Reading Are We Heading Toward Peak Fertilizer?,above, there's this...

These two elements cannot be made, cannot be substituted, are necessary to grow all life forms, and are mined and depleted. It’s a scary set of statements. Former Soviet states and Canada have more than 70% of the potash. Morocco has 85% of all high-grade phosphates. It is the most important quasi-monopoly in economic history.

...so I decided to take a tour of the Western Sahara "phosphate monopoly". The mine can be seen here at Bou Craa, Laâyoune-Boujdour-Sakia El Hamra, Western Sahara. Mined rock phosphate is transfered via a 150 km long conveyor belt to the coast, here. In the first Google link, one can see the conveyor heading off to the northwest.

As I was expecting some sort of massive operation, I was a bit surprised that it's quite small compared to other mining operations I've seen. Since the Western Sahara produces virtually none of its own food, with the exception of a small fishing industry, it's interesting to note that the future of global agriculture may lie there. More here:

Phosphate: A Critical Resource Misused and Now Running Low

The world’s food supplies are alarmingly dependent on the phosphate fertilizer that is hewn from the desert of the Western Sahara. The vast open-cast mine at Bou Craa delivers several million tons of phosphate rock every year down a 150-kilometer-long conveyor belt, the world’s longest, to the Atlantic port of El Ayoun. From there, it is distributed around the world and made into fertilizer.

Morocco’s phosphate reserves are owned by the Office Cherifien des Phosphates, a Moroccan state agency. Given the almost unlimited executive powers of the Moroccan monarch, it might reasonably be said that most of the world's known reserves of phosphate are, in effect, owned by King Mohammed VI and his Alaouite dynasty, which has reigned in Morocco since the 17th century...

...It takes one ton of phosphate to produce every 130 tons of grain, which is why the world mines about 170 million tons of phosphate rock every year to ship around the world and keep soils fertile.

Currently, only about 15 percent of that comes from mines in the Western Sahara and Morocco. But the only other large producers, the U. S. and China, mostly keep supplies for their own use. So Morocco is by far the biggest contributor to international trade, with more than half the total business. The people of India, the world’s largest importer, would be starving without Morocco’s phosphates. Brazil’s agricultural boom would never have happened otherwise.

Even more critically in the longer term, the U.S. Geological Survey says that of the 65 billion tons of the world’s known phosphate rock reserves — and the estimated 16 billion tons that might be economic to mine — almost 80 percent is in Western Sahara and Morocco. Add in China’s reserves, and the figure rises to almost 90 percent. The U.S., with 1.4 billion tons, is close to running out. You can see why agronomists are starting to get worried.

[bold added]

It seems that this conveyor belt is the link to feeding over a billion people.

Re: Synthetic fuels could eliminate entire US need for crude oil, create 'new economy'

This story points to an report published back in June. One wonders why this optimistic presentation is being dragged up just now, is it something to do with the Qatar conference on climate change?

The story repeats the usual claims that biomass will supply enough energy to fuel the US transport system, using only non-food crops or agricultural "waste", ignoring the problem of keeping the production going. what is now considered "waste" is returned to the land and keeps the top soil healthy. There's also the suggestion that coal would be used as well, though the biomass option makes it appear that everything will be OK. Of course, the use of coal would produce the synthetic fuel with the least cost, so one can see which direction this effort might actually take...

E. Swanson

The Electricity Age will see an era more comprehensively dominated by policy, as the powergrid becomes the mechanism for governments to shape the future of energy demand.

Trying to imagine what striking back at the grid would look like, my best guess is microgrids with neighbourhood microCHP and PV with storage. The latter is edging closer to residential tariffs in Germany.

http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/current/2012/kw42/1...

Lots of stuff on microCHP in German at www.photovoltaikforum.com (latest are fuel cell units). Biomass based ones hadn't made it yet at my last visit.

Serge

AMSC is cutting its workforce by 25 percent

AMSC, a Devens company that provides technology and products to wind energy companies and power grid operators, said Wednesday that it has reduced its workforce by 25 percent, a move that will leave it with a global headcount of 340 employees.

“While the long-term prospects for renewable energy remain bright, conditions in the sector today are challenging,” AMSC president and chief executive Daniel P. McGahn. “Financing and cash flow among wind farm developers and wind turbine manufacturers have been constrained, which has impacted growth plans for some of our Windtec Solutions partners. Given this environment, we made the difficult but prudent decision to reduce our workforce in order to weather the industry downturn and minimize our cash usage.”

AMSC, which is also known as American Superconductor, is embroiled in a lawsuit with Sinovel Wind Group, a Chinese wind turbine maker that was once AMSC’s largest customer. AMSC alleges that Sinovel stole its intellectual property. Sinovel once accounted for nearly 80 percent of AMSC’s revenues.

