many interesting things to look at here...great graphs..distillate production 500kbd below same time last year, but imports only making up 110kbd...hmmm..does this have anything to do with the differential price of diesel compared to gasolino?...the last graph..is that why i pay only $2.34 , when i was paying $2.98 in september?..and yet in the gulf of mexico, 1 million barrels of production remain idle... politics? nah. economically.. no body is thinking about what this is doing and will continue to do to the already dismal balence of payments....we look like a third world country about to happen.

If refinery capacity is struggling to return to normal as we enter the winter, and imports are rapidly declining, we will have problems with our gasoline inventory.  However, I can envision a scenario where basically all of the refinery capacity affected by Katrina and Rita is running at full capacity by Thanksgiving.  We could see crude stockpiles plummet as it becomes clear that production data has been manipulated.  Before the hurricanes, the world was likely producing closer to 82.5 mb/d than 84 mb/d, and we have now had lengthy periods where at least several hundred kb/d in the Gulf of Mexico was affected by the hurricanes, not to mention that over 1 mb/d  was out for most of this time.  

In my opinion, by the end of the winter we could have a situation where crude stockpiles are far from zero, but low enough that refineries are having trouble getting all the crude they need to run at close to full capacity.  Of course, we have the SPR, but it would make more sense to tap it for short-term disruptions rather than drain it all winter long.  It may be that upcoming times are far worse than any individual disruption could ever be, but in that case it doesn't make much sense to drain the SPR immediately.

If we have consistent crude drawdowns of more than 5 million b/d, the price of crude would likely soar.  Therefore, inventories might not get dangerously low, but only because prices went up dramatically.  That is the job of the free market.  On the other hand, if the price of refined products were to soar in lockstep, the refineries would have no incentive to slow their runs until they absolutely have to.  

I'm not sure where the best place to post this is. To help with scenario visualization I made a simple application to view future depletion graphs based on slider based inputs. This application runs on Windows platform.

To use - just download the zip file, unzip in a directory, then run the PeakProj.exe file. Nothing is installed on the PC. To remove, just delete the files.

ftp://polydee-instruments.com/pub/peak-viewer.zip (this file is about 1.2MB)

Screenshot:

This is a project in progress, I would welcome any suggestions, email is on the about dialog.

Have fun plotting the future.

Typhoon, what makes you think that the world was producing closer to 82.5 million rather than 84. That would mean mean world oil invesntories would be drawn down a good deal in the third quarter wouldnt it? I know the US oil inventories were drawn down in the third quarter but not if you take into account what happened to SPR which went up.
But I think you are right about the fourth quarter and 1st quarter 06 probably should follow in a similiar vein.  MMS reports more than 71 million barrels lost till now in gom Estimates of total production loss range from 125 -200 million barrels total. Then there is also the number not reported. BP's flagship thunderhorse now comes on about 6 months later. Assuming 10000bl per day thats 18 million barrels lost in 2006. Damaged rigs are using shipyard time which could otherwise be used to build more rigs. Doesnt look good. Doesnt look good at all.

Re:  Oil Production/Supply Numbers

I was wondering if someone could comment on the pros and cons of the two oil numbers.   In my opinion, the best oil number is crude oil + condensate, 73.6 mbd in July according to the EIA.  

If we include NGL's, the number increases to 84 mbd in July.   The latter number is the most frequently used number.    

The EIA refers to the smaller number as "oil production."  The larger number is "oil supply."  

By the way, both numbers are basically flat, from 7/04 to 7/05, i.e., according to the EIA, we were showing zero growth in oil production/supply year over year (just before the hurricanes).

Thanks for that Westexas. I really did not know EIA had different jargon for those two things. I think it is interesting that we are flat year over year. Pickens and Groppe both have been saying that this is the max we will  get out. Simmons thinks even this is not sustainable.

I was wondering with suhc high Natural gas prices can companies choose to directly sell NG rather than make NGL with it? Of course in North america only.

Note that there are drawdowns are still occurring out of the SPR.

October looks like it has been a busy month moving oil out of the SPR.

http://www2.spr.doe.gov/DIR/SilverStream/Pages/pgDailyInventoryReportViewDOE_new.html

Note there are even November numbers. Can anyone explain that one to me?

Is this why crude stocks built over the last few weeks?

An exchange is a loan. usually to an integrated having troubling running refineries at full capacity. Has to be paid bakc when production comes online.

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