The Oil Drum Celebrates Its First Year Today

That's right, TOD is one year old today! Right on cue, was nice enough to send us a present to start it off (watch an ad, read the story) article on peak oil that mentions The Oil Drum, Matt Savinar, JH Kunstler, Rich Heinberg, Energy Bulletin, Jason Bradford, PostCarbon, and the whole cast of characters from peak oil blogistan who have inspired or influenced us in many positive ways. We are proud to be a part of it.

To those of you redirected over here from, welcome...and make sure to check out Stuart's "first time here?" link!

More of my thoughts on our birthday and the "State of The Oil Drum" below the fold.

When HO and I started this thing, I think we knew that what we were talking about mattered quite a bit. Still, I don't think any of us, even after Yankee, SuperG, and Stuart came on board, ever anticipated that The Oil Drum would become what it is today. We didn't think we'd average 7000ish unique visits a day. We didn't think we'd have 2200 registered accounts. We just wanted talk about the subjects we thought were important. And, it that regard, has been a fascinating and dynamic year. We have seen a lot and learned so much.

My personal reflection is that, while TOD is a lot of hard work, it remains one of the most rewarding things with which I have been involved in my life. I am proud of what we do here.

I think we have remained true to our goals: we wanted to establish a community space where honest and informed discourse is rewarded and where both sides of an argument are welcome. We also wanted to establish norms and conditions under which people can explore ideas and learn about and discuss controversial and complex topics.

Most importantly, people can disagree in this space and reason out their differences through collegial persuasion; arguments with empirical evidence and logical reason continue to win the day. We at The Oil Drum will fight to make sure that remains the case, we view that dynamic as vital to the mission of what we do here.

I am amazed by the amount of brain power and positive will here on a daily basis; there are so many smart people with a lot of varying perspectives and approaches--it is gratifying that all of you choose to do that here, with all of us are bringing mind-power to bear on a very complex and interesting set of questions, not for ego's sake, but because we all believe, in our own way, that this "something" actually matters and we need to do hard thinking on the problems we face.

I am always going to be someone who appreciates the tie between the empirical and the world of ideas; if someone can reason and make me question my assumptions or other empirical findings...well, they have created an opportunity for me to learn. And on that I can say with little doubt that this community and its conversations have broadened my horizons. Not because we just parrot what each other says, but also because people present good counterarguments/counterfactuals which challenge our ideas (e.g., Halfin, who proves there is nothing wrong with being a contrarian, as long as you are really good at it).

So, we thank you all for making this work. Please remember that you create and reinforce the norms that shape the environs here. You make this space; without you, it's just blown bandwidth. Thank you for improving on the silence.

In closing, I would like to express a loving thank you to my colleagues. They continue to astound me with their intellect and abilities, all the way from HO with his ability to make the technical quite interesting, Stuart's ability to kill any learning curve, Yankee's bringing of consciousness, awareness, and calming influence, and SuperG constantly improving the quality of the site (and keeping PG calm in his bouts of mania), well, this place just keeps getting better. Add in Dave and his wonderful purposive righteous indignation, peakguy and his articulate involvement, and our newest with Chris and the UK site--which looks to be getting off to a great start, and it seems we have a good foundation for growth and endurance.

Thank you dear people for doing what you do.

Who knows what the future holds other than that change will occur and time will pass. We have guesses, and some of them will be right, some will be wrong. Either way, we will be here while we have the means to keep the lights on and the will to persevere.

We will continue to innovate and improve the site (thanks to SuperG again). Check out the archives, use the search boxes; chances are that there's a lot of content that, because of the blog format, has passed you by at some point. If there's a topic germane to this subject matter, we've probably talked about it. If we haven't, do please bring it our attention. The mailbox is always open for suggestions.

Happy Birthday, TODers. Happy Birthday indeed!

Congratulations on the Anniversay!!! Best site on the web. Will keep reading as long as the electricity holds out :-)
same here.
this place is not over-run with gun nuts.
That's because we know guns are a short term strategy only due to the need for oil for making them, lubing them, etc. I'ts going to be bows and arrows, slingshots with stones in them, catapaults for tossing bird flu ravaged corpses into your enemy's strongholdings, etc.



If there is anything I dig about you on this site Matt, it's your bouts of being facetious.

Great picture of where we might (or could...or will...or inevitably will...or inexorably will) head as oil peaks.

We need more of a sense of humour sometimes here.

Congrats. The impact and influence of TOD will simply grow.
"Gratulation" for TOD! This is a very enlighting blog which became my daily source of information about PO and all other energy and climate related topics. Macht weiter so!
Congrats to everyone involved with creating and running The Oil Drum. One of the underlying reasons for the success of this site is its clear readable font and a threading format that allows for the possibility of commenting on comments directly, rather than one after the other in a simple list that many sites use. The continual tweaking of this site during its first year has led to many great innovations. My hat's off to SuperG.
in OH SO MANY ways, Interloafer...SuperG be the man.
Happy Birthday TOD!

Just to thank all the TOD staff for leading this blog/website to what it is today.

Hope we're all still arround in this forum some years from now (maybe on solar/wind run internet).

