Sunday Open Thread

If you need something to get you started in the OT, Michael Klare writes:
It's official: the era of resource wars is upon us. In a major London address, British Defense Secretary John Reid warned that global climate change and dwindling natural resources are combining to increase the likelihood of violent conflict over land, water and energy. Climate change, he indicated, "will make scarce resources, clean water, viable agricultural land even scarcer" -- and this will "make the emergence of violent conflict more rather than less likely."
Also, anyone else see Oil Crash?
One reason why Hawaii will be lousy place to ride out peak oil:

Matson fuel charge to rise by 3.5%

Higher oil costs are cited as the reason for the latest increase, taking effect in April

Matson Navigation Co. will raise its fuel surcharge to 18.5 percent from 15 percent on shipping to Hawaii, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands effective April 2.

"In the past three months, bunker fuel prices have risen 17 percent, with the fuel surcharge recovering only a portion of that increase," said Dave Hoppes, Matson's senior vice president of ocean services, in a statement.

Also has some interesting info on shipping costs, including a graph of shipping fuel prices.


"One reason why Hawaii will be lousy place to ride out peak oil:..."

How does one ride it out? Wait for new oil to form? :)

Nope.  Wait for a new society to form.  :)
Speaking of Hawaii, I was wondering how the gasoline price controls introduced were working there. I googled on hawaii gas price controls and here was one of the first hits:

Gas-price controls backfire in Hawaii

Cost of fuel rises faster under new law, while drivers pay less in other 49 states

Hawaii's gas price controls, imposed last fall when the cost of fuel was hovering around $3 a gallon in many parts of the U.S., have actually triggered much higher costs for consumers.

As of Friday, Hawaii drivers were paying the highest per-gallon costs in the nation, with record-setting prices of as much as $3.39. A year ago, consumers in Hawaii were paying nearly $1 a gallon less. The national average today is $2.24 a gallon.

The price controls were set by the state Public Utilities Commission Sept. 1. The idea was that the limits would bring Hawaii's gas prices in line with the mainland, which has traditionally had lower prices on many goods because of the transportation costs involved in delivering product to the islands.

Now there are moves afoot in the Hawaii legislature to scrap the price controls....

Before the gas cap law, Hawaii paid an average of 44 cents more per gallon than the rest of the mainland. Since the law went into effect in September, however, the differential has increased to more than 50 cents per gallon....

Meanwhile, free-market advocates say retailers charged the maximum allowable under the limits to compensate for the threat of not being able to profit in the future.

It's kind of ironic that Peak Oilers call for government to mandate higher prices, while these people want government to force them to be lower. Everyone wants to have their hands on the wheel, I guess. Apparently having prices set by supply and demand is the one solution that is unacceptable to everyone.
One thing I noticed while I was in Hawaii for a couple of weeks around Christmas: there's a huge difference in the prices charged from station to station.  And people didn't seem to care.  The lines were really long at the most expensive station.  

I guess they haven't reached the point where cost trumps convenience yet.  

Ack.  I just noticed that article is from WingNut Daily.  Home of the bottomless well of abiotic oil.

It's incorrect, not surprisingly.  It's not the higher cost of transportation the gas price is supposed to address.  The cap allows extra for transportation and taxes.  Hawaii feels it's being gouged because they're a small market where there's no competition.  The gas cap ties their prices to the larger markets in NY and LA, that's all.  And ut only affects the wholesale cost; the retailers can set any price they want.

Also, Gov. Lingle can suspend the law if she decides it's doing more harm than good.

