W: "It's Going to Be a Tough Summer" (and a late night open thread)
Posted by Prof. Goose on April 23, 2006 - 11:42pm
US President George W. Bush has warned rising oil prices will mean a "tough summer" for US consumers as the high cost of gasoline (petrol) showed signs of becoming a big political issue. But even as more Americans expressed discontent over the price of filling up their gas tanks, Bush suggested there was little his government could do in the short term about the problem. "We're going to have a tough summer because people are beginning to drive now during tight supply," Bush said as he toured a California facility developing hydrogen-powered vehicles.Article link here.
“What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of energy in America.”
—George W. Bush, May 2001
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Computer-matched car pooling -- the next "killer app" and good energy policy
Hmmm. Is that true?
He suggests a computerized carpooling system, similar to one truck drivers already use.
Though what I found most interesting was that even on dKos, full of lefty treehuggers, most people said they wouldn't use such a system.
Peak oil will inevitably cause so much pain and dieoff that we have a moral responsibility to take the positive opportunities it offers which are to reorganize ourselves into small tribes living in harmony with the land. Carpooling is just a way to prolong this ugly mess.
And a bicycle is even better than running.
People always say that they don't want to carpool, or give up their SUV or their home 100 miles away from work. And ofcoarse, cycling is completely out of the question, because it is not practical in the good ol' US of A. It's just Un-American!
However, in the end, it is all just talk. I know for sure, because it happened already 30 years ago in Europe and in Japan.
I live in the Houston area, and bought gasoline this weekend at below $3/gal, and most of the gas stations I passed by had regular unleaded for less than $3/gal.
in my hometown newspaper on oil/gas
prices.
That tells me that we're no where near the
peak price.
Kunstler has the same opinion-
This morning's electronic edition of The New York Times displays not one home page headline about oil or gasoline prices, despite the trauma of the week just passed.
James
Given that google placement is driven by clicks/links, I think that means it wasn't getting much online attention.
On the other hand, it was fun to flip cable news channels about mid-day yesterday, when they were all running concurrent gas price stories.
Yes, the news is there. but I still have to
hunt for it.
It just doesn't have that "panic" feel to it.
You know, like when the cities turned off their skyscraper lights at night. That sort of thing.
And the focus seems to be on windfall profits
tax. Yea, that'll get more gas to the consumer.
James
Take the outer limits of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) as an example. Yes, that's the suburbs, but fortunately they are blessed with the GO Transit commuter train & bus system. If you're travelling on your own, it makes sense to leave the vehicle at home and take the train downtown. But if you are already paying to maintain a car it is cheaper to drive as soon as you can find just one other person who is going your way - this remains true even if gas triples in price.
For example, the current cost for two people to take the GO Train 50kms to downtown Toronto is $24.00 ($12.00 per person, return fare). So it's cheaper for two people to carpool the 100km round trip (provided, of course, one has free parking and an efficient car).
To illustrate, let's imagine that the price gas increases from $1.00/litre to $3.00/litre. Two people in a Toyota Yaris averaging 7l/100km would pay just $21 in gas - that's still $3 less than two train tickets. Bump that up to four people in a car and it's just $5.25 per person, per day: so even with $3 gas that's less than half the current public transit price.
The cities of the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton, along with Transport Canada, have already started a carpool site at http://www.carpoolzone.smartcommute.ca
We are in the eye of a storm. A wrathful electorate, a military-industrial machine bent on war, political leaders who have committed outright crimes, and an election coming up that could prove to be a very adverse plebiscite. How can this play out? I mean this as a very serious question. What are the possible scenarios?
The Republicans will "win" with 51% of the vote, and 70+% of Americans will scratch their heads wondering why their side didn't win. The landslide majority voting for John Kerry certainly experienced this in 2004.
Rigged elections won't change anything.
Perhaps they don't even need to rig in 2006. So many of the people I know who actually got out and voted in 2000, 2002, and 2004 don't see the point in driving to a voting station. We can write our votes on a piece of paper and burn it ourselves and save the gas money.
The evidence is in - the Republicans stole the 2004 election.
Read Fooled Again by Mark Crispin Miller.
I'm getting sick of seeing the Dems say they're not happy with the way the war is being run because...... .they'd draft more working class kids (not their own kids!) and send 'em over there and kill more Iraquis. Why, Kerry'd have had us in Iran and Syria by now.
It never occurs to them that maybe no wars for oil and looking at an orderly powerdown and a flattening of the class structure might be the way to go.
Today I heard that the Dems are behind a movement to subsidize cheap gas in the US even more than it's already being paid for. Motor on! Drive your SUV down to that polling place and vote Dem! And since you're passing the army recruiting office on the way, better sign up your kid(s), we're gonna need them....
I am not at all happy with the neocon takeover of the Republican party but I think the Dems are dead as a political party.
Bush seems to rule by naked power, fear and lies. Maybe that's the only thing that will work any more.
Here's the result of populism:
Specter: U.S. should consider windfall oil tax
A Republican, calling for more taxes on big business. Amazing.
But it won't help...unless we use those taxes to prepare for peak oil.
A new party that is not only populist, but reveres constitutional rights as well as individual liberties. I've had this rather insane idea of late of running for congress as a 'guerilla' candidate, complete with three piece suit and ape mask. Considering the incumbent in my district (a true mountain of intellect Virgil Goode (R) Virginia's 5th congressional district) and the sorry assemblage of Democratic challengers, I fear the election shall be little more than a tag-team cage match between the traditional parties. As always with professional wrestling, 'The Fix is IN!'
Subkommander Dred
If the election process is easily compromised by electronic voting systems, then all is lost.
But he's not the best public speaker, and his New England style is a bit off-putting to the rest of the country. He's not a very good candidate, I freely concede. I think he would be a very good president, though. He could be made to understand the problem we face in peak oil. (Simmons thinks Bush just didn't get it, and I'm inclined to agree. The man has simply lost too many brain cells to drugs and alcohol.)
Whether Kerry or anyone else could do anything about peak oil is a different question, of course. I suspect we need another Clinton - someone with far more political skill and charisma than Bush, Gore, or Kerry have. Someone who could win people over, and convince them of the need to make changes.
As much as I hate to admit it, Brother Fleam is correct;
The Republicans are goons, and the Democrats are all on the take. As for me, I am taking my money out of politics, real estate and the stock market and have started betting heavily on junior high soccer.
Subkommander Dred
When I worked for the DoD, we were told we had to avoid even the appearance if impropriety. It was good advice, and it's telling that our present electoral system isn't even bothering to try.