Assumming the internet exists in 50-100 years, it will be interesting to see what future generations say about sites such as TOD.

I thought once about publishing a story ala the John Titor story in which somebody from 200 years in the future says books like "The Party's Over" and magazines like "Mother Earth News" and "Home Power" are their holy texts from the "prophets" as inspired by the gods of warmth and shleter while ads for SUVs are seen as things put out by the evil gods of enviornnmental destruction to trick the people into sacrificing their young for black gold sacrificed to the devil.

Oh yeah and the lexicon and slang would have changed too. "Condoleeza", for instance would be slang for a lying woman while "mission accomplished" would be slang for something planned by a fool.  So if you were getting a divorce you might say, "I thought my wife was cheating and I asked her about it and that lying Condoleeza said such and such."

Or something like that.



Feliz cumpleaños!
Feliz aniversário!
Tanti auguri di buon compleanno!
Many thanks to all who have worked hard to create this site, and all who have contributed.  The information I have gleaned in the last six months or so have helped turn several years vague disquiet into a coherent (or as coherent as is possible) picture of the overall situation.  The educational articles and links make it possible to learn a great deal about all the various aspects of the problem - and are great ammunition for debating with friends and colleagues.  The more this type of ammo is used, the greater our chances of avoiding the need for the other kind.
Well said. Completely concur with you final sentence.
Happy Birthday TOD - may you contemplate the arrival of the peak for many more years :-)

Did I put enough explanation marks behind that?

Here's some more...

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I would like to think that none of us is relishing the "collapse of civilization as we know it."

Sorry...margin messing there...

I just want to make the point on the first anniversary of this site, after attending the Toronto Peak Oil discussion group tonight, that nothing would make that group happier...and this group online...than to be wrong about this? About the dire scenario?

I hope it would.

I started visiting here during the hurricanes as this site had the most up to date and topical information on the net.  I now visit every day for the balanced, not sensational, information available on Peak Oil.

Keep it going as I would really miss TOD if it went off the air.

Happy Birthday TOD!

You have become a staple in my life and I check the site daily with eager anticipation of the fantastic insights I might gain from all you dedicated bloggers.  Thanks for bringing some coherence to an increasingly complicated world.

Happy.Happy, B-day! Best, Most civil & informative on the web!
Congratulations, and thanks for all the works you guys put into this site.  

You Guys? You've done as much if not more than anyone. Congratulations - You!
Leanan, for goodness sake...give yourself a pat on the back too.  CEO's right.
Thanks!  :)
Congrats to all.  Thanks for the kernels of truth posted here.  It's refreshing given the lack "real" news and analysis in today's MSM.  Now, if you would just gain non-profit status so I can donate some $$ and take it off my taxes....
Does anyone know HOW to set up a non-profit?  How painful is the process? the eds box...
I just did a two weekend course at the United Way about serving on Non-Profit boards. Setting one one does take some effort, but it opens up a world of potential funding sources from individuals and foundations.

There are some courses I've been meaning to sign-up for about that at the Foundation Center. Here is a help page they have set-up. I'll email you more PG.

Yes, I do this all of the time. I suppose the first question is where will the non-profit corporation be incorporated and registered. Then there is the matter of filing for tax-exempt status with the IRS.  I am sure there are other attorney lurking who are at least as or more capable than I am. I will e-mail with details.
Make sure you have somebody reliable to keep the i's crossed the t's dotted if you go that route:



Generally, I think you will have to qualify as some form of non-profit religious, cultural, or educational entity.

Even if you did not go the non-profit route, you could do what BuzzFlash ( does and ask for donations or sell PO-related products (I'd love a TOD t-shirt or bumper sticker).

Hope someone in your administrative group has the time to make this work because I think you are on the brink of a larger readership.  Why not make some $$ to further the cause?  I also don't think it would take much effort to get volunteers to help with this effort.

You won't know unless you ask.

Congratulations on the first year! Thanks for all the interesting and provocative articles. For me TOD functions like an oasis of sanity, rationality and intelligence, in an increasingly delusional world. TOD is a reality check compared to the overwhelming majority of the mainstream, corporate media.

I do find myself hoping that most of the posts on TOD are wrong though, and there's a lot more oil and gas out there just waiting to be discovered, on the other hand manybe this wouldn't be such good news for the environment and  the prospects for global meltdown.

Still, this is a day for celebration and optimism, so keep up all the good work and thanks a million!

Umm, where in that Salon article is TOD mentioned?  

I copied the text and can't find 'Drum' or 'TOD' or 'Energy Bulletin' or 'PostCarbon'.  

Never mind, I found them.  I forgot that Notepad only searches down.
Happy Birthday, TOD.
I have almost totaly stopped going to the Other yahoo groups for PeakOil info.  There is GREAT REAL oil info here, with all Best Knowledge base I have seen in a Long time.
I do tend to post only in certain threads, But I have been here in one form or another for almost the whole year.

Keep up the Good Work.

Thank you and congratulations!

Suggestion: Thread(s) where people could post short (say five item) annotated lists of their favorite
1. books
2. movies

to help understand Peak Oil or to help with action toward a better society.

