Oh(phelia), please not again...

NOAA has no idea where she's headed, but the GOM is a possibility.  Have a look at the five main models they use...just something to keep an eye on.  Forecast discussion below the fold. (thanks Aaron D.)


EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 7th, 2005 Release
(Next Update: October 12th, 2005)


Because considerable uncertainty remains regarding the specific extent of Katrina's damage, it is difficult to provide a single forecast for the upcoming winter and subsequent months as we typically do in the monthly Outlook. More detailed damage assessments should be forthcoming over the next several weeks, which should clarify our forecast.

I just noted today on my blog that there are only six names left to assign to Atlantic storms this season.  They weren't kidding when they forecast it to be "active."

Looks like we'll have a day or two before Ophelia decides which way to turn, if at all.

GreenCarCongress has a good post with stats about the number of hurricanes in the past years:


Meanwhile, the DOE states we should regain all oil and gas production by November.  On my calendar that gives them only eight weeks or so to finish making repairs in the gulf and replace those missing platforms and hubs...

But barring an unusually slow pace of repairs, the agency said domestic oil production should return to just under 5.4 million barrels a day in November, the level it was in August before Hurricane Katrina disrupted most of the Gulf production and knocked out ten Gulf coast refineries.

The EIA said U.S. refining capacity also should rebound with an anticipated output of gasoline and other fuels of nearly 16.4 million barrels a day in November, the same as the August levels.

Even in a slow recovery scenario a "return to normal operations .... is (expected to be) achieved or nearly achieved by December," said the EIA in a report issued Wednesday.

But he added, "the infrastructure has been coming back more quickly" than had been expected.
I received this from Kinder-Morgan (Plantation Pipeline owners):

Title: Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Reports Seven of Its Nine Hurricane-Affected Terminals in Service; Remaining Two Awaiting Restoration of Electricity

Date: 9/7/2005 4:30:00 PM

For a complete listing of our news releases, please click here

I dont understand why the DOE are lying with 30 missing rigs Supply from the gulf will never get back to 1.5mbpd. Let alone by november. They would know this. Another arm of the DOE has forcast oil prices to be around $70 a barrel this winter. If everthing was going to be backup why the $70. Someone is lying bigtime.
I am offended you feel our government is lying.  Just because they are misguided and delusional, with bouts of fantasy, does not mean they are intentionally lying.  And besides, you are never going to get back 100% production that fast with this negative attitude about some 30 missing oil rigs that are now possible new reef material.  Where is your can do attitude?  You liberals are alway focusing on the details like number of rigs missing, number moved from wellhead, number of tugs lost, etc. etc. blah  blah, blah.  If you just ignore all of that, and stop reporting these problems, then you no longer have any problems and everything is just fine.  No one is lying, they just have a positive attitude about the situation.  Just like they do with inflation, and jobs numbers, and GDP, and just about every other number the government reports.  Hey, if someone answers the phone at the Refinery, then I say,,, good as new!!  The sooner everyone knows that everything is o.k. the better.  And if things are not o.k. in the future, well, it is obvious that it is because of negative minded people who just keep dewelling upon these trival facts like pipelines, rigs, tugs, and refineries.  If the DOE says 100% by Nov, well then take that to the bank.  But if you keep insisting upon cashing the check, then, you are spoiling the magic of the recovery.    
Way to go Eagle 9'er !!!
I agree. If we deny, then we can defy all negativities. It is only those overly realistic liberals who insist on accurate "accounting" and watching the bottom line. What we need is more fuzzy math and faith in the higher powers that provide. We who value "values" know how to evaluate the truth of the matter. Keep that positive outlook and everything will turn out A OK (for "us").
this is the earliest date in history to have 15 named storms in the Atlantic beating 1994 by 9 days.

