The Denver gas situation
Posted by Heading Out on February 21, 2006 - 5:56pm
There was a short period of time last Saturday when Denver was subjected to a rolling blackout as demand met up with a limit on natural gas supply. The company has now explained the problem (under the fold).
Frigid weather -- including a record low of minus-13 degrees Fahrenheit in Denver -- was at the heart of the problem, sending power demand soaring as homes and businesses turned up their heaters.Similar low temperature problems were raising concerns in Russia last month, and in some parts of Eastern Siberia, such as Sakhalin Island, they either close a lot of the field down, or reduce production, until the warmer weather comes in the Spring.
When the weather gets that cold, it can freeze wellheads -- the equipment that controls the flow of gas from the Colorado and Wyoming fields that Xcel power plants rely on to generate about half of the company's electricity. That's what happened Saturday. Heneley said he believed it was the first time the company resorted to power cuts in the winter to avoid collapsing the grid.
The outages affected about 300,000 Xcel customers in the Denver area, with customers in Eagle, Grand Junction, Vail and Aspen also briefly losing service.
Heneley said that demand on Excel's portion of the Colorado power grid peaked Saturday somewhere between 4,100 megawatts and 4,400 megawatts, which is far off the summertime peak of 6,500 megawatts.
The idea that one natural gas production equipment failure could cause Xcel to need to take down the grid would make sense ONLY if there were very little spare supply.
Also, this stuff about 30 minute blackouts isn't terribly accurate. It was more like 45 minutes to an hour. And it wasn't until later in the day that the cause, a natural gas shortage, made it into the media.
However, the story did mention a shortfall, as well as the freezing.
Someone from Denver should address this issue.
He also said all of CIG's wells are in steep decline, except the Jonah field in Wyoming. And their plants are not in great shape, either.
People in Denver are heating their homes primarily in one of two ways. Either they are using natural gas, or electricity. At the same time, the electricity is largely generated by natural gas.
Now, these rolling blackouts were of electricity. AFAIK no natural gas supplies were interrupted to anyone's houses.
The main question is, did demand increase for natural gas for heating purposes, leaving less available for electrical generation, hence the blackouts? Or is natural gas for home heating somehow handled separately and independently from the supply available for electricity?
We see all these figures about electrical supply and demand in terms of so many megawatts, but never any figures for how much natural gas is being supplied or consumed. In theory, it should be just as possible to have natural gas shortages to end users, as electricity shortages; and then we could have natural gas "brownouts", reducing gas pressure in the system. But you never hear about this kind of thing.
The whole issue of how gas and electricity supplies are interrelated has been brought into perspective by this situation, but nobody seems to be explaining it clearly.
In any case I think the industrial users get a discount to make up for their lower priority. And presumably when there is a danger of low pressure somewhere, someone in the gas flow chain decides which valves to close down when. Actually, I'd be interested to know who makes that decision, and where.
Electricity supply can be affected, because gas supplies a lot of the fuel for base electrical load generators and much higher percentage of the peak electrical demand generator capacity. When the gas supply is not available, the peak generation capacity is usually lost exactly at a time when it is needed the most.
The gas distribution companies these days are usually not the same companies that operate the gas wells in the gathering fields and have little control over what goes on out there. That is left up to the field operating companies.
The field operators supply their gas to intrastate transmission companies and they in turn might supply gas to local distribution companies and also to interstate gas transmission companies to move to farther out marketing areas.
Normally all gas quantities are set up about 30 days in advance, based on last months demand, traditional use patterns, long term weather forecasts and excess capacity transportation requests that some customers make from time to time. This information is continuously updated, but unexpected weather and unusually high demands sometimes screws things up. This is especially when the weather is so bad as to affect the well supplies in the field (see other posts above).
When field supplies are affected, the gas transmission companies sometimes can make up the difference in any stored supplies they may have. Unfortunately, there are not too many storage locations in the whole of the US. If the gas transmission companies do not have their own (or contracted) storage volumes to draw upon, they can survive for a limited amount of time on the pressurized gas they had in the pipeline when the supply shut off. The time they can survive depends on the number of pipelines they have going to the affected area, the length, diameter and the pressure the pipelines had when the supplies were shut off. For a large capacity pipeline system, this can be days. For a small distribution company located rather close to the supplying gas field, it may only be a matter of hours.
