European gas supplies and a more than gentle cough from Russia

You may have noted a couple of posts recently concerning the relationships between Gazprom and its customers.  More particularly the pressure being put on places such as Armenia, Belarus and now the UK to allow Gazprom to take over the distribution companies for the natural gas.  Well, just in case the message wasn't getting through, there now comes a new threat. The West has been benefiting too long from Russian largesse, in terms of oil availability.
Russia plans to cut oil supplies to Europe, diverting shipments from "overfed" European markets to Asia, Semyon Vainshtok, president of pipeline monopoly Transneft, said in an interview published Monday.

"We have overfed Europe with oil. Every economics textbook says that surplus supply lowers prices," Vainshtok said in an interview published in Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "But we can't reduce supply -- all our exports are oriented toward Europe."

That will change with the construction of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline, which will feed energy-hungry Asian markets with up to 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, Vainshtok said.

"As soon as we turn to China, South Korea, Australia, Japan, it will immediately take away a portion of oil from our European colleagues," Vainshtok said.

One of the other problems appears to be that, because Russian oil is higher sulfur, it retails at a lower price than the sweeter North Sea oil, and this is also causing some ruffled feathers within the high offices of the Kremlin.

And lest you think that this marks the end of the acquisitions that Gazprom plans, they are also now in talks that may end up giving them control of Dutch gas supply lines. In the meanwhile they have delayed a decision as to who will be their partner in the Shtokman field development, though planning to sign an agreement with German companies to develop Yuzhno-Russkoye which holds about 500 bcm, Germany's consumption for about 5 years.

This seems also to have caught the attention of the US Dept of State, with Secretary Rice urging Greece to keep Gazprom out of a pipeline deal between Greece and Turkey.

The US, a keen backer of Greek-Turkish co-operation, wants to see both countries reduce their reliance on Russian gas supplies. That is understood to mean excluding Gazprom from the new project, whether as a shareholder in the pipeline company or as a gas supplier.

Ms Rice is likely to suggest that Greece and Turkey make a long-term deal to buy Azerbaijan gas supplied by an international consortium led by BP and Norway's Statoil, which is due to come onstream in 2007.

The €600m pipeline project, a joint venture between Depa and Botas, the Greek and Turkish state gas utilities, was originally launched as a means of supporting a political rapprochement between the formerly hostile neighbours rather than an alternative route for channelling gas to western Europe.

Unfortunately Gazprom is already a part of the action, and may be hard to dislodge.  The new pipeline will also extend over to Italy, though given some of the problems they had with Gazprom last winter, I am not sure that is completely reassuring news.

And while Jerome is confident that Russia has the control and the reserves to pull all this off, I note the story in the Herald Tribune which notes that the Chinese are nibbling at Russian supply and trying to draw Kazakhstan into their sphere of influence - a zone that might, in time also include Turkmenistan.  Yet, as he notes, right now it may well be Gazprom that holds most of the cards, and thus can apply the pressure to get what it wants.  And with production from the North Sea falling, the countries of Europe have to find alternate supplies for the long-term. But, with this size of a hint, perhaps it is time that they all started looking a bit harder.

CRice should stick to making deals with the devil. Does anyone in the world take these clowns seriously anymore?
yes i take it seriously anymore. these clowns have thier finger on the button. "now, pick up a globe of the earth. see were china and russia are? see were the resourse are?  turn it over, that's the usa. up above us is canada, they have tar sand.  bellow us is venasuala, they have heavy sour. ok, tip it back up, now spin it to the left, that's eruope. or the west; now, they have had some issues in the past with the folks with the resourse. russia and china share alot of history, and in my opinion have had a pretty good relationship for a good long time"

ok that's how I see uncle dick explaining it to a yong gwb at one of his dad's sociel mixers back in ninety two

sorry, the sun came back out in no. cal today just full of it right now

Crikey. This is a character revelation. While this pipeline is for oil not gas it tends to confirm that Europe may have become overdependent on pipelines from Russia. Put another way European countries that pride themselves on no-nukes for electricity because of Russian gas may have overestimated. Australia is mentioned as a customer and is indeed a net oil importer while being a gas (LNG) exporter.
Hmm ... interesting.

Should Britain go with the U.S., which seems to be in a death spiral, or with the emerging co-prosperity sphere of Russia and China?

You know, I wonder if the Russians learned how to be capitalists from reading Marx, or just decided to use OPEC as a model of how to make money in the oil bazaar.

