Drum(stick)Beat: November 23, 2006

[Update by Leanan on 11/23/06 at 1:27 PM EDT]

Paying the Piper: What if Russian gas runs low?

EUROPE has accustomed itself to a version of Russia and of Russian policy which goes like this: post-Soviet Russia is not only awash with oil and gas, it is using that energy wealth to promote its great-power ambitions through bullying and bribery. But what happens to the calculation if Russia is not an energy bully, but an energy beggar?

Russia reckons it will be short of 4.2 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas next year—enough to fuel a couple of small countries.

Wind shifts; ships take on oil again

The loading of oil tankers at Valdez resumed Wednesday after days of high winds that forced a slowdown in the flow of crude down the trans-Alaska pipeline.

Mike Heatwole, spokesman for Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., said the wind was still blowing but the direction had changed, allowing for loading operations to start again.

Throughput stood at about 300,000 barrels a day, less than half of normal for the 800-mile pipeline from the North Slope.

Putin Snubs Calls to Hike Gas Price

President Vladimir Putin took his government to task Wednesday for its poor handling of power shortfalls. But he stopped short of acting on the advice of top officials to jack up the price of natural gas to avert a mounting energy crisis.

"If everything had been done as needed, there would be no breakdowns, and people would not suffer," Putin said at a long-anticipated strategy meeting in the Kremlin.

But, he added, "almost nothing has been done. Thousands of people are now without fuel or electricity."

Energy waste boosts data centre costs

The UK is heading towards energy shortages because of companies' burgeoning use of IT, according to new research yesterday that called on companies to install lower-power technology to save money and the planet.

John Michael Greer: Christmas Eve 2050: Q&A

Pupils Evacuated After Warning at Nuclear Plant

In the first nuclear-related evacuation since the Three Mile Island accident of 1979, a Tennessee school district sent all 1,800 pupils home on Tuesday morning because operators at a nearby nuclear reactor believed they might have had a leak of radioactive cooling water inside the plant.

Gold, Uranium, Base Metals and Oil Are Heading Much Higher

More and more industry experts are accepting the fact that some of the easiest oil will come off stream by 2015 and 2020, thereby raising the price. And incidentally, the well you mentioned — it was a Chevron well and it was a $100 million well. So we are drilling these things, but they are vastly more expensive than they were coming out of Saudi Arabia in 1936.

Ireland: Mayor calls for council to join Nuclear Free Forum

EP’s Foreign Commission Approves of a Possible Delay of Shutting down NPP Kozloduy’s Units 3 and 4

SOFIA - The Foreign Commission of the European Parliament (EP) has voted “in favor” of a possibility of an eight-month postponement of shutting down units 3 and 4 of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Kozloduy, the Bulgaria in EU press centre reported.

India: Oil & gas explorers face talent crunch

MUMBAI: Retaining talent in the exploration and production (E&P) segment has become one of the most challenging tasks in the oil and gas business. The problem has aggravated with the surge in interest among global oil and gas majors in India following major hydrocarbon discoveries in the past four years.

Researchers gaze at cloud formations

Finnish researchers analyzing cloud formations say ozone destruction in the Earth's stratosphere might be occurring at a faster pace than thought.

Oil prices about to rise, energy expert warns

Commodity Strategists: Oil Prices May Fall 9% in '07, CFC Says

U.S. crude oil prices may fall as much as 9 percent next year as global supply rebounds, outpacing growth in demand, CFC Seymour Ltd. said.

Nigeria plans to build nuclear power plants to meet energy needs by 2015

India: Nuke power to be predominant form of energy

The quest for clean energy: China's green revolution

The air in Beijing was classified as 'hazardous' this week as the city became choked with smog, but following dire warnings of rampant pollution, alternatives are emerging.

India: Corn finds future in energy

Rice as a source of electricity

Rice yields an abundance of biowaste: Husks make up around one quarter of the weight. Only a small fraction of this is utilized, for instance, to fire distillery furnaces. Researchers at Hanoi University of Technology now also want to use rice husks to generate electricity.

Russia Says Will Sue Shell in International Court for Sakhalin-2 Environmental Damages

Head for the hills - the new survivalists

So what do you do when you're pretty sure that the end of the world as we know it is coming soon, but your girlfriend doesn't believe you? Sure, she might nod her head when you confront her with some of the gloomier facts, but then she shrugs and goes back to her pursuit of modern pleasures. She doesn't like it when you talk about it to other people, either. No one likes being told their hopes and dreams are about to turn to dust.

Happy Thanksgiving Eat, drink, and be merry...for tomorrow it will be more expensive. CNN reports that ethanol is driving up the price of turkeys, because it's driving up the price of the corn they are fed. And it's not just turkey:

Ethanol Drives Up Food Commodity Prices

Global ethanol production is driving up prices for food commodities, from feed stocks such as sugar, to meat, said Datagro, Brazil's biggest sugar-industry forecasting firm.

WWF award for Nasa scientist who sounded climate alarm

A leading Nasa researcher who pioneered the case for tough action to combat climate change in the US has been awarded the WWF's top conservation award. James Hansen, whose testimony to the US senate on global warming is featured in Al Gore's film An Inconvenient Truth, received the medal from the Duke of Edinburgh at a ceremony yesterday at St James's Palace in London.

Indonesian pipeline blast kills 8, mud flow blamed

SIDOARJO, Indonesia - Indonesia blamed an uncontrolled mud flow on Thursday for a gas pipeline explosion that killed at least seven people and injured 12 on Java island.

3 Malaysian palm oil entities to merge

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia - Three of Malaysia's largest palm oil producers are to merge, Malaysia's Deputy Prime Minister said Thursday, a fusion that could potentially create the world's biggest biofuels company and its largest publicly-traded palm oil entity.

Hostage killed in Nigeria rescue try

PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria - One of seven foreign oil workers taken hostage Wednesday was killed and another was wounded during a rescue attempt that also left two kidnappers and a soldier dead, officials said.

Iraq, reversing course, to keep U.N. oil watchdog

UNITED NATIONS - Iraq has decided to keep alive for another year a U.N. watchdog to monitor the use of its oil wealth, reversing course just weeks after announcing the agency would be abolished, officials said on Wednesday.

London blazes anti-pollution trail with vehicle congestion charge

LONDON (AFP) - London is blazing a trail for the world's cities by slapping "congestion" charges on vehicles to reduce traffic, curb air pollution and fight global warming, environmentalists say.

The US west coast city of San Francisco and Sweden's capital Stockholm are jumping on the bandwagon set in motion by London Mayor Ken Livingstone in 2003. French cities, including the capital Paris, are now studying such a charge.

You guys miss me?  I miss you.  Just sending you my love on this lovely morning...


Yes but we didn't moon and pine for you.
Hello AC,

Happy Thxsgiving Day to you and all TODers, especially Leanan!  Peace!

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

I miss you. Hey, I'm sure by now you've heard this story about the ex-Russian spy who got fed a Thallium-special in London. Responsible for "exposing" Russian "security services" involvement in the apartment bombings that killed 300. To create a casus belli for Chechnya. Now there's a conspiracy I can believe. How about you? Forget the neocons. Putin is scary. Russia is scary.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody. Gobble, Gobble.

"Given the right leadership and sufficient external threat, the primary product of such spirituality may be extraordinary social cohesion.
...Almost every leader of note has, either consciously or unconsciously, fished these murky waters at some time or other.

Their reward is a united people armed with humanity's shining Excalibur.  To unsheathe this magic blade, such visionary leaders must first win over the populace with the primal fairy tale, which invariably contains two ingredients;

1.) A Monster-preferably one who speaks an alien tongue, prays to heathen gods, wears peculiar clothing, and/or has different-colored skin.
2.) A Miracle-earned only by sacrifice, but culminating in triumph for the home team and a nasty end for the Monster.

This tired old routine has worked its magic with astonishing regularity since the dawn of history, and no one with fully functioning DNA seems wholly immune to the lure of it.  Its genetic nature shines through the grisly statistics that follow every major conflict, especially those that incorporate genocidal slaughter."
~Reg Morrison, 1999 "The Spirit in the Gene, Humanity's Proud Illusion and the Laws of Nature"

Of course the godless heathens in Russia are scary Mr. CEO because you spent much of your life being propagandized that they were the enemy.  It's not much of a leap because the decision has been cleverly made for you whether or not to believe Russia would bomb its own citizens and that we would not.  Now the propaganda machine has a new face for the "monster" because the old one no longer fills the bill.  What better "monster" to replace international communism than international terrorism?  Oh my will we ever be safe?  The only reason you can not fathom that your own tribe stoops to that level itself is because you are genetically wired not to think that way.  Don't worry that is the way propaganda is suppose to work.  It preys upon your "primitive brain" while your cortex is filled with pleasures.  You need not burden yourself with this.  All that is required of you is to grab a flag support your tribe at all costs...

