The Oil Drum Celebrates Its First Year Today
Posted by Prof. Goose on March 22, 2006 - 3:37am
To those of you redirected over here from salon.com, welcome...and make sure to check out Stuart's "first time here?" link!
More of my thoughts on our birthday and the "State of The Oil Drum" below the fold.
My personal reflection is that, while TOD is a lot of hard work, it remains one of the most rewarding things with which I have been involved in my life. I am proud of what we do here.
I think we have remained true to our goals: we wanted to establish a community space where honest and informed discourse is rewarded and where both sides of an argument are welcome. We also wanted to establish norms and conditions under which people can explore ideas and learn about and discuss controversial and complex topics.
Most importantly, people can disagree in this space and reason out their differences through collegial persuasion; arguments with empirical evidence and logical reason continue to win the day. We at The Oil Drum will fight to make sure that remains the case, we view that dynamic as vital to the mission of what we do here.
I am amazed by the amount of brain power and positive will here on a daily basis; there are so many smart people with a lot of varying perspectives and approaches--it is gratifying that all of you choose to do that here, with all of us are bringing mind-power to bear on a very complex and interesting set of questions, not for ego's sake, but because we all believe, in our own way, that this "something" actually matters and we need to do hard thinking on the problems we face.
I am always going to be someone who appreciates the tie between the empirical and the world of ideas; if someone can reason and make me question my assumptions or other empirical findings...well, they have created an opportunity for me to learn. And on that I can say with little doubt that this community and its conversations have broadened my horizons. Not because we just parrot what each other says, but also because people present good counterarguments/counterfactuals which challenge our ideas (e.g., Halfin, who proves there is nothing wrong with being a contrarian, as long as you are really good at it).
So, we thank you all for making this work. Please remember that you create and reinforce the norms that shape the environs here. You make this space; without you, it's just blown bandwidth. Thank you for improving on the silence.
In closing, I would like to express a loving thank you to my colleagues. They continue to astound me with their intellect and abilities, all the way from HO with his ability to make the technical quite interesting, Stuart's ability to kill any learning curve, Yankee's bringing of consciousness, awareness, and calming influence, and SuperG constantly improving the quality of the site (and keeping PG calm in his bouts of mania), well, this place just keeps getting better. Add in Dave and his wonderful purposive righteous indignation, peakguy and his articulate involvement, and our newest with Chris and the UK site--which looks to be getting off to a great start, and it seems we have a good foundation for growth and endurance.
Thank you dear people for doing what you do.
Who knows what the future holds other than that change will occur and time will pass. We have guesses, and some of them will be right, some will be wrong. Either way, we will be here while we have the means to keep the lights on and the will to persevere.
We will continue to innovate and improve the site (thanks to SuperG again). Check out the archives, use the search boxes; chances are that there's a lot of content that, because of the blog format, has passed you by at some point. If there's a topic germane to this subject matter, we've probably talked about it. If we haven't, do please bring it our attention. The mailbox is always open for suggestions.
Happy Birthday, TODers. Happy Birthday indeed!
Contact
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Congratulations on the Anniversay!!! Best site on the web. Will keep reading as long as the electricity holds out :-)
Cheers!
this place is not over-run with gun nuts.
Best,
Matt
Great picture of where we might (or could...or will...or inevitably will...or inexorably will) head as oil peaks.
We need more of a sense of humour sometimes here.
Just to thank all the TOD staff for leading this blog/website to what it is today.
Hope we're all still arround in this forum some years from now (maybe on solar/wind run internet).
I thought once about publishing a story ala the John Titor story in which somebody from 200 years in the future says books like "The Party's Over" and magazines like "Mother Earth News" and "Home Power" are their holy texts from the "prophets" as inspired by the gods of warmth and shleter while ads for SUVs are seen as things put out by the evil gods of enviornnmental destruction to trick the people into sacrificing their young for black gold sacrificed to the devil.
Oh yeah and the lexicon and slang would have changed too. "Condoleeza", for instance would be slang for a lying woman while "mission accomplished" would be slang for something planned by a fool. So if you were getting a divorce you might say, "I thought my wife was cheating and I asked her about it and that lying Condoleeza said such and such."
Or something like that.
Best,
Matt
Did I put enough explanation marks behind that?
