By the way, what do the TOD folk recommend for those last minute shoppers among us (sort of following in the footsteps of the rest of society in not doing anything about an oncoming problem until the last minute)?

If you could give one gift to maximize the resilience/survivability of the recipient, what would it be?

Assuming the necons, and by association the GWB administration, now really believes in PO, what is their plan?  

I believe things can change almost overnight, that is why a am a fast-crash doomer.  But I keep racking my brains for solutions and pushing for maximum Peakoil Outreach.

Imagine if the President got with the program, then issued a decree that only families that doubled, or tripled up into one house would get a huge rebate on solar installations; to essentially incentivize us back to a tribal inclusive fitness level lifestyle.  Virtually overnight half the housing in the country would be empty and the energy savings would be tremendous.

Why wait until energy prices force this doubling or tripling up anyway?  Why wait until the millions of bankrupt mortgagees have to abandon their homes and move back in with Mom & Dad?  Why wait until the stock market crashes taking our savings, pensions, Social Security, and 401Ks with it?  Why wait for catastrophe?

Why not start moving 60-75% of the US labor force to my hoped for 150 million wheelbarrows.  Why purposely choose 150 million rifles, and all the mayhem that will result, when we clearly know that 150 million wheelbarrows is what we will truly need after this mayhem?

I think that WaPo article was misguided because they did not encourage solution-thinking.  If that author was Captain of the Titanic: he would not even try to launch the lifeboats or send out a radio-mayday.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

For what it's worth, on Friday my wife went to a Macy's department store in a nearby mall to get a last-minute Christmas gift. She expected to encounter difficulty in finding a parking spot and large crowds in the stores, but the whole mall looked to be only a little bit more crowded than it would on a normal weekend.

Maybe it means something or maybe it doesn't, but it was somewhat unusual nonetheless.

I would agree with you - I drove past the typical big box store area / mall yesterday in Central NY during early evening.  Coming upon the exit off the highway I was expecting the ramp to be completely backed up with cars trying to get to the mall but there were only a few scattered cars waiting at the traffic light and just a lack of typical craziness...  I definitely had the sense that something weird was going on...

Catskill

-C.

And how in the world could the US have "already entered a severe recession/depression" without everyone, including the media, knowing?

Personally, I think that the nation-wide trends of buying gift cards and shopping online are starting to reduce the ratio of shopping center congestion to number of dollars spent.  People are either shopping online and not going to stores, or spending less time in stores because cards are such quick purchases.

First of all this is your life and your choice and options, and whatever you decide I hope will work out fine for you.

Still, between your words and lines I sense a Christmas sadness, something that is all too common. The time to be jolly, the time to be with family, can be hard, and is on many who don't have them close-by.

That, however, also means that it is not necessarily the best time to make drastic decisions. That's a general observation, not a personal; one towards you.

After reading your words, thank you for them, open and honest works for me, I was thinking a few things, don;t know why really.

First, you're 68, and that may feel old, but you may have quite a few good years left in you. You plan to move towards a life that may seem wonderful now, but you do have to ask if it would fulfill you for the next 15-20 years. Yes that is a real possibility.

Alternatively, depending on the fire of life and the energy you feel left in you, you can look at what you have, the farm, and see if you can make that something that more people could be fulfilled with, along with yourself, when times get bad. Farmland will save lives. It's worth more than pieces of gold.

And it's not just the land, for that you could just sell, to whoever, it's your knowledge of life and of farming and of the region etc., that makes you valuable in that setting, the value of lassing things on to the next generation (almost a forgotten art, isn't it?. But yes, you have to feel up to that sort of thing.

We face, through the energy crisis, as well as the financial crisis, both of which may strike soon, a rapidly shifting world (and country). There are millions of people, certainly the younger ones, who would love to learn how to farm, how to live closer to the earth. Granted, for many it will be sheer necessity, But let's leave some positive hope for the human spirit too. I think maybe you have more to give than you think, and can receive more too.

Anyway, that's what your words evoked in me, just a little Christmas carol of maybe doing the best we can with what we got, and get rewarded with kindness from strangers. Which is the core of the Christmas message, isn't it?

Do give some serious thought to living with your son for 15-20 years, and ask yourself how you'd like that.

And a very Merry Christmas to you.

There's also sort of a philosophical issue for me.  Most retired people have no purpose in life - they just sort of hang around until they die.  Granted some do community service-oriented things or they travel (which, to me is killing time) as a "reward" for working in the past.  I look at what I do, and have to do, here from providing our heat by cutting firewood, growing a lot of our food, keeping all the alternative energy systems and vehicles going, etc. I've asked myself many times what I would do if I lived in a civilized area and the best I can come up with is drink beer, watch TV and putter in the yard.

There is also the serenity I find here.  No noise except the wind; no lights but the stars.  Places with poeple always have a background hiss of noise and it's never dark at might.  I always find myself tense when I spend time in urban/suburban areas.  I'd much rather have the bears, wild pigs, lions, bobcats, etc. to bitch about.

