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Sadly, here is a link to a Yahoo article:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/nigeria_sectarian_violence
excerpts:
----------------
Anti-Muslim Riot in Nigeria Turns Deadly
By DULUE MBACHU, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 13 minutes ago
Christian mobs rampaged through a southern Nigerian city Tuesday,
burning mosques and killing several people in an outbreak of anti-
Muslim violence that followed deadly protests against caricatures of
the Prophet Muhammad over the weekend.
Residents and witnesses in the southern, predominantly Christian city
of Onitsha said several Muslims with origins in the north were beaten
to death by mobs which also burned two mosques there.
"The mosque at the main market has been burnt and I've counted at
least six dead bodies on the streets," Izzy Uzor, an Onitsha resident
and businessman, told The Associated Press by telephone. "The whole
town is in a frenzy and people are running in all directions."
The violence appeared to be in reprisal for anti-Christian violence
Saturday in the mostly Muslim northern city of Maiduguri in which
thousands of Muslims protesting caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad
attacked Christians and burned churches, killing at least 18 people.
Police and government officials were not immediately available for
comment.
Nigeria, Africa's most populous country of more than 130 million
people, is roughly divided between a predominantly Muslim north and a
mainly Christian south. Thousands of people have died in religious
violence in Nigeria since 2000.
Saturday's protest over the cartoons of Prophet Muhammad in Maiduguri
marked the first violent demonstrations over the issue in Nigeria.
Police say at least 18 people, most of them Christians, died, and 30
churches were burned down. The Christian Association of Nigeria said
at least 50 people were killed in the violence.
------------------
My comments:
The elites must be celebrating! If the written word is more powerful
than the sword, and a picture paints a thousand words: then it is now
a proven fact that a cartoon is magnitudes more powerful than the
sword. The perfect dopamine ICBM [Inner Cranial Brain Missile] to setoff an explosion of the worst
impulses in the reptilian human brain.
It is the wolfpack dream come true when the reindeer start cutting
each other's throats. No wasting of energy chasing down the prey,
just sauntering up to a lavish feast. Imagine the exurburant war-
profiteering opportunities as 130 million descend into religious
decimation. Can you hear the elites laughing as any reindeer deaths
means more oil for further elite power consolidation and less for us?
Hubbert was correct in his theory of eventual 'energy depletion', but
this is just the geo-physical outlook. The elites are operating
using the realpolitik theory of 'energy deletion': create wars to
keep as much oil and gas in the ground as possible; a purposeful
energy cliff. The elite can always afford their lavish lifestyles,
the suffering of the proles is simply not their problem, in fact, it
is their intentional program.
Simple periodic tweaking of the 'Porridge Principle of Metered
Decline' works wonders, doesn't it? Detritus supplies are finite,
but the possibilities to eliminate detritovores are infinite! The
optimum curve matching of population to energy is to reduce headcount
to reduce demand for energy.
With the passage of time, we can expect more cartoons and other
propaganda to setoff war supporters vs anti-war protester violence,
racial and ethnic conflicts, religious pograms, workers vs. the
unemployed, car-owners vs bicyclists, landowners vs renters, sewer-
users vs. humanure advocates, even young against old. We can also
expect the wolves to feast upon the reindeer intra-conflict every
step of the way.
Unfortunately, I fear
us reindeer are SUV-headed down the hard asphalt path of 'Nuke their
Ass--I want Gas'. Unfortunately, there are too few who are willing
to cutoff their 'chrome penis' of vehicular vanity, followed by the
self-inflicted cutting off of their electrical 'balls' of light and
heat. The Dieoff is a fact of Nature and we dwell within its
Domain. Genetically, we detritovores are not designed to
energetically mutilate ourselves.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
You know, you should really put a bit more feeling into your posts :-)
I think that before you assume that the Mysterious Evil Elders in Purple Robes are behind this one, you should realize that ethnic/religious/tribal rivalry and butchery in Africa is at least as old as ethnic/relgious/tribal rivalry and butchery in Europe. I don't think the problem in Nigeria needed much of a helping hand by Western outside forces: the Nigerians seem to manage quite well in making their own hell, thank you very much.
Which is not to say that we should not be concerned. We are. And the only reason we are is because of the oil. If it weren't for the oil, Nigeria would get about as much US attention as did the genocide in Rawanda, which was zero.
However, I'm sure that some of the more radical elements in our society wouldn't mind seeing Africa decimated to create more 'lebensraum' for Westerners.
Once the fossil fuel detritus is burned up, us humans will be remelded into intimate contact with the forces of Nature again; just as we were before the discovery of coal, natgas, and oil. How many have thought as they open a longneck of beer that the energy required could have saved a life elsewhere? Very few. Economics, by its inherent design, creates an infinite spectrum of elites. My examples of wolfpack vs reindeer is a vast oversimplification of what is actually a worldwide energy competition to determine dominance.
It is better if one visualizes a entire 'humanimal taxonomy'; lions, wolves, bears, eagles, badgers, elk, deer, antelope, sparrows, trout, pigeons, gnats, etc. Those who have no access to anything detritus-derived; their lifestyle is strictly bio-solar driven could be considered 'Human plants'-- maybe a primitive tribe could be found in New Guinea to fit this humanimal description.
At the other end of the spectrum are the very powerful and rich who essentially are the keystone predators: their natural inclination is to make choices that impact through the entire humanimal foodchain, just as Yellowstone wolves culling elk increases beaver habitat and sapling regrowth along streambanks.
The IMF, WTO, CIA, and other 3-letter orgs is nothing more than the exosomatic extension of humanimal fangs. Wolves can only grasp what their fangs can reach-- Humanimal fangs can extend worldwide due to detritus-derived exosomatic guns, bombs, propaganda, interest financing, and political streamlining of resource flows.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
As the results of these cartoons have played out (I have seen them and it would take a particularly perversely sensitive yet aggressive mind to take such extreme offence) I have wondered if a stream of ever more offensive cartoons might create more fervent riots and deaths amongst the faithful?
Ooops, a mite non-pc maybe, but I'd quite like all fervent monotheists to self-immolate and solve the majority of human problems by doing so. Apologies for my biased and perhaps somewhat (re-) vengeful perspective.
Institutional religion is just the actionated creation of the higher brain's functions having to much idle-time. Here is a Google Video link of formerly devout Texas Baptists converting to Islam [best if you have hi-speed connection]:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9184353144432289069
All people of any faith should be asking themselves: why does my brain make me act this way, and can I mentally rewire it to see my actual reality?
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
It's good for me.
(After all, Texas was first to go into decline.)
Oh Lordy, Make Me a Muslim.
TotoNeil, thank you for bringing the word of Allah to this infidel's tongue. Praised be his name and pass the peas. Good video !!!!
BTW, can you recommend any decent discount-burkah shops for after when the SHTF?
To all people who seek truth and faith I would say: why be deluded by others' supposed truth which they clearly use to manipulate you rather than question and seek your own understanding of truth?
I do agree with your comment on brain wiring. We should all strive to understand how we are wired to distort our perception and do our best to correct that so we might begin to see for real.
Hi Bob. What kind of chrome penis do you drive?
Do you use a central ground rod or alligator clips?
