Interesting that Beyond Petroleum is headed up while Willyoujoinus is headed down.

Me thinks they lost it in an accounting error!

Maybe Matt Simmons and our other favorite Oil Prophets might be right after all, and the media is just covering someone's backside.

As has been stated by others, there seems to be a real disconnect out there in mom and pop land.  Christmas is coming, the stores are filled with all the toys and gagets for folks to buy.  Why worry about lost oil? Prices have gone down didn't you see?  No worries spend it, no need to conserve, why worry hurricane season is almost over with, and all that other no worry be happy end of another great year in retail.

PS,  Even before Katrina I drove less than 10 miles a week, Down from 100's of miles a week.  But when I am out I don't see any reductions at all in the other folk's driving habits and they continue to build bigger better roads.

 

According to page one of the linked report, the combined oil  production of the "top 22" is only 16.7mb/d in 2Q2005, about 20% of the world consumption.

Most of these companies are indeed losing marketshare--no one could argue that.  But there's no connection between what that small part of the world market (which overall is still increasing production or holding steady) and IEA's mythical 10gb number.

very interesting indeed! I see prices dropping at the pumps too, i am not seeing any changes in driving habits either. And the sheeple have seen gas go up before, and they have seen it go back down. But, while prices are dropping, the news media (mainstream) is starting to pick up on energy news, from CNN to Fox. Any business finance channel like bloomberg or CNBC are reporting prices and mergers or other oil and gas related infot, but not production data, However, the media knows the potential impact they share on professing any gloom and doom scenarios regarding energy, so they will continue to soften the blow with their choice of words and downplay energy importance till one day, someone will switch gears from "everythings just fine" and say "we have a big big problem". And it won't come from Matt Simmons. I am begining to think Matt is right, but why would he set a specific target price? rather than a price range?

Do these figures imply that we have already peaked ?

The PDF doesn't have all the data that the chart shows. There's only six quartly data points the others are annual and averages. Where did the data for that chart come from?

this is where i got my info regarding Simmons high oil price prediction.

 http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9753233/

I think there is another very important thing to keep in mind about the current lull of normalcy that has many oildrum posters (including myself) somewhat perplexed and nonplussed:  This may not yet quite be the winter where things start heading out of control in the direction prognosticated by e.g. Simmons.  Due to the many uncertainties and murkinesses in the supply picture, the lull and reprieve may wind up lasting a number of years.  But if that happens, it does not mean that the Simmons prognostication will not come true eventually.  

Also, the lull may be artificially extended somewhat in the powerful industrialized countries by the squeezing of third world nations out of the fossil-fuel consuming picture in various ways - such as has already happened in Zimbabwe, and in Zambia also, I believe.

Before being squeezed out of oil, gross mismanagement, the lack of a free press and consequent corruption in Zimbabwe and others in and out of Africa first squeezed food and other necessities out of their economies. Many resource poor countries have ample access to energy supplies, but these countries have, by and large, fairly reasonable levels of corruption and, in many cases, both a free press and at least a semblance of democracy. Great non-African cases in point are north and south Korea.

I didn't see Aramco on the list. I thought they were the world's biggest producers.