The coordination of all of this process is handled by the gas transmission company's marketing division that makes the demand projections, the maintenaince division which keeps everyone updated with the latest capacity statistics and the operation departments, which monitor realtime flows into and out of the system and all along the pipelines, usually from a centrally located gas control station in the basement of their headquarters (in some cases 1500 miles away from their primary source wells). From there a 1 or a few gas control operators watch the remaining flows and pressures and bring on supplies from storage or other areas if they can. Automatic controls can open/close valves, start compressors and flow paths between subsystems to try to solve the problem. If everything fails, the gas controllers will start issuing warnings to emergency authorities and hospitals and other critical customers on when they will be out of business, so emergency generators at those locations can be warmed up and running in time to deal with total loss of supply.
Its quite a complicated process to coordinate all of those continuously changing variables and really it is amazing that it only fails the few number of times it actually does. The gas controllers today have advanced realtime SCADA systems, realtime pipeline hydraulic simulators they can run what-if scenarios and genetic and neural network algorithms figuring up to the minute supply and demand patterns and corresponding optimum flow path and compressor settings to maximize flows while minimizing power consumption. Usually all of this goes on without anyone taking notice (or handing out any attaboys either). To design a 100% failsafe system would require an investment of about 10 times that of the 98.5% reliability figure that they usually try to maintain.
"Town Gas" may be delivered through several pressure reduction, metering and mercaptan additive stations scattered at various locations throughout the city.
I have taken a look to see what I can find out about Xcel Gas while I sit here in Spain. The website has some interesting stuff that you can kinda' get an idea of what's going on.
They appear to be mostly interested in generating and transmission of electricity. I can only find one obscure reference to gas transmission,
http://www.xcelenergy.com/XLWEB/CDA/0,3080,1-1-1_16699-14983-2_171_256-0,00.html
click over to the right on,
Natural Gas Transportation information
where you get connected to Public Service Co of Colorado
In the menus there,
<restriction history> shows common winter flow order days
The flow order policy is explained in the <new> OFO Gas Days just above.
<gas transport supplier list> Interesting!
shows that they can (maybe) get gas from a lot of sources from many different companies.
<load forecasting tip> Very interesting! they explain to their customers to review their load requests for various low temperature forecasts. Not uncommon for customers to ignore these and just stay with their usual nomination.
<Nomination Calendar> HERE'S THE PHONE NUMBERS OF THE GAS SCHEDULERS. GIVE THEM A CALL AND FIND OUT WHAT HAPPENED YOURSELF.
<Nomination Procedure Review> Here's how large consumers schedule their deliveries. Note: they don't work weekends.
A lot of utilities have this kind of stuff on their website and its surprizing how much you can find out if you want to. Another place to try is at the website of the State Administrative Office that regulates utilities in your state, ie. Texas Railroad Commission, etc. Sometimes they even have detailed maps for all electrical lines and pipelines in each county available online.
Of course, kudos to TOD for bringing us the info.
Kunstler's power was off until midday Monday, making his blog update late. He was surprisingly unprepared.
I live in the midwest and rely solely on NG for heat, hot water, and cooking. The whole grid for heating is based on NG, no oil burners at all. Obviously secondary heat and cooking is based on electricity.
How do I build a redundant system if both my primary and secondary heat is based on NG? Yes I have a wood burning stove already but it is only for heating some of my livable space and I can't cook with it.
Clearly there is coal fired electric generation but it sounds like all peak capacity is based on NG which will be the first to get shut down. If we get in a really short supply situation is it the consensus here that residential NG supply will be the last to go down?
Thoughts on possible scenarios and options?
Thanks.
You could get an additional or replacement wood burning stove that enables some cooking. You could build a wood fire for cooking and a wood fired oven, if adequate wood supplies are likely. A solar cooker is surprisingly effective for long, slow cooking. Bottled gas cookers are good but bottled gas is expensive, might be worth having for a medium term stopgap. I have begun to look into generating biogas for cooking, probably only worthwhile if you keep animals (pigs, cows in particular). A small multifuel camping type stove could be useful in emergencies.
