ASPO-USA in Denver...(and an open thread to boot...)
Posted by Prof. Goose on September 29, 2005 - 4:19pm
Beyond Oil: Intelligent Responses to Peak Oil Impacts, November 10-11, 2005, Denver, Colorado
Just a quick reminder that the conference registration fee increases from $200 to $250 on October 1, 2005.
Go to http://www.aspo-usa.com/fall2005/ for details.
I noticed something on the Yahoo business pages today that I think has happened before and don't know where else to post this today.
Their headline says one thing but the body of the story says a completely different thing about oil.
Here's the link. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050929/wall_street.html?.v=17
The title of the spot:
"Stocks Edge Higher As Oil Prices Fall"
But in the body text (7th paragraph) it says:
"Oil prices rose. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $66.79, up 44 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange."
I am certain this is not the first time I have seen this done. And it makes me suspicious that the headline is crafted for impact of stable oil prices to the public. Has anyone else noticed this or am I just Paranoid.
The headline was set during the day (when NYMEX oil price was lower), while the body of the article changed as the day progressed (NYMEX rose off lows to close higher).
It happens all the time, as Yahoo must re-write the front page headline while the body on the link page is (or can be) updated by the supplier (Reuters or the AP or whoever).
So, IMHO, there is no conspiracy at Yahoo! to manipulate the news.
This is probably going to become one of those original meetings, from which much will be dated in the years ahead. It's going to be fun.
It must be time for Pat Robertson to call for his head again..
I myself am not troubled by this. A region's resources are its alone to do with what it sees fit. However we can be sure that few in the inner circle that brought us Iraq would agree with this sentiment.
Chavez may well be doing this to grab power, but if the man really believes in "peak oil", and believes its not far off (i.e. within his tenure, or his successor's, as president) he's probably doing the right thing.
Discuss among yourselves.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-5311213,00.html
"Keeping crude oil below $70 is all very well, but in political terms it is a useless achievement if you cannot also keep gasoline below $100," said Barclays Capital. "There is an energy crisis, and it is likely to get worse before it gets better."
http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-29T202230Z_0 1_MOR865982_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-OIL-COL.XML&archived=False
The U.S. Minerals Management Service said Thursday that undersea pipelines carrying oil from deep sea fields to the coast may have taken more damage than first feared, potentially delaying the recovery of a quarter of U.S. output.
I've not seen anything out of the MMS stating this... any news I've missed?
http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-09-29T202230Z_0 1_MOR865982_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-OIL-COL.XML&archived=False
Regarding the analyst comment "lucky to avoid fuel shortages" we should take that with a grain of salt. Everyone in the business is on one side of the trade or another, and its a rare person who doesn't 'talk their position', exposing their biases and preferences.
Having said that, here we are, a week after shut-ins, and still essentially completely shut down in the GOM.
I agree that sometimes it can be hard to figure this issue out. I find myself going back and forth on how severe I think the consequences will be, how soon the problems begin, soft vs. hard landing,...
I always return to the solid ground of what's known, though. And since we're so far into the oil age, we do know quite a bit: The US and many other countries have peaked. We're 40 years out from the peak in global discoveries. Oil demand is out of control... I'm sure you know the drill if you've read 4000 pages.
The PO problem is real. The only uncertainties are in the timing and the severity of the consequences. As for the former, whether it happens in 2005 or 2015, it probably won't make that much difference. I haven't seen much mitigation happening yet. The latter is what gives this issue so much importance, though, and what allows so many prognosticators to try to prove that they are either prophets or fools.
Initially I discounted him, because, imho, we government contractors, in study tasks, tend to shape the facts to fit either what our government contacts have hinted they want to see, or what will provide us with follow-on funding. But in looking at Hirsch's bio, it would appear on the surface that he is above that sort of thing.
It would be nice if he were at the Denver conference. And IHS, whose headquarters are a stone's throw away, to be given a chance to defend or amend their perspective.
Anderson Cooper had coverage of the Cameron and Creole areas where the storm hit. They are total losses, with homes gone or lifted from their foundations and moved elsewhere. The only thing left in Cameron that is slavageable is their courthouse. The big difference is that western Louisiana is marshland. Without a beach to attract casinos and tourists, development was mainly agricultiral and commercial (oilfield). Tey got hammered by the surge just as completely as Mississippi, but with a much lower population density and much lower level of coastal development.
And face it - seeing a big casino boat washed up on the beach and broken in two is sensational. Seeing a lot of low income homes destroyed in a hard to access, marshy area is not nearly as visually wrenching.
J also told me that the loss of the oilfield facilities at Cameron and Intracoastal City, combined with the previous losses of Venice, Port Fourchon and Grand Isle has basically left the oilfield working out of any standing building with a working crane to load boats.
Regards
NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - BP's Plc.'s (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) 470,000 barrel per day Texas City, Texas, refinery could be down another six to eight weeks, Gulf Coast traders said on Friday.
The nation's third largest refinery was shut last week ahead of Hurricane Rita.
A BP official said he the does not have an estimate yet on when the plant will restart.
Area traders said the cogeneration plant had issues in restarting and that there was a problem with asbestos contamination at the refinery.
Sources familiar with the refinery's operations said earlier it could be "weeks" before the plant fully restarts as the company assesses damage from the hurricane and reviews safety after a series of operational problems this year.
The sources added, however, that BP may try to start up some gasoline units as early as next week.