Lots of good weather discussion on www.easternuswx.com

According to the NHC advisories and discussion, Ophelia does not appear to be a serious threat. If this storm did move over Florida into GOMEX, it likely would be weakened by this land passage and would not affect any oil & gas infratructure to the west.
Yes, it probably won't be bad . . . but Katrina started out as a small storm and had a land passage across Florida, and it turned out to be horrible.
Since I know everyone here just looooves the futures market and its predictions, how about a hurricane futures market?

Take a look at http://hurricanefutures.miami.edu/ where people can bet real money on where hurricanes will hit. Current quotes predict a 65% chance that Ophelia will make landfall on the northern Florida coastline, in the A2 or A3 regions on the map. (This isn't terribly surprising since Ophelia is just offshore in that region.)

This hurricane market is a new idea so it's not clear how useful it will turn out to be. The web site is a little rough and I haven't found a way to look at, for example, the price history of Katrina as she made her way across into the gulf. I did check it shortly before landfall and it was predicting G3 or G4 (basically the Louisiana or Mississippi coasts) which was a no brainer by that time. It would be interesting to see how soon the market firmed up on that prediction.

Anyway this might turn out to be a good alternate source of information for hurricane watchers.

The AP has put out an interesting report (via salon.com) on pipeline damage in the Gulf. Noted that widespread storm damage is making it hard to get repairs done, and emphasizing what we on this site already know: functioning platforms & refineries are great, now how do they move the product (or the feedstock)?


The following news items, taken together, really worry the hell out of me

A very good article by Sydney Blumenthal (You may need to get the free Salon day pass to read it)

"What didn't go right?"
President Bush's absurd question underscores the arrogance of an administration whose "limited government" agenda is responsible for the disastrous federal response to Katrina.


This is to be taken in the context of the following

At a news conference, Pelosi, D-Calif., said Bush's choice for head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency had "absolutely no credentials."

She related that she had urged Bush at the White House on Tuesday to fire Michael Brown.

"He said 'Why would I do that?'" Pelosi said.

"'I said because of all that went wrong, of all that didn't go right last week.' And he said 'What didn't go right?'"

"Oblivious, in denial, dangerous," she added.

In the first government estimate of Katrina's economic impact, the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office said the damage seemed likely to reduce employment by 400,000 in coming months and to trim economic growth by as much as a full percentage point in the second half of the year. The impact should be temporary, with gasoline prices declining and consumer spending rebounding, said the assessment obtained by The Associated Press.


Further from

Another storm would devastate US energy: analysts

HOUSTON (Reuters) - U.S. oil and natural gas supplies would be devastated if another strong storm hits while the Gulf of Mexico is recovering from Hurricane Katrina, energy analysts said on Wednesday.
Two hurricanes and a tropical storm were churning in the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.
The 2005 hurricane season, which lasts until November 30, has been one of the most active on record and is just reaching the traditional peak of activity in early September.

11:00 AM Thursday update:

The forecast movement of Ophelia is a very complex issue. One option is for Ophelia to move westward across central Florida and end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Another option is for Ophelia to drift north or northwestward along the Florida coast, before turning northeast away from the Southeast coast. Even if this latter option were to occur, there is still a good chance that it could loop back toward the coast next week. The bottom line is that the future movement of Ophelia will be slow, and all interests along the southeast U.S. and Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Ophelia.

linkity link

Several researchers allege that the US (and Japan / other parts of the world) is currently under attack by the use of weather modifictaion and warfare.  Has anyone here looked into these possibilities?

Interestingly, the same technology that these researchers purport to control the weather can be used to deliver the world free energy through scalar electromagnetic waves.

The notion of free energy would surely have impacts on peak oil...

No REAL researcher defend that some evil genius is using some magical machine to create hurricanes to attack the USA...that is b*** that Michael Crichton invented.

Hurricanes are thermodinamic systems and they are caused by high temepratures at the ocean surface. That is a natural phenomena and for now there is no human thecnology that can create them.

What real scientists are saying?

I made a reearch and I found this:

It is a good idea read all comments about the article. There is good info there to how hurricanes "happen" and how high temepratures are making them more stronger.

