Guardian: What the...? (or, Hugo Chavez and His Extra Heavy Reserves...)
Posted by Prof. Goose on April 3, 2006 - 12:50am
Here's a Guardian article on Hugo Chávez and his posturing to "launch a bid to transform the global politics of oil by seeking a deal with consumer countries which would lock in a price of $50 a barrel."
That's right. I said "lock in."
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I agree. It's all PR.
Not trying to change the subject, but this might be REAL IMPORTANT if this globally spreads to the very young, very old, and very weak. Bears reading, and continued monitoring in my estimation:
http://tinyurl.com/ltaea
Excerpt from Yahoo News:
-------------
400 Chinese students hospitalized with unknown flu
Sun Apr 2, 8:36 AM ET
Over 400 students at a university in central China's Henan province were hospitalized with high fevers linked to an unknown flu virus, state press and a school official have said.
The outbreak began on March 26 when 22 students were hospitalized with high fevers, Xinhua news agency said.
The next day the number of sick students at the Henan University of Science and Technology in Luoyang city rose to 88, and on March 28 there were 208 sick students in the university's infirmary, it said.
"There were over 400 students that became feverish with the flu," a university official who declined to be named told AFP when contacted by phone.
He refused to detail what type of flu it was or how the outbreak had succeeded in infecting so many students.
-----------
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Rafael Ramirez - a name we should all become more familiar with, the man behind the scenes.
Very curious to see who our resident heavy-oil experts are. Possible, Probable, Proven? What are the ranges on Billions of barrels? Where exactly are they located?
How much of Venezuela's political oil problem stems from Nigerian rebel-type/Iraqi, Sunni-Shiite-type domestic problems, how much from Pat Robertson? In other words, isn't Venezuela a decent environment for Western oil companies as long as they follow Hugo's rules?
Bob's right about the inflation thing. Otherwise the numbers still look a little odd. He's willing to do this for $10 a barrel?
If it ever comes off, it won't happen smoothly, because all the other players will want their own little deals.
We should be trying to get along with Hugo and the Venezuelans. There is everything to be gained from a good relationship with the country. They are as American as you or me. It is possible to get along without necessarily "supporting." God knows we've been doing it with the Chinese for the last 50 years.
THE ART OF THE DEAL
< It is possible to get along without necessarily "supporting." God knows we've been doing it with the Chinese for the last 50 years.>
More to the point, we have been doing it with the Saudi's, the Omani's, the Kuwaiti's, the UAE, Qatar....you get my drift?
It seems as though the idea of dealing on an equal footing with our new world allies and Latin American compadres is so abhorrent that we will lick the shoes of nations in Asia rather than do it...why do we not extend the same good deals to our Venezualen friends....money?
Here's the deal: A new administration comes in. They announce that oil is NOT the issue (heeheehee, but say it anyway!), it is time for us to live up to the dreams of the PAN AMERICAN REVOLUTIONARIES, George Washington and Simon Bolivar, and stomp poverty with a turn of brotherly cooperation...we fet and dine Chevez...and offer the deal....America will provide say two nuclear stations in Venezuala to process heavy oil and provide the "energy in" needed to produce it in great volume....and provide domestic electric power to boot....BUT, in a version of "atoms for peace", we will enrich the uranium, and account for it to the gram, and we will dispose of the waste, which will be returned to us, accounted for to the gram....they will operate the plants, and sell us the oil exclusively in exchange, and to show our commitment to the people of Venezuala, we will pay the set price, plus the rate of American inflation each year.
That's the deal, here's the logic:
>The nuclear processing and some careful sequestering of GHG is the only way to keep the heavy oil from being a greenhouse gas nighmare, and provide the needed energy without wasting valuable natural gas.
>We head off the proliferation issue up front, making Venezuala a defacto "nuclear power", but with no nuclear weapons (status without risk)
>We lock in huge volumes of liquid fuel, and at a fair price....after all, if you really believe in "Peak Oil", $50 or even $60 bucks is a STEAL, and the predictability factor is HUGE...the American economy would take the boot of fuel instability off of it's neck.
>We account for the inflation up front by using our own numbers, which, let's admit, are designed to benefit US. We don't have to cheat, they are that way by design.
Lastly, we get LIQUID FUEL, and at a short haul from our coast! We can go even further, a few extra bucks to Venezualan higher education, opening up student exchanges, humanities and arts events....compared to the risk of falling short of liquid fuel, this would be a pittance...we would be willing to out socialize the socialists!
