The new OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out this morning with crude only production numbers for OPEC and all OPEC nations.

According to "secondary sources" OPEC produced 31.078 million barrels per day in September. That is down 265 thousand barrels per day from last month. But the August production was revised down by 67 kb/d so that was actually a decline of 332 kb/d from the August unrevised numbers.

The big losers were Angola, down179.6 kb/d and Nigeria, down 136.6 kb/d. Venezuela was down 33.8 kb/d and Algeria was down 14.4 kb/d. The big gainers were Saudi Arabia, up 46.8 kb/d and Libya, up 21 kb/d.

Of course all those numbers were according to "secondary sources". It is very interesting that those sources say Saudi produced 9.807 mb/d in August and 9.854 mb/d in September. However the MOMR list what OPEC nations themselves say they produced.

Saudi said, via "Direct communication", that they only produced 7.753 mb/d in August and 9.724 mb/d in September. In other words Saudi says their production declined by 29 kb/d in September while "secondary sources" says their production increased by 47 kb/d.

This conflict in numbers is reported in The Gulf Oil Review.

Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Production, Supply in September, GOR Says

They report both sets of numbers but do not tell us which numbers are more likely to be correct.

They are both imperfect numbers. The "secondary sources" numbers are best guess estimates and subject to revision. The self reported numbers are political. They are what the reporting country wants everyone to think they are producing. These numbers from Iran are inflated by about one million barrels per day and those from Venezuela are inflated by almost half a million barrels per day from the "secondary source" numbers.

Ron P.

Hussein al-Shahristani, the country's Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs, said Wednesday that Iraq is targeting to produce between 9 million and 10 million barrels a day by 2020, compared with IEA's prediction of 6.1 million barrels a day.

Does Iraq really believe it can increase oil production by almost 1 million barrels/day every year over the next seven years?? Or are these guys living in a life of make believe just like us westerners.

Freezing temperatures prevent Alaska village from replenishing water tanks before winter, above: This one caught my attention since Kivalina is the village which is in the process of suing numerous entities for damages resulting from global warming:

Kivalina v. ExxonMobil Corporation, et al.

Kivalina v. ExxonMobil Corporation, et al. is a lawsuit filed on February 26, 2008 in a United States district court. The suit based on the common law theory of nuisance claims monetary damages from the energy industry for the destruction of Kivalina, Alaska by flooding caused by climate change. The damage estimates made by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Government Accountability Office are placed between $95 million to $400 million. The suit was dismissed by the United States district court on September 30, 2009 on the grounds that regulating greenhouse emissions was a political rather than a legal issue and one that needed to be resolved by Congress and the Administration rather than by courts.[1] An appeal was filed with the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in November 2009.[2][3][4][5][6] In November 2011 lawyers for the plaintiffs and the defendants made arguments before an appeals panel in San Francisco. The panel of appeals judges will decide whether to reinstate the case or not. [7

[bold added]

"political rather than legal issue"... jeez. The village is trying to get the funds it needs to relocate to higher ground. Since the village likely persists (as is) in part due to dividends from the state’s oil-wealth trust fund, it seems these folks have been forced to bite the hands that feed them. As the dividends are decreasing in recent years, one wonders how many of these remote settlements will survive.

The lawsuit accuses some of the defendants of a conspiracy to mislead the public regarding the causes and consequences of climate change.

Perhaps they should be suing Fox News, et al. as well :-/ I've thought about that myself.

Besides the eroding coastline and water problems, the inhabitants have also had to deal with a strange "orange goo":

On August 4, 2011, it was reported that residents of the city of Kivalina had seen a strange orange goo wash up on the shores. According to the Associated Press, "Tests have been conducted on the substance on the surface of the water in Kivalina. City Administrator Janet Mitchell told the Associated Press that the substance has also shown up in some residents' rain buckets."[9] On August 8, 2011, Associated Press reported that the substance consisted of millions of microscopic eggs.[10]. Later, officials of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed that the orange colored materials were some kind of crustacean eggs or embryos,[11][12][13], but subsequent examination resulted in a declaration that the substance consisted of spores from a possibly undescribed species of rust fungus[14], later revealed to be Chrysomyxa ledicola[15].

Above: "Dutch architect dreams of future floating cities"

What about the supportive 'floating farms'?

Re: Cash-strapped farmers feed candy to cows

When I was a kid in the happy 80ies, my uncle was an arendator at a farm outside my little home town. He bought basicly anything with an expiered best before date or other things that could not be sold on the market. Bread, cookies, candy... everything. And fed it to his cows. We boys used to bike to his place and enter the barn. Heaven for kids. Candy piled up along the walls. Cookies still edible. Tons of it. We ate us full with it. Or had candy wars. Great memories.

Link up top: OPEC says ample oil supply to persist in 2013

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, trimmed its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2013 by 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 780,000 bpd and said the risk remained skewed to the downside.

That prediction was made in OPEC's MOMR, link in my first post above. In that same report they say non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by .9 mb/d. So they are saying that world oil demand is expected to increase by .78 mb/d next year while non-OPEC supply will increase by .9 mb/d.

That means OPEC is expecting OPEC supply to decrease by by about .12 mb/d in 2013. That may be splitting hairs a bit but at any rate they are expecting any and all increase in crude oil production to come from non-OPEC suppliers. I would place bets that OPEC has peaked.

OPEC Crude Only in kb/d. The last data point is September 2012.

Ron P.

