Wilma Category 5: Lowest Pressure Ever

Their view on the track is still pretty much the same:

Here's what the models show:

But notice how the hurricane itself has shifted to a more westerly direction. Judge for yourself:

Java must be enabled for radar loops to display.

In Netscape:
Select: Edit -> Preferences -> Advanced
Check "Enable Java" and "Enable Javascript"

In Internet Explorer
Select: Tools -> Internet Options -> Security tab
Select the Internet zone and set the Security level for the zone to "Medium"

You may need to restart your browser after making these changes.

How appropriate that my first post here on TOD involves hurricanes.  I live in Lake Wales, Florida.  This is where the three hurricanes that hit peninsula Florida last year crossed.  I have the dubious distinction of having had three hurricane eyes pass over my roof.  Needless to say, we here in Central Florida got really good at watching NHC and the Weather Channel.

A couple things worry me about Wilma (other than the fact I live in Florida).  On the three day path projection graph, the cone has a large bulge.  This means the `steering currents' are not that strong.  (Rita did a similar thing when she made landfall).  Until we know where it is headed, it will be difficult to call for evacuations.  These hurricanes have a mind of their own and tend to go where they want.  One trouble with small storms is you can be fine here, and five miles down the road, nothing is left.  If the path is unsure, you need to evacuate everywhere it possibly could strike.

However, on the five day track, it picks up speed and goes rocketing across the state.  This may not be a good thing.  This will carry the high winds further inland and hit structures that are not designed or used to these high winds.  Hurricane Charley did this very thing.  It came ashore a high Cat 3/Low Cat 4, and ripped through the state like a tornado on steroids.  (We were 80 miles down the track and we had winds of 105 mph.  Polk Co. is only required to be designed for 90 mph in the latest building code.)

A fast moving storm also means evacuation times are less.  Wilma seems to be headed towards the Naples area.  The only real northbound evacuation route is I-75.  This is only a four lane facility that clogs up on any given `rush hour' morning.  

It's going to be a long weekend folks.

On Monday morn, i stated that the models were showing already that Wilma would zip over mianmi as a Cat3 on Sunday.  Nothing has changed and the media frenzy of wishful thinking for more chaos remains unfounded, as are the new fears of Florida damage.  Though she set a record as the strongest Atlantic  Hurricane this morn, it is merely part of the process of blowing itself out over the next 24hrs and the chance of continuing as a Cat5 or 4 is almost zilch.  I see the fear component is alive and well in the usa.  
Monday's forecast was incredibly accurate.  Still headed to Miami but will likely be Cat2 strength.
What i find amazing about this hurricane is that it almost seems to "choose" to stay above hot water to gain extra momentum, instead of hitting land here and there, it just slides itself through the narrow hole between Cuba and Mexico.

I also note the oilprice - hurricane interaction :

WILMA is born --> +1
She's not going to the oilfields --> -1.5
but it's going to be a cat 5+ --> + 0.5

Sunday : "Miami will not be consuming for a few years" --> -2

...that is because the paths of these recent storms are "chosen" and steered by rogue terrorists using scalar electromagnetic weaponry.  Then Secretary of Defense under WJ Clinton, William Cohen warned about this very thing in a DOD briefing in GA in 1997...he called it eco-terrorism...
I thought it was ninepins.

"What seemed particularly odd to Rip, was that though these folks were evidently amusing themselves, yet they maintained the gravest faces, the most mysterious silence, and were, withal, the most melancholy party of pleasure he had ever witnessed. Nothing interrupted the stillness of the scene but the noise of the balls, which, whenever they were rolled, echoed along the mountains like rumbling peals of thunder."

Well said. I'm glad I'm not the only one to see think about this possibility on this site. You may have read the Enterprise Misssion web site. Today, there are some spectacular animated gifs on Ophelia and Wilma showing one of the steering mechanisms in action.

Also, on the Enterprise Mission website there are some interesting quotes of Maxwell's poetry showing deep mystical beliefs in the fourth dimension (or fifth, as you see fit). After Maxwell passed away, Heaviside "simplified" his equations by removing the quaternions. Mainstream physics may have discarded these ether-type equations too rapidely.

