DrumBeat II: October 20, 2006
Posted by Prof. Goose on October 20, 2006 - 6:23pm
Two reads for you tonight, the first, since we are a blog, and the internet remaining free is rather important for our continuing to make an impact, I bring you David Isenberg discussing Bill Moyers' latest over at WorldChanging...the second I bring you is Tom Friedman's talk from Pop!Tech.
What he's doing is giving a talk titled, "Why this is not your parents' energy crisis." His first reason: the war on terror is fueled by our energy purchases, on both sides of the equation. He gives the example of two stories he saw emerging at the same time in the New York Times: a refusal to expand CAFE fuel standards, and the refusal to cut American agricultural subsidies. He tells a story to tie the two together...
IRAN: U.S. MULLING MILITARY STRIKE, EXPERTS SAY
http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level_English.php?cat=Security&loid=8.0.351648122&par=
Rumors about a possible American intervention in Iran have been intensifying after the US government deployed a naval strike group to the Straits of Hormuz, off the Iranian coast. The war ships - which include the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier U.S.S. Eisenhower, a cruiser, a destroyer, a frigate, a submarine and a supply ship - are scheduled to arrive in the Straits on Saturday.
The mission of the strike group is not known, but according to reports in the Iranian press, the war ships have been sent to the Gulf to launch a military attack against Teheran.
Parsi said he has no specific knowledge of the operation, but added he wouldn't be surprised if the Bush administration had taken actual steps towards a military strike.
I guess it's a win-win for Russia, SA, Exxon, UAE, Venezuela, etc., though.
Keep following that boat, DragonFly41.
Do you think Ipecac is Dragonfly? Ipecac is new, granted, and there is something vaguely similar to (actually) several other previous posters. Though, I don't feel Dragonfly is one of them. But who knows.
I definitely get the feel VI has been here before, knows what he is doing, and has changed his name.
Only Super G would know.
I of course won't get into the Iran thing at this point. I've spent way too much time, as have others, debunking this stuff in the past.
Iran ain't going to happen is how I'll sum it up. Or at least not this year and definitely not before the election. How ridiculous.
I like his name though. Makes you want to puke. Rock on, VI.
By the way, It's about time the Angry Chimpster stopped by for a chat. Some of us seriously miss you, brother. Maybe you could teach BrianT a thing or two.
It's just that this USS Eisenhower thing has given him a consitancy-of-message he never had before.
He'll probably drop in and confess sometime tomorrow morning. He gets up early to re-arrange his furniture.
One man's spoon is another man's aircraft carrier.
Bush is stirring the pot.
I've got a couple of other names in mind. I'll try to remember them. You forget, I've been around a little longer.
I'm just glad Kevembuangga's gone. Maybe I spoke too soon. Plenty of people wish I was gone. Soon. Soon.
The Iran stuff ususally comes from MUDLOGGER. At least he's the only one can put it together coherently. AlistairC does OK, too.
This is still a mystery to me. Dragonfly doesn't move like that. Maybe I'm getting faked out in my old age.
Too soon...
Rust never sleeps. Perhaps your time away has changed your views?
Dragonfly changed his/her name acouple days ago because the government was making him/her sick or something.
matt
"Just FYI...this is formerly Dragonfly41...I changed to Virtual Ipecac today since today's conversations left me with this feeling. "
On the other hand, isn't there always a carrier in the SOH anyway? Two aircraft carriers could actually do something. Add to that an unknown number of cruise-missile carrying submarines in the area, an unknown number of ground-based cruise missiles at our bases in Iraq and the rest of the area, and a day's worth of lead time to launch stealth fighters and bombers from around the world, and we could always be surprised.
There's also the possibility of an Israeli strike. If we expected the Israelis to hit Iran, it might be prudent on our part to send an additional carrier battle group to the Strait to deal with any counterattacks from the Iranians. And imagine if the Iranians were to attack us (this battle group) before the election.
