Katrina on Monday morning

The storm has been downgraded slightly to a Category 4 and just come ashore.  Power went out in New Orleans somewhere after 5 am, but the storm, as the moving graphic back shows, is now moving more East and will likely not pass directly over the city.  It may still top the levees, possibly at Lake Pontchartrain. However some of the rigs in the GOM saw the storm at Category 5.  Ivan dropped production by 0.5 mbd for months, it can be assumed that this will be worse.

Update [2005-8-29 5:32:18 by Prof. Goose]:Gulfport and Biloxi, MS will still get a very strong version of Katrina because the storm has not spent much time over land yet; NOLA does not suffer absolute worst of storm, but the hurricane is still stronger than Andrew at landfall...and their pumps have failed, which is a very bad development.

Update at 8:55 am (HO & J) From Reuters

The Gulf of Mexico normally pumps about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of U.S. crude, a quarter of domestic output and equivalent to nearly 2 percent of global oil production. The only way we can avoid yet higher prices is if President Bush releases supply from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve," Thurtell said The administration has said in the past it would release oil from the 700-million-barrel SPR only during a serious supply disruption, but has never given further details. "The Energy Department (DOE) is monitoring the situation," an administration official said in Washington. The DOE loaned out 5.4 million barrels last year after Ivan, which shut in a total 45 million barrels before full output was restored.
And from J:
The LOOP (Louisiana Offshore Oil Port)is closed, and if damaged, will cause supertankers to be rerouted to Houston, where they barely fit in the channel. If the levee system is busted up, the river might become so filled with silt from the water returning to the Gulf that it becomes un-navigable. And yes, all the refineries in Plaquemines Parish, Chalmette, and between NO & BR are very much at risk. But for the industrial damage, everyone will have to wait until the choppers can fly for the offshore damage report, and until the water recedes enough to let people back into the refineries.I just heard that the roof of the SuperDome was peeling off, and windows were busting in all over NO downtown area. But for the industrial damage, everyone will have to wait until the choppers can fly for the offshore damage report, and until the water recedes enough to let people back into the refineries. I did hear that two land rigs near Golden Meadow were already down, blown over. But we always set storm packers in the wells so there shouldn't be anything hosed up except the rigs. Our big ?'s are: 1) How many damaged platforms? What type damage? 2) Did we lose anymore rigs? 3) How badly is Port Fourchon damaged? (biggest service port for the oilfield) 4) Is the LOOP operable? 5) How many boats (crew boats, supply boats, seismic boats, cement boats, etc) are damaged or lost? 6) Refinery damage assessment.

Update [2005-8-29 7:16:22 by ianqui]: A picture from the New York Times, which is reporting 8 to 10 inches of floodwater right now. Still, 8 to 10 inches is better than the 20 feet they predict if there's a storm surge.

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Breaking news out of New Orleans, the pumps have failed in N.O., definitely not good news for New Orleans.
do you have a link for the news of that?
Nope, I'm watching WAPT, channel 16 (out of New Orleans) over the streaming video. I'm sure it'll be out shortly if you haven't seen it already.
oh I believe you, just wanted to get a link up...
MSNBC Live: Superdome roof breached.  According to reporter in Superdome, daylight showing through!
Oops.  That was CNN.
Why would anyone sit in the Superdome during a near CAT 5 Hurricane? I would be hulling A*s. This could be a total disaster for those poor folks trapped in a football staduim.
"Poor folks" are the key words.  The people in the Superdome are those who do not have the means to flee.  No car, no money, no where to go.  Or just no gas to go.  A lot of them are also the disabled, who would have difficulty traveling very far.
I doubt the rich folks in their SUVs will have any guilt about those that were "Left Behind" in the Superdome.

Yesterday, they should have truly evacuated the city. That means getting everyone over to Houston or wherever by any means necessary.

Tourists also make up a significant number of the refugees.  No cars to rents, no extra flights out of the city.

