Tom Ashbrook on WBUR (Boston's NPR station) will host a special program this morning at 10am EST on fracking for oil / gas, including a discussion on water-intensive nature of the technology and opportunities for water recycling. You can listen online at www.wbur.org, click on the "Listen Live" button. I hope some TOD commenters will try to call in - it's a live call-in show with various experts brought into the conversation.

The show will repeat this evening at 7pm (Eastern) but there's no opportunity to call in, as it's simply a playback of the morning's program.

Dick Lawrence

Up top

Swallowing Rain Forest, Cities Surge in Amazon

Wish we had pictures of ancient Babylonian forests so people could see for themselves what happens when a species runs amok.

For those interested.

NRK just released videos of Breiviks car bomb in Oslo. This clip also contain an interview with the security officer who saw it on the screen, but you need to know norwegian to get that. The white van that parks under the building is the one with the bomb. Pretty big blow.

http://www.nrk.no/fordypning/her-parkerer-breivik-bombebilen-1.8593408

Re: Brent Poised to Depose WTI as Most-Traded Oil Futures

Somebody's reading my mind. Last night, I finished reading Goodman's The Asylum, in which she presents a semi-historical account of the rise of the NYMEX WTI futures contract. For those who don't know the details, the article above points out:

The U.S. crude contract was inaugurated in 1983 on the Nymex, which is now part of CME. Brent derivatives followed five years later on the International Petroleum Exchange, which was later acquired by ICE.

Goodman's account ends with the CME purchase of the NYMEX, after the NYMEX went public. I found her description of the insider's efforts to build NYMEX and the later events as competition from ICE forced them to move from open pit trading to the present computer based systems to be most interesting. She discusses other historical aspects which still influence our financial markets, such as Phil Gramm's repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act and the passage of the Commodities Futures Modernization Act. I now see the markets in a much different light, especially the fact that much trading in real quantities happens over the counter in obscure transactions which are hidden from the rest of the markets.

This latest story looks to be another twist in the ongoing competition between the global trading systems. If the world is at Peak Oil, it's likely that these trading systems can only make things worse, as the amount of trading for speculation is a vastly larger quantity compared to the volumes of crude actually bought and sold at contract closing. Goodman makes a point which I thing may be crucial, which is, the old system of floor trading allowed the traders to assimilate information in ways which the computer traders can not, because of the direct interaction in the pits. As a result, the computer traders exist with only limited information as may be available from other computer based information sources. She claims that many of the traditional floor traders didn't understand why the price of oil in 2008 spiked upward rapidly to $147, only to later fall back to near $30. Does this mean that the electronic market is unstable, with the potential for wild swings? Only time will tell...

E. Swanson

This is a great, though very short article: Keeping Peak Oil Reality In Mind # 18: Deny & Delay

The article is by Rich Turcotte but he has a quote from an article by Paul Gilding. Here is a small part of it:

I can’t imagine I’d take kindly to everything I assumed about the world being proven wrong and all my success now being blamed for the potential collapse of civilization. Denial and delay would be quite appealing!

But none of that really matters because the end of their world is going to happen regardless of anything they do.

That article can be found here: The End of the Industrial Revolution

And also a Ted Talk by Gilding: The Earth is full

Ron P.

The consociation of population growth and the global economy are fascinating to consider: when you add around 2 billion people to the global labor supply, labor's share of the wealth in proportion to capital decreases perilously. (And productive capacity in Japan and Germany had been built back up, meaning the US now had competitors.) What is the effect of this? An implosion of demand.

This is exactly what has been happening since the stagflation of the '70s and decimation of our more protectionist measures. This happened right when we had a global glut of capital, which exacerbated even further the lack of effective demand. What did we do to soak up surplus investment capital? Well, we had heightened globalization, financialization (what J.H. Kuntsler calls "the financial sector blowing up into a giant monster"), intensified suburbanization, the tech and .com bubbles, the housing asset (more like liability) bubble, expansion of the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) economy, and neoliberal restructuring.

I can't stand this parochialism about the financial collapse that is so present. Looking at the whole economy and economic history is just as important.

Then you have the people who are convinced of an "Asian decoupling" from the Western economy. This is utter absurdity. the neoliberal model based on offshoring capital has reached its limit; China itself has become saturated with industrial capital. The export-oriented industrialization model in Asia is hitting the walls of both Peak Oil and capital saturation. 75% of China's manufacturers were already complaining of excess capacity and demand stagnation, even before the bubble of debt-fueled demand collapsed. Asia's manufacturing sector is Inextricably linked to debt-financed, middle-class spending in the United States, which has collapsed. The Asian export economy, as a result, has fallen through the floor. That's why China's on a frantic and frenetic hunt trolling the whole Earth for any remaining arable land, deposits of gold, copper, etc., and fossil fuels.

Oil boom in center of country resonates on Washington shores

When recent headlines proclaimed that the United States was poised to become the world's largest oil producer by 2017, the import of that news may have seemed distant and abstract. Yes, the oil fields of North Dakota, Montana and Texas are alive with new activity, but for Northwest residents, the effects are not something they see every day.