"In reality very little was known about the proles. It was not necessary to know much. So long as they continued to work and breed, their other activities were without importance. Left to themselves, like cattle turned loose upon the plains of Argentina, they had reverted to a style of life that appeared to be natural to them, a sort of ancestral pattern. They were born, they grew up in the gutters, they went to work at twelve, they passed through a brief blossoming-period of beauty and sexual desire, they married at twenty, they were middle-aged at thirty, they died, for the most part, at sixty. Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbours, films, football, beer, and above all, gambling, filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult. A few agents of the Thought Police moved always among them, spreading false rumours and marking down and eliminating the few individuals who were judged capable of becoming dangerous; but no attempt was made to indoctrinate them with the ideology of the Party. It was not desirable that the proles should have strong political feelings. All that was required of them was a primitive patriotism which could be appealed to whenever it was necessary to make them accept longer working-hours or shorter rations. And even when they became discontented, as they sometimes did, their discontent led nowhere, because being without general ideas, they could only focus it on petty specific grievances. The larger evils invariably escaped their notice."

Missing You,

Must the monster have a human face?

We sure seems to try to get global warming and peak oil to fit the bill.

The "monster" maintains social cohesion and assists in wrestling away any remaining "liberties" in the republic to pave the way for the destruction of the nation state system.  The North American Union will in due process bring about the surrender of the sovereignty of the former United States.  We are moving through a transition and order will come from the chaos.   Peak oil and global warming are the modalities that will convince everyone why it is absolutely necessary to live in squalor.  If they succeed in merging the continents and completing the global governing body, in theory they can eliminate war as we think of it due to the destruction of the nation state system.  Feverous war propaganda will be replaced with fear of environmental destruction [right Al?].
I'm not saying there is no factual basis to global warming and peak oil.  I'm just saying we don't have all the data and don't know the extent which the data is being manipulated...


Quite a nutty theory.
Look at the links right below this post.  Is it nutty or is it just happening?

"The exact contrary of what is generally believed is often the truth."
~Jean de la Bruyère

OIL WTF are you ???
Sorry, I'm reading this stuff now, I'll get back to you, thanks;) I'm always open to different points of view.

Peter Phillips? Name ring a bell? Did I spell it right? Big guy, grey hair and beard. Just saw a conference of conspiracy theorists from Berkeley on BookTV last night. I think it originally happened on Sept. 24th. Pretty Good. I mean, I'm not sure if I agree, but they were at least getting their message out.


Peter Phillips is in this video too.  It should be on C-Span 2 this weekend.

you let me down
I'm reading it now. Chill. You have my undivided attention. I'll respond tomorrow afternoon. I'm burnt out and have a lot to do in the morning. Have faith. You aren't the first I've let down. But I always make it up.
"Forget the neocons. Putin is scary. Russia is scary."

CEO,  I say don't worry about the Russians and worry about the neo-cons.  Well not really the neo-cons but the CFR.  Putin is a fucking pussy cat.  There are much bigger conspiracies to ferret out right at home.  Take a look at what Dobbs is just barely scratching the surface of:



All under the guise of "security" from those nasty Muslims don't you know?  Who needs annoying borders when you can just scrap them all together and hold hands?  Hey can we still call it a conspiracy when it hits the news to soften up the proles or am I still just a crazy?  I know I know; nothing to worry about Peak Oil is just around the corner.

I'm putting my bet that merging the US with Canada and Mexico along with the destruction of the US standard of living to that of the average Mexican is part of a short term "solution" to the energy situation.  

Na dem rich peoples to stupid to knows anthings about dat peaks oil.  Only dus engineers and matamaticians knws about that...

Sorry about the straw man.  I couldn't resist...


CEO.  Shit please forgive me! I'm getting carried away already.  I didn't mean to trouble you with that posting.  It's not meant for proles like us to actually comprehend what is happening.  The system is not designed that way and it is a bit off topic.


"In a way, the world-view of the party imposed itself most successfully on the people incapable of understanding it. They could be made to accept the most flagrant violations of reality, because they never fully grasped the enormity of what was demanded of them, and were not sufficiently interested in public events to notice what was happening. By lack of understanding, they remained sane. They simply swallowed everything, and what they swallowed did them no harm, because it left no residue behind, just like a grain of corn will pass undigested through the body of a bird."
~George Orwell

You're still going to have to tell us where you have been and how you escaped.

I go from one wireless hotspot to the next only posting to lists through anonymous proxies.  I'm working on setting up a mailbox through http://www.ultimate-anonymity.com/ once I can confirm they are legit.  It's possible they may be cutout for the CIA.  I'm not safe yet and I'm still on the move.  I never stay in the same place more than two consecutive days.  I'll drop you a message when I can find a reliable remailer.  I don't know long I can keep this up.  Thanks for your support man.

Never surrender,

Wow - you do realize that if you have that level of concern, using a computer is just stupid?

Unless you are using a PII or older AMD processor, know something about MAC reassignment, spoofing at various levels, and on and on. And note that the people that do know such things will tell you in all seriousness, why bother if your goal is to stay unknown?

A networked computer is the antithesis of private or secret.

"why bother if your goal is to stay unknown?"

Oh I'm known.  I just can't give away my exact location or it's "American Rendition" for me baby!!


Thanks for your support man.

I'm behind you all the way.

I keep wondering about the full crude storage, but continued drawdown of refined products - and about the best I can guess is that supply disruptions are anticipated for crude.

That the price of crude remains 'stubbornly high' at $60 is a given for the last quarter, not counting market speculation as a factor.

A slowing economy in the U.S. can also be considered a given - and a slowing economy has implications for refined products first - which are still being drawn down, and are at a level just a little lower than last year's level (think about that little lower compared to last year for a second...).

So, refined products still seem to be sold at a normal rate, commercial crude storage is full it appears, and the SPR expansion seems to be on hold. Does this make much sense?

It could if you are concerned about any Iranian based supply disruptions.

Maybe the next round of poker at the geostrategic table is about to get started, maybe after the holidays, or maybe when winter is winding down? Possibly even provoked, since then any economic downturn can be blamed on the evildoers of the Islamic Republic, who just happened to cause the price of oil to explode due to their evilness. After all, turning cause and effect, or truth and lies, on their head is a particular skill of the Bush League, and they don't have a lot of strengths left to play to.

Is the sort of above ground factor that CERA means?

Even though I am gun-shy about predictions these days, the week after Christmas is a period to watch.  In my mind, Bush does not want to start anything that will kill the biggest retail season of the year because it is one of the only things keeping the economy afloat (more personal debt).

If he is going to do something provocative, he also needs to do it before the new Democratic congress gets started in January.

So, I'm not predicting, but merely saying that the probabilities are increased at this time.

So, everyone....enjoy this holiday season as much as possible...be with friends, family...enjoy food and drink...give thanks to things/people that make your life meaningful...and above all...pray to God(s), Gaia, or whatever gives you inner strength...that we will all be together again same time next year.

CERA "Peak oil Flawed" has managed to show up #1 on google for "peak oil". Coincidence? You be the judge  :-)
That's a sponsored link. Not a regular search result.
Someone (CERA) paid for that.

So no, not a coincidence.

I say CONSPIRACY!!  Possibly the handy work of those crafty shape shifting lizards.
I didn't show up in the top fifty when I tried it just now. Paranoia? Can I be the jury too?
I see it in a little blue box right above the results.
Its not a normal result, but a sponsored link.

Peak Oil Theory Flawed
www.CERA.com      CERA's view of the Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources


There, took a screen shot. But now I get two sponsored links when before I just got the Cera one.

Thanks. I still don't get any ads at the top, but then I'm in Thailand. Maybe we're not worth advertizing to or conspiring against.

My point stands that there is a lot of jumping at shadows going on here. Peak oil would have a lot more credibility if we could focus on the issues and not pretend that we are in some kind of bad spy novel.

I agree, there is a lot of shadow jumping as you put it.

However someone paid for that ad. Its not random, they choose the search term "peak oil".

Someone is trying to discredit peak oil. Someone is funding CERA, someone is paying for this sponsored link.

I'm not assigning motives or naming suspects cause I don't know. But this is very interesting.

Broadly, I agree there is something to this.

It is interesting that CERA does seem to be positioning themselves as an anti-peak oil voice. To the degree that there is a question, it seem to be:

Is CERA a consulting firm that believes what they say, or are they acting as a PR agency promoting a message regardless of their beliefs?

I imagine the answer is complex and we will never know what it is. I do agree with you that it is interesting and lends credence to the idea that someone wants to get an anti-peak oil message out there.

I am sure that CERA paid for the ad, but to the degree that they are playing a PR role, they paid on behalf of someone else. My guess is Saudi Arabia. But it could be Exxon, etc.

On further thought, I think your point is correct, important and convincing.

I think a few strong pieces of evidence like this will be far more powerful than all the shadow jumping, finder pointing, conspiracy spinning, and Manichean world view portrayals done since the start of TOD.

The advertsing firm usually pays per click (highest is for a form of asbestos lung cancer & New York, over $50/click).

I clicked >:-)


So did I :-)

Interesting strategy. You get to read a misleading press-release; then you see the full report costs $63 a page so by definition it is very valuable private information and therefore must be true.


