DrumBeat II: October 20, 2006

Two reads for you tonight, the first, since we are a blog, and the internet remaining free is rather important for our continuing to make an impact, I bring you David Isenberg discussing Bill Moyers' latest over at WorldChanging...the second I bring you is Tom Friedman's talk from Pop!Tech.
What he's doing is giving a talk titled, "Why this is not your parents' energy crisis." His first reason: the war on terror is fueled by our energy purchases, on both sides of the equation. He gives the example of two stories he saw emerging at the same time in the New York Times: a refusal to expand CAFE fuel standards, and the refusal to cut American agricultural subsidies. He tells a story to tie the two together...
To start off the evening, a USS Eisenhower-related story:



Rumors about a possible American intervention in Iran have been intensifying after the US government deployed a naval strike group to the Straits of Hormuz, off the Iranian coast. The war ships - which include the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier U.S.S. Eisenhower, a cruiser, a destroyer, a frigate, a submarine and a supply ship - are scheduled to arrive in the Straits on Saturday.

The mission of the strike group is not known, but according to reports in the Iranian press, the war ships have been sent to the Gulf to launch a military attack against Teheran.

Parsi said he has no specific knowledge of the operation, but added he wouldn't be surprised if the Bush administration had taken actual steps towards a military strike.

If Bush is crazy enough to do Iran, we should all be doomers.  

I guess it's a win-win for Russia, SA, Exxon, UAE, Venezuela, etc., though.

Keep following that boat, DragonFly41.

I don't quite get this. I haven't been following TOD as closely as I used to, but I've noticed these references.

Do you think Ipecac is Dragonfly? Ipecac is new, granted, and there is something vaguely similar to (actually) several other previous posters. Though, I don't feel Dragonfly is one of them. But who knows.

I definitely get the feel VI has been here before, knows what he is doing, and has changed his name.

Only Super G would know.

I of course won't get into the Iran thing at this point. I've spent way too much time, as have others, debunking this stuff in the past.

Iran ain't going to happen is how I'll sum it up. Or at least not this year and definitely not before the election. How ridiculous.

I like his name though. Makes you want to puke. Rock on, VI.

By the way, It's about time the Angry Chimpster stopped by for a chat. Some of us seriously miss you, brother. Maybe you could teach BrianT a thing or two.

No, it's him.  It's DragonFly41.  I'm sure of it.

It's just that this USS Eisenhower thing has given him a consitancy-of-message he never had before.  

He'll probably drop in and confess sometime tomorrow morning.  He gets up early to re-arrange his furniture.


Don't be too quick to knock his Iran theory either.  

One man's spoon is another man's aircraft carrier.

Bush is stirring the pot.

Hahahaa. You crack me up. You may be right. We'll be looking for Dragon's response in the morning, I guess. Damn, you're serious, aren't you.

I've got a couple of other names in mind. I'll try to remember them. You forget, I've been around a little longer.

I'm just glad Kevembuangga's gone. Maybe I spoke too soon. Plenty of people wish I was gone. Soon. Soon.

The Iran stuff ususally comes from MUDLOGGER. At least he's the only one can put it together coherently. AlistairC does OK, too.

This is still a mystery to me. Dragonfly doesn't move like that. Maybe I'm getting faked out in my old age.

I'm just glad Kevembuangga's gone.

Too soon...

Ahhaha. I got you.  I am the Master Baiter after all. Where you been buddy? You've lost your touch. Time to get unrusted.

Rust never sleeps. Perhaps your time away has changed your views?

Yeah, well he can stir the pot all he wants. My Mom makes the best soup. I always try to smoke the pot. Bush just wanted to be captain of the Dodgeball team. He ended up President. So draw any conclusions you want.

Dragonfly changed his/her name acouple days ago because the government was making him/her sick or something.  


Virtual Ipecac on Thursday October 12, 2006 at 3:20 PM EST
"Just FYI...this is formerly Dragonfly41...I changed to Virtual Ipecac today since today's conversations left me with this feeling. "
Thanks...yes...not trying to hide the fact...I'd been Dragonfly41 for over a year and just wanted a name change...something that reflected how I felt going into another round of elections...it all makes me want to hurl.
Are you guys fucking with me again? I only trust OilRig for now. There musta been something in that "special" enchilada sauce. Whoa! I think I gotta lie down. I'll see you guys on Monday. I better not have my eyebrows shaved-off, cuz I'll know who to blame. Fleam.
On the face of it, one carrier battle group doesn't seem enough to do the job.  I think Oil CEO's right and we're just flexing some muscle in the neighborhood.  

On the other hand, isn't there always a carrier in the SOH anyway?  Two aircraft carriers could actually do something.  Add to that an unknown number of cruise-missile carrying submarines in the area, an unknown number of ground-based cruise missiles at our bases in Iraq and the rest of the area, and a day's worth of lead time to launch stealth fighters and bombers from around the world, and we could always be surprised.

