Refinery, Pipeline, and Rig Damage Information

It will take a while to assess the extent of the damage, perhaps until Thursday or Friday, to get a complete picture of the situation with oil production, while we should have a good idea about refineries and pipelines sooner than that.  The winds are still up, meaning that only fixed wing aircraft can make it up.  The helicopter fleets will be out tomorrow.  

Remember also that there are over 4000 rigs out there and around 90 platforms to assess.  It will take some time to get a complete picture.

Update from HO: As Rigzone points out the impact will rapidly spread beyond the immediate vicinity.

Gov. Jeb Bush warned the fuel supplies at Florida ports, which seemed ample on Friday, now will not be enough in view of an expected shutdown of the refineries off the Louisiana coast.

``There are localized fuel shortages and my expectation is those will continue,'' he said. ``We're encouraging people to use fuel responsibly and leave fuel for their neighbors.'  . . . .  . .

Sidney Coffee, executive assistant to the Louisiana Governor's Office for coastal activity, said the poor condition of the region's wetlands has left the oil pipelines more exposed and thus more vulnerable to damage by a hurricane. ``Many of the pipelines are open to conditions. There's going to be a lot of damage,'' she predicted.

``The loss of life is the main worry, and we hope that won't happen. But after that, everybody is going to be worried about oil.'' She added: ``With gas prices where they are already, now what?''

Smith, of the Florida petroleum group, said crude oil supplies don't worry him too much - the United States government keeps a 30-day supply on reserve for emergencies - but that a string of damaged refineries would leave the nation short on processing capacity.  . . . . .

With forecasters eyeing two Atlantic weather systems as potential tropical storms - and with many South Florida gas stations shuttered or empty in the wake of Katrina - fuel is bound to be a concern in the coming days.

He said Florida currently has a 10-day supply of fuel ``as long as everybody doesn't panic and go nuts.''

Update [2005-8-29 19:10:34 by ianqui]:And Patrick P. lets us know the following:
Transocean's Deepwater Nautilus Noble Jim Thompson
Katrina may have set oil rigs adrift: Coast Guard receives reports that there are possibly two unmanned oil rigs adrift in Gulf of Mexico.
August 29, 2005: 6:54 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (CNN) - The U.S. Coast Guard said it has received reports that Hurricane Katrina has set adrift one, and possibly two, unmanned off-shore oil drilling units in the Gulf of Mexico.

It is hoped that aerial searches can be conducted later Monday to check the reports, said Lt. Robert Wyman of the U.S. Coast Guard.

"The situation for us is that there's no way for us to go out there and confirm it," he said. "We're looking at trying to get an aircraft out later in the day."

A lot more information after the fold.
Here are the final GOMEX numbers. They predict that 86% of Gulf oil production is predicted to be cut for less than 10 days, 50% of oil production is predicted to be cut for 10-30 days, and 22% cut for over 30 days. Natural gas is just about as bad (59-29-5). That, folks, is a big deal if it's right, we're talking about a lot of capacity in the gulf. (Ironically, that little jog Katrina took to the NNE at landfall may benefit NOLA, but may be worse for the oil industry, more rig damage and more exposure to the offshore areas of MS and AL)

Here's a link to a good map of refineries/storage facilities/SPR in the MS/LA area

Here's a link to the petroleum storage and refining capabilities of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Here's a link to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  The problem with the SPR is that it's petroleum, not refined petroleum...and our refineries are already at 100% capacity, provided they survived the storm.  (Update by ianqui: White House says "too early" for SPR oil decision. Schumer's up to his old shenanigans, but Bush Co. wants to evaluate the situation before opening the SPR. Seems prudent.)

Here's a link to information on the LOOP and Port Fourchon.  Why are these important?

About one-sixth of the U.S. oil supply comes through the Port Fourchon facilities. The port, the only one in the region that handles supertankers, accounts for about 13% of U.S. oil imports. About 27% of U.S. domestic production comes through the port's pipelines. Even a minor disruption in production could send gasoline prices sharply higher.
It was reported that the LOOP and Port Fourchon are under a massive amount of water.

UPDATE:We have an oil industry insider who has emailed us saying that "there's 6-7 rigs floating free" right now, meaning they have detached from bottom (they would rather they sink instead of float...).  Shell has announced that they have two rigs floating, one visible from Mobile Bay.