That fact is quickly changing in businesses from Olympia to the Canadian border. The arrival in Tacoma last week of a 103-car train from North Dakota was a sign of just how swiftly the sudden abundance of oil in this country is shifting business even 1,200 miles away from the booming oil fields.

That BNSF Railway train was the first of what will ultimately become weekly trains bringing oil to Tacoma from the new oil fields opened up by hydraulic-fracturing technology in the country's northern Great Plains.

Apologies if this has already been posted:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/more-than-1000-new-coal-plants-planne...

"More than 1,000 New Coal Plants Planned Worldwide"

"The huge planned expansion comes despite warnings from politicians, scientists, and campaigners that the planet's fast-rising carbon emissions must peak within a few years if runaway climate change is to be avoided and that fossil fuel assets risk becoming worthless if international action on global warming moves forward."

Pemex Discovers Oil in Region That Could Hold 1 Billion Barrels

Petroleos Mexicanos, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, is expanding drilling after discovering a crude deposit in Tabasco state, estimating the area could hold as much as 1 billion barrels of reserves.
The light-crude deposit announced today in the on-shore Navegante I well may have as much as 500 million barrels.

I've seldom seen a vaguer press release. After going over all the different versions of this report, I've concluded the following:

• Pemex has drilled a well somewhere in Tabasco State (area about 25,000 square kilometers), a state which currently has about 860 producing oil and gas wells.
• This well has encountered hydrocarbons.
• Estimates of total proved, probable and possible (P1+P2+P3) reserves associated with this well range from 50 to 500 million barrels oil equivalent.
• The reserves for the region might be one billion barrels of oil equivalent. In 2001 the reserves for the coastal area of Tabasco were estimated to be 1.9 billion barrels of oil plus 3.7 trillion cubic feet of gas.

My conclusion from this (and I have worked in the area and am fairly familiar with the geology and with the fields discovered before about 2004) is that there is a new discovery of either oil or gas. This discovery is at 6,000 meters depth, which is deeper than most of the wells in the basin. As the term barrels oil equivalent is used in one report, it is probably gas rather than oil (which is not bad: Mexico imports about 15% of its natural gas from the U.S.), and the geology of the discovery is poorly understood, so there is a 10:1 uncertainty in the possible size of the discovery.

My best guess is that Pemex has discovered a gas field with about 100 billion cubic feet of gas (the 50 million boe is 270 billion cubic feet) ultimately recoverable.

This is enough to supply the country at its current rate of consumption for less than three weeks, or to replace imports for about ten weeks.

Time to get Peak Oil in their curriculum ...

The Cambridge Project for Existential Risk

Many scientists are concerned that developments in human technology may soon pose new, extinction-level risks to our species as a whole. Such dangers have been suggested from progress in AI, from developments in biotechnology and artificial life, from nanotechnology, and from possible extreme effects of anthropogenic climate change. The seriousness of these risks is difficult to assess, but that in itself seems a cause for concern, given how much is at stake.

Our goal is to steer a small fraction of Cambridge's great intellectual resources, and of the reputation built on its past and present scientific pre-eminence, to the task of ensuring that our own species has a long-term future.

We will be developing a prospectus for a Cambridge-based Centre for the Study of Existential Risk in coming months, and welcome enquiries and offers of support.

... unfortunately Peak Oil is not on their radar [yet], but AI is ...

Artificial intelligence – can we keep it in the box?

... People sometimes complain that corporations are psychopaths, if they are not sufficiently reined in by human control. The pessimistic prospect here is that artificial intelligence might be similar, except much much cleverer and much much faster. Or they might simply be indifferent to us – they might care about us as much as we care about the bugs on the windscreen.

If that sounds far-fetched, the pessimists say, just ask gorillas how it feels to compete for resources with the most intelligent species – the reason they are going extinct is not (on the whole) because humans are actively hostile towards them, but because we control the environment in ways that are detrimental to their continuing survival.

and from the DoD ...

Autonomy in Weapon Systems

... The new DoD Directive Number 3000.09, dated November 21, 2012, establishes guidelines that are intended “to minimize the probability and consequences of failures in autonomous and semi-autonomous weapon systems that could lead to unintended engagements.”

The Department of Defense should “more aggressively use autonomy in military missions,” urged the Defense Science Board last summer in a report on “The Role of Autonomy in DoD Systems.”

Gas tanker Ob River attempts first winter Arctic crossing

A large tanker carrying liquified natural gas (LNG) is set to become the first ship of its type to sail across the Arctic.

The carrier, Ob River, left Norway in November and has sailed north of Russia on its way to Japan.

The specially equipped tanker is due to arrive in early December and will shave 20 days off the regular journey.

The owners say that changing climate conditions and a volatile gas market make the Arctic transit profitable....[snip]

...The Norwegian LNG plant at Hammerfest was developed with exports to the US in mind. But the rapid uptake of shale in America has curbed the demand for imported gas.

Meanwhile in Japan, in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, there has been a growing interest in alternative power sources, especially gas.

"The major point about gas is that it now goes east and not west," says Gunnar Sander, senior adviser at the Norwegian Polar Institute and an expert on how climate change impacts economic activity in the Arctic.

"The shale gas revolution has turned the market upside down; that plus the rapid melting of the polar ice."

He stresses that the changes in climate are less important than the growing demand for oil and gas.