There's also the possibility of an Israeli strike.  If we expected the Israelis to hit Iran, it might be prudent on our part to send an additional carrier battle group to the Strait to deal with any counterattacks from the Iranians.  And imagine if the Iranians were to attack us (this battle group) before the election.

Finally, if we were to do anything, I wouldn't expect it before election day.  Any shots fired would send oil and gas prices skyrocketing on or by election day.  Not a good plan for the Republicans, unless the Iranians fire the first shots.

At this point it looks like the repubs are toast anyway - what do they have to lose?
Amazingly simple. Yet effective. It's called logic. But you know this. I've called you smart before. I'll do it again.

attacking Iran is politically acceptable in Israel, perhaps more than in the US.

a fake attack a la Gulf of Tonkin so Bu$hco can say, "hay !  we've been attacked too"

when ?  they've thrown up this "wall of craziness", concomitant with "could happen any time in the next 3 months".

the US is already at war with Iran, on 2 fronts - proxy funded war with the US funding Israel & Iran funding Hezbollah, and regular small bombing missions (in Iran) by US & British (and maybe Israel) troops.

so it's a tinderbox and GW is playing with matches - whilst believing that he is "doing God's will" AND invulnerable to fire !

not a healthy recipe.

"the US is already at war with Iran, on 2 fronts - proxy funded war with the US funding Israel & Iran funding Hezbollah, and regular small bombing missions (in Iran) by US & British (and maybe Israel) troops."

Can you present evidence of airstrikes in Iran?

Read both linked sites. Didn't see much about 'freedom' and the 'internet'.

What I see disturbing on the internet is the following:

1.Absolutely NO ONE is attempting to stop spam nor is anyone , even though laws are on the books, enforcing those laws. If the governmnet can't even stop spam this what can they do when TSHTF?

  1. Most websites that peddle something now force you to set cookies on. They are saying in effect" set your cookies on for us or you don't get to see what you want to see. They are becoming more and more ruthless. Meaning users are losing their freedoms to browse and find infomation.

  2. The lack of real information on the net. You do a google and you quadzillions of hits for the sites in #2. You want a recipe for apple pie? You get hundreds of hits for cookbooks. Its now ALL about merchandising and not the flow of free information. Ok you can find a apple pie recipe but most of everything else is just a leadin to (even the recipe) to further merchandising schemes. Real information is now being sold instead of available.

  3. There is no real efforts underway to improve the net. Huge areas of the USA are without DSL facilities. Yet most websites are designed as though you have broadband or a DSL or a Cable modem. Sites now take forever and ever to download or get to the homepage and really the webmonkeys who design them could give a shit less.

  4. No longer can you reload a page fast. You want to do a back up on your browser? The load takes just a long as before. I suspect its all because of CSS and other dynamic page building. Why do that for the HOMEPAGE? Its stupid and the game is now apparently firmly under the control of the merchandisers. A cruel and ugly bunch.

  5. Being forced to use IE. And now even IE6.

  6. Authentication by MSFT. Heinous. People need to get real about Linux and shut MSFT down. Won't happen because the basic user is a moron and unless to paste it on his forehead he won't understand. Bananna oil on the keys might be a solution for those who haven't yet descended from out of the trees.

  7. Everyone no matter how little it costs to host a website(server costs,etc) do banners and ads. This site is the least invasive on the many I visit which make it almost impossible to load a website without visiting every counter and database archiver in the net.

The days of fast loading , informative website appears to be rapidly disappearing. Instead you have to swallow a whale to get their. For those on dialup its getting worse and worse and no one seems to care about designing good code.

I also have grave reservation about scripts that run on the clientside, yet once more we are losing in that area as well.

So what did the above two 'professional speakers' say about any of the above? I doubt they understood it at all. Friedman least of all. The others seemed to be preaching or giving lessons on history.

Did I miss something?

I guess I'm not sure why you would have expected anything else. Television is completely commercialized - even to the point where most programs are just extension of the advertisements. Most radio stations 18 minutes of commercials an hour (now that I write that it looks funny - my memory fails me on this one).

Hell, we have a local billboard company thats using the courts to force a local municipality to cut down trees put in a few years ago as part of a beautification project. The trees have grown up and infringed on the 500 feet visibilility right of way in the original land sale to the "media" company.

And then look around you at the clothes people wear - most of us willingly offer up our bodies as billboards for one brand or another.

The problem is not with the internet, it is with our culture. We are rapidly moving toward a point where our relationships with other people are mediated by market more than by any other possibility.

Actually I would love to switch to Linux, but for someone without plenty of tech knowledge it's a very big hassle. In fact, I once did install a Linux package on an old 386... I knew nothing about it, had to deal with all sorts of arcane BS related to partitioning the disk, then basically thought 'Screw it... nuke the disk! Linux only...' then never used it because the Internet dial-up wouldn't work, and basically I only wanted to use the computer for the Internet. Nowadays it's even worse, because broadband providers don't give support for getting Linux to work. Why would I take a risk with Linux when I know I will have to sacrifice God knows how many hours just trying to get broadband applications to run?

