“A third of humanity doesn't want to ride bikes anymore; that has profound geopolitical implications.”
—Anne Korin, the co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (May 1, 2005)
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Regarding Cheney, what is the lowest favoribility rating where when you shoot somebody, your poll numbers actually go up? I call this the redneck effect.
On another thing, concerning this "breech" versus "over-topping" problem with the New Orleans levees, everything I have ever seen regarding flooding is that when something over-tops it will soon breech due to the forces of the water. You see this all the time with roads, etc, getting washed out, when flood waters get too high.
Sorry, I have been listening to some wing-nut radio today.
I also think it's pretty clear this mess was Unavoidable (we be critters too ya know - with only a tiny layer of "self-awareness-greyishywhitematter" separating us from the next critter down on the self-conscious scale...why do we expect so much better behavior from Homo sap ? "Is this a Fair and Reasonable Expectation," asks The Mother as she reviews her copies of "The Naked Ape and Human Zoo")
I also think it is NO one's fault... this Wave was inevitable and is not attributable to any one person or nation etc etc... finger pointing in Past Waves seems mostly to confuse and then distract from solving the problem (e.g. N.O = Katrina ClusterCoitus type of responses).
Unfortunately (maybe... - after All "good" and "bad" in these situations are Defined by The Mothe of Nature and if not mistaken, I think She does the Sorting Out Of later too)...unfortunately it looks like Bush went for the Historical and Typical and Easy Way Out of SpyvsSpy, Military-Might-Makes-Right approach.
IMHO it appears that Bush et. al chose to SECURE Iraqi oil and keep it on the open mkt as opposed to Stealing it for America onyl (etc, etc, Maybe). Nice of the Euro's to trash us in public but Drink the Iraqi Black Blood we ensure makes it to the market just the same... )hippocritters just like us 'mericans afterall i guesses)...
The Jury on Bush II, the Nightmare Begins, is probably going to be out for a while until Further Reliable (i.e. Not from the tri-somic monochromatic media Hype-n-Type 4 Cash) Information/Data is made available in the future some day... (when we are looking Back at the Peak of Energy Dayze...).
It was a failure of leadership, with the fault resting on the shoulders of one man.
And people who do those things may beg to differ. Or might not bother because it is a childishly distrating subject.
And Exactly one (1) week later Someone ELSE will pick the wings of the same Butterfly and the Same Effect will be affected.
I think I bet.
Not a big revelation, but I thought quite obvious.
"
Or... a big SCAPEGOAT DISTRACTION for Homo Wimps who muble,[piss and moan when Some ONE ESLE failed to Notice They had Diaper Rash...
I mean really. "Mommy, why did you not notice when I slammed my finger in the door Four Years ago and take the Door off the Hinges or fix it better for me While I PARTIED like it was still 1999... the Year of the Cats-Who-Could-Create Matter and Energy even ...
PASS THE PAPER FIAT Mother... i hear they need it to dry their crocodilic, faux, terra fauna tears.
WHAT ??? oh, i wouldn't go that far The Mother... but then again, it is Your Universe and youse DOES make these laws don'tcha... as well as the Sentences of the Weak and REALITY TV Famous... take 'em out and sort 'em later Mother.
breech Audio pronunciation of "breech" ( P ) Pronunciation Key (brch)
n.
1. The lower rear portion of the human trunk; the buttocks.
2.
1. A breech presentation or delivery.
2. A fetus in breech presentation.
1. The lower rear portion of the human trunk; the buttocks.
2.
1. A breech presentation or delivery.
2. A fetus in breech presentation.
breach
1.
1. An opening, a tear, or a rupture.
2. A gap or rift, especially in or as if in a solid structure such as a dike or fortification.
2. A violation or infraction, as of a law, a legal obligation, or a promise.
3. A breaking up or disruption of friendly relations; an estrangement.
4. A leap of a whale from the water.
5. The breaking of waves or surf.
The major difference at the Lower Ninth Ward (where all the videos are usually shot) is that the wall was breached by a barge than ran along the wall as it went through it, knocking out and moving some 200 yards or more of wall, almost instantaneously. Thus, instead of just a slow rising water level, in that case there was a wall of water than entered the city. It removed all the dwellings for about four blocks carrying everything before it until it started to run out of power and dumped most of the debris (house bits, cars etc), which caused barriers that redirected some of the flow then laterally. This sudden failure and large damage zone was atypical of the city damage. On the other hand down the delta whenever the water overtopped the levees the damage was almost total as it was whipped up by the force of the hurricane.
The debris line was over a foot from the top. Terrible Corps of Engineers design did not sink pilings deep enough, water went underneath and bubbled up on the other side. Eventually this "tunneled" and undermined the levees there.
In Placquemines and St. Bernard, the Corps of Engineers built Mr GO (Mississippi River Gulf Outlet) was also a Gulf of Mexico Gulf Inlet and, after having destroyed the swamps around it with salt water intrusion, let in a wave of water that over topped the levees in that side.
Just got back from dinner @ GW Fins with two Corps of Engineers engineers. A good friend is a City of New Orleans Public Works engineer who got back in on Wednesday after Katrina and took photos before evidence was bulldozed.
Note, more than one breach on the 17th Street Canal (love the Quality control at the Corps of Engineers !), so there may be more than one mechanism for failure.
This is a typical overtopping scour (from the Industrial Canal). The width is about 3-4 ft and you can see the sheet piles exposed under the concrete wall. The sheet piles are then moved forward and tilt.
This was from down at Port Sulfur. Note that the water flow has gouged out down to bedrock in front of the sheet piles.
The concrete slabs on top are then thrown forward
We have many photos that show similarities across the floodwall failures around NOLA and the delta, but these I can use, since they are mine, the rest will only be available when the report is released.
eMail with directions (friend of mine with Public Works took them) Alan_Drake@Juno.com
I speculate that television may become largely broadcast-local again. In a slow squeeze, or worse, I can't imagine most people paying $30 to $80 a month for cable TV.
ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION
Division of Spill Prevention and Response
Prevention and Emergency Response Program
SITUATION REPORT
Peakoil.com
The TAPline has hundreds of valves between a section of the pipeline and disaster. It's bigger, but not as dangerous.
A lot of people think, more valves on a pipeline are better, but actually this is true only up to a certain number. The probability of having a given leakage volume increases with the number of valves and their associated joints, weight, supports, flanges and stem packings, lubrication ports, etc. increases such that the benefit actually become less. This is balanced against the probability of losing the same amount of oil from a pipeline segment between any two given valves a given distance apart. Thus the overall probability of having any leak is minimized.
I looked at all the reports and there is no mention of 4 of 5 valves that had failed. Actually they still don't say anything about a reason for the leak yet. Pictures don't show any valves in the area. So, maybe it will be corrosion or a weld crack.
Really the greatest risk for uncontrolled HC releases and fire is actually when drilling. Afterwards, the process equipment areas become the most critical areas. Note, there was no fire in this location.
The TAPS system also has an advanced SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) system, as do most pipelines today. The SCADA systems have a subroutine that automatically detects leaks. Pipeline flows and pressures all along the pipeline are read every 5 seconds and compared to theoretical hydraulic flow and pressure calculations. If there is any significant differences between actual readings and calculated results that indicate a leak has occured, an alarm is triggered and the operators shut down the pipeline. The SCADA system will indicate the size and the approximate location of the leak. The emergency spill response plan is then put into action and appropriate equipment and personnel are sent to investigate and control the situation.
After three days, the latest news is that they have finally identified the source of the leek.
The reason I think this is relevant for more than just people living in the U.K. is that there are possible lessons to learn for other countries entering peak oil and maybe patterns will emerge that are interesting to observe with international implications.
For example the U.K.'s political and strategic relations with Russia who are going to be providing lots of gas. Then there's the whole question of nuclear. It appears that Tony Blair, having prayed to his God for inspiration, is going to say yes to a massive increase in nuclear power. Or as they like to call it, the new generation of nuclear power stations.
I remember well over twenty-five years ago whilst at university stating that I thought the oil revenues should be used primarally for three things. Investment in a new transport infrastructure based on a modernised railway system. The modernization of healthcare provision. And finally a radically better education system, so we'd have something to live on when the oil ran out. The development of new industries to replace the old. Instead the money was wasted on tax cuts for the well-off, a massive consumer boom based on cheap energy, and among other things the distruction of the domestic coal industry.
Britain managed it's oil wealth not that differently from some developing nations. That is not really investing in the future, but consuming in the now.
It was strange because the oil was such a gift from posterity, almost a lifeline and the money could have been used so much better. Britain reminded me at the time of an aging courtesan who is suddenly left a small fortune by an admirer. What does she do with the money? Instead of buying a hotel or farm in the country, she opts for a huge party for all her friends and a lot of cosmetic plastic surgury! When the money's gone, she's older and still she end's up on the street corner.
As Matt Simmons noted, the top 10 major oil companies working the North Sea--using the best data and engineers in the world--were predicting that the North Sea would not peak until 2010. Keep this in mind when people talk about tremendous remaining reserves in Russia and when ExxonMobil talks about trillions of barrels of remaining reserves. The industry couldn't get it right in a very compact region like the North Sea, but the simple HL method got it right.
In round numbers (based on HL), I think that Saudi Arabia is about 55% depleted, Russia around 88% (at least existing fields), Norway 65% and Iran, 50%. Khebab and I are working on an article on this.
Even the Liberal Democrats, the party that claims to be most environmentally orientated is not sounding the alarm. Thier economic spokesman Vince Cable (an ex Shell economist) has been handing out the usual economists line of how higher prices will soon produce more oil.
Why the Celts? The Celtic league was adopted by the Romans as the leuga and became a common unit of measurement throughout western Europe. It represented the distance a person could walk in an hour (or today, drive in 1.5 minutes at 60 mph). The Celtic unit was about 1.5 Roman miles, which is roughly 1.4 statute miles or 2275 meters. The unit did not remain constant and grew longer over time. In many cases it was equal to 3 miles. That was for land measurements. At sea, the league was most often equal to 3 nautical miles (1/20 degree, 3.45 statute miles, or exactly 5556 meters). Many occurrences of the "league" in English-language works are actually references to the Spanish league (the legua), the Portuguese league (legoa) or the French league (lieue). In the U.S. and Britain, standard practice of modern times is to define the league to be 3 statute miles (4828.03 meters) on land or 3 nautical miles at sea. So you can see the Celtic league has a pretty confusing history.