Emphasis mine, as I'm having difficulty with any context for this idea. So it goes...

Here Today, Gone Tomorrow:
Rise and Fall of Technology Hypes a Matter of Association

The study analysed the "rise and fall" of technology hypes based on fuel cell technology as an alternative vehicle propulsion concept.

... "In the area of mobility, in particular, great white hopes replace each other in rapid succession. In the late 1990s, hydrogen-based fuel cell technology was seen as enormously promising", explains Dr. Matthias Weber from the AIT. "However, as early as 2003, electromobility started to offer a new perspective – and hope. Later again, biofuels were seen as the next big thing for a time. Meanwhile, however, this enthusiasm has been replaced by considerable scepticism."

Dr. Weber and his team analysed how the initial hope in the fuel cells soon escalated into hype. Five different areas of discourse were defined as a basis for the study: mass media, politics, expert circles, finance and the stock exchange. ...

... The study also revealed that the linking of expectations in different areas can contribute to the emergence of hypes. "The greater the hopes associated with the technological development, however, the deeper the disappointment may be if the expectations are not fulfilled quickly", adds Budde

Primer on arctic drilling ...

Working under extreme conditions

The northward shift of Norway’s oil industry means it must adjust to temperatures down to -30°C, storms, sleet and snow, and drift ice. And to the blackest night.

“Try to imagine changing a tyre in freezing weather, snow and darkness,” says professor Tore Markeset, a specialist in cold climate technology at the University of Stavanger (UiS).

... “Weather conditions in these waters differ from the North Sea in terms of low temperatures, icing, fog, heavy snowfalls and sudden changes.”

The North Sea weather is easier to forecast, he notes. “When a low pressure area over Iceland moves east, we know it’ll bring bad weather and can plan operations accordingly.”

“In the Barents Sea, however, deep troughs of low pressure develop at the interface between ice and open water. These can’t be predicted, and may create sudden storms and hurricanes.”

UN envoy: Japan should do more for nuclear victims

A United Nations rights investigator said Monday that Japan hasn't done enough to protect the health of residents and workers affected by the Fukushima nuclear accident.

UN expert urges Japan to heed people’s voices in the aftermath of the nuclear disaster

Mr. Grover warned about troubling concerns that affected residents “have had no say in decisions that affect them” at the end of his first mission to Japan - from 15 to 26 November – to assess the links between the right to health of the affected people and the actions taken in the aftermath of the worst man-made nuclear accident in the country.

from the Report ...

... It is regrettable to note that the local residents were not aware of disaster management plans in the event of a potential nuclear accident. In fact, local residents of Futaba city in Fukushima were led to believe by the Safety Agreement signed in 1991 that the TEPCO plant was safe and there would be no occasion for a nuclear accident.

... In the immediate aftermath of nuclear accidents, it is the established procedure to distribute stable iodine to the population in an attempt to block the uptake of radioactive iodine in those exposed to it, thereby reducing the risk of thyroid cancer. I regret to note that the Government neither gave instructions nor distributed stable iodine to the affected population.

... it is regrettable that radiation dosage information through SPEEDI and the movement of the radioactive plume was not immediately communicated to the public. Moreover, evacuation zones were imposed on the basis of geographical distance from the site of the disaster and the footprint of the radioactive plume, rather than the actual radiation dosage. Initial evacuation zones therefore neglected hot spots.

... It is unfortunate that inconsistency between the current limits imposed by policy on the one hand [20mSv], and the limits prescribed by the industrial safety regulation in Japan, radiation limits used in Chernobyl [5 mSv] and the findings in the epidemiological studies, on the other hand, has created confusion among a significant number of the local population, who increasingly doubt Government data and policy. This is further compounded by the fact that radiation monitoring stations do not reflect the varied dosage levels in areas in close proximity. As a result, local residents are carrying out their own monitoring of radiation dosage in their neighbourhoods. During the visit, I was shown ample data indicating the variance.

I am concerned about reports received from residents whose children underwent thyroid examination and whose results detected the presence of cyst and/or nodules below the threshold size under the protocol. Accordingly, those parents were neither allowed to obtain a second examination, nor given medical papers on demand, in effect denying them the right to access their own medical documentation.

Unfortunately, they are required to undergo a cumbersome freedom of information act procedure to obtain these documents.

... During my visit, a number of people shared with me their apprehension that TEPCO is not being held accountable for its responsibility for the nuclear accident. The Government’s majority shareholding in TEPCO has meant that taxpayers may foot the bill, ultimately. The right to health framework provides for accountability of those actors who are liable for committing actionable wrongs. The Government should therefore ensure that TEPCO is also held accountable and that taxpayers are not foisted with the eventual liability.

World's rivers running on empty, paper finds

Four of the world's great rivers, including the Murray Darling, are all suffering from drastically reduced flows as a direct result of water extraction, according to new ANU research.

The Australian National University – examined the threats from water extractions and climate change on four of the world's iconic river systems; the US Colorado River, the South African Orange River, the Chinese Yellow River and the Murray.

The researchers found that in all four basins, over a long period of time, outflows have greatly reduced as a direct result of increased water extractions, and that urgent changes in governance of water are needed to ensure the systems remain healthy and viable.

