Economy grows at slowest pace in 3 years
Posted by Stuart Staniford on January 28, 2006 - 1:39am
The economy slowed to a near crawl in the final quarter of 2005, a listless showing that was the worst in three years. However, growth was respectable for the year and is expected to perk up again soon.Gross domestic product clocked in at an annual rate of just 1.1 percent from October through December. That marked a loss of speed compared with the third's quarter's brisk 4.1 percent pace, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Belt tightening by consumers, businesses and the government figured into the fourth-quarter's slowdown.
Uh, oh! Look at that drop in growth rate from 2004 to 2005. There's never been a year in the past 35 years when that big a drop in the red line was not followed by a big drop in the blue line the same or the following year. This is particularly so when the blue line is as high above the red line as it is in 2004. Look at 1984-1985 for the closest precedent. So that suggests that the chances we'll drop to GDP growth at or around zero in the near future are excellent.Where's Freddy Hutter? At the time (in late October) he said:
Sorry Stuart, but while your analysis would indicate zero growth, the usa is indeed in the middle of its business cycle and the critical mass is such that growth avg'g greater than 2% is guaranteed til 2006Q4and later declared premature victory over the Q3 results. Q3 was already over at the time I made my prediction about "the near future":
Hey Stuart, Real GDP was announced at 4.1% this morning. I have been a proponent of sustainable grwoth thru 2006/2007. With respect to our disagreement on potential USA growth wrt Miles Data on Oct 25th when u said:The New York Times adds:"We'll see who's right :-) Maybe driving and economic activity have become uncoupled recently, but I doubt it. (I'm not saying zero growth btw - I have no way to be that precise. I just think the growth rate is bound to drop pretty significantly for a while.)"
Are u ready to say "uncle"?!!
The intensity of the economic slowdown, which reduced yearly growth to 3.5 percent from 4.2 percent in 2004, surprised many forecasters, who had expected a sharp pickup in business investment in the final months of the year to take up some of the slack in consumer spending. They had predicted an overall growth rate of 2.5 percent to 3 percent in the nation's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the United States.He should have been looking at this:"It is not so much surprising as baffling," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for the United States at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y.
1.1%. Oh, I feel a terrible attack of Schadenfreude coming on....
Ok, all kidding aside, if the oil supply plateau continues flat and prices go up some more, this could well be the start of the peak oil economic ugliness.
Remember, I'm the chap who said +2% H1 2006, flat H2 2006, recession thereafter, a month back.
Looking closer at the data there were some special factors in both directions but mainly skewing it down. It may well be revised up to +2% approx in a month's time, we will see.
The most important thing I took from the data was consumer slowdown - the evidence for that riddled the data, and I don't think that is likely to recover much soon, I'm feeling comfortable with my overall 1% official GDP growth over 2006. I would be feeling very uncomfortable with the mainstream 3.5% 2006 estimate.
It is interesting comparing these comments immediately prior to the release:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFDE7B999%2D1142%2D43B0%2D824C%2DD560F56E50E2%7D&am p;siteid=mktw&dist
with those after it:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5869FC75%2D4B54%2D4C08%2D900A%2D5DF170530E18%7D&am p;siteid=mktw&dist
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B465AC54A%2DED6D%2D486B%2DBDF2%2D06C065C9B1BD%7D&am p;siteid=mktw&dist=
Now, I am a sceptic on certain US economic stats, and GDP is an important one of those. My personal take is that GDP is overstated by between 1.5% and 2.5% compared with how it was reported in US 10+ years ago and how it's reported in Europe. Some others I respect think it is overstated by 3 to 4%!
By those measures the US could be entering recession now. I don't think that is true, even though it is what I predicted a year ago. I expect Q4 2005 GDP to be revised up to a little over 2% and Q1 2006 to come in (after revisions) at about 2.7%. Recession will be with the US economy within a year but I don't think it is here yet.