... China bites again.

Links between climate change and population growth

Rapid population growth and fossil fuel emissions are two leading characteristics of our modern age. Since 1800, world population has grown sevenfold, while per capita CO2 emissions have increased 150 times. Put the two together, and you have about 1,100 times as much in terms of emissions.

... A 2005 London School of Economics study concluded that, if each of us living in a highly developed country reduced our carbon footprint by 40 percent over 40 years, all of that would be cancelled by our present population growth rates alone. And that doesn’t even take into account the fact that emissions will rise dramatically if and when billions of people are able to escape from poverty.

2022: Cheap flights, more rail and hands-free cars

... In the air, the trend toward low-cost airlines and so-called "a la carte" pricing will likely become the accepted norm, as fliers finally accept a business model that reminds us: nothing is free and everything costs. By 2022, say experts, the consumer war over having to pay for every airline perk and option from pillows to snacks to window seats to legroom will be over.

Number crunchers will win. Grumblers will lose. ... "A lot of people who don't like this trend have in their minds the way it used to be," said Snyder. "They think that's how it should be."

... Across the nation's sprawling rail lines, experts anticipate several states from coast to coast will continue investing in trains that connect regional cities. And the future looks bright, analysts say, for the nation's urban light rail and tramway systems.

Still, U.S. train ridership ranks very low compared with other nations. The number of passengers on Amtrak and commuter rail total about 500 million a year, Freemark said. Compare that to the United Kingdom, a country five times smaller than the United States, which counted 1.35 billion rail riders last year.

Nineteen Atlantic tropical storms 3 consecutive years: a very rare event

How rare are 3 consecutive top-five hurricane seasons for named storms?

It is tremendously rare to get three consecutive top-five years in a database with a 162-year record. This would occur randomly just once every 34,000 years--assuming the database were unbiased, the climate were not changing, and a multi-year climate pattern favorable for active seasons were not present.

... the top ten busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851:

2005: 28
1887: 25
1933: 23
1995: 20
2012, 2011, 2010, 1969, 1936: 19

and on the left coast ... River of rain headed toward Bay Area

... An "atmospheric river" of rain will storm into the Bay Area on Wednesday morning and unleash torrents of precipitation across the region through Sunday, forecasters said.

The driving rain and blowing wind will wallop everything from bridges to houses and leaf-covered trees. Small urban floods and power failures are all but guaranteed.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/shauntanner/show.html?entrynum=220
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/of2010-1312_text.pdf
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~jnorris/weather_disc/AtmRivers.pdf
http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/massive-west-coast-atmosp...

Innovative method inexpensively and energetically efficiently reduces CO2 emissions

... The TU Darmstadt's pilot-scale "carbonate-looping" method research system proved capable of capturing more than 90 % of the CO2 emitted, while reducing both the energy input and operating costs formerly required for CO2 capture by more than 50 %. Yet another benefit of the "carbonate-looping" method is that it may be retrofitted to existing power plants.

Study shows trends in public and private agricultural R&D

Research discussed in the article notes that globally, most of the increase in agricultural production over the past 50 years can largely be attributed to rising crop and livestock yields rather than to the expansion of acreage devoted to farming.

Findings reported in the Science article include:

•Globally, about half or more of all private investment in food and agricultural research and development have been devoted to food manufacturing, not toward input industries and other areas that directly increase agricultural production.
•Recent increases in private agricultural input research have mostly centered on crops, including farm machinery and some biofuels investments; livestock-related research and crop protection chemicals have experienced less growth.
•Research into biofuels has become increasingly important, with estimated global investments by private companies at approximately $1.47 billion in 2009.
•Private spending contributed to the overall growth in R&D for agricultural in the face of slowing or stagnant public R&D resources, but addressed a narrower set of research topics and input industries than publicly funded R&D.

Arctic melt 'irreversible' and under global radar

The world is on the cusp of a ''tipping point'' into dangerous climate change, according to new data gathered by scientists measuring methane leaking from the Arctic permafrost and a report presented to the UN on Tuesday.

Independent lines of evidence show human greenhouse gas emissions are warming the Arctic and triggering the release of more methane, carbon dioxide and other gases.

''The permafrost carbon feedback is irreversible on human timescales,'' according the report, Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost. ''Overall, these observations indicate that large-scale thawing of permafrost may already have started.''

Canada not ready for Arctic 'great melt,' report says

... Canadian planning for the vast region in the midst of a "great melt" - one that places the Arctic "at the cusp of tremendous economic development" - is still plainly "inadequate," according to a new report by a Canadian team of foreign policy and marine transportation experts.

The report, issued by the Waterloo, Ont.-based Centre for International Governance Innovation, highlights the "urgent need" for a more coherent approach to planning the Arctic's future and greater co-operation with the U.S. and corporate players in preparing for the coming development boom - including oil-and-gas development, tourism and trans-Arctic shipping.

