I've noticed that the bicycling newsgroups/forums have a few people asking about how to carry groceries on their bikes (racks an panniers vs. trailers), and a few people celebrating "car free" status.  We probably can't read too much into that.  We are a sub-group that notices that a) we are already riding bikes, and b) driving is less desirable these days.  FWIW.

A gas price of over $3 makes an impression which a price of $2.75 does not. Unless prices go back up I would expect demand to increase again.

Gas "demand" levels (really, amount of gasoline shipped to the ends of the pipelines) are plotted at http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html#demand and updated every Wednesday. It will be interesting to continue watching this and see how consumption levels change if prices stay below $3.

I keep hearing all these ancedotes about people driving less, etc but I think in reality it's a lot like dieting. One day you resolve that you are going to eat less and you do, the next day you probably still muster enough will power to keep your word, but over time you make little excuses (I need it, I deserve it, etc). By the time you look at the scale, you have actually gained a little weight, even though you claim to be "on a diet". Let's wait to see the data before we believe the ancedotes or polls saying people are driving less.

You have to make wholesale changes to your life - sell the SUV, buy a compact car/hybrid, carpool, combine trips, bike/walk more, move closer to work, take mass transit, etc. You know the drill.

I consider myself and family early adopters of a car-free (or in our case, a car-reduced) lifestyle. We got into this some years ago and have made choices to reduce our need for transportation, but have also taken it a step further and equipped ourselves with tandem bicycles for ourselves so we can travel to and fro with our kids.

I mention this to underscore that we are very aware of who is doing what in our extended circle of friends, families and colleagues. Leaving out the dedicated bike folks, who were all dedicated bike folks at 20 and 30$/bbl, the only perceptible change I've noted in "regular" folks is that a few are walking their kids to school on nice days instead of driving... but rarely, and not as a result of higher prices.

I'm sure the recent rise in prices, and the talk about supply and demand over the past year or so, has triggered more than a few like-minded folks to at least consider alternatives, but I'm willing to bet, based on our experience, that very few have taken substantial measures to change their energy impact.

The poor and those who were already living on the edge of their paycheck? Yes, I can see them trading in a car, if they had one, for a bus pass, if their work/life situation allows for it.

But for the vast majority of middle-income suburbia it seems that changing attitudes stops at grumbling unless there is real hardship thrust upon them.

Higher prices have a way of causing immediate reduction and grumbling, but over time, people get used to them. Dramatically higher prices might change attitudes, but I wonder if we'll be fortunate to experience that... more likely, if Peak Oil is arrived at through a series of plateau events, we'll keep going through these shock-grumble-acceptance-use more cycles.

What would really work to change attitudes... is actual shortage.

PS: overnight, energy futures are on the rise again. NG X contract is actually a tad higher than Friday's close; both X and V contracts rose from today's lows on somewhat higher volume than today's decline showed.

There may be some sellers who wished they didn't. We'll see.

I would take the gasoline demand number quoted there with a grain of salt.  EIA primarily collects data on primary storage for oil and gas. Given all the disruption from Katrina and now Rita, there clearly has been a lot of fluctuation in aggregate secondary (gas stations and the like) and tertiary inventory levels (i.e. your gas tank), more than enough to mask the real changes in demand.  It will take a little more time to assess how much demand has really fluctuated, either due to seasonal factors, higher prices affecting usage patterns or the weather events themselves. but that 8.8 mbd demand number may or may not be indicative of anything longer term.

I wouldn't read too much into short-term numbers.  We all talk about how inelastic gasoline demand is in the short run.  Well, we're still quite clearly in the very short run.  

If you want an indicator of how spooked people are by gas prices, wait for the first few days of October, when the car sales figures for Sept. come out.  I've seen a few sporadic reports (without actual numbers) saying that sales of SUV's and pickups have flat-lined.  If this is true, and if the numbers show people moving to smaller vehicles, then we have a strong indication that drivers are actively looking for ways to conserve fuel.

Personally, I expect to see sales WAY down across the board (more so on the less efficient models), as people will be scared enough by price volatility to avoid making a major vehicle purchase or lease.

Not to be cold water, but there are some external factors here on Truck/SUV sales. The domestics have been running "employee pricing" programs for some time and so hav cleared their inventory out and "pulled sales forward" (folks who would have bought one in September bought one in July because it was "such a good deal"). Anecdotally GM dealers seem pretty cleaned out especially of full size trucks/SUVs, Ford and Dodge less so (caveat emptor: I work for a contractor to GM). GM is in starting a model change for their full size SUVs so their dealers are going to keep less inventory of the current models (since the 07s have been publicly announced some demand will be pushed back).

I've been commuting by bicycle more and more each year, so by spring I was cycling 3-4 times a week once temperatures got reliably above freezing.  Since Katrina I've been thinking of society as having a fuel emergency and have cut back on the driving much further, helped by two weeks of beautiful weather in southeastern Wisconsin.  My first thought after Rita was that this late in the year the short days and colder temperatures will tend to push the less dedicated cycle commuters back into their cars, but, really, probably there aren't very many bike commuters anyway.  For me, winter is the driving season, since snow and ice are kind of a drag.  I still have a hard time understanding that overall summer is the driving season.  I have a very clear seasonal cycle in my expendatures on gasoline, and late spring, summer, and early fall are the low part of the cycle.

I had several people talk to me about my cycling shortly after Katrina, when gasoline here was over $3/gallon, but I really don't see any particular evidence of any more cycling or any less motoring.  At the peak of prices I heard people complaining, but not anymore.  The idea that there is a real problem and we should each try to do our part to help is totally absent.