I have never missed voting in an election - it was important to me. I may vote this time too, but it is far from important to me now. Mostly I'll be just going through the motions because it costs me little to do so - I have no expectations that it will matter at all.
It's not who votes, it's who counts the votes.
As Prole so adequately lays it out what else besides
the end of the Age of Oil could make sense of the Utter
disregard of the American People's opinions.
James
I witnessed several occasions where the ES&S touch screen voting machines flipped straight party Democratic votes to straight party Republican votes.
This occurred when frustrated senior citizens asked for assistance after the inexplicable changes.
All was brought to the attention of the Republican election judge who refused to impound the suspect machines.
One can learn more about the flawed voting machines and 2004 election at www.brdablog.com among other sites.
And thank you for relating your eyewitness to what was going on too. People want to write these off as small irregularities, but clearly we have documented how widespread it was that the "margin of victory" for Bush is ridiculously meaningless.
How can so many hundreds if not thousands of documented witnesses be wrong? Because the nice christian men and their unexaminable black box machines said so.. please redeem brain for alliegance pin at participating grocers.
If the later is true why take the risk of stealing elections? And why manipulate it at all, honesty in the system is the insurance for making loosing an election a learning experience and not a disaster.
Both sides benefits from a large ammount of honesty in the system since that gives a stability one can depend upon for quite some time. Otherwise you end up in the dictators trap, unable to loose the grip on power and get a life in fear until old age catches the individual or organization. If you fuck it up enough neither your grandchildren or young friends will have reasonable future.
This thread is drifting from peak oil. :-(
Anyway, the main thing to remember is that a company will give to both parties as it represents an hedge against the risk of choosing which will win. A company might have a prefered candidate, but why risk all the money on him?
The last decade has also seen great consolidation of the media. This dynamic changes the politics immensely, allowing near perfect suppression of opposing POV and endless repetition of truthiness and propaganda.
The most important element here, however is Bush's absolutely insane lust for power, with a complient public inane enough to think he will step aside in 2008.
But it's not. Stolen Elections would be one of the first signs of PeakOil.
Honest Elections would put actual reps in power
who would do the Common Sense things.
Such as Carter's Malaise Speech.
The Military /Industrial Complex was determined
to keep the Status quo (Redistribution of wealth to the
Top 1%) as long as possible.
Meaning gas guzzling cars/no passenger railroads
and debt/war to lubricate the machine.
James
It probably didn't affect the outcome of the Texas vote in 2004. But if that happens in the 2006 election, it could matter.
What needs to happen is this: you or someone like you, and the disenfranchised voter, or someone like her, need to hire a lawyer and go downtown and start swearing out affadavits. You may not even need a lawyer. You know all the oaths you signed as an election worker? They are legally binding and taken very seriously.
Of course you and the voter will take a lot of flack from the Dallas County Clerk, but this sort of stuff needs immediate publicity. If possible, keep the election tied up in courts until it's settled. Get the Observer involved; call Laura Miller.
That said, I'm not sure what I'd do in a similar situation.
Note that if it's a deliberate programmed error, which we suspect it was, impounding the machine would accomplish nothing. The troubleshooter would run hardware selftests which would show it in working order.
I no longer live in Texas.
Nevertheless thanks for the suggestions.
At the time the ES&S machines failed, I represented the Martin Frost congressional campaign.
They decided not to pursue legal recourse at the time.
It all boils down to what the candidates want to do.
Merle Haggard has a new tune:
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0725-02.htm
A new Merle Haggard song that's critical of the media's coverage of the war in Iraq
The same Merle who was singing 'love it or leave it' about America.
http://www.cowboylyrics.com/lyrics/haggard-merle/fightin-side-of-me-496.html
And Demopublicans laying down with Republicrats
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0406/042106nj1.htm
over how the budget is being done.
So.... where is "large segment", because from where I sit as a member of the 103rd fighting keybordists....that segment is shrinking.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm
I agree that this "large segment" is probably (and hopefully) shrinking but Fox News and Rush Limbaugh aren't exactly going out of busines. This large segment is found in rural counties, in mega-churches, the military, etc. Remember by square mileage, Bush won
- Land mass can't vote.
- Bush was the loser. The majority of people eligable to vote opted to not select Mr. Bush.
Thanks for trying.Glad you see that your claim was such.
The reality is that in the last election the overwelming majority did not opt to vote for the present person who claims the mantle of The Presidantacy of the United States.
For instance, the Republicans can't win an election without stealing Florida, and Florida hasn't voted Republican (whatever the Supreme Court says) since 1988. The numbers simply aren't there. The first time they lose the governorship in Florida they lose their ability to steal an election and it's all over. Permanent Democratic presidential victories forever.
But the Republicans still have Senate overrepresentation, and parity in the House.
wow! merle's a peaker? this is getting stranger by the minute
I don't even know the Dixie chicks, but I find it an insult for all the men and women who fought and died in past wars when almost the majority of America jumped down their throats for voicing an opinion. It was like a verbal witch-hunt and lynching. Whether I agree with their comments or not has no bearing.... As a country we need to look inward for the answers to the energy of the future. We need to bring down our demands for oil, rebuild some bridges and highways and allow the farmers to grow something that replenishes the soil. Those who don't know what that is, should do some research. The problem is not in Iraq and the answers are not in Iran. I hope were not buried alive beneath this pending financial collapse if the pipeline doesn't get through. Surely everything doesn't depend on oil!
Merle Haggard
June 2003
You are listening too well to your own propaganda.
The Afghan war has gone very well indeed and if it was the ONLY war we had on our hands it would be very easy.
Put the smoke down and listen to reality a bit.
The NYT had a very good graph on Friday that pointed out that the Bush voters travel 10-miles to their job on average, while the Kerry voters travel 6. No need to exaggerate.
TOD is reality based, not fantasy based.
And Afghan war is going well? Certainly it's been nice for Osama who has just released a new recording from his comfy home there. Not that I miss the Taliban, but now it is just U.S. controlled territory harboring the perpetrator of that most aggregious attack against our citizens in 2001.
And how can you miss the Taliban when they're not even gone?
The poppy crop after we ousted the govt hit record levels after being way down the prior year. The CIA has a proven history in drug running. Mena, Arkansas might ring a bell to you. Russian mafia and/or govt interest also have proven connections to the heroin trade. Convenient, since it's being made practically next door.
So they hired Al Queda to take out the WTC, the Pentagon, and the Capital in a preemptive strike on us, and Masood himself the day before.
Preemptive war rarely works out for the preemptive side as evidenced by the fact that we killed a lot of Taliban in the next four years. They achieved nothing by their alliance with Al Queda. Even all that extra money from the oil price hike only made the Arab Sheikhs and the Iranian Mullahs rich, which didn't help either Al Queda or the Taliban.
until here "TOD is reality based, not fantasy based."