Forgive this mere English teacher, volunteer FF/EMT, farmer and lay reader for pretending to question the self-professed experts on this forum, but I'd like to show the progress of opinion in a dispute between Freddy Hutter and Ali Samsam Bakhtiari.

Now, this is not an open disagreement between the two. Mr Hutter has cast aspersions on Bakhtiari's figures in another thread:

"Bakhtiari used IEA's all liguids data sets.  His forecast of 82-mbd was for all liquids.  See my TOD links to his original data presentations.  IEA's current forecast for 2006 is 85.2-mbd.  We don't include him as a modeler due to his old data and massive miss.  WOCAP is a pretender."

I weary of the clouds of confusing data that keep wafting through here, so I decided [naively?] to use The Google and The Internets: I emailed Dr Bakhtiari about it. Here's his [prompt] response:

"Mr. Bendzela,
Thank you for support of WOCAP, you can see more on my
website at  www.samsambakhtiari.com.
Comments on quote:

  1. Never used IEA's data sets.
  2. Yes, major forecast for 'All Liquids' at around
81-82 mb/d in 2006 and 2007.
  1. Massive miss?? what's that !!
  2. WOCAP is a pretender: sure... know of any other
model predicting that precisely ??
World has peaked, we are in 'Post-Peak', follow WOCAP
to see where we are headed for.
Samsam Bakhtiari."

Also, here's his explanation, from his own website:

"At its [WOCAP's] very foundation are conventional oil's global 'Ultimate Recoverable Reserves' (URR) of 1,900 billion barrels developed by Dr. Colin Campbell [2]. Other relevant inputs are taken from either the BP PLC databases [3] or the author's personal sources."

When I posted this for Hutter to see, he responded thus:

"As mentioned, we did all this months ago.  Look at his graphs and tables.  All the supply figures from the 90's are exactly the same as IEA's "all liquids" and he footnotes IEA at the bottom."

OK. So I go back to Bakhtiari's website and find his graphs:


Here you find just what Khebab posted respresenting Bakhtiari's prediction: just over 80 mmbd, around the year 2007. The side bar states this is for "CO + NGL."

Where's the "footnote" to IEA at the bottom? Since Bakhtiari mentions "oil" many times in his explanation, who cares whether his figures happen to coincide with the IEA's "all liquids" figures?

What the fuck is all liquids anyway? Bakhtiari never mentions upgraded tar, watered-down heavy sour sludge, bootlegged moonshine, used fry-o-later oil, refinery "gains," or urine samples. I think it's safe to assume he counts what Campbell counts, since that's who he cites as a source, not IEA.

If Hutter would like to call Dr Bakhtiari a liar, he can email him here. Or he can go back to hell where he came from.

I plan to spend more time reading than writing. I got tired of posting at peakoil.com, and I'm getting tired of it here--NOT because there is anything wrong with these sites--they're both great--but because I am exhausted trying to sift through the bullshit to get at the truth.

You need to have a "do not waste time on" list, and put Freddy Hutter at the top of it.
My conclusion is that these internet forums are a crock of shit. Any fuckhead can post anything he pleases, and few of us are going to take the time to double check what he says.

I say this with apologies to westexas, Khebab, Dave C and others who make a sincere effort to educate.

So: I'm preparing like a motherfucker, because I'm not sure what's going to happen, even after reading about this continually since 2003, interviewing my own geology professor about it, and wasting my breath trying to get others interested. Professor Hatfield has completely lost interest in trying to warn people about it, given how he has written articles and given lectures since the early 80s.

If that's not enough to make you shit your pants, I don't know what is. Certainly not my dabbling here on the internets.

My conclusion is that these internet forums are a crock of shit. Any fuckhead can post anything he pleases, and few of us are going to take the time to double check what he says.

If I had a barrel of oil for every time I've thought this,
we'd be a century away from peak.

If Hutter would like to call Dr Bakhtiari a liar, he can email him here. Or he can go back to hell where he came from.

I am striving mightily to avoid responding to either Hothgor or Freddy.  

Of course, sometimes I just can't avoid it, e.g., Hothgor's recent (flagrantly false) revelation that Texas oil fields produced at 100% of allowable up until the time Texas peaked.  His point was that I couldn't use Texas as a model for KSA (becuase he claimed that Texas produced at 100% of allowable up until peak).

I've begun to have second thoughts about Hothgor (Freddy?) as paid trolls for some group that wants Americans to keep buying and financing large homes and autos.  They are doing such a bad job of presenting the semi-cornucopian view that I have begun to wonder if they are paid by some group trying to spread the Peak Oil message (and they want to make the semi-cornucopians look really, really bad).

Hehehe thats some pretty deep double take conspiracy theory there. You never know what these guys are up to... maybe we are ALL paid?

Ps I post little and it would be great if we tried to keep the board "clean". stick to clear arguments, a few jokes, and objective comments. thanks guys.

Peak Oil is bunk....

Email me for payment instructions :)


As an aside, my business bought me a FORD Escape hybrid (adding to my wife's Prius) and I was shocked to find the windowsticker was correct. It is the 4wd version and I just pegged 32mpg!

Unlike the Prius, the numbers seem correct.

Right now my Prius is showing 54-someodd MPG.....in-town driving.... drive smoothly, stop picking up the aggro/ADHD habits of the drivers around you and you'll find you can "flow" along and get there just as quickly, and your MPG will go way up.

BTW big car show in in San Francisco at Moscone Center right now, it's only like $6 to get in, and they have the Tesla car and some electric stuff..... I thought about going today but didn't get up early enough.

Ain't it a kick in the azz....and by the way, while everyone is callin' each other paid trolls, (HOW DO you go about getting paid for this, inquiring minds want to know...!), whatever happened to all the anti-hybrid paid propaganda telling everyone that hybrids got worse gas mileage than Hummers, and would make you wife frgid, and cause crabgrass, and all that shiit...they seem to have faded away as more and more people actually drove hybrids, didn't they...

What's really gonna' be great is when the current generation of hybrids get to 100,000 miles plus....and they need the new battery, they will make "hacker dreams" for putting in the newer advanced batteries and a recharger, and we will be up to our azz in budget plug hybrids, and we can elect Felix Kramer president.....ahhh, all is going right with the world....HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

I've begun to have second thoughts about Hothgor (Freddy?) as paid trolls ... I think that's true. A paid spinmeister should do a better job than they do.

On usenet (an ancient online forum system), trolls' only goal is to get some response, whether favorable or not. They do it for the attention. The best policy is to ignore them.

With the advent of moderated and managed fora, the prevalence of trolls and spam is much reduced, but one still needs to exercise some restraint. And happy Thanksgiving, WT.


Thanks for investigating that problem. I did contact also Dr. Bakhtiari yesterday regarding his model and I have not received an answer yet. I asked him also if he could provide me with the actual values from his model instead of estimating them directly from his graph.

I doubt that Bakhtiari used the "All liquids" figures because he, as well as Campbell, knows that the "Other Liquids" category is just the fluff that is keeping the trend looking good for the IEA/EIA and the other Dr. Spin out there.


Thanks, Khebab! It's a pleasure to have actually contributed something of substance, seeing as I've never even SEEN an oil well in my life!

WT: "Hothgor's [sic] recent (flagrantly false) revelation that Texas oil fields produced at 100% of allowable up until the time Texas peaked.  His point was that I couldn't use Texas as a model for KSA (becuase he claimed that Texas produced at 100% of allowable up until peak)."

He can't be some unpaid hack (like me) sitting behind a keyboard, then, can he? See, I consider myself very well-informed about oil and gas, confident enough to direct a class of writing students to sources: yet it would NEVER OCCUR to me to make up something like what Hothgor [sic] makes up, IF it were assigned to me to take on the challenge of trolling YOUR remarks. And he does it over and over again! Who has such time?

OK, Khebab. Dr Bakhtiari wrote back:

"Mr. Bendzela,
'All Liquids' is something else for every forecaster:
you are right.
And also, correct by assuming I do not include
ethanol, biodiesel, GTL (only some 40,000 b/d so far),
CTL, refinery gains, orimulsion, and the such.
Best luck with poster, please do keep me updated.

Interesting, isn't it?

I propose that the term "all liquids" be damned to hell.

Let's talk about liquid hydrocarbons.


Mike Bendzela

Nice work.
Thanks for this. I may be really dense, but I'm still kind of confused. His graphs say oil & NGl but he states "all liquids" when writing to you? And is it that he sees 82 as close enough to 85 that it's not an issue, or was there an error? He's right on if he really means oil + NGLs.

Thanks again.

On April 4 2002, Colin Campbell published his first "all liquids table" for the Hubbert Centre Newsletter.  His figure incl processing gains was "75-mbd" for Y2K & his estimate for 2005 was 81-mbd.  His 2010 forecast was much better: 89-mbd.

His Y2K figure includes:
 64 conv oil
  4 non-conv hydrocarbons
  6 NGL
 75 (his rounded total)

Bakhtiari admits using ASPO database.  Any backtesting that he did in 2003 would  have used the IEA & ASPO figures for Y2K.  The man is a liar.

And you, Freddy Hutter, are a liar every time you say "we" and make it look like you are head of a think tank group.