Energy Bulletin has posted a US Army study on Peak Oil and impqct mitigation for Army Installations

Hmmm.  That is interesting.  I wonder how seriously they are taking it?
     I would say pretty seriously.  For background, see also regarding the USAF.  
     I work for a major defense contractor, with both Army and Air Force contracts, and knew the writing was on the wall for me when this was posted.  Of course, to listen to the management and, sadly enough, most of the people I work with, "the future's so bright, we have to wear shades"...
     However, existing programs are just now starting to be "restructured" (can you say cut?) and a certain amount of uneasiness is becoming evident.  This causes me to feel both anger and sadness--  I have been followng Peak Oil for maybe 18 months or so, and only because I like to pay attention to what's going on in the world.  Why aren't more of the bright, well-educated people I work with ready for this?  Then I look at the most oblivious ones, and it seems like they're the nicest ones I know-- young engineers just starting families and previously savvy "old-timers" looking forward to a guaranteed retirement involving spoiling their grandkids.  However monstrous the organization is, the military-industrial complex employs a lot of bright, kind and good-hearted people that are going to suffer along with the rest of us.  
     Big Gav at Peak Energy has more about the US military and their PO awareness/mitigation today.
I'm so amazed that the military actually can see what is happening and has the balls to issue a report saying that present policies of consumption are "unsustainable" and damage the image of the US in the world (not to mention putting the military mission in jeapardy) - I mean, I find this whole report so unbelievably rational and realistic and the fact that such an honest assessment of the energy situation and such overt disagreement with administration policy on energy is in print - that my first reaction to reading it was that it must be a joke.  That this report must have been issued by some PO junkie, not the US Govt.  

But if true - and it sure looks legit - I cannot understand why it's not on the front page of every paper and the subject of the most heated discussion.   Instead, we hear nothing in the MSM.   It seems like we must be living in some sort of Alice in Wonderland time period.

The military often issues reports that seem, well, rather daring.  They will research anything.  For example, the Navy investigated the possibility of using psychics to spy on our enemies.  The Pentagon issued that report last year about how global warming was going to starve and drown us all.  

But whether the mainstream in the military really act on it is something else.  Despite that global warming report, we aren't doing much about it.

They will research anything.

No direct quarrterly numbers to meet will do that for ya.

And a broad mandate of 'protection' lets 'em.

They are worried about the reacation of other huamn beings to the changes that are a-comming.  

I do not know why you are surprised to see an intelligent document from the U.S. Army. I have been fortunate to know large numbers of enlisted noncoms and also many officers of various ranks in all branches of the services for the past fifty years, and on the average I'd say they are somewhat smarter and far more in touch with the real world than are their civilian counterparts.

Note that it is not the generals who screwed up the Vietnam war, it was their civilian superiors. President Eisenhower was smart enough not to touch Vietnam with a ten-foot pole (and seriously pissed off the French by not coming to their rescue at Dien Bien Phu in 1954), but "smart Harvard lawyer" JFK and his McNamara/bean-counter Sec. of Defense and the Dean Rusk brain trust of lawyers got us into what was a disaster and quagmire ten times worse than Iraq.

Before invading Iraq, the highest-ranking Army guy
says, "Hey it is going to take 400,000 American troops to do the job," and so the politocoes force him out because that is not the Gospel accoding to the straight-shooting;-) Cheney and Co., guys who truly are ignorant of military history. I cannot figure out Rumsfeld, who actually served in the military, how he can have said and done the stupid things he has. It is a big puzzle to me. And how could he not have had the honor to resign after the revalations of mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners? This is a BNG, Big National Disgrace. Also, why did not Bush have the guts to fire Rummy? Misplaced loyalty? The conventional wisdom is that Bush is dumber than spit and merely a puppet dancing on strings pulled by the Big Money Boys, but I do not think this is the whole story, and I think it will probably take historians fifty or a hundred years to figure out an accurate account of what is actually happening now.

I read that Profumo just died.  He resigned like a good Brit, but Americans seem far less likely to resign in the face of scandal.  I wonder if, not being aristocrats with plenty of land and old money, they simply need the steady income.  

Some days, I'd love to resign and spend more time with my family.  Can't afford it.

Bush is not stupid, but IMO he is willingly being handled by some really sharp, calculating characters that are in every way a lot smarter and better informed than him.  It saddens me, but a lot of people I know, members of my family, see nothing wrong with what the US has done at Gitmo or Abu Ghuraib.  I think their sense of immunity is sort-sighted.