I second this notion. A good deal of my reading list now comes from books and articles mentioned here.

This site has been an excellent experiment. Keep pushing hard!

Agree. Just finished 'Make Room Make Room' by Harry Harrison.

I'm a big fan of Soylent Green. Your post a few weeks ago turned me onto the literary trail. Thank you.

I can't find any John Brunner stuff in the bookstores, hunting  down copies of his work is work. Harry Harrison seems to have a few books still in print but they are Civil War alternate histories. I like post apocalyptic fantasy. It reminds me of how much Kunstler is a science fiction writer.

Make Room is an excellent read. I won't say excellent novel, although it is very good. Shows the drawbacks and benefits of Hollywood screenwriters gaining unfettered access to stories that aren't theirs. Soylent Green is very much a better story, but I would have rather seen it on the printed page. Regardless, you let me see that.

The relevance is V for Vendetta. Having intimate knowledge of the original comic, I would support Alan Moore in his claims about the movie which I've just seen(and apparently he hasn't, so I hope he reads this).

Book List:

Carlo D'Este - Decision in Normandy

Warriors - Max Hastings(just noticed this yesterday)
Hastings is the greatest living war historian. Having read every history he has written that I knew about(apparently I've got 2 or 3 more to go, now), there is no reason this would not be great.

Cobra II. Skimmed through it. Looks good. Let others comment. Gordon and Trainor are two you can trust on Iraq. The first Barnes and Noble I went to was sold out with 23 more copies coming in. So expect this one to get play.

Yes, all of this is meant to help you with peak oil.Trust me.

For Sailorman. Have you read Richard Matheson's 'The Beardless Warriors' ?

Yup. I think I have read everything Richard Matheson ever published.

You can find (I believe) the Brunner books at the great amazon dot company, or if not there at any good used SF bookstore. The two I mentioned were immensely popular.

Perhaps we should also collect and post our favorite graffit. Mine is:

Ecology, the last fad.

Ecology, the last fad. Yes, I like that. But where is it from?  missed it.

'Zardoz' starring Sean Connery.

There is no such thing as an innocent bystander. After all, what were they doing there in the first place? William S. Burroughs

"Ecology, the last fad" was #1 graffito on men's room stall walls c. 1965-70 at U.C., Berkeley.

Remember, Once Upon a Time, there was Earth Day, long ago, but not in a galaxy far away.

That is great. I never figured that. True Animal House. Although it doesn't sound it.

I have not been around for a few days. I just saw the Halfin/You thing. I have to go back and read it now. You bastards. If there was two of you who should have held out, it was you two. Why do you do this? To help me, I suppose. Break that shit up. You are on the same side. More important goals.

Happy Birthday TOD, and thank you for all the hard work to make it possible!  I've only been hanging out here for a few months, but have found this to be an important source of information on Peak Oil and all the related issues.  It is, indeed, the best site on the web.  Good work!
One of the great things about TOD is the sharing of info from around the world- helps us all get a better feel for the jigsaw that is 'peak oil'.

Just this past weekend the state government of Western Australia announced a proposal to require oil companies to retain some natural ags in the North West shelf fields for future generations of West Aussies, a similar proposa to what the Norwegian government has. This proposal flowed from a community group I'm in, and was generated from info obtained from TOD on what is happening in North Sea fields of Norway.

Well done.

Alles Gute zum Geburtstag!

OK folks, let's see how many other languages we can have that in.

Thanks TOD for the great information and dialog.

Per molts anys!
Gratulerer med dagen !!!
 Tout le bien à l'anniversaire!
Congratulations and thanks for the education. For me it has been a vertical learning curve but I'm glad I found you.
Just to prove that not everyone is yet a believer the BBC has this from The Far Side :) GM increases production of SUVs
That Salon article is pretty darned good.  Looks like they put a lot of work into it.  
Yeah, it is good. I've been responding to Salon's environmental articles for a while now, asking them to acknowledge peak oil. They finally did, and I just renewed my membership there because of it.
Congratulations and Happy Birthday and we all hope many more.
I can't believe I have been reading this site for a year. I only regret I can't remember how I came to find it.
Bravo and Kudos!
Found this site after reading Michael Ruppert's "Crossing the Rubicon" last summer. Was shocked, SHOCKED into reality.  
 Now can't go a day without checking in on TOD
What a great service ya'll provide!  What a phenomenal source of deep information.  Happy birthday.
Happy Birthday, TOD!

The amount of care and energy (mental not fossil fuel) that goes into TOD is obvious from the quality of the information and comments.

I spend more time on TOD than all the other websites I regularly  visit combined.

We should not despair, for I can tell just by the small number of people I've talked to on the subject that the word about our dire energy situation is gradually seeping into the mainstream.  

Congratulations to TOD. Blessings on all who sail in her.

Also wanted to draw your collective attention to the Ontario Ministry of Energy's renewable energy plan, announced yesterday. The provincial government will now pay a standard price for small scale energy providers who tie into the grid. They'll pay 11 cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity generated from wind, biomass or small hydroelectric, and 42 cents for every kilowatt-hour of electricity that comes from small solar electricity systems.