Here's some more...
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I would like to think that none of us is relishing the "collapse of civilization as we know it."
I just want to make the point on the first anniversary of this site, after attending the Toronto Peak Oil discussion group tonight, that nothing would make that group happier...and this group online...than to be wrong about this? About the dire scenario?
I hope it would.
Keep it going as I would really miss TOD if it went off the air.
You have become a staple in my life and I check the site daily with eager anticipation of the fantastic insights I might gain from all you dedicated bloggers. Thanks for bringing some coherence to an increasingly complicated world.
There are some courses I've been meaning to sign-up for about that at the Foundation Center. Here is a help page they have set-up. I'll email you more PG.
http://www.guerrillanews.com/articles/2180/Exxon_Exxposed
Best,
Matt
Even if you did not go the non-profit route, you could do what BuzzFlash (http://www.buzzflash.com) does and ask for donations or sell PO-related products (I'd love a TOD t-shirt or bumper sticker).
Hope someone in your administrative group has the time to make this work because I think you are on the brink of a larger readership. Why not make some $$ to further the cause? I also don't think it would take much effort to get volunteers to help with this effort.
You won't know unless you ask.
I do find myself hoping that most of the posts on TOD are wrong though, and there's a lot more oil and gas out there just waiting to be discovered, on the other hand manybe this wouldn't be such good news for the environment and the prospects for global meltdown.
Still, this is a day for celebration and optimism, so keep up all the good work and thanks a million!
I copied the text and can't find 'Drum' or 'TOD' or 'Energy Bulletin' or 'PostCarbon'.
I have almost totaly stopped going to the Other yahoo groups for PeakOil info. There is GREAT REAL oil info here, with all Best Knowledge base I have seen in a Long time.
I do tend to post only in certain threads, But I have been here in one form or another for almost the whole year.
Keep up the Good Work.
Suggestion: Thread(s) where people could post short (say five item) annotated lists of their favorite
1. books
2. movies
to help understand Peak Oil or to help with action toward a better society.
This site has been an excellent experiment. Keep pushing hard!
I'm a big fan of Soylent Green. Your post a few weeks ago turned me onto the literary trail. Thank you.
I can't find any John Brunner stuff in the bookstores, hunting down copies of his work is work. Harry Harrison seems to have a few books still in print but they are Civil War alternate histories. I like post apocalyptic fantasy. It reminds me of how much Kunstler is a science fiction writer.
Make Room is an excellent read. I won't say excellent novel, although it is very good. Shows the drawbacks and benefits of Hollywood screenwriters gaining unfettered access to stories that aren't theirs. Soylent Green is very much a better story, but I would have rather seen it on the printed page. Regardless, you let me see that.
The relevance is V for Vendetta. Having intimate knowledge of the original comic, I would support Alan Moore in his claims about the movie which I've just seen(and apparently he hasn't, so I hope he reads this).
Book List:
Carlo D'Este - Decision in Normandy
Warriors - Max Hastings(just noticed this yesterday)
Hastings is the greatest living war historian. Having read every history he has written that I knew about(apparently I've got 2 or 3 more to go, now), there is no reason this would not be great.
Cobra II. Skimmed through it. Looks good. Let others comment. Gordon and Trainor are two you can trust on Iraq. The first Barnes and Noble I went to was sold out with 23 more copies coming in. So expect this one to get play.
Yes, all of this is meant to help you with peak oil.Trust me.
For Sailorman. Have you read Richard Matheson's 'The Beardless Warriors' ?
You can find (I believe) the Brunner books at the great amazon dot company, or if not there at any good used SF bookstore. The two I mentioned were immensely popular.
Perhaps we should also collect and post our favorite graffit. Mine is:
Ecology, the last fad.
'Zardoz' starring Sean Connery.
There is no such thing as an innocent bystander. After all, what were they doing there in the first place? William S. Burroughs
Remember, Once Upon a Time, there was Earth Day, long ago, but not in a galaxy far away.
I have not been around for a few days. I just saw the Halfin/You thing. I have to go back and read it now. You bastards. If there was two of you who should have held out, it was you two. Why do you do this? To help me, I suppose. Break that shit up. You are on the same side. More important goals.