To complicate matters (as if its not already), the Spanish traditional legua was equal to 5000 varas, which is close to 2.6 miles or 4.2 kilometers. Using the Texas definition of the vara = 33.33", the legua is 2.6305 miles, 13889 feet, or 4233.4 meters. (Even the vera is different between California, Texas, & South American countries) Using the original Spanish definition, the league would be 2.597 miles, 13712 feet, or 4179.4 meters. This unit was abolished by Philip II in 1568, but it remained in rather widespread use, especially in the Americas. During the late 18th and early 19th centuries, a league of 8000 varas (4.15 miles or 6680 meters) was legal inside Spain, but at sea, Spanish sailors used the usual marine league (3 nautical miles or 5556 meters) or Philip V's "geographical" league of 1/17.5 degree (3.429 nautical miles or 6350.5 meters). At present, the legua is used informally in Argentina and in other Spanish-speaking countries as a metric unit equal to exactly 5 kilometers (3.107 miles).
The Submerged Lands Act (SLA) of 1953 grants the States rights to the natural resources of the submerged lands from the coastline to no more than 3 nautical miles (5.6 km) into the Atlantic, Pacific, the Arctic Oceans, and the Gulf of Mexico except the coastal waters of Texas and western Florida, where State jurisdiction extends from the coastline to no more than 3 marine leagues (16.2 km, apx 10 miles) into the Gulf of Mexico. The SLA also reaffirmed the Federal claim to the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), which consists of those submerged lands seaward of State jurisdiction.
The SLA led to the passage of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act in 1954 (OCSLA). The OCSLA and subsequent amendments in 1978 and 1985 provide for Federal jurisdiction over the submerged lands of the OCS. Additionally, it authorizes the Secretary of the Interior to lease those lands for mineral development. Note that the legal OCS includes submerged lands that are not part of the geological OCS.
On March 10, 1983, U.S. President Ronald Reagan signed Proclamation 5030 (3 CFR 22), which set up the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The EEZ consists of those areas adjoining the territorial sea of the United States, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and U.S. overseas territories and possessions. The EEZ extends up to 370 km (200 nmi) from the coastline.
Thank goodness for GPS. The only problem with GPS is that its so accurate, we can see the difference between points located on different continental plates only after a few years. Now we need a dynamic world atlas.
Nine years of New Labour lies and blather have destroyed any interest in politics. People just want to get on with redecorating their houses - refinancing their debt on the back of their their house price appreciation, and watching the footy on Sky. British politics has collapsed into the soggy centre of ideology free mediocrity. Its all very boring. Nobody gives a toss about mainstream politics these days. Rising energy prices have not hit home in a big enough way to distract from Man U and Arsenal - yet...
"Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which. "
Sorry, I don't speak or understand Brit. Is "footy" football as in soccer for us Yanks? Is Sky some sort of satellite TV?
I suspect that as Britain goes, so too will the USA eventually. The one delay factor we have in the USA is so much more land and a still untapped reservoir of coal. And of course, our population is not distracted by footy because we have much better things to do, like WFW and Oscar Night Awards. (WFW= World Federation of Wrestling =a scripted violence show).
As an aside, does anyone think that Clooney winning an Oscar (a false golden idol) for the "Syriana" movie will bring public attention momentarily to the Oil Question?
The Scientific American refuted an NY Times editorial refuting the peak:
http://blog.sciam.com/index.php?title=facing_the_facts_on_oil&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1
World Oil, one of the two major trade journals for the petroleum industry, warns in its 2006 Outlook that despite double-digit increases in exploration investments in recent years:
The author, an energy industry consultant, goes on to predict that 2006 "will be the year when the Peak Oil topic intensifies into a debate on the scale of climate change/global warming."
Ut-oh, when they start talking about it, I don't know. If they haven't been talking about it for fear of spooking people, what if a lot of people get spooked? Global warming is kind of talked about more often I've noticed, but not that often.
16 days until the bourse. There was a news story I say about China changing a huge chunk of its dollar reserves.
Like from $800 billion to $300 billion I think. I can't find the original article where I found it.
I also saw a nes story on Yahoo about how Americans have negative savings all together.
and 2 days till the iaea start to do anything on the report that it was refered too, if i remember correctly.
"The US Department of Energy (DOE) released reports projecting that state-of-the-art enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques could significantly increase recoverable oil resources of the United States by a factor of four or more."
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/03/doe_new_co2_enh.html
I'm sure the oil tech heads here can parse it a bit better than I.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/3/184126/9260
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/3/184126/9260#58
(click on the date of a comment to find it's unique URL).
That last figure is roughly in line with Stuart's estimate based on Hubbert linearization of 27 +- 8 GB remaining.
These projections are truly spectacular! They are talking about increasing estimates of recoverable oil by over an order of magnitude based on these new technologies. To put it in perspective, look at the contribution expected from tar sands: 10 billion barrels. That would normally seem like a lot, but it is insignificant next to the other contributions, which are in the hundreds of billions of barrels.
Who knows whether these technologies will work out as hoped, but I feel that this clearly shows the limits of extrapolation and curve-fitting techniques such as Hubbert linearization. Stuart fits a curve and gets that there are 27 GB left. Then here comes some new technologies that can supposedly recover 400 GB. What does the Hubbert curve say to that?
Is it telling us that these new technologies won't work? How could the curve know? That curve pretty much had its shape fixed by the time of the 1980s. How could anyone know, back in 1980, whether new EOR techniques and other technologies could greatly increase oil recovery? When engineers go to apply these techniques to oil fields, is the ghost of King Hubbert going to appear and make them stop?
The point is, if you pit human ingenuity and creativity against extrapolations from the past, my bet will be on the humans. These curves have no power to compel future generations to accept their limits. It seems absurd to claim that a curve whose shape was fixed in 1985 can somehow constrain the entire future of human creativity and productivity to never be able to recover more oil than was predicted at that time. The future is just not that predictable.
I'll keep an open mind and wait and see, but not hold my breath. It might be that these resources/technologies are what keep us in plastics for the next 150 yrs, but don't provide the volume production we are used to.
- Lots of very interesting new technology has been developed and applied in the US in the last 30 years. It has not made a dramatic difference to the shape of the linearization curve so far.
- CO2 injection is not a new technique. The location of major oil fields in the US have been known for a long time. As for undiscovered oil, with the exception of some not-that-prospective places of scenic interest, the government's been keen to have the industry look for more oil. There are a number of large oil companies failing to replace their reserves, unable to increase production and losing market share, and lots of small companies eager to make it big. So if there's so much oil, why aren't they all exploiting it to increase production?
So, should we believe that the domestic industry is incompetent and is thus suffering from three decades of falling production even though only 1/3 of the eventual oil has been produced? Or is it easier to believe that some government contractor paid by a Republican DOE maybe exaggerated the potential a wee bit here?So where is that oil? Well, I guess if we knew that, it wouldn't be undiscovered, would it? But they probably have some ideas where to look. Maybe someone will read the reports and find out.
My guess is that the oil is in places where for political reason we are not allowing oil development and exploration now, environmentally sensitive regions like the California and Florida coastlines, national forests, Alaska of course, etc. Maybe we need to put a giant oil derrick on top of Old Faithful and fill Yosemite valley with oil pumps. There was a ruckus locally when they proposed to start oil exploration in the National Forest region nearby.
It's conceivable that there is a lot of undiscovered oil in these regions. Whether we are ever going to drill it is another question.
"They" is an unreferred pronoun.
Suppose "they" refer to geologists. I know what the geologists are saying: The rest of the oil out there is going to be a helluva lot more expensive to develop than the easy oil we have already pumped.
Rather than focus on the ultimate amounts recoverable with current technology, let's look at cost per barrel. There may be a huge amount of oil out there (deep under water, in tiny pockets, in hard bitumen, in shale and tar sands, etc.) but if it costs $500 per barrel it is useless. If it costs $400 per barrel it is useless. If it costs $300 it is useless, at least for the next twenty years. Once we get down to say, $200 per barrel, triple current price, then how much oil is out there? I think that is the question, and given current technology I think Matt Simmons has nailed it.
- At one time all you had to do was puncture the top-soil and the stuff would come spurting out.
- Now you have to scrape the entire surface of eastern Montana, expending a huge amount of energy in the process.
- A single hydrogen atom contains a proportionally high amount of potentially releaseable energy.
If you really think about it, we have a huge amount of energy available, but one's attitude depends on the decision to live in a reality-based society or not.27 Gb versus 400 Gb? This is crazy. The US is a mature oil province, the most explored, developed (including EOR) and analyzed province in the world.
It is naive to think that pronouncements like the have any basis in reality. This statement from the DOE link
They did a bogus extrapolation based on 6 areas where CO2 injection might increase recoverable reserves. And then, using some voodoo I can't describe at present until I look further, they did some more extrapolations (without taking into economics of recovery) and made a "potential" estimate of recoverable reserves. I'll take a look again but on the face of it, this is total bullshit.I expect a bit more critical analysis in the stuff you post, Halfin, since you are a resident and respected "skeptic" here at TOD.
While the numbers are probably pie in the sky, they probably are correct that there is a lot of oil which can be recovered through additional effort.
The part that goes off the deep end is the table on page A-4 of the report, where they predict that these efforts could yield an additional 17.2 mbd of production by 2030. Indentifying, expensive, technically complex options for increasing oil yield is one thing, stating that these options could be implemented to such a level as to provide oil at three times our current production rate is absolutely insane.
I would probably agree more with this report if they estimated that these techniques could provide another 2-4 mbd by 2030. Of course, then the report would do nothing to counter the issue of PO, which is the real purpose of the report.
Same thing with CO2 injection for EOR - people are looking at the size of the asset without considering taking away from our energy bank account in order to access it.
Kind of like saying there is enough heat at the earths core to heat every house on the planet for 5000 years. OK lets do it.
As Peak Oil becomes more mainstream, peoples genetic penchant (and cultural for that matter) for optimism will increasingly show up in sexy, almost real sounding alternatives that wont pass muster when applied to the critical alt supply framework:
1)EROI
2) Environmental externalities
3)Scalability
4)timing
Looking at some of the other comments, they emphasize that these enhanced recovery techniques may be very expensive. The report mentions that as well and even talks about subsidizing the oil companies (poor starving little things!). This is an example, then, of the much-derided belief of economists that increased prices will increase supply.
Some geologists argue that this view is ludicrous, because you can't create more oil than is in the ground, no matter the price. This report reminds us that there is enormously more oil in the ground than we can actually produce today, and that if we are willing to pay more (possibly much more), we should be able to extract more oil. This is the sense that economists mean it when they say that increasing price increases supply. It's not that more oil is being created, it's that previously uneconomical recovery techniques can now be used to profitably extract existing oil.