China Planning 'Huge Fracking Industry'

China is ratcheting up its fracking ambitions with virtually no regard for groundwater protection or other environmental safety measures, according to a new investigation by the independent publication Caixin. The report points to an 24 October white paper on energy development released by China's top cabinet which "calls for ramping up the industry and pumping 6.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas from underground shale formations by 2015." ... "Geologists estimate the nation's recoverable reserves at about 25 trillion cubic meters, on par with the United States."

... If fracking takes off in China as planned, it will likely exacerbate the nation's existing water crisis. "Most of the nation's shale gas lies in areas plagued by water shortages," the report says. With about 20 percent of the world's population and only 6 percent of the world's water resources, China is one of the least water-secure countries in the world.

In order to reach the government's annual shale gas production goal of 6.5 billion cubic meters by 2015, as many as 1,380 wells will need to be drilled across the country, requiring up to 13.8 million cubic meters of water, an industry source told Caixin. China's industrial sector already consumes about 35 billion cubic meters of water a year.

... Meanwhile, Caixin reported that one test fracking operation in Shaanxi Province—a major coal region in China's dry North—recently "went awry, forcing local officials to temporarily cut a nearby city's water supply." [Oops!]

Japan's newest floating train is one blistering maglev

The country known for its fast and efficient rail lines this month draws fresh attention after recently unveiling a magnetic levitation train that can travel at speeds over 310 mph. Japan is looking beyond its bullet train system as rail developers seek to excel globally once again, by offering a next-generation, no-wheels maglev (magnetic levitation) system. The maglev trains are frictionless, faster and are quieter than trains that use wheels.

The new trains that are scheduled to go into use in 2027 are to link Shinagawa Station, in central Tokyo, with Nagoya and will travel at about 311 mph. It takes 90 minutes for a conventional, speedy bullet train to complete the journey between the two stations. The new train would complete the same trip in 40 minutes.

Researchers Examine 'Nestedness' of Industrial Ecosystems

Biodiversity is a complex phenomenon that emerges from the combination of a large number of ecological mechanisms. Yet, despite the complexity of its origins, there is one prevalent pattern that always appears to emerge. This is a pattern known as "nestedness," which is expressed in the fact that the less ecologically diverse locations tend to be populated by subsets of the species present in the most ecologically diverse locations. Hence, biological ecosystems are characterized by an emergent order in which there is little evidence of specialization, since the rare species locate only in places that are already inhabited by many others.

But does this apply to industrial ecosystems? Are these also nested? ... A paper published this week in PLoS ONE, using data on both international and domestic economies, shows that this appears to be the case. The paper shows that, just like biological ecosystems, economies are highly nested, and that these mimic the patterns of the ecological networks found in nature.

The study also looks at the theoretical implications of nestedness by using a model of industry locations networks. The researchers found that the model is able to account for both—the nestedness of the network and its dynamics.

"This paper shows that the evolution of industrial ecosystems follows patterns that have an important degree of predictability, and hence, demonstrate a fundamental constraint on how we expect the world economy to evolve during the coming years. Moreover, the fact that these patterns can be explained by a simple statistical model raises doubts about whether rational decision making is needed to explain macroeconomic patterns like the ones uncovered in this paper."

Full article: The Dynamics of Nestedness Predicts the Evolution of Industrial Ecosystems

Up top: "Climate "changing before our eyes" - World Meteorological Organization"

Well close them!! A public service announcement brought to you by the republican party.

Sinkhole update ... Sinkhole 'Event'

An event occurred at the sinkhole around 11:30 pm today which is being considered as a “burp”. Vegetative debris and hydrocarbons came up from below the sinkhole. A few trees in the southwest corner did fall in however most of the debris came from below the sinkhole. Texas Brine removed all crews from the sinkhole and is checking the boom surrounding the area to make sure everything is intact.

A video from the sinkhole, post-event is posted at:

http://www.youtube.com/user/assumptionla

Settling/shifting of material underlying sinkhole created disturbance of water in sinkhole in morning roughly coinciding with USGS report of observance of seismic activity – crude oil emulsion and woody debris from sinkhole bottom observed rising to surface, water from nearby swamp seen flowing into sinkhole. Surface activity observed for several minutes before water calmed again.

Socar of Azerbaijan Produces Less Oil in First 10 Months of Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-28/socar-of-azerbaijan-produces-le...

"Azerbaijan...saw total crude production fall 7.7 percent to 36 million tons in the 10 months

Goldman Sachs' Global Coup D'etat

... There’s one tie that binds Lucas Papademos in Greece, Henry Paulsen in the United States, and Mark Carney in the U.K., and that’s Goldman Sachs. All were former bankers and executives at the Wall Street giant, all assumed prominent positions of power, and all played a hand after the global financial meltdown of 2007-08, thus making sure Goldman Sachs weathered the storm and made significant profits in the process.

