A Discussion of Friedman's "Gas Pump Geopolitics"
Posted by Prof. Goose on April 30, 2006 - 3:17pm
If you haven't read it yet, type "Gas Pump Geopolitics" into Google. You'll find a reprint of it out there somewhere.
I will also once again direct you to our Politics of Oil "manifesto" as well.
“A third of humanity doesn't want to ride bikes anymore; that has profound geopolitical implications.”
—Anne Korin, the co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (May 1, 2005)
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,11319,769845,00.html
EV world has a fascinating interview if you can navigate their overengineered and unfriendly website.
Besides which, in that article he doesn't say anything except it may go up or it may go down. He doesn't even seem to pick a side, so I wouldn't even call it a prediction... unless you mean his conjecture that if Iraq/SA can't supply oil then prices will go up. Well duh.
probably not a bad idea
Peakoil will Milgov & MSM forcibly shoved down everyone's throat until we are 24/7 choking on it when TPTB declare martial law and reinstall the Draft. Until then, unless the general public quickly overcomes denial [not likely], we are headed to the '3 Days of the Condor' scenario and the 'Nuke their Ass--I want Gas' mindset. Mark my words.
From AngryChimp's post at the Yahoo energy forum, AlasBabylon:
1.4mb PDF
http://tinyurl.com/poca3
Source (html):
http://tinyurl.com/lp2bf
What does America prefer?
"Nuke their Ass--I want Gas" HUMMER bumper-sticker
or "No Thanks--I like Empty Tanks" bicycle bumper-sticker
From the movie,"3 Days of the Condor":
----------------------
[Turner]: Boy, what is it with you people? You think not getting caught in a lie is the same thing as telling the truth?
[Higgins]: No. It's simple economics. Today it's oil, right? In 10 or 15 years-- food, plutonium, and maybe even sooner. What do you think the people are going to want us to do then?
[Turner]: Ask them.
[Higgins]: Now now. Then. Ask them when they're running out. Ask them when there's no heat and they're cold. Ask them when their engines stop. Ask them when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. Want to know something? They won't want us to ask them. THEY'LL WANT US TO GET IT FOR THEM.
---------------------
"We see the rising floodwaters, secretly working to make the others drown first".
I would hope we prefer Voluntary Population Control & Powerdown instead.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUz_JHeM59M
==AC
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
"Gosh, Golly, Gee Whiz -- will we see oil at six bucks a barrel or at 60 bucks a barrel if we invade? Can we wreck OPEC and cause revolutions from Iran to Venezuela so that we can install obediant puppets in those places which happen to have our oil under their ground?"
Perhaps it does some good to look back to the days before "Shock and Awe" to see how the Neo-Con thinking was rationalizing every possibility strictly in terms of oil and how we could get it cheap and dirty.
"Peak Oil? Global Climate change? What has that to do with me and my bigger and better SUV, McMansion, and the promise that the age of 60 is 'the new 30' and so I have years to of nothing more than more and better orgasms between now and my 120th birthday....by then, 120 will be 'the new 30' and I'll live another 120 years with the same expectations, only softer skin and an even bigger and better SUV, flying to a senior vacation colony ("Bushville Grande" don't you know) on Mars on weekends..."
Ooops. Sorry to be so cynical.
What does TF say today? That the stock market is on a permanent, eternal upward swing? That real estate is an investor's bargain? That gold is fun to have lying about the house in piles? Or that he keeps a stash of gold coins in the change drawer of his new hybrid Lexus?
Ooops. There I go again.
The subtext of all American politics and media narrative today is this: how in the Hell can we kill and intimidate more people through brutal wars so that no one will stand between us and our next fix of petroleum.
That is it. Bottom line. "I want my oil, and I want it now, and I want it cheap! Where's my dealer! Where's my oil!"
Ooops. There I go again.
A few glitches in the system have allowed the term "peak oil" to be uttered seriously lately. Does that mean we are passed the stage where they laugh at or hate those who take peak oil seriously, or are we still getting to the "laughing at" and "fighting with" stage?
Are we anywhere near the stage of talking about nthe reality of resource depletion, of peaceful allocation of resources?
Are we to the point yet that people accept that global climate change is also an issue, and that we must take that into account as we deal with peak oil?
Imagine the USA this summer if gas gets to five bucks a gallon. There are too many guns on the street. There are still too many racial tensions and class divisions. Even five bucks a gallon will turn us on our heads.
TF, what are you thinking about, now? If we bomb the Hell out of Iran, maybe we will see revolutions from the UAE to Venezuela...again?
Maybe we will see six-dollar-a-barrel oil again, if we only bomb Iran? How about $200.00 a barrel oil?
Roll the dice and see what happens...again?
--even so, pedaling for peace and ecojustice -- Gary (beggar)
As in "jeeezus, just shut up about peak oil; I'm'a gettin kinda sicka it, and cant take it anymore.
" Response: Ah I see, yes, I was talking about "pique oil" a condition you clearly suffer from, not "peak oil" a sympton, along with night sweats, of Kunstler-Rupert Syndrone.