(and remember, should things go sour, we still have our fleet...an invasion of Venezuala, while not preferred, would go at least as well as an invasion of Iran (or as our failed attempts to date in Iraq)
AND WHY NOT? WE WERE PLENTY WILLING TO LET SAUDI NATIONALS WANDER AROUND AMERICA TAKING FLYING LESSONS AS THEY RECIEVED CHARITY MONEY FROM THE SAUDI ARABIAN AMBASSADOR PRINCE BANDAR'S WIFE, AND SET THE STAGE FOR A MASS MURDER OF AMERICANS....IS DEALING WITH VENEZUALA ANYMORE RISKY THAN THAT?
I don't know. Do you get my drift? Cuz it wuz kinda mine. You just added some countries to it. Whatever. I liked your post yesterday on Qatar. I don't really understand your post here. I'm not a big fan of capitals/shouting or cut-and-paste-carets.
My apology if I sounded as if I was repeated your point, i.e., willing to deal with China, and I generally don't like to use all caps myself, but, It was to make my major point stand out, which is simply this:
The anti-Latin American lean of America is astounding when you consider the crap we take and the deals we cut with OPEC countries, and somehow that never injures our pride.
I am not familiar with your reference to "cut and past carots", unless you mean the carots I use to indicate major points....nothing to do with "cut and paste, but I have a Mac and it is just the easiest way to create de facto "bullet" lists.
Is that conisdered a breach of a rule I am not aware of?
My post was simply this: We could play the game with real imagination and "lock in" to use the original articles words, a predictable reasonable price for liquid fuel, and buy time....not a terrible arrangement if you compare that scenario to the grubing for worms survivalist terror ridden, complete collapse even beyond nuclear war scenario that many peakers love so much. If we use the time we buy well, it could be a big thing....if Chevez is serious, let's find out. Again, apologies for any misunderstanding.
Um, 911 was made in America
CNN: 85% of Americans believe in a US Cover Up of 911.
Noone can account for the failure of WTC7
or how the antenae on WTC N fails first while it's bolted to
the core. Or that NORAD is still lying about it's timeline
or Cheney's quote-via Mineta,to the military officer saying Flight 77 is 100, then 50, then 25 miles out-"Do the Orders still stand?"-"Of course the orders still stand. You haven't heard anything different have you?
James
I really do not want to confuse issues here with
gasoline inventory record drops and crude at $67.50
per bbl and at a record in the UK, but we're going to
get 911 facts strait here.
...and the moon landings are a hoax,
...and monkeys fly out of my ass.
Blah blah blah.
Curse you BrianT, you are much too clever for us naughty people.
How does Flt 93 leave a trail of debris if it dove into the ground?
Why is NORAD still lying?
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/april2006/040406mainsuspect.htm
So you're really not going to like the fact that Dead Eye Dick
is the Main Suspect.
Cheney was in charge of all War Drills being carried out on 911.
Abd why did the Secret Service not rush Bush out of the Elementary School or even allow him to go into it?
These Jokers are going down.
James
PS-Wait til they try to explain what Atta was doing on Abramoff's Casino Boat.
Grow, grow, grow.
Good thing we live on a sphere, or we'd run out of space.
If by "authoritarian dictator" you mean elected in two internationally-sanctioned, democratic elections and surviving one coup attempt instigated by "outside" forces, then I'll agree with the term.
While I agree the above isn't quite as brilliant an example of the glories of democracy as, say, getting appointed by five right-wing jurisprudents after losing the popular vote, achieving sixty-plus percent of the vote ain't bad.
But I think that I have made this clear. Nothing I have ever said would suggest that I can be classified as either a supporter or detractor of the man.
While I have one definition of dictator and of free elections, I know these things have different interpretations. I am a citizen of the world, I understand the differences.
He is simply a fascinating character.
For $30 million dollars a year(and a suitable security detail) he and Rafael can hire me as their chief consultant on the US. I know they already pay somebody else more to do the same thing. Are they happy with the results? - ask them.
I do worry about what he could become - he may have the potential for authoritarianism, but I can't hang the man for what he hasn't done yet. So far it's above-board, and the large majority of his country support him.