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thxs for responding. I drive 'old blue', my 1995 4.3 liter v-6 GMC shortbed standard cab pickup with approx. 120,000 miles on it. I have never had sufficient funds to own a new vehicle. I am a 'dead ringer' for Osama Bin Laden: 6'5" and 185 lbs, scraggly beard, and even more ugly-- don't try to kidnap me trying to get the $50 million in reward money, my friends jokingly claim first dibs if they ever find me passed out drunk--LOL! My long legs preclude me from comfortably fitting in many cars, but a pickup allows sufficient room so my knees are not hitting the dash, or my left leg is not pinned between the steering wheel and door.
I did not get my first vehicle until I was nearly 20 years old [nearly 51 now]-- had no problem with my long legs of pedaling over forty miles a day to work and school here in Phx [had a 175 customer paper-route for five years from 11-16]. It would probably kill me now if I had to do that again.
Got my first used pickup [1969 GMC v-6] just in time for the '73 energy crunch a short time later. Remember waiting hours in a gas-line to fillup my tank. That night some bastard took a pipewrench to my locking gascap and siphoned out my tank. No fun driving around a potentially huge Molotov cocktail with a rag stuffed into my gastank fillerneck, a mere couple of feet from my head, until I could get scrape up the cash to get it repaired.
Ever since the 70s energy crunch, I have been a gas-conserving turtledriver--not a rabbit-racer. In fact, I am so good at hitting intersections in the 'green' that my pickup is still on the original brakes!
I first found out about Peakoil and Dieoff in summer of '03, so I consider myself a relative newbie. Changed my Life, as I am sure you will all agree. Fortunately, Phx is an easy place to conserve home energy-- we never turn on the heat, but lightly bundle up. During the summer, we run a swamp cooler, which uses a fraction of the energy of an air-conditioning unit. My neighbors think I am nuts when I bring up Peakoil and Dieoff--they burn all the energy they can afford, porch lights burning all night and that sort of thing.
Spend a lot of time emailing govt orgs and influential others energy saving ideas and appeals for them to study Dieoff.com-- never get a reply-- I think they have a preferential agenda to make sure they survive. Kunstler, among others luminaries, predicts the Southwest to become mostly ghost towns postPeak--I am inclined to agree-- present drought is 120+ days without rain. I often wonder how Oregon and Washington will handle a thirty million people migration influx when Phx, Tucson, LA, San Diego, and hundreds of smaller cities start heading north. My guess is a postPeak civil war. Time will tell. I am the primary caregiver for my ailing mother--cannot leave until she is gone, but I hope she lives forever.
Got a nice 18-speed bicycle set up with baskets all around if a sudden energy crunch hits and I have to pedal-- people call it the Pee-Wee Herman bike, but hopefully it is so funky that no kid will want to steal it postPeak. It is an oversize frame and the seat is really high [I am tall, remember?]-- most kids will bust their balls on the crossframe trying to steal it. Pedaling can be done year round in Phx if you really tank up on water during the summer to prevent dehydration.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Four years ago I read about Bush's new house in Crawford -- state-of-the-art energy-independent, year-round water cisterns, solar-powered, the whole bit.
It confused me at the time; but now I understand. He definitely plans to be part of the wolfpack.
Thxs for responding. Good for you, living on a ranch-- you automatically get more eco-support from Nature than 99% of us. This eco-buffer will be crucial in the years ahead, I hope you have a good hand-pumpable waterwell or stream on your property.
Water skirmishes with shootings were common out west a hundred years ago--legislators and lawyers took over the battle, but Peakoil and Overshoot will bring back the old ways with a vengeance. Most people have no idea that most water is PUMPED UPHILL [water follows money] to supply their taps, this will end when the energy is gone. Phx uses an estimated 20% of its total energy for water and sewer systems: CAP water is pumped 1300ft uphill so it will flow in canals to Phx and Tucson. I tell people to carry a five gallon water jug a couple of miles to get an idea of how much energy is required.
Obviously, water is crucial to Life--WTSHTF all Hell will break loose-- it is a key inflection point for violence to break out. Google Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Sudan to get a future taste of what insufficient water means to people and wildlife. Truly Sad.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Rural areas & small towns will be hit by the problems of transportation in a less than total collapse society. In that case (less than total collapse) New Orleans (and St. Louis, Memphis and other river & rail cities) will do well. We have great rail connections (6 of 7 large North American railroads come to New Orleans), barge connections (Mississippi River & Intracoastal Canal) and a seaport. Compact and low oil use by original design. Nearby seafood and land that could be farmed again. Sugarcane that can grow without fertilizer, and remnant oil & gas production.
OTOH, living 40 miles from the nearest WalMart & General Supply store can be quite a handicap for many ranchers and farmers with high enough fuel costs. Supplying electricity , telephone & fuel to dispersed rural communities will become more expensive. Perhaps technology (over the horizon cell phones with semi-broadband internet bandwidth) can solve the telecommunications problem. Once a month trips to town may become more common.
My impression is that most rural & small town residents live on what my grandfather called "pet farms" and commute long distances to jobs elsewhere.
http://www.army.mil/usapa/epubs/pdf/r210_35.pdf
It is amazing the level of disconnect within our society: people live in a Disneyland mindset while the elites are moving full-speed ahead for the coming cull. It blows my mind that simple denial keeps Dieoff.com from being the numero uno website in the world.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Now that's depressing. I'm already contemplating my move back to Oregon from one of the other nonsustainable monstrosities, i.e. Atlanta.
I am a hardcore Doomer who believes in the fast-crash, but I hope I am wrong, and we can get a slow decline. What worries me most about Peakoil is the effect it will have upon our food and water. People can quickly scale up to pedaling a bicycle twenty or thirty miles a day if they really have go that distance to support their families, but the real future trick will be having sufficient food and water. I don't think there is any solution.
If I was a farmer who knew about Peakoil and I had no mortgage on my land-- I would be drastically changing my methods and crops so that I could be self-sustainable as possible. For example, if I owned 5,000 acres that would be normally a corn crop, I probably would immediately change 2000 acres over to be woodland and natural habitat so that I would have a future source of firewood, nut trees, berry plants, and wildlife to hunt. Probably another 2000 acres so I could pasture just a few oxen, horses, dairy cattle, pigs, sheep, etc, and a large family garden. Then maybe the last 1000 acres to growing commercial corn or soybeans, but shrinking this amount every year, so that I could grow cotton exclusively for myself.
Now if every farmer starts doing this, pretty damn quickly you have major food shortages in the cities and towns. Why would the farmers do this? As oil prices escalate upwards, the farmer won't be able to afford the energy to grow the usual 5,000 acres anyhow, so he might just as well put his efforts into his own survival using his labor and permiculture techniques. Too bad for the rest of us.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
That is the main reason why I think we will have a fast crash-- to minimize opportunities for ERoVI. My feeling is at crunch time: most urban and suburban dwellers will be forced to die n place, instead of being allowed to roam the countryside killing the farmers, then looting for whatever food they can find.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Our ranch is only 120 acres, irrigated. We raise high-value registered Angus, so we can survive on sirloins if we have to.
We're already going permaculture, planting a woodlot, adding PV panels for a kind of parallel future if it comes to it. We've also formed a quiet coalition with other farmers and neighbors who understand what's coming. We have a barter system in place.