Again, I don't know if the particular techniques evaluated by these reports will turn out to be practical or not. Sounds like they will probably work better in some fields than others. But the point remains that increasing price and improving technology both give us grounds to increase our estimates of recoverable oil, possibly substantially above estimates from the Hubbert curve.
What one should do is break out this EOR oil according to market price necessary to make various quantities of it available for an economically viable recovery, and gauge the various prices against expected effects that any given price for oil would have on the economy. This would be a meaningful method of "evaluating" EOR oil. Could it not be possible that only, say 1/2, of this total EOR oil reserve is possible to produce "economically"?
In one population do NOT DISTRACT them with that $$%(&*#&^$&^ Global Warming Crap.
See if they can pay attention to the more immediate problem at hand, namely Feeding and Heating and Cooling our selves in the HERE and NOW.
As opposed to worring the Septic Tank-O-Wasted CO2 Molecules overflowing when the Fridge is empty and the Furnace and A/C are out.
Ask ANY 3rd Worlder how many Sticks He Burned today to cook and heat himself... AND if he gives a Cold Day in Hades about how many CO2 molecules he released.
Luxuries like Morals, Laws, Ethics and even Religions go Out of the Mind of the Irrational under Extreme Streeses they never imagined would REALLY happen to them.
What little I do know is that the long-range power generation problems are at least as acute in California and Northeastern North America with the exception of Quebec. Rates here in Maine are the highest in the U.S.
A - Continue to give to current organizations and restrict my donation to "Improving energy efficiency". That means they will have to earmark my donation to some type of energy efficiency technique.
B - Finding some new worthy organizations that will be working toward PO Awareness or solutions. Post Carbon Institute comes to mind, any other ideas?
I think the recipients (based on personal experience so far) will find these pretty posters useful for "finger painting day" with their children if nothing else.
I found the poster extremely educational and informative and all requested local "officials" I requested be sent copies apparently received the posters in a very timely manner (and promptly became confused and angry... like typical Homo da Saps who fear their non-negotiable PartyUP life style might be threatened by "facts," - remember those "stupid things?"
I sent in all of the names and addresses myself and they used them. I sent to the mayor, area high school science or ag teachers, Local Agriculture Groups, Local Chamber of Commerce head, Local Physical Plant Central Committee Member for area school system (buys all heat utilities etc), a couple bright(er) area business leaders, the city library, Social Services Free-Psych clinician (Pre/post Tramatic Stress Syndrome will be Culled from our population ... or not... ??? "Depends," says Mother Nature (there she sits there doing her Nail Claws now...)
He coined the term EROI 25 years ago with his research on fish, then with Cutler Cleveland wrote many papers and an 'energy bible' on the subject - most of this stuff is old and is desperately in need of updating.
Before we plunge pell mell into the unknown of various alternative fuels, it will be critical to have an impartial systems umbrella that can sythesize the various assets and liabilities of the global energy balance sheets.
AND... and which is the Only place on this blue-green Orb that offers Certification for Site Assessing for Sloar PV and HW as well as Wind Turbine installation...
As of FEB, 2006 their enrollment for their Workshops and Certification Classes is up sumthin' like 400% over LAST year ... busy, busy, busy doing The Mother's Work...
Some of them ex-Hippies consult with other states, foreign countries and with companies big and small.
The Midwest Renewable Energy Association.
(world's Bestest Annual RENewable Energy Fair)
www.the-mrea.org
I have noticed that the pirces of recycled metals have gone up. I collected 24 pounds of crushed cans over the last 3 weeks.
I am moving from Huntsville Alabama to Atwood Colorado but the end of May 2006 hopefuly the gas prices are not too high, But I will be on a one-way ticket via my Chevy Ventura Mini-van. Finally a small town and a small home.
My girl friend is trying to buy a small house on a double lot and I will grow the gardens and do the home prep for winter and the rest of the year, and go into more full time writting, I just hope the shit stays away from the fan long enough so I can get out there on $3.00 gas. Which is what I am saving for.
God Bless you all and the coming storms, both the wet kind and the oil kind.
Charles
I personally think you just might be OK in that time frame. Wish I had the nerve to face the unknown instead of sitting and waiting to be "positioned" well enough (whatever that means besides terminal procrastination) to get the hell out of San Diego.
Don't know where Atwood is, even though I was raised in CO and have all my family there, but just a hint...ENSURE YOUR WATER SUPPLY.
It's said that exploration in Saudi Arabia was severely curtailed during the 1990s oil glut/$10 bbl period. We've also heard from Al-Naimi that the Saudis are to add 200 billion bbl to reserves "soon".
Is it realistic that significant new reserves in Saudi Arabia can be found by ramping up exploration there?
I also worry that people will tune out entirely if they are offered nothing but the prospect of dying cold and alone. Surely throwing up one's hands and reciting the standard "You live in the suburbs? Buddy, you're screwed. Don't even bother with the efficient lightbulbs, just prepare for the culling!" is not the best way to get the middle class on side.
With that in mind, I found these two pieces interesting, since they provide concrete examples of what "ordinary people" can do to reduce reliance on fossil fuels:
This broadcast from the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio National is about Linda and Trevor Cockburn, a couple who wanted to see if they could go six months without spending a dollar on food, power, water or transport in Queensland. They grew their own veggies on their 2180 square metre suburban block and bartered their homemade goat's cheese for staples such as rice, flour and sugar. Also see an earlier interview here and here for their own site.
This article by Australian permaculture guru David Holmgren discusses how he believes the suburbs could be retrofitted for sustainability. As he points out in this interview, there is room for an incremental, adaptive strategy in the suburbs, since people can "just start changing houses and doing things - give or take planning regulations -without the whole of society agreeing on some plan".
I am (trying desperately and very unsuccessfuly to) work QUIETly with some very dense local Central Commitees and want all the Angles I can get to convince them there are in fact BABY STEPS that can be taken - a sort of Plan Z, if you will.
Thank you for your consideration,
And don't allow vehicles over 6500 lbs GVW to be driven except on truck routes, or parked except in loading zones. That'll get rid of the huge Durangos and Hummers.
BUT I have been picking at this scab a-longtime along this vein and don't think that's gonna cut it alone.
WE need sumthing for the Emergency situations.
One suggestionquestion... - I wonder about Crisis Mgmt on the local level (considering the N.O. Local's as the biggest Failures in Katrina- NO mess)...and I wonder does the school system have any kind of reserve or storage system for themselves or is it at the mercy of the local suppliers storage systems? I wonder about that for the local Emergency Systems too.. ambulance, fire, police.
These systems are critical for Community Confidence in ANY crisis - just a cursory glance at even Real-Time events around the world recently suggests In Most Cases the Systems in place by local authorities have not been very effective (at least not early in the crisis).
I be just wantin' to have confidence We in My Home Townz are not going to Ever behave like Them ... just about Any "them" I see in the news lately I guess... like maybe
... like N.O. .... they had a Level III Hurricane DRILL with their Dykes and Levies about four years before Katrina.... who fell asleep after That Media-recorded-but-forgot-and-blamed-Bush-for-later Event... and only woke up to try to Blame the Federal gubermint for some Local problem.... pathetic.
My guess is that there are Maybe 12 Communities of my HomeTownz Size and Complexity in the USA that are aware of and actually prepared for this Energy Crisis and Monetary System-Realignment.
Maybe a dozen might seem generous to you, or not, I have no idea.
...Zap-Gap-Out...: For a Good Time Call:
www.the-mrea.org (no, not underscore, dash)
http://www.energycodes.gov/implement/state_codes/index.stm
First of all, Energy Minister in Russia is the main lobbyist of oil and gas industries. Don't take him too seriously. His goal is to win tax preferences for oil companies and maybe to provoke the further rise in oil price.
Secondly, production costs in Russia are climbing fast in US dollars terms because of huge internal dollar inflation. In 2000 Russia's GDP was around 200 billion dollars, in 2005 it was 765 billion and in 2006 it will be around 1 trillion US dollars (based on projections by financial ministry). Fivefold increase in 6 years. Of course real GDP rise was not so fast.
Russian ruble could be devalued if Kremlin sniffs a threat to its incomes.
And maybe another point. There is wide-spread criticism in english language press of Russia's place in so-called G8 because of small GDP and autocratic tendencies. I think Kremlin has decided to eliminate one of these failings and to achieve formal eighth place by the size of GDP before the next presidential elections in 2008 even by the price of diminished competitiveness of national companies.
Andrei, back in Moscow now.
And almost all Texas oilmen in 1972 said Hubbert was crazy. Texas peaked in 1972 at 54% of Qt.
And the top 10 majors working the North Sea confidently predicted--using the best data and the best engineers available--that North Sea Production would not peak until 2010. The North Sea peaked in 1999 at 52% of Qt.
Notice a trend here?
So, this time conventional wisdom is right, and Russia is magically exempt from the simple Hubbert Linearization (HL) analysis? I don't buy it. Sure, the frontier areas may have some unexploited reserves. But every HL model we have says that existing Russian production is poised for a dramatic collapse in production. But I forgot, THIS TIME, conventional wisdom is correct. It's just been almost always wrong in the past.
One little point. Post-1984 cumulative Russian oil production is still BELOW what the HL model--using only 1984 and earlier data to predict future production--predicts that it should be. And as Russia gets closer to catching up to where the model says it should be, production growth has been slowing dramatically.
But I forgot. THIS TIME conventional wisdom is right.
Hirsch found that even with the best information in the world, the peak is sharp and sudden, and you don't see it coming. Millions of dollars' worth of natural gas plants had to be cancelled when the industry realized they could not be supplied. So it wouldn't surprise me if Russia started building a pipeline even if they're at peak now.
Either way I'll win :)
Andrei, Moscow.
New under construction or will happen
North European Gas Pipeline
Baltic Pipeline System
Sachalin Pipeline (oil is presently ferried in)
Wanted
Druzhba Northern Branch upgrade
Suknodolnaya-Rodionovka (Ukraine Bypass)
Export Pipeline Surgut to Murmansk
Export Pipeline Usinsk to Murmansk
Inkutsk to Bejing
Skavoradino to Bejing
Gas Kazachinskoye to Bejing-Seoul
Yamal Gas Line to China
Yamal Gas Line to Europe
Barents sea Gas Line
Shtokman Gas Line
Shtokman LNG (US and China Markets)
Ukraine-Russia-Germany Gas Transport Consortium
Nabucco Pipeine
Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Turkey-Europe
Turkmenistan-Iran-Afganistan-India
I think that Iran would deep freeze its nuclear development program if the Turkmenistan-Iran-Afganistan-India pipeline was given financing instead.