(HO adds) And the refinery situation also has to be of concern as Bloomberg notes

Katrina forced the shutdown of at least eight oil refineries near the Gulf in Louisiana and Mississippi.  The plants have a combined crude-oil processing capacity of about 1.79 million barrels a day, or 10.5 percent of total U.S. capacity.
UPDATE CNN reports on damage in New Orleans itself
About 10,000 people, who were unable to evacuate the city, took shelter in the Louisiana Superdome -- the cavernous football stadium that is usually home to the New Orleans Saints. ..
Reporter Ed Reams from affiliate WDSU told CNN that Katrina ripped away a large section of the building's roof.. . .I can see daylight straight up from inside the Superdome," Reams reported.
And some early news from the Gulf - where we had earlier reported a note from J that there were at least two on-shore rigs that had been overturned.
The U.S. Coast Guard said it has received reports that Katrina has set adrift one, and possibly two, unmanned off-shore oil drilling units in the Gulf of Mexico.
However, as he pointed out, with storm packers in place, the wells will remain sealed.  The major concern remains for the pipelines and for the refineries in the vicinity.  Since there are several within the heart of the zone, where the storm remains at its most intense.

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More bad news: Late Monday, the first hard evidence emerged of possible gasoline supply disruptions. Valero Energy Corp. said its giant St. Charles, La., refinery was flooded, powerless and shut for at least a week. About 1.3 million customers in the region were without power.
Energy analysts fear oil supply disruptions will spark a jump in gasoline prices later this week. The first evidence came late Monday when Valero Energy Corp. of San Antonio, Texas, announced its St. Charles, La., refinery would be closed for at least a week. It processes 260,000 barrels of crude oil per day. "Our St. Charles refinery manager reports that he estimates one-to-two weeks before our St. Charles refinery can start up again," spokeswoman Mary Rose Brown said in an e-mail update detailing structural damage and flooding. "More complex refineries like St. Charles would typically require 5-7 days." Knight Ridder
The Bush administration said it would consider lending oil from the nation's emergency stockpile to refiners that request it - Citgo Petroleum Corp. asked for 250,000-500,000 barrels to ensure its Lake Charles, La., refinery does not run out - and the president of OPEC said he will propose a production increase of 500,000 barrels a day at the cartel's meeting next month. Analysts nervously awaited details on the extent of the damage to the region's platforms, pipelines, refineries and electric grid.

"We're losing a lot of crude oil and also a lot of natural gas," said Lawrence J. Goldstein, president of the New York-based nonprofit Petroleum Industry Research Foundation. Goldstein estimated that total refinery production of gasoline, heating oil, diesel and other fuels could fall by as much as 20 million barrels over the next 60 days...

Also Monday, several refiners said damage at their plants appeared to be minimal and oil prices eased from the day's high of $70.80 a barrel. But if a bleaker picture emerges in the days ahead - it may take more time to assess damage, depending on how rough the seas are - prices could run-up once again, analysts said.

Based on conversations with oil and gas companies operating in the Gulf, Goldstein said it appeared that Katrina would not curb output for as long as last year's Hurricane Ivan, even though the short-term impact was significant.

The federal Minerals Management Service said Monday that 92 percent of the region's oil output was shut-in, or shut down, with more than 3 million barrels of production lost since Friday. The agency said 83 percent of natural gas output was shut-in, resulting in a loss of 15.5 billion cubic feet of lost production since Friday.

fort wayne
Wow! Those two rigs that were sent adrift by Katrina are HUGE!
As I commented on the other blog (blogspot), a day or two after Ivan they were still saying there had been "minimal" damage.  And a year later they still haven't recovered fully.

It's too soon to tell, obviously.  

And Jeb?  Thanks for the hint.  People here are making sure to fill up with gas, since everyone expects prices to jump 20 cents a gallon.  And we are not affected by LA output, not so much.

MMS finally published yesterdays report:

These evacuations are equivalent to 75.09% of 819 manned platforms and 71.64% of 137 rigs currently operating in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

Today's shut-in oil production is 1,375,413 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 91.69% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today's shut-in gas production is 8.299 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 82.99% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-8/29/05 is 3,133,859 bbls, which is equivalent to 0.572% of the yearly production of oil in the GOM which is approximately 547.5 million barrels.

The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-8/29/05 is 15.447 BCF, which is equivalent to 0.423% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM which is approximately 3.65 TCF.