Should be easily resolvable, but we've been living such a hand-to-mouth existence for gas that finding that small amount extra could be difficult without new conservation measures. So, in the short term prices might rise again, and there will be even more pressure from elected officials to haul the big oil guys in front of committees to show how responsive (or not) the administration is.  Can the administration talk it out, or might they be forced into doing something? In other words, is the business-as-usual scenario about to change?

It interconnects with nine interstate and four intrastate pipelines: Acadian, Columbia Gulf, Gulf South Pipeline, Bridgeline, NGPL, Sea Robin, Southern, Texas Gas, Transco, Trunkline, Jefferson Island, and Sabine. The two compressor stations can compress 520,000 decatherm/d (6.3 GW) . The transportation capacity is 1.8 billion ft³/d (590 m³/s)."

http://www.worldenergysource.com/wemr/letterB_0905.cfm

HUX5 is off significantly - 1.89 down from 1.99 close Friday. A big %-wise move. Apparently someone believes they not only dodged a bullet but missed skinning their knees too.

Given the imperfect information available and low volume, I won't be too surprised to see prices all over the map today... these are the early indications only.

I, too, hate the constant spin in this country that talks about bullets being dodged just because we averted armagedeon.  

To not demand this full disclosure is to be as complicit as Humvee drivers in failing to prepare for the crisis to come -

Daneshy's argument relies on drawing an analogy between the Saudi situation on the one hand, and Prudhoe Bay/Texas on the other.  But IF the analogy indeed holds, this means that by the time the Saudis get to 3:1, they too will be in a status of decline roughly mirroring where Prudhoe is now relative to the 10mb/d they produce now.  And once they get to 12:1, Saudi production will be a relatively insignificant trickle relative to what it is now - just like in Texas.  Given that the Saudi water cut is inexorably moving from its present 60% or so to the 75% prevailing at Prudhoe Bay, Daneshy's data and analogy prove that the day is not far off where Saudi will have reached a point in its production history analogous to that of Prudhoe at present - i.e., in manifest decline.

This raises a key question:  Does the analogy between the three cases above permit one to draw a general conclusion about a correlation between a specific water-cut ratio and the exact timing of production peak in that province?  Perhaps study of the historic data coming from Texas and Prudhoe will reveal this magic number to be somewhere in the range of 60% and 75% water cut?  If so, and if the general analogy that Daneshy is appealing to in his faulty argument holds, then maybe this can be the basis for predicting Saudi peaking, based on projecting current growth trends in ITS water-cut percentage.

But where can I find out about natural gas? I, like many other, see the looming disaster that is the supply shortage of natural gas and am much more concerned about it rather than gasoline supply.

So, any idea where I find out where our NG comes from?

PhilRelig: nice come-back comments on the UofHouston guy's critique of Simmons.

Knowledge/Etc. of Bush/Cheney: I'd rather not think about these two guys, but its hard not too, with their names pushed onto you day after day, and them being at the helm of U.S. ... I have no doubt that they (well, cheney) forsaw oil/gas/energy trouble coming, as he is on record of saying, and thus the iraq war,etc. as an attempted strategy to grab?stabilize???/get .. some oil. But whether these guys really know whats going on, or have a handle on things, i just really tend to doubt. (war doesnt seem to be going so well,etc) We all are often governed by rose-colored glasses / blinders / biases we have, and I am sure they are no differant.          - Lorax73

The gasoline outlook could get worse after damage assessments at large refineries in nearby Beaumont, Texas, and Lake Charles, La., which suffered the strongest winds and worst flooding.

In a statement Saturday afternoon, Royal Dutch Shell said that its Motiva refinery in Port Arthur, with a capacity of 285,000 barrels a day, sustained damage to a cooling tower.

Valero Energy Corp. said that its Port Arthur refinery, with a capacity of 255,000 barrels a day, sustained "significant damage to two cooling towers and a flare stack." The company anticipated that "it will take two weeks to a month to implement the necessary repairs and restart the refinery."

ExxonMobil didn't provide damage assessments for its massive Beaumont refinery, which has a capacity of 348,000 barrels a day. Citgo and ConocoPhillips didn't immediately discuss damage to their Lake Charles refineries, which have capacities of 324,000 and 239,000 barrels a day, respectively. The French company Total didn't report on damage to its 233,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Port Arthur.

At the ExxonMobil Corp. Beaumont refinery, spokeswoman Kathleen Jackson said by cell phone that the refinery is beginning to call selective crews who are key to restarting the refinery when electric power finally becomes available.

From a potential damage standpoint, Jackson said, "It didn't look too bad."

She said flaring looks "pretty good," and that's a result of some product level remaining in the towers. That is there to help the refinery units return to service when power returns, but there is no prediction when that might occur."

What the Saudis face is not catastrophic decline--unless every reserve estimate going back to the Exxon/Mobil/Chevron/Texaco days was inaccurate--but the transformation of their industry to one that must drill and manage a significantly larger number of smaller (but still very large) fields.  That's where their unexploited reserves are.  I think you can raise legitimate concerns about their ability to do that without financial and technical assistance from outside the country, without disputing the reserves themselves.

In other words, the question we should be asking is not whether they have the oil they claim to have, but whether they have the plans and means of exploiting it when the need arises.

"Gasoline is flowing back into the Houston area and its main evacution routes just in time for the mass migration home.

"Drivers scouting for gasoline today are reporting success after a little persistence, while service stations, convenience stores and even grocery stores are assuring customers gasoline should arrive anytime."