Then I remembered; there are well over six billion realities on this planet and mine isn't even in the same city as yours. that said thanks for contributing to TOD, as diversity will lead us down the shortest path (maybe)
one more time
http://decider.cf.huffingtonpost.com/
6 billion realities is good. Let's all do good things so that we can keep as many realities as possible. Doomer I may be, but I have to believe we can keep a lot of realities alive and happy if we work together on the right things rather than consumption, competition, profit, and war.
Maybe. But then again, it's Canada in there dying, not the States.
The Afghan war
War? War? Please show the actual declartion of War as called for in the Constitution for what you are claiming is a "war".
TOD is reality based, not fantasy based.
So I look forawrd to your linking to ther Constitutionally correct War decliration.
Has anybody read the fine print on the 'Stop Loss' orders? How far up the chain of command does it reach?
Maybe people will be bragging "Mine's smaller than yours" soon...
"The Lexus 450h will be the most fuel-efficient vehicle in its class. Its fuel economy will be in the high-20s, similar to the average 2.0-liter, 4-cylinder compact sedan."
The Boxster stats I found had: 21city/29hwy. So, no improvement really.
Another reason for hatred of 4x4s is that they are very good at killing pedestrians. A fuel economy argument is not the biggest factor in the hatred of 4x4s, at least at the moment. Global warming and pedestrian safety issues are more important in the 4x4 debate than oil depletion per se.
Drivers can't see around themselves whein in an SUV very well, the high seating position seems to encourage aggressive driving, and the type of people who buy SUVs tend to be aggressive and irrational anyway.
I refer you to the book "High And Mighty" about SUVs, it's been out a while now so your library may have it, or on amazon for cheap.
That he may be, but he also typifies the glorification of the car culture. Fast is good, faster is better. His flip remarks concerning methane from cows are intended to raise a snigger from the worshippers and divert attention from the fact that a Range Rover gulps fuel at up to 17.7 mpg (depending on model). I look forward to the demise of programmes such as his.
cows in a barn emit 542 litres of methane per day and 600 litres per day in a field. At 25°C methane weighs 0.645g/litre so that works out to 0.351kg/day of methane in a barn and 0.388kg/day in a field.
A land ranger V8 according to the Department of Trade and Industry emits 389g/km of carbon dioxide. 10,000 miles per year equals 16,100km. That works out at 6,260 kg/year or 17.15kg/day.of carbon dioxide.
Methane is a much stronger absorber of infra-red than carbon dioxide but does not persists in the atmosphere. For the purposes of the Kyoto Protocol gases are rated relative to carbon dioxide by their Global Warming Potential (GWP). According to this site methane has a GWP of 23. From this you have to subtract the carbon dioxide that was not generated by decay of the grass. This gives a net GWP of 22.
This gives a cow as equivalent to 7.72kg/day in a barn or 8.54kg/day in a field.
A cow is therefore equal less than half a Range Rover. Jeremy Clarkson may be an amusing presenter but he is a fool about hard facts and has neolithic views on the environment pedestrians and cyclists.
One of the reasons for me cycling and walking most places is to stop paying Brown 70% tax on petrol. I have also noticed some cars are now (past few weeks) being driven slow enough in town to be a nuisance to me on my bicycle, so I have to overtake them going up a slight incline (which indicates how slow they are going) which is the easiest point on the route I take.
I've been feeling guilty about my fuel consumption (and, of course, feeling the pinch of travel costs)
So I thought, What about a hybrid? Smart move surely, and good for my conscience!
Nothing much available off the shelf here in France. I looked at the specs of the Prius, to see how much I would save :
4.3 litres / 100 km: C02 is 104. Costs about 25K euros.
It's bigger than I want. There are no SMALL hybrids around (talking small in Euro terms, mind).
What else could I get... Well, a small Citroen, the C3, will get :
4.3 litres / 100 km : CO2 is 113. Costs about 15K euros.
Oh, did I mention? It's a diesel (like about 40% of private cars in France)
Suddenly I understand why nobody buys hybrids in Europe :
Nobody's making them to European specs, and they're barely competitive in consumption with diesel anyway.
But it is important how the wehicle is used. It is obviously best for stop and go traffic such as in congested cities, busses and manny kinds of heavy work machines. And you have other bonuses if the drive train is electric.
There are no technical problem with combining a diesel engine with hybrid technology. We will probably get hybrid wehicles over almost the whole scale of wehcle sizes and types and then plug in wehicles.
For what it's worth, these guys ran a 2003 Prius on E85 and report higher HP and lower emissions. That's a bit of Prius abuse because there is no guarantee that the fuel system components will not disolve in ethanol. Still, it is an interesting proof-of-concept:
http://www.creedproject.org/e85%20hybrid%20report.doc
Fill er up with Biogas and you run CO2 free. All I´m waiting for now is the plug in version.
follow the link:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/03/bifuel_prius_ii.html
Wondered if any of the gearheads had followed the path of this form of Hybridization. I liked the simplicity, but don't know if the turbine was too noisy, finicky, whatever..
Thoughts?
I think our "impact safety" restrictions keep vehicle weight up, and emission restrictions keep those diesels out.
Given that "everybody drives" diesels there, that's probably what I'd choose too.
Lormo auto gets 157 miles to the gallon of diesel.
honestly, if it were available, I'd buy one tomorrow.
2009 they say... 11000 euros they say... we'll see.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist by temperament, but objectively, car manufacturers conspire to over-dimension what they sell us. Renault make a cheapish family car in Slovakia for the eastern European market. No frills, no electronics, robust for bad roads. My ex-wife wanted one, she got it in the end, but there was a three-month waiting list. If they made it easily available in France, they would be undercutting themselves as well as the competition.
Moral of the story: the car industry have the technology to halve fuel consumption, and substantially lower purchase prices, but not one of the big companies has the guts to make the first move, because when they do, they will downsize the whole industry, which is hideously over-dimensioned.
I looked into hybrids, but the total life cycle energy cost for manufacturing, operation and disposal was unclear, and the marketing left me more than a little suspicious that there were hidden costs.
So I went with a used Jetta TDI, and I'm very pleased. I'll likely never drive a gasser again. Once the last kid is gone and I've put the requisite half-million kilometers on the Jetta (at the rate I drive that should be in about 30 years...), I'll probably look at the Smart car again.
Small would be like the Honda Insight, they're really the mileage kings and about the room inside of a Mini Cooper.
Four cylinders power up in popularity
I smell demand destructing...