With or without cooking the books, a GOP regime always means the economy sucks for those who are not gazillionaires. It sucked under Reagan just as well as now. The oil peak only helps Republicans impoverish the middle class, which is their goal. Why anyone votes for these arseholes puzzles me to no end - and the Dems aren't much better. Why Bush won't talk about the oil peak is simply becuse he can't ever tell the truth about anything. I guess democracy itself wan't Y2K-compliant.
Or the early 1990's.
Yep, GOP presidents always reign over craptacular economic situations.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/66xx/doc6669/09-29-EffectsOfHurricanes.pdf
1.2% of the forecast growth was cutback due to the extreme trade deficit. A trade deficit that defines "too healthy" an economy as americans continue to buy cheaper foreign goods (and oil & gasoline). Only a downward correction in the dollar will help that situation.
No credible economists are suggesting that this gdp report is a precursor to Recession. Only the many defeatists at TOD are gloating today. Many here must mature and learn that stats go up and down on a weekly, monthly, qtr'ly and even annual basis and it is important to watch the trendline ... not be consumed in absolute numbers. Otherwise confusion reigns.
Unemployment will continue to drop thru 2006. GDP, which until Q4 had a string of 10 qtr's at 3% or above, will resume its path in Q1 as the GOM rebuild of inftastructure, homes and contents continues.
Plan for a Recession at your own peril...
Personally, I have been expecting one for two years based purely on the price of oil. The fact that we haven't had one would lead one to re-appraise our analytical tools.
"What is different this time?"
We are in new territory.
As for why the economy has held up so well...I've heard two theories, both of which seem reasonable. One is that the rise in price was gradual, not sudden like it was the last time we were in this territory. So the economy had time to adjust.
The other is that there's a difference between a supply shock and a demand shock. According to this theory, what causes recessions are supply shocks - when suddenly, there's less oil than the economy is accustomed to. What we've had until recently has been a demand shock - the world economy growing so fast that supply can't keep up with demand. Since this is a result of healthy growth, it doesn't cause recession.
According to the latter theory, Katrina could be trouble, because that actually reduced supply.
Despite this, or perhaps because of this, the economy does better under Democrats.
Is the Fed trying to get Republicans in the White House and it is actually aiding Democrats as a policy? Because it doesn't know what it's doing, or because it does?
I do agree with some of your sentiment: the Q4 2005 advance stats will probably be revised up to about +2%, there are special factors. But the US economy will be in recession, even on the current optimistic measure, within a year.
Unemployment may drop but so will employment, now there's a conundrum. How do you expect house prices and consumer spend to change?
"Confidence men", in the literal sense of the word....
No wonders that historically, the can never see the forest for the trees.
It is interesting to note that in its release of Dec 21, the BEA revised DOWNWARD the estimate for the 3rd quarter to 4.1 percent ("final"). The Q3 05 "preliminary" number was 4.3 percent. See http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2005/gdp305f_fax.pdf. The "preliminary" estimate for Q4 05 comes in February and the "final" in March.
I would be expecting a recession soon, regardless of peak oil and energy prices. People have been maintaining their consumption by borrowing against their houses and running up their credit card debt. Clearly, that cannot continue forever, especially now that interest rates are rising. And the expansion is now four years old; we're due for a contraction.
There may be a dead-cat bounce next quarter, but I think we're headed toward recession.
President Bush and the Republican Congress will probably do everything they can to boost the economy this year, heading into the midterm elections. (More hand-holding with Saudi princes, no doubt.) But I'm not sure there's much they can do. The red ink seems to be scaring even Bush these days, so I'm not expecting any more tax cuts.
Talk of recession (August 17, 2005).
Sorry.
However, I have seen comment that the recession definition may have been 'tweaked' so I don't know what the official US definition might be today.
There have also been major changes to the calculation of GDP happening steadily since 1984. If these changes (that is, the current method of calculation) are applied to historic GDP statistics calculations the US has not had a recession at all since the very early 1980s ;)
However, every time there has been a significant increase in the price of oil over a relatively short timescale (I think a 50% increase over 18 months or less is approximately the measure used) the US has entered recession - as defined at the time - within 2 years. Every time the US Fed has increased interest rates 7 or more times consecutively a recession has followed.
