DrumBeat: December 24, 2006

Exxon among winners of Libya oil blocs: Exxon, ONGC and Inpex win blocs that drew only single bidders. Russian firms take bulk of licenses.

TRIPOLI -- Three blocs that drew only single bidders in Libya's latest oil exploration round were awarded to Exxon, ONGC and Inpex on Sunday, the country's state National Oil Corporation said.

Exxon Mobil Corp. was awarded a 22.3 percent share in four wells, India's Oil & Natural Gas Corp. a 28 percent share in one well and Japan's Inpex Holdings Inc. 12.9 percent of three wells, NOC said.

Russia's Gazprom and Tatneft won the bulk of licences in the round last week.

From those loony liberals at the Washington Times: Energy options set aside for now

Conservation? In principle, sure. We could live in far smaller, well-insulated houses, use fans instead of air conditioning, drive the sorts of glorified go-carts that one sees in Thailand, and spend our time reading and listening to music. In practice, people don't behave this way.

Further, the entire economy is based on high production and high consumption. We can philosophize about it, but nothing short of catastrophe will change it.

The nature of a free-enterprise economy is that it adapts well to gradual changes, but cannot prepare for sudden ones. Any technical solution that would work seems to require wrenching social changes that aren't going to be embraced voluntarily.

America’s worst commutes: Despite carpooling, leaving earlier, time in the car just keeps getting longer

In 2003 the U.S. Census felt it necessary to coin the term “extreme commuting” to describe trips of over 90 minutes. Today, more than 10 million workers travel more than 60 minutes each way, and around 3.3 million travel 90 minutes or more.

The lights went out one Christmas long ago

The energy crisis was peaking in late 1973. Earlier that year there were electricity brownouts across the country and prices for fuel were rapidly rising. In October, the Arab oil embargo pinched an already dwindling supply of fuel.

Energy Consumption: The Globalist Quiz

Despite concern about climate change, the demand for energy has continued to grow. In fact, energy consumption across the globe increased by 72 percent from 1975 to 2003. Which of these regions increased its use of energy by the lowest percentage?

Democrats' energy goals likely to be modest in 2007

WASHINGTON — Democrats campaigned on promises of making sweeping changes to the nation's energy policy, but it's unlikely they'll deliver on most of those promises.

Citing cost pressures, several carriers hike fares

American spokesman Tim Wagner said the fare increase was necessary to offset higher fuel costs. He said jet fuel prices are about 15 percent higher than this time last year and spot fuel is about 40 percent higher than this time in 2004.

Musharraf: Pakistan will go ahead with Iran gas pipeline project

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will go ahead with a project to build a pipeline to carry Iranian gas even if India decides not to join it, President Pervez Musharraf has said.

Fuel Prices Will Not Increase, Says Al-Naimi

JEDDAH — Saudi Arabia yesterday dropped plans to increase fuel prices and said as of Jan. 1 it would sell Premium 95 gasoline for 60 halalas and Premium 91 for 45 halalas per liter, instead of the previously announced prices of 75 and 60 halalas, respectively. The announcement pleased both Saudis and expatriates as they were expecting a hike in prices from the beginning of the year.

Global Energy Woes Spark Russian Resurgence

As oil prices climbed in 2006 and burgeoning global powers China and India emerged as major energy consumers, one country above all others appeared poised to profit -- Russia.

Iran refuses to cease uranium enrichment, mulls withdrawal from IAEA

Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran pledged to change its relationship with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Association.

"We are not obliged and it is not expected that cooperation with the IAEA continues at the same former level," Hosseini told reporters. He did not provide details about what would change.

Azerbaijan May Stop Buying Russian Gas and Cut Oil Exports

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev said his country may stop importing Russian natural gas next year because OAO Gazprom, Russia's gas-export monopoly, wants to more than double prices.

Agency report rings alarm bells for global energy security

Alarm bells are ringing on the issue of security of global energy supplies, International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Economist Dr. Fatih Birol said Friday at a press conference in Istanbul.

"The threat to the world's energy security, especially on oil and natural gas, will reach serious dimensions in the next 10 years," he added.

Nigerian militants hit close to home

PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria - A car bomb exploded outside a state government building in Nigeria's southern oil hub Saturday, marking the first targeting of government installations by a militant group that has previously focused attacks on foreign oil companies.

The blast was the latest in a spree of assaults aimed at disrupting oil operations in the Niger River delta. Car bombs hit two foreign compounds Monday, gunmen killed three guards at two other facilities Thursday and a water pipeline to a refinery was reported sabotaged late Friday.

Pakistan: Locally-made LPG price may be brought to international level

LAHORE: The government has approved a proposal to increase the price of locally produced LPG to the international market level, according to the Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA).

U.K.: Russian bullying over oil is 'a wake-up call'

Russia's use of energy supplies as a political weapon should be a wake-up call to Britain and the West to deal urgently with the threat, senior Conservatives said last night.

NY Times pimps the privatization of Iraq's oil

Foreign investment is a key ingredient in all kinds of development projects in all kinds of countries. It's also the rationale for the push to open Iraq's oil sector to foreign investment. So the reporter, Edward Wong, believes it must be necessary in this case even though none of the world's top four oil producers -- with 51% of the planet's reserves between them -- have any deals that give foreign companies an equity stake in their production, which is what's being pushed in Iraq (they do make use of the private sector on a straight, for-hire basis).

The Last Word with Matt Cooper: Cooper picks stocks for 2007

Tullow Oil. I believe the peak oil phenomenon will dominate economics over the next couple of decades and that the search for alternative sources of energy will dominate policy and prices.

But remaining oil reserves will be increasingly important and, as one of the few remaining reasonably-sizeable independent oil producers and explorers available, I suspect Tullow will be purchased by a bigger player eventually. If it happens this year then it'll help the performance of this portfolio for the competition.

Copper mining companies invest in "reliable" energy

Four of the largest mining companies operating in Chile have joined forces in pursuit of reliable and affordable gas supplies.

EPA OKs fuel-cell car production

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has cleared the way for automakers to produce hydrogen-powered fuel-cell cars to meet zero-emission vehicle requirements in California and 10 other states.

Renewable Energy in America, Part 2: Solar Powered Homes

"Residential solar power is cost-effective. Go to the California Energy Commission's Web site and read their two-page flyer. It shows that a homeowner that puts solar on their house and finances it properly with their mortgage can save money," said Travis Bradford, founder and director of the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development.

British Army saves by filling tanks with cooking oil

Out of the frying pan into the firefight. British troops in Iraq, Afghanistan and other military bases around the world are to be told to recycle used cooking oil as fuel for military vehicles.

Kenya: Energy from garbage

College harnesses cow pat power

An agricultural college is using methane from the muck produced by its dairy herd to power its working farm.