Just this past weekend the state government of Western Australia announced a proposal to require oil companies to retain some natural ags in the North West shelf fields for future generations of West Aussies, a similar proposa to what the Norwegian government has. This proposal flowed from a community group I'm in, and was generated from info obtained from TOD on what is happening in North Sea fields of Norway.
Well done.
OK folks, let's see how many other languages we can have that in.
Thanks TOD for the great information and dialog.
Just to prove that not everyone is yet a believer the BBC has this from The Far Side :) GM increases production of SUVs
I can't believe I have been reading this site for a year. I only regret I can't remember how I came to find it.
Found this site after reading Michael Ruppert's "Crossing the Rubicon" last summer. Was shocked, SHOCKED into reality.
Now can't go a day without checking in on TOD
What a great service ya'll provide! What a phenomenal source of deep information. Happy birthday.
The amount of care and energy (mental not fossil fuel) that goes into TOD is obvious from the quality of the information and comments.
I spend more time on TOD than all the other websites I regularly visit combined.
We should not despair, for I can tell just by the small number of people I've talked to on the subject that the word about our dire energy situation is gradually seeping into the mainstream.
Also wanted to draw your collective attention to the Ontario Ministry of Energy's renewable energy plan, announced yesterday. The provincial government will now pay a standard price for small scale energy providers who tie into the grid. They'll pay 11 cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity generated from wind, biomass or small hydroelectric, and 42 cents for every kilowatt-hour of electricity that comes from small solar electricity systems.
While the initial costs of rooftop solar may still be too steep to win over most people in the suburbs (this article from the Toronto Star estimates as 20 year wait before seeing profits), I think some co-ops and farmers may jump in:
"You've got a farm income challenge? You've got land? We need clean electricity," said Premier McGuinty. "Let's make a deal, and forget that ... complicated process we have for bigger projects."
Of course, this may be, and probably is a statistical blip, but production declines in the vicinity of 50% of Qt worldwide are more worrisome that temporary production declines at around 40% of Qt. Last year, there were only five weeks, out of 52, where we showed imports of less than 9.5 mbpd, and all of them were in September or later.
As I have previously commented on, I believe--based on Khebab's technical work--that we are facing an imminent crisis regarding net export capacity, as the top four net oil exporters--Saudi Arabia; Russia; Norway and Iran--face aggregate increasing domestic demand, combined with falling production. Note that car sales in Russia in 2005 were up 15% year over year, just as oil production growth compared to prior years slowed dramatically. (Currently, Russian oil production is only up about 1.5% year over year. I suspect that net oil exports are already falling.)
Congratulations on the first year! We certainly live in "interesting times."
When I first encountered the site I was practicaly overwhelmed by the amount of work you people did to produce such high quality posts. And not less than that - by the quality of the discussions.
Having said that, it is no surprise that TOD is quickly becoming a socially significant place. It is of course a great thing, but I imagine is making it hard to keep with the high standards we've set by ourselves.
Keep up the good work!
and a long life. The work done here is awesome. I hope it will enable a peaceful shift from oil to whatever will come afer.
The formula is right: sharp but respectful debate and exchange based on -- and this is what makes it a subversive site -- reality, i.e. data, facts. Actually, respectful debate is also subversive. Your whole damn formula is subversive! Cheez.
TOD. I don't know of any other site where
such indepth analysys is so accessible.
A big thank you to the guys that do so
much work to make it happen.
Great. Keep it up. We are in for a very
interesting year..... huricanes, tropical
cyclones, gas shortages, budgetary blow-outs
.... and a few surprises, I'm sure.
Thank you all!
Now I sense the big storm coming; only I do not know just how it will manifest, where it will show up first, or how to prepare. My plans and efforts have changed radically, and most of my thoughts now are towards preparing as best I can. I often feel I have so much to learn and do, and that I've gotten an awfully late start.
There are a few web sites I rely on for information, confirmation, and sometimes commiseration. TOD is not the first of these that I found, but it is by far the best. The level of discourse is generally very high - it is a pleasure to deal with people who are so knowledgeable, and able to communicate well. The standards of TOD have made me critical of other sites and news sources, where statements are not backed up, and no depth is provided. As an example, I watched a program the other day that quoted the rate of occurrence of a particular variable, in relation to its average. And I was thinking, yeah, but "what is the standard deviation, how do I know if that really means anything? If someone posted this on TOD they'd get their head handed to them - politely, perhaps, but nonetheless!".