But that's just scratching the surface.

As Europe descends into an austerity-induced economic crisis, Goldman Sachs's people are managing the demise of the continent. As the British newspaper The Independent reported earlier this year, the Conservative technocrats currently steering or who have steered post-crash fiscal policy in Greece, Germany, Italy, Belgium, France, and now the UK, all hail from Goldman Sachs. In fact, the head of the European Central Bank itself, Mario Draghi, was the former managing director of Goldman Sachs International.

Steadily – and stealthily – Goldman Sachs is carrying out a global coup d’etat.

Skills shortage constrains Norway's oil industry: study

* Demand for engineers could rise 40 pct in 2011-2016
* 84 pct of surveyed firms suffer from skill shortage
* Norway's engineer shortage could reach 8,000 by 2016

Norway, Europe's second-biggest gas supplier and the world's eighth-largest oil exporter, has struggled with falling output in recent years and needs to bring new fields online to boost production. ... Another big risk to the sector is the lack of spare capacity as delays, which are quite common, could have a snowball effect, impacting other projects in the pipeline.

To cope with the labour shortage, the oil industry, which makes up a fifth of the economy, is establishing engineering and manufacturing bases overseas and continues to move capacity away from the biggest cities, where unemployment rates are the lowest, the report said.

The ratio of foreign workers in the sector rose to 10 percent by 2010 from just 6 percent in 2003 and several sectors are in "fierce" competition to attract labour both from within and overseas, the study said.

Oil Pipeline from ND to Okla. Canceled

... Tulsa-based Oneok Partners LP announced Tuesday that the Bakken Crude Express Pipeline won't be built.

Oneok says the outlook for crude oil supply is robust but it could not get enough producers to promise long-term use of the 1,300-mile pipeline.

Oneok says the pipeline would have moved 200,000 barrels of oil from the Williston Basin in the Bakken Shale in Montana and North Dakota.

Sort of a Campfire question:

Powerball jackpot hits $550 million

I'm curious to know from TODers, if they were the sole winner of the Powerball lottery, what they would use the money for to make a difference.

After 2008, our small county shelved plans to build a new school, so, after stashing away perhaps $20 million for my own self-gratification, leaving +- $300 million, I would fully fund the new school and include all of the things that taxpayers would be unlikely or unable to fund:

Super-efficient design, PV powered and grid interactive (capable of functioning without the grid). It would have everything needed to function as community center/shelter for a reasonable time period in the event of natural catastrophe, etc..

Look into a facility-wide composting system (toilets, etc.)

Bring back agriculture and trade curricula. Build an adjacent sub-campus for sustainable agriculture open to the public (continuing education). Create a foundation to fund these programs in perpetuity (or for as long as possible). Get school kids and their family members to grow food for the school cafeteria and for sale. Green houses and aquaculture/aquaponics would be nice.

Include a library/archive loaded with actual books and other non-electronic media.

Bike trails everywhere...

Personally, I would buy as much adjacent property (to ours) as is available, and get a few goats. I would also insist that my home be exempted from property taxes in perpetuity. Hey, I bought 5 chances in 175 million. One can always dream...

A must read for Darwinian, and everyone else really. Nice to see reality being addressed quantitatively in a GSA science article.

http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/22/12/article/i1052-5173-22-1...

It seems to me that peak oil should be mentioned in this article given that there is a section on overshoot, but a glance at the GSA corporate sponsor page is all the explanation I need as to why it's not.

http://www.geosociety.org/aboutus/sponsor.htm

but gee, it's only a theory, right?

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044035/article

Why Global Fuel Prices Will Spark the Next Revolutions

While the demonstrators that have mobbed the streets of Amman for two weeks now are demanding the overthrown of King Abdullah — a criminal offense in Jordan — it’s not the demand for democracy that sparked their protests. Instead, thousands of Jordanians have been spurred to act by a more basic issue: the rising price of gas after the government withdrew its subsidies. Jordanians are hardly alone in their anger. Governments across the world are attempting to wean their citizens off subsidized fossil fuels...

But fuel subsidies are becoming increasingly untenable as governments face mounting budget deficits in a weakening global economy, amid oil prices that have remained above $100 a barrel since 2010. Jordan lifted subsidies in order to secure a $2 billion IMF loan in the face of a $3.2 billion shortfall in a budget that devotes $2.3 billion annually to subsidizing fuel and other basics.