Are hydrogen-fueled cars pie-in-the-sky?

How about a city where there are lots of trains, subways, and busses, that are actually clean and safe, that actually run on time and do not break down, that actually have routes that go where commuters want to travel, that are not so crowded you have to hang from a ceiling strap with a death-grip for an hour, that are not covered with spray-painted gang symbols, so most commuters will actually look forward to leaving their cars at home. No, I guess that’s far more difficult to accomplish than making our entire oil-based industries including oil refineries, engine manufacturers, oil tankers, gas stations, oil pipelines, and all gasoline-powered vehicles obsolete.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of the wonderful, knowledgeable and hardworking people who take the time to share their expertise here on TOD to help social (pseudo?) scientists such as I  better understand this complex and multifaceted issue.

Best wishes to all of you for the Holiday.

Me too!
Thanks for this site/work from another pesudo scientist who needs the analysis & community for our energy descent. Thanks again.
Thanks to all Oil Drum personnel for running the best peak oil blog on the planet. Thanks especially to Leanan for her tireless daily work in the trenches of the information byways, separating the gold from the dross for the edification of us all. Best wishes for 2007!
Yes, me too. And may the reality-based community continue expanding in the coming year.

Allow me too to "Me too!".

Ditto as well and best wishes for 2007 from a (pseudo?) scientist mostly on the biological side of the fence.

By the way, what do the TOD folk recommend for those last minute shoppers among us (sort of following in the footsteps of the rest of society in not doing anything about an oncoming problem until the last minute)?

If you could give one gift to maximize the resilience/survivability of the recipient, what would it be?

John Seymour's "The Self Sufficient Life and How to Live It:  The Complete Back-To-Basics Guide."

Its inspiring and wide ranging and just a fun read as well.

I second the John Seymour book.  Also, his "Forgotten Arts and Crafts."

Another good one is "When Technology Fails" by Stein.

Interesting suggestions. Surfing on these brings up interesting websites:

John Seymour's Self Sufficiency Network He passed away at the age of 90 in 2004 and just prior to passing completed a new version of the book (wiki), having authored some 40 books in all.

Matthew Stein, author of "When Technology Fails: A Manual for Self-Reliance and Planetary Survival" and an MIT-trained professional engineer also has a website by the same name.


As I see it, the four main threats to a stable American and world future are:

The oil crisis of the 1970's was a result of a 5% drop in global oil
production due to the OPEC oil embargo. We are facing an eminent,
unavoidable drop in global oil production as most of the world's oil fields
are now in decline. Many oil industry experts state that global oil production
has essentially already reached a plateau and predict that it will start to
decline sometime between this year and the year 2010.

· ECO THREAT . . .

· BIO THREAT . . .


The last paragraphs on this page are a brief synopsis of peak oil and a suggestion to learn more about it. [Update - FWIW Reading further through the site, I've found that some of the author's ideas are too alternative or "new age" for my taste.]

Matt Stein's page is an interesting one.

He forgot the biggest threat of all:

Mental Manipulation of the Mob using the latest in neuro-scientific findings.

We are not who, or what we think we are.

Karl Rove knows it.
Kerry shows it.
His superior intellect gets Swift Boated every time and still he does not "get it". How intellectually dense can one be?

I gave my father-in-law a dynamo radio/flashlight (runs on batteries or winding action).
Same here. Hope everyone has a safe, warm, happy holiday.

Energy options set aside for now

The entire economy is based on high production and high consumption. We can philosophize about it, but nothing short of catastrophe will change it.

Couldn't have said it better myself, and I doubt that anyone could.

Take that into the new year, write it down and stick it on the fridge.

It suggests a question though: high consumption, you betcha, but whatever happened to the high production? And if we can agree that high production is gone from EU, US, Canada, it logically follows we would have to agree the entire economy is going going gone.

Merry Christmas, y'all.

Wonder what it'll look like next year.

Yeh, bring out the bombs.  As the NYT says, we need to expand our army for future wars.  And what might this wars be for?  
Yeah, I read that one too...gave me a "holiday chill."
It reminds me of a talk by a UC Berkeley economist at a climate change conference in CA.  His basic message was, "Look folks, we are mass consumers.  Let's be grown up and accept that.  Now, because of this, we are going to use a lot of energy going forwards.  Hence, we will have massive emissions of greenhouse gases.  Now let me show you a general equilibrium model for the CA economy based on another century of growth in consumption and population."

What followed was a catalogue of horrors, but I was supposed to just agree that this was simply the way it is.  There is no alternative.  The climatologists, hydrologists and biologists that followed had a sort of deer caught in the headlights look about them when the implications of this growth were illuminated through there work.  

I may have been the only one in the audience who called this for what it is:  madness.  

This conference with the following economist, per chance?

George Akerlof, UC Berkeley professor of economics and 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics

Economic theory gives a simple natural way to fight global warming, which is to have escalating taxes on carbon emissions ... Carbon emissions into the atmosphere constitute a nuisance to everybody on the planet. People should be taxed to pay a penalty equal to the value of the nuisance that they cause. In this way people who value their emissions more than the nuisance they cause will make those emissions. They will pay the tax. People whose emissions are not valued as much as the nuisance they cause will curb them. They will not pay the tax ... The economics here is as simple and straightforward as economics ever gets. It would be hard to find any economist who would disagree.

The morality of it is [also] fairly easy ... It is like a case of stealing. By adding more carbon to the atmosphere than our fair share, we are taking more than what rightfully belongs to us. We should not feel entitled to that any more than we would feel entitled to enter uninvited into our neighbors' house and partake of the dinner sitting on the table for their family.

In: Sounding the alarm

California Magazine September/October 2006, VOLUME 118, NO. 5 Can We Adapt? The Science and Psychology of Climate Change (special issue)

This is quite a change of opinion coming from the author and newspaper which have been strong 'neocon' supporters of the Iraq conflict.  At the minimum, it's a concession that the fiat-money (US$) based US and global economy can not sustain itself, well, on just more fiat money.  Real and cheap energy is needed, if only to maintain a vast worldwide military network and ongoing wars (not stated, but implied).  As the article actually states, capitalism will fail to smoothly adjust to the arrival of PO.  

Assuming the necons, and by association the GWB administration, now really believes in PO, what is their plan?  

Hello HeIsSoFly,

I believe things can change almost overnight, that is why a am a fast-crash doomer.  But I keep racking my brains for solutions and pushing for maximum Peakoil Outreach.

Imagine if the President got with the program, then issued a decree that only families that doubled, or tripled up into one house would get a huge rebate on solar installations; to essentially incentivize us back to a tribal inclusive fitness level lifestyle.  Virtually overnight half the housing in the country would be empty and the energy savings would be tremendous.