I have not mentioned that you are a one man show before since I thought that your concepts and ideas should be evaluated on their merits or lack thereof.

But since you have crossed that line, so will I.

Best Hopes for civility,


"Best hopes for civility."

Not from me!

I exposed Freddy lies by sitting here in my jammies at my computer and using The Google.

He is worse than bad.

From the Archdruid's holiday greeting, "Christmas Eve 2050":
Q: Does the plant use solar cells?

A: Good lord, no--the raw materials for those hubberted years ago. No, they've got big dish mirrors and Stirling engines driving the generators. Joe Jr. could tell you more about it than I can. He wants to build them when he grows up. ...

So, what do I need to make refined silicon on my Mars colony? Silica and lots of energy and what else? What was it that "hubberted"?
A bit lower in Greer's fictional piece he discusses how this imaginary world has extended the meaning of "hubbert" to mean any resource that disappears for whatever reason.

I, too, would like to understand: if the silicon they need to make chips & PV from is in short supply... how hard can it be to set up a factory & get that stuff out to the market? Somehow has the stock market fallen asleep, or maybe finally this is the pot of gold I have been waiting for. Probably the stock market has not exactly fallen asleep, though of course it's estimate of the future will be off target .... how much and in which direction, ah, there's the question!

Anyway, the problem seems to be that the silicon needs to be very pure. So the question becomes, what equipment is required to purify silicon? Behind that: the silicon business has some scary ups and downs. So yeah, today it looks like easy money to buy a bunch of machines to purify silicon & thus make a bundle. But if the price of silicon returns to normal levels, you chould lose your shirt. If too many folks jump into the game, that will cause oversupply, and the price will surely drop. Tricky business, all this!

I had a fascinating conversation with a very smart younger fellow at lunch this week. He understands silicon-based semiconductor technology at a very deep and real world level. He's a fan of solar power, but doesn't think PV is the way to go. The problem he foresees is reliability. The high efficiency devices are too delicate to withstand being left out in the sun all day! So he says. He's a fan of solar-driven stirling engines.


Happy Turkey Day TODers! Thanks again for all the work!
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.  I hope everyone has an enjoyable
holiday.  I would like to say a special thanks to Leanan for all the
hard work of posting news items for Drumbeat everyday.  I would also like to
thank the Editors and Contributors for their outstanding presentations
that make this site one of the best energy related sites on the web!

Also, thanks to fellow TOD'ers for their opinion and commentary.
It most always makes for good reading.

Keep up the great work!  We all have a lot to be thankful for.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.  I hope everyone has an enjoyable holiday.  I would like to say a special thanks to Leanan for all the hard work of posting news items for Drumbeat everyday.

Same here.  This is a seven day a week project for Leanan.

Happy Thanksgiving to you, too!  

I am very thankful for TOD.  

And to you too!!


"In a few days we will all be getting ready to take a break from our studies and participate in the festivities of "Thanksgiving" day. Many of us will be going home to our families to devour a dinner, which could probably feed an entire village of Mayan refugee of the US/ Mexico "Low- Intensity" war in Chiapas, of turkey (or tamales), stuffing, mash potatoes, sweet potatoes, cranberry sauce, and pumpkin pie. The present holiday has been a time-honored tradition since President Abraham Lincoln institutionalized it so that it could be celebrated on the 3rd Thursday of every November. So why do we celebrate Thanksgiving? What is the history behind this most "thankful" day? The origins of Thanksgiving are varied and with close inspection are much more malignant than a big tamale (or turkey) dinner.

For many of us this "holiday" was explained for the first time in elementary school as a celebration of prosperity in the "New World". I'm sure many of you remember those cherished moments in the Kinder when the teacher would dress you up like Colonists and Indians, y yo con un nopal en el frente, would get stuck being the Pilgrim! The teachers recanted the stories of the Mayflower, Plymouth Rock, the Pilgrims and how they triumphed over the cold winter and failed crops. These colonists were to serve as examples because their "rugged individualism" set the foundation for this nation. This, unfortunately, marks the beginning of the first of many lies and half-truths taught to us in school about how this Western Empire was established. For our purposes, we must go back in time a little further to see that the origins of November twenty-fifth is in fact much older than the foundations of the Massachusetts Bay Colony, subsequently we must go to VIII century Europe.

In the 8th century the Muslims (Moors) conquer Spain, Portugal and France and controlled it for over 700 years. These people threatened European Christians, meaning: Western Civilization. It was not until the late 15th century that in Spain on November 25, 1491 Santiago defeated the last Muslim stronghold in Grenada. On this day King Ferdinand gave thanks to God for this victory and the Pope of Rome declared this day to forever be a day of Thanksgiving for all European Christians. Rass Kass in "Nature of the Threat"states that: "When you celebrate Thanksgiving, what you are actually celebrating is the proclamation of the Pope of Rome, who later in league with Queen Isabella, sent Cardinal Ximenos to Spain to murder any African that resisted Christianity." These genocidal policies were justified by Pope Nicholas in the Inter Cetera Papal Bull of 1452, which called for the King of Portugal "To invade, search out, vanquish, and subdue all Saracens and pagans, whatsoever, and other enemies of Christ". These
are the religious and political motivations that formulated the white supremacist mindset that was the foundations for the economic colonization of the Americas and its Native peoples.

Thanksgiving in the United States of Amerika is a part of this tradition that celebrates the subjugation of non-Western people for colonial purposes. Its roots are more directly connected to the events that occurred in the Northeastern United States in November of the year 1637, when 700 men, women, and children of the Pequot Tribe, gathered for their "Annual Green Corn Dance" in the area that is now known as Groton, Connecticut. While they were gathered in this place of meeting, they were surrounded and attacked by mercenaries of the English and Dutch. The Indigenous people were ordered from their ceremonial structures and as they came forth, they were shot down. The rest were burned alive in their homes. The next day, the Governor of the Massachusetts Bay Colony declared a day of Thanksgiving, thanking God that they had eliminated over 700 Pequots. Subsequently, every Thanksgiving Day ordained by a Governor or President since was to honor that victory, thanking God that the "battle" had been won. The holiday on the 3rd Thursday of November we celebrate is in observation of that massacre and upholds the colonial mentality of this nation-state.

How will you celebrate Thankstaking day? Many Native People fast on Thankstaking in remembrance of those who were murdered in the process of the Western expansion of Europe. In the Bay Area, Indigenous peoples and allies from across the continent have gathered for many years to observe the day with a sunrise ceremony, organized by the International Indian Treaty Council on Alcatraz Island. Starting at 4:30 AM, thousands of people take ferries from Fisherman's' Warf to the Rock to participate in this ceremony; this is done to remember our ancestors and to reaffirm the struggle to resist Western colonization. Alcatraz maybe a little far and for others, while missing dinner with the family is not an option. Well, let's look at what that stereotypical dinner contains: Turkey (or tamales), Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes, Corn, Cranberries (sauce), and Pumpkins (pie), are all foods that were found only in the Americas prior to 1492. Thankstaking dinner is a collection of foods indigenous to the Americas. In fact, Europe, Africa, and Asia would have had a hard time prospering without the nutrition they derived from the "New World". This Thankstaking I hope you all take time to remember our ancestors, all the contributions that our people from Alaska to the tip of Tierra del Fuego have given the world, and for nuestra voluntad to resist colonization, and for our ability to persevere with dignity- despite 508 years of Western oppression!"

Thank You for the summary of the brutal history of Thanksgiving.

Human civilization is much beloved but is also rooted in bloodshed and slavery.

My guess is that the Reource War in which we are currently engaged is simply another of the ever more globalised episodes of such bloodshed which are required by our competitive way of thinking.

My own huess is that maybe some people will survive to evolve into a culture that values cooperation and devalues unbridled competition.  This evolution seems to me to be absolutely necessary if our species is to survive, let alone thrive.

A sense of mutuality amoung all living things and between ourselves and the planet as a whole is also necessary for survival and for a thriving culture.

Your comments are well-taken, AC, and we need to ask ourselves what we learn from this history (and from larger history) and what we will do about it.

I do recomend the book "The Betrayal of the West" by Jacques Ellul as a good critique of "Western" culture.

We are all "guilty, not guilty" and evil is diffuse rather than "here and not there" or " in those evil-doers but not in us."

Peak Oil and resource wars will bring out the best and the worst in our species.

I suggest reading "Mayflower" by Nathaniel Philbrick which explains how the events surrounding the Pilgrims unfolded, the persecution that they were fleeing, and the way all the Native-American tribes were constantly trying to screw each other over.  For example, the Pokonokets allied themselves with the Pilgrims because they were trying to screw over the Narragansetts.  No one comes out blameless in the story, but actually the Pilfrims and the Pokonokets had a lasting and true friendship for a generation (until the Pokonokets get angry about the stupid decisions of their chief which leads to the tragedy of King Philip's War).
Here is some of the best:

Thanksgiving Day - 1941

''I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do hereby designate and set aside Thursday, the twentieth day of November 1941, as a day to be observed in giving thanks to the Heavenly Source of our earthly blessings.