“Texas highway pileup: time to slow the super truckers down? Texas and Utah are the only states that allow truckers to travel at 80 miles an hour”. Not true for the vast majority of the roads. Not far off but not true. Except for that new 40 mile strip with the 85 mph limit the max limit for all vehicles typically is 75 mph with intervals in developed areas reduced to 60 - 65 mph. And in many areas truckers are reduced by 10 mph under posted limits and can be restricted to the right lane only.

More to the point about the big accident. On the way to a well in La. I drove thru that spot about 2 hours before the accident. Bad fog for sure. In 37 years I’ve driven many times thru foggy nights along the coast. And that morning was no different: the truckers were being safe for the most part (I’ll typically let one be my point man as I follow at a safe distance) and the 4-wheelers were the typical buttheads I’ve dealt with for decades. At one point a half dozen of them jammed up on top of each other and I had to back off from them. Despite the misleading (intentionally so IMHO) headline the truckers were typiclly doing 40 to 50 mph and the 4-wheelers doing 60+ mph.

The odd thing was the accident happened after the sun had come up a good bit. But that may also be why so many vehicles were involved. When possible I try to avoid driving east on I-10 during sunrise: blinding light right in your eyes. I suspect the combination of fog with that bright sun light (it was a cloudless morning) in the eyes may have been the deadly combination.

Scientists analyze millions of news articles

Researchers in the UK have used artificial intelligence algorithms to analyze 2.5 million articles from 498 different English-language online news outlets over ten months.

The researchers found that:

• As expected, readability measures show that online tabloid newspapers are more readable than broadsheets and use more sentimental language. Among 15 US and UK newspapers, the Sun is the easiest to read, comparable to the BBC's children's news programme, Newsround, while the Guardian is the most difficult to read. 'Sport' and 'Arts' were the most readable topics while 'Politics' and 'Environment' were the least readable.

The fact that articles about politics are the least readable might also explain widespread public disengagement."

Readability Graph by Subject

https://patterns.enm.bris.ac.uk/files/DigitalJournalism.pdf

RE: Stand Still For the Apocalypse

...according to a report commissioned by the World Bank ... by the end of the century ... an apocalypse.

So the doomers have some supporters ... the World Bank ... who'd a thunk it?

Scientists test novel power system for space travel (w/ video)

A team of researchers, including engineers from Los Alamos National Laboratory, has demonstrated a new concept for a reliable nuclear reactor that could be used on space flights.

The research team recently demonstrated the first use of a heat pipe to cool a small nuclear reactor and power a Stirling engine at the Nevada National Security Site's Device Assembly Facility near Las Vegas. The Demonstration Using Flattop Fissions (DUFF) experiment produced 24 watts of electricity.

Heat pipe technology was invented at Los Alamos in 1963. A heat pipe is a sealed tube with an internal fluid that can efficiently transfer heat produced by a reactor with no moving parts. A Stirling engine is a relatively simple closed-loop engine that converts heat energy into electrical power using a pressurized gas to move a piston. Using the two devices in tandem allowed for creation of a simple, reliable electric power supply that can be adapted for space applications.

What could possibly go wrong ...

Bioengineered marine algae expands environments where biofuels can be produced

Biologists at UC San Diego have demonstrated for the first time that marine algae can be just as capable as fresh water algae in producing biofuels.

Higher Gas-Tax Idea Joins Fiscal-Cliff Talks

States and business advocates are maneuvering to use the current budget negotiations in Washington to win support for a long-sought increase in the federal gasoline tax—one of a grab bag of proposals various groups are seeking to tuck into a deal.

State highway officials and industries that stand to benefit from increased highway spending — including road builders and heavy-equipment makers — are among those pressing lawmakers to raise the 18.4-cent-a-gallon federal gasoline tax as part of an agreement.

U.S. Drought Seen Hindering Energy Independence on Ethanol Stall

The worst U.S. drought in five decades is cutting profits from producing corn-based ethanol for blending in gasoline, hindering the country’s efforts to reach energy independence, according to Poten & Partners Inc.

Stalling domestic ethanol output led to increased imports, reversing the nation’s role as a net exporter of the biofuel, the New York-based shipbroker said in an e-mailed report Nov. 23. That’s boosting demand for tankers as Brazil supplies cargoes to the U.S. East Coast, according to the report.

Lake Lanier at lowest level since historic drought

Lake Lanier is now at its lowest level since March 2009 after dropping two feet in two weeks, authorities said.
The lake is now at 1,058 feet above sea level, or 13 feet below full pool, officials said. The last time Lake Lanier hit such a low mark was during the 2007-09 drought, when the lake was at 1,050.79 feet, The Times of Gainesville reported

The basin includes portions of Georgia, Florida and Alabama

Both nuclear and ff power plants will be affected.

Brent Poised to Oust WTI as Most-Traded Oil Futures

I often wonder why TOD publishes charts of two WTI-based indices but no Brent-based indices. Given the international readership, and the interest in the WTI-Brent spread, I would have thought one of each would be more informative to readers.