Why wait until energy prices force this doubling or tripling up anyway?  Why wait until the millions of bankrupt mortgagees have to abandon their homes and move back in with Mom & Dad?  Why wait until the stock market crashes taking our savings, pensions, Social Security, and 401Ks with it?  Why wait for catastrophe?

Why not start moving 60-75% of the US labor force to my hoped for 150 million wheelbarrows.  Why purposely choose 150 million rifles, and all the mayhem that will result, when we clearly know that 150 million wheelbarrows is what we will truly need after this mayhem?

I think that WaPo article was misguided because they did not encourage solution-thinking.  If that author was Captain of the Titanic: he would not even try to launch the lifeboats or send out a radio-mayday.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

correction-Washington Times article
Leanan, thanks for getting up early on Christmas Eve, a time when any decent normal person should be nursing a hangover and a sour stomach from too much party food!

Yesterday, Saturday Dec. 22, I drove past the highest priced shopping center in the Houston area, the Galleria. The traffic there is always heavy, and nearly unbearable at Christmas be. This was around noon. There was light traffic! My conclusion is that the United States has already entered a severe recession/depression, no matter whats being reported by the media. Any other reports from various regions?

Reporting from the suburbs or Wilmington, Delaware....

For what it's worth, on Friday my wife went to a Macy's department store in a nearby mall to get a last-minute Christmas gift. She expected to encounter difficulty in finding a parking spot and large crowds in the stores, but the whole mall looked to be only a little bit more crowded than it would on a normal weekend.

Maybe it means something or maybe it doesn't, but it was somewhat unusual nonetheless.

Same here in KC...I went to our local shopping district and, although busy, was not "jammed" like I remember years past.

Another anecdotal Christmas present story, my kids and I have made a bunch of gifts this year.  I also ended to giving more to charities this year than years past.

Thanks, TOD, for all you have given us this year and hope everyone finds time to Eat, Drink, and be Merry!!

Best thing you can do is reconnect with old friends and family members and forget about the rest of the world for awhile.

In Chattanooga, the biggest mall was in traffic gridlock both Thursday and Friday, but relatively light traffic on Saturday??? It's as though everyone finished their shopping a day early...
Totally different situation here in Austin - the economy has never been better.
Oilmanbob -

I would agree with you - I drove past the typical big box store area / mall yesterday in Central NY during early evening.  Coming upon the exit off the highway I was expecting the ramp to be completely backed up with cars trying to get to the mall but there were only a few scattered cars waiting at the traffic light and just a lack of typical craziness...  I definitely had the sense that something weird was going on...


Yesterday I went to Target to get a few items for the house as we have just moved to Springfield, MO.  I overheard the employee at Target saying that when she got to work at 10AM she expected the parking lot to be full and was very surprised that it wasn't.


Please tell me you're kidding, and that you're not reaching that conclusion based on a single drive-by of a single shopping center in one US city.

And how in the world could the US have "already entered a severe recession/depression" without everyone, including the media, knowing?

Personally, I think that the nation-wide trends of buying gift cards and shopping online are starting to reduce the ratio of shopping center congestion to number of dollars spent.  People are either shopping online and not going to stores, or spending less time in stores because cards are such quick purchases.

Actually, my impressions were based on drive-bys of three shopping centers, but I chose to use one to illustrate. The Galleria is located within 5 miles of the highest priced residential real estate in the Metropolitan area, and is the deastination of choice for many upperclass foreigners. The economics reporters have been saying that high end retail is less affected, but I'm not seeing that as true in the world energy capital.
  Our economic reporting seems to be as managed as our reporting on the war in Iraq, and, frankly I trust my own impressions more than I trust MSNBC, or the Economist magazine, or the major networks. Its sad, but true, that there is much better reporting available on the Internet than can be found in the media. They have large retailers as advertisers and would rather report terrible news in the first quarter so as not to further depress sales.
  So thats why I kicked the question out to TOD group. I trust their observations and analysis a lot more than the economic pundits. I'm truly curious how sales have gone on Rodeo Drive and lower Manhattan. We'll know for sure that times are hard when we know how the truly wealthy are spending their money.
FWIW - 3 small towns in the UK

Kettering, Market Harborough, Tenbury Wells

have all looked subdued this year at the usual 'crazy' time. Bargains are nowhere to be seen in shops. I think margins are now cut to their limit.

Waiting for the slow everlasting inflation...

Merry Crimbo all

Actually a finacial manager Jim Puplava of Financial Sense Online actually uses what he calls his "parking lot indicator" to either validate or in-validate other financial stats that he analyizes.

During the middle of summer when everyone was doom and gloom on the finacial markets, he was predicting a record on the Dow.  One of his facts that he used to come up with this prediction was that traffic at his local mall plus his personal conversations with retailers at the mall did not show any slow down.  Salesman at retailers like Brooks Brothers and Nordstrom's told him that sales were great.  In fact, when so many internet writers were saying it was the end of the economy, the only way to park at the mall was to get a valet.

So while I would draw a conclusion bases soley on personal experience at the mall, it can be used in addition with other statistics to draw a logical conclusion.  

Didn't the great Peter Lynch use the "parking lot indicator" when considering investing in retail companies?

I consider it a realiable indicator.


I appreciate the question you've raised.  It seems like a good one.

For me, it is turned around.  All of the BS coming from the "Official" government and corporate spinmeisters is just that -- crap.

They do use it to keep a certain class of people believing in and investing in the status quo, but it seems to me that it is all about making sure that folks believe that their 401k or whatever really has meaning when it clearly does not.

If one works in the finance industry, on Wall street, or in some investment house, then one must (I suppose) believe the numbers churned out to support ever more consumption and all that this implies.

I just don't think that the official systems have any credibility with me anymore.

So the parking lot indicator is at least something local that I -- and others -- can look at and ponder.  but I'll admit, in isolation it is a bit like reading tea leaves or entrails.  Most of us interpret "indicators" in light of our own sense of the way things are.  Is it all subjective?

Retailers count on post-Christmas sales

But the late-buying binge was not enough to meet sales goals, and retailers are now turning to post-Christmas business to make this season a merry one, according to one report from a national research company.

"These were big days, but they came up short in terms of traffic and sales," said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a research firm, referring to this past Friday and Saturday. ShopperTrak monitors total retail sales at more than 45,000 outlets.


These are my thoughts for Christmas and the upcoming New Year as they relate to the likely upcoming energy crisis and ensuing chaos in our society. Global warming adds its part as well since according to the news another island has become submerged  due to rising sea levels.

My thoughts are that since its going to happen and I can't change anything about that then why do I not enjoy the few years I have left?