We have rich, volcanic soils and gravity-fed water systems. I do worry that the irrigation water might be requisitioned to try to keep the sunbelt sprawl afloat, but we also have springs and creeks here.
I don't know if anyone beside the oligarchs will really get through a die-off, but we're organized and we're going to try.
What volumes of water and what falls (vertical distance) might be harnessed by putting into a pipe to make some hydropower ?
Make $ today, and keep LED lights and some motors going "later".
For Power Generation:
Windmills
Photovoltaics (Silicon and others)
Solar-Stirling
Solar-Steam
Hydro
For Power Storage:
Water lift
Compressed Air
Zinc Cycle
Anyone?
A pair of oxen walking around a turnstile.
For power storage:
Hay loft.
G
Additional power generation:
Geothermal power. (Depends on geology like hydro power)
Nuclear power
Genetically engineerd plants (carbon gathering)
Perhaps even solar power satellites
Hand cranked electronics.
Short term energy storage:
Accumulators in plug-in wehicles.
Hot water or melted salts for heating and running hot water.
Cold water for air conditioning.
Long term energy storage:
Stockpiled food.
Sugar.
Dry biomass.
Charcoal
Liquid synthetisized fuels.
Nuclear fuels, probably breeded nuclear fuels.
Also, small hydro, particularly in the US, was never exploited. Say 10 MW to 1/4 MW, both storage and run of river schemes. It is interesting to see new schemes being developed in New Zealand today. Almost all 10 MW or less.
Tidal hydro has some quite limited expansion possibilities with higher prices for fossil fuels. Peaks on a 25 hour cycle (forgot minutes).
Uncontained propeller hydro (River, Gulf Stream, has a maximum extraction efficiency of ~10%) but some possibilities exist.
Solar can be divided into solar water heating (a no-brainer" in most cases) and solar electric with solar processing still largely unexploited. Mirror based solar electric has an apparent niche in deserts below 35 latitude.
Steam geothermal is being actively exploited where available. The larger "hot rock" geothermal is still in rare experimental projects.
Landfill gas and sewage digester gas are being actively exploited. And even chicken guts to diesel ! :-)
Hi Alan,
Yes, there are still a few hydro possibilities here in NZ. There is a proposal for a relatively small one about half an hour's drive north of me here.
By the way, that "Meridian Energy" company I pointed you to the other day turns out to be a state-owned enterprise (SOE), so I doubt you can buy shares in them. I'm even more interested in switching over to them now. They are not quite the cheapest in my area, but I think it is worth paying slightly more to support the renewables. Another one of the big energy companies ("Contact Energy") here in NZ has just merged with (read bought out by) an Australian company. I hope a lot more NZers switch from Contact to Meridian to stop NZ dollar profits moving over the Tasman Sea into the pockets of Australian shareholders.
New Zealand has a few of these "state-owned enterprises" that have to operate like private companies (and make profits for the government) but do not have to pander to shareholders (apart from their main one, of course). Air New Zealand is another example. They can get a bit stroppy, though. The SOE "Transpower", which maintains a lot of the main electricity 'backbone' around the country, is currently arguing with the government about rate increases (the government doesn't think the increases are necessary).
With Maui natural gas declining by 17% each year, and new NG discoveries being quite small, NZ may well end up with a 100% renewables grid. You seem to have enough hydro (and a bit of geothermal) to support wind filling most of the gap left by NG depletion with rest of the expansion coming from hydro & geothermal. (Note: Wind has problems supplying a high % of the grid when the balance is fossil fuel, but not with the balance being hydro).
King Country & TrustPower have also said (in their annual reports) that they intend to stay 100% renewable. Just not willing to sign off forever, under all cirucmstances.
I thought about getting the car out today ...
That's the phrase I use now, "get the car out." I got a kick out of the passage in Bill Bryson's "Notes from a Small Island" in which he claims people used to own cars in England, but not actually drive them. It was a big event to drive to the seaside, etc. I'm sure there is some poetic license there, but it's funny.
Anyway, I ended up having a great ride through town to the post office, the bookstore, the market. I even beat a hummer through traffic ;-)
I'm glad I didn't get the car out.
I'm thinking of running a windmill to lift weights as the storage medium. Don't know about the conversion efficiency, but you wouldn't get the drainage you have with Batteries or Compressed Gasses. Someone said Zinc Cycle, what's that?
But the Bike idea is right on line! We could do SO much with pedal-powered travel, and we'd probably relive an aspect of our childhoods, too. Bikes can be such a joy! I'm also adapting some shop-tools for Pedal and Treadle use. An old Treadle Sewing machine is becoming a Scroll-saw, and an Exercise bike will have a better flywheel attached, and an output that can run sanders, drills, grainmills, small generators, etc. I've been wondering about a Pedal-powered Cart for 2 to 3 people, with Solar Assisted Electric for hills. Did anyone hear about the Village (India or Africa) where they installed a Little Playground Carousel for the local kids which would pump the water from their well?
My Makita is getting adapted to charge all its batts on the windowsill, and I'm looking for 'retired' (9.6v) Makita equipment to MOD into other applications, like Blenders, Flashlights, Cabinet Lights, Cell-Chargers, Clock Radios, etc.
None of them big solutions on their own, but overall stabilising, since they're not all chained to a single, distance source of power.
jokuhl, I heard about Zinc cycle last year and blogged a few references. Engineer-Poet (Who I think comments here) did some interesting calculations on it.
There are several companies working on zinc-air batteries (both primary and secondary cells); Power Air is finally touting its refillable OEM cell here (no pics).
On the surface these things would seem to be a natural for a pluggable hybrid. Is there any place one can go to order them, or do you need to be buying in quantity?
The advantage is the high energy density and fast refilling time. If you have the infrastructure to regenerate zinc, you could refill the zinc-air cells about as fast as a fuel tank.
It was not that rare. Living on the outskirts of London as a boy in the fifties we had a family car that was only used at the weekends if then. I walked a mile to school, my brother took the train to his school, my father took the train to the school he taught at and my mother walked to the local shops or took a bus if it rained. We were by no means unusual in doing so.
Public transport was used by nearly everyone. Business men in the stereotype English Bowler hat, rolled umbrella, briefcase and pinstriped suit sat alongside everyone else. Buses on most routes ran at 5 or 10 minute intervals so there was no need to plan around timetables. A fair number of the busier routes used electric trolley buses with the current collected by pantographs from overhead wires. The vast majority of the rail routes build up during the Victorian rail boom were still in use so there was very extensive network of London suburban above ground trains as well as the vast underground network further in that is still there.
A fair bit of this has fallen away and cars are used every day if practicable but the bulk of the infrastructure is still there and its use is if anything increasing. The London congestion charge of five pounds a day every time you take a car into central London with automatic registration number recognising cameras around the boundary of this area has increased the use of public transport. Tax that takes the price of petrol up £0.97/litre ($6.5/US gallon) and annual car tax from £55 ($96) to £170 ($298) dependant on its CO2 emission rating helps to keep away the general perception that public transport is only for the poor and those that cannot drive. We even have pedal driven cabs of the sort seen in places like Singapore.
We still have a lot to do to reduce reliance on private cars but London is quite an eye opener for visitors from cities where the car is almost a necessity.
In fact, the times that I had the car were more hassle because I had to worry about where to park the damn thing!
