“Any coward can fight a battle when he's sure of winning, but give me the man who has pluck to fight when he's sure of losing. That's my way, sir; and there are many victories worse than a defeat.”
—George Eliot
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Expect GOM production to be shut in again in just another day or so, with repair crews leaving unfinished the damage left by Katrina.
If Rita goes anywhere near New Orleans, I expect that area to be evacuated again fairly quickly - due to very few usable roadways remaining to get people out.
Projected path:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5_sm2+gif/144728W_sm.gif
There are two dangerous aspects to this storm.
- It may not follow its expected trajectory due west but may turn northward (to the northwest)
- High sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf may strengthen the storm as it passes -- this happened with Katrina
Let's hope neither of these things happen.What if Rita, which I expect the mainstream media to get wind of Monday, blows into Corpus Christi as some are saying, as a CAT4?
www.easternuswx.com
The GOM shut in production would increase sizeably - I expect that is why oil futures are up in night session. But, more broadly, is this an externality that the world will have to deal with? warmer weather hurricanes disrupting our energy buffet? One bad one does not a trend make,but stay tuned...
Love the web.. here's the links:
Summary: http://www.ems.org/climate/exec_pentagon_climatechange.pdf
Full report: http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/09/18/nchill18.xml
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/editorial/outlook/3358391
Learsy's thesis is that if, hypothetically, a food OPEC were formed, everybody would come down on it like a ton of bricks. Correct. However, some sort of unclear logic eventually leads him to conclude that we ought to cope with the actual oil OPEC by cutting back on oil use by fiat: "We can no longer permit the unfettered consumption of oil. Our national honor and security depend on it."
So let's take his analogy seriously and alter the proposition to fit: "We can no longer permit the unfettered consumption of food. Our national honor and security depend on it."
Now, everybody who thinks most folks in the real world would meekly submit to an actually effective food OPEC for an indefinite time, please raise your hand.
And everybody who thinks an effective and persistent food OPEC would eventually lead to conflict, war, and ultimately the conquest of one or more of the withholding food producers, please raise your hand.
So I wonder what Learsy is trying to tell us?
US Calls Nuclear Statement by Iranian President 'Very Aggressive'
Iran threatens to use oil as weapon
Unless somebody backs down in a hurry, it could be interesting watching the oil price tomorrow.
I had a chance to speak with my neighbor and ask her how things were going in life. Just a pleasant little conversation.. During the conversation I ask her if she was aware that natural gas prices for her heating bills were going to be about 40-70% higher than last winter.. She said no.. That about floored me but then I wondered how many other people are just not aware of the price increase thats coming with this winter's heating bill and what a big surprise its going to be to them.
And today prices are up at insane levels. A new contract breakout in Natural Gas - price hasn't been this high in... perhaps ever. And NEVER in the summer, before now.
CL - up 5.5+%
NG - up 10.5+%
Gasoline - up 11+%
Heating oil up 9%
and these are the gains just today. Clearly traders are deciding better to be long than do what they did pre Katrina.
Will it last... only the aftermath will tell...
They're looking for oil. This is part of the crisis that is looming in the horizon. You should know that the U.S., I already said this, 5% of the world population lives in this country and you consume 25% of the energy. That this consumption is partially rational, I am convinced that the U.S. people will wake up to the reality of things. Yesterday morning, we were coming from the airport for instance, it was the traffic jam time, it was very packed in the highway coming from the airport here. I talked to the people in my car, looked outside, looked at the cars surrounding us. Out of a hundred cars, ninety-nine were occupied by a single person, the driver only. Cars occupying the highways, and burning fuel, how many gallons of fuel were burned yesterday morning, polluting the environment? That's the extreme of individualism.
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/09/19/1336214
Its too bad that common sense often gets painted as extremism. I suspect there is much about Chavez that I would not like and could not support, but he is right about this subject... we are an arrogant species, humans, by and large but no where more arrogant than in the civilized west where we have believed that technology and innovation can beat nature and common sense.