NYC Energy Solutions: Thursday afternoon
Posted by Yankee on April 28, 2006 - 12:35pm in The Oil Drum: Local
Unfortunately, due to my real world obligations, I was only able to attend the afternoon sessions of the meeting, but I'll take up where Baloghblog left off in the previous post.
Charlie Komanoff added a new angle to the panel by discussing the cost of CO2 emissions. He noted that in the past, efforts to reduce carbon emissions have been ineffective, since they ended up gaming the system (CAFE), being circuitous (renewable energy credits), or diluting the real goal (incentives for hybrids). Komanoff advocates a significant gas tax, to be phased in over a relatively long period, and which would include either a rebate of approximately $1400/yr to taxpayers or a shift out of regressive taxes while the populace is still transitioning to a lifestyle with gasoline at $6 or $7 a gallon.
After the transportation session was a session on permaculture. The first two speakers Andrew Jones and Andrew Philips mostly just described what permaculture is, and talked about their own backgrounds in getting interested in it. The last speaker, Keith Morris discussed some ways that New York City residents might start getting involved in permaculture, like advocating for green roofs, and agriculture in parks and empty lots. Another idea would be to publicize local agriculture by getting chefs and celebrities around the city to join a competition to see who could use the most local ingredients in an Iron Chef-style match.
The last talk I saw was by Matt Savinar. In fact, I don't need to give too much detail on that, since his notes for the talk are available here on his blog. The AlphaMaleProphetofDoom addressed 5 questions that he's often asked by readers, including "Why are people in so much denial", "How should we deal with our depression", "What's the most important determinant in how PO will play out", "How should our communities prepare", and "Should I be writing my elected officials".
Again, you can read his blog post, but I took the highlights of his message to be:
- The more money you have, the better off you'll be. Similarly, writing politicians is inefficient; instead, try to get the rich people to come over to your viewpoint.
- People are hardwired for survival, and all of their actions should be interpreted in this vein. Thus, people will always prefer the short-term solution, since this maximizes their changes of survival.
- In order not to stay constantly depressed, you need to divert your attention with other things. In his case, it's celebrity and sports scandals.
- The best way to help the community is to create jobs for 16-25 year old males. You can read more about this on his blog.
From the Wilderness
Normally these bets would be harder to press: when speculators get too greedy, smart policymakers (think Clinton's Treasury Secretary and previous ace currency trader, Robert Rubin) know when to intervene and make the thoughtless trader pay. Not so now. Bush believes in maximizing Big Oil's profits rather than transitioning to a sustainable world, doesn't know about gold, and could care less about the dollar. Right now the intuitive bets are far easier to profit from than they have ever been, or may ever be.
So while Social Security may be less dependable than it used to be, those who can learn about finance and take advantage of knowledge about Peak Oil, can sock some tidy profits away. You might as well do it while you can.
And while we are seeing a rare set of "one-way" markets now, as always, there will be backing and filling, even if broad trends are left intact -- and failing to see this can be costly. It is human nature to take profits after things have gone well, and for those caught leaning the wrong way, to get out when they get back to breakeven. Markets always behave like that and probably always will.
But my main point still stands. Rarely has the economic interest of the United States seemed so nakedly unprotected, or the general direction of such major markets seemed so clear.