By "every" I mean on all occasions over the last 60 years, no exceptions. Since both these conditions are in current effect it would seem reasonable to expect a recession soon and somewhat irrational to believe one will not happen.
There will, almost inevitably, be significant interaction between peak oil and recession. My big fear is that there is a relatively mild global recession throughout 2007 pushing peak oil back a little then, as the world begins to grow out of recession in late 2008 or perhaps 2009, the world runs into oil supply turning down post peak.
The Tao knows this.
http://www.thebigview.com/tao-te-ching/
In real terms, our incomes have been dropping for years. Groceries, fuel for transportation and heating have been going up, while our "raises" have barely been covering the increases in benefits - that's if we have any benefits. Now the housing market is turning down. Consumers and worried, scared, and out of disposable income - the jig is up, and all the phony statistics in the world are not going to cover it up. As oil rises even further it's only going to get worse. I don't think it's bad enough yet for people to change their fundamental assumptions about how much oil they use, but spending is going to drop significantly. We'll see how that relates to demand destruction.
I expect the massive rebates the auto manufacturers offered have indeed sucked the pipeline dry, and that effected Q4, but I don't think they're coming back. I think the economy is toast.
Then I thought maybe January, which was the deadline. Nope. Still 1%. (Which is ridiculous, IMO.)
More! More!! Encore!!! <claps hands happily>
From Calculated Risk. Priceds (this is of new homes) peaked in September: they dropped in October, again in November, and again in December. The average price actually has dropped 10% in three months! That rather has the look of a trend, doesn't it? If we're hitting peak oil and the tipping point at the end of the housing bubble at the same time, does that mean inflation, or deflation?
My take is a housing crash could do enough economic harm that oil prices might actually drop as demand drops faster than supply.
Of course, if someone dies for oil in the interim, that is a high price to pay, as some accountants might admit, and then Matt Simmons wins his bet against Tierny regarding the highest "price" paid for oil between now and then.
That is falling oil prices in inflation adjusted money do not necessery equal the ability to buy the same ammount of oil as you used to do.
$40 (2006 dollars) oil in 2009 after 10% global economic downturn is not cheap oil.
And, of course, the less extreme versions of all those: people with less income (for whatever reason) drive less, turn down their thermostats, buy less stuff, etc.
Or, does the slack simply get used by other countries that are slowly extracting themselves from their parasitic relationship with the United States? In effect, does China simply focus more on its home market? Cheaper oil means potential for growth in developing countries. Perhaps we are trending away from a horse and cart model, where the tired ole consumer mule (USA) pulls the world's economic cart, into a see-saw model where cheap oil allows China's economy to rise while ours collapses. Maybe the price remains stable, or even rises because, hey, we are at peak after all, and because the up and coming nations are only too willing to grow without our permission.
It is important to note that we often do not allow for new economic models because our national ego is so huge it lolls about our collective shoulder like a Macy's Thanksgiving Day float. It is easy to see how this came about. The old annoying saw that states, "when the US sneezes, the world catches cold," says it all. We USED to be the be all and end all on the planet. But we may have reached a new peak -- peak importance. Maybe we are in decline in terms of economic relevance. Maybe we are on the bumpy plateau just before plunging relevance where we try to reestablish our bull monkey importance by fomenting wars, but the respect destroyed to get the respect returned is now negative. Bad EROEI, politically.
The real proof of this will come when the recession hits and oil prices do not plunge, but remain the same, or even rise. Can't wait to hear the economists blather on when that happens. My guess is they will blame Clinton.
Did demand drop because of higher prices? Yes, but! Demand dropped because the government intervened in the market, supporting fuel efficiency, and demand dropped because substitutes were available for a significant portion of the demand.
I believe it is reasonable to expect that this time the main response to higher prices of oil will be... higher prices for oil.
One would think that living there is not a logical choice. However, they can't build the houses fast enough.
Have you seen that chart which shows that GDP would actually have been negative since 2000 (except for 2003 I believe), if it wasn't for inflating housing values?
Scary.