While the initial costs of rooftop solar may still be too steep to win over most people in the suburbs (this article from the Toronto Star estimates as 20 year wait before seeing profits), I think some co-ops and farmers may jump in:

"You've got a farm income challenge? You've got land? We need clean electricity," said Premier McGuinty. "Let's make a deal, and forget that ... complicated process we have for bigger projects."

The EIA showed a contraction in crude oil inventories--which counts all grades of crude, from very heavy, sour to light, sweet--last week, primarily because of a fall in imports to 9.3 mbpd.  

Of course, this may be, and probably is a statistical blip, but production declines in the vicinity of 50% of Qt worldwide are more worrisome that temporary production declines at around 40% of Qt.   Last year, there were only five weeks, out of 52, where we showed imports of less than 9.5 mbpd, and all of them were in September or later.

As I have previously commented on, I believe--based on Khebab's technical work--that we are facing an imminent crisis regarding net export capacity, as the top four net oil exporters--Saudi Arabia; Russia; Norway and Iran--face aggregate increasing domestic demand, combined with falling production.   Note that car sales in Russia in 2005 were up 15% year over year, just as oil production growth compared to prior years slowed dramatically.  (Currently, Russian oil production is only up about 1.5% year over year.  I suspect that net oil exports are already falling.)

Congratulations on the first year!  We certainly live in "interesting times."

Happy Birthday, and many thanks to you all!

When I first encountered the site I was practicaly overwhelmed by the amount of work you people did to produce such high quality posts. And not less than that - by the quality of the discussions.

Having said that, it is no surprise that TOD is quickly becoming a socially significant place. It is of course a great thing, but I imagine is making it hard to keep with the high standards we've set by ourselves.

Keep up the good work!

Happy birthday TOD! and congratulations for the amazing quality of your work.
Bon anniversaire,

and a long life. The work done here is awesome. I hope it will enable a peaceful shift from oil to whatever will come afer.

Happy birthday!

The formula is right: sharp but respectful debate and exchange based on -- and this is what makes it a subversive site -- reality, i.e. data, facts. Actually, respectful debate is also subversive. Your whole damn formula is subversive! Cheez.

Can anyone help me? I think I'm addicted to
TOD. I don't know of any other site where
such indepth analysys is so accessible.

A big thank you to the guys that do so
much work to make it happen.

Great. Keep it up. We are in for a very
interesting year..... huricanes, tropical
cyclones, gas shortages, budgetary blow-outs
.... and a few surprises, I'm sure.

Happy birthday TOD!  I think I discovered you on Energy, also a great site for PO news.  I've passed you on to all my enlightened & unenlightened family/friends.  Your credibility has been a boon when presenting the PO scenario to those poor deluded dears who still live in McWorld.  I'll be a loyal follower until the electricity goes and I no longer have time to websurf due to the demands of my homestead.  :-)

Thank you all!

Happy 1st Birthday to TOD & best wishes to all who visit here.  It'll be interesting to see where things stand when the next birthday rolls around.  
A sincere thank you to all involved with this site!  I read TOD several times a day, every day.  Not so long ago I still thought of the future with at least some level of hope and optimism - had some expectation of achieving the things I wanted, plans of "someday" when the kids had grown up (not that I'm hurrying that!), and I could relax a bit.  

Now I sense the big storm coming; only I do not know just how it will manifest, where it will show up first, or how to prepare.  My plans and efforts have changed radically, and most of my thoughts now are towards preparing as best I can.  I often feel I have so much to learn and do, and that I've gotten an awfully late start.  

There are a few web sites I rely on for information, confirmation, and sometimes commiseration.  TOD is not the first of these that I found, but it is by far the best.  The level of discourse is generally very high - it is a pleasure to deal with people who are so knowledgeable, and able to communicate well.  The standards of TOD have made me critical of other sites and news sources, where statements are not backed up, and no depth is provided.  As an example, I watched a program the other day that quoted the rate of occurrence of a particular variable, in relation to its average.  And I was thinking, yeah, but "what is the standard deviation, how do I know if that really means anything?  If someone posted this on TOD they'd get their head handed to them - politely, perhaps, but nonetheless!".  

So keep up the good work - in the last several months I've continued to evolve my expectations of what the future will hold, and what technologies/strategies/approaches will be beneficial - including what the target should even be.


Speech, speech, speech! Prognosticate! Crystal ball-ize!

Where will TOD be in another year?

Where will we on the planet be in another year?

Will oil reach $100.00 per barrel in the next 12 months?
(Explain your answer: why or why not?)

What will the effect of the "peak oil" movement be in the next 12 months?

Will the "peak oil" activism evolve and merge with other activist efforts related to resource depletion, world peace, and human sustainability upon the planet earth, or Tralmafadore, or elsewhere?

PG, Stuart, Dave, HO, and all -- speeeeeech!  :)

A great big thanks to you -- Beggar (AKA -- Gary)

In terms of your last question, IMHO I think peak oil is merging with other activist agendas.

First, the increasing energy costs has lit a fire under a lot of energy conservation / environmental / anti-auto proposals that have been sitting on the shelf for the last 30 years.