New reports from Chatham House ...

Oil Prices: Energy Investment, Political Stability in the Exporting Countries and OPEC's Dilemma

•The oil market currently suffers serious contradictions. In terms of supply and demand, it is possibly oversupplied. This is not least because higher prices to final consumers are beginning to bite. [We have too much $120 oil and not enough $80 oil] At the same time prices since June 2012 have increased by around 30 per cent, driven by geopolitical concerns.

•The future price trajectory depends upon politicians. Failure to manage the eurozone crisis could lead to much lower oil prices while an Israeli attack on Iran would cause a major price spike.

•A key outcome of the Arab uprisings has been a significant increase in the prices needed by the producers to manage their fiscal position. This is a serious indictment of producers' failure to diversify their economies away from dependence on oil revenues over the last 20 years.

•If the oil price goes much lower, three scenarios could ensue sequentially: a price war forcing prices even lower, a period of internal repression as revenues fail to buy compliance among populations, and internal unrest among producers, which could lead to supply disruption followed by prices bouncing back.

•Underlying all this is a fundamental dilemma for OPEC. Its members need higher prices, but these will cause demand to fall and other supplies, including unconventional resources, to increase. This will force prices lower. Thus OPEC members need the golden eggs at a rate that may well kill the goose that lays them.

Download paper here

What Next for the Oil and Gas Industry?

This report focuses on several critical challenges facing the industry:

•The effect on the demand for oil of the substitution of oil-avoiding technologies (such as in energy efficient vehicles) and the use of alternative fuels;
•The resulting split between growth and no-growth downstream markets and its consequences;
•The changing role of OPEC;
•The uncertainties facing gas producers in markets defined by government policies towards alternative fuels for power;
•The perception that limits to the expansion of oil production have weakened;
•The continuing role of national oil companies;
•The financial challenge from investors in the private-sector companies;
•The geopolitical connotations of the shift in oil trade to Asian developing countries

Each chapter sets out the current position, analyses changes in technology, policy and competition, and concludes with the implications for the oil and gas industry.

Download paper here

Download Executive Summary

Canada's Ozone Science Group Falls Victim to Government Cuts

Thousands of people have avoided getting skin cancer thanks to Canadian scientists who invented the UV index and the gold-standard tool for measuring the thickness of the Earth's ozone layer. But now Canada's ozone science group no longer exists, victim of government budget cuts.

"Everyone who was still left in the ozone group has been re-assigned," said Prof Thomas Duck of the department of Physics and Atmospheric Science at Canada's Dalhousie University.

In 2011 Canada unexpectedly experienced its first ever ozone hole over the Arctic. "The ozone problem is not solved," Duck told the Guardian.

Climate Change to Lengthen Growing Season

Scientists expect the global mean temperature to rise in the future. One consequence is that by the end of this century, Norwegian farmers could be growing their crops for up to two months longer. In areas of higher elevation, in fact, the difference could turn out to be three months. The growing season is defined as the number of days with an average temperature of at least 5°C.

... "A warmer climate means the growing season extends longer into the autumn," points out Dr Bauer-Hanssen. "But near the end of the season, the weak daylight here in the north would be a limiting factor. Plants stop growing without enough light, even if the climate is warm."

No easy answer to fixing California's record gas prices

... Skyrocketing gas prices over the past week have been blamed on two key issues: outages at California refineries and the fact that the state requires a unique type of clean-burning summer gasoline that can't be easily replaced or imported from other places during shortages. As a result, California is a "fuel island," vulnerable to disruptions and price spikes. Even temporary solutions pose problems.

Experts say the state can't just dump the special "California only" gas -- unless there are major changes to federal pollution laws that would allow California to dramatically increase its already high smog levels. And because of the health problems that would cause -- increased emphysema, asthma and even deaths -- the chance of that isn't high.

... Building new refineries isn't likely. Oil companies aren't proposing to build them, in part because state pollution laws are strict, but mostly because the demand isn't there. California gasoline usage peaked in 2006 and has fallen 8 percent since then due to the recession and people buying more fuel-efficient vehicles.

US researchers map carbon emissions at street level

US scientists have developed new software that can accurately measure greenhouse gas emissions down to individual buildings and streets.

The system combines information from public databases with traffic simulations and energy consumption models.

Researchers believe it could help identify the most effective places to cut emissions.

They say it could aid international efforts to verify reductions in carbon.

"We have to have confidence in the numerical value of something. We have to have the same level of confidence about a unit of emissions” -Dr Kevin Gurney Arizona State University

While the United States has one method of measuring carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at national level, there is little consistency at city and local level.

Details of the new system are published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology.

According to the scientists from Arizona State University this new measuring system, called Hestia, changes all that.

Here is a CNBC article: As Waistlines Grow, So Do Refrigerator Sizes

Refrigerators today average 22.5 cubic feet, up from 19.6 cubic feet in 1980, according to the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers.

The Energy Department reports 22 percent of U.S. households have a second refrigerator, up from 12 percent in 1984.

Fortunately, the efficiency of refrigerators has improved so the increase in size and number does not have as big of an impact.

Ireland 'close to oil billions'

Ireland is on the verge of securing revenue from oil that could run into billions of pounds.

Providence Resources Plc, an Irish and UK company, has confirmed its Barryroe site, 30 miles off the Cork coast, should yield 280m barrels of oil.

The money generated will depend on the market value at the time of extraction and on licensing arrangements.