The only thing worse than those navy clowns running a land war is for the army clowns running a naval war. God, when I think about the war of 1815 I cringe. It's like, they just don't get it.
Kennedy's knifefighter instincts were perfectly suitable to running a PT boat, and he no doubt would have made a wonderfull privateer captain, but if you want to fight a land war in Asia you have to understand farmers.
At West Point from about 1880, among the first 100 Commandmants the first three are:
1. Do not become involved in a land war on the Asian land mass.
2. Do not become involved in a land war on the Asian land mass.
3. Do not become involved in a land war on the Asian land mass.

IMO JFK was an ignorant and arrogant a-hole who tried (egged on by little brother Bobby) to kill Castro at least six times, enthusistically did the dumbest things imaginable, damn near got us into World War III through really stupid mistakes, bungled the Bay of Pigs Invasion bigtime, was the only U.S. president ever to use full-time the services of a high-class pimp, and was so addicted to drugs that he had a hard time reading his speeches.

His image and the whole Camelot thing was a total fantasy created by spin doctors and fawning journalists. IMO he bears most of the problem for us getting inot the Vietnam fiasco.

God rot his soul in hell.

He got in Marilyn's pants.  Couldn't be all bad.  Had a sense of humor too.  And he was Irish.
Right.  Fifty or a hundred years.  Like anyone will care then.
The US military has a long history of tackling all sorts of issues, from technology to social issues. The US Army was integrating at a time when the rest of the US had separate bathrooms for blacks and whites. If you are surprised at such a report, I'd suggest you re-acquaint yourself with the US military itself instead of the bozos who've been elected to direct it.
I just want to put in a small plug for the military.  I had my military experience, as brief as it was inglorious, at the tail end of WW2.  What I experienced  there impressed me deeply.  The navy took a bunch of hillbillies (me) and street sweepings from various ghettos, and in no time shook them all into the right holes in the organization and gave them the miminal  training to do what needed doing.  We all worked together marvelously. The bunch I was with ( fixing radar and such) were as smart a group as ever I found in later life.  Our carrier set  various fleet records for performance, and our destroyers were absolutely dead-eye on any incoming - two shots and boom-splash! (proximity fuses).  It was all organization and competent leaders- by that time most all the screw-ups were dead or bumped down to the bilges.

And by the time we got out, we could brush our teeth, swim, read , and feel good about being able to do  at least something.

My father, who saw heavy action in both big wars, told me the first thing to do in a real fight was to shoot all the peacetime parade ground tyrants because they were the ones that would get you dead.  Too bad that hasn't been done in DC.

The Army Corps of Engineers released a similar study pretty much acknowledging peak oil. This link is from the Yahoo Energyresources group so group membership is needed to access it:

bruce from chicago

The Future of Science is Penn and Teller's "Bullshit"

Recylcling In the First World is a CRIME - a syndicate of unnecessary and parasitic middlemen.  The Third World recycles correctly - on the spot, w/o the Red Tape of a Central Pod somewhere...

Penn and Teller point out the Fraud of First World Recycling Charades.  They get it wrong too when they say recyling doesn't Pay or Work.

In the First World it acts as welfare for and subsidizes GreenFreaks- a bad approach of a Large Centralized Organ.  The Third World Get's Mother's Prize - Profoundly Local Recycling efforts On The Spot.  No Energy Using Middle Parasites need apply thank you.

Good luck folks.  You be needing it.  Shortly, I'm sure.

Recycling in the west seems pretty pointless. We're also robbing our kids. See, in the future our children will be strip-mining landfills for resources -- so we should do the right thing and carefully place our waste paper, plastics and metals in this long-term savings account called the landfill for our children's futures.
I am not seeing a crash of oil, but would very much like to see "oil crash". A little question for graphic analysts if any still exist : isn't the april future of nymex crude near completing a shoulder head shoulder formation (not yet done) ? You can look at the chart here. Despite the tightness of production/consumption do you think that the global slowing of growth could induce a short term downturn of the price of crude oil ?
The price of oil has been dropping gradually for over a month and a half. So the price has already downturned in the short term.
Trend? Or just fluctuation? Hard to say at this point. Based on doing time-series research on various economic variables I find it wise to be very cautious in calling a trend. What was the trend of stock-market prices in 2005? Was there a trend? Maybe not.