Why the Superdome?  It's a big space with emergency power and which was designed to survive 200 mph winds.

The current problems with the roof indicate that the engineers may have been wrong about that, but it was still the safest shelter they had.

I think most of the tourists are staying in hotels.  Hotels got a waiver from the evacuation order for this reason.  They are putting people on the middle floors: above the storm surge, below the worst of the winds.  They hope, anyway.
Right, but government is supposed to help those in the most need and good people should pitch-in. How many are at the Superdome? 20,000. If they filled every bus, truck, train, etc they could have cleared them out within a day.
I think they did try to get people out.  But they had to have somewhere to send them.  And the traffic alone was a big problem.  They actually did a lot better than I thought they would, given how late they waited to sound the alarm.  

The problem with moving the frail and elderly is that the journey can be more stressful than staying.  Three nursing home residents died on the bus while they were being evacuated.  

MSNBC says only one of the pumping stations failed.  (So far.)  Dunno how many they have in total.  

Bad news about the Superdome.  Not just for the people getting rained on, but for all of us, because it suggests that Katrina, like the Northridge earthquake, will prove that we don't know as much about designing for extreme conditions as we think we do.

If the entire roof of the Superdome were to fail, what would happen? Beside getting rained on would the people not be seeing a near flood as well as fast fling particles in the air?
Who was the smart person to inform the people of NO to seek shelter in a football staduim?
I read 10,000 people are in the Superdome. A tear has already been in the roof at the fisrt start of the hurricane it is to get even worse in a few hrs.
If I were a tourist I would not be seeking shelter in a wooden hotle on the 2nd floor...yikes!!!
I read that 300K residents refused to leave their homes in NO are around the area. That may prove fatal>>>
WDSU is hesitantly reporting water over the levies in Jefferson.

Also, the market is now up. Oil prices up $3 and major economic issues as a result of this and the market is up. What a disconnect.

From Weather.com:

A levee in New Orleans has been breached sending 3 to 8 feet of water into the 9th Ward area of the city. Wind gusts to 86 mph were reported at the Lake Front Airport earlier this morning. Significant structural damage has been reported in New Orleans due to Katrina.


An area east of downtown was under eight feet of water, Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco told NBC's "Today" show, adding that a storm surge was rising at a foot an hour.

Resident Chris Robinson said via cellphone from his home east of downtown that "I'm not doing too good right now."

"The water's rising pretty fast," he added. "I got a hammer and an ax and a crowbar, but I'm holding off on breaking through the roof until the last minute. Tell someone to come get me please. I want to live."

Mayor Ray Nagin earlier told "Today" that some flooding was inevitable after one of the city's water pumping stations had failed.

From George Ure over at Urbansurvival:

I expect the Fed has been buying futures like crazy in an attempt to use arbitrage to leverage the market up at the open - which will give the commercials a chance to load up on shorts and then drop the market over the next few weeks as storm impacts are "discovered."

Not a bad theory. Never thought the market would go UP today of all days. Dumping my tech stocks.
The urban survival "rumor" is has even less basis in fact than the average conspiracy crap hurled around here. The Fed is not buying stock futures I assure you.

I think when "peakguy" and a few others look back at ther performance over the last 24 hours, they will (I hope) be ashamed. Half blaming the authorities for everything, half obsessing about their investments and how they can profit from this disaster - and if they are doing what they are saying, making mostly wrong bets.

One more black eye for the lunatic fringe of peak oil

I hesitate to say this to you folks, but the Atlantic hurricane season is not nearly over yet.
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions favoring hurricane formation that were predicted in May are now in place. These conditions, combined with the high levels of activity already seen, make an above-normal season nearly certain (95% to 100%).
For a quick summary, look at Figure 1.
Absolute shortages are starting to pop-up in the affected areas. Bush has agreed to "loan" oil to refiners if requested. The real question is: Do they have the capacity?