Are you really serious about this, or was this an "off the cuff" statement intended to incite belly laughs?
Pipsqueek's nuclear deal with the NON-NPT signer (India) has royally POed both Pakistan and Iran and was a direct countermove against the Taj-India pipeline, which India wants very badly. It is believed that the nuclear deal was set up last year so India would agree to vote against Iran, if there was a move to take Iran to the Security Council, rather than vote no and try to get this pipeline built. It is not as simplistic as it may appear to be on the surface. Why else would Pipsqueek think he could get away with offering a NON NPT signer such a deal??? Not really within the NPT theme of play, don't you think?
"Serious, but laugh if you think its funny"
Yes, this is serious, and yes, I do laugh because I think it is very, very funny. Not a tear to be shed for homo Sap at This Time and This Place Now that is NOT different this timezUp afterall.
I love how deep you delve here into the Minds of Giants playing on This Board now. Seriously, my brother-in-law and I were sort of "pretending" to play Risk using the most realistic, objectiveness we could muster (quite a bit really when you step back and don't chose any sides... like The Mother Never choses sides until the Bloodzz comes up whin She Sticks it with a fork.
Look the Nukes-Or-Nuthin' approach is how I read Iran and it's Godz Hearing Learned-Leaders .. you know, the Ones on a Crusade to Wipe the InfidelicHebrewState from the Orb?
Scientific brain linked to autism
30 Jan 06 | Health
Einstein and Newton 'had autism'
30 Apr 03 | Health
sometimes people listen better too than other times.
http://www.gazprom.ru/eng/
http://www.negp.info/
http://www.oilonline.com/oilcapital/neft_1_0405.asp
http://www.gazexport.ru/?pkey1=000040000400001
I don't really want to go around and around with you on this particular subject again, westexas, but it is not the case that production growth has been slowing dramatically. At least, not yet. I'm looking for declines in the 2008 to 2010 period (more likely the latter date) and so are most other analysts. This has a lot to do with internal finance & politics and harder to produce unexploited oil basins with accompanying lack of infrastructure to move the oil. Recoverable reserves are uncertain and expected daily production in the next 5 years or so is uncertain too.
Time will tell. If they collapse, you're right and I'm wrong. Betting everything on the Hubbert Linearization is kind of putting all your eggs in one basket as far as this issue goes. Khebab, who has done the curve fitting, sees a double peak that shows there may be more future production out of Russia than you are willing to admit. Won't you at least acknowledge that there are major uncertainties in the situation in Russia going forward? Just as with Stuart's "Cigar" posts on world production, we are put in a "wait & see" position regarding Russia.
best, Dave
In regard to the "noisy" HL Russian plot, that is why I asked Khebab to focus just on the 1984 and earlier production data to predict post-1984 Russian production. Russia, like Iran, has production problems that were related to political problems.
Using just 1984 and earlier data to predict post-1984 production, the cumulative post-1984 Russian production was quite close to the HL prediction, but still below where it should be.
If memory serves, the recent year over year increases in production were something like 11%, 9% and then 2.7% last year, which sure looks like slowing to me as Russia gets closer to where the cumulative production should be. Which is why I thought the warnings by the Russian energy minister of the possibility of a "real collapse in oil production" were so interesting.
IMHO we need a more regular checkup with reality here at TOD, and I think that the underestimated Russian potential is a nice wakeup call, especially for the doomsday peakoilers.
Поживем, увидем
(we'll live and see)
Dr. Robert L. Hirsch joins ASPO-USA advisory board.
ASPO USA Monday, February 27, 2006
ASPO-USA is pleased to announce that Dr. Robert L. Hirsch, principal author of the DOE funded SAIC report "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management", has joined the board of advisors. Dr. Hirsch will work with Matthew R. Simmons, Dr. Albert Bartlett and other prominent board members to advise ASPO-USA on important matters in the future.
http://www.aspo-usa.com/news.cfm?nd=1466
I just finished reading Deffeyes book where he explains that for oil to be created, the organic material must have gone through the "oil window", which is a certain depth range inside Earth's crust. He also claims that you're not going to find much oil below the ocean floor, which puts 60% of Earth off limits for finding oil. It wasn't clear why this was the case. Is it because the crust isn't thick enough there?? Yet, a large fraction of the new found in the last few years has been in "deep water". Can anybody explain this apparent paradox.
Thanks
My hunch about the "deep water" part is that it's relative--what you and I would call "deep water" is a pittance in comparison to the depths of the main part of the oceans. I'm guessing that, in a global view, "deep water" is really more like "just slightly farther offshore".
And right at the surface, if you had hydrocarbons there millions of years ago, they would have leaked out -- when that happens you get a tar pit for a while but that's a temporary phenomenon in geologic time as the leakage oxidizes / evaporates away. So there's this range of depths at which liquid hydrocabons can exist.
Seismic data shows that the sea floor is relatively thin compared to continental crust. Although I'm not a scientist (but play one on usenet), I'd say there isn't any "oil window" on the abyssal plains. You've got seafloor being created along these cracks running around the earth and there isn't much sediment on it, as the seafloor is mostly geologically recent solidified magma.
On the other hand, oil is apparently still being created in the Gulf Of Mexico where the Mississippi delta piles up mud and organic goo ... all that dead biological stuff and sewage eventually gets rotted and squished and cooked to the right temperature and if there's a layer of rock salt or something to trap it, you have oil and gas.
Note: the GOM is not "deep water". Most of it is on the continental shelf, essentially a continuation of North America but under water.
BUT the Markets do Anticipate Production Peaking for Gold (but not for silver, copper and aluminum) ???
Based this on analysis (see Methods ref. below) of the Slope for the Graph of the December Futures Delivery Contracts plotted over time (up to 2112 for oil ... see INO.com for raw publicl, free raw data)).
Only Gold slope is positive, the others are flat or negative. So, The Market Appears to foresee declining gold availability and is willing to pay a higher price on further-out Forward Contracts.
Any comments would be appreciated (except those by passing economist-creationist wishing to entertain Science On Trial II: This Time It Counts 4 REAL (Matter and Energy Kin NOT be created by the godz of Technology, Politics, Markets, Science and Technology and even Zues)
Peak Oil and the NYMEX Futures Market: Do Investors Believe in Physical Realities? - Pedro Almeida
http://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abstracts.php
Complacency Claims more lives than ALL other mechanimsm of Death combined.
Natural gas markets expect LNG to come online by 2009-2010 which is why the negative slope there.
Crude has had a downward sloping futures curve but back dated contracts (I think you meant 2012, not 2112) are now at all time highs. Gold is still way below its all time highs.
Also, you cant make fertilizer or jet fuel out of gold, though you can barter with it - if the planet had to devote resources towards producing oil or mining gold, more 'work' could be created from the oil, which is the route they'd go.
A wedding ring for a chicken anyone?
Also, consider looking now for a leading bankruptcy attorney. Speculation is a fool's game.
Read the classic, "Where are the Customers' Yachts?"
Also read Paul Erdmann's "The Silver Bears."
You want to make money in speculation? You be the broker. In any kind of casino, only the house wins. That is a DUET. (Deep Universal Eternal Truth)
On the other hand, if you were as smart as John Maynard Keynes or Bernard Baruch, you would not be asking questions about finding brokers.
Some Risks are not as great as gamble as others.
There is absolutely NO comparison between astrology and the markets etc.
As an astrologer you can make a good living.
As a speculator, maybe a few months down the road I'll be buying newspapers from you that you try to peddle to motorists stopped at lights.
Whom the gods wish to destroy, first they drive them mad.
I be just doobin fineba dareba... but thank you foryour concerned.
Former, selfully and happily4ever
"professor" franken...stein to my former wife and friends and even to many people in my community i did not know before...
They ALL said, "You Can't do THAT !" to me many, many many many times. Also, "That's a stupid idea."
That second one is my favorite (or maybe tied for favorite)
Gambling - when odds are against you or even
Speculation - when odds are in your favor (insufficient to only THINK odds are in your favor)
Investing - long term when odds are in your favor (insufficient to THINK odds are in your favor)
I personally feel that Energy is Non-negotiable and that a Reliable Currency is a close second.
And Historically Gold is the Currency of Last Resort - when the "paper" fiat storms begin (and the only thing besides paper currency the Central Banks keep as a store of value).
But I got to studyin' about that, and wondered if you could use a sort of Hubbert regression analysis on Russia - very crude, but maybe a clearer way of looking at the big picture than HL or their reserve #s. If you consider that Russia's oil could have been produced the way most oil is done, by sound geology, you could imagine some gaussian curve along which it would be proceeding now. Oil production left to it's own devices free of geopolitical interference has a strong tendency to follow smooth math curves for reasons I considered here. So with a URR known, you could fit several completed Hubbert curves onto the production data with that area under the curve. The predictive value of this is based on the fact that, when all the oil has been produced, all the areas of production gyration over and under the smooth math curve have to balance out (same amount of oil ultimately produced regardless of the path). I tried this with the Russian chart Khebab did in the above mentioned Russian discussion where he did a probability analysis of URR and a "Hubbert-free" projection of future production. If you retrofit a possible Hubbert curve, it looks like this:
This roughly does the area balance (which dictates red plus purple under the smooth curve must equal green plus purple above the smooth curve). If the green curve would have been the natural production, it implies that the Russian oil industry was relatively dormant in the early stages in the 30s and 40s. From what I've read, this was the case. The Bolshevik Revolution wasn't kind to the oil industry or any other industry. But then the evil empire went on the war path in the 50s to the mid 80s looking like they were going to conquer the world. And their oil production was funding this. You could argue that the huge shoulder of 1965 to 1980 is an exaggerated version of the OPEC overproduction hump during this same time, only in addition to the decade long demand surge causing this as described by Simmons in Twilight, you had the Soviet military ambitions fueling it as well. If you really had this amount of overproduction, it would imply some ominous things about our present day oil situation. There would probably be a high amount of reservoir damage and bypassed oil. This oil would not be recovered at the high flow rate, high pressure primary water sweep, but would induce a sharp decline in production at peak with the bypassed oil recovered at much lower flow rates if recovered at all. The dramatic drop in production in the 90s was due to a combination of overproduced fields giving out, drilling that was too focused on the existing low hanging fruit at the expense of exploratory drilling for the new ones, and the collapse of the evil empire. Balancing all the over/under areas doesn't paint a very robust picture of where Russian production goes from here.