This is not an endorsement of Microsoft. I hate Microsoft. 'F**ing Microsoft sh*t!' is one of my most frequent utterances. But the fact is, to switch to Linux requires a lot of patience and savvy, and there is a steep learning curve if you've never looked 'under the software hood' of a computer before. You don't have to be a moron to be unwilling to deal with that.

This is part of the reason why the world is still Microsoft. It's almost 'costless' in terms of intellectual effort (but not in dollar terms, efficiency or stability, or the user's sense of not being a completely exploitable pratt).

Ubuntu is supposed to be a friendly distro. I have installed it on a machine I was donating to charity, but haven't worked with it much. I do have experience with its parent distro, Debian, but I guess tech knowledge hasn't been a problem for me.

I started out scratching the 1s and 0s in one rock with another. In fact, we had to use the letter 'l'. IBM 407 plugboards were such a great advance!

I recently tried to switch my parents to Ubuntu and failed miserably. Their computer decided to scramble most of the data on the hard drive, and as they are very cheap with their computers, I figured that Ubuntu was the perfect solution(they don't have a windows licence). I'm going to college and don't have time to support them anymore, so I took the computer to the local computer shop so that I wouldn't have to deal with it. The shop completely squandered this perfect opportunity. I am still dealing with calls for help. If they had taken the time(more money for them) to properly configure everything(I gave them specific instructions of what to configure), everything would have gone smoothly and they would have had customers that were reliant on them for support. Now my parents don't want to go back to the shop because they are disappointed and they don't want to make the effort to learn the new system (It's really all the same software, they just see it as a PITA because of the problems).
Unfortunately, while this is the support that Ubuntu gets from small computer shops, linux will remain an OS for hackers only.
Sorry for all of the parentheticals.
Dr. Bernstein's pages still seem to load pretty fast. You can view them with Lynx if you so desire ... of course, since some of the material is .doc or .pdf files, you'd need M$ or Adobe to view those. But you can navigate the site.
open office opens .doc's fine.
don't know about any command line .pdf viewers but xpdf and it's derivatives work just fine.

btw i am typing this on a dv6000 with 64bit linux installed. not as hard as it seems.

Did I miss something?

I'd say you missed a few things. First, close this Window. Now go to the "Start" button on the lower left of your screen and choose "Log Off." Now use the power button on the front of your computer to turn it off. Have you missed anything? Are you following my instructions? Print these out if you can't remember them.

OK, now unplug your computer from the wall. Good. Go into your kitchen. Get a fork out of the drawer where you keep utensils. Go back into the room where the computer is. Now stick that fork into the socket where you just unplugged the computer from.

Feel better? I thought so. I do that at least once a year. Don't make it a habit.

  1. No one is attempting to stop spam. Wrong. I am. I advocate the death penalty for spammers. Meanwhile you bombard me with your inane whining on a website devoted to oil.

  2. Clear out you browser cache once in a while. Don't go to those websites. Stop whining.

  3. Lack of real information on the web. Wrong. You just don't know what real information is or how to look for it. Again. You're problem. I just read through your entire post and then responded to it. None of this has anything to do with real information. See. You're just part of the problem. You need answers. Email at my website. I start at $300 an hour. And I don't do apple-pie recipes. My Mom does. She will have her own blog shortly.

  4. Oh, but the Koreans are. It doesn't matter anyway. Every effort to improve the web just brings more newbies and functional illiterates into the mix. Not to mention the whining. How did Paul Revere ever get along without it?

  5. Why would you want to do a backup on your browser? I thought you said you hated cookies. Just backup your favorites folder. Christ you are need of some professional help.

  6. Forced to use IE. Please. Firefox sucks. IE is 5 times as fast. The only time I use it is for this site. So I can "[n" past all the posts like yours and my my response to it. Netscape sucked, too. Long Live Microsoft. Bill Gates is God. Apple sucks, too. Steve Jobs is a whore. (Larry Ellison has the biggest yacht in the world. See where that got you?)

  7. Authentication? Hey, whatever. If you can't hack past it, that is also your problem. Linux sucks. Have you ever tried to install that shit? How many different flavors are there? Linux was a scam perpetuated on the world for a thankfully brief period by bitter Apple/Netscape/Sun/Failed-IBM people. It never worked in a desktop version because it sucks. It was a copy of Windows from a marketing perspective. From a server standpoint it is brilliant. But that is not what we are talking about.

  8. You haven't been to my website. I have no time for ads or banners. I hate them. They are totally distracting.

Did I miss something?

Or save yourself the whole problem, get a Mac with Safari browser, and install for free Firefox as a second browser, which runs beautifully on a Mac where it is allowed to, and not impeded by Mircrosoft trying to hold on to the Explorer monopoly.