Finally, if we were to do anything, I wouldn't expect it before election day. Any shots fired would send oil and gas prices skyrocketing on or by election day. Not a good plan for the Republicans, unless the Iranians fire the first shots.
attacking Iran is politically acceptable in Israel, perhaps more than in the US.
a fake attack a la Gulf of Tonkin so Bu$hco can say, "hay ! we've been attacked too"
when ? they've thrown up this "wall of craziness", concomitant with "could happen any time in the next 3 months".
the US is already at war with Iran, on 2 fronts - proxy funded war with the US funding Israel & Iran funding Hezbollah, and regular small bombing missions (in Iran) by US & British (and maybe Israel) troops.
so it's a tinderbox and GW is playing with matches - whilst believing that he is "doing God's will" AND invulnerable to fire !
not a healthy recipe.
Can you present evidence of airstrikes in Iran?
What I see disturbing on the internet is the following:
1.Absolutely NO ONE is attempting to stop spam nor is anyone , even though laws are on the books, enforcing those laws. If the governmnet can't even stop spam this what can they do when TSHTF?
I also have grave reservation about scripts that run on the clientside, yet once more we are losing in that area as well.
So what did the above two 'professional speakers' say about any of the above? I doubt they understood it at all. Friedman least of all. The others seemed to be preaching or giving lessons on history.
Did I miss something?
Hell, we have a local billboard company thats using the courts to force a local municipality to cut down trees put in a few years ago as part of a beautification project. The trees have grown up and infringed on the 500 feet visibilility right of way in the original land sale to the "media" company.
And then look around you at the clothes people wear - most of us willingly offer up our bodies as billboards for one brand or another.
The problem is not with the internet, it is with our culture. We are rapidly moving toward a point where our relationships with other people are mediated by market more than by any other possibility.
This is not an endorsement of Microsoft. I hate Microsoft. 'F**ing Microsoft sh*t!' is one of my most frequent utterances. But the fact is, to switch to Linux requires a lot of patience and savvy, and there is a steep learning curve if you've never looked 'under the software hood' of a computer before. You don't have to be a moron to be unwilling to deal with that.
This is part of the reason why the world is still Microsoft. It's almost 'costless' in terms of intellectual effort (but not in dollar terms, efficiency or stability, or the user's sense of not being a completely exploitable pratt).
I started out scratching the 1s and 0s in one rock with another. In fact, we had to use the letter 'l'. IBM 407 plugboards were such a great advance!
Unfortunately, while this is the support that Ubuntu gets from small computer shops, linux will remain an OS for hackers only.
Sorry for all of the parentheticals.
.doc
or.pdf
files, you'd need M$ or Adobe to view those. But you can navigate the site.don't know about any command line .pdf viewers but xpdf and it's derivatives work just fine.
btw i am typing this on a dv6000 with 64bit linux installed. not as hard as it seems.
I'd say you missed a few things. First, close this Window. Now go to the "Start" button on the lower left of your screen and choose "Log Off." Now use the power button on the front of your computer to turn it off. Have you missed anything? Are you following my instructions? Print these out if you can't remember them.
OK, now unplug your computer from the wall. Good. Go into your kitchen. Get a fork out of the drawer where you keep utensils. Go back into the room where the computer is. Now stick that fork into the socket where you just unplugged the computer from.
Feel better? I thought so. I do that at least once a year. Don't make it a habit.
Or save yourself the whole problem, get a Mac with Safari browser, and install for free Firefox as a second browser, which runs beautifully on a Mac where it is allowed to, and not impeded by Mircrosoft trying to hold on to the Explorer monopoly.
Oil CEO, I am afraid I have to agree with the guy, Microsoft....I have had every version going back to '97, more crashes, frozen screens, lost files, and lost money than I can count....two and a half years on Mac with the twin browser set up as described and I remember what I loved about computers in the old days...no viruses, no worms, no push software, I have almost forgot what a pop up looks like, and 2 and 1/2 years without a single lost file or crash...
People are responding to the Microsoft crisis (and it really is one, businesses in America are being bled to death by the losses, ineffeciencies, and and downtime and ripoff fees of Microsoft) the same way thay are responding for the need for change in the energy system, it is almost a case study:
(a) It's too much trouble to change, all the infrastructure is designed for (oil), microsoft.
(b) We know change would improve sustainability and efficiency and reduce pain for us in the long haul, but let somebody else make it easier, why should I be the one to leave (oil) (Microsoft?