"Hoping to get a jumpstart on the traffic expected to resume in earnest today, state troopers escorted tanker trunks full of gasoline to stations on Saturday and companies rushed to deliver extra fuel to gasoline-hungry areas overnight."

"The north Houston and Pasadena terminals that supply Shell stations were open again today with enough gasoline to fill up at least 30 tankers with 270,000 gallons of fuel. The tanker drivers have instructions to start with gas-needy I-45, I-10 and Highway 290.

"Exxon Mobil was bringing in tanker trucks from as far away at New Jersey and Illinois. Company officials said they delivered 531,000 gallons of gasoline to 14 retail stores in the Houston area on Saturday, the equivalent of the normal daily demand for the entire Houston market."

It sounds like the Houston metropolitan area is not facing a particularly bad gasoline situation, although the need to suddenly transport half the city's population hundreds of miles would of course strain any infrastructure. But if even Houston is OK, it doesn't sound like other areas of the country should have much to worry about.

The fact that gasoline futures prices are down again today suggests that market traders don't foresee any major supply crunch over the next few weeks and months. It will be interesting to see if TOD readers have a better crystal ball. If you guys keep beating the markets maybe you ought to try your luck, it's not everywhere that you can get rich just by being right.

They own the printing press, and as such, do not need to worry about certain things like margins requirements or losses.

Anyways, the constant reinforcement and playout of comments regarding not as bad damage (which mostly refer to the Texas City refineries and not to east texas west LA refineries) are very, very premature given how little information is available to energy consumers.  There literally isn't enough information to make confident major decisions on energy plays.

Not to mention, we have no idea what happened to the offshore rigs, and how long energy will be shut in from the GOM.  This is most definitly a sucker move in the markets.

Chevron
Chevron is assessing offshore oil and natural gas production facilities as weather permits. Initial assessments have revealed that the Typhoon tension leg platform (located in 2,000 feet of water in the Green Canyon area approximately 165 miles south-southwest of New Orleans) was severed from its mooring and suffered severe damage during the storm. The facility has been located and is being secured. Chevron has mobilized appropriate resources to address any environmental concerns. No employees are at risk. Prior to the storm, the company safely evacuated employees and contractors from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico facilities. Decisions on when production can be restarted from the company's other offshore facilities will be made when the post-storm assessments are concluded.

Reports of a gas leak in the proximity of the Henry Hub facility located in southwestern Louisiana were investigated by emergency response personnel. Two separate natural gas releases were located and secured, neither of which was sourced from Chevron's Sabine Pipe Line Company or Henry Hub.

The company also advises that its Houston offices will be closed on Monday, Sept. 26, but will re-open on Tuesday, Sept. 27. However, the company is advising employees who left Houston during the evacuation to follow plans laid out by public officials regarding their attempted return to the city.

[Note: I live in Houston, the Mayor updated his plan and told people that those who work in business that are important to the city's infrastructure should return ASAP. I think this is important.]

Rowan Companies
Rowan Companies reports that, in the aftermath of Hurricane Rita, its jackup rigs Rowan Odessa and Rowan Halifax were not at their pre-storm locations. In addition, the hull of the jackup Rowan Louisiana apparently detached from its legs and is aground offshore Louisiana. The Company was also unable to account for one rig, the Rowan Fort Worth, via a high-altitude aerial survey conducted yesterday.

The Rowan Odessa, Rowan Halifax and Rowan Louisiana were operating under contracts that provided for total revenues of approximately $210,000 per day. The rigs are collectively insured for an amount that exceeds their aggregate carrying value. The Company does not maintain insurance against loss of revenue.

GlobalSantaFe
GlobalSantaFe reported that two of its jackup rigs, the GSF Adriatic VII and GSF High Island III, could not be found on their drilling locations during a search by fixed-wing aircraft Sunday. There were no signs of any major damage from Hurricane Rita to the company's other rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

GlobalSantaFe's fleet in the Gulf of Mexico includes nine jackup rigs, four semisubmersible rigs and one ultra-deepwater drillship, the GSF C.R. Luigs. The drillship relocated before the area was impacted by Hurricane Rita, and all other rigs were safely evacuated in advance of the storm.

The rigs contributed $5.3 million of the company's total $135.3 million of net income for the first six months of 2005.

Transocean Inc
The Deepwater Nautilus, an ultra-deep water state of the art semi-submersible drilling rig, owned by Transocean Inc., broke free while attempting to run from Hurricane Rita and is now adrift in heavy Hurricane Rita seas. According to Transocean spokesman, Guy Cantwell, of the forty-five crewman that were aboard the rig, the final fourteen were safely evacuated late this afternoon. Prior to Hurricane Rita's entrance into the Gulf of Mexico, the rig was undergoing repairs to its mooring system miles south of Cameron, Louisiana. The rig was under tow to "safer" waters heading east when the rig towing bridle broke in heavy Hurricane Rita winds and seas. Transocean is able to monitor the rigs position by using onboard transponders, but will not likely be able to reattach tugs until Rita moves ashore.

The government has already agreed to loan or sell 24.2 million barrels of reserve oil to refining companies after Hurricane Katrina.

The Department of Energy said one of the stockpile's four storage sites suffered minor damage and was affected by flooding, and another site was also impacted by flooding after Rita.

A department spokesman on Monday did not know if the damage and flooding would affect oil shipments from the reserve to refineries.

Bush said a significant amount of shut oil refining capacity in Texas and Louisiana will be back on line soon, but urged American motorists to conserve gasoline where possible.