As I said the the guy at the gas station on the corner, this ain't a gas crisis. When I see lots of scooters, bicycles, bus ridership up, etc then I'll call it a gas crisis.
Not everyone is on board yet. You can bet some of these will sell (to people who can afford a $100,000 cadillac, poor gas mileage is not a concern)
At the rural coffee shop this morning the quote was: "There's lots of oil in the ground if the damned environmentalists would just let them drill for it."
Chávez Plans to Take More Control
Of Oil Away From Foreign Firms
By DAVID LUHNOW and PETER MILLARD
WSJ, April 24, 2006; Page A1
Next time, though, you might want to link to the article and quote only a few paragraphs. Copyright issues, not to mention it being a lot to scroll through.
The result is that the insurgents will fight occupying forces with undivided attention. Worse, such an attack is liable to create Hispanicist terrorism! Since there are guerrillas all over in Latin America, an "El Quaeda" could easally crop up, complete with an "Osama del Laden". Creating Hispanicist terrorism would be a big mistake, what with a nearly open border for the terrorists to get through - and blend in with existing immigrants. There are some ruthless Hispanic gangs, what with the illegal drug industry, and don't forget they know about IEDs. Between cocaine and heroin production, no telling if the Hispanicists merge with the Islamists to fight a common enemy - us.
That leaves us with a coup option, one of which already failed. Surely, Hugo has taken precautions to make subsequent attempts harder. The only option is we learn to live with Hugo, lest we make matters against us a lot worse.
Dunno how much good locking gascaps do. They're made of cheap plastic these days, and are easily broken off. Plus, some people at PeakOil.com said back in the '70s, if they couldn't get the gascap off, they'd just punch a hole in the gastank and drain the gas that way.
Hopefully no one will be interested in the pocket-sized gastank of my little car...
If they're gonna be ciphoning the gas again, I for one want the beads back.
I'm not sure I would love all of Bill's politics ... he is MSM at any rate ... but I do get a strangely likeable vibe off the guy.
And have you noticed? Oil prices have plummeted to $74.63, so perhaps we can relax now.
Just curious - what kind of car do you drive? I have an 02 Subaru Impresa OBS.
I have to get to work in bad weather (meteorologist), which is how I justify the gas milage which runs 23 city 30 highwyay.
I hope to get a used 06 Civic in about a year if I can find one.
Thanks,
-Bryan
I expect this to be the last car I own. If the gas stations go dry this year, well, at least I didn't spend too much on a car. If the happy motoring lifestyle continues on, I figure I can drive this car 20 years or more, until I retire. (I don't drive much.)
Thought about buying a hybrid, but they cost more money, and I wasn't sure how reliable they'd prove to be over the long haul. Since I only drive 3,000 miles a year at most, it just didn't seem worth paying a premium for a hybrid.
I don't have a locking gascap, but the Corolla comes with a gas door that can only be opened from inside the car. I'm sure judicious use of a crowbar could get it open...but hopefully, would-be thieves will be more tempted by the monster Expeditions and Monteros in the next row.
The ultimate deterrent would be a gas-turbine car that burns half gas, half Diesel. Useable only in gas turbines, it will not work in any piston engine. Sure, the syphoner gets his fuel, but his car dies in short order!
cause the last thing a bunch of kids hanging around down the skate park want to get their hands on is a couple of litres of ethanol... ;-)
Leaving the car at home you can afford an occasional taxi when needed, the price tag will keep you motivated for biking.
Anyway thats my approach, doing 2*26km from april to ice.
And my folding bike easily fits in the trunk. :-)
It's getting around the suburbs that's the problem. So I bought a folding bike last weekend with the idea that I could fold it up and take it on the train. But I don't like the bike very much. It's too heavy to be a good piece of luggage and too small to be an enjoyable good ride. I want to sell it on eBay and try again. Does anybody have any recommendations for a good model?
We had a discussion about folding bikes a few weeks ago. (I am looking for one, too - an electric one.)
If a light bike that quickly folds up is what you want, check out Dahon. They make very light bikes that fold up in flash.
http://store.nycewheels.com/folding-bike.html
... maybe you know of others. I don't have a folding bike but I know it's nice to try a few bikes before you buy - until you get one that just feels right.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/28/02319/6608
I envy folks who have put themselves (or found themselves) in urban areas that support that kind of low energy footprint. Well, urban areas that aren't sinking into the ocean, but that's another topic :)
The Tough Summer is going to see the housing bubble explode, and the Recession come into full swing, but the numbers will be hidden and we will have a great time till sometime next year when the reality of it all hits home. In the mean time, the world gets that much more populated and that much more filled with folks wanting to live the American dream of Consume till you drop.
Seriously, summer driving will be tough, and the government is flat out lying if they say they can do nothing about it. That statement is so ludacris I won't even debate it.
However I will suggest we quit worrying about this Ethanol bullshit. So what if MTBE seeps into groundwater... we're already gonna get cancer from all the coal powerplants or die from birdflu first. Seriously, I don't see as burning 15% more gasoline or other additive would harm the environment that much, especially just for summer... we don't have enough oil left in the world to really cause global warming.
Th Clock is ticking.
I think that he is making the case which is similar to the conclusion that I have come to that our present economic system is designed in a way that cannot handle the coming oil decline in a reasonable way. He seems to avoid suggesting an alternative though, and perhaps he envisions many small tribes on barter systems as I do.
He seems to belive that we might somehow mangage a controlled population reduction to carrying-capacity through some kind of regulation of birth rate without any particular plan of how to do so. I hope some brilliant person does think of something in this regard because a messy loss of 4 billion people is the real horrendous part of peak oil with most other results being very beneficial. For instance, I might even be sleeping right now if it weren't for all these electric lights and computer.
A wonderful book that sees the Big Picture. Endlessly fascinating.
How do you like this guy:
I have a vague feeling that if I have to choose between food and gas, I might choose the food ...
... and cycle to work, saving app $6000 a year, although I realize that cycling is very Un-American and supports The Terrorists.
What is the american way of life?
If we point out that Europeans have more vacation and free time, we are reminded that only by working as much as possible and surrendering the surplus value of our labor to the capitalist owners do we earn any right to exist at all.
I am paid less per hour by my employer than the price of a gallon of gasoline, and it is important that I smile as constantly as possible lest I be taken for a subversive.
Despite my attempts to look contented and try not to question the "system," the Department of Homeland Security has requested a copy of my credit report, and most Americans try to stay as quiet as possible given this kind of intimidation.
Eating at the Falafel Palace again?
Buying prepaid cellular minutes?
You gotta believe DHS has someone reading here...
Thx!