Yes, I would say that there is a helluva lot of 'fat' in the 'younger' countries around the world (USA, Canada, Australia, NZ, etc.) that would easily remove about 50% of our current energy requirements.
All we need are some good, sustained, high prices to force us to 'get trim'.
Well-designed and highest-quality hand tools are difficult to obtain, because the cheap stuff has flooded the market, and the typical American approach is to buy something, wreck it with neglect or abuse, throw it away and buy another.
Blacksmiths know how to make good tools. There are some very fine craftsmen and craftswomen of hand tools working today, and were I to advise a young person as to a good profession for the future one that I would surely suggest is an apprenticeship to a master blacksmith.
A related "keeper" technology is the know-how that goes with being a farrier.
Despite the fact that I chose a carrer in computers, I have always longed to be a blacksmith (a previous life maybe?).
Indeed, last April, when I personally discovered "Peak Oil", I actually tried to find out how to learn to be a smithy. Unfortunately there are no 'traditional' blacksmiths in the area any more and certainly no-one who looks like they could teach me. I'm still searching, though. There's a local artist who uses metal to make some amazing sculptures, and he's probably my best bet. I just need to try and persuade him to do some weekend tutoring.
This is one of my biggest fears about Peak Oil. I believe that so many of the older, low energy ways of doing things have been lost forever, and we are going to have a hard time when push comes to shove. I recently got a very interesting book from the library called "Forgotten Arts and Crafts" by John Seymour (the english self-sufficiency guru) about all the forgotten trades (things like coopers, forresters, wheelrights, etc.). It was amazing to read how intertwined and interdependent these professions were.
I search for my tools in antique shops, second-hand shops and estate auctions. There is an amazing shop about 2 hours south of here in a place called Woodville. Their on-line catalogue only has a small fraction of the items in the actual shop itself. It had all sorts or really useful 'powerdown' artefacts from wooden wood planes, to hard-turned butter spinners. Every time I pass through there (not very often) I try to pick up something unusual.
Whatever stage of life you are at I strongly recommend spending some time learning and developing a few basic skills, whatever suits your inclinations and opportunities. Growing vegetables is an obvious one - I thought near everyone could do this. I slipped back into it as a glove, but 90%+ haven't a clue. There are so many others: milking, butter and cheesemaking, yogurt, breadmaking - just proper damn cooking for godsakes, soap and candles, chickens, rabbits, bees, wind power, micro hydro, solar power, biogas, herbal medicine, entertaining as in singing, playing, storytelling. The list is near endless.
I'm sure it will be fun, it might save your life.
My wife found this Skin Deep website that cast doubt on all our usual soap, shampoo, etc., so she took up soapmaking a month ago. You can buy very nice soaps, Kiss My Face, Burt's Bees, etc., but they ain't cheap.
I suggested that she learn to use readily available materials rather than simply order a hobbyist kit from some website. I was interested to see how good a soap she could make without using coconut oil. She agreed, and now several dozen bars of Olive/Lavender/Sage and Unscented Olive Oil soap are curing on our shelves.
Next I want her to tackle shampoo, toothpaste and cold fusion.
I'd be very interested in the variants like shampoo, other detergents (for washing up, clothes) if you try them, and particularly toothpaste.
A while back I had an Ezboard for all sorts of these basic technologies but an Ezglitch last June wiped it and I haven't resurrected it, time I did.
For example, let's say you are called upon to design an engine to push a ship weighing 8,000 tons at 37mph. Also, said ship must have 450 inhabitants and plenty of "fun options" - weapons systems. In 1962 some engineer was called upon to do just that - and the Belknap model warship was manufactured for the US Navy. I was on just that type of ship, the USS Belknap, the namesake specimen. It took 88,000 horsepower to push that thing to the 37mph. (33 knots) It used (dangerous) 1200psi steam at 900F. A steam leak can cause a broom to smoulder, and any exposed pipe will light off a cigarette.
No doubt steam is dangerous. I don't like the stuff. But the trick is that no Stirling engine can compete with a steam turbine engine system in a warship. They just so far lack the "oomph". Like a Stirling, a steam engine depends on a temperature difference. But with heating oil as the fuel, the steam plant wins hands-down for compact size for power created.
Fun note: USS Bainbridge (CGN-25) was a Belknap model but with the nuke powerplant option. I was on the USS Belknap (CG-26) the namesake ship of that make/model. (Bath Ironworks, 1962 model year)
How do you imagine "sustainable" living? Do you truly believe that "power down", "relocalisation", "self-sufficiency" etc. etc. must be started up on a large scale now? Has anybody tried to live like that?
I'd like to get a more clear picture of what is the idea behind that, because if the thing I'm imagining is correct, this will wipe us out much faster than nuclear weapons, IMNSHO.
Well, there is one huge step that isn't that difficult if you live in a good place, and that's ditching the car. No one is living totally sustainable, but we're all in varying degrees. You can shop at a local food coop that buys good from local farmers, you can reduce your energy use by putting on a sweater, and you can use earth-based building materials instead of fabricated ones.
I'm trying to get a handle of ideas like getting off the grid, growing my own food, self-sufficiency etc. etc. I'm not sure if the people who proclaim them know exactly what they mean and how far are these ideas from reality.
How can one achieve self-sufficiency for example? If you get sick who is going to cure you? If you live in a community will the doctor have an X-Ray scanner or produce penicillin? Will there be doctors if this one dies and there are no universities? I will not continue this is just one of the thousand problems with that.
A few weeks ago, they had an international conference about hand transplants. Western doctors were aghast when Chinese surgeons said the cost of anti-rejection drugs was a major issue in their country. The government paid for the drugs for the first year, then the patients were on their own. They could not possibly afford them. Some asked the doctors to amputate their new hands.
On the bright side, many of the illnesses we die of are caused by the modern lifestyle. Cancer, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, etc. The 80/20 rule applies to health care. Hopefully, we'll be able to maintain the low cost/high benefit things for a long time. (Sanitation, vitamins, antibiotics, vaccines.) Very expensive high-tech care (organ transplants, care of extremely premature babies, etc.) will probably be the first cut.
In the long run, I think it will be quite difficult to maintain our technology in the face of powerdown. Only a few generations ago, most kids didn't finish school, because they were needed on the farm. We simply did not have the surplus that allowed so many people to specialize in occupations other than farming. I suspect that is the future we are headed back to.
Nobody really knows how much of what's worthwhile in our way of life will survive a powerdown. For that matter, no one really knows how much of our way of life is really worthwhile!
BUT, I don't think we have to start over or start at the bottom. Certainly cars have to go. Certainly a lot of stuff is going to have to relocalized. Certainly the US suburban way of life has got to go. Sprawl is dead. Have to go up a few floors. Walking and biking is in. Whatever Mao did wrong, the bikes weren't one of his mistakes.
Bananas from wherever are dead. A lot of what Kunstler says makes sense on these issues. But, I do think national and international communication can be kept up -- it's cheap enough energywise if done sensibly. Therefore science and culture can be kept up.
The third world might be a lot better off. When no one can afford to bomb them, or dump on them, or destabilize them, I think there may ultimately be positive developments there for people.
But I think there's going to be a lot of suffering down slope, maybe for us much more than the third world. We don't have a realistic view of life and death. Enjoying the best the oil age has to offer has denied us that.