Don't forget "snake oil". There seem to be limitless supplies of that around.
What role does this buffoon play in the slick and stylized minuet that the editorial and advertising departments engage in at the NYT? Is Friedman the orchestra, the slick dance floor? Is he the courtly white wig on each head?
And Friedmans complaints about the consequences of the dependency? Outright misinformation. The US oil imports are mostly from the Americas and Africa - not a single "terrorist financing" country among them.
Friedmans idea that energy conservation/efficiency efforts will make a new growth industry is not so obvious. The Americans know really very little about energy conservation compared for example with the Japanese. But the real problem is that there is such thing as ECOER (Energy Conserved on Energy Invested). Huge "energy saving" investments will only increase energy consumption.
And it is not very correct to say that Venezuela is more authoritarian than the US or any threat to the the US. We could better say that the really dangerous are those petro-importing-authoritarian states like the US.
I would like Friedman to tell how the Iraqis will finance the "developing of their people" with low oil prices?
The idea of a heavy gasoline tax is sane in itself - only it is new and radical only in the US. But let's make it clear: higher gasoline prices won't make oil prices low. Most of the alternatives have very low EROEI and they will never be really competitive.
OK, Friedmans column is just a fine collection of the phrases used for years in this context. They tell everybody that nothing will be done to diminish oil imports.
Since Iran has intensified its rhetoric about destroying Israel, and since installations defended with SAMs will be harder for Israel to attack, Brooks says that Israel will be in effect forced to attack sooner rather than later, unless the missile transfer is somehow canceled. Not exactly a pleasant thought, given what might happen after Israel's bombs fall.
http://www.latimes.com/news/columnists/la-oe-brooks28apr28,1,401508.column?coll=la-news-columns
Anything that disrupts the oil supply and sends the price to $100 is a good thing. This will get people to transition away from fossil fuels and save millions of lives. It sounds cold, but sometimes you have to kill to save lives. Truman made a similar argument in the case of Hiroshima.
The only downside is if the war is short and we take over the oilfields and continue driving SUVs. I don't think our military is that good. We are bound to have at least 5 years of chaos and skyrocketing prices.
The third option is that the Repulicans are still friends with the Iranians. (Remember the hostage release on Jan 20, 1980, Iran Contra, Chalabi). In that case, this is a just show and we are all screwed.
What intensification? Other than the one Ahamadinejad comment many months ago that was challenged by Khatami and others in the Majlis, what are you referring to?
Clearly the short term solution to the present oil crisis is establishing a just peace in the middle east. Re-stating the hollow lies of bush, neo-cons, christian-zionists, and their media (including Mr. Firedman), is doing the opposite.
See globalresearch.ca articles.
Apparently he has talked about removing the Israeli regime (ie. government) and not at all about wiping the country off the map (a fabricated warping of the translation). It seems he believes that a better government in place in Israel may make life better all around. Gee, I think people say that about another certain government we know. But that makes sense, soon if you speak out against any government then you too can be a "crazy" and needing "containment".
Incidentally I just noticed when you mistype "crazy" you get "carzy". How appropriate!
And regarding above post about US-Iranian ties. I would not at all be surprised that all this "crazy" talk is just more behind the scenes knivery to provide a back drop for local politics similar to the Reagan hostage release. For the dumb and dumber element out there I would think that just in time for elections the appearance of Bush forcing Iran to back down would be a mighty popular saviour type meme. Even just dropping the rhetoric would provide some relief.
For other Iranian stuff you might check out:
http://regimechangeiran.blogspot.com/2006/04/irans-secret-plan-if-attacked-by-us.html
According to Iran, the latest military plan includes:
1- A missile strike directly targeting the US bases in the Persian Gulf and Iraq , as soon as nuclear installations are hit.
2- Suicide operations in a number of Arab and Muslim countries against US embassies and missions and US military bases and economic and oil installations related to US and British companies. The campaign might also target the economic and military installations of countries allied with the United States .
3- Launch attacks by the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards and Iraqi fighters loyal to Iran against US and British forces in Iraq , from border regions in central and southern Iraq .
4- Hezbollah to launch hundreds of rockets against military and economic targets in Israel .
According to the source, in case the US military attacks continue, more than 50 Shehab-3 missiles will be targeted against Israel and the al Quads Brigades will give the go-ahead for more than 50 terrorists cells in Canada, the US and Europe to attack civil and industrial targets in these countries.
And of course: 14 April of this year -
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/04/14/iran.israel/index.html
TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran's president, who last October said Israel "must be wiped off the map," stoked tensions with the Jewish state Friday saying, "the Zionist regime is a dying tree, and soon its branches will be broken down."
Despite that, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a speech that Israel remains a threat to Islamic countries.
"The existence of the Zionist regime is tantamount to an imposition of an unending and unrestrained threat so that none of the nations and Islamic countries of the region and beyond can feel secure from its threat," Reuters News Agency quoted Ahmadinejad as saying in Friday's speech.
Reminds me of Dylan's song "Neighborhood bully"
Neighborhood bully? ha ha ha ha.
