5th International Conference on Oil and Gas Depletion

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) will hold their fifth annual conference on oil and gas depletion on July 18-19 2006 in Pisa, Italy.

The reason for this post to two-fold, firstly to raise awareness of what promises to be one of the most important peak oil events of the year and secondly to allow any other Oil Drum members who are attending to make themselves known so we can meet up in person. I'll be there from the morning of Monday 17th, leaving on Thursday 20th, who else is coming?

The official conference site is here: ASPO Italia

Full provisional programme below.

The material from last years conference in Lisbon, Portugal is available here: 4th International Conference on Oil and Gas Depletion

(Preliminary version, June 12 2006)

18-19 July 2006 - San Rossore, Pisa

Monday, 17 July

All day: ASPO Committees meetings, Grand Hotel Duomo

14:30-18:00 Registration - Grand Hotel Duomo - Via S.Maria, 94 - PISA

18:00 - Reception offered by the Mayor of Pisa, City Hall, Pisa
18:30 - Projection of the film "The Power of Community" (City Hall, Pisa) (limited seats available)

Tuesday 18, Parco di San Rossore - Pisa

MAIN SESSION (1st tent)

8:30-9:30 Registration
9:30 Ugo Bardi (ASPO-Italy), Introduction to the conference
9:45 Marino Artusa (environment ministry of the Tuscan Region) Welcome address

10:00- 10:40 Colin Campbell (ASPO Honorary Chairman) - Keynote speech; The Age of Oil in Perspective

10:40-11:00- coffee break

1st session: PEAK OIL I

11:00-11:30 Kjell Aleklett (President, ASPO international), A world addicted to Oil, it is time to Sober up
11:30-12:00 Richard Heinberg, (New College of California; Post Carbon Institute) The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse
12:00 - 12:30 Chris Skrebowski (ODAC and Petroleum Review), Peak Oil - the Emerging Reality
12:30-13:00 Robert Hirsch (Science Applications International Corp.) Mitigation of Peak Oil - More Numbers

13:00 - 14:00 lunch

2nd session: PEAK OIL II

14:10 - 14:50 Leonardo Maugeri (ENI) Title to be announced- Keynote Speech

14:50 - 15:20 Jean Laherrere (ASPO-France), Uncertainty on data and forecasts
15:20 - 15:45 Pierre René Bauquis (ASPO-France) What future for hydrocarbons with the incoming peaks of oil and gas?
15:45 - 16:10 Jean Marie Bourdaire (ASPO-France) World Energy and Economy: What perspectives to 2050?

3rd session: GAS AND COAL

16:10 - 16:40 Peter Gerling (BGR, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Germany), Coal - the prime energy of the future?
16:40 -17:10 Francesco Racheli (GE - Oil and Gas), Technology evolution to monetize 'stranded GAS'
17:10 -17:30 Marek Kolodzej, (University of Illinois) The North American Natural Gas Crisis

17:30 - snack and drinks

17: 30 - 19:30 POSTER SESSION

20:00 - social dinner -

Wednesday 19 July

4th session MODELLING

9:00 - 9:40 Dennis Meadows, (Laboratory for Interactive Learning Durham, NH, USA)- Keynote speech, Peak oil and the limits to growth

9:40-10:10 Charles Hall (State University of New York) EROI: The Key Variable in Assessing Alternative Energy Futures
10:10-10:40 Renato Guseo, University of Padova. World Oil Depletion: Diffusion Models, Price Effects, Strategic and Technological Interventions
10:40 -10:55 Anton Trijssenaar (Independent Expert) Jeu de Joule: a world energy model based on system dynamic concepts
10:55 -11:10 Bertrand Michel (Institut Francais du Petrole) Oil Production : A probabilistic model of Hubbert's curve

11:10-11:20- coffee break


11:20 - 11:50 Mamdouh G. Salameh, (Oil Market Consultancy Service/World Bank) Peak Oil and the Rising Crude Oil Prices
11:50 - 12:20 Andrew McKillop (Ecohabitat, and Pakistan Wind Energy Programme), The impossibility of "market solutions" to Peak Oil, the emerging financial, monetary and economic crisis, and Energy Transition
12:20 - 12:40 Luca Barillaro (Compendium Consulting), New financial products: their impact on energy markets

12:40 -14:00 lunch

Afternoon 19th

6th session GLOBAL ISSUES I

14:00-14:40 Jeremy Leggett: (SolarCentury), Keynote Speech Peak oil, climate change, and the daunting arithmetic of carbon fuels.

