MMS Update

Charles, in the comments of a couple of posts back asks a very good question:
I'm wondering if anyone else caught today's shut-in statistics at  It seems that there's actually more oil shut-in today than there was yesterday; 60.12% as opposed to 57.37% yesterday.

Also, they've stopped reporting the 'good news' of production improvement.  No surprise there.  The data that I have look like this:

Oil shut-in:  9/5 - 69.57%, 9/6 - 58.02%, 9/7 - 57.37%, 9/8 - 60.12%

Gas shut-in:  9/5 - 54.13%, 9/6 - 41.60%, 9/7 - 40.36%, 9/8 - 40.20%

Also, let's not forget about the GOMEX predictions of 85.6% shut-in for <10days, 50.1% for 10-30 days, and 26.1% for 30-60 days and 21.1% for >60 days.  (NG was 59-29-12-4 over the same intervals).
Some time ago I posted a quick summary of shut in % for Ivan last year; the pattern we are seeing now is similar - the relatively minor damage - quick hits - gets fixed first; then the harder stuff.

When Ivan shut in stats stalled, they stalled for over a week if I recall correctly. This year, the stall may be happening at much higher levels of shut-in.

I still would like to know if shut-in contemplates only production or also takes into account delivery from off-shore to on-shore. Productive platforms that can't get product to land won't be useful.

If you plot the MMS data for Ivan, you'll see a rapid decline in percent of oil and gas that's shut-in for the first 8 days after Ivan's landfal. After that, the oil percent shut-in stays flat for the next 30 days, after which it declines much more slowly, with 8% still shut-in after about 150 days.

For nat gas, the percent shut-in declines very slowly after post-landfall day 8.

The curves look very similar so far for Katrina, except that the recoveries hit the wall at day 9, at much higher levels of shut-in oil (60% for Katrina vs about 28% for Ivan) and gas (40% for Katrina vs about 20% for Ivan).

I heard that DoE announced, on 9/7, that GoM production would be back to normal by the end of November.  Was this a laugh line, or did they fail to mention which year on purpose?

Perhaps OT -

Today's FT - in addition to the previously linked story re orders to delay refinery maintenance - had this on an inside page -

Oil and petrol prices rose yesterday as the International Energy Agency, the industrial countries' oil monitor, revealed that petrol would make up less than 20 per cent of the emergency stockpile 2m barrels a day release approved last week.

let's see - 20% of 2mbd=400kbd gasoline - not much more than a drop in the bucket in comparison to the refinery output shut-in

This one is definitely OT -

Rigzone reports that the the Nigerian Association of Explorationists (catchy title there) are concerned that reserves aren't being located as rapidly as the gov't wants - seems they stalled at 35 Bbbl, and gov't wants them to get to 40 Bbbl - and one other note I hadn't seen elsewhere

The talks on a new MoU are expected to produce a new agreement to replace the existing one formulated in 2000.

Under the existing MoU, the government takes all the revenue above $30/barrel.

"At the time the MoU was being crafted, nobody believed the price of oil could reach $30/barrel, let alone surpass it," said an official of an oil major Thursday.

The official said although the price of oil is much higher currently than the benchmark price in the existing document, the current provision should be retained.

"In a cyclical industry such as this, we know that prices would always go up and come down," said the official.

A few more Swiss chalets are on order.

Staff Reporters

"As oil field workers report natural gas bubbling from broken pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. Department of Energy predicted Wednesday that tightening supplies this winter could increase household expenditures for natural gas by about 70 percent, compared to last winter."

Says it all

the AP reports this answer for the increased shut in:

"MMS said the shut-in figures did not change due to an actual decrease in production, however, but because a company that had previously not been able to do so reported production data Thursday. "

which seems to say they have a default of assuming production is OK which is a little odd.. and then the question is how many other companies are still to report.  At this point, would a company not reporting be more likely to be shut-in or not?

This is odd because it contrasts with what the MMS says about its statistics:

These cumulative numbers reflect updated production numbers from all previous reports. The reports only represent input received by 11:30 a.m. CDT. If a company does not report by 11:30 a.m. it is not included in the special information release, but it is included in the cumulative shut-in production. This may result in an apparent increase in the cumulative report amount.

which could have been a reasonable explanation for why their numbers went up today (company failed to report today), but if the AP report is saying they went up because a company did report today that seems like either the reporter misunderstood or else there is bogus data in the report.