Providence chief executive Tony O'Reilly Jr said this was the beginning of an Irish oil industry.

He described it as a huge success story, following decades of exploration around the Irish coast.

Sinkhole update ... (looks like it's time for old Jed to move to Beverly) ... nobody's goin' home anytime soon.

6:30 a.m. DNR News Release

BATON ROUGE – Louisiana Commissioner of Conservation James Welsh said today that detailed, comparative analysis has revealed that the liquid hydrocarbon from the failed Texas Brine cavern and samples from the nearby sinkhole/slurry area strongly indicate that both are naturally occurring crude oil and not diesel – likely from the same underground source.

... “While our ongoing review of operational records on the Napoleonville Salt Dome has not shown one single underground source known to contain enough diesel fuel to cover the sinkhole/slurry area, an underground oil-and-gas formation could easily account for the amounts found on the sinkhole/slurry area surface and in the cavern.”

Additionally, he noted that ongoing “fingerprint” analysis of natural gas samples from Bayou Corne-area bubbling sites has now ruled out the nearby Crosstex butane storage caverns and Acadian natural gas storage caverns as potential sources of the natural gas bubbling.

also Wells hit natural gas

BAYOU CORNE — A shallow well recently drilled into the aquifer underneath the Bayou Corne area has hit natural gas, Shaw Environmental officials said Tuesday

Hecox said later that, in contrast to early reports, the hydrocarbons in the sinkhole and the cavern are crude oil, not diesel, and may have come from natural oil bearing formations along the side of the salt dome.

also http://assumptionla.com/bayoucorne/gohsep

and http://www.edsuite.com/proposals/proposals_280/assumption_update_october...

...

Come and listen to a story 'bout a man named Jed
Poor mountaineer barely kept his family fed
Then one day he was shooting for some food,
And up through the ground come a bubbling crude
(Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea)

Well the first thing you know old Jed's a millionaire
Kin folk said Jed move away from there
Said California is the place you oughta be
So they loaded up the truck and they moved to Beverly
(Hills that is, swimming pools, movie stars)

7/10/2012
Peak oil lite: Sydney Airport passenger traffic 15% below 2009 forecast (part 1)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-lite-sydney-airport-passenger-traffic-...

US home heating oil cost to rise 19 pct this winter-EIA

The roughly 6 percent of U.S. homes that rely on the fuel will pay an average of $407 more this winter, according to the government agency's Winter Fuels Outlook. About 80 percent of all U.S. homes that use heating oil are in the Northeast.

The EIA said 17 percent of the cost increase would be due to higher consumption, while 2 percent would be based on elevated prices.

Natural gas consumers, which account for about half of U.S. homes, should expect to pay 15 percent, or $89, more than last winter, due primarily to forecasts of higher consumption.

Documenting Votes From ‘The Most Anti-Clean Energy, Do-Nothing, Pro-Pollution Congress In History’

A new report released this week breaks down 223 of the 315 votes the House of Representatives has made against clean energy and in favor of the fossil fuel industry over the last two years.

The report, released by the Democratic staff of the House Natural Resources Committee, details 127 votes to block or cut regulations in the coal, oil, and gas industries. Specifically, these votes include:

- 42 votes to stop clean energy alternatives and energy efficiency measures. See Appendix A.
- 54 votes for subsidies and other gifts to the oil and gas industry, including votes to preserve tax and royalty breaks, expand risky new drilling and pipelines, and allow companies to sell off America’s oil and gas resources to higher-paying foreign countries. See Appendix B.
- 127 votes to block or cut health, safety and environmental protections for the oil, gas and coal industries. See Appendix C.

A more detailed explanation of the votes can be found in the full report. The staffers noted that House Republicans wasted 108 hours of floor time voting on these bills, many of which they knew had no chance of passing the Senate or being signed into law by President Obama.

Included in House Republicans’ intransigence on environmental issues is Vice-Presidential Nominee Rep. Paul Ryan, who voted 100% of the time with House Republicans.

Report: House Republicans’ Votes in the 112th Congress show Oil-Above-All Agenda

Edwards: ... People are smart. They can handle it.
Kay: A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it.

Now, along with dumb & panicky, you can add greedy and irresponsible ...

Looking out for #1 can make you happy, if you have no choice

... these three studies show that people are happier when a self-benefiting option is imposed upon them because it frees them from having to take responsibility for the outcome.

Military Microgrids as Backup Power

Energy researchers are considering the potential of military bases for providing supplemental power to vital civil services when crises occur.

“Microgrids on military bases linked to local emergency services could make those services more secure,” said Cmdr. Mike Hallett, U.S. Navy Reserve, during a panel discussion, Oct. 2, at GridWeek. The group looked at threats to power grids from natural disasters and man-made disruptions as the use of smart grid technology is expanded.

British Shoppers Warned of Fruit and Veg Shortages

This summer's poor UK harvest has left some supermarkets struggling to keep shelves stocked with fresh produce and taking the unusual step of apologising for the fact that some fruit and vegetables are of lower quality than usual.

Following today's warning from the National Farmers' Union (NFU) on low wheat yields, supermarkets have not ruled out the prospect of price rises in the future. But they pledged to help Britain's hard-pressed families by offering "competitive pricing" of staple and essential food items in their value and economy ranges.