(c) Hey, Microsoft (Exxon, BP, Chevron, etc) are big, they know what they are doing....
(d) Microsoft (Exxon, BP, Chevron, etc) control everything, no alternative has a chance.
(e) And of course the old fall back, yeah, Microsoft (oil) is a dead end in the long run, but they have a brand new find (program, Operating System) coming soon, and it will fix everything (again), just give them time.....
It is almost uncanny...If we cannot even declare freedom and independence from a newcomer like Microsoft (contrary to popular belief, Microsoft DID NOT invent software, and in fact, most of the software they peddle started out as patent grabs of other peoples work), what hope do we have of changing the "operating system" of the modern world, i.e. oil.
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
No. You are absolutely correct. I just needed to rant. Airdale is great. As much as I might disagree with him at times. I just took his long, well thought-out post to unrust myself.
I do computers as living. I code in several languages and am proficient in all the subsciences. So I've got opinions.
I write on a 7 year old Sony laptop with a 600 MHz processor. I prefer Dells but this is my baby. I dug it out of the trash. I took it apart screw by screw and wrote myself schematics for how to rebuild it. When I did, it worked. And It has never failed me. When it does, I'll give it a proper burial.
As far as Operating systems go, I have never paid for a Windows one. I figure I sell so much stuff for them, they owe me. I've hacked my way past anything Microsoft has ever offered.
Strangely, oil(Rockefeller) lead me to computing(Gates)... and then back again.
I got started with TRS80's, I kinda skipped the Apple Generation. I could never tweak them. I discovered girls round about then. You can't tweak them either.
But honestly, I still don't like Firefox. I feel IE runs much faster. I suppose it depends on your setup.
Back to the Coffin,
Fellow Vampire
I need you to get it started. 500 words. After that Jack and SAT will follow. After that I'm hoping Odograph and maybe Darwinian. Oldhippie's in the on-deck circle but I'm only going to let him talk about books.
For the time being I'm gonna play the Chris Matthews of Oil.
Trust me.
Oil CEO,
Don't worry about the spelling of my name, you should see the infinite ways people find to spell my last name...and it seemed rather easy and straight forward to me!
Yeah, sure...I will write something, what do you have in mind as far as subject, tone, etc...just give me a direction, or I will freestyle it....but what are the odds of keeping me to 500 words once you get me started...oh well, if I go long, you can cut it down, keep the best and throw out the rest, and it will make me look like a better writer anyway :-)
Let's work it out!
"I ask nothing more from my readers than that they devote their lives to the study of my work." James Joyce
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
The only thing I will edit is you're punctuation and spelling. You have my word. I'll print anything you wish. So get busy.
OK, you want direction? I'll give you some things I've been thinking about.
This Kid from Amaranth. Brian Hunter. Lost $8 Billion. Where did he get his ideas. Could it have been Simmons?
(related issue) What happens to peak-oil fanatics when their short term predictions and theories prove disasterously(is that a word?) wrong? Do they go away or do they just come up with excuses and more predictions?
CERA.
Iraq.
Iran.
Does North Korea even matter?
Jim Kunstler. Is this guy sane? Does he know more about oil than Westexas tells him? Ehh. He must be sane. They publish his books.
Is Westexas really on vacation. Or has he joined Stuart and Jim Morrison in the Amazon?
I'm working on a comprehensive analysis of what I consider the top 75 oil-producing nations, which will be freely available before it is even done. I'm building out a new website for this purpose so it is not currently viewable. I will continue to confine my rants to TOD.
All I use 99% of the time.
Alan
Alan,
O.K., now this is getting spooky....Mac's running OS X and Firefox, old Mercedes Diesels, a fondness for electrified trains and river cities....
if you tell me you happen to have a fondness for bookish redheads as girlfriends, I am going to start searching my family tree for lost relations! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
I have always had a weakness for redheads (I do believe that there are character differences !)
AND
A former girlfriend (bottle auburn) believed that male sexuality was fetish orientated and my fetish was intelligence (she approved of that BTW).
(see Megan Quinn)
Alan
No it is not. A state of "does not work" VS "does work" results in a speed delta of infinity. Doesn't work sucks FAR more than works.
Or undefined. Either way, makes you wrong.
Because Firefox runs on UNIX. IE doesn't.
