Rita Old Comment Thread 1 (Rita graphic now moved up closer to the top)
Posted by Prof. Goose on September 21, 2005 - 10:34pm
This is now the old commenting thread from when the picture of Rita was down here...the link to the graphic and the new post/comment thread is here. Feel free to use this one though...just was getting kinda long.
“Any coward can fight a battle when he's sure of winning, but give me the man who has pluck to fight when he's sure of losing. That's my way, sir; and there are many victories worse than a defeat.”
—George Eliot
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I wonder, what's the size difference with Katrina when it was around the same location?
There has been some comment that Katrina riled up the GOMEX waters to such an extent that the very deep cool water has been drawn to the surface and might have moderated surface energy avails.
I'm no scientist, so who knows what to believe....
That said, water temps are still really high all across the gulf, which is why both these storms are able to gain so much strength (compared to, say, Ophelia)
(presumably the warm water up near Nova Scotia is the result of Ophelia's rain, as the map is 4 days old)
it's south at about 40W lat.
DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888
MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB...HURRICANE ALLEN IN 1980 WITH 899 MB...AND HURRICANE KATRINA LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/212146.shtml
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED... WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/212351.shtml
The detail that has me just as concerned as Rita's category and exact place of landfall is its speed. It's crawling along, and if it hovers over the Texas coast it could do a lot of damage before it weakens or moves on.
(I lived in NE Pennsylvania during the 1972 Agnes flood, so I'm particularly aware of what happens when a storm gets locked into one area for a while.)
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
255 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2005
Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Rita has reached Category Five intensity with estimated maximum sustained surface winds of 165 mph.
NHC XML feed, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_at3.xml
NEW ORLEANS, Sept. 21 - Hurricane Rita approached Category 5 intensity this afternoon, the deadliest storm designation, as it churned through the Gulf of Mexico on a course that could send it over coastal Texas and southwest Louisiana this weekend.
Now, if the price spike turns into a long term high price, well, that might help reduce demand. But I wouldn't guarantee that.
(not to be too genral but) knowing the republicans they will probably use the huricanes as justification to drill in alaska and import more oil.
Keep in mind that oil is money and money is power and the USA wants all the power so the USA wants to use the middle east oil (before is uses its own coal or alaskan oil) to continue geopoplitical dominace
I can't wait for the day we find out that the military has been keeping its own SPR
(I know someone will ask what I think expensive gasoline is, so here's my answer: A sustained price above $6/gallon.)
How exactly are we going to subsidize oil prices? We have huge budget deficits, the mess in Iraq, and now the cleanup in New Orleans. Next we will have a cleanup in Texas.
Of course we've seen short term gas tax repeals already. What kills me is that a tax cut in response to a short term supply deficit is not at all likely to actually cut prices. Prices still must rise high enough to curtail consumption; if the state doesn't collect taxes then the refiners and distributors will pocket more of the markup. The best way to get short term prices to drop is to curtail demand - federal and state governments could ban non-emergency employee travel, or could issue employees free bus passes and require them to use the passes at least once a week.
Heck, I'm a patriotic guy. When gas goes over $3/gal I'll happily do my part to reduce demand and ride my bike to work.
So does anyone think we'll see panic buying before Rita hits the coast?
Don't forget things like the Iraq war.. That's an indirect oil subsidy, and if you don't believe it, ask yourself it this war would have happened in a country that had no oil.
getting into the war, who were the most vehement agitators of longest standing? certainly not the inhabitants of israeli american think tanks like PNAC, AEI, JINSA and AIPAC.
i know you are trying to keep focussed, all of you, but this thing is way too big to stick in one box.
and if you start factoring in sea level rise from global warming, overshoot of the natural warming cycle, and a potential sea level rise of 240 feet, you begin to see reasons why israel needs to get started on the greater israel project, now, before peak oil cripples american support for israel.
and nobody in a million years is allowed to ask himself: who benefited from 9/11, who was in position to pull it off, who was in position to promulgate the official conspiracy theory. who was in position to turn the investigations into whitewashes and coverups, and, finally, who called for "a new pearl harbor" in september of 2000 to kick off the program we now see being implemented?