Second, peak oil adherents have few options in an organization that is planning for all aspects of this, besides Post-Carbon, which is ramping up. Instead I think they will start to infiltrate many of these other activist groups in an effort to take action locally.

Third, as peak oil goes mainstream, it will moderate somewhat from the Ruppert and Kunstler folks and become more politically palatable to the average person. The trick will be to maintain vigilence against one trick solutions at the national level since they will probably be snake oil. I think the best answers will lie in local government, businesses and community groups taking action together to prepare for a high cost energy future.

And I think TOD will continue to be THE place to analytically pressure test some of the local energy solutions we will start to consider over the next year!

"Politically palatable" really means "full of lies, omissions, and bullshit" if we're honest with ourselves.

There is no way, and I mean NO WAY, to make the reality of our predicament politically palatable without basically lying to people. Lets' say we (through some miracle) mangage to transition to a peaceful society based on renewable energy. In the interim, pretty much every person in WEstern society today gets to kiss their petroleum- based, growth-dependent hopes and dreams goodbye.  I can't see how you can make that a palatable message but I'm willing to hear some ideas.

Right now we are spening (I reckon) $1,000 or more on oil/natural gas and defending it for every $1 we spend on getting away from oil and natural gas dependence. If you follow the damn money!" it leads you to some inescably horrific and dark conclusions about where our society is heading. How can you with a straight face tell people to ignore where the capital (energy) in our society is flowing?  Making things "politiclaly palatable" means you're going to have to at the very least lie through omission to people.  

(Please note I suspect the ratio of money spent on oil and protecting the oil versus getting off oil is far beyond $1,000 to $1)

Even the more optimistic wings of our "movement" will admit (when pressed) there is almost no way we're not going to see a significant reduction in both global population and per-capita wealth as the fossil-fuel and growth dependent systems of finance, agriculture and transport begin go into cascading systems failure. There is no way to make that a "feel-good" message, which is what you're going to have to do to make it "politically palatable."

I'm personally tired of being bullshitted about the future, even by well-meaning people.  If the capital in our society is overwhelmingly leading towards a dystopic "Mad Max" future I would rather people be upfront with me about that than attempt to make things "politically palatable."

Are we in this to be popular or are we in this to do reality-based analysis?



Should add a smiley =) or something to the above post. Point is I want to know as much truth as I can stomach, not be fed "politically palatable" visions of the future and ideas. Those pass through me and end up in the composting toilet although there is some indigestion on the way down.



Yeah, If there is ever a generation that knows it is being lied to by everyone, it's ours. Who can blame them for becoming individualistic and selfish? It's a pure defense against all the BS around them. The problem is that they become cynical to everything, including PO. How do we break through the clutter with Reality?

If young adults today think that "Reality Bites" because they are over-educated for their jobs, wait until they get laid-off from them...

Hello TODers,

Happy TOD Birthday to all! Great job by all concerned!


Matt Savinar is 100% correct.  I propose the first thing our govt should do is setup a scientific commission that is heartless and ruthless and TRUTHFUL in assessing TOTAL ERoEI in every Powerdown proposal.  Give them billions if required.  Get the best geniuses from all these forums, books, etc.  Pay them big bucks--no corruption allowed, period!  Jay Hanson, Heinberg, Savinar, Simmons, J. Diamond, Stuart Staniford, C. Campbell et al-- find the best damn people on the planet, protect them with the US Seventh Fleet if required-- but their decisions are Law.  They will be invested with the power of PLANETARY GAME MANAGERS to optimize the DIEOFF bottleneck.  Govts compelled by their proles to make them adhere to the TRUE TOPDOGS.

This should be a thread in its own right.  Let 'er rip,TODers!

Hey Matt--I got your back.  Problem is: I am a much worse shot than Cheney!

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?


I find your idea of a scientific commission to be quite reasonable. I further propose the members of the commission be provided with the most attractive young women (or men if anybody lives in or around Brokeback Mountain, I certainly have never been there. Not that I there's a problem with those who do reside there). This guarantees the wisest and most rational genes are passed into future generations.  It's really the only hope we have.  




I have a strange feeling Stuart will agree with me on this matter.

Hello Matt,

Thxs for responding.  Whatever it takes to become optimally sustainable on our little blue marble.  The Bottleneck not only has to squeeze humans thru, but as many other lifeforms and mineral resources.  If the Topdogs say 250 million max worldwide in twenty years-- so be it.  A Cause worth dying for.   If they decide a nuclear gift exchange MUST BE prevented, and the only way to do it is by releasing SMALLPOX again-- I want them to do it.  The future belongs to the young--WILL WE EVER LEARN?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Hello TODers,

Obviously, 250 million in a twenty year timeframe, in my earlier example, may be the worst case scenario if the world does not Powerdown, but choses the Last Person Standing Scenario of 'Nuke their Ass--I want Gas'.  I would hope that 'No Thanks--I like Empty Tanks' stickers on bicycles is what lies ahead, along with all it implies.

I would prefer, along with everyone else: 6.5 billion still alive in twenty years, but then a carefully concerted worldwide program to population match with the Hubbert Energy Downslope and a greatly reduced extinction rate of other lifeforms.  If possible, additional measures to reduce Global Warming.