The Long and Grinding Road
Let me have a try at this, been a 'murrikan all my life.
It seems to involve:
(1) Increasing standard of living over time
(1a) So if yours isn't, you're doing something wrong, work harder!
(2) Freedom to strive upward, if your daddy was a shoemaker, you can be a rocket scientist
(2a) Hence, if you're daddy's a shoemaker, there's something wrong with you if that's all you want to be also. And Heaven forbid your daddy's a rocket scientist and you want to be a shoemaker! Strive, dammit!
(3) God, the Christian God, has blessed us as a Nation and others' rules don't apply to us.
(3a) No shit. People really think that here, although mostly subconsciously. Europe etc the old countries we came from experienced genocidal wars, starvation, etc and the resources in the new (to us) continent were so rich, this belief seemed to match reality for most of our country's history. Surprise! We're not any different from the Romans, the Easter Islanders, the Norse.... and as far as that goes, well.... don't get me started on the experiences of the Indians.
(4) It is bad to deprive yourself. It is psychologically unhealthy and you'll probably become a serial killer or something Really Bad For Society if you don't go on ahead and indulge! Our literature is full of examples, some of them actually real, of people who were deprived or deprived themselves and then went on to do horrible things. So have that donut, if you feel like the whole box you probably need it, deprivation is bad!
(4a) Just look at all the spoiled, obese, debt-ridden Americans......
(5) We live in a class-less society.
(5a) Orwell would love this one, we live in a society that's becoming very class stratified, but we're taught from birth to never talk about it. Or think about it. Just know your place.
(6) Growth Is Good! Growth for Growth's sake! Grow, grow, grow!
(6a) Growth for growth's sake is the ethics of a cancer cell - hope I got the Edward Abbey quote right. The idea of growth turning around, actually reversing, horrifies Americans - even some very green types. The idea of gearing back, really gearing back, is hard for get one's fat Americans head around - for instance I think up the idea of experimenting with making shoes myself, out of bike tires etc., and I can't help thinking of how they'd be marketed all over the country etc etc which is of course ..... evil and wrong. If I make 'em I'll be making 'em for my own group or village, and certainly not fulltime. And my pay will be in goat milk or something. Anyway, growth is bad, mmKay?
These are just some of what I think are the underlying beliefs behind The American Way Of Life.
Is that quote yours? It's brillant.
you had asked earlier about how America went through the oil shocks - the short answer is that the oil shocks were just a quick phase, like disco, which America was able to completely shrug off while returning to the American Way Of Life under Reagan's morning in America - a reference to a political ad campaign - after the nightmare of the oil shocks/Jimmy Carter, America woke up, rubbed the sleep out of its eyes, and kept living as before. The rest of the world actually invested in efficiency/conservation, and planning for a future with less liquid fossil fuels, but Americans didn't fall for such socialist/ecological extremist nonsense, and they kept living pretty much the same way.
But what is the 'American Way Of Life?' Ah, that is a good question, which I will try my best to answer without much commentary -
- Hollywood and its various products present a fairly clear view of the American Way Of Life - good always beats evil, the heroes are always rescued/rewarded, the bad are always punished. And the good can do everything the bad does, except when the good does it, it is OK.
- The term has no real meaning, unless you are attempting to sell something, whether a product or a politician
- Mobility is a major bedrock of what the American Way Of Life represents
- Another major component is that the future is always better, present results are the only true measure of value, and the past is generally worth merely being forgotten.
- The American Way Of Life is for winners - and anyone who doesn't live it is either a loser (generally their own fault) or crazy, by definition, since the American Way Of Life is superior (see point 2 to understand this)
- The American Way Of Life is considered so superior, it is assumed that the entire world is desperate to live exactly the same way. (Trust me, Americans seem not to comprehend that European societies/economies are a matter of choice - Europeans expect health care, vacation time, and various rules governing what employers can do to workers. Americans think these things exist here merely because Europeans are stuck in the past, and as soon as they are able, they will live the American Way Of Life.)
- The American Way Of Life is about to collide with reality in a way that Europeans are unlikely to understand, though German resentment against losing WWI might give you a fair idea. And no, I am not saying how it will turn out, merely that the contrast between belief and reality will be roughly the same as in Germany at that time - several generations brought up secure in the utter superiority of Germany and its social system had to confront the reality that the entire structure they grew up in had been splintered, and the life they were currently living was the result - and that life, after the essentially senseless death and maiming of millions of young men, involved mass hunger and unemployment, total economic collapse, and a sense that 'Siegerjustiz' (not so easily translated - victor/winner justice doesn't quite cover it - try more something like 'the victor rules') and being stabbed in the back by 'them' was the reason for all the misery they suffered.
I think Americans, being normal human beings, will attempt to blame everything else for the failure of the American Way Of Life, instead of considering it to have been as stultifying and flawed as Wilhelmine Germany was in its last couple of decades. And they will not understand the Schadenfreude of so many other people in the world, since the idea of 'just desserts' disappeared from applying to anybody but the bad guys a long time ago, and since the American Way Of Life is only followed by good people, the confusion at why such bad things are happening exactly to those who followed it most blindly will be extreme (see point 1 - for example, when the American Navy shoots down an Iranian airliner, it is a tragic mistake which was really Iran's fault anyways, because they are bad). That just about sums up the American Way Of Life, though I am sure some people will have other ideas.I would also say the notion of the "Rugged Individualist" (thinkn the Marlboro man, cowboy on the frontier, etc.) is central to the "American Way of Life". It is an exhaulted and romanticised figure in American entertainment and history. Tangential to this is the belief that you personally can do anything you want in life (whether or not that is acatully true is a wider discussion). Furthermore, you shouldn't need anyone's help, indeed real winners don't need anyone's help. I remember be told growing up how every needed to be a "leader". Of course, everybody being a leader doesn't make much sense, but there you go.
This does perhaps foster a sense of isolation, but does fuel keeping-up-with-Joneses consumerism, being a rather indulgent sort of mindset.
All of this is of course a huge, sometimes unfair, generalization, but it is an undercurrent you feel.
Today in my stunningly powerful automobile sweeping along the beautifully banked, oh so perfectly banked country roads curving and swinging and sailing along fast, so fast moving with the road, the engine thrumming with the thrust of its powerful engine blasting my Sirius radio feeling invincible, pampered and powerful...
I can't help it. Its who I am. I like it. I am an American .
Amd I do so love speeding along our beautiful highways guzzling gas on such a lovely day.
And quite honestly, the cars here are better built, the roads are better maintained, and the drivers aren't as stupid.
But hey, gas in Germany is twice as expensive, so I guess America is still number 1, right?