Henry Spencer
"Backup" When you click on the BACK icon on the navigation toolbar. This takes you back to the previous page.
"linux" Installed several distros. Red Hat, Suse, and others. There are several desktop gui's. Each makes Windoze desktop look primitive. The real problem with Linux is drivers for new gear.
"clear out the cache" Actually this is the wrong thing to do since loading a page is faster if its in your cache. Yet that is no solution since the ads and banners change constantly thererfore the page is 'stale' and you will do a new load anyway.
The rest are too banal to reply to(speaking of CEO's screed).
Did I again miss something?
Ohhh your take on Linux for the masses. You obviously have some rather arcane views. A cabal foisted Linux on the world? I suggested before that you lay off the 'good stuff'. I fear you are far, far too gone into 'reefer madness' to be salvagable. Your now into the 'bad stuff'.
Always a hoot to read you though. It gives one and idea of what to expect when the MadMax beyond Thunderdome 'cornies'come screaming into the hinterlands.
For everyone but OC the above has scads of TIC comments. I love wordplay but enough is enough.
airdale--wondering where did it all go wrong..birth control pills mebbe?..aluminum cookware?
Freedom is Slavery.
When reading my version of Kafka's Amerika, published in 2002, I came across similar thoughts from Michael Hofman in the introduction. (Kafka always needs translation).
Written before 1924.
That is because the simple stop is to convince people to STOP BUYING what spammers are peddling.
Most websites that peddle something now force you to set cookies on.
Cure HTTP being a connect, send info, then disconnect method.
When "the Web" becomes a state-connect medium, cookies will go away.
The lack of real information on the net.
VS the way you get REAL information elsewhere (say TV) and how NO ONE EVER tries to sell you soemthing on TV.
There is no real efforts underway to improve the net.
Yea, all that Java code, all that IPV6 code, all that IPV6 roll-outs and all the work being done outside the US of A is 'not a real effort'.
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/005103.html
No longer can you reload a page fast.
Right. BEcause reloading went SO much faster on dial-ups. Or the 56K links back in the pre-web days.
Being forced to use IE. And now even IE6.
Huh? So me IE6 (or IE 7) for BSD. Or one of the GNU/Linux versions.
People need to get real about Linux
EWwwww. Why would you want to use a GNU/Linux fork when there is FreeBSD?
We say we are not religious fundamentalists.
But we are.
We worship the Market.
Maybe Allah/Jesus/FSM will not provide us with all that we need.
But The Market will.
To each according to how deeply he believes and worships. From each according to how easily he can be conned.
Just kidding.
ATW -Atwood oceanics. At current day rates should earn $20 per share in 2009. Trading at 44.
Easy ten bagger.
Do your own DD.
By the way, what exactly is the oil "problem?" Was it the new peak production record set in July, the 30% drop in prices since that time, or OPEC's need to cut 4.5% of production to try to keep prices from falling further?
Do you think OPEC's actually gonna cut Oil CEO?
Ultimately I will have to wait and see. The 1.2 mbpd isn't set to begin until Nov. 1st. The numbers won't be out(preliminary estimates only) from the EIA until first week of first week of February 2007. Long way. There will be perhaps semi-reliabe figures available a month earlier from MEES and even earlier from other sources perhaps. But we just won't know until then.
The fact of the matter is that going back to the conception of this website we have all basically disparaged anything coming out of the mouth of OPEC. We can't simply start trusting and believing them now. They have almost no credibility on any matter, most importantly oil production.
They are not even a real organization. They have as much cohesion as the European Union.
OPEC 10? Try OPEC 9. Indonesia is going to cut production? That shouldn't be hard. They haven't needed much help in the past. But they are not even an exporter.
Qatar is going to cut 35,000 barrels? Big deal. They could increase production by 70,000 barrels it would make the same amount of difference.
Nigeria. I have been working on a piece about Nigeria for a while. The long and the short is that I wouldn't believe anything Nigeria says. They don't even produce their own oil. Better to ask Shell and Exxon.
Venezuela. Haha.
So the question is not so much if they are going to cut, but whether you believe them. Of course they won't cut.