But let's not be so pessimistic. Let's assume that there wasn't this massive reservoir damaging overproduction. After all, the curve I show is just one of several that has this same area under it for the URR. And some of the twin peak behavior can be attributed to the Russians simply developing their oil in two batches, playing out the first batch of big fields before starting in on the 200+ smaller fry. Let's fit a curve that balances our over/under phases and largely eliminates this ugly overproduction. If you go to the other extreme on this overproduction issue, the curve looks like this:
Here there is currently a big imbalance between the overproduced oil and the delayed production that's just waiting to deliver us from our impending shortage. But the big question is at what flow rates will this oil be coming out of the ground? Will this be pre-peak, double-peak, or post-peak flow rate? I obviously show it to be post peak with a little bias toward double peak. It's the shape of the curve in the peak years that matters more than how much oil eventually comes out. This is why I think URR is only important as it relates to forming the shape of the curve in the top half. It's worth noting that all of the area balancing in the charts is within the confines of the +/- 1 sigma probability range projected in Khebab's chart. A lot depends on the condition of Russia's fields. We need Simmons to write a book about "Twilight on the Tundra". Unless the Russian oil industry is robust enough to surge well beyond the decline shown, it doesn't look to me like they can be depended on to come to the rescue of a Saudi collapse or any other major problem. And if the case is Chart "A", they will be a big problem themselves.
I plan to do more reading into just what all went on in the Soviet era, because it would seem to have a huge bearing on how severe our approaching problems are going to be. My present opinion is a result closer to Chart "A". I can't help but suspect that Soviet reservoir management was done more from the point of an AK47 than from geology 101. An interesting article I ran across was this where a U.S. Air Force major wrote a piece in Air University Review in 1980 titled "NATO and Oil - Conflict and Capabilities" about Russia. Clear back then, he sounded like Simmons today only talking about Russia and predicting a production collapse by the mid 80s. He pointed out the big, easily produced fields playing out and the numerous new fields in inaccessible, hard to produce areas with technical problems. He points out that Russia ambitiously directed over half of their exports to Eastern Europe supplying them with 3/4 of their needs and other geopolitical factors that led to serious overproduction where "...rewards for exceeding goals are given without regard to productivity over the long term." Keep in mind that the industry-challenged Soviets had little of interest to offer in global trade other than oil, which was the rapidly expanding empire's main funding. "The consequences are...overproduction of existing fields using low productivity techniques that reduce the total amount of recoverable oil." The Russian situation back then was so bad that the major, not being a student of Hubbert, apparently, on the bigger global picture, was concerned about a global oil war developing as soon as the late 80s.
- The know-how we have today in terms of EOR technologies.
- An easy access to capital for investment
- A proper management and a proper motivation of the human resource
To achieve prodigies of overproduction in such environment against some fictionous geology limit that must have been pulling you back, seems simply incredible to me.Trust me this was not the case.
And their scientific and technical knowledge was always strong. Another advantage of their system was their ability to identify promising students, whether athletically or intellectually, and funnel them into special schools and training academies. In the West, talented students are expected to create their own success, but in most of the Eastern bloc the government would pluck them out and put them on the fast track. You don't get to be the first country to put up a satellite, put a man into space and into orbit without having first class scientific know-how. The Russian space program was big and inefficient but it did amazing things.
I don't know the details of Russian oil development, but this sounds like the kind of industry they tended to do very well. It's big, it's messy, it's large-scale, and it's of crucial importance to the industrial and military success of the nation. I imagine that oil development was an extremely high priority to the government and got all the capital and technical expertise that was available. In such a system, over-production would have been a very real possibility.
My nephew is being taught by his father about the Physical Limits of Some resources in his game (Civilization I think?). He talks about not using up the wood, stone and gold etc.
BUT the DARN KID is an Econo-Creationist at Heart. I call him Alan Greenspawn to tease him.
THE kid found CHEAT SHEETS that allow for Unlimited Resources !!!
YES - A Monty Python Monty Hall Universe (#42) EXISTS ... but, unfortunately, only in the minds of econo-creationsists and small children.... not in Mothers Reality)
I think we should suggest it to some company like Activision or we may even create an open soruce project ourselves :)
(P.S. They put the resource limits in Civilisation IV, I think; Civ is(was) another brilliant game up to Civ II)
DIBS !!! for www.oildrum.org
for the Rites of Passage and Publishing on Our Colctive intellectuallymasterbationary Property.
Signed this Date (whatever) - ___
Thank you for your consideration.
The Premise - sounds outstanding.
By killing off other tribes, you could take thier resources.
Yes, typical of desert descendantantses. Let's Try introducing Pocket's-O-Plenty where Forest Peoples Dwell....
and tend to "usually" get along better ... (resources availabvle versus stresses place on Saps ... hmmm equilibriums can be disturbed even in TempTrop and Rainy as well as Dayzed FORESTS. The point is we should broaden the likely "Escape Pods" Mother OFFERS... for example to t to the RedClaws of the Aussie Hot-n-Dry Outbacksthere-otta-the way...
"You could eventually study all kinds of supernatural techniques"
OR you could leave that bullship-O-Foolz godz crap right out of the game completely THIS TIME here and Now.
"to produce storms to wipe out the other tribe "
Yes. The Mother already has that one covered and she doesn't talk to Godz-Hearing leaders or care if their Cities Expect Them to wipe hinders clean.
"or to make your guys go berzerk on them or for thier guys to be disoriented (biological warfare). It's all been done.
Yes, the typical Homo Da Saps route of least resistances and less competition and eminies to-be-lowered populations-to-contend-with Para-Dig-Mmm. for a Dime a dozen.
"Age of Empires was the same basic idea. Then were many other knock offs. "
Age of Empires is a Child's Game and is a cheap IMITATION of The Mother's Very Real Gamez of Life-Forms-Gone-Bubble
"Powergrid" sounds interesting, as does a Games Night at Jakes Pizza. Maybe I know someone locally that might like to have a "PowerGrid Master TourniQuititPlease" Games Night at his pizza place near the Hight School... hhmmmm. Good thing I read your post Fellow Butterfly.
BUT that looks like a BIG TARGET for The Mother to focus on there abouts where you PLAY PowerGrid FOR REAL MAYBE ????? Just maybe sum of dayze TheN ?....:
http://maps.sanantonio.gov/website/Zoning/viewer.asp
Just like that Hockey Puck SHE tossed at 'O'leans... you don't need levies though in San Ant Onio's Hot House though.
(usually the "zombies" look a lot like Mean Mamma Grizzly Bears)
Do markets really Anticipate? How far in Advance
Consider the fact that the NYMEX Oil Futures Contracts Started trading in 1983 - about 10 years AFTER the first Oil Shocks and also Three Years After the Iranian crises (and note overall production dipped from '80 to '83 wherit bottomed and bounced finally...).
Again the US BOND Yield Curve Inversion is "predicting" another recession likely to begin later this year. It has pretty good prediction (right every time in 30 years or so). But the Stock Markets Party like it is 1999 (just as the yeild curve inverted in 1999.... hmmm).
So what is the Smart Money ("commercials") Betting On at this point in the Here and Now Time ???? They are Shorting (betting against) the Nasdaq.
http://www.freecotcharts.com/charts/NQ.htm
Commercials are the Blue Line in LOWER Graph is (Diving = selling) - scroll graph to right for "the present")
NOTICE the Red and Greens are BUYING"
These are the "traders" big (hedge) and small (retail foolz like me - except in this specific case thank godz).
An Economy whose Bond Markets says is heading for Recession... Birdz Flu in Europe... God Fearing And GOD Hearing Leaders w/BigBombs... PEAK CHEAP OIL (at least) .... Islamic Fundies and EuroIdiot Editors who deliberately incite to inform, instead of inform w/o the stupid reprinted cartoons... Nigerian Jungle Fighters fighting for THEIR oil... Energy Starving China eyeing Siberia and Russia OUTING BUSH by jerking Gas Chains to euro and asian foreign allies (to show Putin Meant Business!) and then Bush MIRACULOUSLY decides a week or two later to have a brand-spankin' "NEW ENERGY IDEA - HEY, LISTEN UP !!!"... just ONE WEEK BEFORE the RUSSIANS said the G8 Summit "WILL be about ENERGY SECURITY..." hmmm
I think the Commercials are right and the Stock Market Dives later this year some time just like THEY are btting On at This Time and Place in space.
Investors make their predictions/bets in order to receive investment returns from the system. I believe, as I am now guessing they do too, that there will be no "system" to deliver currency returns after a short period of time past peak. Therefore, bets on what oil will "cost" in 2015 are meaningless because there will be no currency, so the numbers simply reflect some stable imaginary world that they themselves do not believe, but have no incentive to bet otherwise because the bookie will be closed.
I think Little Richard Heindenburgendenden is correcter that there will probably be series after seris of recesions (whiplashing between deflation and hyperinflation ??).
I do not think the Markets are at all anticipating a catastrophic outcome soon - let alone ever apparetnly.
I personally think We Homo Saps will go down with a whimper, only to Rise from the Canvas of Life ... and then who knows... watch another Mass Extinction due to Another Green House Global HotTub... maybe another million years from now.
Civilizations EBB AND FLOW - and rarely really disappear. The Web of Homo sapians Civilized Domains will probably contract but and What Wealth remains will Again be RE-Distributed After the Fall as usual.
I think.
Let The Mother Know what you think if you want to maker her git a big bear belly laugh.
After peaking, oil production declines, and either demand must decline accordingly or price must rise and rise. Your series of recessions would be possible, but there is no prospect of a serious expansion taking hold following those recessions. With oil prices rising or demand decreasing, the resources would not be available to undertake a massive, unprecedented transformation of infrastructure that would be required to switch to an alternate energy source to fuel the economy even if such an alternative existed technologically.
Like an animal's beating heart, capitalism is sustained only by the promise of return on investment. As soon as investors realize that there will be no returns on investment, capitalism ceases to exist. I cannot conceive of any scenario in which investors do not realize this in the very near future.
What if famine and plague etc, wipe out 1/2 the Cureent Population of Homo Saps in a year's time or so ... sorta like the sorta thing that happens in olden, very olden, dayze, as well as in cycles longer than one human life span?
MANY, many, many variables... cannot compute accurately...
But I do agree with others who think This System wil NOT go down without a fight for every tooth and nail.
Very few things go straigh up or down, and I thing that humans will learn a lot from the decline of this latest and Greatest try at civilization. We be back, as some guy said in some ocean after gittin' his buttocks kicked.
Look, what If it rains every thursday for the next 10 (ten) years and the Plague Serves Up 500,000 by Lunch TimezUp for The Mother...
AND ... then one week later a limited Nuclear Exchange between what was formerly Iran...
no wait... Mother says to Hushnow titbabies don't you cry, Mama not gonna Poke youse in Thine Eyes have NOT seen the Wrathe of the Mother in All HER GORY Glory for MANY years I think.. at least in yer 1stest and Bestest of worlds there... hmmmmm...
yup.