If you have a huge bank of storage batteries charged with wind turbines or photo-voltaic solar chargers, then 12 volt technology is both robust relatively simple. And, of course, with an inverter you can run any 110 volt A.C. appliance on 12 volts.
For a thorough understanding of survival technologies, I suggest a close study of Native American cultures from the northern United States and Canada. Also, if you study how farmers got by a couple of hundred years ago, you will learn useful things.
I have read widely on and can do the survival skills and am comfortable going that route if TSHTF. I really am interested in maintaining current living space for my family and above suggestions are great and an addition to what I currently have. I have multiple camping stoves and fuel, barbecue grill, and fireplaces and will be adding rain barrels soon. I am already in a small but old and rock solid house space.
What I am digesting is if/when the grid supplied energy is going to become unreliable. I have researched wind and solar as options for electric supply, along with storage. I am optomistic that biodigesters and methane sources may augment the existing NG supply in my region. I just wanted some comments on how that supply was liable to get distributed. I have a better feel now and can set timelines for getting off the grid.
Too bad Excel's website isn't this good.
Picture of a Gas Control Center. Notice the cool Italian sweeping design look! http://www.eni.it/home/home_en.html
the red lights in clusters are compressors turned on or off. The lights by themselves are valves between transmission lines, laterals and local distribution divisions within the system.
Its getting cool. Time to turn that electric heater on. No local gas pipeline distribution sys in my area and the bottled gas is a hassle.
click on the control panel and you get directed to a page where you can,
get some daily flow figures, and trends.
down in storage menu, there are some nice diagrams and pics
with links to,
Treatment shows the dehy columns
Compression from 1125 to 2700 psi for storage injection
Dispatching,
<Gas storage in Italy> shows all storage locations and links to technical details of each site.
<LNG Dossier> shows just about everything you ever wanted to know about LNG and how its tanked around my front yard in the Mediterranean Sea. On a clear day I can see 'um out there.
<Gas Pipelines Dossier> Everything you wanted to know about how gas gets to Italy and how its transported and used.
links to gas to the home and the industrial infrastructure are good. hack away there.
<National Grid Pipeline Network> gets you to a nicely detailed map of Italian pipelines downloadable in pdf.
Over to the right <Information to shippers> you can get highly detailed maps of the entire distribution system in Italy. Just keep drilling down.
At one point the movie describes the California energy crisis of 2000, the rolling blackouts. It was just Enron flipping the light switch and raising every Californian's electric bill. The movie includes news footage, with the reporter talking about "the strained electrical grid", who obviously didn't know what was going on.
Bottom line is, the reasons for this outage may not be known for some time, ... for some reason, this reminded me of that event.
Enron just "played the game" for brutal profit maximization, but so did Los Angeles Water & Power, BC Hydro, etc. with a bit less brutality.
Do not get your facts or history from movies.
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean someone isn't out to get you.
And just because we're on that 'bumpy plateau' don't think valves can't be closed at an unfortunate time ...
BTW, while watching the movie, I commented that it made Grey Davis look less stupid than he did on TV back during the crisis. ;)
And in 2000, when I had submitted again, the 2001 Davis administration paid twenty times as much for natural gas power as it paid for solar power from the Luz establishment in the Mojave. So I pulled the patent again!
With peak natural gas in the past, now I am putting it in again. I'll keep it in this time because we are going to need it, and no matter how much they hate solar power they are going to need mine too much for the Federal Government to refuse to license me the areas of the desert I need, and they will pay me for the patent because I'm not going to build one till someone pays for it with a long term purchase contract. Since the patent runs twenty years I can afford to wait.
Also, Australia is also starting to run a little short of natural gas in the east (not in the west) and could use a little peaking power to add to the Snowy. Italy and Spain are getting nervous about relying on Russian natural gas. Most other countries don't pay for patents so I don't include them as customers. Dubai for instance is burning natural gas that they could sell if I thought that they would pay me. Ditto the rest of the Gulf and MENA in general.