... Cutting fuel subsidies, however, will be a massive political risk to many governments — as the recent events in Jordan demonstrate. Indonesia dropped plans last April to raise gas and diesel prices by 33%, after thousands of people protested the move. Iran, which spent a whopping $82 billion on fuel subsidies last year, quietly shelved a plan earlier this year to raise gas prices, fearing that inflation could spark protests.

Last January, thousands of people in Nigeria — Africa’s biggest oil producer — fought deadly street battles with police after the government cut its fuel subsidies resulting in a doubling of fuel prices. After weeks of rioting, the government finally lowered the gas prices by one-third, leaving the cost about 50% higher than the previous subsidized price.

Preparing consumers to pay higher prices will be extremely difficult in the absence of any tangible benefit, says Mountford. “Once you have subsidies in place it is very, very hard to remove them.”

Higher Gas-Tax Idea Joins Fiscal-Cliff Talks

With the US Federal Tax not being raised since 1993 it seems now might be a good time to raise it in light of the fiscal cliff. I wonder if they raise it how much they would increase it to from 18.4 cents per gallon. Any ideas of what it should be raised to?

Best hopes for a higher US Federal gasoline tax.

RE: Looking to Cities, in Search of Global Warming’s Silver Lining

Not much silver lining in the realm of reality:

More than 100 million people will die and global economic growth will be cut by 3.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030 if the world fails to tackle climate change, a report commissioned by 20 governments said on Wednesday.

(Reuters, bold added). When this starts going down a lot of people are going to want to hurt somebody in some places, so it could be that oil company people will be the new targets of the wrath of foreign nations like this:

A U.S.-based Egyptian-American said to be behind the anti-Islam film "Innocence of Muslims" and six other Egyptian Christians were sentenced to death in absentia by a court in Cairo Wednesday.

The film, which insulted the prophet Muhammad, sparked violent protests and attacks on U.S. embassies across the Middle East when it was released in September.

(NBC). If just making a film that is anti-Mohammad is sufficient to bring a death penalty, what will global warming caused deaths of hundreds of millions bring?

Seriously, over 100 million by 2030 is one holocaust per year (5.8 million per year). Take cover.

Why Global Fuel Prices Will Spark the Next Revolutions

While the demonstrators that have mobbed the streets of Amman for two weeks now are demanding the overthrown of King Abdullah — a criminal offense in Jordan — it’s not the demand for democracy that sparked their protests. Instead, thousands of Jordanians have been spurred to act by a more basic issue: the rising price of gas after the government withdrew its subsidies.

Preparing consumers to pay higher prices will be extremely difficult in the absence of any tangible benefit, says Mountford. “Once you have subsidies in place it is very, very hard to remove them.”

Best hopes for peaceful elimination of fuel subsidies.

i haz ben scanning the conundrum beat for a few weeks now but i see no mention of the giant sink hole in Louisiana. the only site that links to local events there is enenews.com. seems it burped up a bunch of oil. pundits say that if the vapor there ignites it wood be as if a fusion bomb went off. i red that the cavern is huge and collapse alone wood be a disaster.

http://enenews.com/officials-confirm-crude-oil-is-flowing-to-sinkhole-su...

lots of other links with events there. seems like we have set up around the globe all sorts of extinction level events. black swans are roosting all over.

but DARPA funds warp drive 100 year star ship research.

peak helium anyone?

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/T121126003658.htm

"A shortage of helium caused by increasing demand in emerging countries including China and India is beginning to affect Japan.

Tokyo Disney Resort has suspended sales of Disney-character balloons, and at least one hospital has suspended use of magnetic resonance imaging."

New York City Sized Iceberg Set to Break Free in Antarctica

Back in February, NASA discovered a 19 mile-long crack in the ice of Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier. The crack, if it continued to grow, looked set to break off an iceberg the size of New York City from the Antarctic’s western side.

NASA has since returned to the Pine Island Glacier for a series of observational fly-over missions named Operation IceBridge and have posted a video of their findings.

New crack discovered in Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier

Trams without Wires

... As PRIMOVE vehicles are not limited to rail or a fixed route, its equipment can easily be fitted to road vehicles. A battery powered bus running, say, 250 kilometres per day requires a six or seven ton battery. Bombardier have calculated that if PRIMOVE is used for charging, only a one ton battery is required and that a single charge point, located at a central part of the bus network could, typically, provide 20 charges a day with no effect on the bus service. Charging buses in this way also extends battery life. Thus for minimal infrastructure investment, it could enable a city to operate a fleet of electric buses with the same performance as diesel buses.

this all ties in with my idea of going to mars or titan to reclaim hydrocarbon there. i told you all that TOP men are working on it.

New Nuclear Engine Could Power Deep-Space Exploration
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/11/radioactive-stirling-engine-ex...
"Researchers have tested a small prototype of a nuclear-reactor engine design that could one day power deep-space exploration probes.