But one thing I am pretty sure of - the Russians know what they have in the ground, and they will do with it whatever they feel like.

Nice to see the Russians leaving their socialist past behind,  proving they understand that charging what the market will bear is only the first step in making sure a fool and their money is soon parted.

Do you ever think the reality of this situation will penetrate into the believers of the invisible hand of the free market? How long before their principles go away when they figure out what side of the market they are really on?

Time to watch the markets go to work, I guess, creative destruction and all. Lucky the Russians have finally joined in, isn't it?

As a side note - the Europeans are quite active in Northern Africa in terms of natural gas projects, but the Russians are a much bigger market in terms of exports - notice the relationship between Germany and Russia, to give you an idea who is likely to absorb at least some of Germany's exports if the American economy stumbles badlym (and these days, the Russians pay in real things, not merely promises written on Federal Reserve notes). The free hand of the market looks great when it is giving you things, but it looks very different when it is taking them away. Which may be an explanation of why so many people only agree with invisible hands stroking their bank accounts, but not strangling their future.

Of course, maybe the Russians are dusting off some of their old plans of how to dominate the West, ca. 1980, and haven't really become capitalists at all. Nah, that is too absurd - a former KGB officer is certainly the sort of person I would trust to defend democracy and free markets world wide. Wouldn't you? And for the thoughtful out there - do you think Germany has been investing major amounts of money in renewable energy merely out of the goodness of its heart, trying to make the world a better place? Germany is not really a believer in the invisible hand when it comes down to important things like preserving itself into the future.

Heck, Sweden's planning to be off oil by 2020 ...

Lots of ethanol trees up there, though.

Hello TODers,

I have posted this before:

The upcoming G8 Energy Security Conference in July, hosted by Putin, could be 'must see' TV as it seems increasingly likely that a hell of alot of shouting could break out over ever-depleting detritus.  I suggest they could more productively use their time talking about ASPO's Energy Depletion Protocols, Global Warming, and Global Powerdown.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

It seems that it is possible to have a profitable stock market without a prosperous middle class.
yeah, that sort of confirms my intuition about the success of capitalism.

In its modern, refined form, capital serves only capital, it has no need of actual people.

The myth of capitalism as a liberating force for individual happiness and self-determination arose from that brief historical period when hired help, both as individuals and collectively, had considerable bargaining power.

Now, not even individual shareholders have any bargaining power to speak of. Governments have, on the whole, disempowered themselves in the economic sphere in recent decades, thereby renouncing any democratic accountability for businesses.

The last hope for humanity : ethical pension funds?

What good are pensions of any sort in the face of a permanently declining economy? As a result of ever-tightening energy resources.

-G

I will take my pension in the form of beef jerky, bottles of water, seeds, and chocolate bars please!!
A Bidding War; Russian Reserves & ELP

As I noted yesterday when I posted a link to this story, IMO it sounds a lot like a bidding war between importers for remaining net export capacity.

Now, for the really, really bad news.  Once more back to the Russian reserve question.

Question:  which region has made more oil, the US Lower 48 or Russia?  Answer: US Lower 48.  

Let's assume that Alaska is to the Lower 48 as Russia's less explored regions are to the existing production in Russia.

On a crude + condesnate basis, Russia is currently producing about twice what the Lower 48 is.  However, based on a HL analysis, the Lower 48 may actually have more recoverable reserves than Russia, at least insofar as existing production is concerned (excluding the less explored regions).

Khebab constructed predicted production profiles for both the Lower 48 and Russia using only production data through 1970 and 1984, respectively.  Through 2004, cumulative Lower 48 production was 99% of what the HL model predicted and Russian production was 95% of what the HL model predicted. As Russia gets closer to the HL prediction, the rate of increase in production has been slowing dramatically.  

I am predicting double digit decline rates ahead for Russia, or at least for existing Russian production.  Note that the Russian Energy Minister has warned of the possibility of a "real collapse in oil production," if they don't launch an immediate exploration program, and also note that the IEA has started warning of possible production problems ahead for Russia.

Can regions shows huge production declines?  Yes, just look at Cantarell (second largest producing field in the world), where the remaining oil column of 825' is thinning at a rate of about 300' per year.  

IMO, any way you slice it, we are facing an immediate problem with world net export capacity.   Just look at the recent US import data, which show that we are paying more money, for less imports.  

