," quips Baker, "but we're delighted to add to the dialogue however we can."

The topic at hand of Wednesday's broadcast will be the efforts of a number of northern California communities to become more self-reliant as global oil supplies decline relative to demand. This "peak oil" hypothesis has led to formation of "localization" groups in such places as Laytonville, Willits, Garberville and western Nevada County. Issues explored by these groups include expanding local food production, developing sustainable building material and improving energy sources not derived from petroleum. Guests at each participating radio station will describe activities going on in their communities.

"If we can pull off the challenge of technological wizardry that it is," says Baker, "it's what community radio was meant to be."

KVMR's contributors include activist Renette Senum from APPLE (Alliance for a Post Petroleum Local Economy) and organic farmer Daniel Macon, executive director of the Nevada County Land Trust. KVMR News Director Mike Thornton is coordinating the station's local participation.

An array of guests will be gauging the impact of the issues on their local economies, from professors and community organizers to a smalltown general store manager.

The Wednesday broadcast also features a dialogue among guests at the five stations and a call-in for listeners via KHSU in Arcata, 800/640-5911. Other participating stations include KZYX, Philo; KMUD, Garberville; and KIDE, Hoopa.

Seems china is admitting to Daqing oil production falling a little, but saying gas production from it has risen 7%.

Daqing oil production down 2%

A comment i still remember. Ken Olsen the founder of Digital Equipment Corp.( remember them?)  " If you truly wish to have control over a meeting, write the minutes"
Whatever happened to Olsen? (yeah, I remember)
   Last time i saw Ken was in 1986 but friends have told me he was very distraught when the company got acquired by Compaq. He was a very unique and brilliant guy.
"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change."
                                                            Charles Darwin

You know, what makes our economy grow is energy. And, Americans are used to going to the gas tank and when they put that hose in their tank and when I do it, I wanna get gas out of it. And when I turn the light switch on, I want the lights to go on. And, I don't want somebody to tell me I've gotta change my way of living to satisfy them. Because this is America, and this is something we've worked our way into, and the American people are entitled to it. And, if we're going to improve our standard of living, you have to consume more energy.
                                                                                Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa

"Man prefers to believe what he prefers to be true."
                                  Francis Bacon

"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind, and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everybody gets busy on the proof."
                              John Kenneth Galbraith

The most common way people give up their power is by thinking they don't have any. -- Alice Walker

"The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised."
                                   George Will

"Corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed.
                                  Abraham Lincoln

The future ain't what it used to be.         -Yogi Berra

The following quote comes to mind when I think of the cornucopians of this world:

A great deal of intelligence can be invested in
 ignorance when the need for illusion is deep.

Saul Bellow

And out of this arose the three great TV networks.
"Science and technology revolutionize our lives, but memory, tradition, and myth frame our response."

Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. (American historian)

"A reasonable man adapts himself to his environment. An unreasonable man persists in attempting to adapt his environment to suit himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
  --  George Bernard Shaw
"Trust Americans to do the right thing...after they have tried everything else." - Winston Churchill
"It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it." -- Upton Sinclair

(Might not be PO-specific enough)

"Nothing is as durable as a bad idea."

                           H.L. Mencken

MIT's Technology Review had a good article on "Deep Sea Oil Rigs." The subtitle acknowledged Peak Oil in a backhanded way.

Don't expect the scarcity of fossil fuels to drive us toward alternative energy sources anytime soon: we're getting smarter about finding and extracting oil.

The article can be found here
The Oil Frontier

Mahatma Gandhi:

"What does it matter to the dead, the orphans, and the homeless whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty or democracy?"

Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.
- Kenneth Boulding, economist

We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
- Native American proverb

People aren't satisfied, only they don't seem to know why they're not. The only chance of satisfaction we can imagine is getting more of what we've got now. But it's what we've got now that makes everybody dissatisfied. So what will more of it do - make us more satisfied, or more dissatisfied?
- Anonymous British Pensioner (1978)

There is enough for everyone's need but not for everyone's greed, Gandhi said.

"When you can measure what you are speaking about and express it in numbers,
you know something about it."

- Lord Kelvin

I use this as my sig at

"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein

I also like Matthew Simmons' "My worst case scenario is so bad that you don't want to go there."

Haven't seen the famous words by Petra Kelley the Green Party activist...

"We, the generation that faces the next century, can add the solemn injunction ''If we don't do the impossible, we shall be faced with the unthinkable.''"

"Down one road lies disaster, down the other utter catastrophe. Let us hope we have the wisdom to choose wisely."  Wood Allen
I meant Woody Allen, of course.
 "The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite insane."

  (According to some, he's one to talk)

There's one I was looking for, but couldn't find; something about 'Deriving energy from burning fuels is like spending off your capital, instead of deriving interest'

  Again, of course, he's one to talk, considering the amount of capital he spent.. but much of it was Westinghouse's, not his own, at least.

Tesla was aware
  1. that he was a genius
  2. that Edison stole his stuff
  3. that he himself was suffering from worsening mental illness as he aged. This last fact bugged him no end, as did #2. Truly, Tesla was a tragic hero.

Here is another quote from some old Greek or other:

"That which we love will destroy us."

"Whom the gods wish to destroy, first the gods drive them mad."

Or to jump over to Nietsche, learned from 'Conan the Barbarian'..

'That which will not kill us, will only make us stronger'

and did Friederich Wilhelm ('Froderick') also give us..

"To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of the women" ??

or was that Sonny Bono?

"The greatest happiness is to vanquish your enemies, to chase them before you, to rob them of their wealth, to see those dear to them bathed in tears, to clasp to your bosom their wives and daughters."