Our beloved country is free and strong. Our moral and physical defenses against the forces of threatened aggression are mounting daily in magnitude and effectiveness.

In the interest of our own future, we are sending succor at increasing pace to those peoples abroad who are bravely defending their homes and their precious liberties against annihilation.

We have not lost our faith in the spiritual dignity of man, our proud belief in the right of all people to live out their lives in freedom and with equal treatment. The love of democracy still burns brightly in our hearts.

We are grateful to the Father of us all for the innumerable daily manifestations of His beneficent mercy in affairs both public and private, for the bounties of the harvest, for opportunities to labor and to serve, and for the continuation of those homely joys and satisfactions which enrich our lives.

Let us ask the Divine Blessing on our decision and determination to protect our way of life against the forces of evil and slavery which seek in these days to encompass us.

On the day appointed for this purpose, let us reflect at our homes or places of worship on the goodness of God and, in giving thanks, let us ray for a speedy end to strife and the establishment on earth of freedom, brotherhood, and justice for enduring time. ''

"The teachers recanted the stories of the Mayflower, Plymouth Rock, the Pilgrims and how they triumphed over the cold winter and failed crops."

Best. Slip-of-the-tongue. Ever.


That's why I celebrate Thanksgiving as a long day of football.  

Well, it's half time, and Romo is a stud! The Cowboys are headed to the playoffs, and I like their chances once they get there.
I remember Tony Romo when he was at E. Illinois, because they played Hawai`i.  He was really good.  But E. Illinois is Division IAA, so Hawai`i kicked their butts.  There was a lot of bad feeling because E. Illinois played dirty, even taking out a Hawai`i lineman for the whole year blocking from the back. Hawai`i swore they would never play E. Illinois again, but they couldn't find anyone else this year, so they played them again.  And kicked their butts again.

Hawai`i plays Purdue this weekend, and the Purdue coach is griping about the long trip.  I suspect the Hawai`i football program is going to suffer from peak oil.

AC - Your post is much off topic.
Master of the Obvious
There's a nice little write-up on Thanksgiving on the Craigs List forums right now too ..... Washington wanted one national day, instead of the days-long celebration feasts after the massecre of each new Indian settlement.......
As am I.  Thank you, Leanan, for all you do to make The Oil Drum the best educational forum on the WWW.  There is no equal.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you!

I'll lavish praise on Leanan too. Amazing job on the open threads, both with the news aggregating and the editing. She has a lot more patience than I do - I'm a brutal editor on another site, banning users with impunity. It takes a lot of effort to be fair.
It was one year ago today that I was first directed to this
site and I wanted to thank the personnel for providing it
to us. I am 71 years old and have led an eventful life, but
nothing has had the impact on me like the realization of
the impact peak oil will have on our lives. I was concerned
when the  "Limits To Growth", "Overshoot" and other such
books were first published but found even fewer people
interested at that time.
Leanan, we are impressed with your presence and prescience
in these forums. I am a former resident of Hawaii and agree
with your assessments of it post peak. Thanks again to all of you.
I second that!
Is it possible to insert a chart from Excel in an Oil Drum post? If so, can anyone tell me how?


Ron Patterson

I don't think it's possible, and you probably wouldn't want to allow it anyway (security issues).

You can post a link so people can download it (though they won't be able to open it unless they have Excel).

Or you could turn it into a graphic, and post that.

Okay, what kind of charting program would I need? I used to see Stuart post charts all the time so I know it can be done. Excel's charts are pretty bad but they are all I have right now. But I would be willing to invest in something better.

Recommendations anyone?

Ron Patterson

I think Stuart said he uses Mathematica.  Which is mucho expensive.  Like, $2,000.  

A lot of others here just use Excel, though.

Stuart uses Mac.  I know because in Boston he had trouble with colors in the transisition to PC for the Boston conference.

I have a friend who is an uber Apple expert (one of 5 outside consultants hired by Apple for help in conceptual designs) and he may have some siggestions.  Or Stuart :-)

best Hopes,


"You can post a link so people can download it (though they won't be able to open it unless they have Excel)."

There's an option for people who don't have Excel, which is free, and can open and save in Excel format...


Some have posted the answer to that here before.  Trying something like what I remembered, this worked for me:
  • create chart in Excel
  • select chart
  • right click and click "copy"
  • open Powerpoint, hit "paste"
  • right click on chart and click "save as image"
  • choose "save as file of type" PNG (for example, could also be GIF or JPG but I would recommend PNG)

There may be other ways, e.g. "save as HTML" from Excel may also create an image file.

The resulting image file then needs to be uploaded somewhere on the web, and a link to it embedded into your posting on TOD.  I don't know how to get permission to upload it to the TOD site, but it works fine if you upload it elsewhere if you have web space available to you.

Happy T-day y'all, and keep in mind that this day last year was (according to Deffeyes) PO-day.  Honor the other peoples and cultures of the world, including those tragically destroyed by "western civilization".   As the latter comes to a close, we need to learn humility.

You can also....

-Have the chart open
-Press the "Print Screen/SysRq" button on your keyboard (usually on the top row above insert)
-Open to your favorite image manipulation program and do Edit > Paste
-Trim the stuff you don't want and save it (preferably as a jpeg at a pretty good compression)

  1. Select the chart
  2. Click File->Save as Web Page
  3. Save the chart in the location where you want it.
  4. There will be an .htm file and an associated folder saved. Open the folder. In there you'll find a .gif of your chart.
  5. Post the .gif to TOD.
Is it possible to insert a chart from Excel in an Oil Drum post? If so, can anyone tell me how?
A good tool (free) is EditGrid that combines spreadsheet, charting and permalink capabilities.

Here is an example from my spreadsheet:

Interesting.  Is it a Web-based app, or a program you can download and use offline?
It's a web 3.0 application that enables you to work on a spreadsheet online (more details here).
Thanks!  I did find that page, which is why I asked if it was a Web-based app.  I couldn't find a download link.  :D
(Re the New World article and posts on another thread)

I wanted to get a rough handle on per capita oil use as quickly as poss. The numbers used come from Nation Master (problems of definition?, etc.)  Mistakes, shoddy or dated data, calc. errors may exist.. I have no intuitive feel arising from expert knowledge, anyway:

Oil use:  The champions are the Virgin Islands, who consume almost one barrel per day per person. The island effect, I figured  - almost everything is imported, including oil itself, and over long distances. Others in similar positions with extremely extravagant or just high use (even if they consume far less than the V islands) are Gibraltar, the Netherlands Antilles, Faroe Islands, Aruba, the Bahamas, etc.

Setting all such aside and considering only larger countries, the MEGA consumers, expressed in barrels used by 10 people per day, are:  

Singapore (1.5) Kuwait (1.3), UAE (1.2), and Luxemburg (1.1)

Next, the BIG consumers: a group of countries consume .6x (note the considerable gap viz. the MEGA consumers):

Greenland, the US, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Belgium.

Next, very close by, we find Iceland (island and cold), the Netherlands, Norway, Puerto Rico, all between .55 and .6

Then, again, a gap:  consuming between .45 and .4:

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Israel, Finland, Lybia, Greece.

The high 3's (quite a bit more than a third of a barrel per 10 people per day) are Spain, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Qatar, and Bharain.

Follow the remaining countries of old Europe in the low .3's, with the exception of the UK, lower, at  .28.

Next down, we find Lebanon at .27.

Iran, Venezuela, Malaysia, Oman, Russia and some ex-USSR/new Europe/'stans (Z, see note) countries clock in the low .2's.

These are followed by Cuba, Mexico, other Z countries in the high .1's.

Then -->  in the low .1's Chile, Ecuador, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, a few more Zs, Guyana, Thailand, South Africa, Syria, Iraq and Turkey.  

Amongst the remaining countries, we may note:

Egypt, Serbia+Montenegro, Algeria: .07

Bolivia: .05

China, Uzbekistan: .04

Vietnam, Pakistan, India, Nigeria, Senegal and Venezuela: at or very close to .02

Bangladesh: .006

Afghanistan:  .002

Congo: .001 (the last)

As world production (2000) stands at roughly 3 barrels of oil or a bit more per capita per year (?), the ones using around their fair share or a bit more are in the low .1's, or below, i.e, e.g. Chile, Ecuador, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, some Zs, Guyana, Thailand,  South Africa, Syria, Iraq and Turkey.  

note: Z = ex-USSR and floating (new or not yet EU members) are numerous vary greatly in oil use, so I did not sort them all out.


Peak oil, like so many other things, means different things to different people...

As world production (2000) stands at roughly 3 barrels of oil or a bit more per capita per year (?),

Well, we have population figures and oil production figures for 2006, so there is no need to use figures six years old. According to my figures, latest world per capita consumption of oil, all liquids, stands at 4.66 barrels per year. For crude + condensate the number is 4.1 barrels per year.

Ron Patterson

Iceland - Over half of their oil use goes for their fishing trawlers (INCREDIABLE conditions !).  Fish used to be 90% of their exports but with economic diversification (aluminum, software, deCode genetics, music, children's Tv shows (Lazy Town), midAtlantic air traffic control, air freight) fish are now only 60+% of their exports.