And I agree, we should be doing business with the man. He's shown every willingness to do business with us, it will just be on terms that are favorable to them. It's still far cheaper than the alternatives.
See, "democracy" doesn't really mean democracy, it means "free market capitalism." We said we wanted democracy in Iraq, but were dismayed when the Islamicists won. We said we wanted "democracy" in the West Bank, but pitched a fit when Hamas won. Clearly, it's not really "democracy" we want.
Once you understand that "democracy" is a codeword for free market capitalism, it all makes sense. Chavez is "undemocratic" because he's bad for business.
Can you recall the last time that XOM was
kicked out of a country?
James
PS-Maybe they haven't officially been "kicked out" yet
but XOM is not moving oil thru pipes and replacement oils are being located. Fat Lady is warming up.
James
PS-Carrier Group on the Way
Based On What Evidence?
This seems to be a meme repeated by the press with no evidence provided.
I could make the same claim for George W. Bush with more credibility since he has already attacked one country without provocation and did nothing to stem the misery in New Orleans.
As I said to the Prof. "keep your amateur political philosophizing to yourself unless you can back it up with facts!"
You are a fucking jackass.
You just said a bunch of stuff. Where are your "facts."
You "could" say the same stuff about Bush. Why don't you? You did say those things to Prof. Goose. And your statements were just as stupid then as they don't exist now. I think I responded to your nonsense back then, too. Is that why you confront me now? A grudge?
I never offered my "amateur political philosophizing" as anything more than that.
But now you have a serious problem. You have to somehow prove with "facts" that you are not a jackass.
Somehow, I don't know how, you missed everything else I said about Chavez. This has to be a grudge.
I, of course, have plenty of "evidence." And can afford to sit on it.
Squirm away.
Oh, and in case I didn't make myself clear...
Fuck You
However, you still did not justify your original comments on Chavez!
Seems that you have a very thin skin when your "august" comments are challenged.
It also seems that my comments about the wealthy elites not liking him hold true.
The ball is still in your court. You have to counter me.
Perhaps you have forgotten your comments in the March 23/24/25 thread. You still haven't responded to my defense of Pofessor Goose.
Thin skin? Yes. I have a very thin skin.
My god...GW is a member of TOD. I always wondered about Oil CEO's true identity. Although, I would have guessed perhaps Rove or Cheney, since I'm pretty GB can't use a PC very well.
Prole must be right on target with his response.
Otherwise you wouldn't react so angry emotional, oil ceo!!
The truth is, we really don't support democracy. Democratic nations have an unfortunate tendency to do things that are not in our interest. We say we want democracy, but it's only lip service.
I think we do support democracy. All other nations have a tendency to do things that are not in our interest.
What was the real motivation for all those actions that we took where democracy was the "lip-service" reason we gave.
What do we want, if not Democracy? What is the conspiracy. What, in my amateur political philosophizing, have I missed?
The guy's a populist, not a strongman.
We want leaders who will act in our interests. Hence our tendency to support dictators who are U.S.-friendly. Ferdinand Marcos, Saddam Hussein, etc.
And as I said elsewhere in this thread, when we say "democracy" what we really mean is "free market capitalism."
But then this is about what we call it rather than what it is. From a "Western" perspective these are one and the same. Then maybe this becomes about perspective.
When was Saddam Hussein "U.S.-friendly?" Were we ever friends? Wasn't our positive relationship with him, when it existed, based on much larger geo-political factors? It wasn't because he kept sending flowers to the White House.
No, they aren't. But the fact that you think they are pretty much proves my point.
Hell, yeah. When Iran was the enemy, Saddam was our pal. We gave him the chemical weapons he used "on his own people," remember. Saddam may have been a brutal dictator, but he was Western-friendly. Far more so than the mullahs in Iran. In Saddam's Iraq, there were American movies in theaters, people could wear the latest French fashions if they wanted to, women could drive and go to college and work at just about any job a man could.
Some go so far as to say without U.S. support, Saddam would never have risen to power. I wouldn't go that far, but we certainly helped him stay in power.
This is an old thread, so I hope posting this in its entirety is not a problem.
http://www.vcrisis.com/index.php?content=letters/200603211834
A dictator is a dictator.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=30842
I agree. But I think it also goes beyond OPEC.