My son is buying a new house in North Carolina where I used to live and him and my wife have been asking me for some time to come live with them. That means selling the farm and acreage with it. That means moving back to the state I loved most next to Kentucky. That means life would be easier for me. No hunkering down activities. Forget about all the preparations which do take their toll. A very heavy mental toll as well. I can hardly get a good nights sleep anymore and have been losing weight as well.

It means putting my HD Lowrider on a trailer behind the Jeep Wrangler, putting the dogs(lots of Jack Russells) in the back of the jeep, hauling ass over the mountains and not looking back. Going back to laying on the beach,eating good seafood, sourwood honey,collard greens and pine trees. Lounging on the screened in porch and NC style BBQ.

I am very seriously considering it for I am 68 and have a very few good arrows left in my quiver and want to use them wisely plus I miss being with my wife and if it all goes to hell then I will be there with my son and wife as it goes down.

What I wondered was that if many had the same ephipany as myself, would they NOT prepare but instead do a "On the Beach" scenario and just enjoy what was left of life as we knew it?

Growing up on the farm , progressing thru the 60s and 70s and loving every minute of it. The good music(R&R,R&B,Folk,Bluegrass....) the good times of camping and hunting,partying beyond belief, and raising horses,dogs and kids....it was very good. I rode the inflation wagon all the way and made money on the many houses we moved to as we moved along the road to the future.

Now it appears everything will be very bad. I don't think I can fight it alone. I am likely going to be giving up on that paradigm.

If so my contributions here will be zilch and I won't be reading the posts much longer. I will winter over, prepare my place for the auctioneer in the spring and when the weather is nice I will be gone before planting time.

In fact this may be my last post.
My swan song.
Hope the rest of you have what it takes.In about 30 minutes from now I tell my family that I am giving up on this part of my life and moving back to North Carolina and that williamsburg house in Wake County near Jordan lake,where I used to windsurf.


P.S. I know its a cop out. For me I guess its coming too late in my life but I had a fine run at it(my life). I remember every glorious bit of it. I still play the old music tapes and as I cycle down the roads I can relive those old times again as the nostalgia of it returns. I am a childe of the past. Good luck all you Hothgorians.

Happy trails!  I'm only halfway along that path, with kids to raise and a family to take care of, so that choice is closed to me - but in your shoes I might do the same.    
 Airdale be close to family that count. You won't go down easily I can can tell from your posts- your survival instinct will kick in- for your family! Please don't stop posting;selfish on my part!      Good luck!
I don't know that I would ever "not prepare," but I do think family will be worth more a lot more than farmland if TSHTF.
I agree with Leanan.  Be with your family.
That is the most important thing anyway.  
No amount of preperation is worth anything if
you don't have those you care about nearby.
Try and check in once in a while.

First of all this is your life and your choice and options, and whatever you decide I hope will work out fine for you.

Still, between your words and lines I sense a Christmas sadness, something that is all too common. The time to be jolly, the time to be with family, can be hard, and is on many who don't have them close-by.

That, however, also means that it is not necessarily the best time to make drastic decisions. That's a general observation, not a personal; one towards you.

After reading your words, thank you for them, open and honest works for me, I was thinking a few things, don;t know why really.

First, you're 68, and that may feel old, but you may have quite a few good years left in you. You plan to move towards a life that may seem wonderful now, but you do have to ask if it would fulfill you for the next 15-20 years. Yes that is a real possibility.

Alternatively, depending on the fire of life and the energy you feel left in you, you can look at what you have, the farm, and see if you can make that something that more people could be fulfilled with, along with yourself, when times get bad. Farmland will save lives. It's worth more than pieces of gold.

And it's not just the land, for that you could just sell, to whoever, it's your knowledge of life and of farming and of the region etc., that makes you valuable in that setting, the value of lassing things on to the next generation (almost a forgotten art, isn't it?. But yes, you have to feel up to that sort of thing.

We face, through the energy crisis, as well as the financial crisis, both of which may strike soon, a rapidly shifting world (and country). There are millions of people, certainly the younger ones, who would love to learn how to farm, how to live closer to the earth. Granted, for many it will be sheer necessity, But let's leave some positive hope for the human spirit too. I think maybe you have more to give than you think, and can receive more too.

Anyway, that's what your words evoked in me, just a little Christmas carol of maybe doing the best we can with what we got, and get rewarded with kindness from strangers. Which is the core of the Christmas message, isn't it?

Do give some serious thought to living with your son for 15-20 years, and ask yourself how you'd like that.

And a very Merry Christmas to you.

Good luck on whatever you finally do.  I had my 68th birthday on the 22nd but can't envision leaving the boondocks.  Knowing what I (we) know about what's coming, I wouldn't be at peace with myself knowing that my future was totally beyond my control.

There's also sort of a philosophical issue for me.  Most retired people have no purpose in life - they just sort of hang around until they die.  Granted some do community service-oriented things or they travel (which, to me is killing time) as a "reward" for working in the past.  I look at what I do, and have to do, here from providing our heat by cutting firewood, growing a lot of our food, keeping all the alternative energy systems and vehicles going, etc. I've asked myself many times what I would do if I lived in a civilized area and the best I can come up with is drink beer, watch TV and putter in the yard.

There is also the serenity I find here.  No noise except the wind; no lights but the stars.  Places with poeple always have a background hiss of noise and it's never dark at might.  I always find myself tense when I spend time in urban/suburban areas.  I'd much rather have the bears, wild pigs, lions, bobcats, etc. to bitch about.

Until I got older, I never fully understood my Mom's frequent comment that she was glad she was born when she was (mid-1900's).  People of our age share a different reality too, of a time that was...from how people interacted and society worked to music.  It's hard to remember that I first saw Joan Baez at a concert 45 years ago before she became known.  The concert had about 200 people and cost two bucks.  And, let's face it, there wasn't any such thing as rock and roll when we were kids.

So, go in peace brother.  I understand we have to do what we have to do.  


PS If I were to chose a song for peak oil, it would be Dylan's I shall be released.

Here are the lyrics:

They say ev'rything can be replaced,
Yet ev'ry distance is not near.
So I remember ev'ry face
Of ev'ry man who put me here.
I see my light come shining
From the west unto the east.
Any day now, any day now,
I shall be released.

They say ev'ry man needs protection,
They say ev'ry man must fall.
Yet I swear I see my reflection
Some place so high above this wall.
I see my light come shining
From the west unto the east.
Any day now, any day now,
I shall be released.

Standing next to me in this lonely crowd,
Is a man who swears he's not to blame.
All day long I hear him shout so loud,
Crying out that he was framed.
I see my light come shining
From the west unto the east.
Any day now, any day now,
I shall be released.

airdale -

I'm certainly not qualified to play Ann Landers, but for what it's worth here's a few comments.

You said that your son and wife asked you to leave the farm and move in with them in NC. Would I understand correctly that your wife is currently living down there with your son? And that your son is currently not married?