Until I got older, I never fully understood my Mom's frequent comment that she was glad she was born when she was (mid-1900's).  People of our age share a different reality too, of a time that was...from how people interacted and society worked to music.  It's hard to remember that I first saw Joan Baez at a concert 45 years ago before she became known.  The concert had about 200 people and cost two bucks.  And, let's face it, there wasn't any such thing as rock and roll when we were kids.

So, go in peace brother.  I understand we have to do what we have to do.  

Todd

PS If I were to chose a song for peak oil, it would be Dylan's I shall be released.

I'm certainly not qualified to play Ann Landers, but for what it's worth here's a few comments.

You said that your son and wife asked you to leave the farm and move in with them in NC. Would I understand correctly that your wife is currently living down there with your son? And that your son is currently not married?

If indeed that is the case, then you must take into consideration what the situation will be if and when your son does marry. It would change the family dynamics considerably. Even if your son is already married and you are on good terms with your daught-in-law, things can start to look very different once you're actually living there day to day.

I know firsthand from a ugly family situation in which my wife's widowed mother sold her house, gave the money to her son to buy a new house, and moved in with them. This lasted a tad over ten years, until the son's witch of wife pressured the son to kick his own mother out. I'm not saying this would or could happen to you, but just keep in mind that family situations can turn to shite real fast and with little or no warning.

Might it not be a good idea to first give it a trail period and move in with them for say a month during the winter and see how things feel?

My other thought is that if you are really worried about when TSHTF, wouldn't it be better if your son moved back onto the farm with you, rather than vice-versa? (Of course, he might not want to, but I'm just talking hypothetically.)

You definitely sound rather despondent (nay, totally bummed out), and during such periods it is usually not a good idea to make any major decisions.  For now, just try to have a pleasant holiday as best you can.

(That will be $100 for your fifty-minute hour of counseling  :-)  )

If you decide to go back to farming land in a decade's time, you will be far ahead of people who have been thinking along your lines, but don't have your irreplaceable experience and knowledge. There will always be another farm + land to buy that will meet your needs. Then, you will have your family with you.

Life is for happiness as well as for toil. Take what happiness you can. Nobody lives forever, happiness and a healthy body count for a lot. Keeping in shape and not picking up injuries will be very important for you, as you will not heal anywhere near the rate of a 10 year old child.  

As a 78 year old, will you want to start throwing bales of hay around again? What future plans you have now as a 68 year old for the coming decade, will change when you are 78 or 88 planning 10 years ahead. When you are 78, you will be needing different skills, like yelling at your son and his son to move the hay bales, instead of doing it yourself. Your contribution will be knowing when to move the hay bales. Your son's will be moving them. And his son will be learning when and how to move the hay bales.

You will be missed here, but surely you can look in on TOD once in a long while. Other things will become much more important to you, but anybody can switch on a computer and read this site. In ten years time this site will have evolved out of all recognition and you will be smiling wistfully about how TOD 2 used to be so good, much better than the TOD 8 that you will be looking at.

Go for it, enjoy yourself and life! Live with your loved ones.

For me, there is no other way forward but to fight.  Every.  Step.  Of.  The.  Way.  And in our situation, fighting means educating.  I've been doing my best through my own web site, and recently I've started giving presentations to local libraries and middle schools.

We are all in for some exceedingly interesting times with plenty of economic pain to go around, no doubt about that.  But I remain convinced that it will not be a case of TSHTF, the collapse of society, etc.

I know it's corny as hell, but I keep thinking of that scene in Apollo 13 when things are looking grim and one character says this will be NASA's greatest tragedy, and Ed Harris say he disagrees, and that it will be their greatest moment.  

Put another way, while I understand and respect science and economics and all the rest, above all else, I believe in people.  In our fellow travelers there's good and bad, enlightened and horribly ignorant, but I still believe in them collectively.  And the only sure defeat we face in this combination of energy and environmental messes is in giving up.  And I, for one, refuse to do so.

A few minutes ago I told my wife of my decision so next week I will take a drive down and check it out and help my son in his decisions and actions.

My son is not married and I doubt he ever will. He is fairly high up in the government. He is a CPA , has his masters in accounting and can live where he wants. He loves NC and so does my wife. My wife and I have been very close to divorce for 3 years and living apart since she is not fond of farm life. I found that I couldn't leave her and  her health is not that good yet she also has a few good arrows left as well. She is 6 years younger than me but has had many health problems.

The house is big enough for two families if my son did marry and he is also dating a woman who is a CPA as well. Don't think we will have problems though.

I will report from time to time on what I see perhaps but if I don't then it has been very enlightening to have been a part of this group and the extremely intelligent members here.

Friday the shopping mall in Paducah,nearest city, was jammed up. Don't know about today or yesterday. Gas is $2.23 or so.

Merry Christmas to all the TODers and Hothgor as well as all the trolls and shillls.

Heres hoping that somehow this once great nationstate can work out a plan for survival. Tighten down and weather it out. Get a better administration in DC. Realize what has to be done and make it happen.