I have driven the autobahn, would say stupidity of drivers about equal.
Realpolitik and Weltanschauung are German words, after all.
I will grant that human stupidity is pretty evenly distributed world wide, but will not grant that Germans are worse drivers in the eyes of someone who rides on two wheels.
Obviously it was a joke.
No one in his right mind believes
US lifestyle "not negotiable."
Lighten up man.
For us, this cancer began in a fabricated (illegal and illegitimate) 1886 court ruling in Santa Clara, that granted corporations the same rights as humans. Because corporations have far more wealth and resources than humans, and are not limited by the lifespan of humans, they now essentially enjoy rights far greater than that of people. Because these corporations work as tools of the very wealthy, then that transfers these "super -rights" to them.
This lead to the Robber Barons and the Gilded Age, and eventually to the Great Depression, where the New Deal knocked it into remission for a while. But it never went away, and all parts of the American life are now infected. And we are now enslaved again to the "Powers That Be". Serf's up!
NOT being racist, there's a real cultural thing - probably would have the same thing if say Russia were still united but had become capitalist and you had the wealthier of the Russians flocking over here to live the American Dream as all those 1950s/60s movies had taught them.
Has anybody else seen this? It was in The Hindu, the online edition of India's National Newspaper.
E. Asia must prepare for possible dollar collapse
Just curious -- would $3.50 gas be considered a "shock"?
There are a lot of people who are leveraged to the hilt and simply can't stand a say $500 increase in the costs of living without losing it all - foreclosure, bankruptcy, etc. In the early 80s I lived on less than $500 a month, and it's a lot of money to most people in the US.
And people are leveraged in ways you don't think of as leveraging - such as both spouses working, so you don't have Mom at home, and you have the added costs of child care. The book The Two-Income Trap covers this subject well. You have people living far away from work with no public transportation, so they have to drive. And there's a huge, huge, class consciousness in this country - not driving, not having a new, flashy, car, not striving for as high a class level as you can, can actually keep you out of jobs, promotions, etc. Yes in the US your kids can actually go hungry because you lost your job because you don't dress right and drive the right thing. So no one wants to be the first one to start biking to work, or to be seen at the bus stop if they can possibly avoid it.
Sounds like a formula for getting a boring uniform society with a lot of ulcer.
Could you not become the land of the free and behave as individuals instead? Making an ideal of fullfilling your own dreams and respecting that people have different dreams and ways to be happy? I have read some books about a very large country having such a spirit in fairly recent times...
I've read quite a few books about Edison, the guy's parents were what would now be called losers, moved from place to place, did eccentric stuff like build a TOWER on one corner of their land so once in a while they could charge 50 cents to someone who wanted to climb it. They could have a chunk of land and the freedom to do something like that though, back then, when now most people will never own any land, and they're even regulated as to what kind of chairs they can have on their tiny balcony, and they'll get evicted if they put a bicycle there.
The US once had half, a quarter, a tenth, the population it has now. People didn't live like they do now - if I fart my nextdoor neighbors know it, probably smell it. But once upon a time there was a much more decentralized, self-sufficient, make-your-own-hours society and that's where you had your eccentric geniuses, your tinkerers and so on. And live and let live was more of a living concept.
Obviously, you still don't understand. However, Orwell wrote a guide to many of the most modern aspects of the American Way Of Life. Before you commit a thoughtcrime again, maybe you should flip though it. Americans are famous for being helpful and friendly, so I am just doing my part, pardner.
Or maybe you could fly on one of those comfy jets to where the American Way Of Life is being rigorously defended, and they could help you understand its reality.
The thoughtcriminals, losers, the freaks and geeks are all part of the picture, too. Those above, describing the American Way of Life seem to jump to the Donna Reid/George Orwell aspect, Stepford Wives and Menacing Picket Fences..
Partly, they seem to be describing their image of the 'Other Guy', 'The common shmuck', and not the particulars that make their own life actually distinct from the TV-Boilerplate of today's American Gothic, which makes me think about how much of the pictures in our heads are even STILL helpfully manufactured for us, and that we often will even apply these cliche's to ourselves..
We are certainly ensnared in a net of consumerism, and we feed it and keep those tendrils strong, but then we wave that self-flagellating protestant guilt at it (or Catholic, Jewish, Muslim guilt, you pick).. and say it's just our own greed and gluttony and idiocy. But don't forget that like the 6 billion 'realities' mentioned earlier, there are such a vast range of realities in the US. There are people right here, reading this site that likely cover a very complex range of lifestyles, incomes, attitudes. (Certainly not a complete 'swath' of the US public.. I relish the idea that this is one of the few forums I can be in, where there are both liberals and conservatives involved, though the conservative-bashing is unhelpful, and frequently inaccurate, I think.)
I just think we do ourselves a disservice not to recognize that even with all the blinders on, there are a lot of smart people, concerned people, and motivated people (rich, poor, native and immigrant) who are just trying to find an edge to get a fingernail into, to start making changes they know need to happen. But they're generally overburdened with a workethic (middle/owning class) or 3 uniquely-American jobs that don't pay enough (poor/working class), so they're waiting for someone who has worked something out to help get it started. But this country is not Homogeneous, it's not boring.. (I could use a little 'boring' at this point.. don't think I've called my friends as much as my Senators, this year)
Sure, most people will not initiate these changes. You ever belong to a church or synagogue? You'd know that it's always about 10% of the people who do the work, the volunteering, take leadership positions, end up with 'committee-burnout'.. and try to figure out how to delegate the workload better. I don't see this as being any different. (10% would be pretty flush, actually, na ja?)
On earthday, I hiked a small mountain and talked-up some suburbanite familymembers about peak-oil and what we need to start planning/doing, and we sang some songs together after a big meal. Great Earth Day! Next weekend, I'm running a DIY workshop on Solar Heat and Electric & Refrigeration; Small Retrofits for Apartment-Dwellers, at a local community-center.
Bob - Tired Ten-percenter
Words are clumsy, and to say 'Americans' is already as incorrect as any aggregate when viewed at the level of the individual parts.
I don't care much about conservative or liberal, personally. (As a note from somone with an unhealthy attraction to politics as practiced in DC - the damage Bush has caused to an international system which America created to ensure it remained at the pinnacle is likely unimaginable from within the U.S.)
I wish you luck trying to change anything at all. It is far beyond my meager talents, skills, and insights to change even the slightest aspect of how people live in the U.S.
But at least I do have an answer for the love it or leave it crowd.
- Maybe.. 'Ich bin jetzt ein Berliner' ..?
RE: Changing things..