If indeed that is the case, then you must take into consideration what the situation will be if and when your son does marry. It would change the family dynamics considerably. Even if your son is already married and you are on good terms with your daught-in-law, things can start to look very different once you're actually living there day to day.

I know firsthand from a ugly family situation in which my wife's widowed mother sold her house, gave the money to her son to buy a new house, and moved in with them. This lasted a tad over ten years, until the son's witch of wife pressured the son to kick his own mother out. I'm not saying this would or could happen to you, but just keep in mind that family situations can turn to shite real fast and with little or no warning.

Might it not be a good idea to first give it a trail period and move in with them for say a month during the winter and see how things feel?

My other thought is that if you are really worried about when TSHTF, wouldn't it be better if your son moved back onto the farm with you, rather than vice-versa? (Of course, he might not want to, but I'm just talking hypothetically.)

You definitely sound rather despondent (nay, totally bummed out), and during such periods it is usually not a good idea to make any major decisions.  For now, just try to have a pleasant holiday as best you can.

(That will be $100 for your fifty-minute hour of counseling  :-)  )

You have a lot of knowledge and experience that will very slowly go rusty over time. My gut feeling is that nothing is unlikely to happen in the world for the next 5 to 10 years that will scare you into thinking you have made a mistake by moving back to be with your wife and son. You will know when things are beginning to change for the worst and can act fast then, if you really want to.

If you decide to go back to farming land in a decade's time, you will be far ahead of people who have been thinking along your lines, but don't have your irreplaceable experience and knowledge. There will always be another farm + land to buy that will meet your needs. Then, you will have your family with you.

Life is for happiness as well as for toil. Take what happiness you can. Nobody lives forever, happiness and a healthy body count for a lot. Keeping in shape and not picking up injuries will be very important for you, as you will not heal anywhere near the rate of a 10 year old child.  

As a 78 year old, will you want to start throwing bales of hay around again? What future plans you have now as a 68 year old for the coming decade, will change when you are 78 or 88 planning 10 years ahead. When you are 78, you will be needing different skills, like yelling at your son and his son to move the hay bales, instead of doing it yourself. Your contribution will be knowing when to move the hay bales. Your son's will be moving them. And his son will be learning when and how to move the hay bales.

You will be missed here, but surely you can look in on TOD once in a long while. Other things will become much more important to you, but anybody can switch on a computer and read this site. In ten years time this site will have evolved out of all recognition and you will be smiling wistfully about how TOD 2 used to be so good, much better than the TOD 8 that you will be looking at.

Go for it, enjoy yourself and life! Live with your loved ones.

Airdale, let me join with others in wishing you well, no matter which path you choose.

For me, there is no other way forward but to fight.  Every.  Step.  Of.  The.  Way.  And in our situation, fighting means educating.  I've been doing my best through my own web site, and recently I've started giving presentations to local libraries and middle schools.

We are all in for some exceedingly interesting times with plenty of economic pain to go around, no doubt about that.  But I remain convinced that it will not be a case of TSHTF, the collapse of society, etc.

I know it's corny as hell, but I keep thinking of that scene in Apollo 13 when things are looking grim and one character says this will be NASA's greatest tragedy, and Ed Harris say he disagrees, and that it will be their greatest moment.  

Put another way, while I understand and respect science and economics and all the rest, above all else, I believe in people.  In our fellow travelers there's good and bad, enlightened and horribly ignorant, but I still believe in them collectively.  And the only sure defeat we face in this combination of energy and environmental messes is in giving up.  And I, for one, refuse to do so.

Very many thanks to those who expressed kind thoughts on my future.

A few minutes ago I told my wife of my decision so next week I will take a drive down and check it out and help my son in his decisions and actions.

My son is not married and I doubt he ever will. He is fairly high up in the government. He is a CPA , has his masters in accounting and can live where he wants. He loves NC and so does my wife. My wife and I have been very close to divorce for 3 years and living apart since she is not fond of farm life. I found that I couldn't leave her and  her health is not that good yet she also has a few good arrows left as well. She is 6 years younger than me but has had many health problems.

The house is big enough for two families if my son did marry and he is also dating a woman who is a CPA as well. Don't think we will have problems though.

I will report from time to time on what I see perhaps but if I don't then it has been very enlightening to have been a part of this group and the extremely intelligent members here.

Friday the shopping mall in Paducah,nearest city, was jammed up. Don't know about today or yesterday. Gas is $2.23 or so.

Merry Christmas to all the TODers and Hothgor as well as all the trolls and shillls.

Heres hoping that somehow this once great nationstate can work out a plan for survival. Tighten down and weather it out. Get a better administration in DC. Realize what has to be done and make it happen.

Thanks again to all who have read my rants , the good,the bad and the ugly.

Today my Christmas gift to myself is to go view 'The Good Shepherd', follow that with 'Eragon' and if time enough 'Rocky Balboa'.  I always was a movie buff. Part of going to drivein movies so much.


Good luck Airdale, whatever you decide.  I grew up in that area of Kentucky (Hopkinsville), but never had the affection for it that you obviously do.  Guess I prefer cooler, less humid weather.

I spent a great 30 years of my life in the Asheville, NC area. Mountain part of the state, but I still have great memories from NC. I can see the attraction of returning to your roots.
Best of luck.

From those loony liberals at the Washington Times

Is that meant to be a joke - the Washington Times is a serious right wingnut newspaper, right up there with Faux News.

Yes, it was meant to be a joke.  

That was what I found striking about the article - that a usually conservative writer for a rightwing paper was saying the free market won't work for peak oil.

Plenty of us "wingnuts" believe in Peak Oil.  An essay in The American Conservative brought me to TOD in the first place.

I'd like you to feel welcome and respected on this site, and be a real part of the discussion. Humanity needs more than one point of view at all times-only a hopelessly blind partisan thinks differently.

Thank you. I'll leave the politics out of it, anyway Dem. or Rep. matters little to geology.

I agree.

In my potentially biased opinion, I feel the density of people-who-are-suspicious-of-authentic-scientific-results-they-don't-like is more powerful on one side than the other at the moment. At least certainly in the USA.

The ones on the left side (seeing harms and profit-oriented environmental conspiracies everywhere, e.g. in power lines, etc) are mostly irrelevant, and have little effect on policy or politics. The issue of genetically modified crops in europe is an exception.

Those ascientific people on the right are by contrast quite powerful.

For instance the proportion who believe somehow in 'abiotic oil' as being significant contrary to all accepted science, and that it will rescue us and we need not worry about anything is much larger among the right, and religious conservatives. This 'God's abundance' ideology often goes with denial of global warming as either (1) real, (2) important (3) a consequence of humans.