Hopefully, on this one year birthday of TOD-- We are taking the first steps to gather the essential info and grow a 'critical mass' of membership to change the world.  I would love to see, most of all: Bush, Cheney, Blair, Putin, and other world leaders post comments.  I truly believe they have personnel watching.

Time will tell.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Yeah, obviously, since women aren't ever scientists, and certainly don't pass any genes onto their offspring.  :-P
Good point, Leanan.

To bring the "scientific commission" idea back into play, we need to note seriously that we humans have a huge need to get back in touch with reality before reality gets back in touch with us.

Men and women of good will do post here and attempt to understand, evaluate, and analyze the mountains of data and disinformation sloshing around the stormy tub of human discourse.  (There's an awful metaphor. Sorry.)

My sense is that this forum and others like it will stimulate the kind of actions Matt and others have in mind, but on many levels and in many places.  Perhaps this is the best possible outcome.

Some coordinated, centralised effort to guide the process of powerdown is going to be necessary, but my sense is that such a centralised agency will be overwhelmed by any number of variables.  Global climate change is the tsunami rolling in just behind peak oil, peak water, peak soil, and the like.  Many regional and local groups will find that they must fend for themselves unexpectedly. Reconnections will be possible along the way.

I don't think that it is likely that any global governing agency will be able to coordinate powerdown for long, although a centralised effort to prepare for the decentralisation is a real good idea.

More free and careful conversations in cyber and local meeting places are the most important agents of change, I think.  Global and local conversation, local action, bringing the results back to the conversation for evaluation, and more action.  Isn't that the best approach? Invite people to join in, model the process, and learn from others as well.

My family and I are buying a modest urban house in Minneapolis (MN, USA), and hope to install solar water heat, begin permacultural gardening, and make some other funky, crunchy changes toward powerdown.  Meanwhile, I'll continue to pedal my cargo trikes and pedicabs and perhaps work on some designs with hopes to manufacture such machines locally with local resources, customised to needs in our particular bioregion and city.

Feeding and nurturing a couple of kids is a handful, and so participation in sites such as this is a rare and precious gift for me.  I read and post as I can, but always must squeeze it in between work, parenting, and such.  This site is a lifeline for those of us trying to understand the critical issues of our day so as to live well-examined lives.

Of course, one has to mess around, good off, and make a few mistakes as well!

The TOD conversation is vital.

a centralised effort to prepare for the decentralisation is a real good idea.

I agree.  The best use of government and complex technology now would be to prepare for a powerdown.

Whether it's politically possible is a whole 'nother story, of course, but we can only try.


TOD is a wonderful source of information on a wide range of topics - may it have many more birthdays. It's by far the best place to keep up to date with all the important news and to get recommendations for further study.

By the way, here's a link to an interesting piece on the derivatives market from the Telegraph: et=/money/2006/03/18/ixcitytop.html

Charlottesville, Virginia
March 22, 2006
1309 Hours

   Yes, happy birthday, indeed! Like so many other folks who patronize this site, over the short time I have been coming around here, I have learned a great deal about the oil and energy industries, as well as something about human nature. I greatly value all of you who contribute to the reasoned and informed debate I find here, and it is a breath of fresh air when compared to the usual lunacy of the blogosphere. TOD...You guys kick ass!
   Right then. Changing the subject...
   I have a question or two, and if you would be so kind as to assist me, I would be greatly in your debt. Around my part of the country (Central Virginia) we got us some politicians who are touting, among other things, bio fuels...specifically, switch an alternative fuel that we should be investing heavily in. Personally, I think they are pedaling the modern day equivalent of snake oil. Am I right to think this, or are their serious problems promoting biofuels in anything other than very small scale, localised production. It would seem to me that not only would the energy inputs be taxing (how much in the way of NG based fertilizer, petroluem based pesticides or deisel fuel for tractors would be used) but we would also be at the viscitudes and venal winds of a vile nature (Yes, I did see "V for Vendetta" and recommend it heartily. No mention of Peak Oil in it though....), to whit, the current drought under which so much of our country is under right now. In short, if it don't rain, you can plant as much switchgrass as you want, but it's still a failed crop. Unless you irrigate it. In which case you need power for the pumps, which takes more energy...
You see where I am going with this?
   I would greatly appreciate any other perspectives or information regarding this matter. Please tell me how I am wrong here. I want to know.

               Your most humble servant,

                    Subkommander Dred

Happy anniversary TOD.  First time posting but have been following religiously for about 8 months now.  Best site for peak oilers, in fact it was probably this site that forced me to yank my head out of the sand and become an oiler. The content here blows me away almost every day.  Best level of discussion & amazingly civil considering the volatility of the topic. Much gratitude for all your hard work!
Me too Chief.
Prof. Goose said:

"Most importantly, people can disagree in this space and reason out their differences through collegial persuasion; arguments with empirical evidence and logical reason continue to win the day.  We at The Oil Drum will fight to make sure that remains the case, we view that dynamic as vital to the mission of what we do here."

You've nailed it with this paragraph, Prof.