So keep up the good work - in the last several months I've continued to evolve my expectations of what the future will hold, and what technologies/strategies/approaches will be beneficial - including what the target should even be.
Speech, speech, speech! Prognosticate! Crystal ball-ize!
Where will TOD be in another year?
Where will we on the planet be in another year?
Will oil reach $100.00 per barrel in the next 12 months?
(Explain your answer: why or why not?)
What will the effect of the "peak oil" movement be in the next 12 months?
Will the "peak oil" activism evolve and merge with other activist efforts related to resource depletion, world peace, and human sustainability upon the planet earth, or Tralmafadore, or elsewhere?
PG, Stuart, Dave, HO, and all -- speeeeeech! :)
A great big thanks to you -- Beggar (AKA -- Gary)
First, the increasing energy costs has lit a fire under a lot of energy conservation / environmental / anti-auto proposals that have been sitting on the shelf for the last 30 years.
Second, peak oil adherents have few options in an organization that is planning for all aspects of this, besides Post-Carbon, which is ramping up. Instead I think they will start to infiltrate many of these other activist groups in an effort to take action locally.
Third, as peak oil goes mainstream, it will moderate somewhat from the Ruppert and Kunstler folks and become more politically palatable to the average person. The trick will be to maintain vigilence against one trick solutions at the national level since they will probably be snake oil. I think the best answers will lie in local government, businesses and community groups taking action together to prepare for a high cost energy future.
And I think TOD will continue to be THE place to analytically pressure test some of the local energy solutions we will start to consider over the next year!
There is no way, and I mean NO WAY, to make the reality of our predicament politically palatable without basically lying to people. Lets' say we (through some miracle) mangage to transition to a peaceful society based on renewable energy. In the interim, pretty much every person in WEstern society today gets to kiss their petroleum- based, growth-dependent hopes and dreams goodbye. I can't see how you can make that a palatable message but I'm willing to hear some ideas.
Right now we are spening (I reckon) $1,000 or more on oil/natural gas and defending it for every $1 we spend on getting away from oil and natural gas dependence. If you follow the damn money!" it leads you to some inescably horrific and dark conclusions about where our society is heading. How can you with a straight face tell people to ignore where the capital (energy) in our society is flowing? Making things "politiclaly palatable" means you're going to have to at the very least lie through omission to people.
(Please note I suspect the ratio of money spent on oil and protecting the oil versus getting off oil is far beyond $1,000 to $1)
Even the more optimistic wings of our "movement" will admit (when pressed) there is almost no way we're not going to see a significant reduction in both global population and per-capita wealth as the fossil-fuel and growth dependent systems of finance, agriculture and transport begin go into cascading systems failure. There is no way to make that a "feel-good" message, which is what you're going to have to do to make it "politically palatable."
I'm personally tired of being bullshitted about the future, even by well-meaning people. If the capital in our society is overwhelmingly leading towards a dystopic "Mad Max" future I would rather people be upfront with me about that than attempt to make things "politically palatable."
Are we in this to be popular or are we in this to do reality-based analysis?
Best,
Matt
Best,
Matt
If young adults today think that "Reality Bites" because they are over-educated for their jobs, wait until they get laid-off from them...
Happy TOD Birthday to all! Great job by all concerned!
SUBJECT CHANGE:
Matt Savinar is 100% correct. I propose the first thing our govt should do is setup a scientific commission that is heartless and ruthless and TRUTHFUL in assessing TOTAL ERoEI in every Powerdown proposal. Give them billions if required. Get the best geniuses from all these forums, books, etc. Pay them big bucks--no corruption allowed, period! Jay Hanson, Heinberg, Savinar, Simmons, J. Diamond, Stuart Staniford, C. Campbell et al-- find the best damn people on the planet, protect them with the US Seventh Fleet if required-- but their decisions are Law. They will be invested with the power of PLANETARY GAME MANAGERS to optimize the DIEOFF bottleneck. Govts compelled by their proles to make them adhere to the TRUE TOPDOGS.
This should be a thread in its own right. Let 'er rip,TODers!
Hey Matt--I got your back. Problem is: I am a much worse shot than Cheney!