Unlike other Atlantic fisheries, Iceland is managing their's sustainably.  They had to go to war with the Royal Navy twice for the right to do so, but it was essential to national survival.

Best Hopes for whale meat (minke whales who eat fish) on my next trip,


Nationmaster is a terrific resource. I was interested to compare energy use with living standards. Is it possible to maintain a decent quality of life with low per capita energy consumption? Which nations are leading by that measure?

Here's a scatterplot of primary energy consumption per capita vs. the Human Development Index (a combination of life expectancy, literacy, education, and GDP-based standards of living).

I tend to give the HDI axis a bit more weight. The best performer, then, is Portugal. Argentina and Chile are close with lower energy consumption but also lower HDI.

Following those is a tight group of developed nations with higher per capita energy consumption and higher HDI: Greece, Italy, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, UK, Switzerland, Japan and Germany.

In the category of very low per capita energy consumption, Columbia, Peru, Ecuador and Philippines rate the best. Brazil and Mexico also do well.

Switzerland can function resonably well without any oik, using the energy of their own hydroelectric and nuclear plants.

In all of 1945 they used ~28,000 tonnes of oil & oil products.

Today, they are working on the 2000-2020 TransAlp project. 31 billion Swiss francs (adjust for population & currency and = to US spending $1 trillion) that will, among other effects, get heavy trucks off Swiss roads and onto their railroads.

So instead of energy, perhaps nonrenewable energy use ?  With a special note for non-GHG nuclear energy use.

Best Hopes,


Great question! It's essentially asking, "Is it possible to maintain a decent quality of life with low per capita fossil fuel consumption?" One way to measure that is by CO2 emissions per capita.

This chart shows the comparison between CO2 emissions per capita and the Human Development Index. Uruguay and Costa Rica are the best performers. The other top performing countries can be approximately classified into tiers:

High (6-7 tons) emissions: Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Portugal.

Medium (2-4 tons) emissions: Argentina, Lithuania, Chile, Latvia, Cuba, Panama, Brazil.

Low (0-2 tons) emissions: Sri Lanka, Paraguay, Philippines, Peru, Armenia, Albania, Columbia.

All figures are for 2003, so this is a snapshot of a single year. A better chart would show averages of, say, a recent 5-year period.

The small island nations were left out for the sake of simplicity. The United States, of course, is at the extreme far end of the chart with 20 tons CO2 per person. I put all this into a blog post.

An possible answer to the high usage of the Virgin Islands usage of oil is that there is a very large oil reifnery there.  I think it is owned by Ameranda and it uses Maricaibo crude as feed stock, a very heavy oil.  Probably Trinidad also shows a large usage for the same reason.
I got curious as to how much each US state uses in barrles il/per capita  and found it here:


Alaska is tops with about 77 barrles per person per year or 1/5 barrel per day or ca. 8 gallon per day per person.

Average in USA is 23 barrrels/year per person or 2 2/3 gallons per day.

Coming originally from Alaska and still having family there I hav been worried just how sustainable life is there for them when things get harder. Obviously my intuition was right as everything is imported a very long distance and heating is very expensive and very necessary in 30-40 below zero for example. Maybe a return to burning wood and planting a garden and fishing and hunting and for softies mass emigration back to "the lower 48" or "outside" as it is commonly referred to there.

I wonder if Wyoming's high oil use is for the coal mining industry. It's not necessarily for winter heating because Idaho consumes about one-third as much oil.
From a link above...

 The operators, at the Watts Bar Nuclear Plant, owned by the Tennessee Valley Authority, decided around 6:15 a.m. that instruments indicated a possible leak and declared an "unusual event," the lowest of four categories of plant problems. They canceled the notification at 7:35 a.m., but by then the children were boarding buses to go home.

The school district is in Meigs County, about halfway between Knoxville and Chattanooga.

A T.V.A. spokesman, Gil Francis, said: "Declaration of an unusual event does not require an evacuation. They don't go hand in hand."

There have been 20 unusual events around the country this year, according to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. One element of the definition is that it does not pose a risk to people off-site or in the plant.

You see...you only have to start worrying a little at "Strange" but by "Totally Friken Bizarre" you'd better kiss your butt goodbye.

Ignorance of the context of the event is no excuse if you are going to study the event in question. What occurred was an "event" during a simulation exercise not in actual operation of the plant. Go research this for yourself. And yes, the NRC insists on being told when such errors are made during practice too, for good reason. But the truth is that there was no danger ever from this. The public reaction was erroneous and based on the assumption that the event was real, not part of an exercise.

And if you want further verification, here is another link that confirms this was an exercise, not a real event.

Now what was your (manufactured) point anyway? Or did you simply want to use this as an anti-nuclear bully pulpit?

I just thought the terminology was funny.  Slightly euphamistic, of course.  Rather than a "minor problem" they have an "event" which is "unusual."  When the core is melting through the containment vessel it's probably a "strange occurence."

But seriously, I'm sure there are ways to do nuclear safe...but look around you.  See the dynamics at play.  The people that are going to be making the decisions on building these aren't the engineers, it's going to be the bean counters and the empty suits that know less than nothing.  $$$$.  Even some of the theoretical designs have "events" that occur 1 in every million years of operation...which sounds like a lot, until you build half a million plants.  Then things start catching up...throw in faulty this and sub-par that because the good $hit "cost too much" and you've got problems.  I saw a report a number of years back on a threat assessment in transporting spent fuel to long term storage in Yucca.  The gist was that no matter what they did, they were almost assured of having one major accident on route which would cause a spill sufficient that a 50 mile radius would be contaminated.  If that 50 mile radius happened to be in Nashville or some other city, they'd be screwed.  And even if engineers did have say over all aspects of building, they're still human, and could still "woops."  It's a high cost of failure.

One thing to remember about the public reaction to this is that in this part of the world almost any excuse to call off school will serve. The weatherman can predict the 'possibility' of snow flurries and school will be cancelled for the next day.
Possibility of flurries also means "OMG Run out and quick and buy out the entire grocery store!"  :)

Happy Thanksgiving  One thing I'd noticed, reading history books, old menus, and such...in the old days, pie (apple, shoofly, etc.) was eaten for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.  It wasn't just dessert.  I never knew why, but Martha Stewart, of all people, has the answer.  The Thanksgiving issue of her magazine has a special pie section, which explains that in the old days, pies were eaten at every meal because they were cheaper.  They used less flour than bread did, and flour was expensive.  

Also, pies are an excellent way of preserving foods. Once cooked, they last a long time. And once you get the hang of making crusts, they are atonishingly simple recipes.

Things like apples and squash (pumpkin) keep a long time in pantries and cellars, too. If your larder is full, you never run out of fillings for pies.

Good points.  I find it hard to wrap my brain around how difficult food storage was in the days before fossil fuels.  Even canning, which we think of as old-fashioned, is a fairly recent invention.  It takes a lot of energy, not just to sterilize the jars and the food, but to manufacture the glass jars and such.  Glass has been made for thousands of years, but for most of that time it was a luxury good, because of the amount of energy it took to make it.  Glass was so expensive they used to remove the glass windows from the castle when the lord was away.  
Yep and you make that crust with any old fat, just pack it full, and with the filling makes a tasty, good source of vitamins from the fruit and will stay with you a while because of the fat in the crust.

I guess in a way pie was white people's pemmican.

Glass is getting expensive again. I noticed last week that all my new IKEA drinking glasses are "Made in Russia". A few seconds of wondering gave me obvious answer - it's the gas dummy. Apparently making gas very cheap requires going as close to a source of artificially low priced fuel to manufacture it... I love pie and I've always wondered why my grandmother made them so well...
oops... "making gas very cheap" = "making GLASS very cheap"
and as homer simpson would say "  ummmmm.......   p  i  e "
Thank You, Thank You, Thank You!

In spite of my doomerosity, I am still grateful for all the good stuff in life.

I'm especially thankful for all the good work that TODers put into thoughtful posts and comments, and (as has been mentioned above) for Leanan's wonderful work doing the daily Drumbeat research!

Thank You, again!

I posted something to yesterday's drumbeat about attitudes and how we get them.  To me it was on-topic for the meta-discussion of how we view and respond to peak oil.  It is all about predictions and our future.

I think we've seen here that this is very attitude-laden stuff.

Peak Oil itself is a prediction at one level, future societal responses to peak oil are often predicted .. at various levels.  To really be useful we have to both understand our predictions and take some stab at the confidence (or assessed odds) that we give that prediction.

I can think of a few rules of thumb:

  • Shorter term predictions can be made with higher confidence than longer term predictions.  It's easier to guess tomorrow's gas price (or production) than next year's, and next year's is easier than next decade's.

  • Simpler systems are easier to predict than more complex systems.  The single vs. double pendulum demonstrates that pretty handily.  Another example might be the confidence we can give for an established oil field's production, and the production of one "undiscovered."

  • Physical systems are easier to predict than those elements have volition.  We can knock a acorn out of a tree and make a fair guess where it will land.  Knock an eagle out and ...

  • Nested systems, that get longer in term, with more complex connections, and more conscious actors, are the hardest of all.

