An interestng development was the attempt by
the Japansese to reclaim an island just 35km
off the coast of coast of Taiwan in 2005. The
Taiwanese sent at patrol boat to repel the
invaders.

The key of course to all this is that if China
can incorporate Taiwan (and that island), it can
extend its economic zone a considerable distance
eastwards into what the Japanese regard as their
zone of influence.

It is also interesting that there is still a
very sytrong animosity toward Japan amongst
many Koreans, who were subjected to four decades
of subjugation and cruelty by the Japanese.
S Korea, like Japan and Taiwan, is critically
dependent on imported oil and other resources,
and really is stuck up a creek without a paddle
if an international sharing protocol cannot be
established.

But nobody mentioned Nigeria. Indeed, none of the authorities saw fit to mention the coming end of cheap oil and the concomitant spread of failed states.

People are, by biological design I think, geared toward finding and fighting human enemies, human aggressors. But it's not open aggression that most threatens us. It's the loss of easy oil, and the horrific political and social situations we're going to have to meddle in to maintain what supply is left. It seems pretty clear based on this poll that the U.S. security establishment has not come around to that way of thinking.

Korea (South!) is far less ready to follow the baton. And of course S. Korea could also easily develop nuclear weapons if it chose to.

Where will Russia end up? So far the US has done far more damage to Russian interests than has China, but her huge empty spaces, vast resources and (relatively) small population cannot but stimulate improper thoughts in its  resource-starved southern neighbor with 1.3 billion people. Nuclear weapons, the missiles to deliver them, lots of gas and oil -- these enable a mutually beneficial and respectful relationship with China for the near term. Somewhat longer term, the relationship is another bomb waiting to go off.

Despite China's military buildup, she and some 20 other countries' military budgets do not equal that of the US. Some picture China as the upcoming threat to the US empire. But China has its own vulnerabilities -- much unrest in the countryside, which would become much worse with any downturn in the US economy, terrible ecological problems, and of course a growing energy deficit with no good solution is sight. I see no chance whatsoever in China challenging US global hegemony on the basis of its continued growth.

There is no doubt that the US empire will crumble as have all empires, due to overreach among other things, but its hard to see China standing around unscathed, ready to step in its shoes. What I think is possible is that the day of global empire may be nearing its end -- no one will be able to sustain one anymore, not the least because of peak oil.

Unfortunately, there may be one more horrendous and gigantic spasm of violence in the coming decade or two before that day arrives.

This latest item brings low altitude ozone into
the global warming equation.

NASA STUDY LINKS "SMOG" TO ARCTIC WARMING
NASA scientists have found that a major form of
global air pollution involved in summertime
"smog" has also played a significant role in
warming the Arctic.

In a global assessment of the impact of ozone
on climate warming, scientists at the NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS),
New York, evaluated how ozone in the lowest
part of the atmosphere changed temperatures
over the past 100 years. Using the best
available estimates of global emissions of
gases that produce ozone, the GISS computer
model study reveals how much this single air
pollutant, and greenhouse gas, has contributed
to warming in specific regions of the world.

According to this new research, ozone was
responsible for one-third to half of the
observed warming trend in the Arctic during
winter and spring. Ozone is transported from
the industrialized countries in the Northern
Hemisphere to the Arctic quite efficiently
during these seasons. The findings have been
accepted for publication in the American
Geophysical Union's Journal of Geophysical
Research-Atmospheres.

Ozone plays several different roles in the
Earth's atmosphere. In the high-altitude region
of the stratosphere, ozone acts to shield the
planet from harmful ultraviolet radiation. In
the lower portion of the atmosphere (the
troposphere), ozone can damage human health,
crops and ecosystems. Ozone is also a greenhouse
gas and contributes to global warming.

Ozone is formed from several other chemicals
found in the atmosphere near the Earth's surface
that come from both natural sources and human
activities such as fossil fuel burning, cement
manufacturing, fertilizer application and
biomass burning. Ozone is one of several air
pollutants regulated in the United States by
the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency.

The impact of ozone air pollution on climate
warming is difficult to pinpoint because,
unlike other greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide, ozone does not last long enough in
the lower atmosphere to spread uniformly
around the globe. Its warming impact is much
more closely tied to the region it originated
from. To capture this complex picture, GISS
scientists used a suite of three-dimensional
computer models that starts with data on ozone
sources and then tracks how ozone chemically
evolved and moved around the world over the
past century.

The warming impact of low-altitude ozone on
the Arctic is very small in the summer months
because ozone from other parts of the globe
does not have time to reach the region before
it is destroyed by chemical reactions fueled
by ample sunshine. As a result, when it is
summertime in the Northern Hemisphere, ozone-
induced warming is largest near the sources of
ozone emissions. The computer model showed
large summer warming from ozone over western
North America and eastern Europe/central Asia,
areas with high levels of ozone pollution during
that time of year.

The new results identify an unexpected benefit
of air pollution control efforts worldwide,
according to lead author Drew Shindell. "We
now see that reducing ozone pollution can not
only improve air quality but also have the
added benefit of easing climate warming,
especially in the Arctic."

