As Fred Flintstone would say: "WILMA!!!".

Yikes! i noticed on the 5 day projection that it takes a sharp turn to the right.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/231353.shtml?5day

i am not aware or even sure of any projected high pressure pushing it out to the right. but if a high pressure does not get there in time to move it, then i imagine it will continue on a more WNW path to central GOMEX. I don't think the waters of the gulf are as warm now as they were 2 weeks ago. so that should help keep it from blossoming to something substantial. nonetheless, it has potential to disrupt oil and gas production AGAIN. note if it turns hard right as projected, then it goes to FLA where there is not much oil and gas.

The public advisories from the NHC are not very helpful.  Read the discussions.  Here is Discussion #2.  It is way too early to be too specific, but this will probably become a hurricane, and there is a reasonable chance that it could go into a rapid deepening phase and become a major hurricane.  IMHO, we'll see a Category 4 making its way into the Gulf of Mexico.  It could affect the Northeast Gulf Coast, which would be a bit of bad news for oil if the easternmost concentrations of rigs are affected.  However, odds are that it will hit the western or southern Florida coast.  In fact, one scenario is that Wilma could devastate the Keys but spare the Florida mainland.

While the Gulf of Mexico isn't as conducive for strengthening as it was prior to Katrina and Rita, a strong hurricane can still be supported.  The development stage will occur in the Caribbean, which has been undisturbed for several months.  AFAIK, TD 24/Wilma will go nowhere fast in the next several days.  

F.Y.I.
If your interested in real time Sat. images go to
WWW.ssec.wisc.edu. This is where all the Sat images are received and agencies like NOAA, N.A.S.A, CNN, etc. get their Sat. images from. Ssec does not do forcasting they only post the most recent Sat. images.

Before I go ahead and say this I should say that I feel horrible about the loss of life from Katrina and Rita and also am slightly pleased with the "artificial" shock they imposed. But that's not the main point. I wanted to point out that in many ways we are all very concerned with how hurricanes interact with the gulf area, so if a hurricane is in that general area i feel that there is the potential to overemphasize its chances of going north. Now two big storms did go through the oil producingparts of the gulf this season, but I think we should recognize how our various "lenses" may be colouring things.

While the storm has not taken that sharp turn to right as was projected 5 days out, it is running straight towards the gulf. The water temp has hardly changed since a month ago. see the link! Soooo, once it gets inside the gulf, well you know the rest..........

note:
  http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/sst.html

The forecast path is a curve to the right following the Yucatan shoreline and off to Miami as a Cat3.

I'm not about to engage in a week of second guessing what this storm will do.

Wait till Friday, we'll know more.  

Wilma could brush the Yucatan, but then it will make a huge right turn.  I don't think it will miss Florida to the south, but who knows?  When we speak of differences of opinion about the various factors in play here, we are talking about the difference between Tampa Bay, Ft. Myers, or Miami.  Tallahassee is the furthest north and west I could foresee Wilma going.  This is not a north central or northwest Gulf hurricane.  Why is this so?  There will be a HUGE trough making its way into the south.  Just look at the cold overnight lows that are forecasted for many locations!  The subtropical ridge will be completely eroded by the shortwave.  

About intensity: right now it is hard to say that this will develop into more than a strong Category 2 hurricane, but a Category 4 or even a 5 is very possible.  For the most part, conditions seem favorable for a major hurricane.  Forward speed is very important, because Wilma will quickly encounter tougher conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.  If it moves rapidly toward Florida, it won't have very much time to weaken.  With a slower speed, it will be very hard to maintain major hurricane status.  Rita had nearly ideal conditions for most of the way, but it was slow moving, and we saw how it couldn't maintain its peak intensity for very long.

Bear in mind that hurricane Stan, which did not get much attention here, caused huge damage in Mexico, Guatamala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and other places down in Central America. Most of the model runs go right over the Yucatan.

on the plus side "peak oil" has made it into usa today

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2005-10-16-oil-1a-cover-usat_x.htm

nothing new but nice to see simmons in the msm

The prospect of another serious hurricane puts some of us in the mood to discuss the End Times as reported in today's NY Times. After all, we've had the tsunami, Katrina, Rita, the earthquake in Pakistan -- there's apparently no end to signs and portents.

But after last week's devastating earthquake in Pakistan, coming as it did after a succession of recent disasters, the apocalyptic speculation, bubbled up again with impressive fervor on many Christian blogs, in some pews and among some evangelical Christian leaders.

Combined with fears of a global pandemic of avian flu, the calamitous flooding that followed Hurricane Katrina and last year's tsunami in Asia, the predictions of the end of the world are to be expected, religious historians said. After all, Christians have been predicting the end of history since the beginning of theirs.

"The doomsday scenarios are fairly cyclical," said Randall Balmer, a professor of American religious history at Barnard College. "The theology they are based on is a very linear view of history. They believe we are now ramping up to the end of time."

I'm getting hysterical about the coming Bird Flu Pandemic, aren't you? You don't want to miss the boat on this one. You could be next!

But what of this "linear view of history"? I see no linearity in recent events and all this misses the point if you're looking for Signs of the Apocalypse. Consider this: Last year, the Boston Red Sox overcame the Curse of the Bambino and won the World Series for the first time since 1918. And now, the Chicago White Sox, who have not won since 1917, who last won the pennent in 1959 and who "threw" the 1919 series -- are they not cursed? -- are threatening to win it all this year. Surely, this portends The End. If the White Sox win the World Series this year and the Cubs win it all next year, I will be forced to conclude that God is cleaning up some Unfinished Business before putting an End to Our Suffering.

I conclude then that the signs are definitely there, but I myself, with regard to Wilma and the End of Time, will take a "wait and see" attitude.

Here is what various models predict about the path of Wilma. Most models still take it over the Yucatan into the Gulf.

Actually, the models seem to indicate that south Florida is probably screwed.