The Internet will survive for quite some time, but I expect it will grow smaller and smaller, until it fades away completely. Awhile back, India was cut off from the Internet briefly. An underwater cable had been damaged. If that happens again, 20 years from now, will they bother to fix it? Or will they have other things to use their resources on?
And I think we can kiss satellite communication good by. My parents remember when Hawaii's television programming was 1-2 weeks behind the mainland, because someone actually had to pack up the film and jump on a plane with it. I doubt they'll be doing that in the post-carbon age. At least, not for long.
I'm probably dating myself, using the term "Venus effect." It was the name of one of the first popular books on global warming, way back in the '70s.
CalTech physicist David Goodstein believes it's possible. His worst-case scenario is not "Mad Max." His worst-case scenario is environmental protection is thrown out the window as people grow more desperate for energy. Huge amounts of increasingly dirty coal are burned, increasing CO2 in the atmosphere to the point that a "runaway greenhouse effect" turns the earth into a planet like Venus, which is a balmy 1000F on the surface (hotter than Mercury, which is closer to the sun than Venus).
We've got materials-sciences and electronics, bio-chemistry and aeronautics, to mention a couple of the 'High technologies' that will not just walk offstage. There are High-altitude balloon and solar+thermal glider designs that are being prototyped as cycling, 'low-orbit com-sats'. I don't think that a forced or voluntary powerdown is going to leave us in 'Frontier House' when it's over. (Which always sounds like it's going to be some hellish, monthlong ordeal, followed by a groggy 'morning after') We'll still have electrical sources, Radios and Computers (I have a Palmtop HP that's just had it's 10th birthday.. Imagine, a computer running for, like, a half a generation.
I've been wondering how we're likely to tackle "mining the landfills" for discarded treasures like old PC's, TV's, and Speak and Spells.. full of High-energy tidbits from the Mass-Producing Heyday.
Mainly I think that, (when those theoretical Civil Wars and dieoffs are behind us,) we will still have books and lightbulbs.. and will continue to develop and implement the sources that are known and just barely applied today, namely Wind, PV, Solar Heat/Cooking (With Continued HydroElectric, Coal and Wood Burning). We know they work, and the energy invested actually gets repaid in full, which I don't believe is true of any of the other sources that get discussed. (Referring only to the Solar,Wind,Hydro)
My greatest fear is that we see the Nukes get used. That's the one that I think would just wrap it up. Can anyone tell me if they think the US Nuclear Arsenal is still providing more of a Deterrent than an Incentive for other countries to join the club?
No, they won't just walk offstage. Instead, they'll fade away.
Could you build your own computer if you had to? Mine the ore, refine the materials, burn your own chips, manufacture your own hard drive, etc.?
I don't think anyone can do that these days. While there will be plenty of spare parts to recycle and repair for a long time, they will not last forever.
I suspect the hardest to maintain will be the infrastructure that educates people to be scientists, engineers, technicians. That's a long time and a lot of resources spent on people who are not being productive. I doubt we will be able to afford it in a low-energy future.
And yes, knowledge is lost, even in literate societies. The Egyptians no longer remember how to build pyramids. The Minoans invented the printing press and flush toilets. When they collapsed, those inventions were not seen again for thousands of years.
Why should technologies allowing more efficient use of other resources and easy victories in wars fade away? I find it more likely that low technology people fade away if high technology people need their resources.
If that were true, technology would never be lost. And yet, it is.
http://theslide.blogspot.com/2006/01/levels-of-collapse-warning-may-be.html
Note that the probable global population after a level 3 collapse is greater than probably sustainable without fossil energy. One has to descend to level 4 collapse before population (approx half current) is sustainable without hi-tech and fossil fuel, significant loss of knowledge and skills are inevitable at that level.
So replacing a ten billion wafer fab, crystal grower, tool plant, cryogenic plant, chem plant, etc, will increase the price of chips if you spend only ten million.
You use an ebeam instead of a lithographic printer with chemicals, you etch on multicrystal silicon (on one crystal, and scribe), etc. You might even find it convenient to etch off the back of a current chip and ebeam that for lithography. It would set your price and performance back twenty years, of course.
The fact that we can accomplish a lot with solar and wind almost guarantees that we will if those are the only means remaining; a long, slow slide just means that people will have more opportunities to find paths of lesser resistance.
Whether we see disorder depends how fast the dip comes on. Even the few years before the plateau saw a huge surge in hybrid vehicles, wind power, investment in coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids, laying of groundwork for new nuclear plants, the lot. As oil becomes pricier we will see much greater efforts in all those directions.
There is a lot more to be gained by building than by taking, and grabby people are likely to lose everything (even if they have names like Bush and Cheney). The people with the most to lose have the greatest interest in maintaining order.
More esoteric brain functions ARE disabled by having to spend all ones waking hours trying to feed oneself and survive.
If you ever want to get a lesson in how life can be 'short and brutish', just try to emulate a US pioneer farmer circa 1880. Try cutting down a large stand of trees with an axe, or try plowing several acres with a mule, or try husking corn manually, and you will see what it is all about.
Let's face it: cheap energy has emancipated the human race from grinding drudgery and a totally brutish existence. As the era of cheap energy might be coming to a close, let's not kid ourselves about the difficulties we may face on a simple day-to-day level.
A naked human all on his own is a pretty pathetic creature. A human with a horse and some livestock can live a somewhat decent life, and a human with cheap energy can, at long last, live like a human should.
Let's face it: if we want to live a step about the brutes, we need energy and lots of it. We can ge by without it, but the nature of our existence will put us back to the 8th century.
Just as industrial societies can (usually) destroy agricultural ones . . . .
One of the sad truth's of history is that violence (or the threat of violence) settles almost everything.
Perhaps your teachers told you that violence settles nothing. If so, they lied.
I agree that it's sad, but it's not a 'Truth'. Just because Violence is ubiquitous and seems to be our Cultural Legacy, doesn't mean it has 'settled' anything. We've spent a century with heavily mechanized warfare, backed up by (and motivated by) cheap energy, and the net result seems to have been mainly an escalation in the numbers of Civilian Casualties over Troop Casualties per conflict. That figure has grown methodically in the 20th cent. WWI didn't settle anything, it set the stage for a global depression, and WWII, which helped create the tools and political foibles that would ensure us of an Arms Race, Korea, Vietnam.. etc thru today.
The thought that it is 'realpolitik' or just human nature is a headgame that gets beaten into us from an early age. But it is not the final truth it pretends to be. It's a hopelessness that says we cannot feed 'the other wolf' inside us, to find intelligent and productive ways to interact as nations and as neighbors. The wars we are having now are like nothing the natural world has ever devised, and that inundation in 4 generations of such brutality is probably the greatest challenge to our battered psyches in trying to pull ourselves away from the morass we seem to be heading into.
Why is English the official language of the U.S. southwest instead of Spanish? Because the U.S. won the Mexican war. Why is Canada an independent country? Because the U.S. attempt to invade and annex Canada during the War of 1812 failed. Examples can be multiplied endlessly.
I do not like to make any statement that seems to glorify or justify violence. However, as I understand history, almost every nation was founded on violence. Most nations have been defended by violence.