Oil CEO, I am afraid I have to agree with the guy, Microsoft....I have had every version going back to '97, more crashes, frozen screens, lost files, and lost money than I can count....two and a half years on Mac with the twin browser set up as described and I remember what I loved about computers in the old days...no viruses, no worms, no push software, I have almost forgot what a pop up looks like, and 2 and 1/2 years without a single lost file or crash...

People are responding to the Microsoft crisis (and it really is one, businesses in America are being bled to death by the losses, ineffeciencies, and and downtime and ripoff fees of Microsoft) the same way thay are responding for the need for change in the energy system, it is almost a case study:

(a)  It's too much trouble to change, all the infrastructure is designed for (oil), microsoft.
(b) We know change would improve sustainability and efficiency and reduce pain for us in the long haul, but let somebody else make it easier, why should I be the one to leave (oil) (Microsoft?
(c)  Hey, Microsoft (Exxon, BP, Chevron, etc) are big, they know what they are doing....
(d)  Microsoft (Exxon, BP, Chevron, etc) control everything, no alternative has a chance.
(e)  And of course the old fall back, yeah, Microsoft (oil) is a dead end in the long run, but they have a brand new find (program, Operating System) coming soon, and it will fix everything (again),  just give them time.....

It is almost uncanny...If we cannot even declare freedom and independence from a newcomer like Microsoft (contrary to popular belief, Microsoft DID NOT invent software, and in fact, most of the software they peddle started out as patent grabs of other peoples work), what hope do we have of changing the "operating system" of the modern world, i.e. oil.

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

Hey Rogger,

No. You are absolutely correct. I just needed to rant. Airdale is great. As much as I might disagree with him at times. I just took his long, well thought-out post to unrust myself.

I do computers as living. I code in several languages and am proficient in all the subsciences. So I've got opinions.

I write on a 7 year old Sony laptop with a 600 MHz processor. I prefer Dells but this is my baby. I dug it out of the trash. I took it apart screw by screw and wrote myself schematics for how to rebuild it. When I did, it worked. And It has never failed me. When it does, I'll give it a proper burial.

As far as Operating systems go, I have never paid for a Windows one. I figure I sell so much stuff for them, they owe me. I've hacked my way past anything Microsoft has ever offered.

Strangely, oil(Rockefeller) lead me to computing(Gates)... and then back again.

I got started with TRS80's, I kinda skipped the Apple Generation. I could never tweak them. I discovered girls round about then. You can't tweak them either.

But honestly, I still don't like Firefox. I feel IE runs much faster. I suppose it depends on your setup.

Back to the Coffin,
Fellow Vampire

Roger, not Rogger, Duh. Sorry. So are you gonna write something for my website or not :)

I need you to get it started. 500 words. After that Jack and SAT will follow. After that I'm hoping Odograph and maybe Darwinian. Oldhippie's in the on-deck circle but I'm only going to let him talk about books.

For the time being I'm gonna play the Chris Matthews of Oil.

Trust me.

Oil CEO,

Don't worry about the spelling of my name, you should see the infinite ways people find to spell my last name...and it seemed rather easy and straight forward to me!

Yeah, sure...I will write something, what do you have in mind as far as subject, tone, etc...just give me a direction, or I will freestyle it....but what are the odds of keeping me to 500 words once you get me started...oh well, if I go long, you can cut it down, keep the best and throw out the rest, and it will make me look like a better writer anyway :-)
Let's work it out!

"I ask nothing more from my readers than that they devote their lives to the study of my work."  James Joyce

Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout

Anything you want. 500 words or 5000. It's my website, so I'm the editor. With complete control. Hahaha.

The only thing I will edit is you're punctuation and spelling. You have my word. I'll print anything you wish. So get busy.

OK, you want direction? I'll give you some things I've been thinking about.

This Kid from Amaranth. Brian Hunter. Lost $8 Billion. Where did he get his ideas. Could it have been Simmons?

(related issue) What happens to peak-oil fanatics when their short term predictions and theories prove disasterously(is that a word?) wrong? Do they go away or do they just come up with excuses and more predictions?




Does North Korea even matter?

Jim Kunstler. Is this guy sane? Does he know more about oil than Westexas tells him? Ehh. He must be sane. They publish his books.

Is Westexas really on vacation. Or has he joined Stuart and Jim Morrison in the Amazon?

I'm working on a comprehensive analysis of what I consider the top 75 oil-producing nations, which will be freely available before it is even done. I'm building out a new website for this purpose so it is not currently viewable. I will continue to confine my rants to TOD.

P.S. I just read my first sentence of James Joyce. It was a good one, too. Thanks.
Firefox on Apple OS X runs quite well.  Unix on Unix :-)

All I use 99% of the time.



O.K., now this is getting spooky....Mac's running OS X and Firefox, old Mercedes Diesels, a fondness for electrified trains and river cities....

if you tell me you happen to have a fondness for bookish redheads as girlfriends, I am going to start searching my family tree for lost relations!  :-)

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout


I have always had a weakness for redheads (I do believe that there are character differences !)