The really interesting question (as in the Chinese sense, "May you live in interesting times"), is what happens when the exporters start questioning the wisdom of continuing to give us oil in exchange for dollars.  One could make a case that the price of gold is not rising so much as the dollar is falling.  

Once again, my recommendations:  ELP.  Economize; Localize; Produce.  You do not want to be on the majority side of the US economy--the side that is dependent on discretionary income.  

westtexas -

Kudos for your honesty and I agree with your assessment of commodity prices and the inverse relationship of the dollar.  This latest rise in oil may be nothing more than the mere fact that it now takes more dollars to buy the same amount of oil that it did a few months ago.  That could be verified by figuring the cost in euros over the last several months.  How much has that fluctuated?

If the US dollar had kept pace with the Cdn dollar since 2002, oil would be priced at $50 right now.
Has anyone plotted the relationship of the value of the US dollar against oil and gold.  How strong is that inverse relationship?  

Today, I've seen oil prices inch up as the value of the US dollar has dropped and reverse that trend as the US dollar regained some value.

Who's the chicken and who's the egg here?

The chicken is the demand/supply oil situation. The egg is the USA's horrendous fiscal and trade situation.Or vice versa-it is a mess.
What you really want to plot is oil:USD on one chart and oil: oz gold on the other chart. Gold is money. Comparing it to other paper fiat currencies (i.e. not backed by gold or silver) is to bring in the vagaries of that specific country. I.e. with AUD, you have the large current account deficit, same with NZD. I don't know how to format here to insert an image, but here's a link to oil:gold chart for the last 3 years. http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC:$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=t31084408462& amp;r=4249 As you can see from the chart, oil is rising even vs. gold.
What you really want to plot is oil:USD on one chart and oil: oz gold on the other chart. Gold is money. Comparing it to other paper fiat currencies (i.e. not backed by gold or silver) is to bring in the vagaries of that specific country. I.e. with AUD, you have the large current account deficit, same with NZD.  

I don't know how to format here to insert an image, but here's a link to oil:gold chart for the last 3 years.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC:$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=t31084408462& amp;r=4249

As you can see from the chart, oil is rising even vs. gold.

The  $US has been pretty stable against the yen and the euro for the last two and a half years. It hasn't started to drop yet. Can't really blame oil prices in the US on that.

Once the smoke clears and the mirrors break, there's going to be a hell of a fall.

What are you smoking? The dollar was bottoming off a 3 year downtrend against the Euro a year ago (went from roughly par to 1.30!), rallied for a year, and has resumed it's downtrend. It has hardly been "stable" against the Euro, unless you figure 10% annual swings being "stable".
The US dollar has lost 44% against the Cdn dollar since the Cdn dollar low in 2002.
Westtexas,

I'm not sure if I dare use the word 'interesting' to describe your work - but, it is. The bit about oil producing nations suddenly developing an aversion for paper dollars in exchange for their oil and gas, is really interesting. I think China is going to be in a very advantageous position relative to the United States, precisely because because of it's enormous manufacturing base. China, compared to the US, has such a lot of 'stuff' to barter and exchange, for oil and gas, as it has grown to become the workshop of the world. I know this is a really big and complicated subject, but your piece just got me thinking.

Great post, West Texas.

Economise, localise, and produce.

This is the only long term solution.

Good work.

Given the number of potential show-stoppers on the horizon in addition to peak energy, I believe that time is of the esence.  Therefore, I would argue that "long term" solutions, e.g., 5-10 year time frames, are not viable especially in the case of relocalization and production.

Let's take local food production:  I was a very small scale, certified organic farmer at one time.  I eventually shut down because it financially wasn't worth the effort unless I invested a lot more capital to expand.  This was during a period when people had money.  However, if we assume that people will have less disposable income in the future, I wouldn't have started my farm in the first place because they couldn't afford my crops.

My arguement is that it appears, and really I don't mean this as a slam against anyone, these kinds of things (ELP)are usually posited by people who aren't actually doing it/have done it.

If one accepts Hirsch's wedges, it is already too late to take meaningful action on a wide scale.  I think what we are heading for are lifeboat communities scattered here and there.

Probably what makes sense for most people are small scale gardens, which they can use to reduce the amount of food that they have to buy elsewhere.  
>I was a very small scale, certified organic farmer at one time.  I eventually shut down because it financially wasn't worth the effort unless I invested a lot more capital to expand.

