LOBG: Michael Economides
Posted by Prof. Goose on August 25, 2005 - 7:28pm
Who is Economides you ask? Michael Economides is a Professor of Petroleum Engineering at the University of Houston. He is also co-author of the book The Color of Oil and is interviewed on CNBC fairly regularly.
Economides is joining the "oil is going to $100" club.
Economides stated three primary reasons.More over at LOBG's place.1.) Russia - "First Yukos was destroyed and taken over by Rosneft, now you have Sibneft, the fourth largest, being taken over by Gazprom, so 50% of Russian oil production is being re-Sovietized, and the Soviet Union did not have a very good track record in oil production."
2.) Chavez - "Even before the assassination insinuations he was militant enough, and I'm sure he's not going to be a happy camper for us."
3.) China - "The yuan has been re-valued and it will make it a lot easier for China to buy oil. They have gone beserk already last year, look for China to increase it's energy demands and oil purchases significantly."
"All of these things are a hurricane level 5, perfect storm to increase the price of oil towards $100."
Russia: The only threat I see here is the Russian gov't slowing production as a way to punish the West/US. With the oil assets in private hands, it would flow as long as there was money to be made; under more ideological control, it could be slowed for political purposes.
Chavez: He's arrogant, but far from stupid. Robertson flapping his gums and the Bush admin. not being smart enough to condemn the statements isn't going to change Chavez's actions. The US just handed him a huge, free PR win, and I think he's easily smart enough to take it and not upset the situation unless something far more serious happens.
China: The yuan re-evaluation was miniscule, and we've already seen China's oil demand slow its growth this year, likely in response to the price rise in 2005. Unless something else unforeseen happens, the yuan change will have a negligible effect on China's oil consumption.
I doubt, if he said those things recently, that he's seen the light of peak oil.
I also find it interesting that there have been several "official" comments from the US gov't and other high profile sources saying that oil prices will remain more or less where they are until the end of 2006. To me, this sounds like an attempt to shape public perception as we're on the final approach to the actual peak.
This is a very important question. We've been told by various "authorities" that price decreases can not be expected through 2006, so that's a pretty long bottleneck. In fact, it's likely we'll be in the $75 to $100 range IMHO sometime in 2006. If these prices depress demand, we might come back to current levels ($65 to $70) from whatever the high is.
Importantly, it seems that much, much higher prices are required to change American gasoline consumption habits in those cases where there is some elasticity. So, I'm skeptical about large demand drops in the US (and in China).
Finally, what oil supply magic occurs in 2007 to make everything OK again?
src: Petroleum Experts Debate Impending World Oil Shortage
He made a good prediction about the increase of oil price in 2000 but I think he believes this is a temporary business cycle.
So, In addition to being an economist, Economides is also a petroleum geologist? A very versatile guy, I must say.
"Hydrogen fuel cells are "around the corner" as an energy source..."
[insert usual remark here that hydrogen fuel cells not an energy source and it takes energy to produce the hydrogen]
For anyone who's interested, that interview is very interesting. You can find it at:
http://www.financialsenseonline.com/transcriptions/simmons.html