Those on the left (tiny) are conspiracy theorists who believe that oil scarcity is a lie from oil companies to keep their power and profits from high prices.

My personal opinion is that there are some legitimate axes of debate on the best organization of human societies. But there are some areas where I feel positions have really "flown way off the manifold" (in the math-geek sense) of rational discourse which ought to characterize the civilized, modern, enlightened world.

Denial of strong scientific facts---with deep, harmful consequences---is a primary example.

A few days ago, tne Energy Bulletin report on

Ten Principles of Post Oil-Peak Planning
Tim Moerman, Atlantic Planners' Institute Annual Conference

The ten points are

  1. The laws of thermodynamics: no free lunch, death and taxes.

  2. Protect farmland at all costs. (And don't waste it growing biodiesel.)

  3. Moving people/stuff around is really hard. The basic purpose of a city is to avoid doing so.

  4. All new development should pass the $500-a-barrel test.

  5. Globalization will give way to re-localization.

  6. Adaptation = 90% conservation + 10% new supplies. We will use a lot less energy, period.

  7. Electricity-based systems are more resilient than combustion-based systems.

  8. Triage and Palliative Care: Avoid committing too many resources to urban/suburban areas with no long-term future ... but commit enough to minimize hardship and ease the transition.

  9. Be prepared for both gradual depletion and sudden shortages.

  10. Paradigms change overnight. Be ready for it.

My replies:

"1. The laws of thermodynamics: no free lunch, death and taxes."


"2. Protect farmland at all costs. (And don't waste it growing biodiesel.)"

Protect farmland for what? Why is growing biodiesel necessarily a waste? If the realistic alternative is horrible climate change from massive coal use, I say no.
Farmland is already heavily engineered human-modified land. We should have it
open to whatever we need it for.

"3. Moving people/stuff around is really hard. The basic purpose of a city is to avoid doing so."

True, but moving people/stuff around in a city is also really hard. Are the savings universally worth it? E.g. is bicycling in a city practical?

"4. All new development should pass the $500-a-barrel test."

Theoretically nice, but totally impractical. Who will agree on what the "test" is?
Who will enforce it?

"5. Globalization will give way to re-localization."

Strongly disagree. The energy cost of transporting goods in a container ship from Shanghai to Los Angeles is very low and very efficient---it costs more to truck to local shops than intercontinental travel. Oceangoing vessels will be able to use coal and even nuclear power: global shipping will be around for a very long time if security problems are managable.

Then, the telecommunications abilities with negligible distance costs will enable more globalization too. Unfortunately, not good for suburbans who want to telecommute. Any job which can be done remotely from Middle American Suburb can be done from a Middle Indian Suburb.

Global poverty from lack of oil will propel even more labor arbitrage. The cheapness of basic Chinese goods will make them even more in demand versus Western-produced luxury goods.

"6. Adaptation = 90% conservation + 10% new supplies. We will use a lot less energy, period.'

We will use a lot less OIL, period. If we end up using a lot less energy then we'd be in Mad Max land.

"7. Electricity-based systems are more resilient than combustion-based systems."

Because electricity can be produced by a diversity of sources? On that, I agree, but otherwise the assertion seems difficult. Electricity can't be effectively stored---the best and densest physically retreivable storage of energy is in hydrocarbon molecules.

"8. Triage and Palliative Care: Avoid committing too many resources to urban/suburban areas with no long-term future ... but commit enough to minimize hardship and ease the transition"

Which urban/suburban areas have no long term future? This is impossible to predict, I think.

"9. Be prepared for both gradual depletion and sudden shortages."

I think it's impossible to be prepared for sudden shortages more than the meager strategic petroleum reserve. I think we have to plan for gradual depletion as that is a certainty, and warn people to hang on in case there are sudden shortages.

"10. Paradigms change overnight. Be ready for it."

Those usually come from bad news and usually have bad consequences from hasty decisions.

RE: Nigerian militants hit close to home

I was going to recommend MEND for the Nobel Peace Prize next year, but the media coverage of the past few days makes that a lot harder.

I don't know how three guards were killed, who they were or worked for, but I do know that is not the signature of MEND.

Yes, they kidnap people in the industry, but only after they've told everyone to get out numerous times this year. Their patience is admirable, and so is the way they have treated their hostages, who so far are all freed within a few days of being taken captive.  Far as I can see, they go out of their way to avoid casualties. There've been deaths before, but always when the army or private guards shot first.

Still, the reports these days are changing, and make me expect a lot of bad press for MEND in our media in 2007, and I won't believe a word of it.

They want to stop what makes billion$ for others , but leaves their children behind in extreme poverty.

The symbolism of the sickly little boys and girls with unwashed faces, black with soot, who've never seen a star in the sky because of the 24/7 gas flaring is striking. It makes you wonder what you would do if they were your kids.
Me, personally, I might be a little less constrained.

I hope life will get better for them in 2007.

I have a couple of points about Global Warming.  There was an interesting program yesterday on the Science Channel called "Heat".  In one segment they discuss the recent discovery of a seven-day cycle in the weather. They went through 20 years of rainfall records and found out that, on average of course, it rains more on the weekends!  There is no seven-day cycle in nature, so this has to be a reflection of our human schedules.  We increase pollution levels during the week and it rains out on the weekends!

On a related note, it has just been determined that 2006 will likely come in as the sixth warmest year on record.  2005 was #1, followed by 1998.  So it has actually been slightly cooler this year than last, but we know that the level of GHG's has increased during 2006.  So it seems likely that the lower temps are due to thicker pollution, mostly from the increased burning of coal I would guess.  And burning forests, etc.

The more I see about the role of pollution in damping the effects of GW the more concerned I become that any reduction in these levels from economic slowdown/collapse will quickly unleash the full effects of climate change.

Merry Christmas to you too, you optimistic devil!
Believe me, I'm totally in favor of "Peace on Earth and Goodwill to Men" (Women, too!).

But I'm still concerned about my chestnuts getting roasted...

In one segment they discuss the recent discovery of a seven-day cycle in the weather

Could't have been too new. I remember reading about this at least 3 or 4 years ago.

And our best hopes and wishes for our friends down under.

If 2007 is another dry year in Australia, it will really start to crack, and change will probably be irreversible. Sydney was named last week as the first city in the world to run out of drinking water.

Farmers can't feed nor drink their sheep, and can't sell them either.

900 sheep and not one bid: may as well give them away

Cowra stock and station agent Ross Chivers said that on one "heartbreaking" sale day in the run up to Christmas more than 900 sheep went before the auctioneers and all failed to get a bid.

Disappointed farmers are breaking down and weeping at the saleyards, Mr Chivers said.

"One farmer paid $360 to get his sheep to the market and then had to pay another $360 to truck them home again," he said. "You can see the heartache there but those sheep now have no commercial value."