The research was supported by NASA's
Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Analysis
Program.

Japan and China have been bickering over the Siberian oil pipeline for a few years now, and it still doesn't seem resolved. Where will Sakhalin gas go to? What are the opportunities for a regional gas pipeline network?
Not to mention increasing Chinese military presence in South East Asia to protect supply security through the sealanes of communications (Strait of Malacca).

Hope there will be follow-up posts...!

I can tell you that in the last couple of years the Japanese "establishment" (media, politicians, bureaucrats, academics) have become utterly obsessed with China. The only thing that rivals it is their obsession with North Korea and I'd say it's well eclipsed that by now. The threat of Big Bad China is everywhere you look, even though China has never attacked or invaded Japan, only the other way round. The Japanese establishment are utterly appalled at the prospect of losing their status as the most important economy in Asia.

But there's a big internal conflict to this in Japan. The business elite have totally thrown their destiny behind peaceful symbiosis with their giant neighbour. China last year became Japan's number one  export market. Thousands of Japanese companies have manufacturing bases in China (FDI) and tens of thousands more contract Chinese factories to produce their goods (cheaply). And the corporates know that they need China's consumer market to propell growth when the US implodes on itself. And Japan's population is shrinking. Japan is now importing engineering graduates from China to cover the labour-force holes all those retiring baby boomers are going to make. up to now the only large-scale imported labour japan has used is latin americans in the auto parts factories.

My personal take on this is that the amount of gas under dispute is small change compared with Japan's needs and they are just using it as a nationalistic way to stir up hatred against China, with the US cheerleading of course.

And don't think I'm defending the disgusting Deng Xioping cadres running China, they've got theirs coming too, which is why they're so desparate to secure energy supplies and play the nationalistic card themselves.

Is the huge Chinese US$ reserve a military weapon waiting to be used? "Careful what you do in our backyard (or with Iran) One false move and I sink your currency!" It would be expensive but could the Chinese govt somehow spontaneously do this, even though it is not the government holding all that paper?

China is very big, with a huge population. It's almost a world in itself. They have enough to do just keeping China on the rails. Historically China has not really gone in for expansionism of a large scale. Why should they given the above? They felt for centuries that they were the world or at least the empire in the middle and outside their were only tribes and barbarians, that one didn't really want that much contact with. China had everything it needed thank you very much!

Of course things are different now. They have become the workshop of the world, they are going to need predigeous ammounts of energy and they will probably become the world's leading power as long as peace holds. This is going to sound provocative to many of you guys. I am not particularly worried about Chinese expansionism.Because of their size they can sit back and let the world come to them. That was what it was like for centuries after all. China kind of likes that role. No, what really, really worries me, is how is the United States going to react to the rise of super-power China? What concerns me, and seems more likely, is American agression aimed at China which would be an absolute disaster!

Also, I want to point out that China and Japan
disagree on how to divide the area.  Japan refused
to use a 50/50 joint venture.  Also, Japan is insistant
on claiming most of the natural gas fields.  They are
not willing to negotiate, until China stops its
development and does not produce from the disputed region.

I don't think any of these points were mention.

Japan is in an extremely precarious situation, a fact that I'm sure has not escaped their people or their government. They have a very high population density but virtually zero energy resources; they are located only a stone's throw away from a nuclear-armed country of some 1.3 billion people, many of whom hold a bitter grudge over Japan's atrocities in China during WW II; and they are heavily dependent on the good graces of the US for their ultimate protection from China.

All this says to me that there must be tremendous pressure in Japan to shred their constitutional strictures against nuclear weapons and go nuclear, something they are quite easily capable of doing, given their level of technological sophistication and extensive experience in nuclear power. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they already had a fully developed design for a deliverable nuclear weapon, that would only need to be loaded with plutonium or enriched uranium to make it official.  Hell, if the decision were made on a Friday afternoon, they'd probably have a bomb ready by late Monday morning. (Well, almost.)

As to Taiwan:

I really have a hard time picturing the US going the distance in defending Taiwan. What do we have to gain by doing that, other than maintaining  some prestige?  But we'd have a lot to lose. Large US corporations have invested many billions of dollars in China, and the US is highly dependent on China for the import of an increasing fraction of our consumer goods. Then there is the issue of all the dollars being held by China.

Then from a strictly military standpoint, defending Taiwan without going nuclear would be no picnic. Sending a carrier battle group or two into the theatre might forestall an actual invasion by China and might be able to inflict substantial damage on the Chinese military assets arrayed against Taiwan. But what are we going to do then: keep them there indefinitely, where they will become juicy targets for cruise missile and submarine attack?  If nothing else, the Chinese are very patient. I don't think that in the long run the  US can defend Taiwan (without going nuclear) against the Chinese, any better than it was able to defend the Philippines against the Japanese at the start of WW II.

 For the above reasons, I suspect that the US has already made a wink-and-a-nod decision to let China have Taiwan, and that the only problem is how to finesse the Chinese takeover without making it look like an outright sell-out. Just  my hunch.