Personally, I reject the deterministic thinking which claims that innate tendencies mean that violence will always be the ultimate arbiter in settling disputes. For a specific example to bolster my optimism, I look at Iceland--a thousand years ago one of the most violent societies on earth, now one of the least violent. For centuries there was war among the Scandanavian countries, but now a war between, say, Norway and Denmark is unthinkable. For hundreds of years England fought France; now war between those two nations is unthinkable.
Then why am warned NOT to get inro a bar fight with a fisherman EVERY time I go out in a weekend night in Reykjavik ?
The sea change in Viking society was the conversion to Christianity (a soft conversion, King of Norway threatened to invade if they didn't, pagan worship was still allowed "in private"). Lucky for locals that they discovered America after the 1000 AD conversion.
Besides, it makes things a lot easier all around.
Traditional society valued the wisdom that can only come with age. Perhaps they were onto something.
I grow most of my veg in narrow ( 5' ) beds, it's the best intensively cultivated method.
PaulusP will be doing well to 50% feed a family of 4 with veg from a 100 sq m plot, but that's a damned good start.
http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~gidon/papers/nutri/EI167text.pdf
They list annual uses of
4x10*7 btu per person for food
and
1.7x10*7 btu per person for transport
But I see suprisingly little discussion on the importance of diet.
We can cut this food energy use back to half or lews by veganism, much less than half by local veganism, and much much less than half by eliminating all the excess adipose tissue that we have accumulated. Kunstler makes a big deal about the 3000 mile caesar salad but he does not acknowledge the local grain-fed animal problem, which is still greater. And grass-fed animals are not the solution: we can't afford the land use, the aquifer depletion and contamination, the methane emissions, the topsoil depletion, or the price.
Veganism is wonderful. It is a celebration of life! It is good for the colon! It is good for the heart! I wish more people would embrace it, rather than disparage it.
Of course we have to ditch the cars, too, and also cut back on home energy use (to 1/4 of current use rates or less) and we also need a moratorium on babymaking or at least a one-child-only policy strictly enforced around the world for the next 100 years.
We should rely more on permaculture (nuts, berries) than agriculture.
I would do just fine with 1500 daily kcal from mostly local
pecans and berries (permaculture, seasonal) supplemented by modest quantities of local agricultureal foods:
sweet potatoes
corn
blackeyed peas
avocado
citrus
greens
tomatoes
onions
squash
and a few mcg of b12 supplement every day. These would satisfy all nutritional requirements and provide exceptional protection from NIDDM, CHD, and many types of cancers.
I never made a baby and I don't drive.
I still have internet access. I have a PC, a refrigerator, a washer and dryer, a dishwasher. I use about 230 kwH of electricity every month. I could cut back even more in a pinch.
I would still like to have access to modern dentistry when needed, along with analgesics, narcotics. and some basic surgery for emergencies. I think I could do without MRIs and other high tech diagnostics, not to mention most other prescription drugs.
What to do with Montana ? Erect wind turbines and use their hydro potential. Massive switchgrass plantations ?
Small potato crops ar epossible in parts of Iceland, but it is either sheep or trees for most of the country.
Historic agriculture rotated crops between plants and animals. The manure from the cows/sheep/goats etc. inhanced fertility. Our rice farmers raise a second crop of crawfish along with the rice. One does not preclude the other.
Water is NOT an issue in most of the US and much of the world, certainly not in Louisiana.
In summary, you are perfectly welcome to be a vegan. I have no problem in not being one, and we would be worse off if we were all vegans.
And I use about 340 kWh/month on a 12 month average. And I could cut down a bit if I had to.
That's an ancient solution to poverty and upheaval.
The other way to sustainabilty is "repowering": achieving the same ends more efficiently or with different energy sources. For instance, it would not be difficult to make all the nitrogen fertilizer we need using gasified crop wastes to get the hydrogen. Getting there from here... that's the difficult part.
How?
How? "
If there is an answer, it is a cruel and ruthless one.
I've been toying with becoming a 'sustainability nomad' the last couple of months. The interplay between my thought processes and discussions here and elsewhere have decided me. I know we have between a month and a short handful of years before TS begins to seriously HTF.
Time to get my skates on, arrange spending time at various places (the internet is a wondrous thing) give what I can and learn what I may. It will be interesting and mostly fun, I am sure.
I think the odds are against a nuclear exchange, it would take a real sicko with a perverse agenda to be the first to press the button, I thnk, but I could be wrong.
For now I plan to stick to UK, it has the advantage of fewer AK47s and other weapons, though I should consider a few spells in foreign climes once I have got most of the basics learned. I knew an american in Slough (where I live) who relocated to Atlanta last summer, sometimes longshots work: do Tina and Alcan ring any bells?
Agreed that it would take a sicko, but perhaps I'm more pessimistic about the prospects for restraint in the face of chaos.
Curitiba: you probably saw the same Energy Bulletin story I did, which came from the link above. Here's another:
Here's another that focuses more on the urban amenities than on the city's role as the environmental capitol of Brazil, as I've seen it called.
Adding in the ethanol situation and what I read is about 90% of power generation coming from hydro, plus a cool, moist climate, it sounds more promising than most places in the northern hemisphere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curitiba
http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/Curitiba
Been absent for a few days and there are 500 new posts here, it's gonna take me a week to catch up!
I am concerned about the silently pushed idea that after some seemingless(?) and somehow painless(???) die-off we will wake up in houses where we get all that we need from a garden in our backyard and a solar panel on the roof.
Personally I considered these ideas almost as dangerous as doing nothing. Actually they motivate us for doing exactly nothing to preserve our civilisation, because you see, the die-off is inevitable any resistance is meaningless. But sleep well kids, after that we will be able to build the bright sustainable future.
Sound too damn familiar for me.
The massively lower energy requirements of electrified rail vs. current rubber tires (bicycles excluded of course) PLUS the fact that they run on a VERY flexible & diverse energy source, could effectively solve the transportation side of the problem.
Farm production is another issue, as is industrial use. But solve transportation and there is room to work on the others.
Total non-dependency is impossible without hardship: there will always be resources you cannot produce. But some hardship is inevitable anyway.
Quite a few people live in a largely self-sustaining way, there are sites which provide details of 'intentional communities' and the US has several localisation projects and sustainable community projects.
Nuclear weapons have an extremely rapid effect timescale, what may happen will be several orders of magnitude slower than that. I don't think the probability of serious SOF (sh*t on fan) is more than 25% in the next year, you probably have 2 years, you might have 4. Even when it happens it will probably not be an everything off the cliff thing, it will most likely be a succession of bumps down over several years.
So, relax, TEOTWAYKI (the end of the world as you know it) is unlikly to pounce on you that soon.
However, it's always worth being ensconced and accepted where you live so now would be an appropriate time to think of moving if you intend to. Also, it takes a year to get vegetable production up and running well, two summers to produce seed for many useful plants. Best to have a year or two to settle in and get things going, get to know neighbours well, pick up a few useful skills.
Soon would be a good time to be where you intend to be WTSHTF, but no need to panic just yet.
In modern world everything is so interdependent that nothing could be sustainable even by the limited definition you are giving it. The most sustainable place I can think of in that sense, is my granny's village. People there grow their own food on 100% and most of them live pretty well without extras like personal vehicles, computers, TVs, ACs etc. But even they rely on the city to receive medicines, fertilizers, fuels for the farm machinery, electricity (if not for anything else - for the water pumps) etc.