14:40-15:10 Paul Metz (Integer Consult), Peak Oil and Corporate Social Responsibility - CSR
15:10-15:40 Robert Hopkins (Transition Culture) Plan B - enabling relocalisation as a response to peak oil
15:40- 16:10 Folke Gunther (Holon Ecosystem Consultants) Oil depletion and food depletion

7th session GLOBAL ISSUES II

16:20-16:50 Marcello Colitti (Independent Expert) The New Priority of the Oil Companies
16:50-17:20 Terence Ward, (Independent Expert) Iran and the US - Confrontation, Oil Disruption and the Impact
17:20-17:50 Chris Sanders, (Sanders Research associates) NATO: Out of Area and Out of Oil - the war for energy and the end of free markets

18:00-18:30 - Conclusion and Final Remarks




Tuesday 18, 15:00-17:30

Folke Gunther
Bob Hopkins
Faith Morgan
Richard Heimberg...

9th session ASPO SHOW

Wednesday 19th 10:00-12:30

Public presentation of national ASPO associations

Kjell Aleklett (ASPO International) - Keynote
Dick Lawrence (ASPO USA)
Luca Mercalli (ASPO Italy)
Hirose/Okubo (ASPO Japan)
Bruce Robinson (ASPO Australia)
...... (ASPO China)
........ (ASPO Norway)
.......... (ASPO Indonesia)

I'm also going; based on last year's ASPO depletion workshop in Lisbon (which I also attended) it should be a very informative conference.

I met with one of the directors of ODAC last week, he's also going so that makes at least 2 of us from the Aberdeen area.

Last year in Lisbon was absolutely excellent, I wouldn't miss this one!  

Contrasting last year vs. Pisa is that there will be many tracks on mitigation and response.  

I don't know how this conference could possibly be better than last year but I have a feeling that I'm going to find that out in July.

Richard Katz

I'll be there, too. It's going to be my 4th ASPO conference! (I missed the first one). I hope Bakhtiari makes it this time.
No obvious item on the ASPO agenda about the impact of higher prices on developed but far-off nations. Here are two items today from one of my favorite canaries, the New Zealand Herald.

NZ current account deficit much worse than expected (from oil imports and asset sales to foreign banks and energy Co.s) so the NZ$ tanks and they pay even more for oil.

Continued power cuts from two big, back to back late fall storms.

Driving around most of NZ a couple of months ago (guilty!), I was struck by the vulnerability to oil shocks. South Island especially given the larger distances between towns. We should see Powerdown progressing soon at this rate, intentional not weather related, in a socially advanced country that is tapping a lot of hydro and some geothermal but has no provision for expensive petrol except to raise prices over and over again. Yikes, a test case! Last week the government reported that their petrol tax revenues are being undermined as Kiwis drive less.

And across 'the ditch', Aussies also get body-slammed by oil imports in May:
"Australia's single biggest monthly bill for imported oil is threatening to blow-out the nation's trade deficit as well as inflict even more pain on motorists. Two billion litres of petroleum products, worth more than AUS$2.3 billion, were brought into the country during May - some $500 million more than April."
Allright, somebody's gotta make this comment.  I suppose it'll have to be me.

Does anybody else think that logo is, ehm... odd?  Tilt your head to the left.

Naughty Italians.

Are you kidding?  Compared to what's in the next town over from where I grew up, that logo's tame.

And yes, it's fabled that it'll go limp if a virgin ever graduates from E. Michigan U.

...I heard the same thing will happen to the ASPO-5 logo if Megan Quinn ever renounces peak oil.....;-)

(sorry, how could I resist a punch line like that.....!

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

I'll be there; I'll arrive Sunday evening and leave Thursday. A TOD meeting would surely be fun!