HI Guys. Wondering if anyone is looked at the latest prediction for peak oil at the link says "oil production outlook" . Other than a bit more optimistic decline rate I could not find anything wrong. what am I missing?
I'm no expert at deciphering these charts, but it seems that they are including Bitumen, CTL. etc.  I presume they are also including that heavy, sulfurous oil they can't presently sell.  Even so, their Peak estimate is only eight years out.
A glossary for those of us that thought shut-ins were old folks:,,1104_3306579,00.html

Why in hell are Nymex sweet crude prices falling? Talk about the traders market out of touch with reality...
How about the 'efficient market hypothesis'? It postulates that market prices reflect all the information available.  If true, then we can roll the dice for tomorrow.  Where I think the hypothesis fails is in pricing commodities and stocks months and years out.  Crude oil futures are currently priced at $60.56 for December, 2011.  I would expect that most of us at TOD think that's ridiculous.
Using U.S. oil demand of 20.4 mbd (not positive of my number here), then the current oil shut-in in the Gulf is approximately 4.5% of daily consumption.  Or, from another perspective, around 1% of current world consumption must be met from increased production elsewhere (or reserve release).

Does someone have the current daily consumption for gas in the U.S.?

I mean natural gas, to be clear.
Not sure this is new information here, but a Sept. 9 article in the Guardian on the environment damage caused by Katrina, (,16441,1566152,00.html) mentions that "According to the US coastguard, 37 shallow oil platforms are missing from the Gulf and another 20 have been badly damaged, including four deep-sea ones." This would seem to corroborate further the information provided by an anonymous industry insider to The Oil Drum on Aug. 31st.

It also states that "The department of the interior's oil minerals management service (MMA) [sic] said that 70% of the Gulf of Mexico's oil output and 54% of its gas were still closed off because of Katrina."

The market is probably falling due to the release of SPR's there will be no shortage this month so the pressure is off. I think the market is expecting a glut as the GOM production come back early along with SPR oil. I dont think they are right which creates a buying opportunity:)
I liken the situation to the the band playing on while the Titanic sank, pretending that everything is okay.  Everything may SEEM okay for this month, yet we are walking on very thin ice (sorry for bad titanic pun).

Officials should encourage us to conserve atleast a certain percentage of the shortfall in the GOM.  But I am afraid our leaders are too busy trying to profit once again on the tragedy of our nation's citizens.

Who obtained no-bid contracts for the aid /relief efforts promised by congress?  

How about Haliburton and the same profiteers of our recent wars abroad...

conservation is a dirty word ... and it's not very practical, according the the new york times
Oil prices, and all market driven prices are, sadly, priced at the marginal unit - If Saudi Arabia pumped every last drop they could right now and created a situation where global supply exceeded global demand by a couple mil bpd, oil would go down to $30/bbl, with nary a thought to the fact there will be less left in future years... our entire mkt mechanism is priced for near term consumption and predicated that growth/technology will find a solution before the day of reckoning. What this means is huge volatility for oil future prices - unfortunately, a 'long only' investment in oil futures will have precipitous drawdowns before eventually quadrupling. 2011 futures at $60? They probably see a range of $30-$300 between now and then. All depends on the marginal barrel....
Weekly Natural Gas Storage is down  

Yesterday, the EIA released its weekly natural gas storage report.  For the week ending Sept. 2nd, a total of 36 Bcf was added to storage, compared to a typical amount of 60 Bcf for this time of year.  In the Gulf coast region, storage actually went down by 6 Bcf.

This report only includes a few days of post-Katrina production, so we are likely to see an even weaker report next week.  Total stocks of 2669 Bcf are slightly above the 5 year average of 2547 Bcf, but another month of lost production would bring us down below average.

Did y'all see this?

"....The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration said yesterday that stores of gasoline last week fell below the average range for the period, in a time when refineries are running flat-out to meet demand, after the hurricane knocked out Gulf Coast refineries. Meanwhile, the U.S. Coast Guard said yesterday that 52 energy-production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were missing and 58 were damaged by the hurricane, nearly double the report of missing or damaged platforms Tuesday." (Quote is from Sept 9 Wall Street Journal)

So now we're up to 52 platforms missing.