If you can find it, it sums up our "economic situation" quite nicely.
http://maxspeak.org/mt/archives/001939.html
http://zfacts.com/p/318.html
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Whatever weed these condo developers are smoking, I'd love to try some. It must be that PCP-laced stuff. Probably PCP-laced jimsonweed, not grass. Smoke some of that weed developers smoke, and do a tank trip (a la Altered States) and you'll get the mother of all drug trips. Sounds like a good way to spend a Sunday! :) Just don't try it aboard your car in your deeded parking space! Is this with housing prices nuts or what?
If there is a housing bubble, it is a global housing bubble. If you ask me there is simply too much money sitting around that seeks for a place to go. Prepapare for inflation, not deflation, that's my bet...
Your comment on a global housing bubble as a result of excess liquidity is spot on. Both Australia and UK housing have declined ahead of the US this time round but the decline has been very much a soft landing rather than a crash. Should things continue fairly stable that is what I would expect for the US, but I don't expect stability to be around too much longer.
One entry found for squiffed.
Main Entry: squiffed
Pronunciation: 'skwift
Variant(s): or squif·fy 'skwi-fE
Function: adjective
Etymology: origin unknown
: INTOXICATED, DRUNK
cant say I ever heard it come out of the mouth of a scouser though ;)
A collapse in the housing market doesn't just affect home owners either. Think about the knock-on effect on the US economy of the government trying to bail out Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation), or alternatively refusing to do so. A bail out would be staggeringly expensive - dwarfing LTCM or the S&L debacle I would guess - but the alternative would be chaos. Either way the economic impact is in uncharted waters. Combine the impact of that with a stock market crash, which I would argue is right around the corner, and a deflationary depression worse than the 1930s doesn't seem so far-fetched.
The demand destruction that would inevitably result could leave us with excess oil capacity for quite some time, especially considering that other consuming countries are likely to be entering a deflationary phase concurrently. The Chinese housing bubble is starting to burst, leaving them to follow in the footsteps of Japan. Japanese banks have yet to face the worst of the consequences stemming from the aftermath of their bubble 15 years ago. The surplus they had available to burn through before really having to face the music, combined with the strength of their export markets courtesy of the US consumers of last resort, has postponed the real day of reckoning for Japan. That day of reckoning is proably quite close now. I don't know much about India, but I'd be willing to bet that the aftermath of extreme irrational exuberance would affect them and their oil consumption as well.
My company posted a 6% decrease in 4th Qtr sales compared to same store sales last year. My company is seasonally-based and makes most of it's profits from Christmas sales. I have been there almost a decade and have always posted a positive increase until this year.
We will be reducing head count in my area of around 50 people by 10 in the next month after downsizing the same over last year. My team will shrink from 8 people to 3.
Attrition has been the buzz word for the last 3 years.
How many other companies are copying this scenario? Friends at a major Telecoms company located in the same city report the same.
It's not just housing where you can hear the long, slow hiss as the air leaks out.
Tax havens (see Setser on Dark Matter a.k.a. "transfer pricing")
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/113810#readcomments
Labor arbitrage: Cheap labor in China and developing countries. Roach is one of the few economists that dares to use the term "labor arbitrage," even though everyone knows it is happening. See
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060109-mon.html#anchor0
Environmental arbitrage: China is fast becoming a massive polluter. A clean environment costs money. Lax standards attract FDI, much as NAFTA in Mexico did and still does.
Tax arbitrage: China has offered very handsome tax breaks for FDI firms, so much so that indigenous firms are complaining loudly.
Put all this together with U.S. credit being extended to the max , low interest rates, and savings down and you have a recipe for disaster when energy costs seriously begin to rise.
In short, the world economy may be functioning well in the short-term, but its serious imbalances do not need much to push it over the edge. If we are at or near peak oil, well...no more be said. The first half of this year will be very bumpy. Then the fun begins.
http://odograph.com/?p=451
Gas can be a pretty big bite, depending on what cars you set yourself up with. I could see this as the whole reason for the consumer slowdown.
When gas prices have a large increase, is that reflected in the GDP?
The same question for Retail Sales? Isn't the higher the gas, the higher Retail Sales?