By the way, on the 4th Workshop don't forget you can buy the DVD through ASPO-Portugal, and watch the digest here.

I'll be there too. I arrive on Monday at noon and leave Thursday. I am going alone, so It would be fun to meet some other TODs.

Why not meet on Monday at the City Hall, before the reception of the mayor starts? That is, at 17:45 at the entrance of the City Hall? We should be punctual to catch seats. Does that sound reasonable?

Anyway till the 17th of July there is time.

One more thing, on Sunday the 16th of July its the The Luminara of Saint Ranieri.
All the city will be lit with candles, I've never seen it but it sounds awesome. I can't make it though.

The Luminara of Saint Ranieri its the 16th of June
Sorry :-(
I'm due to arrive mid afternoon on Monday July 17; also travelling alone so would be good to meet other TODs.
I pretend to be there. But I will attend the Monday afternoon Comitee meetings, so I might be late.

We could also make other appointments for Tuesday and Wednesday. And maybe a list of oil drummers present. What you think?

I am going to be there, too (Meeting of ASPO National representatives).
I'm from Portugal, you're from Denmark right?
List of Oil Drummers @ ASPO 5 (so far):

Chris Vernon

First Meeting: Monday 17H45 by the City Hall entrance.

I will be there for ASPO-USA, will be at the Monday PM meeting.  Jim Baldauf (Austin co-founder) also plans to attend with his wife.

Dick Lawrence

Hi Dick! (I am Daniel Gómez, from Crisis Energética) we'll see you there then!
List of Oil Drummers @ ASPO 5 (so far):
Chris Vernon
ricardogatos = Richard Katz, San Francisco, CA USA
Peaknik = Daniel Gómez, Spain
DickLawrence = Dick Lawrence, Hudson, MA  USA

First Meeting: Monday 17H45 by the City Hall entrance.

Roberto = Roberto Canogar, Spain
lads = Luís de Sousa, Portugal
Had been hoping for exactly this kind of TOD meet-up.

ASPO-V is part of my big move from Aberdeen and the UK oil industry back to Melbourne Oz.

The Monday meet-up might be tricky but will join other days.

Phil Hart

This is looking really good. I'm looking forward to meeting everyone over a meal and a drink on Monday evening, should be a great start to the conference.
Hi Chris et al...

I'll be there too with my crew, looking forward to seeing you.. Where are you all staying?

Andrew Evans

Andrew, I'm staying at the Hotel Leonardo (on ASPO suggested accommodation list) for 3 nights i.e. July 17 thru 19.  Chris Vernon has my mobile number to enable us to keep in touch re evening venues etc, especially in the event of travel delays on outward journey.

Chris B

Who's staying where in Pisa?
List of Oil Drummers @ ASPO 5 (so far):

Chris Vernon ?
zceb90 ?
ricardogatos = Richard Katz (US) - Hotel Duomo
Peaknik = Daniel Gómez (Spain) ?
Roberto ?
lads ?
DickLawrence = Dick Lawrence (US) ?

Hotel Leonardo
I'm in Hotel Roma, Via Bonanno Pisano which is some 100m from the tower.

Registration on the Monday is 2-6pm near the tower at:
Grand Hotel Duomo, 94 Via Santa Maria.

Followed by the reception 6pm at City Hall:
Palazzo Gambacorti

Looking forward to meeting people on the steps of City Hall around 17:45.

Email me for my phone number: chris@vitaltrivia.co.uk

I'm arriving that morning so I'll be registering at Hotel Duomo sometime early afternoon.

Lucky me! I just found out that I'm staying at the Grand Hotel Duomo, where the Monday meetings take place.

See ye all then!

List of Oil Drummers @ ASPO 5 (so far):

Chris Vernon
ricardogatos = Richard Katz, San Francisco, CA USA
Peaknik = Daniel Gómez, Spain
Roberto= Roberto Canogar, Spain
lads = Luís de Sousa, Portugal
DickLawrence = Dick Lawrence, Hudson, MA  USA
aceditor = Andrew Evans

Do I miss someone?

I rec'd an email today from Doug of ODAC - he'll try to meet us at 1745 hrs also.