João Carlos

sorry the bad language, my native language is portuguese.


Inteligent Design isn't SCIENCE, it is religion. But "The USA enemies created a machine to hit us with hurricanes" is more stupid than ID...

Way to go Joao Carlos, tell it like it is!

People are in denial about cause and effect in the U.S. if they are separated by more than 5 minutes.  People don't want to adhere to the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) method for explanations when the reality is too uncomfortable to deal with.  They invent illogical and convoluted explanations to avoid accepting responsibility for their actions.  

It's actually Western scientists who have a flawed understading of the principles of physics, pertaining directly to electromagnetic energy and its potency.  As a skeptic myself, I am only interested in things I can prove.  We know these storms have been around for thousands of years, but these recent storms contain certain man-made signatures.  

"Others [terrorists] are engaging even in an eco-type of terrorism whereby they can alter the climate, set off earthquakes, volcanoes remotely through the use of electromagnetic waves... So there are plenty of ingenious minds out there that are at work finding ways in which they can wreak terror upon other nations...It's real, and that's the reason why we have to intensify our [counterterrorism] efforts."

(Secretary of Defense William Cohen at an April 1997 counterterrorism conference sponsored by former Senator Sam Nunn. Quoted from DoD News Briefing, Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen, Q&A at the Conference on Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and U.S. Strategy, University of Georgia, Athens, Apr. 28, 1997.)

Why would Cohen allude to a problem that does not exist in a Department of Defense briefing?  Would he not be considered a fool and be dismissed from his position?  There really is quite a bit of quality research covering weather modification and warfare.  Einstein said, "Condemnation without investigation is the height of ignorance."  Most people do not want to even consider any thought outside their comfort zone.  I'll leave a few links in case you are interested.  

There are so many and if you felt inclined to spend perhaps an hour of research into this, you'll probably be hesitant to merely dismiss weather warfare as Micahel C. novel fodder.  I could give you loads of evidence, but will need more time to put it together.



Where to begin.

Cutting Edge has an extensive section on the subject which draws from various sources.  This organization studies and reports on the New World Order from a Christian perspective.  The following is a link to their weather section.  


New World Order form a Christian Perspective...

Okay, now we know you represent that christian fundamentalists (or better, "christian talibans") that want destroy science and start a new Dark Age.

TRUE SCIENCE is made by scientists. To make true science a scientist will work with physical evidence. Meteorologists work with physical evidence and they know physic better than you that think that the Bible can teach you physic and biology and mathematics and any other science. The Bible teach morals, not science, but you evidently not learned morals from Bible because you come here to spread this BULLSSH*T. So, you aren't a TRUE CHRISTAN! You are a lunatic fundamentalist that never learn what is be a TRUE CHRISTAN!

The meteorologists (and they are TRUE SCIENTISTs while you aren't) have solid evidence that hurricanes are caused by changes at air temperature and air pressure now. There is NO PHYSICAL data showing that hurricanes are caused by eletromagnetical fields. That is nonsense and the christian talibans like to spread these nonsense to fit their lunatic views.

Let's science be made by REAL SCIENTISTS. These religious lunatics will destroy USA if they stay at power for more time.

João Carlos

Sorry the bad english, my native language is portuguese.

I appreciate your views, Mr. Carlos.  I sense from your post that you are quite offended by views of certian people as well as the individuals who espouse those views.  Perhaps this is not the appropriate forum to debate religious issues; however, I would be happy to oblige you in a discussion of such matters if you so choose.  

Although I am a Christian I did not bring up any of the topics for which you have attacked me.  I have only provided a link to source material that has been compiled from a Christian source.  Yet, I am interested in the relationship between faith and reason, as well as the polarisation of socio/political/religious groups, which you alluded to in your post.  

What is your definition of a true Christian?

(By the way, you can ready about the Weather Modification Research and Technology Transfer Act, legislation passed by the US Congress as Bill S-517 on March 3, 2005.  I believe the act goes into effect at the first of next month)