The proposed design is based on a Stirling engine – an engine first invented in the 19th century that uses hot pressurized gas to push a piston. It would use a 50-pound nuclear uranium battery to generate heat that is then carried to eight Stirling engines to produce about 500 watts of power."

be sure to read the comments of that article.

Advocacy group details how trucks can save by using natural gas

A natural gas advocacy group has developed a detailed formula to calculate how much trucking fleets would save by converting from diesel-fueled vehicles to natural gas vehicles.

The calculator, formatted as a spreadsheet, takes into account everything from financing terms to personnel training to state incentives for natural gas vehicles. It also uses fuel prices on an energy equivalent basis, with diesel running at a national average of $4.40 and compressed natural gas at $2.14 per diesel gallon equivalent.

For instance, the tool calculates that a fleet of 10 small delivery trucks that travel 71 miles a day would cost $72,543 each over their lifetime running on diesel. Their natural gas version would cost $50,072

Natural Gas Fleet Savings Calculator

this is a big deal....another black swan, extinction event? fodder for nay sayers?

Workers raise 1st section of new Chernobyl shelter
http://www.sfgate.com/business/energy/article/Workers-raise-1st-section-...

"Workers have raised the first section of a colossal arch-shaped structure that eventually will cover the exploded nuclear reactor at the Chernobyl power station."

Alaska's Columbia Glacier Should Stop Retreating In 2020

Warmer air temperatures triggered an increase in the Columbia Glacier's rate of iceberg calving, whereby large pieces of ice detach from the glacier and float into the ocean, according to lead author William Colgan of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences.
-----------------------snip---------------------------
A single glacier's contribution to sea level rise can "turn on" and "turn off" quite rapidly, over a couple of years, with the precise timing of the life cycle being difficult to forecast. Presently, the majority of sea level rise comes from the global population of glaciers. Many of these glaciers are just starting to retreat, while some will soon cease to retreat.

"The variable nature and speed of the life cycle among glaciers highlights difficulties in trying to accurately predict the amount of sea level rise that will occur in the decades to come," Colgan said.
-------------------------snip------------------------------
The researchers found that around 2020 the terminus of the glacier will retreat into water that is sufficiently shallow to provide a stable position through 2100 by slowing the rate of iceberg production.

The speediness of the glacier's retreat is due to the unique nature of tidewater glaciers, Colgan said. When warming temperatures melt the surface of a land glacier, the land glacier only loses its mass by run-off. But in tidewater glaciers, the changes in ice thickness resulting from surface melt can create striking changes in ice flow, triggering an additional dynamic process for retreat.

The unfortunate thing is that poorly informed people might read the headline and conclude that because the glacier is expected to stop retreating that therefore global warming isn't so bad. In fact, the exact opposite is true. A tidewater glacier that rapidly retreats so far that its terminus is no longer floating is not a healthy glacier.

In responding to the Bill Powers interview on the shale gas bubble the Horn River News (B.C. shale gas hype) acknowledges that the production decline rates of shale gas wells is dismal and then weakly argues "So what".

Is the shale gas “miracle” over-hyped?

The key question here is what is the production life cycle of a shale gas well? It has always been know that this cycle is relatively short and dramatic compared to the longer production life of a traditional gas well. These life cycles differ between basins, whereby one basin may average longer production then another. It is not uncommon to see a production drop-off of 50% in the first 12 months of production in many wells. Numbers vary between basins and between wells.

Perhaps the EIA is wrong in their 92 year estimate, though their access to data seems to be quite extensive. There certainly are some variables including their usage of 2011 natural gas consumption rates their calculation and not predicting any increasing consumption rate over time. Either from economic growth, or increaseed usage of natural gas as part of the overall energy mix. Based on this alone one could resonable estimate that 92 years is not one hundred percent accurate. But with that said, predictions are never one hundred percent accurate and for this reason alone we know Mr. Powers calculations are likely off.

So if we took all the scientific calculations, and included Mr. Powers predictions we would like find a life span for shale gas between sixty and seventy years – about one generations worth of energy. Only time will tell who is right.

BTW, I still don't see why it makes sense to build the Coastal GasLink pipeline west to Kitimat to export North Eastern B.C. shale gas overseas, when guys like Bill Powers are arguing that we are about to see a spike in gas prices in North America. Which will impair the finances of a lot of Canadian and American households that heat with gas.

Furthermore, the starting point of the Coastal GasLink is Dawson Creek B.C. which looks as close to Fort McMurray and Edmonton as it is to Kitimat. Heading west to Kitimat requires climbing over steep terrain whereas the route east is relatively flat.

Syria has been cut off from the Internet.

The internet has been cut off and mobile phones have been disrupted in Syria, monitoring firms have said.

Networking firm Renesys said the country's connection protocols were unreachable, "effectively removing the country from the internet".