Once again, I confidently predict, with no fear whatsoever of successful contratidiction the future of oil prices: They will fluctuate.

If a month and a half is a trend, then the trend is down. If three years is a trend, then the trend is up.

You are correct(as always)in your prediction that prices will fluctuate - but then the real question becomes, how much will they fluctuate?

I think price swings will become more extreme--but when and to what extent and for exactly what reasons I cannot predict.

A big turning point will come when expectations of price level changes go from being adaptive to "rational."

Another Huge Unpredictable Factor (HUF) is the collective behavior of rumor. Rumor rules the day-to-day fluctuations to a large extent, and I am 100% certain that some of these rumors are planted with the intent of manipulating the market for profit.

For example, did you hear? Terrorists just blew down the Statue of Liberty . . . . Well of course that is bullshit, but a clever person or group using the Internet (which is 90% to 98% BS, it seems to me) can spread a rumor like this, complete with fake photos, fake press releases to bounce prices a couple of bucks in a matter of minutes. Will the SEC or anybody ever catch them? Not likely--could be in Russia, anywhere.

Who would do such a thing? Goddamn preverts.

I can no longer sit back and allow Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, Communist subversion and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids.

Purity of Essence.


"Women sense my power, but . . ."

U.K. Gas Surges to a Record After National Grid Issues Alert

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Natural-gas prices in the U.K. jumped to a record as the country's network manager issued an alert indicating a supply shortage because of freezing weather.

Gas for delivery today at the National Balancing Point, the main U.K. trading hub, more than tripled to 200 pence a therm at 1:45 p.m. London time, according to broker Spectron Group Plc. The price equals $35 per million British thermal units. A therm is 100,000 British thermal units.

I guess winter's not over yet...

Make that quadrupled in price.

Industrial users may be cut off.  Many have already cut back due to high prices.  (Among them, building materials manufacturers and fertilizer makers.)

And here's the graph.  Yowsah.

And this happens after they had a relatively mild winter... What happens if next winter is cold? As far as it goes for now, peak NG promises to bring more pain than PO.
"I guess winter's not over yet..."

I just spoke to my Mum and Dad who live on the south west coast of Scotland.  They had 8inches of snow last night and were expecting more snow tonight.

My mum said that almost the whole country had snow, but the west coast had more than the east.

Luckily they use heating oil instead of gas, and I've been telling them to keep the tank topped up in case of big price fluctuations.

Z Machine Exceeds Two Billion Degrees Kelvin

the radiated x-ray output was as much as four times the expected kinetic energy input

Perpetuum mobile? Or maybe cheap fusion?

Hell, buy your tuna fish by the case--cheaper that way.
Also it is cheaper to buy buckets of peanut butter by the dozen.

Just be sure to date everything, use First In, First Out inventory control and only buy stuff you will eat anyway.

Query: Is it moral to shoot your neighbor when she wants to share your stockpiled food after TSHTF? This was a big topic back in the good old "Build your own fallout shelter" Cold War days.

My answer: Choose your neighbors with care. Don't get yourself into "not enough space in the lifeboat" situations.

And if you have a third-class ticket on the Titanic, good luck.

This is getting interesting: How does modern industrial man keep it together in a 'short emergency' ?

We got a nice little booklet (for free!) from UKGov last year telling us all to stock approx 21 days worth of food just in case... (Just in case of what?). Most people threw it in the bin I suppose. Anyway thats 21 x4 (+21 x 1 retriever). So... last September, mad-daddy the PO nut tried to some way stock up and be, (like the boy scout he was)prepared.