Sounds complicated and almost metaphysical... probably not metaphysical at all though - another cheap patho fleast resistance and Most Pain and stupidity.
Attempting to make a purchase can change the object's price."
Especially if you Buy @ Market Price LARGE QUANTITIES IN A PANIC because whoKnowsWhatInHades went wrong now.
Same with Selling large quantities @ the Piggies Mkt (recall what happened to Piggy on the Island that Wrohiped Flies... sora like worshipin' Fiat Paper.
What was the question again?
That is an amusing analogy but it is not really true, because the market is so large that one person's decision to buy does not have a detectable influence on price.
I'll tell you a different story that is somewhat similar, and this one is actually true. In economics there are a number of paradoxical "no trade" theorems. They say, basically, that if two people go to make a trade on a futures market, which amounts to making a bet about a future price, the trade will not go through. The mere fact that the other person is willing to bet against them is sufficient evidence to dissuade a rational person from making the bet!
This is a true theorem of economics and has been proven under a wide range of assumptions. Rational people will not bet against each other, or trade on futures markets.
To give an idea of how these proofs go, let me explain some of the reasoning. Suppose you and I disagree on some issue. Hypothetically, suppose I believe that the future price of oil will be $50, and you believe that it will be $200. We're going to bet on this, so we each know what price the other believes, and (this is important!) we know that the other person knows our beliefs, and they know we know they know, and so on ad infinitum. This is called "common knowledge", where two people know things, know they know them, and so on forever.
Now I ask myself, why is it that you believe in such a different valuation? We are both rational, meaning that we draw conclusions as well as we can from the information available to us. We are born into the same world but we have different information. Some of that information is built into our genes, some comes from our upbringing, and some comes from specific facts we have learned, such as facts about the oil situation. I know that somehow, the information you have convinces you of this $200 valuation, even though you know that my own information convinces me of a $50 valuation.
The question is, which of us has better information? A priori, there's no way to tell. I know how good my information is, but I don't know how good yours is. The only clue is that you won't change your mind even though you know that my opinion is very different.
Suppose I judge the quality of information available to me to be poor, to be less than the average person. Maybe I haven't studied the oil situation very closely. Then the fact that you have come to a different conclusion would suggest that you are more likely to be correct. OTOH suppose I judge the quality of my information to be higher than average. In this case, even though you have a different opinion, I would guess that my opinion is the correct one.
To help with the analysis, let's make it quantitative, and create a number to represent judgement of information quality, where 0.0 means terrible quality and I'm just guessing, and 1.0 means perfect quality and I am absolutely certain of the facts. Then I am saying that if my information quality is less than 0.5, it makes sense for me to switch when I find out that you disagree, while if it is greater than 0.5 I should stick to my opinion.
However, the next step is to take into consideration the fact that you would not switch when you found out my belief. Applying the logic above, and again assuming we are both rational, that means that you also judge your information quality to be above 0.5. So now I have to ask, how does my information quality compare with the average in the range 0.5-1.0? I could say, if my information quality is less than 0.75, I should switch now, because yours is probably higher; while if my information quality is greater than 0.75, I should still stick to my opinion.
Supposing that I will not switch, I can then put myself in your shoes and take the analysis one step deeper. The only thing that would keep you from switching, if you know my certainty is in the range 0.75 to 1.0, is if your own certainty is greater than 0.875. And then, knowing that, the only thing that would keep me from switching is if my own certainty level is greater than 0.9375.
This process goes on implicitly to an infinite degree, as we approach to shake hands and make our bet. At each moment that the other rational person refuses to switch, we have to increase our mental estimate of how good his information quality is, which in turn requires him to further increase his own estimate of our information quality, and so on. In the limit both of us must have perfect information in order to make a bet, but if we had perfect information, we would not disagree about a factual matter.
Hence it can't happen. Two people who are rational and know it can't bet, because the mere fact that the other person is willing to make the bet proves that we are wrong to be so certain that we are right.
In my opinion that is as remarkable and dramatic a result as the field of economics has to offer. There are a whole range of similar results that come from this kind of analysis. I am continuing to study this subject and incorporate these insights into my own view of the world. I see these considerations as offering a revolutionary new way for people to make decisions and judgements about the world. It has totally changed how I think of things and drives my perspectives on the Peak Oil issue as well as many other areas. For those who have read my postings on this site, perhaps this will offer some insight into where I am coming from.
Residents of Gbaramatu alleged that the explosion was from an undetonated bomb used on the community in February by men of "Operation Restore Hope" while destroying barges belonging to illegal oil bunkers.
"Operation Restore Hope" is the military task force assigned to stop oil thieves and ensure that peace is restored in the turbulent Niger Delta.
Shell Petroleum Development Company is the major oil company operating in the area, but no confirmation has come yet from the company that the affected pipelines belonged to it.
No representative of "Operation Restore Hope" was available for comments at the time of this report.
Country profile: Nigeria
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/country_profiles/1064557.stm
After lurching from one military coup to another, Nigeria now has an elected leadership. But it faces the growing challenge of preventing Africa's most populous country from breaking apart along ethnic and religious lines.
OIL BATTLES
The Delta's troubled waters
Nigeria's shadowy oil rebels
Oil fuels Delta conflict
Working in a danger zone
Profile: Militia leader
Oil prices continue to rise in Asian trading ... US oil giant Chevron said Wednesday it had shut down one of its oil production plants in the Niger Delta, costing Nigeria 13,000 barrels per day (bpd) in lost output. ... Chevron spokesman Michael Barrett said the firm had shut the Makaraba flow station after an unexplained leak on a crude oil pipeline connecting the plant to the Escravos export platform caused a minor spill.
[Chevron's] Oil pipeline blown up in Nigeria, but said to be unlinked with militants [who are attacking Shell] "No. If this actually happened, it may have been carried out by local villagers or thieves," Gbomo said.
Nigerian militia tells British oilmen to get out warn 'rapist' oil workers The health system has collapsed, rivers and creeks are full of oil slicks and environmental groups say towering gas flares cause acid rain. Villagers complain that oil pollution has killed off fish and contaminated their drinking water.
Militants give 10 conditions - To release other hostages "be ensured that oil companies no longer operate behind the soldiers, disband the security Joint Task Force (JTF) and demilitarise Ijaw land."
Nigeria : Diplomats shun Niger Delta Meanwhile, the militant group, The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), which has been behind the spate of hostage taking in the Niger Delta, has threatened that it will extend its attack to other parts of the Niger Delta, especially Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Cross River states as part of efforts to achieve its purpose of crippling the country's ability to export crude oil if their demands are not met.
HAHAHA! Stop! Stop! you're killing me! CNN didn't report...oh that's so funny.
The Nigerian story reports there's a bomb from a US operations but doesn't know if the pipelines are Shell's or not.
The news from Chevron on the very same day in the very same part of the world is an "unexplained pipeline leak" causing a "minor spill".
And you are telling me that you can't find the story on CNN.
Let's me spell it out for you: Chevron's pipeline explosion story did not appear on CNN because it's being censored by the US media.
The word "Massive" just isn't used that often, this is more likely a major event.
Notice the name of the Govmint "Army", Operation Restore hope!
You know the USofA has a hand in this, no other country would have a ridiculous name like this. Watch for "Freedom Fighters" or "Democracy Forces", those will be used later in the year, as part of a "Hurricane-like" naming system for Combat Operations around the world.
How fitting is the name though?
A little bit of over-anal-izing, one would come to the conclusion that this is the perfect name, the citizens of Niger Delta have fallen in the dark trap known as reality, they're just not hoping (sp?) enough anymore. Can one be get to the end of their......"Hope"? (I know I shouldn't of went there.)
It's time to re-inforce hope, by using guns and bombs.
http://www.griffith.edu.au/centre/urp/URP_RP6_OilVulnerability_Final.pdf
and is now being copied in others. The Griffith University report has found poorer outer suburbs in Australian cities are likely to be most affected by rising petrol costs because of their dependence on motor vehicles and limited access to public transport. This contrasts sharply with wealthy inner suburbs, which are less vulnerable to high bowser prices because of their higher incomes and better access to public transport.
This is similar to the earlier concept of "fuel poverty". This idea has been developed in the United Kingdom and the British Government published its Fuel Poverty Policy in November 2001 (http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/consumers/fuel_poverty/index.shtml ).
Finally, a report late last year by Volunteering Australia in a media release on December 5, 2005 highlighted the impact of rising petrol prices on Australians volunteering to help their fellow Australians:
Coinciding with International Volunteer Day, Volunteering Australia, the national peak body for volunteering, has found that a staggering 52 per cent of surveyed organisations say their volunteers plan to stop or reduce their participation, including 11 per cent who have already stopped or changed volunteering, because of increased petrol costs.
http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=7fcdca3519c8b40f
Canadian oil flowing into United States
Big News Network.com
Saturday 4th March, 2006 (UPI)
Canada has become the biggest exporter of oil to the United States with the re-opening of a pipeline from Alberta to Oklahoma.
Crude oil from Alberta's tar sands began flowing this week from the Calgary, Alberta-based Enbridge Corp.'s facility through a 650-mile stretch of steel from Chicago to Cushing, Okla.
For years the pipe, which used to be owned by BP, carried Gulf of Mexico crude to northern markets, but as the Gulf supply dwindles, the crude is flowing in a different direction, the Houston Chronicle reported Saturday.
The line has an initial capacity to transport 125,000 barrels of oil a day, but can be expanded easily, the report said.
Exxon Mobil is also working on a pipeline reversal that would bring Canadian crude down to Gulf Coast refiners instead of flowing Gulf oil north to Midwestern markets.
Canada outranks Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia as oil exporters, and will likely double its oil production in the next decade, thanks to production from the oil sands.
Peak Oil is very interesting. I happen to be in the mobile phone industry one of the few that would benefit from peak oil since more people chat and work while waiting for the bus or train.
With that thought I've been thinking about how much people must travel in our modern society in many cases its a holdover from past customs not a requirement. Think about it this way we have had equal opportunity for most people ( more or less ) for at least 30 years in the US but there is still a significant amount of discrimination for gender and race in this country. I know the example is a bit inflammatory but in general the country is heading towards true equality it just takes a loooong time.
The same is true in business we still have a paranoid management concept and the 9-5 work week tradition almost directly inherited with little change the neolithic farming days.
I think with technology and some social adjustment many many people could work a lot from home and engage in business as they travel periodically to work on mass transit or for example company buses. Micro offices in the suburbs are also reasonable.