The first reports blamed the government, but the government is blaming the rebels (or "terrorists").

New from Congressional Research Service [CRS] ...

Saudi Arabia: Background and U.S. Relations (0.4M pdf)

The ongoing political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa is changing the dynamics of long-running reform debates in the kingdom. The full effect of these events on the kingdom and on U.S.-Saudi relations has yet to be determined.

Succession arrangements have attracted particular attention in recent years, as senior leaders in the royal family, including the king, have faced health crises, and the deaths of two crown princes has raised questions about the transition to the next generation of the Al Saud family.

Current U.S. policy seeks to coordinate with Saudi leaders on regional issues and help them respond to domestic economic and security challenges. It remains to be seen whether U.S. initiatives and, more importantly, Saudi leaders’ efforts will ensure stability.

Recent Developments ..................................... 3
  Succession Issues and Leadership Changes .............. 3
  U.S. Security Cooperation, Assistance, and Trade ...... 5
    Security Cooperation: Arms Sales Move Forward 
    as Training Programs Continue ....................... 5
    U.S. Foreign Assistance to Saudi Arabia ............. 7
    U.S.-Saudi Trade and Oil Imports .................... 8
  Saudi Political and Economic Issues ................... 8
  Domestic and Regional Security Issues ................. 9
    Protests and Eastern Province Unrest ................ 9
    Reform and Women’s Issues .......................... 10
    Saudi Regional Policy .............................. 11
    Iran ............................................... 12
    Syria .............................................. 12
    Bahrain ............................................ 13
    Yemen .............................................. 13
    Israel and the Palestinians ........................ 14

200,000 UK Homes 'May Become Uninsurable' Over Flood Risk

Some 200,000 British homes could become uninsurable from next year due to flood risks unless a deal is struck with the government, insurers said Monday, as yet more rain teemed down on much of the country.

The Association of British Insurers is in talks with ministers about replacing a deal expiring next year which ensures people whose homes are threatened by flooding can get insurance.

After the Floods, We Must Rebuild Homes Differently

The recent UK flooding caused terrible damage and waste, yet many insurers insist that things must be put back as they were

Sustainable Cities Will Be More Resilient In Extreme Weather

Recent extreme flooding and storms have exposed the asset risks for non-resilient cities, and it is worth looking to China to see how investments are being made

Developing Cities Face Perfect Storm of Environmental Risks

A major report, "Future Proofing Cities," published today by Atkins in a unique partnership with the Department for International Development (DFID) and UCL, warns that cities in the developing world must act now against a perfect storm of environmental risks.

The report assesses the risks to cities from climate hazards, resource scarcities and damage to ecosystems – and advises how they can act now to future proof themselves. Covering 129 cities totalling 350 million people in 20 countries, this report identifies practical measures that cities can take to manage these future risks.

You can download the excutive summary of the report, request the full report or find more information at www.futureproofingcities.com.

New from U.S. Government Accountability Office [GAO] ...

Significant Changes Are Expected in Coal-Fueled Generation, but Coal is Likely to Remain a Key Fuel Source

Coal is a key domestic fuel source and an important contributor to the U.S. economy. Most coal produced in the United States is used to generate electricity. In 2011, 1,387 coal-fueled electricity generating units produced about 42 percent of the nation's electricity.

... Two broad trends are affecting power companies' decisions related to coal-fueled generating units--recent environmental regulations and changing market conditions, such as the recent decrease in the price of natural gas.

Regarding retirements, forecasts GAO reviewed based on current policies project that power companies may retire 15 to 24 percent of coal-fueled generating capacity by 2035--an amount consistent with GAO's analysis. Coal-fueled capacity may decline in the future as less capacity is expected to be built than is expected to retire.

According to stakeholders and three long-term forecasts GAO reviewed, coal is generally expected to remain a key fuel source for U.S. electricity generation in the future, but coal's share as a source of electricity may continue to decline.

Available information suggests that the future U.S. use of coal may be determined by several key factors, including the price of natural gas and environmental regulations. EIA assessed several scenarios of future fuel prices and forecasts that coal's share of U.S. electricity generation will fall to 30 percent in 2035 if natural gas prices are low or 40 percent if natural gas prices are high.

EIA forecasts that two hypothetical future policies that reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity sector by 46 percent and 76 percent would result in coal's share of U.S. electricity generation falling to 16 and 4 percent in 2035, respectively.

Full Report

Dropping water levels affect Lake Ontario, Irondequoit Bay

The bay, which flows into Lake Ontario, is a local manifestation of a larger problem. The Great Lakes, the world’s biggest freshwater system, are shrinking because of drought and rising temperatures, a trend that accelerated with this year’s almost snowless winter and scorching summer. Water levels have fallen to near-record lows on Lakes Michigan and Huron, while Erie, Ontario and Superior are below their historical averages. The decline is causing heavy economic losses, with cargo freighters forced to lighten their loads, marinas too shallow for pleasure boats and weeds sprouting on exposed bottomlands, chasing away swimmers and sunbathers.