What is the figure 40% of world production. That's a minority. There are too many other countries who will fill the gap. And this has nothing to do with peak-oil. But if you look at the new stuff that comes online daily, it's hard to see how a proposed 1.2 mbpd voluntary, unenforced cut is going to make the nut. Ramirez says they need another 500,000 bpd drop to be affective. I tend to read between the lines with the oil-ministers themselves. Bloomberg's daily reports on oil industry are a good source.
Dude, you just had your chain yanked.
I think oil is done dropping and we are gonna get a stupendous rally. Also Commercials are going hevily short the dollar. They have a phenonmenal track record. LAst time they went this short the dollar tanked 5%. That too could support the dollar price of oil.
So far.
So good.
So what.
We could ask SAT what he thinks now, but remember, he didn't vote.
I did the easy part. The easy part was predicting a big fall when oil was at $78. Whether or not it's going to rise or fall from $57 is another story.
$78 was cake. $78 was nuts. $57 is like cracking a nut.
I do think gold has another 15-20% to fall. And gold and oil have been mirroring each other pretty good lately. For whatever that's worth.
I doubt oil falls another 15-20%. 10% from here would put us right around $53. That's definitely a posibility. Right in the meat of my ladder.
My ladder goes all the way down to $40. But i'm cautious like that.
Again, the important thing was not to be buying at $78. Like some people were. There was good money to be made on the way down. That was the easy money.
There's no easy money at $57. Not in the short-term anyway.
If you think of this oil correction as a roller coaster, we already came down the biggest hill. We've still got some ups and downs in front of us, and we'll probably end up lower than we are right now. Then we'll get back on, head back up -- clackety, clackety, clack -- and do it all over again.
I'm serious. I'd do anything for Nicki(I have in fact, but we don't need to get into that).
Take a break. Do some meditation. Smoke some weed, review your charts. We've got a place for you. Come back. No need to be making rushed predictions. You're alright.
You could be the next Brian Hunter - (before the collapse).
Always in debt to you,
Margaret Thatcher
Seems like it should be if there is a competitive market.
Remember $11 was a new idea in 1973. Previous to that it was different. Round about this time)1969) the Arabs realized we were fucking them. They realized it was their oil we wanted, not their camel-rides and flying-carpets. Can you say "Ali-Baba and the Forty Thieves?"
Maybe we will realize that about ourselves soon and lose Disney-Land.
"What I don't understand is if there's a glut of oil on the market, why isn't the price back down to $11 a barrel?"
"Seems like it should be if there is a competitive market."
------
Well, if there is a glut of new cars on the market, why aren't they $3000 retail per car?
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
Seems like it should be if there is a competitive market.
(Sound of two hands clapping in the background.)
I am mostly a contrarian. It works for me.
I thought it closed at 56.82...
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH9475 1_2006-10-20_19-51-51_SP212856
http://www.insidefutures.com/articles/article.php?id=1891
Oil prices are down $1.20 a barrel Friday to trade below $57.30. This has occurred even though OPEC announced it would cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day to offset falling prices. However, OPEC is anything but dependable and there are doubts about whether the countries that are a part of OPEC will actually follow through on the cuts.
The Dow is fighting to maintain a price above 12,000 after closing above this resistance level on Thursday. If this level can hold, it would be a bullish sign going forward. Remember, today is option expiration for October contracts, so make sure to make any adjustments needed.
This $2.50 spread has been initially attributed to OPEC's cuts not causing pain until December, but it has to get ironed out Monday. Check out Singapore at about 8 or 10 pm EST on Sunday night to get a jump on it(I forget what the time zones are).
Seems like some after hours accounting being shored up. All the future contracts were also revised down.
ICE is pretty good, too. They do Brent. They've got a decent 14-day free trial(just register with fake email) on their live-tracker, or whatever. It didn't really do anything for me and I think they have some improvements to make as well, but others may have a different opinion.
Another interesting note from Poptech.
"This year, we'll be partnering with the Solar Electric Light Fund to calculate the net carbon emissions of all 500+ attendees at Pop!Tech, then investing in rural solar electrification projects that offset twice that amount of carbon from the atmosphere. These programs will replace expensive and high-polluting diesel generators with solar panels. "
I think this is pretty kewl. It was another very full day here. Everyone should see a Thomas Barnett presentation.