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I find your idea of a scientific commission to be quite reasonable. I further propose the members of the commission be provided with the most attractive young women (or men if anybody lives in or around Brokeback Mountain, I certainly have never been there. Not that I there's a problem with those who do reside there). This guarantees the wisest and most rational genes are passed into future generations. It's really the only hope we have.
Best,
Matt
P.S.
I have a strange feeling Stuart will agree with me on this matter.
Thxs for responding. Whatever it takes to become optimally sustainable on our little blue marble. The Bottleneck not only has to squeeze humans thru, but as many other lifeforms and mineral resources. If the Topdogs say 250 million max worldwide in twenty years-- so be it. A Cause worth dying for. If they decide a nuclear gift exchange MUST BE prevented, and the only way to do it is by releasing SMALLPOX again-- I want them to do it. The future belongs to the young--WILL WE EVER LEARN?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Obviously, 250 million in a twenty year timeframe, in my earlier example, may be the worst case scenario if the world does not Powerdown, but choses the Last Person Standing Scenario of 'Nuke their Ass--I want Gas'. I would hope that 'No Thanks--I like Empty Tanks' stickers on bicycles is what lies ahead, along with all it implies.
I would prefer, along with everyone else: 6.5 billion still alive in twenty years, but then a carefully concerted worldwide program to population match with the Hubbert Energy Downslope and a greatly reduced extinction rate of other lifeforms. If possible, additional measures to reduce Global Warming.
Hopefully, on this one year birthday of TOD-- We are taking the first steps to gather the essential info and grow a 'critical mass' of membership to change the world. I would love to see, most of all: Bush, Cheney, Blair, Putin, and other world leaders post comments. I truly believe they have personnel watching.
Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
To bring the "scientific commission" idea back into play, we need to note seriously that we humans have a huge need to get back in touch with reality before reality gets back in touch with us.
Men and women of good will do post here and attempt to understand, evaluate, and analyze the mountains of data and disinformation sloshing around the stormy tub of human discourse. (There's an awful metaphor. Sorry.)
My sense is that this forum and others like it will stimulate the kind of actions Matt and others have in mind, but on many levels and in many places. Perhaps this is the best possible outcome.
Some coordinated, centralised effort to guide the process of powerdown is going to be necessary, but my sense is that such a centralised agency will be overwhelmed by any number of variables. Global climate change is the tsunami rolling in just behind peak oil, peak water, peak soil, and the like. Many regional and local groups will find that they must fend for themselves unexpectedly. Reconnections will be possible along the way.
I don't think that it is likely that any global governing agency will be able to coordinate powerdown for long, although a centralised effort to prepare for the decentralisation is a real good idea.
More free and careful conversations in cyber and local meeting places are the most important agents of change, I think. Global and local conversation, local action, bringing the results back to the conversation for evaluation, and more action. Isn't that the best approach? Invite people to join in, model the process, and learn from others as well.
My family and I are buying a modest urban house in Minneapolis (MN, USA), and hope to install solar water heat, begin permacultural gardening, and make some other funky, crunchy changes toward powerdown. Meanwhile, I'll continue to pedal my cargo trikes and pedicabs and perhaps work on some designs with hopes to manufacture such machines locally with local resources, customised to needs in our particular bioregion and city.
Feeding and nurturing a couple of kids is a handful, and so participation in sites such as this is a rare and precious gift for me. I read and post as I can, but always must squeeze it in between work, parenting, and such. This site is a lifeline for those of us trying to understand the critical issues of our day so as to live well-examined lives.
Of course, one has to mess around, good off, and make a few mistakes as well!
The TOD conversation is vital.
I agree. The best use of government and complex technology now would be to prepare for a powerdown.
Whether it's politically possible is a whole 'nother story, of course, but we can only try.
By the way, here's a link to an interesting piece on the derivatives market from the Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/03/18/cngm18.xml&menuId=242&sShe et=/money/2006/03/18/ixcitytop.html
March 22, 2006
1309 Hours
Comrades;
Yes, happy birthday, indeed! Like so many other folks who patronize this site, over the short time I have been coming around here, I have learned a great deal about the oil and energy industries, as well as something about human nature. I greatly value all of you who contribute to the reasoned and informed debate I find here, and it is a breath of fresh air when compared to the usual lunacy of the blogosphere. TOD...You guys kick ass!