A former girlfriend (bottle auburn) believed that male sexuality was fetish orientated and my fetish was intelligence (she approved of that BTW).

(see Megan Quinn)


Forced to use IE. Please. Firefox sucks. IE is 5 times as fast.

No it is not.   A state of "does not work" VS "does work" results in a speed delta of infinity.  Doesn't work sucks FAR more than works.

Or undefined.  Either way, makes you wrong.

Because Firefox runs on UNIX.  IE doesn't.

Everything is a copy of UNIX. c'mon.
"Those who do not understand Unix are condemned to reinvent it, poorly."
Henry Spencer
Well said. But XP runs fine for me.
Ahhh good old OIL CEO. Always so friendly and helpful.

"Backup" When you click on the BACK icon on the navigation toolbar. This takes you back to the previous page.

"linux" Installed several distros. Red Hat, Suse, and others. There are several desktop gui's. Each makes Windoze desktop look primitive. The real problem with Linux is drivers for new gear.

"clear out the cache" Actually this is the wrong thing to do since loading a page is faster if its in your cache. Yet that is no solution since the ads and banners change constantly thererfore the page is 'stale' and you will do a new load anyway.

The rest are too banal to reply to(speaking of CEO's screed).

Did I again miss something?

Ohhh your take on Linux for the masses. You obviously have some rather arcane views. A cabal foisted Linux on the world? I suggested before that you lay off the 'good stuff'. I fear you are far, far too gone into 'reefer madness' to be salvagable. Your now into the 'bad stuff'.

Always a hoot to read you though. It gives one and idea of what to expect when the MadMax beyond Thunderdome 'cornies'come screaming into the hinterlands.

For everyone but OC the above has scads of TIC comments. I love wordplay but enough is enough.

airdale--wondering where did it all go wrong..birth control pills mebbe?..aluminum cookware?  

I forgot too add. Read 1984. Please, Airdale, read this book. You will thank me later.

Freedom is Slavery.

When reading my version of Kafka's Amerika, published in 2002, I came across similar thoughts from Michael Hofman in the introduction. (Kafka always needs translation).

Written before 1924.

1.Absolutely NO ONE is attempting to stop spam

That is because the simple stop is to convince people to STOP BUYING what spammers are peddling.

Most websites that peddle something now force you to set cookies on.

Cure HTTP being a connect, send info, then disconnect method.

When "the Web" becomes a state-connect medium, cookies will go away.

The lack of real information on the net.

VS the way you get REAL information elsewhere (say TV) and how NO ONE EVER tries to sell you soemthing on TV.

There is no real efforts underway to improve the net.

Yea, all that Java code, all that IPV6 code, all that IPV6 roll-outs and all the work being done outside the US of A is 'not a real effort'.

No longer can you reload a page fast.

Right.  BEcause reloading went SO much faster on dial-ups.  Or the 56K links back in the pre-web days.

Being forced to use IE. And now even IE6.

Huh?  So me IE6 (or IE 7) for BSD.  Or one of the GNU/Linux versions.

People need to get real about Linux

EWwwww.   Why would you want to use a GNU/Linux fork when there is FreeBSD?

He (Tom Friedman) tells us that what we need is government regulation that doesn't rig the market, but sets stringent standards for mileage, appliances, power generation... like Governor Bush did years ago in Texas. ... But [then] there are market fundamentalists like Dick Cheney who passionately believe that the market will fix all problems, including energy efficiency.

We say we are not religious fundamentalists.
But we are.
We worship the Market.
Maybe Allah/Jesus/FSM will not provide us with all that we need.
But The Market will.
To each according to how deeply he believes and worships. From each according to how easily he can be conned.

Anybody have any good stock picks?
Anybody have any good stock picks?
NOT a good place to ask. People take the oil problem seriously here.
Just kidding.
ATW -Atwood oceanics. At current day rates should earn $20 per share in 2009. Trading at 44.
Easy ten bagger.
Do your own DD.
Believe me, the Keithster knows. Either he is joking or he doesn't care. He's been around a while. Probably even before you. He knows damn well the last thing we talk about is oil on a Friday night. Ethanol maybe.

By the way, what exactly is the oil "problem?" Was it the new peak production record set in July, the 30% drop in prices since that time, or OPEC's need to cut 4.5% of production to try to keep prices from falling further?

Sorry didnt know that. As far as the problem is concerned, its defintely the belief that we dont have one.
Do you think OPEC's actually gonna cut Oil CEO?
I've studied this question quite seriously for the last week and more. OPEC's actual power to affect the market fascinates me. I'm undecided. I tend to believe it is more 'jawboning.'

Ultimately I will have to wait and see. The 1.2 mbpd isn't set to begin until Nov. 1st. The numbers won't be out(preliminary estimates only) from the EIA until first week of first week of February 2007. Long way. There will be perhaps semi-reliabe figures available a month earlier from MEES and even earlier from other sources perhaps. But we just won't know until then.