A spokeswoman for Waitrose said: "There's no doubt that this has been an exceptionally tough growing season for our farmers who have been coping with very bad weather and rising costs for critical inputs such as fuel. We are working closely with all our growers to help them manage their costs and get as much of their crop on our shelves as possible through initiatives such as selling cosmetically imperfect but good quality fruit and veg - something we have always done."

The Growing Appeal of National Gardening Leave

Fancy a day off each week to grow your own food? We would all reap numerous lifestyle, health and environmental benefits

Less time in the office, and more time in the garden: add these two good ideas together and we can make an even better one. If all new employees in otherwise full-time jobs were given the voluntary option of a shorter, four-day working week, Britain could reap a wide range of economic, social and environmental benefits. This option is standard employment practice in the Netherlands. It could be done flexibly, either by working shorter hours, or by compressing a conventional working week into four days.

Controversial 'zombie roads' scheme to be resuscitated

Over 40 controversial road schemes abandoned by successive governments or defeated at public inquiry on environmental grounds have been revived as part of Britain's largest road-building programme in 25 years.

Dubbed "zombie roads" because they were declared dead years ago but have now been resuscitated, they include a £100m bypass around Hereford, a new six-lane road through the Peak district, a dual carriageway through the Norfolk broads and a £1bn "super highway" to run much of the way from London to Ipswich. Other revived plans include a new Thames river crossing and the widening of the A303 past Stonehenge.

California voters only have themselves to blame for soaring pump prices

If Californians want to know who's to blame for sky-high gas prices, they need to look in the mirror.

...Any investigation into the cause of the temporary price surge wouldn’t take long, say oil industry analysts... And the reasons are almost entirely the result of policies and regulations enacted at the behest of California's voters.

Unlike past nationwide gas price spikes, Golden State drivers can't blame their pain at the pump on crude oil prices -- which account for about two-thirds of the cost of a gallon of gasoline. After peaking in May at $105 a barrel, the domestic benchmark price has fallen to $92 as of last week.

Oil prices have fallen because there’s plenty of crude to go around, thanks to a slowing global economy and new drilling technologies that have dramatically increased U.S. production...The glut of domestic supply has helped drive down the price of oil

But that discount doesn't get passed along to California drivers because supplies are so tight in the Golden State.

One reason is that state regulators insist refiners produce a specific blend of gas to meet tough state air quality standards... “Refiners and the California regulatory community have gotten along about as well as Nicki Minaj and Mariah Carey are getting along at the moment,” he said.

...Prices should also start falling fall following an order from Gov. Brown on Sunday that state smog regulators allow winter-blend gasoline to be sold earlier than the usual Nov. 1 start date. The order means refiners can begin to tap stockpiles of winter fuel to ease the latest shortages.

Got that all you enviro-Nazis?? If it weren't for those horrible, Draconian anti-smog regulations, we'd all be happy motoring along with $1/gallon gas. But nooooo...

Good grief, this guy doesn't even bother to get the basics right (state taxes represent a tiny % of the price of gas vs. crude oil). Not to mention the silly Nicki Minaj-vs.-Mariah Carey comment, as though wanting clean air to breath were akin to some public spat between two spoiled celebrities. I grew up in L.A. in the 1970s and can still remember the Stage-3 smog alerts and how much it hurt to breathe. It was like being a 4-pack-a-day smoker without the cigarettes.

So North Dakota oil production for august was 701,134 barrels per day.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/10/north-dakota-august-daily-oil.html

An increase of 25,000 barrels per day over the prior month.

So Rune Likvern had indicated the north dakota oil would plateau at 600,000-700,000 barrels per day. So was that based on some kind of annual daily volume ? Where when it goes past 700,000 barrels per day it has to hold for a full year ?

Or how many many months where they keep adding 15,000-30,000 barrels per day do we say that it did not plateau ?

I am expecting a good Sept. Since the EIA shows about an extra 250,000 barrels per day more in Sept vs August for daily crude oil production.

Big Oil and Gas Pumps Money to Christy Clark

BC's premier criticized Alberta publicly while fundraising oil money there in private.

By Bill Tieleman,TheTyee.ca

"I don’t think people from Alberta really understand how much we cherish our coast, how much we cherish our environment here." -- B.C. Premier Christy Clark quoted in the Edmonton Journal.

While Premier Christy Clark was loudly proclaiming her intent to protect B.C. from the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline proposal, she was also in Calgary privately raising money from big oil sands companies for her party.

Talk about oily hypocrisy!

Coal Miner’s Donor
A Mitt Romney benefactor and his surprisingly generous employees.

The accounts of two sources who have worked in managerial positions at the firm, and a review of letters and memos to Murray employees, suggest that coercion may also explain Murray staffers’ financial support for Romney. Murray, it turns out, has for years pressured salaried employees to give to the Murray Energy political action committee (PAC) and to Republican candidates chosen by the company. Internal documents show that company officials track who is and is not giving. The sources say that those who do not give are at risk of being demoted or missing out on bonuses, claims Murray denies.

Fish killed in salmon-bearing creek after pool water dumped into storm drain

A fish kill in Vancouver's last wild salmon-bearing stream is being blamed on ignorance.
5 Oct 2012, Canadian Press

Musqueam fisheries manager Richard Sparrow says the workers noted a strong smell of chlorine coming from Musqueam Creek and found more than 1,000 dead spine stickleback, coho salmon and rainbow trout.

The workers followed a hose back to a home in a nearby upscale development where Sparrow says the residents were pumping out their swimming pool, sending the chlorinated water gushing into the storm sewer.