I suspect they would be much less worse off and can hold for quite a while, but what happens if all people in the cities nearby decide to go back there? Even on a timescale of decades I don't see it happening in an ordered manner.
That's why I tend to think that it will be either or. Either we preserve our current arrangement and adapt it gradually to a low-energy world, or we quickly descend into a complete chaos. For the latter to happen we must be foolish enough to pick the last man standing "solution" to our energy problems. I'm not ruling this one out but I'd rather work for more positive scenarios.
Buy vitamins, dried goods, canned goods, etc, and live in a hole for two years.
Avoiding the dieoff.
Move the Australia or New Zealand and don't live in a city.
I'm not worried about an unavoidable dieoff, I'm worried about a screwup dieoff where we fight a nuclear war and disrupt technological systems and everyone competes to loot the infrastructure instead of cooperating to get everything working again.
Historical note: Australians treated their aborigines with as evil a genocidal cruelty as any in history; note particularly how the Tasmanian natives were killed off. By way of contrast, the Maoris of New Zealand fought the British to a standstill--then signed a treaty with Queen Victoria. Then, something seen nowhere else in the world, to the best of my knowledge, the white people did not violate the treaty.
For an amusing and informal comparison of NZ and Australia, see the marvelous book on bicycling around the world, "Miles from Nowhere."
OPEC Output Down 120,000 bpd in January
Jan 06 Dec 05 Nov 05 Oct 05 Sept 05 QuotaOPEC 10
(excl. Iraq) 28.150 28.250 28.350 28.270 28.320 28.000
Algeria - 53% over quota
Kuwait - 13% over quota
Libya - 11% over quota
Qatar - 10% over quota
Saudi Arabia - 4% over quota
Nigeria - 4% over quota
U.A.E. - 1% over quota
Iran - 5% under quota
Venezuela - 19% under quota
Indonesia - 37% under quota
I wonder if this tells us anything. On the negative side, much has been made of Indonesia's depletion problems, its internal riots over energy prices IIRC, and the fact that it's now a net oil importer, so that explains their poor performance. Iran and Venezuela are both stepping up the anti-U.S. rhetoric and are talking about producing even less oil than they're already underproducing. Perhaps their underperformance is a political statement.
On the plus side, I can't figure out why Algeria is so high. The rest fall in a band of 1% to 13% over quota, which is standard practice, no?
These quotas are the ones based on stated (i.e., unaudited, highly dubious) proven reserves that went into effect in the 1980s, right?
They are considering dropping out, because the dues are pretty steep. They are reaching the point where they cannot afford them.
The headline for Conoco was ConocoPhillips replaces 230 pct of reserves in 2005.
Reading further down in the story it said "Excluding sales and acquisitions, the company reported a reserve replacement ratio of 100 percent"
It's not looking too good if the weather turns chilly, this outage has significantly curtailed our peak flow rate and whilst the short and medium storage can maintain a decent rate for a little while they just don't have the volume to keep the gas flowing for long.
The situation we find ourselves in atm sees us heavily dependent on the continental Interconnector and hoping for Spring!
They touched on a number of topics - the central theme had to do with the western notion of progress, and the tendency towards violence, conquest, material acquisition, and general thoughts related to the definition of contentment.
There was one question in there that really perked up my ears though:
Emphasis mine.
The program was a few weeks ago, but you can download and listen to a podcast here:
http://speakingoffaith.publicradio.org/programs/buddhaintheworld/index.shtml
So in one article they are announcing 2, even 3 breakthroughs each one worth billions, even trillions of dollars. And noone is talking 24/7 on the news about that, noone is investing billions or receiving Nobel prizes... It is simply strange.
I could be wrong of course.
While I'm feeling so positive let me just mention the energy situation in Europe in broad terms compared to the U.S. In general we Europeans use about half the energy the U.S. does. Many experts who've studied our energy consumption in detail are convinced we can reduce our energy use by 50%, and retain our standard of living, just by fully utilising existing technology and cutting out waste and conserving resources. These are, of course, ballpark figures, but ones that are generally accepted. So, doesn't that mean the U.S. could make enormous, gigantic, savings in energy consumption without having to return to pre-industrial levels? Just trying to inject a bit of optimism here guys! We're not doomed, doomed, doomed. We "just" have to take control and re-organise the way we live. Shouldn't be that hard.
None of this is in a vacuum - we have resource depletion and scarcity facing us, a looming currency crisis, China holding our pink slip for debts owed - the laundry list of bad things is simply too lengthy to actually list in a single place!! But taken as a whole, we are facing too many things with an out-of-control government filled with professional crooks.
In the scheme of things, either a charismatic leader replete with honesty has to appear and become president, or else the current regime has to fall apart before change can occur at a more local level. And it's "when things fall apart" that worries me.
All one can do is simplify and be as ready as possible for whatever the future brings.
Lawmakers want to identify options, including light-rail line
BY BRIAN BONNER
Pioneer Press
Rick Hansen, a state representative from South St. Paul, is among several area legislators who want the state to borrow $2 million for a study to find the best way to provide mass transit for northern Dakota County residents.
At town hall meetings with constituents, "transit comes up at every one," Hansen said Tuesday. "People are hoping we start to lead again."
One idea is the Robert Street Transit Corridor, involving possible construction of a light-rail line south from downtown St. Paul. A route under discussion is a 14-mile line that would go along South Robert Street in West St. Paul, then south through Inver Grove Heights and Rosemount along U.S. 52.
Eventually, the connection could even go to Rochester, said Hansen, a DFLer.
But Hansen said area legislators, including Sen. Jim Metzen, DFL-South St. Paul, want transit experts to recommend the best routing and best mode of transportation. A dedicated bus line might work better than light-rail trains, Hansen said.
State legislators are considering a number of ways to build on the success of the Hiawatha light-rail line, which has exceeded ridership expectations since it opened between downtown Minneapolis and the airport and Mall of America two years ago.
One of those options includes construction of a Central Corridor light-rail line that links Minneapolis and St. Paul along University Avenue. If the Central Corridor ends in downtown St. Paul near the old Union Depot, Hansen said, fast-growing Dakota County might be well served from a southbound connection.
"We like our cars, but the $3 gas and high-energy costs impact the reality of how we move around," Hansen said. "The sea change in attitudes occurred when Hiawatha was completed and people started riding it."
Because of geographic proximity, Hansen said, his constituents in Mendota Heights in particular have told him that they use the Hiawatha line to go to downtown Minneapolis and to ballgames.
And President Bush has even lately given more impetus to the issue with his talk about breaking the nation's addiction to imported oil.
"I was surprised and pleasantly surprised," Hansen said of the president's recent focus. "I don't think it is just talk. We have to look at new alternatives."
Any new mass transit system in northern Dakota County is still years away, Hansen cautioned. The study would be conducted by the Metropolitan Council and transit planners from Dakota and Ramsey counties.
But like everything else at the Legislature, which convenes again in March, the competition for taxpayer dollars will be fierce. Support for the study is not assured, Hansen said.
Hansen said he couldn't guess how much a northern Dakota County transit system would eventually cost. It will require federal assistance, he said.