It is an interesting excercise in its own right.
First off: Assume that by day 14 you will be rationing your own supplies in the family (by day 18, your are eyeing the golden retriever...). Lets just assume 4 x 21 x1 can of tuna. 84 X $1.50 in your money. This is your basic protein. 84 X $ 0.50 Baked Beans. There is yer'Carbs
(actually i am slightly more adventurous and we have a reasonable gamut of canned goods, this is for brevity).
Then there is a few extras like rice, pasta - any dry goods that store well. Chocolate, Whiskey (mad - dads morale is important). etc.
So Storage can be an issue. Esp. in the UK for most people.
Then secondly, how to cook? Our stove is electric. If the lights go out then we dont eat hot food. So, An extra bottle of Propane and a 2-ring portable gas cooker ( tag: about $ 100.00 in the UK). Then there is lighting: Candles, Hurricane lamps, torches etc.
Our heating is gas, but the water pump is electric. So do we get a propane heater or just run on the spot for 3 weeks? - Lets assume it happens in a cold snap. Thats about another $100.00

We did not even consider bottled water at this stage.

Enough: you get the picture. I reckoned that to be truly prepped a UK family would, on average earnings need to spend an extra months food bill or more on all of the above. Many would spend all year tripping up over this stuff.

We got the basics sorted out (but we did not start from zero 'cos in rural scotland, you tend to squirrel stuff away) . The logistics for most people would be pretty hard financially and logistically.

Not easy, and worth a whole thread in itself.

The CDC is recommending that Americans keep two weeks' worth of food, medicine, and cash in their homes, in case of bird flu.  They don't expect quarantine to last more than two weeks in any given community, though the actual epidemic as a whole may last months.

They are recommending that you choose foods that do not need to be heated, in case the power grid goes down.


The UKGov booklet cleverly states 'several days'. I wrote in 21 days after watching a UKGov Minister get a roasting over 'several days.'He was pinned down to ''greater than 14 days''.

On the basis that 7 days probably is not an emergency, by 10 days the problem gets worse, and panic buying clears most of the shelves in supermarkets. By day 14 you have a genuine emergency. By day 21 you are pretty close to collapse (The power engineers who could try and get the lights back on are too busy looking after family / cannot get to work etc). As each day passes, the chances of 'normality' returning decrease.

We had a little taster of this in 2000 when we had fuel protests by angry truck drivers and farmers .
Something like bird flu could indeed last 14 days and then of course not all the workers, drivers depo managers etc would be around or fit to remobilise food supplies immediately after quaranteen is lifted.

Cannot remember who it was (AJP Taylor?) who said 'Civilisation is only ever three meals away from barbarism'.

The most limiting thing regarding stocking up for a major emergency is WATER, WATER, WATER!

One can live without food for several weeks, but only a few days without water. If power plants go down, then it is highly likely that water utilties will also go down, at least partially.

And contaminated water can make you sick enough to kill you if you are already weakened.

A few well cleansed 30-gallon plastic trash cans in your basement will do the trick. Just clean them well with chlorine bleach, rinse well, fill with tap water, add a splash or two of bleach, and then seal the lid on with duct tape. Replace once a year. The water may taste of plastic, but it will keep you alive and won't make you sick.


You are 100% correct about H20 and its importance. Provisioning for events like the TEOTWAWKI is similar in many respects to provisioning a sailboat for a long cruise.

For fuel, I like alchohol stoves, partly because alcohol fires can be put out with water but also because I've seen too darn many fatal explosions from gasoline fumes. Propane and butane have their own problems, but on the other hand they are less bad than gasoline by far.

Kerosene stoves have much to recommend them, and in a pinch you can operate them (with a lot of smoke) on diesel.

Sterno is good. Also from Cub Scouts or someplace I remember how to make a "candle stove" from half a dozen candles stuffed into a low coffee can or similar implement.

