And oil rigs become more attractive . . . .
Posted by Heading Out on October 31, 2005 - 10:57pm
I would think there should be some possibilities for us to prevent the shutdown of the oil and gas industry. The problem seems not to be physical impacts from the storms, but making sure there's still electricity to keep these facilities running."One thing that was apparent down there was that in cases where the power lines started to fall, the weight of one collapse brought down the rest, like a row of dominoes. There was one place we saw where the burn scar ran for probably two or three blocks.Earlier, Sen. Mary L. Landrieu (D-La.) asked the two secretaries if they knew of any changes that would be made in electricity transmission systems along the Gulf Coast as a result of the two storms.
"I don't have specific recommendations," Bodman replied. "I'm assuming that when the transmission lines are reconstructed in western Louisiana, they will be built to higher codes."
Landrieu wasn't satisfied. "This is a very integrated energy system. You can have the most sophisticated production platforms, pipeline systems, and refineries," she observed. "But if we haven't spent two minutes considering how we get electricity to them during and following an emergency, we can't expect them to continue functioning reliably."
While underground technology is usually more expensive than overhead, we have determined that the costs between the two are comparable for this project as an all-overhead route would require the expansion of the right of way and the purchase of homes and businesses.Burying them not only protects them from the weather, but also protects the roads and vicinity from falling lines, and the destruction that they bring. (Although talking to one of the water folk in NOLA his big hope was that they would reduce the size of the trees along the roads).
Alternatively, I suppose they could provide a more robust support system, with some mechanism for stopping the cascading collapse problem. The problem with that is the saturation of the soil reduces the anchorage, and so they would probably need a more complex installation, of more cost and time to put in.
Which is a bit of a distraction from the secretarial visit, which has some insights.
ompanies are telling Interior's Minerals Management Service division that repairs to damaged facilities could take several more months to a year, she continued. "For example, we estimate, based on industry reports, that 30% of pipelines have not been leak-tested, and approximately 60% of underwater riser inspections have not been completed," Norton said.More details on the Virginia idea can be found at Rigzone. And of course, one must not forget the needs for revenue.The storms demonstrated that domestic energy supply geographic diversification must remain a top priority, she maintained. Some committee members agreed, suggesting that a key step would be to move Outer Continental Shelf production beyond the central and western Gulf of Mexico.
"We're hearing from states like Virginia, where there hasn't been production in the past, who are interested in possible development if more revenue is shared," Thomas said.
During the hearing, Landrieu said she was encouraged to hear that other coastal states beyond Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama might be interested in seeing oil and gas resources off their coasts developed.And to put this in context of the continuing state of the shut-ins in the GOMEX, the latest MMS report hasBut she added that it isn't fair for such states to get large shares of federal revenues from new production without increasing royalty and revenue shares for states with current adjacent OCS production.
These evacuations are equivalent to 27.23% of 819 manned platforms and 4.48% of 134 rigs currently operating in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).In reply to questions about the need for more refining capacity, the response was that it would most likely come from expanding existing refineries, rather than permitting and building totally new ones. And Marathon has announced that they will increase the size of one of theirs from 245,000 bd to 425,000 bd. Cost is $2.2 billion, and starting in 2007 it should be done by the end of 2009.Today's shut-in oil production is 1,015,859 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 67.72% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.
Today's shut-in gas production is 5.427 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 54.27% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.
The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-10/31/05 is 74,664,422 bbls, which is equivalent to 13.637% of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).
The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-10/31/05 is 381.128 BCF, which is equivalent to 10.442 % of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).
Am I worried about Irving "Scooter" Libby? No. Am I worried about future refined oil shortfalls in the US? Yes. Do I need to worry about Natural Gas shortfalls? No, I don't. They are already here.
I don't mean to sound so "Apocalyptic" in the Christian end times sense about all this lately but I really don't see any "Good News". I really don't.
How much more production is "assumed to be OK" while not reporting? Go take a look at the EIA chart (which now only updates twice weekly) - the gap between this year and last year (Ivan) is ~800Kbpd.
And, HO - what happened? No techie talk this past weekend - sorely missed.
Keep up the good work.
A question ofr this board, according to EIA refinery capacity stands at 82.75 while crude supply stands at 84 ( until recently at least). Can we corroborate from this whether actual demand and supply numbers are correct?
This has been done throughout the upper midwest, where ice storms used to cause lines to collapse practically every winter. Now when ice causes poles to collapse, they only lose a mile or so of transmission line, rather than the whole length of the thing. Which still causes an outage, of course, but it's much quicker and cheaper to fix this way. It doesn't take long for the super-poles to pay for themselves.
Utilize the refinery feedstock to run a sufficiently large generator. Every one of these plants utilize natural gas - many already generate their own power. As every single one of these plants has rail access, even coal could be used to power a local, refinery specific generator setup.
But when a plant is inundated with 10-20 feet of water, then there are other issues. Doesn't matter then if it is local power or not - repairs must be completed first.
Offshore platforms generate their own electricity from the natural gas available at the site - they do not rely on shore-based power. This includes those that send in neatly dewatered and partially refined streams of product. Thus this is already something that is common in the industry.
They do this because they have no choice. It's frickin' expensive.
If power outages at a refinery are frequent then there may come a break-even point where it becomes cost-effective to have onsite power generation. But at that level a smart manager will begin to question whether the refinery should just be relocated.
You do not have to run the local powerplant 24/7, start it up when you expect the power feed to fail or after it has failed to start up the refinery withouth waiting for external power.
I'd have thought this was Louisiana's problem at the state level to mandate those standards and then see that they are enforced.
I think this can be properly paraphrased as "Duuuuuhhhh".
Aparently, the issue was one he had not considered before.