Todd, could you provide some details about your small scale farm, such as your start up costs, what equipment you deemed necessary, etc? Your experience would be useful for those of us who wish to construct our own lifeboats. Thanks

TechGuy,

I'm not sure my experience is indicative of costs, expenses, etc. that others might see but I'll do my best.

I live in the Coast Range Mountains of northern California at 3,060'.  Our cliamte is more midwestern then CA.  We just had 4-5" of snow two weeks ago.  Our business plan was to provide organic food to our local, small marketing area as well as offering U-pick.  The crops included apples, pears, peaches, persimons, plums and vegetables.  I had a good idea of what crops to grow because I was on the board of the local food co-op.

Our intent, until the trees matured to give relable crops, was to focus upon two high value vegetables - tomatoes and strawberries - although we grew many others.  Because people in my area do put in a few tomato plants, we had to aim for the earliest possible ripening dates.  Therefore, we grew all our plants in a 1,000sf greenhouse and set out plants that were fully mature in order to beat the home growers.  When moved out of the greenhouse, they were grown using approved hydroponic nutrients, that is, I fertigated them.  We were high tech.

In the case of the strawberries, we grew everbearing day neutral plants in order to spread out the picking and not overload the local market as would have happened with June bearing plants.  I also did research during this time growing them in vertical grow bags to make picking easier.

Now, to the bottom line.  Our equipment consisted of a 1949 Ferguson wheel tractor and associated equipment and a Troy-Bilt tiller.  The fertigation system used simple aspirator injectors.  The real deal was the greenhouse.

In order to make more than day wages, we needed to expand not only the greehouse space but also begin to sell in other markets.  I estimated we need an additional 3,000sf of greenhouse space, would have to install a produce cooler and make some sort of cooler for my pick-up since we would have driven up to 60 miles to more populated areas.  These changes would have allowed us to hire pickers while we were on the road but I felt it didn't make economic sense.

I know this doesn't answer all your questions but it's a start.

I'd suggest taking a look at the Sustainable Agriculture and Education site (SARE).  They used to have a free, downloadable book entitled The New American Farmer in their publications section.

http://www.sare.org

ANother site with sustaibale information is:

http://www.sarep.ucdavis.edu

>Our equipment consisted of a 1949 Ferguson wheel tractor and associated equipment and a Troy-Bilt tiller.  

How difficult is the maintance on the tractor, considering its over 50 years old? Considering its age it got be pretty mechanically basic, although I was concern finding replacement parts for these old tractors.

I've seen new small diesel tractors that have caught my eye. I like the idea of getting a diesel since I think aquiring diesel will be easier than gasoline (ie Coal to diesel).

>Therefore, we grew all our plants in a 1,000sf greenhouse and set out plants that were fully mature in order to beat the home growers.

I was thinking of including a greenhouse, but I suspect that unless its backed up with a heater, it probably will only provide three to four weeks of the growing season. I might consider a small, well insulated greenhouse, backed up with a wood stove to grow a few citrus trees and for an early seedling start for crops that need an extended growing season.

It will be interesting to see what happens to food prices this year with all the maddness of making ethanol.

TechGuy,

I don't know whether you'll come back to this thread but in case you do...

Until society collapses, you'll be able to rebuild any old iron out there.  Do a search for "old iron" and you'll find lots of links.

When I got rid of the Ferguson wheel tractor, I bought a John Deer 540 crawler (That's from 1954.).  Parts?  No problem.  It's like the "very popular"  JD MC3.  Yea, I know it doesn't mean anything to you.

On new stuff; I have concerns.  The old stuff is out there and you can usually find a piece of junk with what you need.  Will this be true with newer equpiment?  I don't know.  As an aside, I was driving a '57 Jeep 4x4 PU with a '63 Ford 262 engine until I got my "new" '87 Mazada 4x4 in about 1989.  I had no problems finding parts for the old farts but the Mazada has an orphan engine and it's a pain...and it only has 222k miles on it now.

All of this old stuff is really simple to repair and work on.

I'm going to have to post this so I can see your other questions.

Ok, greenhouses...

Most people in the industry are going to either high tunnel or hoop houses.  They can be heated with propane and cooled with pads and fans.  They weren't popular when we were doing it plus we can get big snows that would collapse them since they have flimsy frames and poly coverings.  Our biggest snow in the last 25 years was about 5'.

