It would be nice, but . . . . . .

There is an interesting article in  the newsletter at Energy Central this week, which states that the Russian Government is looking at increasing oil production to 11 mbd.  One of the areas of interest in in Western Siberia, where the company Siberian Energy Group is going to start drilling in new areas within the near future.  They are claiming that the area used to be a military reserve, if I understand the situation, and thus it is a relatively untapped area that they hope will be productive.  They will also be bringing in Western technology to help with production and exploration.  At the same time there is an article in Rigzone today which also indicates that Russia is now looking to the West.
Russian Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko said Monday he would like to see both U.S. energy majors Chevron Corp.  and ConocoPhillips in the consortium to develop a huge offshore natural gas field in the Barents Sea.

Both companies - along with Norway's Norsk Hydro ASA, Norway's Statoil ASA  and France's Total SA - are on a shortlist to develop OAO Gazprom's Shtokman field.

Given that the majors are running out of good investment opportunities elsewhere and that the need for oil supplies at an ever increasing price is becoming obvious, one can see that the opportunities that this is bringing is loosening investment restrictions in a number of places, Russia being only one.

Well a quick check with the Megaprojects list we mentioned earlier gives only 5 fields between now and 2010 that will collectively by then only yield about 1 - 1.5 mbd These are Prirazlomnoye (Russia Siberia) 155,000 now, 610,000 in 2010;  Sakhalin I  (Russian Far East) 250,000 in  2006; Sakhalin 2 (Russian Far East) 120,000 in 2007; Vankorskoye (Russia Siberia) 216,000 by 2010; and Uvatskoye (Russia Siberia) 200,000.

Well it would be nice to see that extra production from Russia, but it must be remembered that Russia is much like the United States in that a lot of the oil has now been developed and produced, and it has to be considered a set of very mature fields.  As such many of the larger fields are in terminal depletion Romashkino and Samotlor coming immediately to mind).  Without finding another one of those - the odds on which are miniscule, and the time line for development of which would likely be at least 7 years - it does not seem likely that the Russian government will be able to meet the new targets. Further, since many of the Russian fields use concurrent water flood with primary production, this led to the high depletion rates for both of the above fields, once they reached peak production.  This, in turn, would suggest that the new developments that Chris Skrebowski has listed will, if anything only partially mitigate what will potentially be another producing country in decline before long.

Glad you brought this up. From Scandinavian Oil And Gas Magazine:
The Barents Sea - the ice-filled Arctic sea north of Norway and northwest Russia - is estimated to hold more than 40 billion barrels of oil equivalent
From Russian Oil And Gas Resources
Most estimates [Granberg et al., 1993; Malovitski et al., 1994] suggest that promising oil- and gas-bearing areas are found on about 90% of all Russian shelves. They cover 5.2-6.2 million square kilometers. Potential recoverable hydrocarbon resources of the Russian continental shelves are estimated within 90 to 100 billion tons of oil equivalent. Natural gas resources account for 80% of them.

Practically everywhere on the Russian shelf, the affinity between the offshore petroleum-bearing provinces and corresponding geological structures of the adjoining inland areas is found. Global experience indicates that in such cases, the oil and gas potential of the shelf fields is higher than that of the onshore accumulations.
But read the whole thing.

From Exploring the Barents Sea
Analysts estimate that the Arctic region holds a quarter of the world's oil and gas reserves. The Snohvit field has made Statoil the technological vanguard in the Barents Sea.
Again, read the cited article.

This whole polar oil subject is very interesting and there is a lot of optimistic speculation going on, especially since the Arctic regions are basically melting down due to the climate warming up there....
Sorry HO. I didn't make my point really. Western Siberia fields have little to offer as far as large future increased production goes as your post states and also from what I can ascertain from what little I've read. My point was simply that there's a large amount of unwarranted optimistic speculation that Arctic Ocean drilling offshore from Russia/Norway will save the day....
This is a lot of speculation. Simmons makes the point that oil doesn't count till a bit hits it. The Barents article mentions that 61 wells have been drilled, with some gas finds but only one oil find of modest quantity. Two more wildcats were drilled since that article, using the best modern technology available to indentify promising locations - both came up completely dry. Results are disappointing at best. A lot is riding on that "quarter of the world's supply" - which is so far not looking so good in practice. Hard information is surprisingly difficult to find - comes in bit & pieces, as below.

I'm also aware of some smaller Russian fields expected on: Salym (120kbpd) and Vadelyp (close to Salym - not sure of expected production yet. See this Shell press release
I wonder if people reading here at TOD understand the gravity, the seriousness of the situation if Russia tips over into Type 3 depletion in the next few years. Deservedly, this post is front page news.... And stepping up to the plate will be the much esteemed and beloved Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi....
Long may Allah protect him from his enemies...
اللَّهُ اكْبَرُ، اللَّهُ اكْبَرُ [God Is Great]
Who has the latest data on the Russian production? The numbers from last summer show that Russia is already in decline from the peak of September 2004. When the September 2005 numbers come out we know better. In any case the rapid growth trend of the last years has broken and production is flatter now. The new projects will probably not come fast enough to change this.
The IEA says roughly 9.5 mbpd )an upward trend from the september 2004 peak)

Here is what the Russians are hoping for in 2005

Russian oil exports to grow by 220,000 bpd in 2005

Russia will increase its average daily oil exports by 220,000 barrels in 2005 compared to 2004, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told journalists following the first day of a meeting between the Group of Twenty finance ministers in China's Xianghe on October 15. Russia is pursuing a number of projects to increase oil production, the minister said. "This includes the beginning of the development of the Sakhalin-1 project, 80 percent of the operators of which are foreign," he said. Thanks to this project alone, Russia's daily oil production will increase by 240,000 barrels by the end of 2006, Kudrin said. At the present time, this project accounts for an increase in daily oil production by 45,000 barrels, he said. In addition, investments in oil production in Russia grew by about 34 percent in the first seven months of 2005, Kudrin said. "This is a very significant growth in investments," he said. In 2006, Russia will more than double state investments in geological prospecting, he said. According to the finance ministry information, Russia expects to produce about 474 million tonnes of oil in 2005, or 9.5 million barrels a day, which is 3.3 percent more than in 2004.