He says it's difficult that negligence has set back years of restoration work on the creek and wants to emphasize the damage caused when household chemicals are dumped into storm sewers.

Idiots! Nothing grew in their pool because it was chlorinated, yet they don't think twice about discharging it into a wild stream?

These Guys Can Make Your iPhone Last Forever

Behind the scenes at iFixit, where DIY repair is more than just a business.

Fixing stuff, Wiens and Soules argue, is the ultimate act of rebellion against our consumerist culture. iFixit's repair manifesto, available as a poster, holds several truths to be self-evident—some practical ("Repair saves you money"), some principled ("Repair saves the planet"), and some profound ("If you can't fix it, you don't own it").

'Canada Is Being Outplayed' at Oil Wealth Game

But we can win says economist Robyn Allan. Last in a series on Norway's petro-policies and lessons here.

"At the recent Northern Gateway Hearings in Edmonton, the Joint Review Panel was told by Enbridge's expert witnesses that right now Eastern Canada is buying imported crude at $20 to $30 more than the price of western Canadian crude. If that's the case, that works out to about 15 cents a litre at the pump. Western producers could get a price premium of five cents a litre over what they are getting now, the refiners in eastern Canada could save five cents a litre on their crude supply and consumers could save five cents a litre when they fill up at the pump.

"So if that happened, producers and refiners would make more money and consumers would spend less money. That's got to have a stimulative effect on our Canadian economy."

Allan points out that shipping upgraded crude rather than bitumen would also require half as much pipeline capacity since we would not need to build supply lines for imported condensate. And most importantly, upgraded Alberta crude should be moving east rather than unrefined bitumen moving west.

Pipeline Whistleblower: Cracks in The System

Insider ties poor weld inspections to rising rate of ruptures. Part two of a Tyee investigation.

By Andrew Nikiforuk

Vokes had an important inside job: he was the guy that ensured the pipelines were constructed safely.

His specific duties included metallurgy and welding. He also specialized in an important accountability process known as non-destructive examination. And he didn't like what he was seeing.

At the invitation of Russ Girling, TransCanada's CEO, Vokes provided documents to senior executives of the company (it is Keystone XL's controversial sponsor) that allegedly documented systemic failure to follow code and regulations in 2011.

Shortly afterwards, the engineer lodged a complaint with regulators in Canada and the U.S. Last May TransCanada fired the engineer without cause.

Drawing on examples from the records of Enbridge and Kinder Morgan (the CBC is investigating TransCanada's record) Vokes is going public with his concerns about an industry facing unprecedented growth and what even the National Energy Board (NEB) describes as "an increased trend in the number and the severity" of pipeline incidents.

All our sisters and daughters should watch this speech...

Australian PM Rips into Opposition in Parliament for Sexism

Video: Gillard labels Abbott a misogynist

After watching that speech, you can get a sense of how Gillard was able to get a "price on carbon emissions" passed in Australia. Barn-burner is the word for it.

Oh, lordy. I was just browsing the Just Ordered section at my local library website, and there sat this, right out there for all the world to see how- ahem- misinformed the local populace is:

The great oil conspiracy: how the U.S. government hid the Nazi discovery of abiotic oil from the American people, by Jerome R Corsi

(blurb)Contends that World War II German chemists developed technologies for creating systainable synthetic oil and that U.S. oil companies in possession of the information have withheld related information to drive up fossil fuel oil prices.

Just... oh, brother!... I can't even begin to find words... I am speechless.

Request for Information (RFI) - Grand Challenges of the 21st Century

I. Introduction

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) are seeking to identify Grand Challenges – ambitious yet achievable goals that capture the public’s imagination and that harness innovation and breakthroughs in science and technology. Specifically, DARPA and OSTP seek suggestions for clear, identifiable goals for the scientific and technical communities. These Grand Challenges can help solve an important societal problem by serving as a “North Star” to provide focus and cohesion among disparate but potentially complementary research and development efforts.

Grand Challenges are defined such that achievement is concrete and measurable. Projects such as putting a human on the moon or sequencing the human genome are good examples of Grand Challenges with concrete, measurable outcomes. The consequences of these achievements will often affect many different disciplines, and the full ramifications may not be known for decades to come. Grand Challenges are not restricted to projects to be undertaken under Government sponsorship, but will likely be tackled by groups both within and outside the United States, using both public and private resources. Because of the cross-disciplinary nature of the most vexing problems facing the world today, Grand Challenges that are simply posed, inspirational, and easy to visualize for a variety of audiences are desired.

More information on Grand Challenges may be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/grandchallenges-speech-04122012.pdf.

Also, more at What are grand technology and scientific challenges for the 21st century?

DARPA and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy want public input on The Next Big Things

New Tool Makes Saving Electricity Easier
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/10/new-tool-ma...

Is this really useful to people? I'm not sure what I can gain from knowing my current usage rate. And if I was really curious, I could just look at the meter. It seems to me that without finer granularity such as which branch circuits are using power or specific items, it is just pretty vague information that doesn't help much.

Nightmare Nuclear Waste

Is anyone familiar with this film, and/or the issues surrounding it? I am also concerned about the earlier (late 1960's and maybe later) sea dumpings of barrels of nuclear waste: The barrels have since corroded and/or are continuing to corrode and there seems to be a real threat of the waste (plutonium and/or ?) going up the food chain, despite the depth of the dump.

From above:
Chavez Election Victory Signals Accelerated Socialist Revolution
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-08/chavez-declared-winner-over-cap...