We used Tedlar coated fiberglass on our greenhouse.  We had a rock floor plus a number of 55 gallon drums of water to store heat yet we always had problems keeping the temperature high enough in late winter/early spring...I just did a calculation and we had one that was about 300sf and one that was 1,500sf so we had closer to 1,800sf rather then the 1,000sf I mentioned in my initial post.

I would suggest buying the book Solviva by Anna Edey, 1998, ISBN 0-9662349-0-1.  She had a greenhouse on Martha's Vineyard that was heated by the sun and animals.  

Hope this helps.

Elliot Coleman lays it all out for the small-scale (5 acre) organic grower in his book The New Organic Grower.

Summary of food production start-up costs (from memory of my purchases, in decreasing order of cost):
  • Land (varies, but here in the Willamette Valley of Oregon small agricultural acreage is $10k to $15k per acre)
  • Water well (varies, but if you want to drill a well and power it with solar figure on about $500 for Oregon state paperwork, $4000 to have it drilled, $1500 for a pump, $2000 for PV panels, and $500 for a charger, plus something to house it all in, like a shed)
  • Irrigation tape will cost about $1000 per acre, so another $3k for a prototypical parcel of 3 acres in production and 2 fallow acres
  • Walking tractor (rototiller) $3200
  • Fencing to keep out varmints (varies, but I'm looking at about $3000)
  • Soil amendments (varies, may be as high as $3000). Remember, inorganic fertilizer amendments like phosphate have indefinite shelf life, unlike your bank account :p
  • Sickle bar mower attachment $900
  • Hand tools: broadfork, Glaser wheel hoe, etc ($500-$800)
  • Fertilizer spreader, although in the long term future the only fertilizer you'll have to spread will be that which you generate $500
  • Cart for harvesting and general farm use $300
One of the reasons I stayed away from costs is that they vary along with climates.  Things may be cheaper in other places but to replace my well would cost $30-40k today.  In fact, I spent almost $5k just to replace the down pipe and pump last year.

There are lots of unsustaiable options such as drip tape, plastic row covers, et.al. But, if the intent is to live off of local prodcution, then these things have to be rejected out of hand.  As do all the marvelous  theories that claim you can grow all your food on 4,000sf which, in essence, robs nutrients from other areas to feed the planted area.

What is going to kill local production is lack of phosphorous.  That is why I'm currently conducting work on ultra high carbon soils, specifically Terra Preta soils.  But, this is beyond TOD - contact me if you are interested because there are too many links.

That doesn't mean it can't be done.  Milton Maciel in Brazil often posts on the Energy Resources forum about orgainc sugar cane production.  Here is just one of his posts:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/90368

I also forgot another site that might be of interest:

http://www.newfarm.org

So, I've tried to side step a lot of stuff so as to not clog TOD.  BUT...I'm glad to have a continuing conversation off the forum.

Let me also offer a book that everyone should read, The Integral Urban House by the Farallones Institute, ISBN 0-87156-213-8.  It's out of print but Powells.com had some the last time I checked.  For some on-line flavor see:

http://www.motherearthnews.com/menarch/archive/issues/042/042-124-01.htm.

If the link doesn't work do a Google search.

>One of the reasons I stayed away from costs is that they vary along with climates.  Things may be cheaper in other places but to replace my well would cost $30-40k today.  In fact, I spent almost $5k just to replace the down pipe and pump last year.

What about using a pond or small lake as a water source (of course depending on the eviroment)? I was thinking this might be a better solution, especially the ground well water has a high salt content that would degrade the soil over time.

Another idea, is to use an underground watering system, to conserve water use. This would probably only apply to perennials or no-til farming and would be much more expensive.

>That doesn't mean it can't be done.  Milton Maciel in Brazil often posts on the Energy Resources forum about orgainc sugar cane production.

I've read similar articles about innoculating legumes to enrich depleted soil. From what I read, using a good crop rotation that includes biodiverse legumes works well for nitrogen replacement. Although this does not solve problem of mineral depletion phosphate, potassium, molybdenum, etc, which will require some external input.

Thanks for the links. I've found several of the articles on newfarm.org very useful.

What about using a pond or small lake as a water source (of course depending on the eviroment)? I was thinking this might be a better solution, especially the ground well water has a high salt content that would degrade the soil over time.