Right then. Changing the subject...
I have a question or two, and if you would be so kind as to assist me, I would be greatly in your debt. Around my part of the country (Central Virginia) we got us some politicians who are touting, among other things, bio fuels...specifically, switch grass...as an alternative fuel that we should be investing heavily in. Personally, I think they are pedaling the modern day equivalent of snake oil. Am I right to think this, or are their serious problems promoting biofuels in anything other than very small scale, localised production. It would seem to me that not only would the energy inputs be taxing (how much in the way of NG based fertilizer, petroluem based pesticides or deisel fuel for tractors would be used) but we would also be at the viscitudes and venal winds of a vile nature (Yes, I did see "V for Vendetta" and recommend it heartily. No mention of Peak Oil in it though....), to whit, the current drought under which so much of our country is under right now. In short, if it don't rain, you can plant as much switchgrass as you want, but it's still a failed crop. Unless you irrigate it. In which case you need power for the pumps, which takes more energy...
You see where I am going with this?
I would greatly appreciate any other perspectives or information regarding this matter. Please tell me how I am wrong here. I want to know.
Your most humble servant,
Subkommander Dred
www.subkommanderdred.blogspot.com
"Most importantly, people can disagree in this space and reason out their differences through collegial persuasion; arguments with empirical evidence and logical reason continue to win the day. We at The Oil Drum will fight to make sure that remains the case, we view that dynamic as vital to the mission of what we do here."
You've nailed it with this paragraph, Prof.
I don't know whether it's because so many regular posters are engineers and/or scientists, but there seems to be a tacit understanding at TOD that losing your cool or arguing a point without either good reasoning or data to back you up will get you little respect or response.
Due to the skills and depth of knowledge required to argue a position, I imagine many readers are too intimidated to post here, and in my view this is a good thing. I have visited TOD practically every day for the past nine months, and I think this is my fourth comment. I haven't the technical background to make any meaningful contribution to the debate, but I have learned a tremendous amount from the input of other members. Kudos to you all.
Congratulations on building a magnificent resource, and I hope you manage to maintain TOD's present integrity as its popularity increases, as it most surely will.
Happy birthday to you,
Happy birthday dear The Oil Drum,
Happy birthday to you!
And many more years of brilliant service to Earth and humanity!
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO TOD for a first year with many interesting topics. We clearly live in interesting times.
Hopefully many more insightfull discussions will follow in the years to caome.
HUBBERT vs NPD for NCS
Below is a link to a Norwegian blogspot "Kveldssong for hydrokaronar" i.e. "Evening song for Hydrocarbons" that as of 20. March presented and discussed a production profile for regular oil derived from Hubbert's Linearization (HL) versus actual data as of 2005 and a forecast towards 2010 from NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) for NCS (Norwegian Continental Shelf).
As from the start of oil production from NCS till now, the actual production from NCS has closely followed a perfect Hubbert curve.
The commentary has a diagram which should be self-explanatory and that is clickable for a larger version.
http://energikrise.blogspot.com/
In short the forecast using the Hubbert's method predicts a production of approx. 1,6 Mb/d (regular) oil versus the forecast from NPD as of 12. January 2006 predicts 2,5 Mb/d by 2010, this translates into a difference of 0,9 Mb/d by 2010. The two predictions agree upon predicted production for 2006, but from there they diverge significantly.
The cumulative difference between the two profiles is approximately 900 Mb for the years 2007-2010 (stated in the text).
Which of the two predictions do you believe comes closest to actual figures?
Perhaps the NPD profile could be further challenged and discussed here at "The Oil Drum" in its second year?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060322/ap_on_bi_ge/norway_oil_exploration_1;_ylt=AhoEuzgZkanCS6EzfFtZGx KAsnsA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
I also recall a dry NCS wildcat by Exxon announced about 3 weeks ago. Major problems finding new oil in Norwegian seas.
I guess this is as good a time as any to step out of the shadows.
This is pretty much the only site I come to for peak oil info and serious discussion.
It's not easy being one of the very few people in the NZ government that take the 'end of cheap oil' (as we have to call it) seriously. You have no idea how much it has helped having this site as a resource.
Keep up the great work.