Natural gas drillers target U.S. truck, bus market

... Waste Management, the largest U.S. trash hauler, has committed to replacing 80 percent of its fleet with trucks powered by natural gas. Rich Mogan, the company's district manager in southwestern Pennsylvania, said about half of his fleet of 100 trucks now run on the cheaper fuel. They are quieter and less expensive to maintain, he said, and "we are looking at a 50 percent reduction in our (fuel) cost."

Partly because of a lack of fueling infrastructure, natural gas isn't expected to grab significant market share from petroleum anytime soon. Only a tenth of 1 percent of the natural gas consumed in the United States last year was used as vehicle fuel, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Of more than 250 million vehicles on the road today, perhaps 125,000 are powered by natural gas.

"It's simply a matter of time before the U.S. meaningfully shifts from transportation systems built around consuming high-priced oil to consuming low-priced domestic natural gas," Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon wrote to investors this year.

Port Authority gets US$20 million loan

Minister with responsibility for Information, Senator Sandrea Falconer, said the loan had become necessary as the Authority has been adversely affected by the slow pace of recovery in advanced economies, such as the US and the financial challenges in the Eurozone.

Senator Falconer added that this impacted the expected rebounded in the shipment of containers through Jamaica.

And then there's this:

Caribbean ports rushing to meet challenges of Panama Canal expansion

Ports in the Caribbean are reportedly rushing to meet potential challenges posed by the expansion of the Panama Canal.

The Bahamas said it is among ports in Jamaica and Cuba, which are either expanding, or have plans to expand.

Some Caribbean port managers say they hope to receive post-Panamax ships and become a transshipment hub that will supply smaller ports with feeder vessels.

Others say they are simply bracing for increased feeder traffic, according to reports. Panamax is the term for the size limit of ships going through the Panama Canal.....(snip)


Anthony Hylton, Jamaicas minister of industry, investment and commerce, recently returned from a two-week trip to China and Singapore where he promoted the islands plan to become a global transshipment and logistics hub.

Hylton said the $8 billion to $10 billion project includes dredging Kingston Harbour, expanding port facilities and building a dry dock. It also hinges on linking ports and airports through road and rail networks, he said.

We have some assets in place. This is not starting from scratch, said Hylton, who has been trying to woo international investors and expects dredging to begin shortly. We will be ready for the post-Panamax, he added.

Cognitive dissonance does not appear to describe what is going on here as there is no apparent "feeling of discomfort" from having to deal with these two situations. Best hopes that the "two-week trip to China and Singapore" "to woo international investors" comes up blank. Something needs to happen to stop this insane investment in the last century's oil based transportation infrastructure!

Alan from the islands

You can throw out those low-ball scenarios that suggest that we can reach 450 ppm CO2 without pain ...

Energy System May Be Heading For Higher Emission Scenarios

Schweizer and Kriegler examined six socioeconomic drivers of emissions – population, economy, energy, technology, economic policy and environmental policy. Using the cross-impact balance method, they recorded semi-quantitative judgements on the consistency of interactions of these drivers, based on today's knowledge, in a matrix. For example, a scenario describing high levels of wealth, low educational attainment and low fertility rates would seem questionable.

"In our analysis, we did find some [2] low emission scenarios with strong internal consistency, but there were many more [21] with higher emissions," said Schweizer. "This suggests that in the absence of policy intervention, there may be more ways to retain a high-emission energy system than to achieve a low-emission energy system."

"... we found a subset of scenarios that repeatedly retained their internal consistency, and they happened to describe futures of high energy-related emissions, where global economic growth is high or very high and the energy system is predominantly powered by coal," said Schweizer.

As Schweizer relates in a video abstract in ERL, the team believes this may actually lead to an understatement of the global mitigation challenge.

Fracking Pipeline Threatens Sandy’s Worst-Hit Victims

Just weeks after Hurricane Sandy walloped New York City in one of the most devastating episodes of destruction the city has ever seen, new safety concerns for those who were hardest-hit have come to light–namely, a pipeline for fracked gas that is proposed to go right underneath the battered areas, many of which are still without power.

The Williams’ Transco Rockaway Lateral Project will consist of a 3.17-mile, 26-inch pipeline, mostly offshore, planning to deliver natural gas to the Rockaways as early as 2014.

We Colonials have always done our best to keep the Mother Country afloat, and this is no exception. The Governor of the Bank of Canada is stepping down to become the Governor of the Bank of England. We hope that he will be able to keep the wolf from the British door (not that Britain has any wolves left), but he is fully experienced in the wolf-repelling role and will no doubt do an exemplary job. Pip pip and all that.

Mark Carney named Bank of England Governor

Ottawa - The Bank of Canada announced that Her Majesty the Queen has approved the appointment of Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England effective 1 July 2013.  He will serve a five-year term.
Governor Carney will continue to serve in his current position until 1 June to ensure a smooth transition to the next Governor of the Bank of Canada.  The Governor will remain Chair of the Financial Stability Board.

Governor Carney said:

“I am honoured to accept this important and demanding role, and to succeed Sir Mervyn King with whom I have worked closely over these past five years and from whom I learned so much.

This is a critical time for the British, European and global economies; a decisive period for reform of the global financial system including its leading financial centre, the City of London; and a crucial point in the Bank of England’s history as it accepts vital new responsibilities.”

