MMS Update
Posted by Prof. Goose on September 8, 2005 - 1:03pm
Charles, in the comments of a couple of posts back asks a very good question:
I'm wondering if anyone else caught today's shut-in statistics at http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0908.htm. It seems that there's actually more oil shut-in today than there was yesterday; 60.12% as opposed to 57.37% yesterday.Also, let's not forget about the GOMEX predictions of 85.6% shut-in for <10days, 50.1% for 10-30 days, and 26.1% for 30-60 days and 21.1% for >60 days. (NG was 59-29-12-4 over the same intervals).Also, they've stopped reporting the 'good news' of production improvement. No surprise there. The data that I have look like this:
Oil shut-in: 9/5 - 69.57%, 9/6 - 58.02%, 9/7 - 57.37%, 9/8 - 60.12%
Gas shut-in: 9/5 - 54.13%, 9/6 - 41.60%, 9/7 - 40.36%, 9/8 - 40.20%
When Ivan shut in stats stalled, they stalled for over a week if I recall correctly. This year, the stall may be happening at much higher levels of shut-in.
I still would like to know if shut-in contemplates only production or also takes into account delivery from off-shore to on-shore. Productive platforms that can't get product to land won't be useful.
For nat gas, the percent shut-in declines very slowly after post-landfall day 8.
The curves look very similar so far for Katrina, except that the recoveries hit the wall at day 9, at much higher levels of shut-in oil (60% for Katrina vs about 28% for Ivan) and gas (40% for Katrina vs about 20% for Ivan).
I heard that DoE announced, on 9/7, that GoM production would be back to normal by the end of November. Was this a laugh line, or did they fail to mention which year on purpose?
Today's FT - in addition to the previously linked story re orders to delay refinery maintenance - had this on an inside page -
let's see - 20% of 2mbd=400kbd gasoline - not much more than a drop in the bucket in comparison to the refinery output shut-in
Rigzone reports that the the Nigerian Association of Explorationists (catchy title there) are concerned that reserves aren't being located as rapidly as the gov't wants - seems they stalled at 35 Bbbl, and gov't wants them to get to 40 Bbbl - and one other note I hadn't seen elsewhere
A few more Swiss chalets are on order.
Staff Reporters
"As oil field workers report natural gas bubbling from broken pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. Department of Energy predicted Wednesday that tightening supplies this winter could increase household expenditures for natural gas by about 70 percent, compared to last winter."
Says it all
"MMS said the shut-in figures did not change due to an actual decrease in production, however, but because a company that had previously not been able to do so reported production data Thursday. "
which seems to say they have a default of assuming production is OK which is a little odd.. and then the question is how many other companies are still to report. At this point, would a company not reporting be more likely to be shut-in or not?
which could have been a reasonable explanation for why their numbers went up today (company failed to report today), but if the AP report is saying they went up because a company did report today that seems like either the reporter misunderstood or else there is bogus data in the report.
http://www.spe.org/spe/jsp/basic/0,,1104_3306579,00.html
Does someone have the current daily consumption for gas in the U.S.?
It also states that "The department of the interior's oil minerals management service (MMA) [sic] said that 70% of the Gulf of Mexico's oil output and 54% of its gas were still closed off because of Katrina."
Officials should encourage us to conserve atleast a certain percentage of the shortfall in the GOM. But I am afraid our leaders are too busy trying to profit once again on the tragedy of our nation's citizens.
Who obtained no-bid contracts for the aid /relief efforts promised by congress?
How about Haliburton and the same profiteers of our recent wars abroad...
Yesterday, the EIA released its weekly natural gas storage report. For the week ending Sept. 2nd, a total of 36 Bcf was added to storage, compared to a typical amount of 60 Bcf for this time of year. In the Gulf coast region, storage actually went down by 6 Bcf.
This report only includes a few days of post-Katrina production, so we are likely to see an even weaker report next week. Total stocks of 2669 Bcf are slightly above the 5 year average of 2547 Bcf, but another month of lost production would bring us down below average.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/09/gasoline_demand.html
"....The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration said yesterday that stores of gasoline last week fell below the average range for the period, in a time when refineries are running flat-out to meet demand, after the hurricane knocked out Gulf Coast refineries. Meanwhile, the U.S. Coast Guard said yesterday that 52 energy-production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were missing and 58 were damaged by the hurricane, nearly double the report of missing or damaged platforms Tuesday." (Quote is from Sept 9 Wall Street Journal)
So now we're up to 52 platforms missing.