The quote from Cohen pointed to earthquakes, hurricanes and volcanic eruptions as manifestations of scalar weaponry. I'm not aware of any way to discriminate between these artificial events and the trend of increased activity over the last century. However, three major hurricanes in one year hitting strategic assets in the US would qualify as noteworthy in any sane person's mind. Oh, and their strength and the speed at which they increase is dumbfounding, isn't?

Them scalar weapons probably need heaps of energy to do their thing, a real disadvantage in a peak oil scenario. Maybe there's an alternative energy source. Plenty of cattle manure is available due to the rise of big agribusinesses that don't spread the good stuff on cropland, like the old family farms used to. Then again, no doubt we'd soon run into serious depletion of the cattle manure reserves. So it might be an idea to have a whole bunch of people stand abreast, wire their fillings in series, and hum while chewing on tinfoil. But be very careful that no one has them new plastic fillings and breaks the circuit. And note that it might be an idea to power-up with propeller beanies for steering a category 3 or over...
Right on. I'm trying to parse logic in your post, but I seem to fail completely.

Go on. Read today's post of Enterprise Mission.

Notice the navigation of Ophelia. (I especialy love the part when "bands" appear, moving her out and weakening her at the same time.

Notice the incredible strengthening of Wilma, in an amazingly short span of time. Someone else here said it: she was supposed to be category 2 by now.

It seems that Wilma is going to visit Miami. That would be three storms hitting three vital regions in succession. Then again, I think that there will be more weather manipulation performed to make it a near miss on the city.

Finally, read on about how hyperdimensional physics work. It might be more productive then speculating about manure. It would be harder to detect submarine methane extraction. But that would take away the fun of writing nonsensical responses.

Miami is a vital region?

If someone had the wherewithall to do this, their best bet would be towards Houston again. The US can live without Miami for a while; a huge hit on oil infrastructure, again, would be quite catastrophic for energy supplies and thus the economy.

Pardon me, but this is a claim that a weather ray gun is being used to send hurricanes to attack America. There is absolutely no evidence to believe this speculation. The claim is supported only by references to a website that breathlessly covers every alleged mystery dreamed up by human pseudo science.
As usual, people who assert this kind of stuff claim special rights in the marketplace of ideas. They say we have to deal with their "evidence" of several undeniably large hurricanes PLUS a complete fantasy about a ray gun. But there are better ways to explain why so many hurricanes have formed, and real scientists are using real scientific methods to do just that. The old switcheroo trick in the pseudo science con game is to point at effect, shout a lot, and hope people will get worked up enough to ignore the total lack of evidence for the asserted cause. But the people who use this site are not a bunch of mouthbreathers seeking excitement in place of tonight's drivel on reality TV. Show us one scintilla of compelling evidence that a weather ray gun that can spawn and control hurricanes exists. And don't cite that hokum on "mission enterprise."
No evidence, hum? It's not like a city vanished or something. No wait it did!

Not so long ago, the Church did a nasty trick on Galilleo for lacking faith.

Now, it seems Science has taken up the gauntlet. Never mind for those who dare speak against her holy facade of methods. Never mind, too, that the majority of scientists have often been proven wrong during paradigm shifts.

Just curious. How do you explain Ophelia? You recall her dancing, right? You recall all the computer models being confused? You can see her sudden shift to the Atlantic, as those bands appear?

I happen to have some nifty gifs on my computer. They show her eye, but with a nice triangular shape with 60 degree angles were one would expect a smooth barrel. On IR and visible, if you can believe that. Now, to me, a 60 degree triangle in the middle of a hurricane speaks quite loudly. More so then a fantasy.

So, do we have a fluid specialist in the house to explain?

Tell me too, where all the scientists got it so wrong predicting the strength increase of Wilma? Ah, it's an uncertain science. There's lots of factor. It's unpredictable. The outcome varies according to which model you might use. Rinse, lather, repeat. This "scientific" attitude is certainly nothing like that of a pseudo scientist, right?