“It has been a privilege to serve as the eighth Governor of the Bank of Canada.  I am proud of the Bank’s contribution to the resilience of the Canadian economy throughout an unprecedented period of global turmoil.  The Bank is helping to lead the reform of the global financial system.  It is introducing the most sophisticated currency in the world.  And as the Government of Canada’s fiscal agent, it is providing funds management and banking services with the highest reliability and resiliency.”

Proposed gas pipeline may sidestep environmental review

Larry Pynn, Vancouver Sun November 26, 2012

TransCanada's planned 650-kilometre natural gas pipeline to Kitimat would cross about 320 watercourses including the habitat of more than 100 species at risk, such as white sturgeon, woodland caribou and marbled murrelet, company documents show.

But under Conservative government changes to environmental laws, there's no guarantee the Coastal GasLink project will undergo a federal environmental assessment.

"It's a travesty of the public trust," said Otto Langer, retired head of habitat assessment and planning for the federal fisheries department in B.C. and Yukon. "If we can't have an environmental review on a project of this sort, this is proof we have gutted Canada's environmental protection."

--- snip ---

Langer said that, despite reduced federal environmental protection, the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency has the nerve to boast of "Canada's strong environmental laws, rigorous enforcement and fol-lowup, and increased fines" on its website.

Concluded Langer: "It makes me want to puke."

Musings: Canada, O Canada: What Direction for 2013 O&G Capex?

G. Allen Brooks, Rigzone

The conclusion we draw from this exercise is that we are more comfortable with the prospect of flat to lower Canadian petroleum industry capital spending in 2013. We don't know whether Canadian producers will announce large capital spending reductions when they outline their plans for next year, but we believe they will be very reluctant to step up spending beyond the winter drilling season. Spring break-up will provide producers an opportunity to reassess their outlook for oil and gas prices and economic demand. A sharply improved outlook some 5-6 months in the future could make the CAPP and PSAC forecasts come true, but at the moment we will take the "under" bet on those forecasts.

Sea level rise, alone, doesn't really strike me as a big deal. Cities would do well to all be submerged-- I mean, if human activity is going to dissolve coral.

In reading in the previous Drumbeat some words about one Elon Musk, my mind wandered over how the logic of a money system that is decoupled from terrestrial land and labor would want to get into space. Maybe desperately, such as what with the rich niches imploding. Earth can only have so many McMansions, house-flips/bubbles, land-grabs/enclosures, various excesses, affluent effluent, and highway Lambourghinis, etc., before their peaks set in too.

As for fresh-faced Elon, born a relatively recent 1971, I will wager he is doomed with the rest of us-- money and techno triumphalism/grandiosity notwithstanding-- to remain firmly planted on terra firma. Sorry, Elon.

The invisible hand of the market reality gripping your $500 shoe laces as you try to fly away. [insert editorial cartoon here]

In a very recent "podcast" interview with Dmitry Orlov, Dmitry seems to think the so-called rich may take this collapse/decline thing the hardest.

What do all men with power want? More power. ~ The Matrix

Forests worldwide near tipping-point from drought

http://news.mongabay.com/2012/1123-forest-drought.html

The process, well in hand, of turning our beautiful planet into a desert continues apace. Like any addict who hits rock bottom, one day we will have to start the rebuilding process. Our rainforests occupy about 3% of earths landmass if I'm right and contain half of our biodiversity, so they will be a good starting point, the sheer magic of these places being another reason. I don't know if it will be quite possible to replicate tropical forest but Willie Smits is doing interesting work. The sugar palm is central to his strategy as people must be provided for (presumably as they cant be trusted to burn the whole thing to the ground a second time).

http://www.ted.com/talks/willie_smits_restores_a_rainforest.html

His heart is in the right place, he is trying to save the orangutan too. Nature clearly means a great deal to him, he loves it. But for the present generation, interaction with nature is minimal, hence the present state of affairs. How can you love what you do not know? This initiative to get children away from their screens was nice to see:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/nov/23/project-wild-thin...

IMHO, two things will have to change: first, the belief that its possible to live apart from nature in a resource heavy centralised system, and secondly, that the earth is a lump of dead rock that can be mined all the way to the core to provide these resources if possible. I hope one day we can treat her like the living being she is. The great being that feeds us, clothes us and gives shelter to our bones. To talk like this in the present day puts a person firmly in the lunatic fringe but nonetheless, its a change of heart we need, not a change in government policy or a technological fix. But I worry that Willie Smits will have his forests burned down a second time before a real change in the human being comes about, but come about it will. It just won't be pleasant.

Wild Bison Return To Montana

http://rtseablog.blogspot.ie/2012/11/bison-return-to-wild-finding-mankin...

Link up top: ConocoPhillips exiting stake in Caspian Sea with a $5 billion sale highlights a symptom all participating oil companies are having with the giant Kashagan field in Kazakhstan. Cost overruns are skyrocketing and expectations are falling like a rock.

Kazakh delay clouds non-Opec growth (Requires registration but available via Google without registration if you put the title in the search box.)

But the field, the biggest oil discovery in nearly four decades, will finally start pumping in early 2013, reaching about 150,000 barrels a day by the middle of next year, and rising towards 350,000 b/d soon after.

...Even if production starts next year, output will be far below the target of 1.5m b/d set for maximum pumping.