That's it. Because the production growth was very high in 2004, more than 1 billion bpd, it follows that 3.3% increase for 2005 means in fact decreasing production from the level at the end of last year. The increase is from average daily production during the year, which was lower than the peak in September. In every case the production has flattened. Even those new projects they are talking about cannot make much difference. They are not saying anything about depletion of their very mature fields. Russia is very important because it accounted for most of production increase in 2003 and 2004.
I'm expecting (with an admitted bit of schadenfreude) a Russian production-peak attribution error caused by Putin's power grab. The re-nationalization of production is certain to cause productivity declines over the long term. It'll appear  a validation of natural course, but it'll be merely a function of political course.
Yes - it's going to be very hard for outsiders to disambiguate the two.
To be exact the production decline was expected and we may strongly suspect that Yukos was overproducing a lot. The Russian peak was already in the end of the '80s. The big fields are very mature. Nothing special here. Nationalized oil companies are not worse than the others. All those big private ones are now in decline, as posted in this blog some time ago...
240kbpd is a lot less than the increases they've been kicking in:

You can probably count out Mexico as a further contributor too. Recent stats for first 9 mos of each year are (thousand bls daily):

2003  3771
2004  3840
2005  3772

Mexico added 100 thousand barrels/day the first 3 1/2 years of this decade, but has slowly declined since. With Cantarell peaking, the slide should pick up steam over the next 12 mos. Looks like it's into type III decline already.

BP's thunder horse now projected for 2nd half 2006. Wasnt Chris's megaprojects looking for it in the first half? thats 250,000 barrels of LSC delayed for a few months. I want to see if we see jun-dec 2006 futures trade up on this news.
Could I have the link to Thunderhorse, fireangel?

The quarter also saw the Thunder Horse platform in the Gulf of Mexico list dramatically and repair costs for that facility are seen coming in at $100 million.

So let's say BP pushes all other projects aside at say Morgan City.

It will then have to strip off the top of the platform and get the other superstructure, which we'll say they have to just pull off the shelf.  Then bolt this superstructure to the drydocked platform and then float Thunderhorse back out to MS Canyon,  experiencing nothing but good (non hurricane) weather.

Then drilling miles into GOMEX with no problems encountered.

And BP's going to do this by this time next year?

Are these people Gods!?

I don't think so. bol=US:BP

About halfway through the article. I assume this is what you wanted. Chris;s megaprojects discusses in the text that Thunderhorse has been postponed to 1half 2006 from 2005 end.

BP p.l.c. Group Results 3rd Quarter 2005-

Thank you for the reply, fireangel. I went to the site you posted and got the above BP statement.  Nothing from Chris.

PS-I'm new here.  I'm still trying to navigate my way around.

Look forward to your comments,

I agree it seems unlikely. The analyst's ere divided on this. Most were surprised. They either expected 1st half 06 or 1st half 07. So second half 06 was surprising. Oil futures are up but no extra jumps in june and dec 06 figures. Markets were discounting the fact that it would not be started by early 06. In my opinion.
You welcome. Did you want a link to the megaprojects analysis? Its there multiple places on this site. Here is thye link if you need it. Welcome to the board.

(via energy bulletin)
A bit of a different spin on future Russian production

Russian oil output could peak  in 2010 at 10.2 million barrels per day (bpd)
Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:19 PM ET         

(Adds details)

By Chris Baltimore

WASHINGTON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Russian oil output could peak at more than 510 million tonnes annually in 2010, or 10.2 million barrels per day (bpd), Russian Energy Minister Victor Khristenko said on Monday.

"It will reach a certain plateau of production within the time frame of 2010," Khristenko told reporters. That plateau would be about 510 to 520 million tonnes a year, he said, or the equivalent of about 10.2 to 10.4 million bpd.

In September, Russia produced 9.53 million bpd, which was a post-Soviet high, according to Energy Ministry data.

Khristenko said Russia aims to achieve annual output of 500 million tonnes by 2008-09.

On his first U.S. trip as energy minister, Khristenko met with President George W. Bush and senior administration officials including U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez.

Analysts say that Russia's growth will continue for a few more months as oil firms ramp up production, including Exxon Mobil Corp.'s massive Sakhalin project.

Russia's oil production has stagnated since growing 9 percent in 2004 and a record 11 percent in 2003.

Russia is chasing Saudi Arabia's title as the world's top crude oil producer. Saudi Arabia pumped 9.6 million bpd of crude oil in September, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

But unlike the Middle East's oil giant, which chooses not to pump at full capacity, Russia is keen to see production hit record highs. Saudi Arabia has surplus capacity of up to 1.4 million bpd, according to the EIA.