More EIA: Demand will Outstrip Supply in Q4 '05 and Q1 and Q4 of '06

Something we've talked about already, but more evidence of it.  The EIA officially is stating that oil demand will outstrip supply in the fourth quarter of this year, as well as in Q1 and Q4 of 2006.  (hat tip:

The link to the .pdf report can be found here.  Happy reading.

Note: this was over on the other site, but this is pretty important, so I moved it over here.

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Ok, but I just don't understand what's the big deal! demand seems to have outstriped supply many times in the past without making headlines, so what's different now? If we look at inventories in term of equivalent number of days of consumption, we still are above the average of the last 5 years. However, we are down 10-20 days compared to the 90s (for the US stocks excluding SPR).

Prices are up since September 2002 but without a significant fall in the oil stocks over an extended period of time. So what is it? speculation? fear?


Well, if their projections for supply growth are at all wrong (factoring in Saudi production gains), that means even more unstable oil pricing.  

It also means that the margin for error (or terrorism or a dictator that wants to screw with the market/fungibility or or or) is so razor-thin that oil producers and terrorists have growing amounts of geopolitical power over time...