A gross of household candles is handy to have around. Also, empty two-liter soft-drink bottles and empty liquor bottles are excellent for storing water. If your tap water is good (Mine comes from ancient Pleistocene deposits, deep wells, very pure and good) you may not need the Chlorox. Some tap water is so bad (e.g. that in Minneapolis) that just drinking one glass of it makes me sick, fresh from the tap. So, make sure the water you are storing is good in the first place.

We ignored water in this case, though all understand that water is without doubt the single biggest issue in an extended emergency without power.

To bulk up, we reckoned on 4litres / person / day.
Including the dog, that would be 420 litres for an extended emergency.

In short. If anything goes badly wrong, and unless you have access to clean water, substantial supplies etc, majority of the UK population would be in dire straits pretty soon. The next question must be: Do we have the social cohesion of our grand-parents to ride it through?

About a year ago I bought 6, 2 gallon plastic containers of water from the grocery store and they have all begun to leak for whatever reason.  They were not abused and stored in a cool location out of sunlight.  Anyway, I went to the local Culligan store and bought a few of their heavy plastic pre-filled 5-gallon water containers that are typically inverted and used on portable water coolers.  Hopefully these will hold up much better.    

If you want to try some dehydrated food before you make the commitment of purchasing several cans worth of the stuff, because it can get expensive, Wal-Mart (what can I say I still support the empire) sells individual packages of mountain house dehydrated food in their camping section.  The mountain house dehydrated food in cans is supposed to last 30 years.  

You do not have to spend a lot of money to stock up.

For example, shredded wheat, if kept dry, keeps indefinitely. How do I know this? Because, once when I was living with a family of scientists they found a box from 1943 or thereabouts, and here it was 1957, and so as an experiment we all chowed down a couple of ounces. A bit stale, but it was perfectly good and probably had all or most of its original protein and calories. Oatmeal and rice will also keep indefinitely if kept dry and reasonably cool. Rice needs to be cooked, but oatmeal you can eat right of the box if you have to. Corned beef keeps a long time and is cheap. Beef jerky is very convenient and keeps a long time.

But if you want to go all out, learn to make your own pemmican . . . .

So Don, how about sharing your favourite pemmican recipe with us then?
Limited funds, limited space as an apartment dweller, so cigarettes and alcohol are NOT part of the stash.  A shotgun IS, so anyone trying to take this nicotine-starved, Miller Lite-craving, pre-menopausal wench's beans, rice and Charmin better pack a lunch.
     Actually, I'm semi-remorseful about this flip comment.  I've been following H5N1 since I read Laurie Garrett's "The Coming Plague" a few years ago.  This is the one topic that I won't let my family ignore.  I have sent "Care packages" with resveratrol, curcumin, N95 masks, colloidal silver and "how to" guides to my children and mother.  No one can predict the evolution and resulting consequences of this particular virus, but so far, it seems to be behaving like Peak Oil and global warming, accelerating faster and with more intensity than predicted.  The Flu Wiki is the best on-line resource I know of for pandemic preparedness, and I highly recommend it to everyone.
"semi-remorseful"! I haven't laughed so hard in a week.  Best post of the day. Hands down. Don't hold back next time. Thank you.
When you go to the store, buy an extra can of tuna fish and leave it as an offering in front of your Home Anti-Peak-Oil Cargo Cult Altar (see diagram).
Re:  Peak Debt

Excerpts from the Comptroller General of the United States Report:

"The current financial reporting model does not clearly and transparently show the wide range of responsibilities, programs, and activities that may either obligate the federal government to future spending or create an expectation for such spending. Thus, it provides a potentially unrealistic and misleading picture of the federal government's overall performance, financial condition, and future fiscal outlook. The federal government's gross debt in the consolidated financial statements was about $8 trillion as of Sept. 30, 2005. This number excludes such items as the gap between the present value of future promised and funded Social Security and Medicare benefits, veterans' health care, and a range of other liabilities (e.g., federal employee and veteran benefits payable), commitments, and contingencies that the federal government has pledged to support. Including these items, the federal government's fiscal exposures now total more than $46 trillion, up from about $20 trillion in 2000. This translates into a burden of about $156,000 per American or approximately $375,000 per full-time worker, up from $72,000 and $165,000 respectively, in 2000. These amounts do not include future costs resulting from Hurricane Katrina or the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Continuing on this unsustainable path will gradually erode, if not suddenly damage, our economy, our standard of living, and ultimately our national security...