Infrastructure In one of Venezuela's more expensive initiatives at $5 billion total, the government is currently developing projects to create a considerably expanded modern rail transport system for both passengers and cargo. At present Venezuela has only 329 kilometers of railroad, and much of what short length they do have, such as the railroads in Bolívar state, is only available for use to members of the mining industry. Eventually the goal is to bring this number up to 4,000 kilometers of railroad throughout Venezuela, thereby enjoying the advantages of all that modern railways can provide and boosting the country's development. Though the project as a whole will take around 20 years to fully complete, work will start in the coming year with an initial increase to 475 kilometers of rail. This small expansion should allow for the annual mobility of 35 million passengers and 35 million tons of cargo. Specific projects in Venezuela's railroad initiative will include routes from Cúa to Caracas, La Encrucijada to Puerto Cabello and Puerto Cabello to Barquisimeto, among many others.
In addition to the priority being placed on Venezuela's railroads, the highway system is also a priority area for the country in the immediate future. The government will invest $134 million through 2006 in its national road infrastructure investment plan, which will be spent on rehabilitating and building new regional highways. The Inter-American Development Bank will provide the government with the necessary funds to complete the eleven projects in the Venezuelan states of Portuguesa, Apure, Barinas, Falcón and Lara. Guárico state will also receive some needed revamping this year, as Venezuela's infrastructure ministry Minfra will spend $9 million via national urban transportation fund Fontur to refurbish a total of 636 kilometers spread out over 14 roads serving agricultural areas of the state. During the project's first phase, the company elected to perform the works will rehabilitate seven of the 14 sections. The seven stretches, located in regions that primarily produce maize, milk, meat and grain, will total 388 kilometers. Minfra and Fontur will soon be accepting bids on the projects from interested companies.
I think you nailed it.
Chavez is detested by the West, and the likes here, because he brings the subject of "Class Warfare" front and center.
One thinks addressing this issue sooner, rather than later, will only help the greater good by preventing unnecessary bloodshed as Peak Oil unfolds.
One thinks that will never happen in this country because the "elites" would never consider sharing their wealth with anyone. Just look at Bush's tax policies for proof.
One also thinks that the elites in this country are fools if they believe that all those Gun Aficionados are not capable of hunting Homo Sapiens. The elites forget that these same folks have been practicing on Deer and Rabbit for decades.
To be fair, the bridge was known to be in trouble for two decades, and it was legal wrangling and corruption that kept it from being fixed.
Chris
The province of Newfoundland in Canada made a promise to sell electricity to Quebec in the 60s at a fixed rate from a dam they had just finished. The deal didn't factor in the inflation of the 70s. Bad idea.
My 2cents on Chavez: He's a cross between egomaniacal clown and savior to the poor. Rich Venezuelan expats I know here hate his guts but that's not surprising. He knows how much of the world's politics are played out in the media. I think many of his programmes have falsified results but that doesn't mean it isn't worth trying some of his wealth redistributions.
So the wealthy hate him because the Poor like him?
What is your point?
I could make the same points about Bush in reverse with equal credibility - improper jokes, inability to command the english language, favoritism to the wealthy elites.
Seems that the unstated assumption is that a leader is bad if the wealthy and well connected are not behind him or her.
Well maybe that assumption needs rearranging with a return to power by the people. One thinks that a few heads lopped off by guillotine will aid the ultra wealthy in reassessing their priorities.
With Peak Oil this will come to pass - All those gated communities are just begging for remodeling!
There is a lot more to Central and South America politics than money or even class (whatever that might mean) - think race when you hear about elites in South America.
America has nothing to teach South Americans when it comes to racism - and for those who think 'Hispanic' means some sort of all-inclusive concept, do ask a someone who calls themselves Hispanic if they have Indio (or the appropriate local term - probably translates to 'animal' well enough in practice) parents to get a feel for what I mean.
This is certainly true for the people I have known from Mexico, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Nothing suggests Venezuela is different at all.
Not all politics reduces to economics or class, even in an oil exporter with a world looking at Peak Oil.
Chavez simply being in power is insult enough for that thin strata of Venezuelan society which considers itself better born than all the low life scum around them.
Watch how this plays out in Bolivia - could be quite instructive. And remember - Morales partially won an election by promising not to sell natural gas to outsiders. Something quite interesting is going on in South America, and it has a lot to do with a changing voice for people who had no rights for generation.
Let's look at total crude + condensate production for the two countries.
