The gas supply situation is not getting much clearer

The situation in regard to who has enough gas to supply whom, is getting just a little hard to follow in the area around Georgia.  The other day I had noted that Iran was supplying gas to Georgia to make up for the losses due to the pipeline explosion.  Now I read that Iran is having problems with meeting it's own demands for gas, due to the winter, and has cut supplies to Turkey.
Iran had raised the gas it pumps to Turkey to 10 million cubic metres, still well short of the 26 million cubic metres a day previously agreed between the two neighbours.

Last week Iran cut the flow to 5 million cubic metres a day, but the supply subsequently rose to 8-10 million cubic metres before falling again to 5.48 million on Wednesday.

Iran says it had to reduce its exports because harsh winter weather has raised consumption at home.

And so who is helping Turkey out (since it has reached the point that it is starting to close factories and redirect supplies). Remembering that Russia has had to reduce supplies to Europe, now for the eighth day, because of the severity of the temperature drops in Moscow and points East, guess who?
Russia, the biggest supplier of natural gas to Turkey, has stepped in to help cover the shortfall.
And, recognizing the threat to supply, Hungary and Croatia have signed agreements to install an LNG terminal on the Adriatic, and Poland is giving serious thought to the idea.  (Which, apropos yesterday's post, will require even more tankers be built.) In the meanwhile Ukraine continues to take gas from the pipeline transiting gas to Europe, in quantities above the levels agreed.
Interestingly, talking about who supplies what to whom, the IEA nations have agreed a willingness to provide emergency supplies to the needy should Iran or Nigeria have supply disruptions.  There is not a lot of talk of other nations stepping in to increase output to cover the shortfalls.  

Demand for crude into China is being projected as increasing by some 650,000 bd as new refineries come on stream. This will likely absorb a lot of the increase in production we might anticipate coming from the Middle Eastern members of OPEC. At the same time Saudi Arabia is helping to fund additional refineries capable of handling heavier crudes that are also more sour. Which is another comment on what oil will be coming from SA in the future.

Thanks for the post, HO. I really only have one comment, which I believe describes the regions you are talking about now but extends into future supplies to regions elsewhere in the world.

What a mess this is!

This is one of those historical situations where events are not anticipated, happen faster than expected and create great turmoil. Who knows what the longer term fallout will be?

Just an after thought--Edward Gibbon's Decline And Fall of the Roman Empire. OK, that's probably not quite the case yet but we're getting there, aren't we?

"A tantalizing conspiracy of cognitive avoidance is common to the actor and his target. the actor does not wish to see himself as ingratiating; the target wants also to believe that the ingratiator is sincere" (p. 236).

If we believe our own lies it is much more difficult to be caught, because we are not making conscious efforts to lie. Furthermore, moral codes and laws punish the conscious lie much more stringently than the "honest" error

Social evolution and social influence: selfishness, deception, self-deception

Mario F. Heilmann
University of California at Los Angeles

US warns India over Iran stance

I was wondering what India was doing.  India wants Iranian energy
and a truce with Pakistan (for pipeline transit) more than nukes from the US. (My Edit-India probably saw what the US had to offer during their last war games and decided they had just as good already).

Tie this in with Baku being able to transit HC's thru Iran, bypassing
Turkey and Israel.  And Kuwait, SA, the UAE, Iraq, Iran having
300 billion bbls less than thought.

It is argued that self-induced stochastic resonance may offer one
possible scenario of how noise can robustly control the function of biological systems.

In summary, we have shown that a vanishingly small noise in excitable systems
with strong time-scale separation can induce a transition to a limit cycle
behavior.-Self-induced stochastic resonance
in excitable systems
Cyrill B. Muratov

As with Independence Day and the Aliens using a cycle down code to zero(for start of invasion) so the system is relaxing to equilibrium.

Much as the sandpile looks to be in great shape just before the next
falling sand particle creates the avalanche.

The smooth transition started on 121200,  the asymptotic point was 031703, and decline into the Olduvai Gorge begins...

Note the pattern--export capacity is being squeezed from two directions, by increased domestic consumption and by declining production.  I think the same thing is going to happen to the oil markets this year, resulting in a ferocious shortage of oil export capacity.

Consider the math.  Assume a country producing 20 BCF per day, consuming 10 BCF and exporting 10 BCF.  Assume that production drops by 25%, or 5 BCF.  Therefore, a 25% production decline results in a 50% drop in exports.

The same for oil!

This a matter we'll have to look carefully in the future: Peak Oil Exporting.

I think Iran cut the supply of natural gas to Turkey by 80% for political purposes. In December Porter Goss of the CIA was in Turkey and we want intelligence from Turkey and an understanding in regards to Iran. Turkey edged our way, and this is Iran's way of saying F* U.

The election of Hamas in Palestine needs to be watched closely as they do get some money from Iran. If they do not change their philosophy, the 4th way in politics, a sort of Islamic end-of-the-world fundamentalists, that fence will be a very tall wall. If Israel feels that threatened they will do something as they will do all they can to avoid another holocaust. And this clearly has very little to do with oil in the Middle East for motivating a party in that area if the world.

Which countries are going to supply LNG to Europe to replace piped Russian gas?  It seems that mode of delivery is being confused with supply.  Also, the LNG is going to cost at least double the $240 per tcm that they are currently paying for the  "unreliable" Russian gas.
yes, the fsu and former eastern bloc countries still receiving heavily discounted natural gas from Russia are going to be in serious trouble soon. as the nat gas market becomes more like the crude oil market everyone will be expected to pay the "going rate", either on a spot or futures contract basis. for the countries with access to LNG terminals, their only hope is to negotiate long-term supply at favourable rates. but surely, if the UK is in trouble, these less affluent places are really playing against the odds.
I can't wait until the phenomenon called "hoarding" starts.
How does one hoard natural gas?
Turn it into fertilizer or aluminum first.
my kitchen stove runs off a 15kg "butane" gas bottle, whenever i see one of these being thrown away I toss it in the back of the van and exchange it for a full one, last one cost about $20 (i'm in uk)

that will last me for about 10 months (i dont cook meat)
so now i have 3 of the babies sat in the garden shed.

I also rotate some food stuffs so there is 10kg of pasta, 15kg of Lentils, 200 assorted tins.

all this stuff has shelf life of 2-3 years (cost under $160) so is just a case of rotating your own stock, its pointless going out to do a mass shop when TSHTF

You can sequester it into the ground
if you don't have gas storage tanks
or pipelines to fill.
Of course, this is limited, but a lot
of places have underground storage
facilities for quite a lot of gas.
Guess you just leave it into the ground.
And now Chechnya has no gas supply...