Thanks again to all who have read my rants , the good,the bad and the ugly.

Today my Christmas gift to myself is to go view 'The Good Shepherd', follow that with 'Eragon' and if time enough 'Rocky Balboa'.  I always was a movie buff. Part of going to drivein movies so much.

airdale

That was what I found striking about the article - that a usually conservative writer for a rightwing paper was saying the free market won't work for peak oil.

My replies:

"1. The laws of thermodynamics: no free lunch, death and taxes."

Incontrovertible.

"2. Protect farmland at all costs. (And don't waste it growing biodiesel.)"

Protect farmland for what? Why is growing biodiesel necessarily a waste? If the realistic alternative is horrible climate change from massive coal use, I say no.
Farmland is already heavily engineered human-modified land. We should have it
open to whatever we need it for.

"3. Moving people/stuff around is really hard. The basic purpose of a city is to avoid doing so."

True, but moving people/stuff around in a city is also really hard. Are the savings universally worth it? E.g. is bicycling in a city practical?

"4. All new development should pass the $500-a-barrel test."

Theoretically nice, but totally impractical. Who will agree on what the "test" is?
Who will enforce it?

"5. Globalization will give way to re-localization."

Strongly disagree. The energy cost of transporting goods in a container ship from Shanghai to Los Angeles is very low and very efficient---it costs more to truck to local shops than intercontinental travel. Oceangoing vessels will be able to use coal and even nuclear power: global shipping will be around for a very long time if security problems are managable.

Then, the telecommunications abilities with negligible distance costs will enable more globalization too. Unfortunately, not good for suburbans who want to telecommute. Any job which can be done remotely from Middle American Suburb can be done from a Middle Indian Suburb.

Global poverty from lack of oil will propel even more labor arbitrage. The cheapness of basic Chinese goods will make them even more in demand versus Western-produced luxury goods.

"6. Adaptation = 90% conservation + 10% new supplies. We will use a lot less energy, period.'

We will use a lot less OIL, period. If we end up using a lot less energy then we'd be in Mad Max land.

"7. Electricity-based systems are more resilient than combustion-based systems."

Because electricity can be produced by a diversity of sources? On that, I agree, but otherwise the assertion seems difficult. Electricity can't be effectively stored---the best and densest physically retreivable storage of energy is in hydrocarbon molecules.

"8. Triage and Palliative Care: Avoid committing too many resources to urban/suburban areas with no long-term future ... but commit enough to minimize hardship and ease the transition"

Which urban/suburban areas have no long term future? This is impossible to predict, I think.

"9. Be prepared for both gradual depletion and sudden shortages."

I think it's impossible to be prepared for sudden shortages more than the meager strategic petroleum reserve. I think we have to plan for gradual depletion as that is a certainty, and warn people to hang on in case there are sudden shortages.

"10. Paradigms change overnight. Be ready for it."

Those usually come from bad news and usually have bad consequences from hasty decisions.

In one segment they discuss the recent discovery of a seven-day cycle in the weather

Could't have been too new. I remember reading about this at least 3 or 4 years ago.

Saw Jona Lewie, "Bring home the cavalry", last night, Falkland war, ot a btter song, but good all the same (how was that a war, don;t you need two parties, hey wait, how is Iraq a war?) and it's stuck in da brain: "Wish I was home for Christmas"

Here's to all who can't be.

Personally, my favorite Christmas song is that classic, "Grandma Got Run Over By Reindeer."  :-)

Yeah and they are dangerously optimistic about "price signals" :

Quite clearly no such crisis would appear -- there is plenty of usable power around, and as the market starts to send price signals to producers and consumers, they will quite naturally move to the use of other power sources.

The irony is that this time it is caused by ourselves instead of nature.

http://www.satelliteviews.net/cgi-bin/w.cgi?c=in&UF=387417&UN=484044&AF=T_L

GZ, if u examine the sources of this article u will see u have been hoodwinked. Eustatic sealevel has only risen 3-mm/yr since 1996. So unless u really believe that these folks lived on a sand bar 3cm above sea level ten years ago, this and many stories like it are for fools.

Clues to noneustatic sealevel change are any of the hundreds of spots on Earth that are based on atolls or suffer from massive sediment influxes at river mouths (eg the lousiana coastline).

Above comment on plane using hydrogen refers to the National Aerospace Plane which in a supersonic type plane powered by hydrogen. This plane has never gone past test stage and requires it to be launched from another plane already at altitude for it to fly.
NASA and DOT have done some studies of hydrogen powered conventional jet planes and find that due to weight & size of hydrogen fuel tanks holding liquid hydrogen, the plane would have a 25% less payload and shorter range. Liquid hydrogen carries much more energy per pound than JP-4 or other jet fuel, but has much lower density. Thus many more gallons of fuel must be carried, perhaps 50% more to go the same distance, after accounting for more weight & drag due to larger fuselage.

a little "lite" reading on christmas eve ?