My WAG is that these two countries may be increasing their oil production, on a net energy basis, at the rate of probably about 1% to 2% per year, 50,000 bpd to 75,000 bpd per year.
The Canadian themselves are only predicting that their tar sands production will increase from one mbpd now to about three mbpd in 10 years. (If you look at total liquids production, Canadian production actually fell from 2003 to 2005.) And again, we have to discount to get net energy. What is somewhat sobering is that the country that is putting the most capital into nonconventional, Canada, is showing a production decline. Ponder that for a moment.
If Deffeyes is correct, and I think he is, this year well will probably start seeing a net decline worldwide of about two mbpd to four mbpd.
I cannot imagine anything more irresponsible than encouraging Americans to continue driving their SUV's to and from their $500,000 mortgages based on expectations that Canada and Venezuela will save our hugely energy intensive way of life.
This is production decline right? How much would you guess will be lost in net export capacity from important producers like Russia due to domestic demand growth?
And do you have any idea when we will feel the real squeeze? I mean not the pain at the pump, that's obvious if Deffeyes is right, but I mean real lack of availability of oil as a raw material?
Just interested in your educated guess.
And I would like to throw some oil on the fire: How the hell is Canada going to produce 3 mbpd from tar sands in 10 years when running out of NG in 8 years?
Assume: two mbpd production; one mbpd consumption; production decline of about 25% over a six year period (based on North Sea, which peaked at 52% of Qt); consumption increase of 10% over six year period. Result: a 25% production decline equates to a 70% drop in net oil exports.
As I said before, the net oil export crisis will hit, IMO, before the global oil shortage becomes readily apparent.
If we look at the past four weeks of 2006 versus the same time frame last year, oil imports are down about 3.6%. IMO, the markets are sending a price signal right now that the US market needs more light sweet crude oil. Key point: we have no idea what percentage of current imports and current inventories represents light sweet versus heavy sour.
My WAG, we will see a worldwide decline in net oil exports of 50% within five to ten years.
As for the nuclear power plant to power tar sands operations, AFAIK it takes 5 to 10 years to complete these monsters. Not quite in time wouldn't you say?
By using the Waste by-product "Coke", from Bitumen Processing, to generate Syngas for oil sands production energy. See Opti Canada for a diagram :)
I believe Suncor is doing the same from 2008 onwards.
Other oil sand producers will follow as NG goes up in price
I wrote a 2,700 word essay on this topic (and tar sands production) in the form of an open letter to the Dallas Morning News & the Fort Worth Star Telegram.
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2006/04/open-letter-to-publishers-of-fort.html
Good letter. Also liked the electric rail link.
Well Done.
Keep us apprised of the reply from the editorial powers that be.
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Feel free to use my letter as a guide for letters to media outlets in your areas. Rainwater & Pickens make a pretty damn persuasive pair.
Note that the Urban Rail article was written by Alanfrombigeasy.
On the other hand, maybe the infights legitimize your letter!? Ain't that the way science works? Hope.
http://www.energybulletin.net/14606.html
Open letter to Texas newspapers about peak oil: 'Why aren't you listening?'
Jeffrey J. Brown, GraphOilogy
The US media have two choices regarding the Peak Oil issue. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, you can now have either your honor or the status quo. If you do nothing regarding Peak Oil, you will soon have neither the status quo nor your honor.
published April 4, 2006.
Weird when one news channel is so out of sync with the others.
On the other hand, Karen Kwiatkowski was on C-SPAN, filling in some of the gaps on how these drumbeats work (sadly) within even our military organizations.
Venezuela takes back oilfields. Never a dull moment. And still the oil price goes up.
The capital cost for the Alberta Long Lake Project is ($CAN) 4 billion which generates 60,000 bbls/day of upgraded Light Sweet @ 39 API.
So very roughly, to get 1 million bbls/day of new production from Venezuela you would need to invest:
1,000,000/60,000 = 17 Projects x $4billion = 68 Billion Canadian dollars + another say $32 billion for inflation over the following ten years to get an extra 1 mbbl/day.
Who's going fund deals of that size in Venezuela ?
I highly doubt western investors will be gagging for it.
"Venezuela has begun to train military reservists based on lessons from the war in Iraq. President Hugo Chavez has been warning Venezuelans that there is a possibility the United States will invade their country. U.S. officials have repeatedly tried to dismiss these fears."
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5319193
We can only pray that these American threats are never carried out.