The drought has left many sheep producers with no feed. Hungry, scrawny sheep wander through the barren brown moonscapes of rural NSW.

And predictions are ominous:

'A war-like scenario'

The drought in Australia has lasted for more than five years.

The worry for some is that this could be the start of a protracted period of low rainfall that could go on for decades.

"The really scary thing is last time we had a drought of this intensity that lasted about five years - it lasted for about 50 years," cautioned Professor Andy Pitman from Macquarie University in Sydney.

"The politicians truly believe this is a five-year or six-year drought that will break sometime in 2007 or 2008. But it might not break until 2050 and we aren't thinking in those terms at this stage," Professor Pitman told the BBC.

It was Christmas Eve babe
In the drunk tank
An old man said to me, won't see another one
And then he sang a song
The Rare Old Mountain Dew
I turned my face away
And dreamed about you

Got on a lucky one
Came in eighteen to one
I've got a feeling
This year's for me and you
So happy Christmas
I love you baby
I can see a better time
When all our dreams come true

They've got cars big as bars
They've got rivers of gold
But the wind goes right through you
It's no place for the old
When you first took my hand
On a cold Christmas Eve
You promised me
Broadway was waiting for me

You were handsome
You were pretty
Queen of New York City
When the band finished playing
They howled out for more
Sinatra was swinging,
All the drunks they were singing
We kissed on a corner
Then danced through the night

The boys of the NYPD choir
Were singing "Galway Bay"
And the bells were ringing out
For Christmas day

You're a bum
You're a punk
You're an old slut on junk
Lying there almost dead on a drip in that bed
You scumbag, you maggot
You cheap lousy faggot
Happy Christmas your arse
I pray God it's our last

I could have been someone
Well so could anyone
You took my dreams from me
When I first found you
I kept them with me babe
I put them with my own
Can't make it all alone
I've built my dreams around you

copyright 1988 Shane MacGowan & Jem Finer

So that's my favourite Christmas song.  And one of my favourite movies - Groundhog Day - which I reckon Freddy hasn't seen.

Happy Christmas Leanan


Euan, never a better song for the season

Saw Jona Lewie, "Bring home the cavalry", last night, Falkland war, ot a btter song, but good all the same (how was that a war, don;t you need two parties, hey wait, how is Iraq a war?) and it's stuck in da brain: "Wish I was home for Christmas"

Here's to all who can't be.

Merry Christmas to you, too.

Personally, my favorite Christmas song is that classic, "Grandma Got Run Over By Reindeer."  :-)

Mine is Christmas Wrapping by the Waitresses

"Hardly dashing through the snow
Cause I bundled up too tight
Last minute have-to-dos
A few cards a few calls
'Cause it's r-s-v-p
No thanks, no party lights
It's Christmas Eve, gonna relax
Turned down all of my invites."


Americans would die of boredom if they were forced to consume less gasoline.
FWIW, a discussion of The Future of Oil Prices is occurring over at Overcoming Bias (apologies if previously linked)

Yeah and they are dangerously optimistic about "price signals" :

Quite clearly no such crisis would appear -- there is plenty of usable power around, and as the market starts to send price signals to producers and consumers, they will quite naturally move to the use of other power sources.

Sort of like how all those nations in Africa have quickly adapted with little pain to high oil prices in expensive external hard currency?

Comments by Boone Pickens

The Dallas Morning News has excerpts of an interview with Boone Pickens, in which he agrees that fossil fuel emissions are worsening Global Warming.  In regard to a question about Iraq and oil markets (he thinks that if we leave immediately that Iran may very well take over Iraq), he had the following comment:

I think in the next two years, events are going to come so fast it's going to be staggering.

In the personal action category, it might may have been a coincidence, but Boone Pickens endorsed a much higher gasoline tax, offset by cutting the Payroll Tax, after I wrote him a letter asking him to support the Energy Tax/Cut the Payroll Tax (obviously not an original idea on my part).

Note that Boone Pickens endorsed the Gas Tax/Cut the Payroll Tax idea before Al Gore (finally) endorsed it.  I think that the old liberal/conservative labels tend to break down when it comes to Peak Oil.   I think that there are two types of people--those who recognize the problem and those who are in denial.

I agree with Boone regarding rapidly unfolding events--with confirmed production declines in both Russia and Saudi Arabia at or near the top of the list.

WestTexas, you're correct that liberal/conservative labels are breaking down when trying to understand peak oil. My contention is that only a fool tries to label a hypothesis as a political issue, and further that we need all kinds o points of view in the US. Neither group is right about everything . Only a halfwit would consider Mr. Pickens to be other than a conservative in his personal political views.
  This year is about over. Next year I am personally resolved to remember what we all have in common-we love our families, we love our countries, and we love the people of the world and want them all to be safe, happy and free. We may disagree about the methods for securing these goals, but we have a lot more in common than divides us.
   So, may God, or the Gods and Godesses bless all of us this Christmas and in the coming year. Or the beauty of the human spirit, or all of the above in whatever way we worshp it. It sure looks like we need all the blessings we can get from whatever quarter. And remember, its better to light a Seven African Powers Prosperity candle than to curse the darkness! We're also going to need a good sense of humor!
Global warming claims its first human populated island.

Welcome to the future. May you live in interesting times.

I am currently reading Underworld  by Graham Hancock. It seems that inundation of civilisation goes back a long way, and is the basis for those ancient myths about flooding - Noah, Atlantis etc.

The irony is that this time it is caused by ourselves instead of nature.

GZ, if u examine the sources of this article u will see u have been hoodwinked. Eustatic sealevel has only risen 3-mm/yr since 1996. So unless u really believe that these folks lived on a sand bar 3cm above sea level ten years ago, this and many stories like it are for fools.

Clues to noneustatic sealevel change are any of the hundreds of spots on Earth that are based on atolls or suffer from massive sediment influxes at river mouths (eg the lousiana coastline).

Aw Freddie, you just like global warming because you live in the Yukon! I predict by February you'll be so stir crazy you'll advocate changing all nuclear plants to sub-bituminous coal.
Kidding aside, thats a valid point, sea level rise has been so small as yet its hard to see how its affected much land. I live on Galveston Island, a low barrier island off the coast of Texas. All of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast has been subsiding for the last 65 million years, but the rate is barely perceptible, certainly not over a human life span. Sea levels have risen since the end of the last ice age, there have been Folsum points found in dredged material on the Texas City Dike in Galveston Bay, and the rates have been studied and mapped by the University of Texas Bureau of Economic Geology.

Cool down oilmanbob, as smekhovo said "A bit spent on Fraudy Nutter is a bit wasted."

Bob, i'm in withdrawal for lack of skirts & bikinis up here. It was -44 a few days ago and november was the coldest since Yukon records started in 1944 (daily avg of -21).