I don't know whether it's because so many regular posters are engineers and/or scientists, but there seems to be a tacit understanding at TOD that losing your cool or arguing a point without either good reasoning or data to back you up will get you little respect or response.

Due to the skills and depth of knowledge required to argue a position, I imagine many readers are too intimidated to post here, and in my view this is a good thing. I have visited TOD practically every day for the past nine months, and I think this is my fourth comment. I haven't the technical background to make any meaningful contribution to the debate, but I have learned a tremendous amount from the input of other members. Kudos to you all.

Congratulations on building a magnificent resource, and I hope you manage to maintain TOD's present integrity as its popularity increases, as it most surely will.

[Stands up, applauds, whistles, and does the circle-motion-thing with one fist while making embarassing whoop-whoop noises.]
Happy birthday to you,
Happy birthday to you,
Happy birthday dear The Oil Drum,
Happy birthday to you!

And many more years of brilliant service to Earth and humanity!

Mazeltov, TOD.  I really need the education you are providing.
First of all;
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO TOD for a first year with many interesting topics. We clearly live in interesting times.
Hopefully many more insightfull discussions will follow in the years to caome.


Below is a link to a Norwegian blogspot "Kveldssong for hydrokaronar" i.e. "Evening song for Hydrocarbons" that as of 20. March presented and discussed a production profile for regular oil derived from Hubbert's Linearization (HL) versus actual data as of 2005 and a forecast towards 2010 from NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) for NCS (Norwegian Continental Shelf).

As from the start of oil production from NCS till now, the actual production from NCS has closely followed a perfect Hubbert curve.

The commentary has a diagram which should be self-explanatory and that is clickable for a larger version.

In short the forecast using the Hubbert's method predicts a production of approx. 1,6 Mb/d (regular) oil versus the forecast from NPD as of 12. January 2006 predicts 2,5 Mb/d by 2010, this translates into a difference of 0,9 Mb/d by 2010. The two predictions agree upon predicted production for 2006, but from there they diverge significantly.

The cumulative difference between the two profiles is approximately 900 Mb for the years 2007-2010 (stated in the text).

Which of the two predictions do you believe comes closest to actual figures?

Perhaps the NPD profile could be further challenged and discussed here at "The Oil Drum" in its second year?

Along your lines, this is significant:;_ylt=AhoEuzgZkanCS6EzfFtZGx KAsnsA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

I also recall a dry NCS wildcat by Exxon announced about 3 weeks ago. Major problems finding new oil in Norwegian seas.

Thousands Of Barges Could Save Europe From Deep Freeze It is rather ironic that the quick dismissal of creating ice in the Arctic was dismissed without much exploration. And here we are again. Now, intent cited below was not to save the northern ice pack, but the project is a feasible ice-creating project to sustain the thermohaline current at reasonable cost: Literally, ice making machines: On the cheap: 50 billion dollars. As the article points out, the causal problem is not addressed; this is merely a band aide. The actual article was published in journal Climate Change.
Happy Birthday

I guess this is as good a time as any to step out of the shadows.

This is pretty much the only site I come to for peak oil info and serious discussion.

It's not easy being one of the very few people in the NZ government that take the 'end of cheap oil' (as we have to call it) seriously. You have no idea how much it has helped having this site as a resource.

Keep up the great work.

Hi Vanman.

Welcome aboard. TOD gets about 7000 unique visits a day and has 2200 registered accounts. I don't know how many people in total read the site, but it's great when people step out of the shadows and say hello.

That said, I'm sure many people who view the site who do not comment could make meaningful contributions. Don't be shy! And as for those who already do comment, I am greatly appreciative of all their contributions--even people who think Peak Oil is nonsense. Sometimes a comment conveys some really interesting stuff and sends me off and I'll post something about it if I can.

Special thanks to SuperG who makes all this possible. I've run a few websites and I know what a pain in the ass it truly is. As for the other editors, I sent them an e-mail. TOD is definitely "the best of the web". Now I've got one more addiction than I had before. Now if I could just kick this crack cocaine-like oil habit, I could be free!

best to all of you, Dave


Are you an MP of our wonderful country, or just a minion behind the scenes?

In either case, I would like to say this to you.

Regardless of where you fit on the political spectrum I strongly urge you to stand up and do whatever you can to push the Peak Oil issue into the mainstream.

You have 2 and a half years to make a difference in this great country, and with some of the utterly stupid policies flying around, we need all the people we can get to help change course.

There is very little time to turn the steering wheel, but more hands on the wheel will help it turn quicker.  Please make a difference by coming out from the shadows and shouting to all and sundry about the predicament the world, and NZ, is facing.

While you may face ridicule at first (although I doubt it now), remember the Gandhi quote "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

Stand up and be counted!

Alternatively, you could keep your anonimity and gives us the inside goss on who 'gets' Peak Oil within the government.
much more valuable to be behind the scenes than to be in the limelight...I think that's going to especially be the case in the coming years.  good candidates won't run for office anymore because of the rectal exam they know they're going to get...
Yes, but those who possess knowledge and sit on their hands will fare much worse if they are found out.  "What? You knew about this and you didn't tell us?!".  Of course, they can always take the cowards route by saying that their advisors never told them.

