More Tools for Rita

(welcome MSNBC viewers...while there's some interesting stuff in this post, but I think they might have linked to the wrong one from the here to go the article I think they meant to send you to, or click here to go out to the front page. Either way, welcome!)

Here is a really neat tool from the KAC/UCF modeling folks that allows you to zoom in to see specific rigs in the path of Rita and a lot of other stuff including online mapping.

Here is another concern, the sheer amount of chemical processing and the damage in the Houston area, especially Deer Park.

Here is a listing of oil related facilities in LA and TX

Here is a picture of the models superimposed with the gas/oil rigs and Katrina's path (thanks billyt):

Technorati Tags: , , , ,

Heavens.  The Good Lord does seem to have about had it with our excessive oil consumption.  Or perhaps he's just invested in the oil futures market and is now driving the price up?
To believe the behavior of Katrina, Ophelia and Rita are random is foolish.
Rita is headed straight for Crawford!
Yeah, it does look like divine retribution, but I think it's human folly. The hurricanes have blown here for eons. We knew that when we decided we had to get the oil and gas out of a tempestuous place regardless of risk. We also forget history--a lot of GOM rigs and refineries went in when hurricanes were at a cyclical low, and they aren't anymore.
Thank YOU!

I don't think we need to look for divine causes to explain disasters which we know occur quite periodically.  Atlantic hurricane activity is cyclical.  Climatologists have known this upsurge was coming.  If you build in or near the coast (Gulf or southern Atlantic) you have to either build for a Cat-5 or don't blame God when you get blown away.

No retribution here.  No divine message.  At least not from any god that I would respect.  Just poor planning and cost-cutting where it can do a lot of damage.

For informed people like yourselves, looking at all this data, it is about time to organise some of the vast stream into insight, as to why it is that these storms behave as they do. And no, I'm not thinking about God.

I happen to have some exquisite pictures taken from official radars tracking Ophelia showing a neat 60 degree sided triangle, where the eye would be, said triangle showing up on visible scale and rain fall. That Ophelia was triple looping around the ocean, is, again, nothing out of the ordinary, right?

You might need a hint to organise and focus your pattern of thinking: look up what former Def Sec Cohen said about weapons that could trigger earthquakes, hurricanes and such like. Also, I paraphrase Bush's visit to NO: "It looks like the coast was it with the worst sort of weapon there is."

You do remember then, when the US invaded Iraq, a major dust storm appeared just when the invasion was in full swing?

Now, two hurricanes heading into oil producing regions and big cities, back-to-back, is what? A coincidence?

Look at noise long enough and it becomes a mirror....
MMS report for the day, production shut in rising again thanks no doubt to Rita evacs.

These evacuations are equivalent to 16.61% of 819 manned platforms and 11.19% of 134 rigs currently operating in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

Today's shut-in oil production is 877,275 BOPD.  This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 58.49% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.  Approximately 35% of shut-in oil is due to onshore infrastructure problems.

Today's shut-in gas production is 3.482BCFPD.  This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 34.82% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/20/05 is 26,000,491 bbls, which is equivalent to 4.749 % of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).

The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-9/20/05 is 120.413 BCF, which is equivalent to 3.299% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).

This chart shows that Katrina, for all the capacity it caused to be shut in, hit the eastern edge of the oil producing region, and that Rita is now headed straight for the center of that region. I guess we should just be thankful they don't have hurricanes in Alberta.
Just fires.
And the odd tornado in the Edmonton area...
After Katrina hit NOLA, I pissed off a lot of people on some local Houston boards when I suggested that NOLA or Houston might get hit in the near future. Now I just need to figure out what I want to take with me if it looks like Houston will be hit.

It doesn't take much to seriously flood here. We're between 0 and 3 feet above sea level on average. However some of the highways, feeder roads, the tunnel system downtown, and certain residential areas range from below sea level to far below sea level. There are bayous to help drain, but they are no match for serious rain.

Downtown and the highways are highly vulnerable to partial or nearly complete blockage. I was out when tropical storm Allison hit... and I never want to go through a similar experience again.

Oh the irony of life.... sigh

"Just" a tropical storm caused all that flooding? Damn. Well, I hope there's been enough time to prepare...
Well by tomorrow I'll know whether I'm going to get a Uhaul and a storage space out of town. I'm not going to take any chances. I've got 2 cats, 2 dogs, 1 mom, 3 cars, and a bunch of stuff that can't be replaced.