Save that for the clueless.
Good point. I can not speak to its funding, there is a large Iranian minority in the USA, with money, that is not happy with the Theocracy running Iran, but it certainly is a site that that is right of center. However, do note that most of the stuff on it are news release items, like from CNN.
In looking at Iran I rely on MEMRI.ORG, Link TV's Mosaic, this site, two Iranian news sites, and currently am just about through a book written in the 1930's based on the Brit who surveyed the first oil wells in Iran and GRASS, written in the 20's about the tribal pastoral society in southern Iran.
Never rely on one source, never assume one cause (monocause) is why a war breaks out or a govt. adopts a policy.
As to destroying the world, we may do with our world numbers and what it is doing to our planet, but with the end of the Cold War we will not destroy the planet in war. Just maybe make a few places hot spots for a few decades.
Actually I am amazed sometimes what one can find on the internet. Just take a lot with a grain of salt. Get a hold of a current issue of MILITARY BALANCE out of the Institute for Strategic Studies in London, and follow Iranian news articles, both internal and those published externally, and you can see what their plans suggest.
Plus they want to show what they are capable of to scare us. Iranians are famous for what in poker we call "the Bluff".
One example. What are mini-subs used for traditionally? Clandistine missions. The North Koreans have used them for decades to smuggle agents to South Korea. Iran builds a factory for them - though production may only be one or two a year. Logically they would use them for operations in the Persian Gulf for SEALS or one shot torpedoing/mining.
i'm afraid we'll end up bailing them out with a stupid plan as they get dragged kicking and screaming to small cars
This approach avoids high-anxiety topics like global warming and PO. The Republicans framed issues like tort reform, partial-birth abortion and tax reform into easy-to-digest ideas.
Forget about the MSM's ignorance of PO. If you want change focus on ideas like Brown's and our own Adam's light rail.
PO creates anxiety. Anxiety causes inaction. Reframe the discussion and you'll be the Karl Rove of PO.
Is there even really an "American" auto industry to speak of?
Indeed most "American" cars are made in Mexico with Mexican and Chinese parts whereas most "Japanese" cars are designed in America and are made with American and Canadian made parts.
Off topic, but his site True Blue Liberal makes me wonder again how it is that the political colour coding got changed in America. In most of the rest of the world "True Blue" is Consevative and "The worker's flag is brightest red"
Both shit on the little guy, just in different ways.
This won't change until we have a viable 3rd party and may not even then.
I must say that I have never seen such a self-absorbed, bloviating jerk in all my life. This guy is SO full of himself, and seems to have orgasms just listening to the sound of his own voice.
But what is really discouraging is how the MSM seems to annoint certain persons as their 'experts' for no good objective reason. I think that someone like Friedman works out well for these people because he says things that make them feel good about themselves, what they are doing, and what they stand for. He is also very 'TV-viewer friendly', and that is probably the most important criterion of all for his widespread media exposure. He is just another media hack, and we should not waste another piece of post space even talking about him.
In TV Land it is far better to be an interesting jerk than a bland genius.
http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/business/index.ssf?/base/business-62/1146442161157680.xml&storyli st=mibusiness
And you only have to leave her a quarter.
That seems like a bit of a nonsequitir to me. We don't at the moment have a ready way to substitute Wind, Solar, or biomass for gasoline. Maybe if you wanted to tax NG, Coal, and Fuel Oil you might speed the build out of these power sources. Not that these aren't good things, but they don't fill in for Gas.
Also I don't know that Americans will get the jump on the rest of the world in Alt Energy he predicts. Absent political intervention, new factories for Solar Panels, Wind Generators, and associated controllers and wiring will probably go to Asia. By means of technology "sharing" whatever tech we have will be in the hands of our competitors. Good for the Earth and all, but not really for the U.S..
You're right that the USA has a lot of catching up to do, but it's the difference between starting from behind and standing still while you're behind. The sooner we get started, the better off we'll be.
The EPA is offering a research grant opportunity that I believe is a perfect fit for this idea. I have sent an e-mail to a hand picked list of university professors who have experience with government research projects. I'm looking to form a research team to apply for the EPA grant, conduct a social-economic experiment and surveys to determine to what extent the American public will support it, project the economic potential of WPH, and identify logistical, social and political obstacles as well as opportunities.
All government grants are awarded based on merit of the proposed research. I believe WPH has merit but your help is needed to verify it. You can help by posting your feedback. Let the professors and the EPA know what you think about WPH. Do you think this idea is worth pursuing? We need to know if Americans will support a plan like this.
Do you have any ideas to improve the plan?
Share any and all of your thoughts.
Tell your friends and family about this Blog post and ask them to post their thoughts on WPH
http://wepayhalf.org
Thank you
Craig
http://www.amazon.ca/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/books/0670063673/reviews/701-3956054-8192300
An excellent overview of the path that we were led down by the crporate and political elite...looking at everything through the economic prism.
I would have like it if Saul had discussed more about oil. If i remember right in the entire book he mentions that word only once.
Excellent reading and makes you question a number of your beliefs.
Rao