Finally distributed manufacturing is quite possible right now we have almost universal manufacturing equipment available cnc machines and various lithographic prototyping machines its much easier to transmit a design over the Internet then a physical product. Local recycling could keep a large percentage of raw materials close at hand.
Also for things like plastic manufacturing molds can be sent instead of the final product.
We could also consider going back to traveling sales people and fairs to present goods
when people want to see products.
I think that this forum is underestimating the usage of technology in transforming our society into one that travels
only when needed and then works during the trip.
If we transformed our society how much could we save in wasted energy ?
I'm guessing
75% on transportation.
60% on goods
50% on reduced energy waste in manufacturing.
Even with all this we need to aggressively invest in all energy resources coal, nuclear and renewable. I think that the real cost of using coal will eventually limit its usefulness but a combination of coal/nuclear and tar sands/nuclear is probably a must simply to transform our society since we will wait till its too late to change. In the end I think the cost of these solutions will convince society to change but we have to accept that it won't happen as it should. And even then modern society needs a lot of cheap electricity so nuclear fission or fusion is a must.
As far as coal goes we seem to be able to pipe natural gas across our nation there is no reason we can't reuse the existing infrastructure for moving C02 at least to were we could use algae mitigation ponds to sequester the gas or other methods of disposal
irregardless if we wish to do anything about C02 it will have to be piped.
The reason I'm writing is I think that its time for the people who believe in peak oil to also start working on real solutions the sooner we start the less we will use coal resources in a destructive manner.
But energy is not the problem, the real problem is can we create a society were people want to be productive with minimal supervision ?
Michael Emmel
When the grid went down in the Blackout of '03, the most of the cell towers went dark, too. When people are losing their jobs or facing staggering fuel bills, will they continue to pay for two or three or four phones? Or will they stick with just one? If they had to choose only one, many would probably pick a cell phone today, but if blackouts become common as natural gas declines, landlines may be seen as the more reliable choice.
And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
First if there is one place that dense high performance solar cells and wind power make sense a cell tower is a good one.
In fact one of the major uses of solar power is in the telecomunications industry. I don't have the data to do the numbers but I bet that there is more then enough room on a tower to add enough solar cells and wind generation equipment to power the network. Also don't underestimate the power savings on the horizon from asynchronous circuts and all optic
communications technologies others such as WiMAX would play a big part. Finally if were faced with the problems you mention civilian use of spread spectrum technology whould really limit the amount of data that needs to run over a wired (optic really ) network.
Theres more solar powered or highly efficient gas powered flying platforms and various blimp propsitions are very compelling.
The bottom line is that if needed or desired, making our networks efficient and keeping them powered via renewables is one of the few places that alternative energy makes sense.
And yes I think they will pay for the phones since its going to be the only way they can stay in communication during slow transits. In fact I think people will give up there cars before they give up there mobiles. If you have ever been in a third world country you would know that mobile phones are now critical to society.
If our society does self destruct the last modern act for most people before chaos hits will probably be to make on last call on the mobile thats what they do today during disasters.
Agian I've decided to post since it seems a lot of Peak Oilers can't see we need to move away from tradition and embrace the technology the keeps us from having to move around and burn oil.
In particular, I was responding to your claim that peak oil would be good for the mobile phone industry. I think that's absolutely wrong. Even things proceed as you imagine, it will raise costs. And I seriously doubt it will raise revenue. Just about everyone who wants a cell phone now has one (or two, or three...). So you aren't going to increase the customer base much. And many of those who keep multiple phones will start dropping them, to save money. It's the economic effects of peak oil that many of us are worried about. People will be losing their jobs, and when they do, they can't pay their cell phone bills.
In the long run, it's the energy cost of complexity that worries me. It's why I don't think technology is the answer.
New poster, long lurker, be kind. I do broadcast, and I have to say where the cell network up here (Maine) wants to be on backup, they use propane. We use a chopper to lift 20 or 30 100lb tanks. I think our friend must be in sales, because I don't see a chopper, or the propane magically appearing to keep the network up.
It's already being done.
http://www.nextbillion.net/solar-powered-cellphone-access-africa
I'd suggest your mobile provider about using renewables.
And there are companies that get it.
http://www.ericsson.com/ericsson/corporate_responsibility/environ_sustain/index.shtml
For Main remember I did mention wind energy but here are links for solar.
If your goint to start using ancedotal statements.
Get the power requriments for the base station can WiMAX be used for backhaul etc. Its a technical problem easy to figure out. Generally I think you will find the power requirments well within those provided by renewable energy
even with today's equipment.
I'm not the first to think of this btw.
In testing
http://news.tmcnet.com/news/2006/jan/1264298.htm
The coolest
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/dryden/news/NewsReleases/2002/02-44.html
http://www.telecommons.com/villagephone/section1.html
http://www.socalwug.org/batteryap1.htm
http://www.dailywireless.org/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=2189
http://www.skytowerglobal.com/news-archive/PMRF.html
http://www.campbellsci.com/documents/lit/b_redwing_cdma.pdf
This is for weather but its interesting since its generally off the grid
http://www.coastalenvironmental.com/cgi/index2.php?section=defmet&content=wmd
Another remote data use case mainly for the Oil Industry
http://www.remotemagazine.com/nov05feature.htm
I don't consider that relevent since the depression started before telephones where really deployed and a intrinsic part of society. And mobile communications are intrinsically different from wired.
See
http://www.privateline.com/TelephoneHistory3A/TeleHistory3A.htm
Hoover got a phone on the white house desk right at the start of the depression. And if you read the story even then the telco's were monopolies but we all all aware of the history of the telecommunications field. I did not say they were angels or are for that matter.
The page has some brief notes on world war two but even at that time the telephone industry was still young so its tough to guage. I found a little information about telephone service during the war but generally it seems people wanted telephones but service was hard to get because of wartime rationing no mention is made of any great drop in service.
Military use of the telephone network was of course large.
Now its not wrong to compare historical events with today I'd say for example it makes sense to compare usage from the 1950 onward with today but going back before then is dubious becuase even into the 1940's horse transportation was quite common and cars were not generally available nor were good roads. In the oil idustry even I'd say it matured in the 1970's before then we were still developing the basic technology and doing major exploration.
Today it would be cool to get Iraq's cell phone usage stats
http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2004/041001-iraq-network.htm
So at least in Iraq even with there economy in shambles there using mobile phones.
Agian there is to much focus on transportation and not really looking at the other great invention of the 20'th century
Communication. I agree that High Tech won't help solve the transportation problem since its a basic thermodynamic issue but if we want to we can use the other gift communication to vastly decrease the needs for transportation and still maintain a high tech society.
What I'm trying to show is that there are vital industries in this country that could move to renewable energy the telecommunication/computer industry is in my opinion the best place to start mainly since they have the tech to supply themselves with solar cells at cost. The only way out of this mess is to start conversion to renewables now were we can and isolate the requirements for massive industral energy needs so they can be handled by
nuclear or coal.
Cantarell -- An Omen?
By Tom Whipple
There are a lot of bad things out there waiting to bite as the world moves towards peak oil-- Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, China, globalization, and hurricanes to name a few. Last week a new bogeyman arose -- super fast oil depletion.
Our story begins 65 million years ago when the Chicxulub meteor (or perhaps comet) crashed into the sea near the Yucatan Peninsula . This was one big bang, for it not only wiped out all our dinosaurs, but also took out 75% of the species living on earth.
As our 10 km wide meteor was tooling along at 60,000 miles per hour when it hit, there was not much left of the meteor but vapor after the impact, but for a few seconds, there was a monster hole in the earth 100 miles in diameter. I won't go into all the terrible things that happened to our earth in the months after the blast, but few living things survived.
Our new hole promptly filled up with rubble (breccia, to geologists) pushed in by the rushing waters of the returning sea and landslides along the sides of the crater. Somewhere, between 65 million years ago and 1976, parts of this underwater rubble filled hole, filled up with about 35 billion barrels of oil. Making it one of the world's greatest oil fields. It is now called Cantarell.
Snip ......
http://www.fcnp.com/550/peakoil.htm
{{How many will answer Similar Calls ... As the lights dim on Homo Saps Energy Starved Civilization...
The Russian Bear finds itself sitting on top of The Rock, and also on top of The Hard Place, totaling about 2.3 billion and counting... (pretty fast too now that ya mention it... lots of counters ... to feed and to keep warm). Many different tongues, colors and cultures...
Does the Russian Bear cry, "Help Me Mr. Wizard !!!" or does he call he Western Friends and say, "Ah guys, we need to talk... for the G8 meetin' this year... ????}}
By Kate Clark
File On 4, BBC Radio 4
Four years ago, the Americans claimed victory over the Taleban. But in the past year, the fighting has intensified, producing the worst casualty figures since 2001.
"I'm fighting with a Kalashnikov and an RPG - a rocket propelled grenade launcher," he said. "I'm not trying to take over the country. I am just trying to earn my salary."
This fighter joined the jihad for cash.
"They gave me a salary, new clothes, shoes, a motorbike and a Kalashnikov rifle. I had to go and fight where they told me for seven or eight days a month."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/file_on_4/4755222.stm
Is this the story?
Oil prices continue to rise in Asian trading ... US oil giant Chevron said Wednesday it had shut down one of its oil production plants in the Niger Delta, costing Nigeria 13,000 barrels per day (bpd) in lost output. ... Chevron spokesman Michael Barrett said the firm had shut the Makaraba flow station after an unexplained leak on a crude oil pipeline connecting the plant to the Escravos export platform caused a minor spill.
Or is this the story?
Explosion blows up oil pipeline Saturday, Mar 4, 2006 ... An explosion in Chanoni creek in Gbaramatu Kingdom in the Niger Delta blew up oil pipelines, Wednesday leading to the spilling of massive, but yet to be specified volume of oil.
Residents of Gbaramatu alleged that the explosion was from an undetonated bomb used on the community in February by men of "Operation Restore Hope" while destroying barges belonging to illegal oil bunkers.
"Operation Restore Hope" is the military task force assigned to stop oil thieves and ensure that peace is restored in the turbulent Niger Delta.
Shell Petroleum Development Company is the major oil company operating in the area, but no confirmation has come yet from the company that the affected pipelines belonged to it.
No representative of "Operation Restore Hope" was available for comments at the time of this report.
Note that this is the Chevron pipeline explosion not the Shell ones.