"...have driven away investors, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the Eurasia Group and Bank of America Corp."

How much better off would the American public be if they could have driven off the criminal organizations Goldman Sachs, Citi Group, and B of A?

For Some Drivers, an Electric Motorcycle Could Be the Best of Both Worlds

Zipping around on a motorcycle can be fun, but being in a downpour or an accident on one is not. Driving a car is safer and more comfortable, but traffic and parking can be annoying.

What if you got rid of the bad parts of both?

You might end up with something like the C-1, an electric motorcycle that looks as if it came out of the movie “Tron.” For protection, the bike is encased in a metal shell, and it is controlled like a car, with a steering wheel and foot pedals. Two big gyroscopes under the floor are designed to keep it from tipping over, even when a car hits it from the side. The C-1’s top speed is 120 miles an hour, and it can travel 200 miles on a full charge.

UK's winter gas at risk from shaky Norway exports

http://www.xe.com/news/2012/10/11/2985521.htm?c=1&t=

The large Ormen Lange field while only a few years into its life, does look like a challenging maintenance project:

http://www.statoil.com/en/ouroperations/explorationprod/partneroperatedf...

The inability or unwillingness of Centrica to neg a long term LNG contract with the Qatari's may come back to haunt the UK some day.

The US natural gas (NG) price, currently at about $3.50 per MMBTU, has almost doubled from the low price this spring, as the huge surplus of NG in storage has declined, relative to average levels.

I don't think that the US NG production supply base has ever had such a high underlying decline rate (given the reliance on shale gas plays), and a key question, as Art Berman has long pointed out, is that once the shale gas players have slowed their drilling, which they have now done, will the industry be able to catch up with the high decline rates, once drilling activity picks up again?

Some controversy stirring over oil price benchmarks:

Total attacks agency's pricing of oil

Antarctic ice at record high levels
(just weeks after the Arctic Ocean hit a new low)

Two weeks after a new record was set in the Arctic Ocean for the least amount of sea ice coverage in the satellite record, the ice surrounding Antarctica has reached its highest ever level.

Sea ice extended over 19.44 million square kilometers (7.51 million square miles) in 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

The previous record of 19.39 million kilometers (7.49 million square miles) was set in 2006.

Todays XKCD is a good parallell to much of the renewable energy model.

http://xkcd.com/1119/

Always a good site to follow.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending October 5, 2012

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.7 million barrels per day during the week ending October 5, 97 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 86.7 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.3 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.2 million barrels per day last week, up by 115 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.4 million barrels per day, 517 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 502 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 114 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 366.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels last week and are near the lower limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week and are below the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.4 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period have averaged 18.5 million barrels per day, down by 2.4 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied has averaged about 8.7 million barrels per day, down by 3.3 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied has averaged 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 3.5 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is 0.9 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

Possibility of Northeast winter heating oil shortage looms; East & West Coast Gasoline Supplies Still at or near historical low points

While record high retail gasoline prices have gotten all the attention lately, the possibility of a winter heating oil shortage in the Northeast US is increasing. While overall and regional supplies of distillates, like heating oil and diesel, are not yet near their low points, seasonally adjusted they are relatively low already. From about late August through November, distillate supplies typically fall, especially in the Northeast US where heating oil is used to warm many residential residences in the winter months. At the present rate of decline, supplies may be pushed low enough to result in historically high retail fuel prices - if not an actual commercial shortage.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/10/us-heatingoil-spike-idUSBRE899...

The US does have a Northeast heating oil reserve, of 1 million barrels of ultra low sulfur heating oil, and it is possible that it will be 'tapped' when real shortages are imminent. The inventories of heating oil in the reserve are not counted in the EIA's weekly inventory report we discuss here.

http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/heatingoil/

One possible reason for the lower national supplies of distillates is increased exports of diesel and similar products, mostly to Latin American countries. Exports of all oil products year to date are about 571,000 bpd higher than last year. While the EIA does not publish weekly figures on distillate exports, altogether the US will export about 200,000,000 barrels more of oil products more in 2012 than in 2011. This is a huge amount in total, which is likely a significant cause of lower distillate and gasoline supplies.

Meanwhile recent wholesale gasoline price 'superspikes' last week were reflective of historically low inventories of gasoline - although in the last few days the price superspike has receded. It's seems quite likely that high retail prices are discouraging demand, as the amount of gasoline distributed by refiners and distributors has declined further over recent weeks, and may be about 3% less than last year. In late summer, it appeared that demand may have finally caught up to last's years levels, but the price spike had an immediate effect of reducing demand. Alternatively, the Amtrak rail system for example, is reporting high use of its railways by individuals.

Usually in times of low East coast supplies, gasoline imports from Europe increase. But in recent weeks, they have not increased much as might be expected with Europe has its own refinery problems, and also, other countries around the world have increased their demand for oil products from Europe.

Daily Chart: Thirsty work
How long does it take to afford a beer?

Analysts at UBS, a Swiss bank, have calculated that it takes a German earning the national median wage just under seven minutes of work to purchase half a litre of beer at a retail outlet. At the bottom of the pint glass, low wages and high taxes mean that boozers in India must toil for nearly an hour before they have earned enough to quench their thirst.