  • Don't trust people with funny beards.  Ok.  I don't have a real grounding on this one ... but my dad taught it to me, and it seems to work.

In total, I think that might give you an idea why I can have higher confidence in Hubber-syle models for near-term peak (simpler, shorter term, less time for social change) and less in the very far ones (more complex, longer term, and with plenty of time for societies to shift course).

This is gut stuff, but I think that's all we have to work with.  Or to put a concrete example on it, I think I can predict tomorrow's gas price +/- 25 cents, at 95% accuracy (just use today's price).  I don't think I can hit next year's price with the same accuracy ... and I certainly don't think I can put a probability on us having cars 50 years from now.

Happy Thanksgiving all

On the Putin story.  I posted here my thoughts on what's going on.  Distilled;

The decision has been made it will not be made public until it can be buried close to New Year.

It has to have been made GAZP will invest a huge fortune to develop Shtockman et al over the next decade.  Too many of the  Putinites have their personal fortunes tied to GAZP for it to invest cash too unwisely.

There is still a monumental amount of decision making to be done to devise a real Russian energy policy.

If you can get your hands on UBS Energy reserch then be prepared to worry a lot about gas supplies to Europe.

I'd like to give thanks to everyone on the TOD sidebar.  Those that work very hard for very little in return.  They show the true spirit of giving. They also put up with a lot of crap from all of us (when we highjack the threads) and remain cool at all times.

Please be thankful for each and every one of these guys and gal.  


Prof. Goose
Heading Out
Stuart Staniford

DrumBeat Editor

Senior Contributors
Dave Cohen
Robert Rapier

Nate Hagens

Super G

Editor Emeritus

I didn't see westexas' name on the sidebar, but I would also like to include him in my thanks as well as a myriad of others that contribute regularly to the community of TOD.
I also thank TOD and, especially westexas. You all have made more impact on my life than probably any other individual that reads TOD.

I have:

  1. Moved to Missouri from Las Vegas(Kunstler helped also!!).
  2. Changed careers from auto mechanic (discretionary) to maintenance department at a meat packing plant (essential goods).
  3. Changed commute from 12 miles - FIFTY minutes(Vegas) to 1.8 miles directly on a city bus line (I still drive).
  4. Moved from +-2500 sq ft(Vegas) to 844 sq ft (family of 3) - I still rent.
  5. I pledge NO MORE DEBT - although I added about 3k in credit card debt for the downsize/move. Jury still out on weather to buy house nearby when 1 yr lease up.
  6. 12 mos. and going strong on NO cable TV.

Without the debate on TOD, I would not be here. LATOC was not enough, although LATOC got me started. I am very grateful for my new outlook on life and I apologize for some of my quite "doomer" posts, the time without a job was quite stressful.

Thanks again westexas, your advice is perfect - no matter what happens in the coming times.

Re:  Richlev

Thanks for the kind words.

In any case, as I said, if I am wrong, you will have less debt, a lower stress way of life and more money in the bank.

Hi Richlev,

 Just a note to add my support for your move, and esp. for the TV-free (or is it "cable-free"?) change.  I wish you and your family much happiness. If you'd like some suggestions for community organizing, I've discovered "CERT" is a program anyone in any community can start.  http://www.ashland.or.us/Page.asp?NavID=541.  It's a way to organize the community, based on emergency preparedness, which everyone can get behind. It's a start.  There's funding available.

Found 1000 bucks for the CERA report too much? Here is a report that costs six times as much, rating the MOST SUSTAINABLE AND ETHICAL OIL COMPANIES 2006
Re:  Pemex's Projected 14% Decline Rate for Cantarell

I posted a note on this yesterday, which seems to have vanished into the ether.  

My suggestion was that the CEO of Pemex is smoking some pretty good stuff.  

The WSJ article, based on a leaked internal Pemex report, earlier this year on Cantarell indicated that the remaining oil column was about 800' thick, and it was thinning at about 300' per year.  The worst case decline rate, out of five scenarios, was for a 40% per year decline, which may be pretty realistic when you do the math on the oil column.  

One of my theories is that you can discern the truth about Peak Oil by simply assuming the opposite of what (most) politicians, CEO's and energy analysts (CERA) are saying.  So, to get the true decline rate for Cantarell, you just transpose the 14% to get 41%.

Earlier this year, I pointed out that the rapidly thinning oil columns at both Cantarell and Ghawar are between rising water legs and expanding gas caps.  It is very, very easy for the water and gas to bypass the oil in these two reservoirs. The harder that Pemex and Saudi Aramco push these two fields--which account, or accounted, for 10% of world crude + condensate production--the lower the remaining recoveries will be.

Pemex has reported that they are only shutting in wells at Cantarell for two reasons:  (1)  the water cut is too high or (2)  the gas production rate is too high.  Other than those two little problems, they have no production problems to speak of.

And yet those two "little" problems are the exact symptoms of water or gas bypassing the oil.

Yes, yes, everything is fine here. These are not the oil peaks you are looking for. Move along! Move along!

Perhaps OT, Perhaps nOT.

Just walked back feom the New Orleans Convention Center,  The Orleans Parsih Sheriiff has a 32 year old tradition of serving Thanksgiving dinner for those that had no where else to go for a traditional T-Day dinner.  Last year, the returnees were few in number and resources scarce (I was away with family).  This year promised to be much bigger (hard to do a proper Thanksgiving in a FEMA trailer, or living in a tent inside your gutted home).

So I walked the mile to the Convention Center and enjoyed the dinner and company.  Everyone was friendly and open, a real mix of people :-)  Some good talking and laughing with strangers.   The food did not represent "the finest of our culinary traditions" although the turkey and gravy was good.  OTOH, the music did :-)  Several local bands played for 3 hours.

Getting up and second lining or just dancing is a nice addition to the traditions of Thanksgiving dinner :-))

Happy Thanksgiving to All !


With GW soon our Canadian Thanksgiving can coencide with your later harvest.  But enjoy!
Is below an example of a bad headline or what?
I have read this several times and it seems shipments are down not up????
And this from the same news feed ...

Pass the gravy please!
I am not interested in alternative gravy.

Tertzakian apparently does not "align himself with peak oil theory" but it seems to me he has signed on as a fellow traveller ... anyone here paying him under the table?
http://www.mywesttexas.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17505090&BRD=2288&PAG=461&dept_id=474107 &rfi=6
----- Original Message -----
From: Whiskey & Gunpowder
To: bpayne37@comcast.net
Sent: Wednesday, November 22, 2006 12:02 PM
Subject: Peak Oil & Gas, Energy Cornucopia, and Reality, Part II

Whiskey & Gunpowder
November 22, 2006 by Dan Amoss
York, U.S.A.

Peak Oil & Gas, Energy Cornucopia, and Reality, Part II

In Part I of this article, I commented on an October press release from CERA. More specifically, I explained why you should take CERA's long-term oil and gas supply forecasts with a grain of salt. My colleague Byron King wrote about how CERA declined the invitation to send a representative to last month's ASPO-USA conference.

The conference welcomed presenters from a wide range of backgrounds, and CERA certainly would have added to the discussion by presenting its case. Nevertheless, there was plenty of intellectual firepower to analyze how the world is dealing with the challenges posed by depletion of oil and natural gas. Among the experts was Dave Hughes, a very qualified professional who informed the audience about his research on both natural gas and Canadian tar sands (or "oil sands").


I thought this was a very interesting look at the environment in China. Kunming does NOT border Thailand, though.

The Rising Dragon's Environmental Disaster      
Jasper Becker    
22 November 2006  
This is a chapter reprinted by arrangement with the National Geographic Society from the book Dragon Rising: An Inside Look at China Today By Jasper Becker.


Hello TODers,

Do You Remember a TODer posting from nearly seven months ago about the mud volcano in Java?  Well it is still spouting off uncontrollably and is now responsible for additional deaths, injuries, and now electrical blackouts to the tune of 1,030 Megawatts nearly nationwide!  One victim suffered burns to nearly 80 percent of his body after being thrown into the hot mud from the explosion!

Java, including the national capital, Jakarta, will have partial power outages after a gas pipeline exploded and cut supplies to a power plant in East Java, state-owned power firm PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) says.

Available electricity supply in the Java-Bali grid may suffer a shortfall of 1,030 megawatts, about 7 percent of estimated demand, during peak hours of between 5 p.m and 10 p.m, Mulyo Adji, PLN's supply and control general manager, told Bloomberg

At least eight people were killed and 15 injured when a natural gas pipeline owned by state oil firm PT Pertamina blew up after being ruptured by pressure from a mud dam.

A mud-volcano blowout seven months ago at the Lapindo Brantas gas well in Sidoarjo, East Java, caused hot, toxic mud to inundate houses, schools, factories and roads.

The ruptured pipeline runs under a dam built to prevent the mud from inundating nearby villages.
Who is the idiot that ordered a dam be built on top of a natgas pipeline--was he the same idiot that ignored the advice of experts?  Glad to see that the geologists tried to warn them according to this link:
Rescuers continued to search for up to a dozen missing people at the Sidoarjo mudflow disaster Thursday, a day after a gas pipeline exploded, killing at least seven people and shooting flames hundreds of meters into the air.