Allison didn't hit Houston directly. They did a study of it after it hit and determined that if it had hit us directly, the entire city would've been under water. Sort of like what happened with NOLA. What made Allison bad, as tropical storms go, was that it stalled out over the city due to a high pressure system or something of that nature.

I didn't realize it was going to hit, at least not with that ferocity. I was about to go into a club and it started pouring. We waited for it to let up and it didn't. So we got soaked running in. A few minutes later we decided to leave... and there were nearly 2 feet of water in some areas... it was insane. I never want to experience that again.

Can the moderators of this site discuss where has the oil from Europe has gone to? 14 or so tankers were headed to the US after US bought those supplies. Was it refined oil(I'm guessing it was, that's what I read), or crude? Which part of the country was supposed to receive this consignment?

I get the odd feeling that the bean counters at the big oil companies are drowning under the influx of cash just as the laundryman drowns under the influx of clothes in a multi storey apartment..

Off topic question of the day:
Remember Deffyee's story about that day in 1971 when the Texas Railroad Commission lifted caps on Texas oil production? He went home and told his wife, "That old fool, Hubbert was right after all". It was Peak Day USA.

Well this 9/19/2005 story in Washington Post seems similar:

Is this Peak Day OPEC/World?
(Damn, we did not make it even to Thanksgiving 2005.)

Yep, they just killed the quotas. Article I read says the new oil will be coming as of October 1st, apparently just about all of it from the Saudis. Looks like the peak is ever closer
A cartel is only powerful if it restrains production. It loses this power at full production and therefore becomes irrelevant. Now any producer has the power to cause a spike in prices.
I had the same thought yesterday. The Railroad Commission dropped quotas when it was clear that all the oil was needed, and they gave up any ability to control prices. Sounds familiar. The situation is not wholly identical because OPEC will release heavy sour crude that there is less demand for.

I agree it's an important milestone. I can't recall who said it, but the quote was:"The good news is that OPEC doesn't control prices anymore. The bad news is that nobody does."

I like their announcement that they will be building refinery capacity to help us out.

Like a drug dealer "I'm just trying to give you a hand"

Latest models show Rita moving further south and west, it seems.

Bloomberg story on oil dropping from highs

But to quote every weather forecaster I've read today:

"It's still way too early to know."

The NHC track does look more favorable today. However, from Hurricane guru (and climate change naysayer) William Gray CSU scientist 'very worried' about storm but skeptical of global warming connection:
Professor William Gray has spent more than forty years studying tropical weather and teaching it. He is well-known for predicting the number and intensity of hurricanes before each storm season begins.

"I am very, very worried about this storm," he says. "It has the potential to do a lot of damage especially to the oil industry." Dr. Gray says the hurricane is following the same path as 18 or 20 of the most intense storms of the past century. He calls them "Bahama busters." The storms barrel through the Bahamas building up intensity as they go. This storm is following the same path as Hurricane Katrina and there is a potential it could hit New Orleans.
It's cruel to have to wait like this, isn't it?
Bush should have had the control codes for the secret weather control satellites changed after Osama hacked them.
She's now a Cat 2... (according to news flash on CNN, "the most trusted name in news" heh)
A little bit of good news?

According to this Morning Edition story from NPR What If Another Hurricane Hits New Orleans?, meteorologist David Nolan of the University of Miami says that Katrina's passage through the Gulf actually lowered sea surface temperatures there. The reason is that Katrina's winds contributed to better mixing of Gulf waters resulting in more upwelling of colder water. If true, this will diminish Rita's ability to gain strength as it passes over the region.

On the other hand, there is this seemingly contradictory information from NHC forecaster Avila
It's hard to know what to believe about this Category 1 storm.
FWIW, the Navy site has a map of sea surface temperatures in the region.

I'm not sure what their definition of "cooled" is, but if Katrina made a difference, I guess that's a good thing.  As always, in another day or two things will become much more clear.

BTW, what is the vintage of the graphic for this post? (timestamp)

It seems they have revised the paths some, just wondering what the new map looks like.  

Educated guesses and all that...

here's the dynamic link I've been getting it from:

(this will also be at the bottom of the newest post)

Thanks, Professor...