NOAA used to have some awesome wwweb mapping of the submergent Gulf coastline, but methinx it got the axe 'cuz many were relating the rising waters to GW. The site also showed the emergent shorelines in Alaska where uplift is glacier related.

Freddy, you such a troll. 3mm is the global average, but some parts have been recording up to 30mm rise - it varies a lot depending on location. Given that many inhabited islands are now a mere 1m above MSL, it is quite probable that similar islands after a century of sea level rise have indeed been reduced to an uninhabitable sand bar.

They say a sucker is born every minute, but at TOD we have more than our share. I agree that MSL is not even. In fact due to prevailing winds, piling and rotation, it can be six feet higher in places and up to four feet lower in places. But those locales see this consistently. Or it can come and go with el nino & la nina events. Only a fool believes that MSL went up 30mm. You have one to many zero's my friend. This map shows the 340cm (11 foot) disparity:

Our coastlines are dynamic. Some are emergent. Others submergent. And the rates are commonly 9mm/yr, three times the rate of rising eustatic levels. The MSM is loaded with hard luck stories on coastines and islands, but if one studies the geography, u will see that all of it is based on erosion or sudsiding sediment or atolls.

It is becoming more clear by the absurd comments at tod that most posters are great new years eve party blowhards that know little about the science, politics or economics subjects discussed in this forum. My joy comes from knowing that their idiocy is forever stamped on their foreheads via google searches.

Freddy, you are truly an idiot. You did not even understand what I said, but spit out a load of graphs and gibberish which makes no sense. Your supercilious and insulting tone is quite obnoxious.


Over the past five years, the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the National Tidal Facility at Flinders University in Australia have established sea-level monitoring stations across the Pacific. Preliminary results show a sea-level rise of up to 25 millimetres per year – well above the global estimate of a 2-millimetre annual rise made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Satellite data have validated these findings, and shown a 20 to 30-millimetre per year sea-level rise in a region stretching from Papua New Guinea southeast to Fiji.

Please take your crap somewhere else.

It's truly sad when posters with an Agenda don't even fully read the articles they submit as background to their argument. The very next sentence to yours above states my position if full:

"Freak storms
This accelerated sea-level rise is thought to be linked mainly to the El Niño weather phenomenon, which has become markedly more frequent and intense over the past two decades. El Niño brings stronger storm surges to the Pacific and it is these, coupled with the underlying sea-level rise, that have swamped Kiribati’s motu.

Both in 1997 and 1998, unusual storm surges in Kiribati and the Republic of the Marshall Islands saw the tide just continuing to rise. Sea walls, bridges, causeways and roads were destroyed; houses and plantations were flooded.

Coastal erosion is now a continuing problem in most low-lying Pacific islands. Some of it, in more populated areas, can be blamed on inappropriate land-use practices, but this is not the whole story. Coasts of outer islands that have seen no development are also eroding."

Bob, did u really think this 25mm was going to be "annual" as in "per year" as the article states. In defending their position, or the authors, u prove yourself to be a MORON that believes all that is the written word.

These islands have been in the news for a decade. The MSM dismissed the stories five years ago 'cuz they saw in their due diligence that there was nothing in the story related to GW. It is an el nino ~ la nina story.

And these islands have seen much higher waters in the past 30 years than are exhibited today. The mapping i presented illustrates the wind driven piling that occurs naturally with decadal climate events. Yours are not "on top" of that shown...

You have been hoazed, my son.

Freddy, forever the optimist, forever the PO and climate change sceptic. Someone has told you only a 3mm rise, so that is it,no other data can shake you. This media report is carried in one of the UK's most prestigious papers, and reports the results of a 6-year study by Indian university:
It has been officially recorded in a six-year study of the Sunderbans by researchers at Calcutta's Jadavpur University. So remote is the island that the researchers first learned of its submergence, and that of an uninhabited neighbouring island, Suparibhanga, when they saw they had vanished from satellite pictures.


Yes, as in "horizon technology", at least for most of the US and EU society.  As prices for oil & nat gas increase so will the cost to develop and implement new technology such as fuel cell car production and hydrogen (H2) distribution systems.  Also the author's contention that H2 will be available from cracking CH4 (methane) is erroneous due to the future supply problems/price escalation of that fuel source.

From my experience in handling gaseous elements (aircraft O2 system), the leakage problems with H2 will prevent it from being widely used by the average auto driver.  Also, in a future where family incomes may decline due to recession/depression, I doubt many could afford the technology of hydrogen fuel cell cars.  Beside, who wants a car that would have short range for auto commuting only?  Maybe only "well to do" types that could afford two or three cars.

And what about the accident/explosion potential?  Would auto insurers write a policy for a car that is much more likely to cause a death in a collision due to the car's small size and potential for explosion?  How many house or building fires will occur from hydrogen leaking from older H2 fueled automobiles while inside a person's garage or in a parking facility?

The best case for hydrogen as an energy source is for wind & solar power making H2 from electrolysis when excess power generation is available.  H2 could be comnpressed and safely stored for future electical power generation by fuel cells which would then charge your electric car or power home/apt building during cloudy or calm days.  This system would work for local users, say in a neighborhood of individual closely spaced homes or for an apartment building having space for solar & wind power generation.

H2 for other transportaion purposes?  Too costly & too dangerous.  About 15 or more  years ago US DOT/FAA/NASA built a hydrogen powered passenger aircraft (jet).  It was a failure due to weight and range limitations.

Above comment on plane using hydrogen refers to the National Aerospace Plane which in a supersonic type plane powered by hydrogen. This plane has never gone past test stage and requires it to be launched from another plane already at altitude for it to fly.
NASA and DOT have done some studies of hydrogen powered conventional jet planes and find that due to weight & size of hydrogen fuel tanks holding liquid hydrogen, the plane would have a 25% less payload and shorter range. Liquid hydrogen carries much more energy per pound than JP-4 or other jet fuel, but has much lower density. Thus many more gallons of fuel must be carried, perhaps 50% more to go the same distance, after accounting for more weight & drag due to larger fuselage.

I was playing with the numbers from the CIA World Factbook specifically looking at a country's exposure to oil and natural gas usage in their economies. The figures for joules is only natural gas and oil -- coal and electricity aren't addressed or included. Russia is shocking, as is Malaysia and I didn't realize the UK was so dependent on fossil fuels. I was surprised at how much rail the US actually has.

a little "lite" reading on christmas eve ?


Peace to my fellow heathens out enjoying the solstice week.

Just watched "Crude Impact." Interesting. I highly recommend it. Heinburg puts forth the notion that even if we somehow miraculously could instantly develop a limitless power source, other resources will fall off the map.

Where have I heard that before...?