So much for that thought.
Whether on not Hussein posed a real threat I agree that Iraq's oil revenues gave him the capability to follow through and without those revenues he would have been ignored.
At least our troubles in Iraq clearly demonstrate the difficulty of imposing the government of out choice on another nation. Hopefully even if neocon ideology continues to hold sway after the next election the next administration will use or not use our military might with more wisdom. I also hope the American public is wary enough of overseas military adventures that even when our oil supply problem really becomes desperate they will seek solutions within our borders. Better to sacrifice our freedom to drive around the block at will and avoid taking the bus to work than any more of our soldiers' blood. As scary as rationing is to a politician I don't see many of them favoring the blood for oil trade. But perhaps I'm too much of an idealist.
With luck, the NG situation will become an object lesson to North America, goading us to prepare for Peak Oil.
- Methanol production - Methanex, the worlds biggest producer, is closing its Kitimat BC plant - N.A. gas prices too high. They also had supply shortages in South America earlier this year when one country, a normal supplier, diverted its gas to a neighbour country to make up for shortfall there.
- Diluants - in short supply in N.A., these are waste products from NG processing which are used for processing oil sands into usable bitumen. EnCana and others looking to import these light oil distillates from off shore (still lots of NG world wide, just not usable to NA market at present)
- Cott, big private label softdrink maker, lamenting this week that plastic supplies for bottles impacted by current state of affairs.
We can find many of these stories. Eventually short falls or cost increases will make it through to consumers in the pocket book, not just at the gas station.And eventually the street (wall street) will figure it out. Three big down days in a row may be a start of that process....
The wrong way to deal with this is to say: "Oh, we don't have enoguh reffineries, that is the problem. Lets build more!"
Can one of the experts weigh in on this?
But, the Saudi's made a deal w/ the americans. give us cheap oil (i.e. keep supplies abundant) and we'll keep you in power.
but with the onset of Peak Oil, things have changed. OPEC has lost control of prices and are pumping at maximum. Oil companies have stopped exploration because they know of peak oil and in anticipation that tomorrow's oil will be less than today's oil in volume, have also stopped new refinery constructions. hence, refineries are refining at maximum. once we hit decline, oil producers will be pumping at maximum, refineries will be refining at ever decreasing capacity, thus giving oil companies even less incentive to build more refineries. but regardless of how hard people are pumping, there will be inadequate oil supply.
his first post on this
"Houston officials have capably planned for their own possible severe hurricanes, and that disaster planning is now selflessly put at the disposal of their neighbors to the east."
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles.php?article_id=4784
The way I see it, we've got a choice between destroying the gas wells in the western Gulf and destroying the refining and petrochemical infrastructure. The gas well option probably kills the fewest people, but has the highest odds of spawning tornadoes which damage/destroy the South Texas Nuclear Project.
I think the worst possible scenario (other than tornadoes ripping apart the South Texas Nuclear Project) is for the eye to come ashore at Sargent. That would put all the refining and petrochemical infrastructure (Dow Oyster Creek A and B, ConocoPhilips Old Ocean, BASF Freeport, and lots of smaller ones close on the eastern side. It also puts the narrow part of the Houston Ship Channel into the bulls-eye, blocking or silting it up, and damaging it's refining infrastructure (Shell Deer Park) and would basically wipe Follet's Island (the island to the southeast of Galveston) off the face of the earth, which would in turn expose the Intercoastal Canal to the Gulf.
Most of the chemical infrastructure in the Freeport area has a substantial levee around it, at least 15 feet high, but no one has any idea at this point whether it'll be enough.
From the latest NHC update:
...RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...
DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB...HURRICANE ALLEN IN 1980 WITH 899 MB...AND HURRICANE KATRINA LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB.
</snark>
DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
Looks to me like she's been heading a little more northwards than most of the models have been saying - could be she'll come out a little closer to the Louisiana border. Never can tell though - these hurricanes don't seem to do as they are told.
Meaning, in the next weeks we won't be worrying about gas prices if the worst happens -- we will be worrying about finding gas to buy.
I'm not seeing this (easternwx.com????) Link?
Dallas Fort Worth will be hit hard by flooding, thanks to slow movement. Texarkana AR and Shreveport LA have excellent hotel facilities, but the latter has lots of NO refugees. So evacuation ought to aim sharp west (San Antonio could escape rain problems, though get some heavy downpours and a period of strong winds) or farther northeast (Little Rock AR and Tulsa OK).
Texas is flat and low, folks. Remember that. Get these people out of there now.
http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp?Command=MAP
It will also be available in the resources post below this one.
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Page: Global Fields
Near Real-Time Altimeter(JASON-1,TOPEX,ERS2&GFO)-GTS Data
Significant Wave Height with Wave Directions
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf.shtml
for instance:
Auger (Shell platform)
Brutus (Shell platform)
Mars (Shell platform)
Brutus is already experiencing winds above 30 knots.
John Ruskin would say that treating an inanimate object as though it has thoughts and feelings is "pathetic fallacy." I agree that's unwise, but it's certainly tempting.
I mean, c'mon, how unusual is this? Two Category 5 hurricanes making landfall in the Gulf within a month? Unusually warm SSTs, increased wind shear, etc. Rita is now the third largest storm of all time! -- measured by millibars. I can already hear the hurricane people saying "nothing weird going on here..." and the climate scientists saying "you can never associate any particular weather event with climate change....".
Yeah, OK, everybody has their ass covered as the merde hits the microwave.
The "One can never prove it" line about climate change was self-conscious and very intentional ass-covering. I expected a reaction to it.
This is an academic habit that I've gotten more respect for. In academic circles, if you can prove something, do it. If you can't, and we often can't, be honest that it's an (well-founded or otherwise) opinion. Otherwise, you're open to gratuitous attack by debunkers with poor intent.
There are plenty of highly charged opinions on peak oil and climate change. I figure we need some passionate voices, and some careful, dry academic voices as well. Properly done, they complement one another (even if they rarely compliment one another ...).
I absolutely believe these hurricanes were amplified by a human-caused warmer atmosphere. I'm also virtually certain that we can't prove it--yet. In the meantime, I opine carefully.
As a European, I am amazed at the media attitude in the USA. They have really developed a consensus where no mention of the words "climate", "change" and "warming" is allowed in any combinatioin. Not on the TV, newspaper, nor even in the Internet.
That is incredible and coupled with the newly reinvigorated attacks on science on behalf of the christian fundamentalists's "Intelligent design" against evolution teaching in the schools, it is very, very sad (and very dangerous also).
The new models are compiled (the first link in the resources post below). More of a turn towards Galveston and better convergence.
The sooner Rita passes 25N, the more of a turn she will make...man oh man.
here's the REALLY experimental refining damage estimates from KAC/UCF...double digit damage is bad news for an industrial site.
Rita has slowed forward motion somewhat. This is bad. There is a high pressure ridge holding Rita in the gulf which is drifting eastwards. Rita will curve sharply to the north when it gets around the western edge of the ridge.
here
You may also be interested by the following image:
5-day plot - Live Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure for the Auger Drilling Platform (Shell)
This oil platform will probably be directly hit by Rita.
Apparently, God (Nature) is going to be really harsh on us this time... I think, looking at this data, that's it time to "Come to Jesus" with respect to our near-term energy future. Fill up your gas tanks now.
And no... I am not a religious person ... though I do believe that there is definitely something unusual going on here... see above about Climate Change. But we might as well pray at this point, that's all we can do, isn't it?