No mention of global climate change, just a newsworthy story.

International Energy Agency chief economist discusses the future of fossil fuels, curbing greenhouse-gas emissions

Fatih Birol, chief economist of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, is the lead author of an eye-catching new report projecting that the United States will become the world’s leading oil producer within a few decades. He is often called on to brief high-level political figures on energy issues — including briefings last year for President Barack Obama, among other leaders, on the implications of America’s boom in natural gas.

Birol will speak at MIT about the new report on Wednesday, Nov. 28. MIT News spoke with him in advance of this appearance to ask about the world’s energy outlook.

Lecture on Thursday, November 29, 2012 The Profits of Power: Energy Relations Between Russia and Europe

Study: 'Fugitive' methane from shale gas production less than previously thought

Using industry data, researchers conclude that more emissions are controlled by field practices than assumed in other studies.

In talking with industry representatives and officials at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), O'Sullivan and Paltsev found that companies are already capturing about 70 percent of potential "fugitive" emissions.

Whether it's coal, nuclear, oil, or NG; MIT can be counted on to parrot the industry consensus because coal, nuclear, oil and NG fund the studies.

There is no evidence in the study that suggests that they actually measured anything - they just took the industries word. They wouldn't lie, would they?

We got your oil & gas right here ...

Using IRAM's 30m-telescope, Astronomers Find Indications for Vast Petroleum Reservoirs in the Horsehead Nebula

The Horsehead Nebula, 1,300 light-years from Earth, is located in the Orion constellation

... In their current survey, the scientists were able to detect 30 molecules in the region, including many small hydrocarbons, the smallest molecules that compose petroleum and natural gas. The researchers were surprised by the unexpectedly high levels of hydrocarbons. "The nebula contains 200 times more hydrocarbons than the total amount of water on Earth!", said astronomer Viviana Guzman.

Maybe MIB was on to something ...

... gives new meaning to the quote from Men in Black:
Agent J: ... the galaxy is on Orion's belt.
Frank the Pug: That galaxy is the best source of subatomic energy in the universe. If the Bugs get their slimy claws on it, kiss the Arquillians goodbye! ;-)

fun! amazing! insightful!

http://www.psfk.com/2012/11/christo-sculpture-abu-dhabi.html

"Renowned artist Christo plans to create the world's biggest and most expensive sculpture in the Middle Eastern desert built from recycled materials." (made of 55 gallon oil drums)

well, here it is just as i predicted:

http://nasaupdatecenter.us/press.html

"November 29, 2012
Mars Rover Curiosity Working At 'Matijevic Hill'

PASADENA, Calif. -- NASA's Mars rover Curiosity, well into its fourth month on Mars, will work for the next several weeks or months at a site with some of the mission's most intriguing geological findings yet.

The site, called "Matijevic Hill," overlooks 42 mile-wide Endeavour Crater. Curiosity has begun investigating the site's concentration of small spherical objects reminiscent of, but different from, the iron-rich spheres nicknamed "blueberries" at the rover's landing site nearly 22 driving miles ago (35 kilometers).

The small spheres at Matijevic Hill have different composition and internal structure made completely of plastic."

we will go there and get that juice. bet on it. there is no limit to human greed and blah, blah, blah....

TPTB have won:

"Fiscal Cliff" trending

"Fiscal cliff" coverage/debate: genuine public concern, exercise in Bernaysian mind-control, media-generated fear tactics (increase viewership), or preparing the public for a decision that has already been made?

Media coverage of the "fiscal cliff" debate has reached levels beyond ridiculous. In pure "Shock Doctrine" fashion, it would not be a far-reach to suspect the tried & true fear assault in an attempt to keep television viewers peeled to their screens and the advertising dollars rolling in. But the media onslaught has become so relentless (levels of unprecedented absurdity), it is becoming more and more difficult to accept anything other than the public is being prepared for the inevitable decision to let the tax cuts expire. Desensitized brains (limbics) will be less likely to dissolve into panic and chaos once properly oriented. There is the added benefit that, by continually parading congressman in front of cameras to show that both sides are unwilling to compromise, neither party can be scapegoated; or shall I say either party could be EQually scapegoated.

I proposed this to one of my neighbor's yesterday. He agreed that the coverage seemed excessive, but was more willing to blame it on the WH and their attempts to divert attention away from Benghazi/Sandy Rice.

Isn't there a well-known saying about opinions? ;)

Feel free to delete. Not sure how this relates to energy other than that market collapse would definitely reduce energy demand and impact energy investment.