It's a bit like the situation when you find out that your friend's spouse is having an affair.  If you tell your friend you might get blamed for their break-up, but if the friend finds out that you knew about it and didn't tell them, then you've lost their friendship as well.  I wish I could remember what the standard agony aunt response to this dilemna was.

Happy Birthday!!  I stumbled on TOD during the
hurricanes and have since been visiting daily.
Keep up the great work.  For me, PO wasn't
even on the radar screen.   After reading all
the books, spending way to much time on the net
and having  my daughters tell me "Why should we
stay in college if we are going back to the
stone age ?",   TOD has giving me and my employees time to
prepare for what is coming.  

Sailorman, I enjoy reading your posts,
especially the comment on the TIP's.  
That little nugget of info has been very useful.  

Thanks again TOD and yes, we live in interesting

Congratulations, TOD! This is one of my favorite sites. I wish you all success in continuing to illuminate the issues around peak oil.
Congratulations TOD. I'm not a frequent poster but, like many others, I'm here almost every day.  I've been amazed at the depth and civility of the writing here and at the effort the main players put into laying out their ideas.  TOD is a great example of community outreach and a model for the collaborative exploration of ideas.  Happy first birthday.  
I've read all the books and listened to all the audio.  This is where you come to keep your finger on the pulse.

Happy Birthday TOD

Keep up the good work, everyone.  I transitioned here almost a year ago from lurking on one of the RunningonEmpty groups where posts tended to be long on content and short on substance.  As TOD has become more popular it's been harder to keep up with it all but I have to say that some of the content has bordered on the sublime.  The research done here has been especially valuable.  

Quick question:  Is anyone trying to get peer-reviewed articles published on any of the topics discussed?  I realize that ProfGoose and HO may be doing this but don't want to reveal their identities, but maybe Stuart or others?

I too have asked this question before and gotten responses that generally wondered why one would bother with that approach. The simple answer is credibility. But I suggest that the academics and researchers among us (e.g Stuart S. and WesTexas & Khebab, H.O, Professor G.) shoud seriously consider this step.

And Happy Birthday to this site, which I visit frequently.  I first learned of "Peak Oil" and this site from BOPNews last May and have been a regular and frequent visitor ever since. In the wake and mess of my "coffee spitting moment," I found realiable answers and reasoned discourse here.  Paradoxically, I also learned that the situation might be not as bad as I feared, i.e. "slow squeeze," and potentially more devastating than I initially realzied over the long term.  Thanks.

Congratulations, TOD!  Your site is simply the best on the WWW.  I only discovered you a few months back thanks to a tip from a colleague.   I have been hooked ever since.  Very informative and educational, and it is because of its contributors like you.  I first heard about the peak oil theory waaaaaaayyyyyyy back in 2000, and was so fascinated that I have remained focused ever since.  For awhile, my attempts at discussion over the issue were mostly ignored.  But I noticed a subtle turnaround beginning in 2005 - people I knew were finally beginning to take it more seriously.  Imagine that!  Now what could have caused them to take notice at last?  I know one thing:  your site has set the standard for rational, civil debate over the paramount issue of our time.  Best wishes, and keep up the good work!
lee...lee raymond....i didn't know you lego!(!viva la TOD!)
I also am addicted to TOD.

An interesting bit of info from:

Chevron's Deepest Well, in the Gulf of Mexico, Has Less Oil Than Predicted
March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp.'s Knotty Head discovery, the deepest well ever drilled in the Gulf of Mexico, holds about half as much oil and natural gas as originally estimated, said Nexen Inc., a partner in the project.

Knotty Head was drilled in 3,500 feet (1,067 meters) of water to a depth of 30,589 feet under the sea floor, San Ramon, California-based Chevron said in December. The field is about 170 miles southeast of New Orleans.
Happy birthday.

Keepin' it real for a whole year, congrats.

Hopefully this post is in a quiet backwater.

Perhaps TOD is a microcosm. It has happened wonderfully but probably too late. I don't really know the future for sure but I feel we have run out of 'manouvering room'.

I think TOD will exist as long as the internet, since it is probably the most important site on it atm. Unfortunately I guess that folks like Step Back and Cherenkov are closest to the truth: we are stupid monkeys and have gone beyond our sustainable limits.

The next few decades will probably be a testing time for our species, success ( = survival) will probably demand profound changes in how we function. I really don't have any idea how that will play out, but we are sometimes smart and extraordinarily adaptable monkeys. Unfortunately a decent amount of wisdom may be needed and we aren't so hot on that.

Happy 1st, TOD. I will be even happier if you are here in 5 years' time.

Happy Birthday.

Thank you for providing me with lots of useful information. I hope I have added a bit in return to the collective.

I can now argue better with the general public about Peak Oil, but even though they might just about believe in it, because the government are not mentioning or doing anything about it, they don't consider it important or don't think it will affect them personally.

isshunen, omedeto gozaimasu!
well done everyone involved with TOD.
I look forward to lots more informative discussion and debate over the coming year!
and great humour, of many colours...