Surface water is highly regulated in many states. Here in Oregon, for example, you must apply to the state Water Resources Department for water rights to draw from any surface source (as well as any ground water source, for that matter). From my discussions with the local water master, I've learned that there are no surface water rights of significance to be allocated in the Willamette Valley. Your mileage may vary in other states.
CNBC just reported that Bush is ordering a halt to refilling the SPR.  He is about to give a speech on energy.  I suppose it's too warm for a Cardigan sweater.  Perhaps he will appear in a polo shirt and shorts?
I heard he's going to announce a probe of big oil price-gouging in today's speech.
Wow, not refilling the SPR is a big step.  It's a tacit admission that the gap between supply and demand is approaching zero.  Interestingly, China's Hu just announced a couple of days ago, while in Saudi Arabia, that they are creating a SPR of their own.  Note that China will buy the oil that we can no longer afford.  Pay attention to the implications of that is you assume the US will be able to buy the scarce post-peak oil and the 3rd world will do without - things may not work out that way.

I'll temper my reaction because of 1 thing.  Bush's new chief-of-staff, Bolten, is looking for ways to dramatize that Bush feels your pain on high gas prices.  So this may just be PR...

SPR is topped off AFAIK. So the "we will stop filling it" is a bit of a canard. It's full, so where would they put it (or so I read yesterday, who knows really).
Its not full. Authorization is for 700mm barrels, which it reached summer of 05 (for the first time?), then drawn down by 15mm barrels in loans on account of K/R. These loans are to commercial users (refineries), and are to be repaid in oil - recently, the loans were beginning to be repaid, maybe 1-2mm barrels so far. If Bush stops refilling, this means the refineries don't have to pay back the oil now - is he thinking they can pay back later with cheaper oil?
As an aside, it is therefore overstated for bears to point out that commercial stocks are around 25mm barrels higher than the five-year avg.
He thinks prices will be lower this fall.  After the driving season is over.

I guess he's counting on no hurricanes...

If you follow this link to the DOE, it shows how much oil is in the SPR, and the breakdown between sweet and sour.  

http://www2.spr.doe.gov/DIR/SilverStream/Pages/pgDailyInventoryReportViewDOE_new.html

Has anybody been tracking the ratios of sweet and sour to see if the only oil available to go back into the reserve is sour?  It has been getting refilled at a pretty good clip, a couple of million barrels per day... Oh, I take that back, it's a couple of million barrels in a month.  

Less than 1/10 of one percent of world production has been going back into the reserve.  Or another way to look at it, with oil consumption growing at about 1 million bbl/day per year, the quantity of excess oil being put away for a rainy day (raining bunker busters that is) is erased by less than a month of world consumption growth.

Wrong place, but I thought it was too interesting not to mention whilst I still remember what I heard!

We've talked/argued quite a bit about Sudan lately and the dire situation in Darfur. A civil war is taking place in Sudan, and ethnic strife is increasing in many countries/regions in that whole area. Recently a heavily armed rebel group invaded neighbouring Chad from Sudan. This may or may not have something to do with oil, and who controls it, my guess is, it does. I think Sudan produces about 500,000 barrels of oil a day, and Chad around 150,000 to 180,000. There is lot of speculation that both countries may contain substantially larger reserves.

China is investing heavily in Sudan and buys nearly all its oil. The French control the fledgling oil industry in Chad. There have also been reports of Chinese troops or 'advisors' being seen in Sudan. The French have about 1,000 soldiers in Chad and 6 mirage jets. Chad used to be part of the French Empire.

Anyway the 'invasion' by the rebels from Sudan was stopped by the French jets and the rumoured use of a handful of French ground troops to give the government forces some 'backbone.' The rebels pulled back across the border into Sudan. They will be back.

The interesting thing was what they left behind. Lots of expensive and brand new weapons, vehicles and uniforms, that wouldn't have disgraced any army. Where did all this stuff come from? After all the rebels have nothing but sand. The rumour is, so I heard, is that it all was paid for and delivered by the Chinese. Now, in the great scheme of things, this skermish in the desert, isn't that important: but it does open up some interesting perspectives for the future, no?

Writerman -

Your little account of the Sudan/Chad situation is really quite apropos to the subject at hand: countries jockeying for position in the face of tightening oil exports. It reminds me of the bitter rivalry between European colonial powers in Africa during the late 19th Century. I'm afraid we ain't seen nothing yet.