"Addressing the nation's long-term fiscal imbalance constitutes a major transformational challenge that may take a generation or more to resolve. Given the size of the projected deficit, the U.S. government will not be able to grow its way out of this problem -- tough choices are required."

David M. Walker
Comptroller General of the United States
Dec. 2, 2005

Tough choices always fall on the poor and weak. The GOP will never raise taxes their campaign contributors couldn't avoid paying.
     I read the full column by Mike Shedlock and it begs the question raised by reading several other news releases by the Comptroller's office--  how has the Bush administration allowed David Walker to remain in public office?  I would have thought that they would have muzzled him long ago.
NASA throws its weight behind global warming

A change in policy appears to be occurring after NASA scientist Jim Hansen complained about being silenced because of the Bush administration's opposition to mandatory curbs on greenhouse gases that many scientists tie to global warming.

"A few months ago this press release might have been seriously edited or not approved," Zwally said.

It's really amazing how things are changing now that Bush's poll numbers are tanking.  

Connect the dots. . .

Bush is promising to do everything within his power to combat the IED (Improvised Explosive Device) threat in Iraq.  

Bush is also accusing Iran of providing a lot of the IED's.  

Yet another justification for an attack/limited invasion?

yes and no. You are right, but at the same time this is normal, International "Relations" posturing. Not hearing alarm bells. Yet. Whether that is due to the ones ringing in my ears making me deaf - that is up to you.
So much for Hubbert's curve for Mexico?

"Mexico has made a deep-water oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico that could be larger than the country's giant Cantarell offshore field, President Vicente Fox said on Monday."

Since you cite a politician as the source then pro grano salis is called for.
So now all we need are hurricane-proof off-shore rigs and we're set.
Expansión cites President Fox saying the magnitude of the deposit is not known.

Unknown amount of oil found somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico?  Give me a break!

Well. Lets assume Mr. Fox is telling the truth and the world is endowed with a Cantarell II. The frequency of elephant finds is now such, that a Cantarell II will not save the day in respect to depletion and production flows unless Saudi et al are capable of offsetting declining production flows from Non Opec and probably Opec reserves.

A Cantarell II will help Mexico delay the day of crisis, and probably the US. If it is of sufficient size, broght to production quickly enough and Production flows can be maintained (ie the Saudis can do what we dont think they can do) Then Peak Day may be a little further off.

If a Cantarell II exists, then the danger is that it will act as a sign for the cornucopians and not be seen to be a sign that we are drinking in the last chance saloon

Excellent Energy Bulletin Article by Khebab

Mexico's Ability to Export Oil
"Khebab", GraphOilogy

Khebab's technical analysis demonstrates the high likelyhood of a precipitous drop in Mexican oil exports from a country near its peak in production, with a growing population and appetite for oil.
published March 15, 2006.

Khebab's analysis indicates a Qt of 74 Gb for Mexico.  They are just about at the 50% mark.  Note that the internal Pemex report quoted in a recent WSJ article suggested that Cantarell could be facing decline rates in excess of 40% per year.  

It's going to take a long time to drill all of the developmental wells in the new offshore discovery.   So, even with a new significant discovery, it's quite likely that Mexico is starting a permanent and irreversible decline--as predicted by the HL model.  

Also, keep in mind that the world is using--from nuclear + fossil fuel sources--the energy equivalent of one Gb of oil every five days.