I'm curious. Really, curiousity is the first step to understanding. Not methods.

Excuse me, but your logic is--shall we say--fucked.

"There's a lot we can't explain about Ophelia. Therefore, she was guided by a ray gun."

Argument to ignorance, which is a FALLACY.


Especially when you give on yourself the right to put words in my mouth. Did I talk about a ray gun? In any post?

Look deep.

I'm trying to open your eyes to a reality but you fling the skepdic at me. Ultimately, skepticism leads to mental abortion.

If you desire to speak of LOGIC, then referring to a Ray Gun is a STRAWMAN argument.  It is a contrived misrepresentation.  People here (and anywhere) then put faith into the strawman without a proper inquiry...choosing ingnorance.

Being willfully ignorant is anyone's choice, of course.  I respect those who admit they don't want to know.  Admitting it is better than standing behind a strawman.

Hang on there. We are being shown images of hurricanes allegedly manipulated by some sort of electromagnetic force targeted by a device. That describes a ray gun. And if that conclusion is incorrect, then the proponents of the manipulated hurricane theory can fill us in on the missing details, a hole wider than Wilma's eye. At present, all we have from them are suggestions that pretty much indicate they're talking about a ray gun (keep in mind that a gun can be an enormous device). You can't build a strawman argument if the other side is only blowing hot air.
Thank you, s. Took the words right out of my mouth.
same here MikeB. We've been doing an online version of cleaning the Augean stables. Old Hercules had neither ray gun nor keyboard, so he diverted a couple of rivers instead. A bit of a shame, really, as compared to the present fetid business plenty of good BS went to down to the deep.
My friedns and relatives believe 'We're running out of oil.' just as much as they believe 'Someone is controling the weather.' I guess scientific proof is in the eye of the beholder.
I believe we're running out of cheap oil.  If someone can control the weather to the point of creating and directing Cat 5 hurricanes, they probably deserve to rule the world.  

I once read a series of sci-fi stories about a weather council becoming the world's governing body.  As I recall, they sent heat-resistant ships to the sun to modulate the amount of sunlight hitting any area on Earth, which gave them unanticipated political power.

Apples and oranges, amigo. Good peak oil arguments are an hypothesis that supplies are finite and that we've consumed nearly half of them. There are good reasons to believe the supply of oil is finite. There are plausible reasons to believe that we might be about to peak out in our exploitation of those resources, especially because we've seen that happen in a very large number of countries.
We have to guess about oil reserves because so many countries won't furnish the requisite data. So there is lots of uncertainty about peak. Note that one doesn't have to bring in a hidden conspiracy and other completely speculative mechanisms to explain why we can't get the data.
Contrast the above with the assertions that ray guns or other implements are controlling the weather. A few efforts at cloud seeding do not a ray gun make.
When the ray-gun club produces evidence of one (and no, radar shots of "manipulated" hurricanes aren't evidence of the gun), then we can talk facts - as we usually do about peak oil on this list until people who have other agendas interrupt the discussion. Surely there are other places on the net where they'd feel more comfortable. Maybe they'd even get to feel one of those guns...
I am 100% with you on peak oil. I show the information to people I know and they see conspiracy. They believe this whole peak oil thing is created by the oil companies to make money. Thanks for this space where I can feel sane.
About the strength of Wilma:  I've noticed today that the eye wall is much larger.  It seems that the storm is "stronger" now in a way because the 150 mph winds extend out much farther than 175 mph winds did just days ago.  

So a small eye in a strong CAT 5 will do less overall damage than a large eye wall of a medium to strong CAT 3 or 4.

What do you think?

Folks may choose to believe this stuff, but a few muttered comments by Cohen - or Rumsfeld, I don't care what your political persuasion is - should be cause for us all to believe in this stuff.

  1. No credible evidence exists, but plenty of conspiracy theory speculation does.

  2. Usually the simplest explaination tends to be the right one. There were weather cycles long before there was any ability to do more than dream about nuclear weapons let alone dream up, build, and deploy climate changing weapons.