The four so-called “Briks” of Brazil, Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan, have all turned out to be big disappointments for those who had hoped to see a massive increase in non-OPEC production. It just ain't happening. But not to worry, the good old U S of A comes to the rescue:

The output forecast for the four countries has fallen, in particular due to problems in Brazil with Petrobras’s ambitious plans to raise offshore oil production and in Kazakhstan with the trio of fields of Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak. The Brik setbacks had been masked, however, by the spectacular growth in US oil production due to the shale revolution.

US shale oil production is about to flood the world with cheap crude oil. Well, perhaps I am a bit overly optimistic. ;-)

Ron P.

High demand means world needs all of Canada’s oil: IEA

Global demand for crude is growing so strongly that the world needs “every single drop of Canadian oil,” the International Energy Agency’s chief economist said on Monday, playing down fears that growing U.S. production could hit Canadian exports.

Fatih Birol said that even if U.S. output rises as much as the agency expects, the country would still need to import four million barrels a day and that Canada is an obvious supplier.

In its annual forecast this month, the IEA said the United States could come close to energy self-sufficiency by 2035, largely because of the boom in development of unconventional light oil resources..

There is something of a disconnect between the idea (widely reported in the media) that the US will become self-sufficient in energy, and the idea that it will have to import 4 million b/d of oil from Canada. I guess this is what they mean by "North American energy self-sufficiency".

Michael T. Klare: World Energy Report 2012: The Good, the Bad, and the Really, Truly Ugly

Given the hullabaloo about rising energy production in the U.S., you would think that the IEA report was loaded with good news about the world’s future oil supply. No such luck. In fact, on a close reading anyone who has the slightest familiarity with world oil dynamics should shudder, as its overall emphasis is on decline and uncertainty.

Take U.S. oil production surpassing Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s. Sounds great, doesn’t it? Here’s the catch: previous editions of the IEA report and the International Energy Outlook, its equivalent from the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), rested their claims about a growing future global oil supply on the assumption that those two countries would far surpass U.S. output. Yet the U.S. will pull ahead of them in the 2020s only because, the IEA now asserts, their output is going to fall, not rise as previously assumed.

... You don’t know what bad times are until you don’t have enough energy to run the machinery of civilization.

Of all the findings in the 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook, the one that merits the greatest international attention is the one that received the least. Even if governments take vigorous steps to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the report concluded, the continuing increase in fossil fuel consumption will result in “a long-term average global temperature increase of 3.6 degrees C.”

... An increase of 3.6 degrees C essentially suggests the end of human civilization as we know it.

Canada ‘Hemorrhaging Scientists’ As Government Pushes Climate Science Aside

... Canada's ruling Conservative Party government has been leading a slow and systematic unraveling of environmental and climate research budgets, according to local scientists—including shuttering one of the world's top Arctic research stations for monitoring global warming. Hundreds of researchers have lost their jobs, and those that remain are forbidden from talking to media without a government minder.

The alleged "war on science" is so bad that some scientists are leaving Canada for jobs in countries where they feel they have more opportunities and freedom. Protests by scientists and their supporters have erupted across the country in recent months.

Walmart's Hunger Games

Like Suzanne Collins' dystopic future portrayed in The Hunger Games, in which impoverished teenagers battle each other to the death once a year for the amusement of Panem's wealth elite, Black Friday "Battle Royales" often end in death as well. In just the last few years, we've seen shoppers and retail workers shot to death, trampled to death, pepper-sprayed, bitten, punched, and kicked, all in their pursuit for Black Friday shopping deals.

All while the wealthy elite look down on the spectacle before them with amusement and the knowledge that the entire spectacle is fattening their bank accounts.

... With only "limited quantities available" (the eternal asterisk for so many advertised deals), and thousands of people waiting in line outside, then the message given to the young warriors in the Hunger Games applies to the shoppers readying themselves for the mad dash to the Kitchenware section: "May the odds be ever in your favor."

Study finds high fructose corn syrup-global prevalence of diabetes link

A new study by University of Southern California (USC) and University of Oxford researchers indicates that large amounts of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) found in national food supplies across the world may be one explanation for the rising global epidemic of type 2 diabetes and resulting higher health care costs.

The study reports that countries that use HFCS in their food supply had a 20 percent higher prevalence of diabetes than countries that did not use HFCS. The analysis also revealed that HFCS's association with the "significantly increased prevalence of diabetes" occurred independent of total sugar intake and obesity levels.

Researchers genetically alter wheat to make it nearly free of gluten

ConAgra buying Ralcorp for about $5 billion

ConAgra Foods is buying the private-label food maker Ralcorp for about $5 billion, which will make it North America's biggest manufacturer of cereals, crackers and other packaged foods sold under store brands.

Private label brands now account for 28 percent of all food and drink consumed in the U.S., up from 20 percent about a decade ago, according to market researcher The NPD Group.

As private labels become a bigger business, major supermarkets have also invested in producing private label brands in their own factories. Ralcorp's customers include Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Kroger Co. and McDonald's Corp.

Oil-and-gas lobby: Repeal of biofuel rule a top priority in next Congress

A top oil-and-gas lobby is changing strategy and will press Congress to repeal a biofuel production mandate instead of pushing for piecemeal changes to the rule.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said Tuesday it believes the Renewable Fuel Standard should not be preserved, saying it is too hobbled by nagging problems.