My second, and despite the truly scary shit he speaks of
just an incredible tour de force presentaion.
Much, much mind candy here.
http://poptech.org
Don in Maine
http://mainelyenergy.com
Pink Flamingos, RIP?
And our township newsletter noted the cost of asphalt went up 33% over last year.
Things should get better after the US or Israel hits Iran's reactor sites.
Sounds like Barter Town to me.
10-4 on hitting the nuke sites. Lets get it done and see what falls out. At least before the election. Then we'll all know how to vote.
Amurkah.."Get Some!"
Pancakes and Sausage
This is the exact wrong time to post this as I realize you have probably gone to bed, but I don't want the thought to escape.
These second Drumbeats have worked out. They will only prove more fruitful in the future. The second shift is enamoured with them. Of course we are low with 35 hits at 2 am, but that is weekend traffic here.
I realize that I will be taken as Goering to your Hitler ... maybe I should re-phrase that ... aw fuckit, you know what I mean.
Might I propose something. Leanan does an excellent job with posting stories and news articles. Yes, I have my problems with the stories. Yes, Leanan hates me. But these are things that can be worked out.
I propose Jack be given the ability to post articles as an editor on the second Drumbeat.
He is smart as a whip. He has proven himself sober at all times. He is funny as hell. He is the ultimate adult. He never ceases to smile. He certainly reads everthing in print. He is fair.
Everything Leanan is. Everything I am not.
Anyway, just a suggestion.
Sincerely,
Iggy Pop
Jack can start posting them in a comment...then we'll see how it goes, eh?
The Scarborough Incident really puts it in stark relief:
TOD thread: Wednesday August 16, 2006
Read that again. The consensus by many at TOD was that it was all the "MSM"s fault, for not distinguishing between the "stick houses and composting toilet" crowd and the strict question of resource depletion.
Ah, when you become the stick houses and composting toilet crowd, what do you expect?
My answer is to pull back, pull out. Adding a voice within the "stick house" community isn't going to change the dynamic. The next time Peak Oil appears on cable, the same thing will repeat. It will keep repeating as the "Peak Oil" movement continues its shift to doomerism.
... and I'm afraid it's not the "MSM's fault". They've got you (a few days ago it would have been "us") pegged.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14375558/
What an embarassing day to be a "peak oiler"
"fleam on Monday October 02, 2006 at 9:38 PM EST
I got beat up and was often in fear for my life because I wasn't 6'2" and 200 lbs, and it's hard to get a white gang together when whites are less than 5% of the school.
And while I do admire Uncle Wolf greatly as a philosopher and a human being, and am a Nazi, I say Feh and double Feh to the "Third Reich" in Germany in the 30s/40s, thousand year reich?? Bah! Try 10 years! Bunch of foul-ups!! They did save Europe from being eaten by the USSR, and did give the US its space program, but the larger war was lost and will have to be fought again.
The coming hard times are going to be very educational to people like you, it will be learn loyalty to your own tribe or die.
Among very small groups, a "tribe" of individuals of several different races can work and work well, but look around you at reality for a change. There's a whole lot of killing and dying to get done before we get down to Lovelock's "small number of breeding pairs". The reality is populations large enough that race is very very important - whether you can get a job, where you live, how much you can achieve in life, access to college, etc etc all down the line, even how much or little you pay for car insurance (whites seem to get a break at times) or mortgage and first-time house buying programs (whites take is in the ass here especially first time buyer programs) etc race is all in the Empire, and everywhere else in the world.
I can't change being a Nazi, but I can try to express the thoughts of a type of person that exists, no matter how much you may wish they didn't, and try to convey why the politics and social engineering of the present Powers That Be are only creating many many more people like me."
My favorite is one of Fleam's first. The one where he couldn't tell the difference between 'whether' and 'weather' on a thread about hurricanes. You will piss yourself laughing when you find it. He ended up trying to blame it on Americans. The cameo appearances are the best. They explain a lot. It's so good, I've often thought of posting an image of the screen. Check it out. If Fleam ever comes near me again, I will. He's been warned several times.
Fleam was born just a little too late to get a gig with Monty Python.
Fleam if your there mail your lunch money to me.