-Genghis Khan

"To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of the women"

That's taken from Genghis Khan ...

The variation is:

'That which will not kill us, will only make us stranger'

"What you do not want others to do to you, do not do to others." -Confucius

"Do not do to others that which would anger you if others did it to you." - Socrates

"May I do to others as I would that they should do unto me." - Plato

"What you would avoid suffering yourself, seek not to impose on others." - Epictetus

"Do to others as you would have them do to you." - Jesus

"Do unto to others before they can do it to you." - business as usual
"I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy."
 Tom Waits

"I wonder if old Jimmy's gonna hear it When I tell him that his logic wasn't sound. They'll dose him up on lots of evil spirits When they take him to the psychiatric grounds. Yes, me, I've got a bottle in front of me, And Jimmy has a frontal lobotomy. Just different ways to kill the pain the same. But I'd rather have a bottle in front of me, Than have to have a frontal lobotomy. I might be drunk, but at least I'm not insane. I might be drunk, but at least I'm not insane!"

(Randy Hanzlick)
Written by an Atlanta physician named Dr. Randy Hanzlick--who writes songs as a hobby--notice how the familiar chiastic reversal shows up in sounds of words.  This is a perfect example of what can only be called phonetic chiasmus.

By the way, Dr. Hanzlick told me the inspiration for his song was a piece of graffiti he found scrawled on a bathroom wall in a VA hospital in the early 1970's.  It said, "I'd rather have a free bottle in front of me than a pre-frontal lobotomy."  Hanzlick played around with the saying until he came up with his version.  The saying is sometimes attributed to Tom Waits, but Hanzlick is the man who wrote the song.

Actually that was Dorothy Parker.  A few more Parkerisms (there are many)

Brevity is the soul of lingerie.

I like to have one martini/Two at the very most/After three I'm under the table/After four I'm under the host.

She runs the gamut of emotions, from A to B.

All I need is room enough to lay a hat and a few friends.

Life is a wonderful cycle of song/A medley of extemporanea/And love is a thing that can never go wrong/And I am Marie of Romania.

Now, look, baby, 'Union' is spelled with 5 letters. It is not a four-letter word.

The cure for boredom is curiosity. There is no cure for curiosity.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts."

Bertrand Russell

I like that Russell quote.  But how do reconcile that with this other quote that I like?

"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man."

George Bernard Shaw

As often illustrated on this board.
Paraphrasing Reagan: the trouble ... is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.
Was not that the case with the Brilliant Pebble himself?
(Remember Reagan's Star War plans?)
What is a government without energy? And what is a man without energy? Nothing--nothing at all.....  Sum all the gifts that man is endowed with, and we give our greatest share of admiration to his energy. And today, if I were a heathen, I would rear a statue to Energy and fall down and worship it!

Mark Twain, Letter to Orion Clemens, 6/1860

Capitalism is a pyramid scheme.
- Harman Daly
I've always enjoyed Heinlein's quotes. He had a knack with those.

"Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded -- here and there, now and then -- are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as "bad luck.""
-- Robert Heinlein

"Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal." -- Robert Heinlein

"The capacity of the human mind for swallowing nonsense and spewing it forth in violent and repressive action has never yet been plumbed." -- Robert Heinlein

And just for Don Sailorman...

"Widows are far better than brides. They don't tell, they won't yell, they don't swell, they rarely smell, and they're grateful as hell." -- Robert Heinlein

Not specifically peak oil related, but certainly one relevant to my life:
"Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy"
-Ben Franklin
"The people of England regards itself as free; but it is
grossly mistaken; it is free only during the election of members of parliament. As soon as they are elected, slavery overtakes it, and it is nothing."
-Jean-Jacques Rousseau (The Social Contract, 1762)

"Disobedience is the true foundation of liberty. The obedient must be slaves."
- Henry David Thoreau, Civil Disobedience (1847)

"The most noble, pure and true love of mankind is the love of oneself. I want to be free! I
hope to be happy! I want to appreciate all the beauties of the world. But my freedom is
secured only when all other people around me are free. I can only be happy when all
other people around me are happy. I can only be joyful when all the people I see and
meet look at the world with joy-filled eyes. And only then can I eat my fill with pure
enjoyment when I have the secure knowledge that other people, too, can eat their fill as I
-Ret Marut

"when we think about co-operation. . . we tend to associate the concept with fuzzy-minded
idealism. . . This may result from confusing co-operation with altruism. . . Structural cooperation
defies the usual egoism/altruism dichotomy. It sets things up so that by helping
you I am helping myself at the same time. Even if my motive initially may have been
selfish, our fates now are linked. We sink or swim together. Co-operation is a shrewd and
highly successful strategy - a pragmatic choice that gets things done at work and at
school even more effectively than competition does."
- Alfie Kohn (No Contest: The Case Against Competition)

"Let us be thankful we have commerce. Buy more. Buy more now. Buy more and be happy."
- THX 1138

As Øystein Dahle, former vice president of Exxon for Norway and the North Sea, has pointed out, “Socialism collapsed because it did not allow the market to tell the economic truth. Capitalism may collapse because it does not allow the market to tell the ecological truth.”
“The human economy has passed from an “empty world” era in which human-made capital was the limiting factor in economic development to the current “full world” era in which remaining natural capital has become the limiting factor “

Robert Costanza

From (there are more quotes about economy).

Can someone help me? I'm looking for a chart of OPEC production similar to this one below but more up-to-date.


I have a larger version of that image.  The filename is opec_production_stack_feb06.jpg but searching for opec_production_stack_mar06.jpg etc. was not fruitful.