I know that they are both adjusted for inflation, but what happens if the gas increase is a lot higher than inflation?
I guess the dollars and cents question is how much downstream economic activity follows gas purchases, relative to (say) Christmas shopping.
For what it's worth though, I think it may be more the psychological effect of the bite, and a wake-up call on the low levels of consumer savings.
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/
You'll find links to specific aspects top right of that page, the direct link to GDP is:
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/article/id=344
A few relevant quotes:
You should also read about the CPI:
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/article/id=343
Although GDP uses a different inflation measure, called the "GDP deflator", it is based on the "Core CPI"
Further good reading about CPI here:
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/0624.html
Gas and energy price increases are factored out of the GDP deflator and CPI Core figures.
I sure hope that you are backing up your links onto a removable media (from your computer).
You always seem to have links to everything.
Rick
http://odograph.com/?p=100
I really must organise my many thousands of links and upload important subsets as an online files for people to download and use. If anyone here has already devised a convenient way of doing this I'd appreciate suggestions.
Description follows. You could have a "public" list of folders that you send TOD people to. Plus you don't have to worry about backing them up.
"Favorites, or bookmarks, can be extremely useful in providing quick and easy access to web sites you visit regularly, or web sites where the web address cannot easily be remembered. The problem is that you may build up several sets, one at work, another at home, and another on your notebook. This can be frustrating if, for example, you find and bookmark a web site at home and need to access it at work. It can also be an issue if you have to use another computer, maybe a friend's, or when in an Internet Café.
With My Browser Favorites you can manage favorites online, allowing them to be accessed wherever you have an Internet connection, whether that's at work, at home, on a notebook, or in an Internet Café.
All you need to do is register. It's very quick and very easy, and above all its FREE! "
Rick
Is that true at $2.50-3.00 gas?
I'm sure the numbers will catch up on this, but I think something big happened, that as yet is unquantified. What number should replace 23%?
And of course what psychological effect did that have on the consumer?
CPI-U +3.4%
C-CPU-U +2.8%
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
John Williams' articles date from from around September 2004, I think the oil price was about $40 then, gas maybe around $1.70? He calculates that CPI-U is inderstated by about 2.7% st that time. You will probably need to trawl thoroughly through the BLS site to find some info on exactly how the CPI etc figures are calculated, they seem to hide such info well but it is probably there somewhere!
http://www.bls.gov/
That seems high to me, so I need surveys that will tell me about what car choices people at the various income levels have made over the few previous years, and how that affects them now.
People at lower income levels should have the most efficient cars, but we enter a fuel crisis with the cars we have (to paraphrase the defense department).
I'm thinking people would restructure before it got that big ...
Actually, I think I'm not going to try to call this one ... I'll wait for survey data (or similar).
Amazing how simple calculations speak volumes!
economy is not just an American
phenomenon. Here in NZ, the economy
has many of the same the symptoms
-gross imbalance in the trade
account, stalled or falling house
prices, rising unemployment and of
course rising energy costs. The UK,
Australia.....dozens of countries
are caught in the same boat. We
should anticipate demand destruction
thoughout the western world, leading
to reduced international trade for
many regions. That is likely to lead
to further contraction of economuic
activity in all nations that do not
have secure energy supplies.
The other aspect nopboody sems to
have mentioned is the completely
idiotic nature of GDP anyway. An
increasing GDP figure is a measure
of how quicly a nation is destroying
its own environment and the planet
in general. GPI, Geniune Progress
Index indicates that western
societies have been going backwards
since about 1975!!
I still think this chart suggest we are very near a recession/high unemployment. Each of the last 4 price spikes in oil have been followed by high unemployment.
Rick
I suspect the problem is where you are uploading them. You need to find a different site to host your images.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/1/28/122315/558
No mention of the Iranian oil bourse, but he does think the U.S economy is headed for big, big trouble.
There is some excellent, informated, and documented discussions on all sides of the issue of the US economy. There are world class economists who are very pessimistic. I have not made up my mind, but do think that these points can be substantiated beyond mere speculation.