Mando's chainless e-bike is headed for Europe in 2013 (w/ Video)

... The bike has a hybrid drive system. By pedaling, mechanical energy transforms into electricity. The bike uses a lithium-ion battery. A key feature about the bike is that it does away with the bike chain; it converts a rider's pedaling to electricity; the rider is the human "generator." Cyclists can power the bike up to 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) with the motor alone or they can use the pedal for more range. By adding battery energy, the standard range of 30 kilometers can be increased, say enthusiasts, to become a "light e-scooter.

Sweet Oil Flows to U.S. Will Dry Up by 2014-Total

U.S. imports of light, sweet crude oil - mostly West African - will fall to virtually zero by 2014 as rising domestic shale oil production and refinery closures sap demand, according to an executive of Total's trading arm.

New U.S. shale provinces are now pumping more than a million barrels per day (bpd)and the hydrocarbons produced are similar to top quality grades produced in Africa, such as Nigerian benchmark grade Bonny Light.

"We see light sweet imports maintaining their steady pace of decline of 400,000 barrels per day per year so by 2014 they will be very, very low levels," said Thomas Waymel, senior vice-president of crude supply and trading at a conference organised by Oil Price Reporting Agency Argus in Geneva.

Traders said that around 800,000 barrels per day is currently sent from West Africa to the United States, although this is far below peak levels. One trader said that exports flows to the United States were more than double the current level in 2010.

... the fact that Nigeria will be past peak by 2017 probably has nothing to do with this. And Export Land Model will bite with a vengance if the internal civil war doesn't do it in first.

New from GAO ...

Unconventional Oil and Gas Development: Key Environmental and Public Health Requirements

Technological improvements have allowed the extraction of oil and natural gas from onshore unconventional reservoirs such as shale, tight sandstone, and coalbed methane formations. Specifically, advances in horizontal drilling techniques combined with hydraulic fracturing (pumping water, sand, and chemicals into wells to fracture underground rock formations and allow oil or gas to flow) have increased domestic development of oil and natural gas from these unconventional reservoirs.

The increase in such development has raised concerns about potential environmental and public health effects and whether existing federal and state environmental and public health requirements are adequate.

... Federal and state agencies reported several challenges in regulating oil and gas development from unconventional reservoirs. EPA officials reported that conducting inspection and enforcement activities and having limited legal authorities are challenges. For example, conducting inspection and enforcement activities is challenging due to limited information, such as data on groundwater quality prior to drilling.

EPA officials also said that the exclusion of exploration and production waste from hazardous waste regulations under RCRA significantly limits EPA’s role in regulating these wastes.

In addition, BLM and state officials reported that hiring and retaining staff and educating the public are challenges. For example, officials from several states and BLM said that retaining employees is difficult because qualified staff are frequently offered more money for private sector positions within the oil and gas industry.

Report (2.6M pdf)

Oil and Gas: Information on Shale Resources, Development, and Environmental and Public Health Risks

As exploration and development of shale oil and gas have increased--including in areas of the country without a history of oil and natural gas development--questions have been raised about the estimates of the size of these resources, as well as the processes used to extract them.

Oil and gas development, whether conventional or shale oil and gas, pose inherent environmental and public health risks, but the extent of these risks associated with shale oil and gas development is unknown, in part, because the studies GAO reviewed do not generally take into account the potential long-term, cumulative effects. For example, according to a number of studies and publications GAO reviewed, shale oil and gas development poses risks to air quality, generally as the result of:

(1) engine exhaust from increased truck traffic,
(2) emissions from diesel-powered pumps used to power equipment,
(3) gas that is flared (burned) or vented (released directly into the atmosphere) for operational reasons, and
(4) unintentional emissions of pollutants from faulty equipment or impoundments--temporary storage areas.

Similarly, a number of studies and publications GAO reviewed indicate that shale oil and gas development poses risks to water quality from contamination of surface water and groundwater as a result of erosion from ground disturbances, spills and releases of chemicals and other fluids, or underground migration of gases and chemicals.

Report (1.8M pdf)

Shell's troubled Arctic Challenger barge gets go-ahead to work in Arctic

The U.S. Coast Guard has given final certification to a key containment barge needed by Royal Dutch Shell to drill for oil in the U.S. Arctic Ocean, a top Coast Guard official said Thursday.

------------------------snip----------------------

The recent approvals mean that Shell has cleared some of the last requirements needed to fully drill in the Arctic. But Shell must still receive permission from federal regulators to drill beyond 1,400 feet.

Glaciers cracking in the presence of carbon dioxide

Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute for Technology have shown that the material strength and fracture toughness of ice are decreased significantly under increasing concentrations of CO2 molecules, making ice caps and glaciers more vulnerable to cracking and splitting into pieces, as was seen recently when a huge crack in the Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica spawned a glacier the size of Berlin.

"If ice caps and glaciers were to continue to crack and break into pieces, their surface area that is exposed to air would be significantly increased, which could lead to accelerated melting and much reduced coverage area on the Earth. ...

... one of those 'black swan' thingees :-<

also Subglacial melt channels and fracture in the floating part of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica

... We conclude that ice-shelf basal melting plays a role in determining patterns of surface and basal crevassing. Increased delivery of warm ocean water into the sub-ice shelf cavity may therefore cause not only thinning but also structural weakening of the ice shelf, perhaps, as a prelude to eventual collapse.

and UT Study: Critical Ice Shelf “Tearing apart at the seams”.