On the subject of where the rebels' arms came from, arms like oil is a pretty fungible commodity, particularly the low-end stuff like guns, mines, shoulder-fired missiles, etc. Somehow, people always seem to find the money to obtain arms. It has always amazed me how even the poorest, crappiest countries in the world are never lacking in two things: Mercedes S-Series limos for high-ranking government officials, and a squadron of late model jet fighters.

This is hardly a surprise.  China has been pretty open about offering weapons for oil.

Supposedly, they have even offered Saudi Arabia nuclear weapons, though the Saudis refused (for fear of how Washington would react, not because they didn't want them).

The surprising thing is the idea of China giving weapons to a rebel group that wants to gain power in Chad, and not a state. It's difficult to imagine the Chinese doing this without the agreement of the Sudanese government. This is an interesting escalation and an sign of where we may be heading in the future. The scramble for oil - wherever it is, and proxy wars, for example.

I heard a rumour that Saudi Arabia actually had bought nuclear bombs, and had placed them in strategic points in its main oil producing regions as a kind of Doomsday weapon it the event of anyone invading the country.

I'm not sure how much credence one should give these rumours/stories, apart from their 'entertainment' value.

"And lest you think that this marks the end of the acquisitions that Gazprom plans, they are also now in talks that may end up giving them control of Dutch gas supply lines"

That woodstove will definitively be installed before winter!

Best from Holland

 Ms Rice is likely to suggest that Greece and Turkey make a long-term deal to buy Azerbaijan gas supplied by an international consortium led by BP and Norway's Statoil, which is due to come onstream in 2007.

Notice three nations not mentioned
here.  

The Three-Georgia,Armenia, and Iran.

From 020106

But more dramatically perhaps, Georgia has been forced to turn to Iran for help. For the first time in 30 years, it is again receiving Iranian gas.

Now why is Georgia going thru Azerbaijan
to get gas from Iran, while Rice assures
Greece and Turkey that they can get their
gas from the Azeris.

Curiouser and curiouser.

James

OT - Coal gasification on National Public Radio's Morning Edition this morning 4/25/06

Turning Dirty Coal Into Clean Energy
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5356683

Can anybody post a link to the transcript of a speech Bush is giving (I think right now) on Energy, or any news about this?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12469582/

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyid=2006-04-25T142043Z_01_W BT005206_RTRUKOC_0_US-BUSH-ENERGY-SPR.xml

It's ongoing.  I'm sure a transcript will be up as soon as he's finished talking.  He's calling for an end to oil tax breaks.  He's not filling up the SPR any more.  He's ordered an investigaton of oil industry pricing.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/25/news/economy/bush_energy/index.htm

He also called for a rollback in $2 billion in government assistance and tax breaks for oil companies over the next 10 years for items such as research and development for deep water drilling.

"These energy companies don't need unnecessary tax breaks," he said. "Cash flows are up, and taxpayers don't need to be paying for some of these expenses on part of energy companies."

Jerome a Paris is correct - if the Democrats don't get on the ball and own this energy issue, the Republicans will jump on it. That one sentence will be good for a 1 percent jump in Dubya's approval rating. It sounds like these moves and this speech will cut the legs right out from under the likes of Schumer.

Karl Rove has spoken. Gas prices are a potential disaster for the GOP in the November elections. The new party line is that we're doin' our darnedest to keep gas prices low. Big Oil is going to be cast as the bad guys. Look for the federal government to overrule local fuel requirements this summer when Big Oil whines that all those different gasoline standards increase their costs, hence prices. Should gas prices hit $4/gal, I would not be surprised to see a sudden temporary reduction in the federal gasoline tax.
How are you going to reduce it? It's 18 cents.
However, note that Bush did NOT announce a repeal of the prohibitive tariff on imported ethanol. Republicans do not want to damage their strong political base in rural U.S.

As more ethanol refineries come onstream and tax breaks for ethanol take hold, I expect to see at some point a substantial increase in the price of corn--maybe not too long before November elections;-)

I wrote a front page article on eurotrib about these declarations (http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2006/4/25/42420/9093) because there is an irresponsible conflation between oil and gas, which are essentially separate businesses in Russia.

The most recent declaration is from the OIL monopoly, and has nothing to do with gas.

Jerome;
 I note the difference between the two - but there is nothing to say that one can't learn from the success of the other.
True - but I find the headlines on gas supplies highly misleading after declarations by the oil pipeline monopoly...