But the IOB fear is without grounds and without any support in the mainstream economic community.
At the beginning of 1998, the firm had equity of $4.72 billion and had borrowed over $124.5 billion with assets of around $129 billion. It had off-balance sheet derivative positions amounting to $1.25 trillion, most of which were in interest rate derivatives such as interest rate swaps. The fund also invested in other derivatives such as equity options.
.
.
This undermines the claim of efficient market theorists that markets must converge instantaneously to efficient prices because of the action of rational investors who will immediately take advantage of pricing anomalies in markets. Markets are not perfect devices - they consist of people entering into contracts based on expectations. When unexpected events depress confidence, investors panic and reason goes out the window. When this took place in 1929, the stock market crash that followed led to the Great Depression.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market
"It is a common misconception that EMH requires that investors behave rationally. This is not in fact the case. EMH allows that when faced with new information, some investors may overreact and some may underreact. All that is required by the EMH is that investors' reactions be random enough that the net effect on market prices cannot be reliably exploited to make an abnormal profit. Under EMH, the market may, in fact, behave irrationally for a long period of time. Crashes, bubbles and depressions are all consistent with efficient market hypothesis, so long as this irrational behavior is not predictable or exploitable."
Hence the claim quoted by Rajiv: This undermines the claim of efficient market theorists that markets must converge instantaneously to efficient prices because of the action of rational investors who will immediately take advantage of pricing anomalies in markets is a false and misleading description of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
My point was that the dollar faces many huges risks, but the Iran Bourse is not one of them. How is the EMH related to this in any way?
I would like to see a plot of K over time. That is, fit US or global production to a Hubbert model, and get the K for every year since 1950.
This is similar to the last vertical line on your "stability" plots.
Then try extrapolating K vs. Time. Maybe this will give a good estimate of the "ultimate" K value.
Same thing with recoverable reserves.
Reason is simple: we don't produce almost anything material in this country. The source of growth for the last couple of decades has been the services sector. As long as services, intelectual property etc. do not require (or require minimal) natural resources their "growth" is constrained just by the internal demand which is set to also grow. We simply import (largely on credit) everything we really need, circle growing amounts of paper inside and call that "economy".
If they are predictive then that's a big step forward and you could get rich off it. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, cme.com, runs a betting market the morning before the GDP is announced. This last week, the market predicted that GDP growth would be announced as 2.7%. That is closer than the economic consensus (which was 3 point something) but of course far higher than the actual value of 1.1%. If your miles-traveled model gave you a reliable indication that the conventional wisdom were wrong, you could play this market and make a real killing.
If the miles-traveled relation is merely proportional rather than predictive, then it is not so helpful because in general you will not know the miles traveled in the 4th quarter any sooner than you would know the GDP figure. So it would give you no advantage.
In this case, you had miles-traveled in the 3rd quarter being flat or down from the previous year, while GDP was way up. Then in the 4th quarter, GDP was nearly flat. So that does look predictive, at least in the sense that GDP could be forced to revert back to its miles-traveled proportionality, once it moves slightly away from the usual relationship.
It would be interesting to go back and look at quarterly GDP announcements, comparing them with the most recently available (at the time) miles-traveled figures, and see how close you could come to predicting GDP. Then, ideally you would compare that with consensus expectations of what GDP would be and see if your model were better; but unfortunately it will probably be hard to go back and find out what those expectations were. The CME GDP betting market data would be one source of expectations, but unfortunately that only goes back a year or so.
"Americans' personal savings rate dipped into negative territory in 2005, something that hasn't happened since the Great Depression. Consumers depleted their savings to finance the purchases of cars and other big-ticket items.
The Commerce Department reported Monday that the savings rate fell into negative territory at minus 0.5 percent, meaning that Americans not only spent all of their after-tax income last year but had to dip into previous savings or increase borrowing.
The savings rate has been negative for an entire year only twice before _ in 1932 and 1933 _ two years when the country was struggling to cope with the Great Depression, a time of massive business failures and job layoffs."
More:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/30/AR2006013000262.html
If the economy does turn sour, a lot of people are going to be very ill-prepared for it.
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow issued a warning recently that the U.S. Government is on the verge of collapse - as the statutory debt limit imposed by Congress of $8.184 trillion dollars would be reached in mid-February - the government would then be unable to continue its normal operations. Considering the current total U.S. debt stands at $8.162 trillion dollars, once the official debt ceiling ($8.184 trillion) is reached, the U.S. government's credit abroad (its borrowing power) is gone. Those countries (mainly China) who presently keep America afloat by holding U.S. Treasury Notes, will most likely no longer continue doing so.
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Media/PR010606
Of course you are right, but it won't get you anywhere. I tried responding to this line of discussion with logic as well. Apparently it is too much fun to just throw around the same old assertions and any information that gets in the way is discarded.
http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006/1/28/124116/907/65#65
I have never claimed that the willingness of others to invest in the US is permanent, or that the heavy dependence on these flows of funds won't end in tears.
My objection is to the inaccurate treatment of the debt as charity that could be easily withdrawn on a whim. My linked comment above makes the exact claim that you do regarding the role of the Chinese consumer market.
I am not sure the Chinese domestic market will ever dwarf that of the US, but neither do I think dwarfing is required to stop the flow of funds. I do agree that it is impossible for the US to continue to consume at current rates forever.
As I have frequently said, there are many ways to view the current imbalance. A lot of people smarter than me say it is going to end in disaster for the US. I don't dispute them. But I do think it is important to build a logical and accurate platform for the argument.
On the other hand, I look at the housing bubble (safe to call it that now), a full year of negative savings rate in the US, and climbing energy prices ... and I wonder (as a long-shot) how fast things could change. Could an "American Economic Flu" hasten a shift in wealth?
(I'm not sure how far the term "logic" applies in making such fuzzy statistical projections. I certainly have no equations to back them up.)
I do feel very certain that an unwinding of current positions by Asian (or oil exporting) holders of US bonds could not be done in the short-term in a way that is not mutually destructive. Right now I hold that China would be hurt worse. But I do think this is changing.
My guess is that this economic mutually ensured destruction will hold the house of cards together much longer than many others do.
I don't think the effect will be instantaneous, I expect a stepped economic collapse as attempts to mitigate result in brief stable plateaus, but I could be wrong - there is a risk that it will all happen very fast.
My guesstimate is that there is a 20% to 25% probability of it beginning in 2006, growing cumulatively each year thereafter by a similar risk = 40% to 50% in 2007 etc.
I do agree with this:
"There are too many imbalances (by which I mean mostly economic) and the tightrope is now very, very thin and high. A mis-step or significant event and literally almost everything could come tumbling down. A failure at one point will almost certainly cause multiple systemic failures throughout."
There are certainly enough imbalances that it is easy to map out a pathway to a crash.
I still think it is to the advantage of all parties concerned that the current situation drag on for a while. I think China in particular has a lot to lose if it all goes up now. China is about halfway through a remarkably successful effort to rebuild the power of their nation, which is a long-term project. Developing country economies are more volitile and fragile than developed countries - and China is no different. However, I do think this could change in the future.
My assessment is that if the current imbalance is shattered in the next five to ten years, no one benefits. After that, perhaps China could build a stong enough base to intentionally pull the rug out from under the US. But ten years is a long time and a lot could happen.
China would probably like another 10 years, perhaps more, of approximate economic status quo before they challenge US economic supremacy. Apparently they expect peak oil to happen around 2012. Now, should it come sooner they will have a dilemma: is it more in their interests to keep the status quo or to encourage an economic depression to reduce energy demand which will probably impact China significantly less than US?
Besides, I expect events to precipitate dramatic change well before that dilemma needs resolution. :-((
China and india share energy protectionism, among others - both are afraid to pass on world energy prices to their citizens, reducing energy conservation (badly needed in both) as we approach/pass peak oil. Either or both economies might easily stumble before approaching the US gdp.
This is a very interesting article (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/257094_studentloandebt26.html). I would say that this is another evidence of shrinking economy.