  3. If indeed the US had been attacked numerous times by a climate weapon you can bet the US military would have dropped a H bomb or two on someone else, even it wasn't the right target.

  4. Eco-weapons is a rather convenient excuse to role out and deflect attention away from the simplest and most plausible explanation ... man pumping millions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere at an accelerating rate is changing the planetary climate.

That or its a natural cycle, you take your pick. I favour the former because its common sense.
Of course I meant to say "should not be reason for us all to believe in this stuff".

Yup, lets believe in the fanciful so we can avoid doing what makes sense.

Fine. Call it speculation.

There are cycles. No argument there. That's the long term trend of increasing earthquakes and volcanoes since the beginning of the century. There's slowing of the Gulf Stream, which is keeping a lot more warm water further south, in turn helping the formation of hurricanes. These cycles are so long term that we know next to nothing of them.

You know, I am sure about Sun Tzu Art of War. You also certainly must recall how he says that you must attack where it is unexpected. That's the great wonder of these natural weapons. They have built in deniability.

But have a look a the now-classic Chinese text, Unrestricted Warfare.

Atomic warfare

Conventional warfare

Bio-chemical warfare

Ecological warfare

Space warfare

Electronic warfare

Guerrilla warfare

Terrorist warfare

Diplomatic warfare

Network warfare

Intelligence warfare

Psychological warfare

Tactical warfare

Smuggling warfare

Drug warfare

Virtual warfare (deterrence)

Trade warfare

Resources warfare

Economic aid warfare

Regulatory warfare

Sanction warfare

Media warfare

Ideological warfare

In all these domains, the authors suggests that they must not be seen as conventional attacks (airplanes, tanks) and thus will slip by unnoticed by the US military.You can have a lot more fun by reading the translation yourself.

Finally, what would be the tactical use of making a few million people drive at a time when refineries are not exactly underworked? What would be the psychological use to terrorize all these millions? To remove the invincibility aura of the US?

Well, Paradox...I imagine what is most paradoxical about waging war by using these tactics is that the people who laugh and mock are the very people whom the weapons defeat...like those scoffers everywhere that are not humble enough to do the research and learn for themselves about such matters.  

The fact that people make fun of these weapons is evidence that they work!    

"Condemnation without investigation is the height of ignorance."  --Albert Einstein

Of course it is more comfortable and convenient for some people to remain willfully ignorant.  Weather warfare and modification is too much of a leap outside the confines of our neat little paradigm.  Information abounds for any who dare entertain and investigate; yet, for the aforementioned reasons, most enjoy scoffing more than true scholarship and inquiry.

These storms (and coming earthquakes, which may even coincide with the next major storm) are part of the tactical economic war aimed at the US.  We are already slaves to our creditors (Chinese for one)...they are just waiting for the chance to pull the plug on the Almighty Greenback which long ago replaced the God that our money says we trust.

We'll be on standby for Wilma... let's just hope the BIG ONE doesn't go off in CA at the same time...they are already getting those tremors on the pacific islands.

Feel free to show us proof at any time, drew.

I'm not saying you're wrong or right.  But I do believe very strongly in the old adage about extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary proof.

Convince me this is true, and I'll help you tell the world.  Fail to convince me, and I'll consider it just one more unproven thing I read online.

Let's suppose, just for a moment, that a terrible, new and amazing weapon existed and you were privy to its existence. Do you think this kind of weapon and the knowledge of it would be allowed to circulate freely?

It's the same about any kind of important secret, for money, sex, whatever.

I hope at least that you'll remember this as time goes on and these forces of nature impress themselves forcefully on front page news.

I've found that evidence does abound, yet is not in your face like the Michael Jackson trial.  However, The Wall Street Journal reported in 1997 that Malaysia wanted to battle city smog by using a typhoon's rain and wind to come close enough (but not too close) for cleansing purposes.  ( "Malaysia to Battle Smog With Cyclones", by Chen May Yee, Staff Reporter of the Wall Street Journal, The Wall Street Journal, Thursday, November 13, 1997, page A19.)  Here is where you might start your research.