The powerful blast occurred at 8:30 p.m. Wednesday after an embankment built to contain the hot mud burst, sweeping four cars away and closing the main Porong toll road. Between four and 12 people are believed to be still missing.

The search was hindered by the hot mud and the risk of toxic gas after the explosion. The temperature of the mud was so high it could melt rubber shoes, Mohammad said.

Edi Sunardi, from the Indonesian Association of Geologists, told AFP experts had warned about continuing to operate the gas pipeline in a disaster area.

The mudflow caused land subsidence, which put pressure on the 70 cm [27.5 inch] gas pipe, Sunardi said.

"It (the subsidence) exerts pressure on the pipe and at one point, when the pressure is too much to bear, the pipe will break, the high-pressure gas will leak out and explode on contact with air.

"We have already warned about the potential of such incidents, since quite early after the 'mud volcano' developed. But it seems the warning has fallen on deaf ears," Sunardi said.

The land around the gas well has sunk up to five meters [16.4 feet] so far, officials said.

Do You Remember the Javanese earthquake & tsunami that occurred much later after the Boxer Day tsunami on July 20, 2006?
The southern coast of the Indonesian island of Java was hit by a two-metre high tsunami at about 4:15 pm local time last Monday. Despite receiving timely international warnings, Indonesian government ministries and agencies issued no warnings to the threatened areas.

As of midday Wednesday, 525 people have been confirmed dead in the latest disaster, with hundreds missing and more than 500 injured. More than 50,000 people were forced to flee their homes as the waves devastated coastal villages, flattening the homes of fisherman, tourist hotels and guesthouses and other buildings. Destruction extended inland for nearly a kilometre.

According to an AP report, Indonesian science and technology minister Kusmayanto Kadiman admitted that officials received this warning, as well as one sent by the Japanese Meteorological Agency, but "we did not announce them" because they did not want to cause unnecessary alarm. "If it (the tsunami) did not occur, what would have happened?" he said.

What is clear is that no arrangements were in place for warning people in the areas at risk.

By any standards the response of the Indonesian authorities to the disastrous events of last Monday borders on the criminal. That these officials have had over a year and a half to act on the lessons of the Boxing Day catastrophe compounds their culpability a thousand fold.

Indonesian peoples welfare minister Aburizal Bakrie claims that the government is working on establishing its own tsunami warning system by 2009. But of the 22 warning buoys this system requires, only two were set up opposite Sumatra. An Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) radio report on Wednesday revealed that neither of these was functioning--one had been damaged and the other was in a warehouse, awaiting repair.

Research and Technology Ministry official Edi Prihantoro told the ABC that no funding had been pledged for the remaining 20 buoys.

Well, guess what TODers, the powerful Indonesian Peoples Welfare Minister, who is pledged with responsibly protecting his citizens is the idiot behind all these disasters.  From this Washington Post link:
More than 10,000 people have been displaced so far by the mud, gushing at a rate of 50,000 cubic meters (1.75 million cubic feet) a day from the well.

The Banjar Panji well was operated by Indonesia's Lapindo Brantas, a unit of PT Energi Mega Persada, partly owned by the Bakrie Group, which is controlled by the family of Indonesia's chief social welfare minister Aburizal Bakrie.

The firm has denied the mud flow is directly linked to the drilling operation.

He just accepted an award for his recognition of following "The Scouts' principle of showing love and respect to people...be compassionate and help others...at all times."

From this link:
The meeting between President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and US President George W. Bush resulted in an agreement of additional aid for Indonesia as well as cooperation in various sectors.

As for the newest aid on health and corruption eradication, America has promised to disburse US$55 million, or around Rp500 billion.

The US $20 million in anti-corruption funds will be utilized for: training judges; training for supervising officials' wealth; and publicizing verdicts of the Supreme Court.

According to Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie, total US aid for both sectors will be US$395.4 million.

"The most important thing is that there must be clear accountability however much the aid is," he said.

Finally, this last article called Bakrie Ignores Bapepam's Ban:
PT Energi Mega Persada will continue selling Lapindo Brantas Inc to the Freehold Group Limited although the Capital Market Supervisory Agency [Bapepam] has banned the divestment. PT Energi is a mining company which affiliates with Bakrie.

Nirwan [Aburizal Bakrie's younger brother] said that, based on Presidential Decree Number 13/2006 on the National team for Handling the Mudflow in Sidoarjo, it was Lapindo that was to be responsible for the incident. The funds until the Presidential decree ends on 7 March 2007 will be US$150 million or Rp1.365 trillion. In addition, the Bakrie Group has prepared Rp1-2 trillion to rebuild Sidoarjo. "The funds will be prepared by the Bakrie Group, taken from our non-public companies," he said.

Head of Bapepam Fuad Rahmany yesterday (11/23) has affirmed that the selling of Lapindo will still be banned. "We have the same attitude as yesterday," he said.

Coordinating Minister for the Economy Aburizal Bakrie, Nirwan's big brother, stated he was ready to face Bapepam legally. "We'll see later who will be the right party before the law," he said.

=Only potentially $151 million in damages for a mud volcano that may erupt for years causing even more deaths, blackouts, and ecological devastation?  From one of the richest and most powerfully political families in Indonesia?

* You're doing a heck of a job, Mud-Brownie!!!*

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Hello TODers,

Will it be the tiny soil microbes that do us in?  This is some interesting research going on in Antarctica:
In Antarctica's Dry Valleys, worms offer clues to alarming changes in ecosystem

In soil, turnover works this way: molecules containing carbon provide fuel for organisms to grow; as the organisms die and decay, the carbon is released back into the soil in the form of nutrients. Eventually, it is exhaled out of the soil by the respiration of microbes and soil invertebrates.

"The cycling of carbon is the basis of life," said Ed Ayres, a postdoctoral researcher working with Wall.

Scientists know little about how these soil organisms function. But by digging around in what some might consider just plain dirt, the researchers are finding that one very small worm is playing a critical role in the Dry Valleys ecosystem and that its survival may be in jeopardy.

Because so little research has been done, scientists have no way of knowing whether similar disturbances are taking place worldwide.

Scientists know that on a global scale, the amount of carbon dioxide released by soil invertebrates and microbes is greater than 10 times the annual carbon emissions from fossil fuels. The oceans and forests perform crucial roles as carbon "sinks," drawing in carbon that would otherwise linger in the atmosphere.

Yet soils hold more carbon than trees and the atmosphere combined.

Along with James Heath, a plant physiologist at Lancaster University in Britain, Wall's colleague Ayres reported last year in the journal Science that heightened levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hindered the soil's ability to store carbon and led to increased levels of soil respiration by microbes.

Don't you just love learning about the incredible arsenal that Mother Nature has at her disposal?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Hello TODers,

I have been predicting & posting on the problems in Zimbabwe for over three years now--so sad to see them coming true.

Archbishop Ncube in London to highlight Zimbabwe catastrophe:
Outspoken Catholic Archbishop Pius Ncube of Bulawayo in Zimbabwe, who is meeting religious and political leaders in London, says that the humanitarian situation in his country is critical - and is largely being overlooked by the world as it focusses on other more visible crises.

Each week an estimated 3,500 Zimbabweans die from a unique convergence of malnutrition, poverty and AIDS, reports Independent Catholic News. The figure suggests that far away from the media spotlight, more people die in Zimbabwe each week than in Darfur.

World Health Organisation figures released earlier this year place life expectancy in Zimbabwe at just 34 years for women and 37 years for men. This is the lowest in the world. In comparison, life expectancy in Iraq for men is 51 and for women it is 61 - in spite of the terrible conflict.

Archbishop Ncube declared: "Zimbabwe is not a nation at war. It used to be able to feed itself and its neighbours. Zimbabwe used to have one of the highest life expectancy rates in Africa, up with South Africa."

He continued: "Now hunger, illness and desperation stalk our land. Cemeteries are filling up throughout the country. But no blood is being spilt. People are just fading away, dying quietly and being buried quietly with no fanfare - and so there is little international media attention."

"These deaths are largely preventable yet without significant intervention, the situation threatens to develop into a humanitarian crisis of biblical proportions. The UN has recently warned that 6.1 million Zimbabweans now face starvation," said the archbishop.*
Just imagine when PO + GW really kicks into gear--this death tally will seem like the good ole days.  How long would America last if most youngsters were dead in their thirties?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Russia has begun deliveries of the Tor-M1 air defence rocket system, according to ITAR-TASS who quoted an unnamed, high ranking source.

This was from the afx news feed.

To whom?


I think that would be Iran?
BTW...for those that haven't checked out the markets this morning...the USD ain't doing so hot right now...energy commodities and gold on the rise...DOW down...Black Friday is definitely black this morning.

Let's see if shoppers can pull us out today.  It sickens me to think this is what our entire economy pins its hopes upon.

But remember - NO news is bad news for the market right now!
Market may open down - but I bet it ends the day on the plus side.
Whatever forces are at work now will not allow much, if any downside.