I just saw a TV spot that started out as describing the US population explosion, but turned out to be a Volvo ad.  Apparently they've run a bunch of spoof ads lately.
Per Talking Points Memo

Middle Eastern anger over the decision by the US to block a Dubai company from buying five of its ports hit the dollar yesterday as a number of central banks said they were considering switching reserves into euros. The United Arab Emirates, which includes Dubai, said it was looking to move one-tenth of its dollar reserves into euros, while the governor of the Saudi Arabian central bank condemned the US move as 'discrimination'. Separately, Syria responded to US sanctions against two of its banks by confirming plans to use euros instead of dollars for its external transactions.

That might give the oil bourse some legs.  It just gets better and better.

 Reading through some of the "Predicting Future Oil Prices" thread of 3/6 leaves you with a sense that modeling supply/demand/depletion of oil is maybe a hopelessly complex undertaking. All you can boldly say is prices will for sure fluctuate. For every informed expert (who has forgotten more than you will ever learn about it) saying one thing about this geology or that consideration, you can find another such expert who concludes just the opposite from a slew of other pertintent facts. But what if I told you there was a good way of depletion modeling where you do not have to examine a single rock or monitor the production of a single well? And this modeling has assigned for you, at no cost, a  team of hundreds of thousands of busy researchers to weigh all the critical facts you can think of plus a whole bunch you hadn't even thought of. No, it's not TOD. I speak, of course, of the free market. Efficient market theory says that the market weighs more info than any one person can dig up. And every wrong, numbskull, baseless conclusion drawn from all this info is just as likely to be wrong bullish as it is to be wrong bearish - after all it's baseless, so it's just like flipping a coin. So everything gets looked at and the error is cancelled out. The markets aren't 100% efficient, but you are really butting heads with a monster if you think you can outwork the market on anything.
  So what does all this high-powered work show about oil? Well, if you just look at an oil price chart, you have embargos, invasions, inflation, and rumor making a mess of all the researchers' work. But you can come up with an enlightening chart if you cleanse it of some of these things.  You can do this with an inflation adjusted longterm chart as is found at (a good source of oil info). If you modify the chart to remove some artificial pricing episodes, it looks like this:

If you consider the initial high pricing as being before oil was a market commodity, there are four artificial price gyrations shown. The spike of the early 70s was demand driven (see Simmons' discussion p58,59) but the pricing from the Iran/Iraq supply shock was not geologic supply/demand. Then there was the great price collapse of '97-'99, when the world was "awash in oil". The oil patch was in a depression from the glut of oil. But as Simmons describes in Twilight, p82, there never was a glut of oil, just a glut of bad oil data. This very quickly corrected by '00 kicking off our present climb. So what you have, if you ignore the artificial highs and lows, is a relatively smooth set of data that shows oil as a remarkably stable commodity trading in a range between about $12 to $20 for over 100 years! But then you approach the 1970s. You see a clear breaking of the century-long resistance level, a mild foreshock of the demand driven runup we are seeing now. Stock technical analysis is based on the efficient market theory, and if this were a stock, a technical analyst would say that there was a strong break of a well entrenched resistance level in the 70s climb, then a successful testing of this resistance level as support in the 80s and 90s signaling the beginning a large scale climb.
  Even if you had never heard of Hubbert or seen a bell curve in your life, you would look at this chart and have to say that something monumental has happened with the supply/demand of this resource, and it seems to be centered around the year 2000 give or take 2 or 3 years. What an amazing coincidence!

The Mexicans are cranking up the hyperbole about a new find in GOM ...

Fox: Deep-water oil find may top Cantarell

MAR. 13 5:52 P.M. ET Mexico has made a deep-water oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico that could be larger than the country's giant Cantarell offshore field, President Vicente Fox said on Monday.

The oil find is under 950 meters (3,117 feet) of water and a further 4,000 meters (13,120 feet) underground, Fox said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires. The find will be formally announced Tuesday, he said.

"We have been investing $5 billion (euro4.2 billion) a year in exploration, and that work, that investment, is now bearing fruit," Fox said...

Just a thought. Could this story have something to do with the coming presidential elections in Mexico? In times like these I think it pays to be somewhat sceptical/cynical. If something seems to be too good to be true, it probably is.