The fact of the matter is that going back to the conception of this website we have all basically disparaged anything coming out of the mouth of OPEC. We can't simply start trusting and believing them now. They have almost no credibility on any matter, most importantly oil production.

They are not even a real organization. They have as much cohesion as the European Union.

OPEC 10? Try OPEC 9. Indonesia is going to cut production? That shouldn't be hard. They haven't needed much help in the past. But they are not even an exporter.

Qatar is going to cut 35,000 barrels?  Big deal. They could increase production by 70,000 barrels it would make the same amount of difference.

Nigeria. I have been working on a piece about Nigeria for a while. The long and the short is that I wouldn't believe anything Nigeria says. They don't even produce their own oil. Better to ask Shell and Exxon.

Venezuela. Haha.

So the question is not so much if they are going to cut, but whether you believe them. Of course they won't cut.

What is the figure 40% of world production. That's a minority. There are too many other countries who will fill the gap. And this has nothing to do with peak-oil. But if you look at the new stuff that comes online daily, it's hard to see how a proposed 1.2 mbpd voluntary, unenforced cut is going to make the nut. Ramirez says they need another 500,000 bpd drop to be affective. I tend to read between the lines with the oil-ministers themselves. Bloomberg's daily reports on oil industry are a good source.

Oh, and you're right. If there is a problem, it is the belief that we don't have one. You are catching on fast. Cheers.
Sorry didnt know that.

Dude, you just had your chain yanked.

giv'em a break. He's a new guy. Just trying to break him in. He's particularly smart, too. I like Fire. He's gonna be a great addition to the community.
I dont mind his comments.
I think oil is done dropping and we are gonna get a stupendous rally. Also Commercials are going hevily short the dollar. They have a phenonmenal track record. LAst time they went this short the dollar tanked 5%. That too could support the dollar price of oil.
It looks like oil prices are dropping more. Remember the poll that was posted here a while ago? It asked which would be the likely price of a barrel of oil in the near future: $73 or $53 a barrel. If you picked $53 it looks like you were right.
If you voted for oil to hover in the range of $53-$73 you were also "right". So what?
That's what I always say.

So far.
So good.
So what.

Twelve percent of us. But we are not there yet. OPEC is really putting up a fight. It could be a long, hard slog from 57 to 53, if it happens at all. Three and a half weeks left. The big drops have been happening on Tuesdays, with Fridays not doing so badly. I'm looking at Election Day, possibly Halloween as D-Day.

We could ask SAT what he thinks now, but remember, he didn't vote.

Where is oil going from here?  I'll let someone else answer that question.

I did the easy part.  The easy part was predicting a big fall when oil was at $78.  Whether or not it's going to rise or fall from $57 is another story.

$78 was cake.  $78 was nuts.  $57 is like cracking a nut.

I do think gold has another 15-20% to fall.  And gold and oil have been mirroring each other pretty good lately.  For whatever that's worth.

I doubt oil falls another 15-20%.  10% from here would put us right around $53.  That's definitely a posibility.  Right in the meat of my ladder.  

My ladder goes all the way down to $40.  But i'm cautious like that.

Again, the important thing was not to be buying at $78. Like some people were.  There was good money to be made on the way down.  That was the easy money.

There's no easy money at $57.  Not in the short-term anyway.

If you think of this oil correction as a roller coaster, we already came down the biggest hill.  We've still got some ups and downs in front of us, and we'll probably end up lower than we are right now.  Then we'll get back on, head back up -- clackety, clackety, clack -- and do it all over again.

You're still King of the Hill here. You're like Kunstler used to be. You need your own blog. You can post on mine anytime. Nicki made me say that. She wants a date.

I'm serious. I'd do anything for Nicki(I have in fact, but we don't need to get into that).

Take a break. Do some meditation. Smoke some weed, review your charts. We've got a place for you. Come back. No need to be making rushed predictions. You're alright.

You could be the next Brian Hunter - (before the collapse).

Always in debt to you,
Margaret Thatcher

What I don't understand is if there's a glut of oil on the market, why isn't the price back down to $11 a barrel?

Seems like it should be if there is a competitive market.

There's no glut. There's a different paradigm. There's a different relationship between supply, demand, refinery ability, and (what is called) "spare capacity". $11 is gone. Start thinking of $60 as the floor. $60 is your new $11.

Remember $11 was a new idea in 1973. Previous to that it was different. Round about this time)1969) the Arabs realized we were fucking them. They realized it was their oil we wanted, not their camel-rides and flying-carpets. Can you say "Ali-Baba and the Forty Thieves?"

Maybe we will realize that about ourselves soon and lose Disney-Land.

"What I don't understand is if there's a glut of oil on the market, why isn't the price back down to $11 a barrel?"

"Seems like it should be if there is a competitive market."

Well, if there is a glut of new cars on the market, why aren't they $3000 retail per car?

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

What I don't understand is if there's a glut of oil, why isn't the price back down to $11 a barrel?