"It depends on where you put it and what the method is going to be," Hansen said. "Two million is the beginning price."
West St. Paul Mayor John Zanmiller said he supports more spending on mass transit, even if the route chosen bypasses his suburb.
As a nation, Zanmiller said, "it doesn't make sense for us to be captive to someone who can, on a whim, turn off the spigot and suddenly we're facing $5-a-gallon (gasoline) prices.
"Anyone who's driven on (Minnesota) Highway 3 to Rosemount on a Friday afternoon knows there's quite a bottleneck going there, not to mention what's going on in my city," he said, referring to substantial congestion on the 2.5-mile South Robert Street retail strip.
"How can we attract more people as residents and as shoppers without making Robert Street eight lanes wide? You simply can't do it," Zanmiller said. "Smart transportation will allow us to accomplish that goal."
Brian Bonner can be reached at bbonner@pioneerpress.com or 651-228-2173.
Otherwise I agree - the problem is 99% social/political and probably just 1% technical.
It is a dynamic process, you sort the scenarious according to the given facts, then the new facts make you reiterate and re-assess them and so on, until the picture becomes clearer.
Wish I could write an algorithm for that.
http://www.russiaprofile.org/politics/2006/2/6/3211.wbp
Interview with Russian Minister of Industry and Energy Viktor Khristenko
("The Need for Energy Dialogue")
Thomas Rymer, Russia Profile
Summary:
Question: One issue of concern is investment in new production in the oil industry. What effect are the high tax rates on excess profits having on companies' investment in new production? What role does your ministry play in promoting investment projects in the oil sector?
Viktor Khristenko: The differentiated rates of the mineral resources tax have been discussed for quite some time now. The Industry and Energy Ministry is actively involved in this process. The objective is to create a transparent differentiation mechanism for the tax that would rule out varying applications, without leading to large losses for the budget and at the same time encouraging the development of new deposits.
Our position is that we should resolve this issue by introducing a tax holiday period of 5-7 years for new deposits, where industrial production has not yet begun.
Above all, zero-tax rate would give companies an incentive to begin high-risk development in eastern Siberia, the Far East and offshore. The Industry and Energy Ministry also proposes introducing tax breaks for exhausted deposits. Various threshold levels of depletion are currently being examined.
One important point is that the longer we delay making this decision, the harder it will be to feel the effectiveness of the measure taken: the structure of the country's reserves will continue to get worse and Russia could end up facing a real collapse in oil production. At the same time, we need to remember that it will be quite some time before any mechanism aimed at encouraging the growth of reserves will have a visible effect. This is another argument in favor of taking action as quickly as possible. I think that we will reach concrete results this year.
(6 February 2006)
Is asteroid and comet mining for our necessary resources a feasability?
I might take a punt on buying in advance of the stocks data release, price is currently $60.67 (overnight live market), I'm sure it will rise higher than that in the next 3 weeks.
There seems to be a tendency for the price to show gains in asian trading and reductions in US trading lately. There's another cold spell due to happen in US imminently, I would expect the price to increase in US trading Friday, possibly Monday too, then probably decline Tuesday in advance of next week's stocks data release. If I can get a price below $60.50 early in US trading Friday I will probably buy and plan to sell Tuesday.
The higher volatility within a fairly tight range I'd read as a nervous market not knowing which way it wants to go. It could break downwards but they risks are greater that it would break upwards. Any negative geopolitical news that could impact supply is likely to cause a $2+ increase. Weekends have a tendency to provide negative supply news. It doesn't feel like speculators are too significant in moving the market atm.
US oil production in large part because US oil production
data was fairly accurate, and that no geopolitical events
happened that would bring 'noises' to the model.
I was wondering if his model has been applied to some other
countries that have a fairly 'event free' history.
Let's say Columbia, or Ecuador.
I was reading the ASPO - newsletter#19", the Colombia
country assement. It says that production peaked in 1999 at
816kb/d, to decline to 625kb/d in 2001, a huge decrease.
4 years later it would be interesting to see the evolution
of their production.
You might have a look at Argentina. I don't know much, but they did have some significant production (rel 2 their needs) at one time, but now they seem to be relying on other countries for their supplies. I think the Malvinas/Falkland Island war back in the 80's was an attempt by the Argies to stake a hard claim on larger OCS oil prospecting areas that, to my knowledge, have never panned out, but I admit I don't stay current on that area.
The link :-
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table22.xls
http://www.nordpool.com/
Ownership
The Nord Pool Group comprises the parent company, Nord Pool ASA, and the wholly owned subsidiary Nord Pool Clearing ASA. Nord Pool Clearing (formerly NECH) was established as a separate Nord Pool business area on January 1, 1999. March 5, 2002 was a banner day in Nord Pool's history: Norway's Finance Ministry licensed Nord Pool AS an exchange and clearinghouse for commodity derivatives. As of January 6, 2003 Nordic Electricity Clearing House ASA (NECH) was renamed Nord Pool Clearing ASA.
The Nord Pool Group is headquartered in Oslo, Norway with offices in Sweden, Finland and Denmark. Nord Pool ASA owns 20 percent of Nord Pool Spot AS. As of 1 January 2004, Nord Pool ASA acquired full ownership of Nord Pool Consulting from Statnett and Svenska Kraftnät. Nord Pool Spot AS and Nord Pool Consulting AS are treated as associated companies in the 2003 accounts for the Nord Pool Group.
The ownership of Nord Pool Spot is shared by the Nordic transmission system operators (TSOs) and Nord Pool ASA. Nord Pool ASA, Statnett SF, Affärsverket svenska kraftnät and Fingrid Oyj each own 20 percent of Nord Pool Spot AS and Eltra amba and Elkraft System amba each own 10 percent of the shares. Nord Pool Spot AS owns 100 % of Nord Pool Finland Oy.Nord Pool is headquartered in Oslo, Norway with offices in Denmark, Finland and Sweden.
There are hydroelectric owning stock companies in the US, Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland. I am looking for others (Austria, Brazil, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Czech, Chile, Argentina, Australia, India, etc.)
Geographic diversity in energy investments :-)
Swedish is just corrupted Icelandic (according yo my friends :-P Perhaps, although my opportunities are better in Iceland (although they still depend upon oil for transportation).
Are there any companies that operate private hydro plants ? With stock that one can buy ?
Is there a market for redeveloping these abandoned hydro plants with the carbon taxes, exports to Germany and Denmark, rising coal prices, etc. ?
I suspect that a company could be started if one does not exist.
Nearly all profitable power plants are either owned by the giant corporations, Vattenfall, Eon, Fortum or municipial power companies. There are probably some that still are owned by paper mills etc. There are as far as I know no medium size fairly high profile hydro powerplant company with shares for sale, they have all been bough by the giants and they were smart enough to do that while they were cheap.
I'd still like to know why Brent is not traded in £ or €. Does anybody have the answer?
I suspect that Iraq will now erupt into open Sunni/Shiite sectarian warfare. Will this spread to surrounding nations (i.e. SA)? Will they get involved in supporting one side or the other? How long will the US continue to pretend to support the pro-Iranian Shiite government (that we never wanted there anyway) as they commit atrocities against the Sunnis, and how will our Sunni run Arab allies feel about that? It may not require an attack on Iran for the ME to explode (although I still think that will happen too).
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?