But API — which historically has donated to and received support from Republican lawmakers — might encounter some resistance in the House Energy and Commerce Committee

The biofuels industry says the mandate has helped create jobs in rural America. It charges that API’s goal in tearing down the biofuel rule is to preserve the gasoline market for petroleum producers.

Researchers study 'middle ground' of sea-level change

Ongoing research by professor John Brubaker of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science is throwing light on another, less-familiar component of sea-level variability—the "intra-seasonal" changes that occupy the middle ground between rapid, storm-related surges in sea level and the long-term increase in sea level due to global climate change.

Brubaker's interest in intra-seasonal variability was piqued during summer 2009—when a prolonged period of high water affected the U.S. East Coast

Three NOAA scientists, Bill Sweet, Chris Zervas, and Stephen Gill, subsequently issued a technical report to describe and explain the 2009 event. They note that water levels of 0.6 to 2.0 feet above predicted tides persisted for up to 6 weeks in areas from North Carolina to New Jersey, with slightly lower elevations experienced as far south as Florida and as far north as Maine.

... Now imagine Sandy with a 2.0 ft [or 3.0 ft] boost as the Gulf Stream slows.

also Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America

and New fresh water in Arctic could shift Gulf Stream

and Scientists uncover diversion of Gulf Stream path in late 2011

Paralysis by analysis should not delay decisions on climate change

Robert Nicholls, Professor of Coastal Engineering at the University of Southampton and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, says: "Some impacts of climate change are now inevitable, so it is widely agreed that we must adapt. But selecting and funding adaptation remains a challenge."

Professor Nicholls and his co-authors describe two ways of assessing how much adaptation to climate change is enough by balancing the risk of climate change against the cost of adaptation. First they describe cost-benefit analysis where the cost of the adaptation has to be less than the benefit of risk reduction. Alternatively, decision makers can seek the most cost-effective way of maintaining a tolerable level of risk. This approach is easier for policymakers to understand, but thresholds of tolerable risk from climate change are not well defined.

Proportionate Adaptation

GM hopes new Spark will jolt electric sales

... The Spark EV is powered by an electric motor and a 20 kWh lithium ion battery. It gets 130 horsepower and can go from zero to 60 mph (96 kph) in less than 8 seconds, which is several seconds faster than the gas-powered Spark. GM says the Spark EV is the first all-electric vehicle in North America to offer SAE Combo DC Fast Charge capability, which can charge the battery to 80 percent of capacity in about 20 minutes. It can also be fully recharged in seven hours using a standard 240-volt outlet, or longer using a 120-volt outlet.

Fish to shrink by up to a quarter due to climate change, study reveals

His team examined the effect of rising ocean temperatures on the growth and distribution of more than 600 species of fish around the world and found that they are expected to shrink in size by 14-24% by 2050, with the biggest effects in tropical regions.

The fish shrinkage predicted by the new research results from two effects: the difficulty of growing in warmer, oxygen-poor waters, and migration.

"The metabolic rate of fish in the warm oceans increases and therefore they need more oxygen," said Cheung, whose work is published in Nature Climate Change. But warm water holds less oxygen and so their growth is limited.

Lastly, Roberts said the heating of the oceans means that the warmer layer at the surface mixes less with the colder layer below. As the colder layer contains most of the nutrients, that means less food for fish. "We are already seeing some evidence of this, as oceanic 'deserts' are getting larger."

Growing food in the desert: is this the solution to the world's food crisis?

They appear to have pulled off the ultimate something-from-nothing agricultural feat – using the sun to desalinate seawater for irrigation and to heat and cool greenhouses as required, and thence cheaply grow high-quality, pesticide-free vegetables year-round in commercial quantities.

Soon after becoming immersed in agriculture as a business, he says, he realised that it essentially involved "turning diesel into food and adding water". Whether you were a tree-hugger or a number cruncher, Saumweber reasoned, this was not good. "So I began to get interested in the idea of saline agriculture. Fresh water is so scarce, yet we're almost drowning in seawater. I spent a lot of time in libraries researching it, Charlie Paton's name kept coming up, and that's what started things.

"What we liked about Charlie's idea, as did the engineers we got in to assess Seawater Greenhouse, is that it addressed the water issue doubly by proposing a greenhouse which made water in an elegant way and linked this to a system to use seawater to cool the greenhouse," Saumweber recounts.

i mentioned the 100 kph sail boat and that is doable. but what of a warp drive star ship? lot's of folks think it is doable, even DARPA. if that can be juiced up we wont need oil any more for fuel.
it's worth running by the oil conundrum for perspective. pie in the sky or a break through?

http://io9.com/5963263/how-nasa-will-build-its-very-first-warp-drive

"A few months ago, physicist Harold White stunned the aeronautics world when he announced that he and his team at NASA had begun work on the development of a faster-than-light warp drive. His proposed design, an ingenious re-imagining of an Alcubierre Drive, may eventually result in an engine that can transport a spacecraft to the nearest star in a matter of weeks — and all without violating Einstein's law of relativity."

make sure to read comment section of this story.