Seems like it should be if there is a competitive market.

I picked $53.

(Sound of two hands clapping in the background.)
I am mostly a contrarian. It works for me.

I'm confused...why is the November contract showing 60.21 right now....was this trading after hours?


I thought it closed at 56.82...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH9475 1_2006-10-20_19-51-51_SP212856

was today the last day of the contract?
Ah...yes...that explains it:


Oil prices are down $1.20 a barrel Friday to trade below $57.30. This has occurred even though OPEC announced it would cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day to offset falling prices. However, OPEC is anything but dependable and there are doubts about whether the countries that are a part of OPEC will actually follow through on the cuts.

The Dow is fighting to maintain a price above 12,000 after closing above this resistance level on Thursday. If this level can hold, it would be a bullish sign going forward. Remember, today is option expiration for October contracts, so make sure to make any adjustments needed.

The Professor is correct. Today was the last day for November. Its contract closed at 56.82. The December contract replaces it and at about 3 to 5pm it stood at something like 59.33.

This $2.50 spread has been initially attributed to OPEC's cuts not causing pain until December, but it has to get ironed out Monday. Check out Singapore at about 8 or 10 pm EST on Sunday night to get a jump on it(I forget what the time zones are).

Interesting...the graphic I posted linked straight to fxstreet's graph...when I first posted it, it read 60.21 (swear to God) and now it's been updated to 56.82.

Seems like some after hours accounting being shored up.  All the future contracts were also revised down.

You should use either Nymex's website or Bloomberg's Energy Prices. Bloomberg will always give you the latest price (after hours, Singapore, whatever) - but they also give you a dollar change and percent change from the last official Nymex close/settlement(i.e. Monday thru Friday 3pm EST) so you can figure the last actual close. Nymex's website is a bit hard to figure out and I think they have a way to go to perfection, but if you can combine what you see there with Bloomberg you start to get an accurate picture.

ICE is pretty good, too. They do Brent. They've got a decent 14-day free trial(just register with fake email) on their live-tracker, or whatever. It didn't really do anything for me and I think they have some improvements to make as well, but others may have a different opinion.


Another interesting note from Poptech.

"This year, we'll be partnering with the Solar Electric Light Fund to calculate the net carbon emissions of all 500+ attendees at Pop!Tech, then investing in rural solar electrification projects that offset twice that amount of carbon from the atmosphere. These programs will replace expensive and high-polluting diesel generators with solar panels. "

I think this is pretty kewl. It was another very full day here. Everyone should see a Thomas Barnett presentation.
My second, and despite the truly scary shit he speaks of
just an incredible tour de force presentaion.

Much, much mind candy here.


Don in Maine

Another sign of impending collapse? :)

Pink Flamingos, RIP?

Union Products, manufacturer of the plastic pink flamingo, has ceased production of the quintessential kitsch icon. Apparently, the Leominster, Mass-based company was hit with financial woes, in part due to the increasing cost of plastic resin.

I think it usually starts at the periphery like this.

And our township newsletter noted the cost of asphalt went up 33% over last year.

Things should get better after the US or Israel hits Iran's reactor sites.

A thiefs stealing copper due to the enormous runup in price?

Sounds like Barter Town to me.

10-4 on hitting the nuke sites. Lets get it done and see what falls out. At least before the election. Then we'll all know how to vote.

Amurkah.."Get Some!"

In Minneapolis someone stole all of the copper pipes from a vacant home several weeks ago.  That isn't unique in some neighborhoods.  But here the theives didn't shut off the gas before they stole the pipes and the house exploded!
Tokyo ticket machines powered by footsteps
A Tokyo rail company has put footstep-powered generators under its ticket-vending machines; the tread of passengers generates electricity to power the machines. I've always loved the idea of little piezo generators that capture our ambient kinetic energy as we move through the world.
Is Jon Stewart reading The Oil Drum?

Pancakes and Sausage

We've long wondered about this question. Jack is going to love this. "The convenience of a stick." Hahahaha. Eco-friendly. Oh, I'm going to Hell.
Good catch DavidM.  It's so obvious.  Jon Stewart=OilCEO.
I wish. John's mellowed over the years. Dave Chapelle is what I'm shooting for.
I told my wife that when we saw it on Stewart. I said "Someone with his show must read TOD."
Professor Goose.

This is the exact wrong time to post this as I realize you have probably gone to bed, but I don't want the thought to escape.

These second Drumbeats have worked out. They will only prove more fruitful in the future. The second shift is enamoured with them. Of course we are low with 35 hits at 2 am, but that is weekend traffic here.

I realize that I will be taken as Goering to your Hitler ... maybe I should re-phrase that ... aw fuckit, you know what I mean.

Might I propose something. Leanan does an excellent job with posting stories and news articles. Yes, I have my problems with the stories. Yes, Leanan hates me. But these are things that can be worked out.

I propose Jack be given the ability to post articles as an editor on the second Drumbeat.