I'm scared shitless, but I'm not worried.. that make sense? If anything is going to work, it is going to be coming up with functional models that can be copied. Getting ideas out there (ie, next weeks DIY demos), and hope they catch. I'm one of thousands and thousands doing this stuff. If it happens, if people start doing it with us.. it'll likely be last-minute, some 11th hour, some a day late and a dollar short.. whatever, we'll do what we can, and try to enlist who we can along the way, selling it as cool gadgets, or 'saving the world', or save a few bucks on oil next winter.. like I said before, it's gonna be a few percentage who actually plant the mines and jump through the breaches. (I just wanna feel like John Wayne and not John Denver for a minute or two, is that so wrong?)
What else am I supposed to do? Worry about the yammerheads who disparage the very idea of working together to pull off something that seems impossible? Bah, they'll join like the good teammembers they are in their Imaginary Football Leagues, when the wind starts blowing for real..
Bob -
Almost Heaven, West Virginia, nope..
and not at the end of the world either, but you ken see it from theyah.. - Portland, Maine.
"It'll take all of us, and it'll take forever, but isn't that the point?" W'm McDonough
As far as "Utterly, Completely Dependent on fossil fuels.."
I would say instead.. 'mostly, frighteningly dependent'.. and save my absolutes for when I absolutely need them. There is a tendency here to make everything that ever touches or is moved by oil a complete thing of the past after the oil age. There is precious little time, but it's not likely to be just 'click' and the lights are out.
TV watching is profligate, who can argue with that? But that, too is a continuum. Many more parents are taking active control of viewing habits.. and they don't call 'em Soccer Mom's because of the World Cup. The kids ARE affected heavily, but aren't just drones, and as much as the 'Social Upheavals' of the 60's 70's seems to have been totally usurped by commercialism, sexism, materialism all over again, these are NOT the same kids as the ones in 1961, by a huge margin, like the parents.. many steps forward, and many back, but it's not the same as not having moved at all.
Consuming, however, it being a weekend, went on unimpeded.
But that said, that lifestyle isnt' the only one, or probably even the majority one. It's just the iconic one, the suburbs of ET, etc.
Sure, America is a place with much more variety than what is reflected through the media, but when you come down to it, America has been steadily becoming a monoculture, and those that don't fit into it are generally seen as parasites or pests, a threat to the American Way Of Life.
I think most Americans are not disturbed that New Orleans is gone, since it was one of the most glaring examples of living differently. SF, LA, and NYC are other cities which many Americans are likely to feel deserved the 'punishment' they receive.
It is certainly a further adaption of the suburban model that existed 30 years ago, but obviously it will evolve and adapt again.
But true, there weren't any Starbucks - we had Dunkin' Donuts, Arthur Treacher's Fish and Chips, Jack in the Box, Dairy Queen, Roy Rogers, Arbies, and McDonald's (I do believe that Ronald McDonald was first introduced in the Washington, DC area in the late 60s?)
We had Memco, not Target, and Crown Books, the first major discount book chain, is also a Washington original.
What I don't see is any real adapting - just changing brand names, and people sitting in cars longer than they did when I was 10.
It wasn't a sustainable model 30 years ago either. I stick by my opinion from then, and am still waiting for someone to point out the real infrastructure in America (excepting a few cities like NYC) which is not utterly reliant on motor vehicles burning liquid fossil fuels, from the birth of a child in a hospital that can only be reached by car to their burial in a cemetery, which can only be reached by car.
What is certainly truly different from 30 years ago is that the farmland near any urban area in America is now gone. I didn't actually see that coming in 1976, not really. Sprawl and vanishing forests/watersheds, sure, but not the utter elimination of farming.
One reason to read what is posted here - the thinking from 30 years ago provides an excellent base to deal with peak oil, but the implications and effects are now in much sharper focus.
Not many places were open on Sundays, either. Back then the American Dream meant getting a good night's sleep, worshipping on Sunday and spending time with family after worship. That was negotiable.
But in the west, stores were open Sundays as a matter of course. I was really shocked when I came east as a college student and discovered stores didn't keep the same hours on Sunday as they did Saturday.
So cars got bigger again. If you can afford to switch cars every few years that might even be considered a useful response to stimuli.
It is really surprising now to look back and see how low prices were as recently as the year 2000. No wonder I bought a car that got mpg in the 20s, and demanded premium fuel. And prices are higher, and I respond with a car that gets 50 mpg on regular.
The key here, and this is painful for anti-suburban people to acknowledge, is that many people made the correct plan for low fuel prices.
All that remains is to see how they respond when they figure out that they will have (at some point, maybe now) lasting high prices. I'm a moderate on this, as I am with the rest of it: I think people are not completely smart (or they'd be adapted already), but I don't think they are completely dumb either.
No one is going to sit at the gas station flipping the pump handle like a pigeon in a skinner's box, forever waiting for the gas to come out.
'The key here, and this is painful for anti-suburban people to acknowledge, is that many people made the correct plan for low fuel prices.'
This is maybe the crux - low fuel prices for a few years, or even a generation, were not a reason to create an entire non-sustainable infrastructure based on a finite resource which would inevitably start running out/increasing in price. Speaking broadly, no other society committed itself to such a short term perspective, and then assumed that the solution is buying another vehicle in 5 or 10 years.
America is a profoundly wasteful society, and in the end, the words I will put in your mouth are that Americans can simply throw away things like vehicles, housing, and farmland, and then make better choices to suit new conditions.
The new conditions are that the farmland is gone, as are the forests/watersheds, and that people seem to be so desperate to living in a debt/driving treadmill, they will do almost anything to keep going. Until they can't. Peak oil means can't, though we can certainly discuss when and how badly things become before can't is unavoidable.
To give you an idea of how hard it will be to change the U.S., look at how swimmingly the rebuilding of the Gulf Coast is going - now imagine that process on a continent wide scale. I don't see it, if only because the continent sized amount of oil availalble when building the current version won't be available for building the second version.
I'm a peak oil moderate. I expect adaption, but some economic pain and dislocation during that adaption. Obviously the folks who trade away their SUVs while they are still worth something will fare, on an individual basis, better than those that do not. People who are on a lease, and can cancel a lease for small money and downsize, are better off than people on a 7 year SUV loan. Etc.
On "throwing away" housing and farmland. I don't see how that is necessary.
On the gulf coast, if you really equate things that happen in a 24hr period with things that will unfold in a decade or two ... then sure, I guess.
Take a look at the long term plan for Miami, already local funding (50% under Bush, 20% under Clinton and those before). from a half cent sales tax.
Blue and bar green are open today, red under construction, yellow and green in design. Dark taupe are longer term, but thet tax will be kept in force till completed.