Welcome aboard. TOD gets about 7000 unique visits a day and has 2200 registered accounts. I don't know how many people in total read the site, but it's great when people step out of the shadows and say hello.
That said, I'm sure many people who view the site who do not comment could make meaningful contributions. Don't be shy! And as for those who already do comment, I am greatly appreciative of all their contributions--even people who think Peak Oil is nonsense. Sometimes a comment conveys some really interesting stuff and sends me off and I'll post something about it if I can.
Special thanks to SuperG who makes all this possible. I've run a few websites and I know what a pain in the ass it truly is. As for the other editors, I sent them an e-mail. TOD is definitely "the best of the web". Now I've got one more addiction than I had before. Now if I could just kick this crack cocaine-like oil habit, I could be free!
best to all of you, Dave
Are you an MP of our wonderful country, or just a minion behind the scenes?
In either case, I would like to say this to you.
Regardless of where you fit on the political spectrum I strongly urge you to stand up and do whatever you can to push the Peak Oil issue into the mainstream.
You have 2 and a half years to make a difference in this great country, and with some of the utterly stupid policies flying around, we need all the people we can get to help change course.
There is very little time to turn the steering wheel, but more hands on the wheel will help it turn quicker. Please make a difference by coming out from the shadows and shouting to all and sundry about the predicament the world, and NZ, is facing.
While you may face ridicule at first (although I doubt it now), remember the Gandhi quote "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."
Stand up and be counted!
It's a bit like the situation when you find out that your friend's spouse is having an affair. If you tell your friend you might get blamed for their break-up, but if the friend finds out that you knew about it and didn't tell them, then you've lost their friendship as well. I wish I could remember what the standard agony aunt response to this dilemna was.
hurricanes and have since been visiting daily.
Keep up the great work. For me, PO wasn't
even on the radar screen. After reading all
the books, spending way to much time on the net
and having my daughters tell me "Why should we
stay in college if we are going back to the
stone age ?", TOD has giving me and my employees time to
prepare for what is coming.
Sailorman, I enjoy reading your posts,
especially the comment on the TIP's.
That little nugget of info has been very useful.
Thanks again TOD and yes, we live in interesting
times
Happy Birthday TOD
Quick question: Is anyone trying to get peer-reviewed articles published on any of the topics discussed? I realize that ProfGoose and HO may be doing this but don't want to reveal their identities, but maybe Stuart or others?
And Happy Birthday to this site, which I visit frequently. I first learned of "Peak Oil" and this site from BOPNews last May and have been a regular and frequent visitor ever since. In the wake and mess of my "coffee spitting moment," I found realiable answers and reasoned discourse here. Paradoxically, I also learned that the situation might be not as bad as I feared, i.e. "slow squeeze," and potentially more devastating than I initially realzied over the long term. Thanks.
An interesting bit of info from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/energy.html
Chevron's Deepest Well, in the Gulf of Mexico, Has Less Oil Than Predicted
March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp.'s Knotty Head discovery, the deepest well ever drilled in the Gulf of Mexico, holds about half as much oil and natural gas as originally estimated, said Nexen Inc., a partner in the project.
Keepin' it real for a whole year, congrats.
Perhaps TOD is a microcosm. It has happened wonderfully but probably too late. I don't really know the future for sure but I feel we have run out of 'manouvering room'.
I think TOD will exist as long as the internet, since it is probably the most important site on it atm. Unfortunately I guess that folks like Step Back and Cherenkov are closest to the truth: we are stupid monkeys and have gone beyond our sustainable limits.
The next few decades will probably be a testing time for our species, success ( = survival) will probably demand profound changes in how we function. I really don't have any idea how that will play out, but we are sometimes smart and extraordinarily adaptable monkeys. Unfortunately a decent amount of wisdom may be needed and we aren't so hot on that.
Happy 1st, TOD. I will be even happier if you are here in 5 years' time.
Thank you for providing me with lots of useful information. I hope I have added a bit in return to the collective.
I can now argue better with the general public about Peak Oil, but even though they might just about believe in it, because the government are not mentioning or doing anything about it, they don't consider it important or don't think it will affect them personally.
well done everyone involved with TOD.
I look forward to lots more informative discussion and debate over the coming year!
and great humour, of many colours...