--the UN adpoted a relolution against nations using these weapons against each other...you can read the text of the treaty here at the US state dept. http://www.state.gov/t/ac/trt/4783.htm

--US Senate Bill 517: Weather Modification Research and Technology Transfer Act, legislation passed by the US Congress as Bill S-517 on March 3, 2005.

--Veitnam war history reports of weather control by US forces, locally creating rain and fog against the enemy

--US Patent Office--weather modification devices have patents


Remember that scientific evidence available to the public is several to many years behind the esoteric government and military knowledge.  That is why so much is classified.  Weapons and how they work must be kept secret.  This is common sense war strategy.  

You've challenged me with providing evidence; I now challenge you to do your homework.  We can then continue our dialogue about the implications of weather warfare.

Wow! Michael Chricton posts on this website?!?! Can I get an autograph?
I thought Washington Irving wrote Rip Van Winkle
The current (and since 2001) building code in Florida has a minimum design windspeed of 100 mph only in a few northern counties.  Everywhere else is, and has been above this windspeed.  The ASCE design criteria for the state was adopted by the statewide building code in 2001.  Even the old southern building code was 100 mph.  The wind speed map for all of Polk county is in the 110 mph wind zone.
I'm having a hard believing that the storm will do a 90 deg. right turn to the east on Saturday!
Me too, but that's the NHC guidance.
Last September:
-Hurricane Jeanne killed some 1100+ people in Haiti
-Went sailing out to sea
-Did a loop-de-loop
-Went straight west for some 1500 miles and ripped off the rest of my roof.

I no longer question any wacky paths hurricanes take.  They go where they wish.

Tampa ranked #3 for US hurricane damages:

Most of the 3-million folks in the larger Tampa Bay area do not realize just how lucky they were to avoid Hurricane Charley. Researchers in 2002 estimated a Category 5 hurricane (one notch up from Charley) striking the Tampa Bay area would cause more than $25-billion in insured losses - 60 percent higher than Andrew's hit in 1992 - and more than $50-billion in total losses.


Mechanicsville (VA) distributor John Zehler Jr. said it is not clear that reports about falling gasoline demand, which partially prompted lower prices, are correct. Also, Zehler said lower prices may discourage gasoline imports, which have helped lower prices and have compensated for Gulf Coast refinery production that remain shut down because of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD/MGArticle/RTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArtic le&cid=1128767598975

According to the path forecast the entire State of FL will have to be on alert to evac.  FL does not have enough gas to get everyone out, where ever "out" is and then come back.  

Cascading Systems failure-once the evacs get back there will not be gas.  Floridians will have to literally follow gas tankers back into affected areas.

Will Floridians still have to give back FEMA aid from Francis now?

Off topic but timely... as I noted last week, demand reduction appeared to be bottoming out. This week we see some confirmation:

Today's EIA report:
Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged over 20.0 million barrels per day, or 3.2 percent less than averaged over the same period last year.  Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 8.9 million barrels per day, or 2.2 percent below the same period last year.  Distillate fuel demand has averaged over 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 4.0 percent below the same period last year.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/curren t/txt/wpsr.txt

Last week's:
Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged over 20.0 million barrels per day, or 2.8 percent less than averaged over the same period last year.  Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged over
8.8 million barrels per day
, or 2.4 percent below the same period last year.  Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 4.0 percent below the same period last year.