~90% of population within 3 miles of a station, 50+% within 2 miles, a good percent within a half mile.
Denver and Salt Lake City also have good system plans. SLC is planning a vote to triple taxes in order to speed construction of their system. Portland OR & St. Louis deserve kudos for future plans as well.
Bleak and dismal outlook for the US, but not totally without redemption. Urban rail was the #3 priority for rebuilding New Orleans, after rebuilding our wetlands and better levees.
But personally, I find the idea of within 3 miles to be almost absurd, if only as a measure of how spread out Americans live. A German city system would probably try to hit something like 95% within a 1/2 mile.
Perhaps USA have a future with ten times as manny Starbucks, Mc Donalds and so on staffed with people who know food preparation and customers mostly arriving via bicycle? The pay will be lousy but something to survive on, you get a lot of meeting points, much more efficient cooking and you do not have to change the cultural pattern, only the wehicle.
Do you know how these restaurants can afford to "supersize" everything (add an additional 16oz of drink and 25 more fries) for just an additional $1.50? Because it only costs them 4 cents, that's how. Woo hoo! Big bonus! Big service to society! "Supersizing" is just furthering the severe obesity problems in the country, and is likely a major cause of this health issue.
As for the "lousy pay" -- some restaurants have been shamed into paying a "living wage", but most still don't. A living wage is (very basically) defined as 3x the local cost of housing as set each year by the US Department of HUD (Fair Market Rents), in exchange for 40 hours work per week.
Many of these establishments intentionally increase their roster of part-time workers to avoid having to provide benefits such as medical insurance. This makes that employee dependent upon society for healthcare and the other services that are generally provided to the working poor at public expense. It's an enormous cost to society.
I think today calls for a regular coffee with milk in it and one of their egg salad sandwiches.
The place is a natural meeting place too, you get to meet people who live here locally. If I'm selling something on Craigs list or something, I often arrange to meet people there since it's easy to find.
They seem to offer their employees if not as much as they "should" in pay etc., at least more than any other shop around here - $10 an hour or so and health insurance, 401k, etc.
You can always go in and find a clean bathroom. I've seen ppl working at starbucks give a free coffee to the local homeless on a cold night. They give away coffee samples at day's end and give out used grounds for gardens. They have more fair trade coffee than I've seen anywhere else (in fact the only I've seen although I may find one type if I dig around, at just the right health food store).
They are expensive, but not much more so than places that are far inferior. They sell cheap junk cups etc from China, er, actually rather nice ones, but from China. The parent company is alleged to be Zionist which disturbs me quite a lot, but the whole neocon government, any business allowed to get large at all, etc. is Zionist because the US is a Zionist country, so the only way to protest THAT is to leave the US. Need a million bucks or transportable skills to do that and haven't got either yet.
I'd prefer a decent locally owned local coffee shop, but that's anti-American.
I'm a coffee snob, but I think Starbucks hits about 7/10 on my scale. Given a unknown town, and not knowing who treats coffee seriously, they are a safe bet. I also have a credit card that gives me my 1% each month as Starbucks money. I hit Starbucks rarely enough that I only spend my credit.
On the other hand, yes McDonalds is bad ;-)
Can anyone tell me, if I have debt in USD and am earning Yen, am I in a good relative position should the US take an economic hit in the next few years, or could Japan (and Asia by extension) get taken down with it?
The fact that Asia consumes so much less oil per capita than the US has to be good, but on the other hand the US buys so much stuff from Asia with its credit cards!
A couple of years ago I was earning USD and spending euros... tele-work, optimal at the time...
I wonder if I could convert my Euro-debt into USD?? Any practical hints?
an interesting take on the psychology of the US or perhaps pyscholgy in the US.
People who did not like "The power of nightmares" may not like this film.
Another film "The History of Oil" by comedian Robert Newman (http://www.energybulletin.net/15104.html)
was also an amusing take on the subject...
These warning signs from other countries should be taken seriously in my view. They are not part of the US financial sector "groupthink" and take an objective view of the current perilous situation regarding the current accounts deficit and the enormous trade deficits.
That's why news and analysis resources like the Asian Times and the The Hindu are invaluable to us.
I was talking at church yesterday to a friend who is in Exxon-Mobile middle management, in the area of long-term planning. He said that thier long-term price estimate for oil, for planning purposes, was $28 per barrel. I said, "That seems disconnected from reality. It's $75 a barrel now!" He agreed, but said Exxon is a very conservative company, and if they make a long term investment and the price drops, they would be left with a poor rate of return on their investment. They feel a lot of oil may come on line from West Africa, things may settle down in the Middle East, and China's economic growth may sputter. My friend agreed that it does seem disconnected from reality, though.
I thought it was interesting to know that $28 was their price, for planning purposes.
- I think $28 is at least up from the $20-25 I've heard previously.
- You don't eat your lunch, someone else will.
Meaning, a company with a higher estimate will be out there making commitments. Maybe it will be a Chinese company!
There are implications. More oil is likely to be left in the ground for future exploitation. Exxon-Mobil upstream profits should continue to baloon as the price of oil goes up. Economically recoverable reserves should increase with the oil price.
I do have some sympathy for their $28 position - it takes several years to bring a field into production and a major global recession could reduce demand sufficiently for the price to halve from current levels in that time. I would have thought a planning price of around $35 would be more reasonable now, even though I think $40 oil is extremely unlikely in future.
We need to remember that $40 was the price less than 18 months ago so if the $28 planning price was set then it seems reasonable. If the current price of $70+ holds for the rest of 2006 they might reset their planning price to around $40.
A 90% drop in the dollar would not, in itself, affect oil prices for the rest of the world (oil producers would probably switch to pricing in euros), except that prices would probably take a nosedive in anticipation of the demand destruction to come in the US?
Drivers switch to public transit
I have this distinct feeling that they still behave like a coherent country.
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060424/OPINION03/604240316/1110
Also, the project is open source and available from sourceforge. Details at http://projectcarpool.blogspot.com. I'd like to invite all of you to come and try it out. As the earliest adopters though, be prepared for a bit of slogging through the system. Coders amongst you are invited to pick up the source and contribute. Users, please please send feedback so we can improve the experience. Please register and setup some trips so that chance visitors get signs of life when they visit. I have some time at the moment to actually implement any suggestions you might have so look forward to hearing from you guys. Also, the site is currently only available to Firefox users (don't get me started....) IE users will have to wait either until I rewrite it for IE or until IE starts conforming to internet standards (don't hold your breath)
regards
Sid
A good example of that is Lyon's free public bicycle system... I should perhaps do a brief intro to that one of these days...
[Bug report from the carpool site coming up...]