It would be nice, but . . . . . .
Posted by Heading Out on October 24, 2005 - 11:33pm
Russian Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko said Monday he would like to see both U.S. energy majors Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips in the consortium to develop a huge offshore natural gas field in the Barents Sea.Both companies - along with Norway's Norsk Hydro ASA, Norway's Statoil ASA and France's Total SA - are on a shortlist to develop OAO Gazprom's Shtokman field.
Well a quick check with the Megaprojects list we mentioned earlier gives only 5 fields between now and 2010 that will collectively by then only yield about 1 - 1.5 mbd These are Prirazlomnoye (Russia Siberia) 155,000 now, 610,000 in 2010; Sakhalin I (Russian Far East) 250,000 in 2006; Sakhalin 2 (Russian Far East) 120,000 in 2007; Vankorskoye (Russia Siberia) 216,000 by 2010; and Uvatskoye (Russia Siberia) 200,000.
Well it would be nice to see that extra production from Russia, but it must be remembered that Russia is much like the United States in that a lot of the oil has now been developed and produced, and it has to be considered a set of very mature fields. As such many of the larger fields are in terminal depletion Romashkino and Samotlor coming immediately to mind). Without finding another one of those - the odds on which are miniscule, and the time line for development of which would likely be at least 7 years - it does not seem likely that the Russian government will be able to meet the new targets. Further, since many of the Russian fields use concurrent water flood with primary production, this led to the high depletion rates for both of the above fields, once they reached peak production. This, in turn, would suggest that the new developments that Chris Skrebowski has listed will, if anything only partially mitigate what will potentially be another producing country in decline before long.
From Exploring the Barents Sea Again, read the cited article.
This whole polar oil subject is very interesting and there is a lot of optimistic speculation going on, especially since the Arctic regions are basically melting down due to the climate warming up there....
http://www.oilvoice.com/Eni_receives_Barents_Sea_drilling_goahead/4861.htm
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
Russian oil exports to grow by 220,000 bpd in 2005
Russia will increase its average daily oil exports by 220,000 barrels in 2005 compared to 2004, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told journalists following the first day of a meeting between the Group of Twenty finance ministers in China's Xianghe on October 15. Russia is pursuing a number of projects to increase oil production, the minister said. "This includes the beginning of the development of the Sakhalin-1 project, 80 percent of the operators of which are foreign," he said. Thanks to this project alone, Russia's daily oil production will increase by 240,000 barrels by the end of 2006, Kudrin said. At the present time, this project accounts for an increase in daily oil production by 45,000 barrels, he said. In addition, investments in oil production in Russia grew by about 34 percent in the first seven months of 2005, Kudrin said. "This is a very significant growth in investments," he said. In 2006, Russia will more than double state investments in geological prospecting, he said. According to the finance ministry information, Russia expects to produce about 474 million tonnes of oil in 2005, or 9.5 million barrels a day, which is 3.3 percent more than in 2004.
2003 3771
2004 3840
2005 3772
Mexico added 100 thousand barrels/day the first 3 1/2 years of this decade, but has slowly declined since. With Cantarell peaking, the slide should pick up steam over the next 12 mos. Looks like it's into type III decline already.
The quarter also saw the Thunder Horse platform in the Gulf of Mexico list dramatically and repair costs for that facility are seen coming in at $100 million.
So let's say BP pushes all other projects aside at say Morgan City.
It will then have to strip off the top of the platform and get the other superstructure, which we'll say they have to just pull off the shelf. Then bolt this superstructure to the drydocked platform and then float Thunderhorse back out to MS Canyon, experiencing nothing but good (non hurricane) weather.
Then drilling miles into GOMEX with no problems encountered.
And BP's going to do this by this time next year?
Are these people Gods!?
I don't think so.
About halfway through the article. I assume this is what you wanted. Chris;s megaprojects discusses in the text that Thunderhorse has been postponed to 1half 2006 from 2005 end.
Thank you for the reply, fireangel. I went to the site you posted and got the above BP statement. Nothing from Chris.
PS-I'm new here. I'm still trying to navigate my way around.
Look forward to your comments,
James
http://sydneypeakoil.com/downloads/PR_OCT2005_Megaprojects.pdf
A bit of a different spin on future Russian production
Russian oil output could peak in 2010 at 10.2 million barrels per day (bpd)
Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:19 PM ET
http://tinyurl.com/7wgwa
(Adds details)
By Chris Baltimore
WASHINGTON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Russian oil output could peak at more than 510 million tonnes annually in 2010, or 10.2 million barrels per day (bpd), Russian Energy Minister Victor Khristenko said on Monday.
"It will reach a certain plateau of production within the time frame of 2010," Khristenko told reporters. That plateau would be about 510 to 520 million tonnes a year, he said, or the equivalent of about 10.2 to 10.4 million bpd.
In September, Russia produced 9.53 million bpd, which was a post-Soviet high, according to Energy Ministry data.
Khristenko said Russia aims to achieve annual output of 500 million tonnes by 2008-09.
On his first U.S. trip as energy minister, Khristenko met with President George W. Bush and senior administration officials including U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez.
Analysts say that Russia's growth will continue for a few more months as oil firms ramp up production, including Exxon Mobil Corp.'s massive Sakhalin project.
Russia's oil production has stagnated since growing 9 percent in 2004 and a record 11 percent in 2003.
Russia is chasing Saudi Arabia's title as the world's top crude oil producer. Saudi Arabia pumped 9.6 million bpd of crude oil in September, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
But unlike the Middle East's oil giant, which chooses not to pump at full capacity, Russia is keen to see production hit record highs. Saudi Arabia has surplus capacity of up to 1.4 million bpd, according to the EIA.