Here's what the models show: But notice how the hurricane itself has shifted to a more westerly direction. Judge for yourself: Oh, come on now. If you want to be taken seriously, don't put forward that an eyeball view of a few hours of satellite footage gives you a better guess of the future storm track than the scientific models that meteorologists use.
That said, The intensity of this hurricanr has increased at a MUCH higher pace than suggested by those very same models. See
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/ and look at the predicted intensity levels by the various models at various times. By this time, it was predicted to continue to be a cat 2 hurricane, and not cat high cat5 hurricane. In fact the predictions 2 days ago had the velocities coming back to tropical storm levels by today!
"There has never been a hurricane like Wilma before. With an unbelievable round of intensification that saw the pressure drop 87 mb in just 12 hours, Wilma smashed the all-time record for lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane this morning. The 4 am hurricane hunter report put the pressure at 882 mb, easily besting the previous record of 888 mb set in Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Since no hurricane hunter airplane has been in the eye since then, Wilma may be even stronger now. The eye diameter of Wilma during this round of intensification shrunk as low as 2 nautical miles, which may be the smallest eye diameter ever measured in a tropical cyclone. The only eye I could find close to that small in the records was a 3 nm one, the Category 4 Typhoon Jeliwat in 2000."

The rapid increase in the wind is proably due to the eye shrinking. When it expands the wind speed should slow.

The fact that the weather model was incorrect regarding intensification doesn't mean that an "eyeball look" at its current course will improve upon the weather model.  It should be equally likely that the easternward swerve isn't extreme enough.
I think it's basically a guessing game.   My subjective observation from watching hurricane tracks and models over the last few years is that the models don't do very well.  They tend to be qualitatively right, but not quantitively right.  If they say it will turn right, it usually does, but not always when they say, or by how much they say.  There have been a number of occasions when they keep insisting it's about to turn, any hour now, etc, etc, but it keeps barreling along and they have to keep revising where they predict it's going to go.  So I don't set too much stock in them.  I don't think we really know where it's going to go after the next day or so.
From the latest advisory -




You've got to appreciate their unvarnished honesty.
Yep--sounds like a bunch of scientists, if you ask me.
I'm trying to understand what is going to turn the storm so dramatically East. There is no high pressure system in the vicinity - closest one is in the Pacific off the Mexican coast. There is a front moving through the Plains right now. Anyway, it should be interesting to follow - my prayers are that it weakens before making landfall. It could be pretty scary if another Cat. 4-5 hits anywhere.


It borders on gobbledygook to me (I'm a numbers guy, not a weather person), here's the discussion posted at Accuweather:

High pressure in mid-levels of the atmosphere across the central and western Gulf of Mexico has actually remained fairly strong and that explains why Wilma has been moving more west than north during Tuesday night. An upper-level storm system moving out of the southwestern states will head northeastward and cause this upper-level high to weaken, especially over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This upper-level storm will also cause southwesterly winds to increase over the western and central Gulf by Friday. So, as this upper-level high weakens Wilma will sense this weakening and move more northwest then north during late Wednesday and Thursday. As the upper-level system from the Southwest moves toward the Great Lakes on Friday, Wilma will turn more northerly then move on a more northeasterly course later Friday and Friday night. Based on this reasoning, Wilma could make landfall over the southwest coast of Florida late Saturday or Saturday night then quickly move over southern Florida. The southwest steering winds should help shove the hurricane east of Florida on Sunday. At that point, Wilma should be moving faster and will pull away from Florida fairly quickly, but there is increasing concern that the storm is captured by the upper-level storm and then heads northeastward toward New England or eastern Canada early next week.
So, what we find here is that predictions of Wilma's path depends on 3 to 4 days out weather forecasting -- which is highly uncertain...
Well the models are shifting again. Now CLP5 (as of 1200 UTC 10/19/2005) which has typically been more accurate than other models (at this stage of the storm for Katrina and Rita) is showing a 5 day track taking Wilma out to the Central Gulf
CLP5 should be ignored for tropical cyclones.
why should SLP5's be ignored?
It's because a cold front will be push it towards Florida.

"While Wilma is moving toward the Yucatan Channel, a cold front will move south and east from the northern Rocky Mountains and begin to turn Wilma to the northeast toward the southwest Florida coast shortly after she enters the Gulf of Mexico."


I've been wondering about Wilma's impact on offshore production in the southern Gulf of Mexico.  At the moment, Wilma is predicted to pass 450 miles to the east of Mexico's Cantarell field, so there shouldn't be any damage to production platforms.