Last Updated: Sunday, 5 March 2006, 08:08 GMT
Iranian in US campus 'car attack'
An Iranian student has been charged with attempting to murder nine people with a car in the US to "avenge the deaths of Muslims", he told police.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4775544.stm
(oh, wait,... maybe make that 2012)
On Holiday in (ANY WHERE FAMILIAR)
By Krakotawa Katie
Newz Only Now On-Line
Grey apartment blocks, bugged hotel rooms, an erratic electricity supply and rumours of a secret nuclear arsenal - (Former HIGHLIFE) is not everyone's idea of a perfect holiday destination...
"There is a road called Restaurant Street, which has several food outlets, all of which are empty," he said. "There are no menus, as you get what there is in stock. The best restaurant in town served us a burger with a fried egg."
..Its many statues and monuments - most of them dedicated to the now-deceased (("Eternal Growth Forever is Not Negotiable" former Civilization)) - are a must-see.
"There's absolutely no reference...," he said.
"At night, because of the energy shortages, there are no lights and it's absolutely silent. You can hear babies crying from the other side of the river."
"We've had people who want to see the county rollercoasters, and others who want to tour 'The Same Ol' CrapAgin' 4Dinner' revolving restaurants," he said.
"It's not Torremolinos (Anymorez)," he said, "but there's no place like it."
.... (High Rise Coffins in Lg MegaTropical MegaCities built for 2 for $2,000,000/ sq ft... hmmmm, wise choice there Saps...)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3113352.stm
Question: How do you make your text bold on your posts?
Comment: Please dont do it unless absolutely essential - not good or eye Feng Shui - italics would be better, though I dont know how to do those either.
If you use Firefox, get the BBCodeXtra extension. It lets you do bold, italics, quotes, links, etc,. very easily. No HTML experience necessary. (Though you'll quickly learn, when you see what the extension does.)
You can search the Firefox site for extensions. Just about anything you ever wanted to do with a Web browser, someone has written an extension for it.
Once you install BBCodeXtra, you'll see a new menu when you right-click in the "post message" box. You can highlight text and bold it, turn it into a link, put one of those quoteboxes around it, etc.
The actual BBCode option is for PHP boards (like PeakOil.com). Use the HTML or XHTML options for blogs like TOD.
The oil drum already has a list of these easy ways:
http://www.theoildrum.com/special/autoformat_syntax
I'm an old programmer (started making web sites in vi) so I just type the HTML in-line. That's really easy ... but it might take a little bootstrapping to see how easy it is.
best wishes
I just learnted that by accident. *Thank you *for you for confirming evidence *of confounding experimental results. *I say again == THANK YOU....
I kinda like bold... Bold is Bea-U-tiful??...Back in Black, Black-n-Blue... back 2 U Mother...
[ Parental advisor sore-ly needed maybe Ma ??? ]
YES AN IGNORE FEATURE would be helpful. To allow sorting of thoughts and ideas for Easy to Follow Threads ...
so as NOT to disrupt or interrupt This Important Message from Our flockers next nest.
{(Yes. They do get bored don't they mother. They always gat a board, sometimes with nails even. And a rock, and a torch, and pitchfork for poking out Eyes that Might not look, sound, smell, feel or even TASTE like them.
So, as you were saying Mother...)}
Another step closer to a banana republic.
Which side are you on boys, which side are you on?
I recommend watching Faux News with the sound turned down, and Billy Bragg turned up loud on the stereo.
It seems that there are thousands of sites where people want to hear and discuss these ideas. Why do commenters want to post off topic opinions here?
Sorry if this sopunds rude, but I really don't understand this. Donal is a serious poster on this and other sites with a lot to say that is relevant. But this seems to be at about the same level as me deciding to share what I had for lunch.
However, I do think that TOD suffers because commenters allow political biases to lead them to wander off topic. While I am no fan of Bush, I am bored by the fixation some people have on him. I think this site would be better if we could focus on the subject at hand, peak oil, and save purely political topics for other blogs.
I think the uniform issue is interesting, which is why I read about it elsewhere. I did say that you are a serious posetr and I enjoy your comments. I just get annoyed because relentless and oppressive Bush bashing seems to have seaped into and diluted just about everything.
You are of course correct that Bush is just a small cog in the machine and he personally is not responsible for the situation our civilization finds itself in today.
However, as emotional, irrational creatures, we sometimes have to bash and lash out at something or somebody; and Bush is just so available as a scapegoat for our chimp-based emotional outlets --not that Bush bashing really helps anything.
Hahaha. You said it, not me.
It's true, isn't it?
We bash Bush while complaining about some issue (PO, Global Warming, FEMA-Katrina, etc.) and then the apologists for the incompetent administration (oops, I didn't mean to say "incompetent", it just accidentally slipped out) pop in and change the subject from PO, GW, etc. to that of defending king and country.
The more things change, the more we chimps stay the same old chimps. :-)
Main Entry: 1scape·goat
Pronunciation: 'skAp-"gOt
Function: noun
Etymology: 1scape; intended as translation of Hebrew 'azAzEl (probably name of a demon), as if 'Ez 'OzEl goat that departs--Leviticus 16:8 (AV)
1 : a goat upon whose head are symbolically placed the sins of the people after which he is sent into the wilderness in the biblical ceremony for Yom Kippur
You see the same idea in the King Kong movies: Just give the big ape one blonde a month and he will be appeased and leave the rest of us alone.
We have it in our evolutionary makeup to "sacrifice" a few of our herd so that the rest can make it. Read up on the Mayan ritual of sacrificing their most perfect children to the mountain gods.
I see nothing wrong in scapegoating Bush. After all, he is the one who calls on everyone else to make that "ultimate sacrifice". So this Bush bashing is simply a turn of the tables; a sauce for the gander instead of for the goose.
It's word of the day for me. What made me look up this post 6 hours after I wrote it is that I'm listening to the BBC now and they are using the word alot in coverage of Moussoui's(sp?) death sentence hearing(trial). Can we call you prescient?
I'll have to read back to see if Bush bashing is warranted in this example. step back and stay tuned. It's great we can discuss this word. This is a William Safire moment.
Actually, this concerned a Rep. Musgrave, I think, not Bush, although Novak opined that it will become more widespread. I'd like to think that I'd be just as appalled by all this if Dems were behind it. Back in the 80s, I had girlfriends that considered me way too conservative.
A Near Miss in Saudi Arabia Hints at Future Shocks
By Gal Luft
Sunday, March 5, 2006; Page B02
"We call our brothers in the battlefields to direct some of their great efforts towards the oil wells and pipelines. . . . The killing of 10 American soldiers is nothing compared to the impact of the rise in oil prices on America and the disruption that it causes in the international economy." -- A jihadist Web site
Read the full interesting article here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/03/AR2006030302046.html
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-03-03T214032Z_01_N 03542028_RTRUKOC_0_US-ENERGY-OPEC-OIL.xml
Intra- and InterpFamilial WarFar During the Here-n-Now-When-U-Leastest-Expected-IT ...Traumatic Stress Syndrome
-------------
Positively 4th Street
-------------
Y[G]ou've got a [Am]lot of nerve to [C]say you are my fri[G]end
Wh[G]en I was down [C]you just stood there gr[D]inning[Dsus4] [D]
Yo[G]u've got a [Am]lot of nerve to say you g[C]ot a helping hand to l[G]end
Y[G]ou just want to be [C]on the side that's w[D]inning
You see me on the street, you always act surprised
You say 'how are you, good luck' but you don't mean it
When you know as well as me you'd rather see me paralysed
Why don't you just come out once and scream it.
I know the reason why you talk behind my back
I used to be among the crowd you're in with
Do you take me for such a fool to think I'd make contact
With the one who tries to hide what he don't know to begin with?
No I do not feel that good when I see the heartbreaks you embrace
If I was a master thief, perhaps I'd rob them
You say you're not impressed? with your position and your place
Don't you understand, that's not my problem
I wish that for just one time, you could walk inside my shoes
And just for that one moment, I could be you
Yeah, I wish that for just one time, you could walk inside my shoes
You'd know what a drag it is to see you....
Complacent MENTAL TERRORIST Assult Intelligence of Brown Cow Alone out in da field dare... ya you betcha!
asres... Froggive Them The Mother... For They Know NOT what the Hades they are doin' out there... >whew<
--George W. Bush, May 2001
I like that Quote.
I wonder ... did They Drop the ball along the way...
;
;;;; (remember that game centipede...???)
;;
:
OR did the
Ante-Up Bushites simply realize - "No,... no... the TITBABIES,
... they will just Burrow Deeper looking for MORE Federal Teets With hard Nipplez to suckle from as usual... that's all they'l do an' you know it... that and POIT FINGERS .. mostly a themselves of course (but they won't notice THAT ... that The Mother Expected EACH and every One of Us to be REsponsible for OurSelves ... maybe...Just ONCE in this Time and Place... just Once would be nice.
(yes mother, i know youse is gittin' hungier by the minute... and a minute in Your timezUp... well, a mintue for You is a Very Long Time (times infinity even...).
Okay GRESHAM Stole That Quote.
Just so you Stupid Saps who-think-they-know-they-think-therefore-play-and-fiddle-as ROME burns agi'n and agi'n AMen said The Mother.. ah those menz thingys there... ><chuckel>< (oops - wipe that smile offa yer face bud !)
This Fourth of JULY (ok titbabies, i won't block black post... {{MA!!! They sai*WHAPupSIDEtheHEAD}}))
Okay. I will play by babysaps titbaby rules.
BUT The Mother says Rome won't be ROME MUCH longer so [put that in your Grass-free pipes and Smokeit.
Also - MA said you kin NOT tell me how close is close enough to stand when speaking, and which way to kNod to say, "YESSA MAssa" and Which way to KnoB to say, "No."
No flock like Home... featherless twit-eaters... no wait. that didn't come out right... okay, wait aminute.
CNOOC, one of China's largest state-run oil and gas producers, has agreed to buy a stake in a Nigerian offshore oil and gas field for
$2.3bn (£1.3bn).
It will buy a 45% stake in the license covering the OML 130 field, which is owned by South Atlantic Petroleum and is in deep water near the Niger Delta.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4594058.stm
"Looking at the 2006 Atlantic season, Weather 2000 said its research, along with atmospheric and oceanographic parameters, are pointing towards a lot of activity. The company said it would not be surprised to see 15-22 named storms, eight-13 hurricanes and four-seven intense hurricanes."
You know, I think bold is beautiful. It makes your posts stand out from everyone else's.
(Billy"SOB" ??? the Honest and Real Sap I presume ? )
regUardless ... so thanks for the stick 'em up post... titbabies pick-pecking their disordered little flock.
soooo many picker of lint and soooo few thinkers left now dayze.
too bad really. skeered straight too late maybe?
thanks again naked friend birdz ;p)