He is smart as a whip. He has proven himself sober at all times. He is funny as hell. He is the ultimate adult. He never ceases to smile. He certainly reads everthing in print. He is fair.

Everything Leanan is. Everything I am not.

Anyway, just a suggestion.

Iggy Pop

Yah Vuhl Hermann...

Jack can start posting them in a comment...then we'll see how it goes, eh?

We'll see how it goes. Words of Wisdom.
I don't think the "Peak Oil" movement understands its predicament.  It can either become part of a broader (but at the same time smaller) collapse brigade, or it can be bigger, more conventional, more energy-focused, and more mainstream.

The Scarborough Incident really puts it in stark relief:

TOD thread: Wednesday August 16, 2006

Read that again.  The consensus by many at TOD was that it was all the "MSM"s fault, for not distinguishing between the "stick houses and composting toilet" crowd and the strict question of resource depletion.

Ah, when you become the stick houses and composting toilet crowd, what do you expect?

My answer is to pull back, pull out.  Adding a voice within the "stick house" community isn't going to change the dynamic.  The next time Peak Oil appears on cable, the same thing will repeat.  It will keep repeating as the "Peak Oil" movement continues its shift to doomerism.

... and I'm afraid it's not the "MSM's fault".  They've got you (a few days ago it would have been "us") pegged.

Maybe it helps to see the transcript of how this went down on cable news:

SCARBOROUGH:  Now, according to this month`s cover issue of "Harpers" magazine, titled "Imagine There is No Oil: Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse," peak oilers say, quote, "Violent chaos will rule after the collapse of oil production, and the oilers` hope is to ride this time out in self-sufficient interim communities they call lifeboats."

Megan, here`s a drawing from your organization of a planned lifeboat where each home will be smaller than 1,000 square feet and will be built with straw bales, cordwood and stick adobe.  And there will be no driveways, garages, streets, lights, or air-conditioners.  There will be only [one] bathroom per home with a composting toilet.

Megan, is it going to really come to that?

QUINN:  Well, violence and chaos, that scenario is a possibility.

And, you know, we saw it with Hurricane Katrina how bad things got that we weren`t expecting it.

So I think what people are doing is preparing for the worst even while expecting the best.  And so these lifeboats that you mentioned is a way that people can, in their communities, start to prepare.  And what they`re looking at is local food production, local energy production, security for their households and their families, but also security at the community level.  And I think that`s intelligent to do, no matter what happens.


What an embarassing day to be a "peak oiler"

I just saw parts of some thing on the History Channel about the Nuremburg trials. Apparently, he hated being called Hermann. Anybody got a line on his World War I "ace" credentials?
Jack is a cornucopian, Oil CEO is into his Dad's whisky again, and Leanan is the heart and soul and head of Peak Oil writing so there.
What about you? What about you, Fleam? Describe yourself before we get a chance to. We were all feeling the love before you showed up. So show us we weren't wrong about you. Show us we should care.
Fleam already described himself....

"fleam on Monday October 02, 2006 at 9:38 PM EST

I got beat up and was often in fear for my life because I wasn't 6'2" and 200 lbs, and it's hard to get a white gang together when whites are less than 5% of the school.

And while I do admire Uncle Wolf greatly as a philosopher and a human being, and am a Nazi, I say Feh and double Feh to the "Third Reich" in Germany in the 30s/40s, thousand year reich?? Bah! Try 10 years! Bunch of foul-ups!! They did save Europe from being eaten by the USSR, and did give the US its space program, but the larger war was lost and will have to be fought again.

The coming hard times are going to be very educational to people like you, it will be learn loyalty to your own tribe or die.

Among very small groups, a "tribe" of individuals of several different races can work and work well, but look around you at reality for a change. There's a whole lot of killing and dying to get done before we get down to Lovelock's "small number of breeding pairs". The reality is populations large enough that race is very very important - whether you can get a job, where you live, how much you can achieve in life, access to college, etc etc all down the line, even how much or little you pay for car insurance (whites seem to get a break at times) or mortgage and first-time house buying programs (whites take is in the ass here especially first time buyer programs) etc race is all in the Empire, and everywhere else in the world.

I can't change being a Nazi, but I can try to express the thoughts of a type of person that exists, no matter how much you may wish they didn't, and try to convey why the politics and social engineering of the present Powers That Be are only creating many many more people like me."

Holy Shit! I never saw that one. That is a classic. Thanks, Medic, That's why I love you.

My favorite is one of Fleam's first. The one where he couldn't tell the difference between 'whether' and 'weather' on a thread about hurricanes. You will piss yourself laughing when you find it. He ended up trying to blame it on Americans. The cameo appearances are the best. They explain a lot. It's so good, I've often thought of posting an image of the screen. Check it out. If Fleam ever comes near me again, I will. He's been warned several times.

Fleam was born just a little too late to get a gig with Monty Python.

Oil go back and read the whole thread that day...

Fleam if your there mail your lunch money to me.