Senators Contradict Oil Industry’s Challenge of SEC Rules

... “The U.S. economy and our values substantially benefit when our companies are working in oil, gas, and mineral rich states,” Senator Richard Lugar, an Indiana Republican who wrote the provision with Senator Ben Cardin, a Maryland Democrat, said today in a statement. “The benefits will not be realized if investments serve to entrench authoritarianism, corruption and instability. With oil prices high and volatile, our economy needs more transparent markets, not less.”

The American Petroleum Institute, whose members include Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX), and other business groups sued in federal court yesterday, saying the regulation based on the law “grossly misinterpreted” the lawmakers’ directive by requiring each company to report publicly payments made to a foreign government.

Chimps Attack People After Habitat Loss

Habitat loss may be to blame for an apparent spate of violent attacks by chimpanzees on humans in the war-torn eastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

... Even if the chimp attacks subside, they may well erupt again in future because of the ongoing pressure from humans. Vernon Reynolds, a biological anthropologist at the University of Oxford, and author of The Chimpanzees of Budongo Forest, says he is aware of a few past incidents around Kasowka Forest in Uganda in which chimps have attacked humans after losing much of their food supply to farming.

Run-Off From Greenland May Weaken Carbon Sink

... The polar oceans are among the world's most important carbon sinks, taking in carbon dioxide from the air and trapping it in their depths – and that could change as a result of the freshwater flux. Curry says Greenland's fresh water will remain at the surface, since the weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will be slow to carry it to the bottom. That also means that once this fresh water has absorbed as much carbon dioxide as it can hold, it will not be replaced at the surface by carbon-dioxide-free water that could absorb more of the gas.

"If you slow the AMOC, you're decreasing the ability of the ocean to take up carbon dioxide," Curry says. Weakening the carbon sink like this could speed up global warming even further.

May explain why the majority of TODers are men ...

Negative News Stories Affect Women's Stress Levels but Not Men's

Bad news articles in the media increase women's sensitivity to stressful situations, but do not have a similar effect on men, according to a study undertaken by University of Montreal researchers at the Centre for Studies on Human Stress of Louis-H. Lafontaine Hospital. The findings were published October 10 in PLOS One.

The women who participated in the study also had a clearer recollection of the information they had learned. "It's difficult to avoid the news, considering the multitude of news sources out there, said lead author Marie-France Marin. "And what if all that news was bad for us? It certainly looks like that could be the case."

The Rideshare Explosion: Ending the Taxi Cab Monopoly

... The Lyft app makes finding a ride easier than hailing a taxi cab on the street. After determining your location from your smartphone, with one tap it is possible to hail a background-checked driver who's already in close proximity to you. At the end of the ride, you are asked to give the person a "suggested donation" based on how far you have traveled.

San Franciscans, who have become the de-facto testers of this product, seem to be loving it. Zimride's Erin Simpson says, "After 12 weeks of operation we're doing hundreds of rides a day on the platform. We have a very enthusiastic user community and we've seen an 80% repeat rate of users, with 55% using Lyft on a weekly basis."

Zimride co-founder and Chief Operating Officer John Zimmer adds, "We launched Zimride to solve the problem that 80% of seats on our highways are empty. Our goal is to provide a more affordable, efficient and social forms of transportation. Over the past five years, we've saved our community $100 million in driving expenses."

Palm Oil Massive Source of Carbon Dioxide

The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, shows that deforestation for the development of oil palm plantations in Indonesian Borneo is becoming a globally significant source of carbon dioxide emissions.

Plantation expansion is projected to pump more than 558 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in 2020, an amount greater than all of Canada’s current fossil fuel emissions.

In 2010 alone, land-clearing for oil palm plantations in Kalimantan emitted more than 140 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, an amount equivalent to annual emissions from 28 million vehicles.

The spread between Brent Spot and WTI Spot closed today at $24.58. That is as wide as I have ever seen it.
Bloomberg Energy

                        PRICE*	CHANGE	% CHANGE   TIME
Dated Brent Spot	116.65	 2.51	  2.20%	   10/11
WTI Cushing Spot	 92.07	 0.82	  0.90%	   10/11

Ron P.

Earth Sunblock Only Needed If Planet Warms Easily

... Scientists measure climate sensitivity by how many degrees the atmosphere warms up if the concentration of carbon dioxide doubles. Smith said if the climate has a medium sensitivity of about 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) per doubling of carbon dioxide, "it's less likely we'd need solar radiation management at all. We'd have time to stabilize the climate if we get going on reducing emissions. But if it's highly sensitive, say 4.5 degrees Celsius (8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) per doubling, we're going to need to use solar radiation management if we want to limit temperature changes."

Crack found in weld on western Pa. nuclear reactor

The crack was found Saturday on the reactor vessel head of Unit 2 at the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Station, about 30 miles northwest of Pittsburgh. The unit has been down for regularly scheduled maintenance and refueling since Sept. 24.

NRC spokesman Neil Sheehan says no radiation leaked because the weld did not go all the way through. The power plant, like other nuclear facilities, is changing the metal alloys it uses on such welds, because the former alloys have been found to crack over time.

Report: Climate change behind rise in weather disasters

The Deepwater Horizon site has a large slick over it which is suspected to be coming from the bent riser pipe.

Man, New Orleans has its share and more of climate and oil industry wildness.

Azerbaijan threatens BP with 'serious measures' over oil revenue shortfall

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9603038/Azerbaija...

Ron reported recently about the decline at the ACG complex, what they are seeing in production must really be worrying the govt now, they are getting pretty aggro.