Re: Not So Hot

An article by BJORN LOMBORG? He does note:

Let's be clear. Global warming is real and man-made, and it needs an effective response. But unfounded alarmism and panic are unlikely to engender good and effective policy.

Has Lomborg decided to retract the claims in his book The Skeptical Environmentalist? Well, he does put in a plug for his later work, Cool It. His analysis in the article points to several possible sources for error in the referenced study, but those problems may also show out how difficult it is to calculate the long term impacts of climate change. Since I haven't taken the time to study the report, I can't comment about it's accuracy.

He continues:

If we want to leave the world a better place, we need to carefully focus on the places and policies where we can do the most good. To tackle the biggest impact the DARA study identifies -- to avoid 3 million people dying from indoor air pollution -- people in the Third World need to have access to modern, less-polluting fuels to cook and keep warm. They need kerosene, pressurized gas, and other forms of modern energy. It is about getting more fossil fuels, not fewer. (emphasis added)

I think Lomborg needs to think a bit further about whether all those fossil fuels will actually be available in increasing quantities in 2030. I think he's right to point out that people in developed nations are taking for granted our access to easily available energy at low prices...

E. Swanson

Regarding the Guardian article chosen by Leanan - Green deal: insulate your home from rising energy bills

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/sep/28/green-deal-insulate-home-ris...

If you are fed-up with living in a cold house or paying huge heating bills, and can't afford expensive home improvements, could the government's long-awaited green deal help? Unveiled in 2010, and promoted with the promise that "every British home will be able to install energy-saving technologies such as insulation at no upfront cost", this much talked-about scheme finally kicks off on Monday.

Negawatts are the best household investment a person can make as it provides benefits in the short, medium and longterm.

By making the housing stock more energy efficient we are in fact investing in our own pension and lessening the load that our children and future taxpayers must bear looking after each one us as we age.

We are also taking solid steps to lower the future cost of living, instead of borrowing from the future as we do under Business As Usual, we are investing in our own future and that of our children.

Negawatts forms the bedrock on which one community that I am involved with are building their future. The Aran Islands are a small group of islands situated in the Atlantic ocean off the west coast of Ireland and renewable energy resources are the only energy resources at their disposal.

http://www.siliconrepublic.com/clean-tech/item/28757-aran-islands-set-ta...

Re: article Nigeria boosting profit share

......from 61% to 73%

I have to ask why Canada's?Alberta's % share of the sands revenue on processed bitumen is so low? Sure, Provinces control mineral rights, but when Ed Stelmach proposed a very modest royalty increase the majors pretty much shut the Province down and the politicians caved.

As I understand it the town of Fort Mac is strained to the breaking point trying to provide services and infrastucture, but has no way to generate increased revenues from local production.

RMG, can you shed light on this topic and what is your opinion?

Thanks in advance....Paulo

Link up top: Oil Caps Biggest Quartely Gain This Year

OPEC Output
OPEC oil production was 32 million barrels a day in September, near a four-year high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The group’s spare production capacity climbed 11 percent this month to 5.531 million barrels a day, the highest level since October, according to Bloomberg data.

This contrast with: OPEC oil output falls in September: survey

Supply from the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has averaged 31.09 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 31.53 million bpd in August, the survey of sources at oil companies, OPEC officials and analysts found.

Okay, Bloomberg says OPEC oil production gained about half a million barrels per day in September while Reuthers says OPEC oil production fell by about the same amount. Someone don't know what they are talking about and I am not sure who it is. I guess we will have to wait until the OPEC OMR comes out on October 10th to find out.

But the real astonishing thing in the Bloomberg report was this: "The group’s spare production capacity climbed 11 percent this month to 5.531 million barrels a day." Astonishing, they know to within 1,000 barrels per day exactly what the OPEC spare capacity is. And I did the math and that comes to an increase in spare capacity of 548,000 barrels per day. Production increase plus spare capacity increase comes to about one million barrels per day. How do they know?

And it is not only that one Moming Zhou of Bloomberg knows to within 1,000 barrels per day what OPEC's spare capacity in, he/she says it is about two and one half times what the EIA says it is:
Libya Oil Halt Would ’Probably’ Cause Price Surge, EIA Says

A halt in Libya’s oil output would probably cause prices to soar because OPEC’s spare production capacity is limited to about 2 million barrels a day, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

I think this all just proves that no one has any idea what OPEC's spare capacity really is. I think that OPEC production has been flat out since April of this year. They have zero spare capacity, in my opinion anyway. But the idea that some reporter working for Bloomberg thinks he/she knows within one thousand barrels per day what OPEC's spare capacity really is, and it is in fact two and a half times what the EIA says it is, is really beyond the pale.

Ron P.

Paleoclimatology: Roots of Empire

The tree-ring data collected by Hessl and Pederson show that in the late 12th century, around the time Mongolia was wracked by intertribal warfare, the area did experience a cold, dry period. But a few decades later, as Genghis Khan began consolidating power, weather conditions appear to have substantially improved—and to nomads who rely on access to lakes for watering animals, that would have made all the difference. In times of abundant rain, pastoralists thrive, Hessl says: Very little human effort is needed to “create large amounts of meat that is mobile, that can be used for war, and that can be used to transport things.” Whole herds can be tended by children—leaving the men free to fight.

If more rainfall boosted grassland productivity and overall energy output, that could help explain why the Mongols were able to transition from a “chieftain society, where positions are hereditary” to managing a complex state covering a vast empire, Di Cosmo says: “A centralized state requires more resources.” The horses and food accumulated on the steppe would have enabled the Mongols to set out for China in pursuit of gold and silk—and from there on to more distant lands.

For its scale and grandeur, the expanded Mongol Empire was remarkably short-lived. Climactic shifts may help explain why. The preliminary tree-ring record suggests “a rapid change that was sustained for a few decades, and then that was it,” Hessl says. Around 1258, after an unidentified volcano unleashed a massive eruption that spewed sulfur and ash into the stratosphere, a cool, dry climate returned. Kublai Khan moved the Mongol capital to Dadu, now Beijing. Thereafter, he ruled as emperor of China, founding the Yuan Dynasty. But outside the region, the Mongols' power had begun to wane.

US Banks Hit By More Than a Week of Cyberattacks (Update)

U.S. banks have been buffeted by more than a week of powerful cyberattacks, but the mystery surrounding their perpetrators lingers.

... at least half a dozen banks—including the Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Bank, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bank, and Citigroup—have witnessed traffic surges and disruptions. Not all have confirmed they were the victims of an online onslaught, but such surges are a hallmark of denial-of-service attacks, which work by drowning target websites with streams of junk data.

... To get hold of all the servers necessary to launch such huge attacks, the organizers needed to plan for months, Alperovitch said. The servers had to be compromised and linked together into a network called a "botnet."

That level of pre-planning is a deviation from the kinds of denial of service attacks launched at banks in the past by so-called "hacktivists."

and Major banks hit with biggest cyberattacks in history

Stalling Science Threatens Every Domain of Modern Life

The looming "sequestration," across-the-board budget cuts that were never really meant to happen, could cripple key areas of science by slashing federal investment in research and development by an estimated 8.4 percent between now and 2017. That is not good for science, but it is also bad for an economy whose growth is driven by advances in science and technology.

... Slowing scientific progress seems a particularly bad idea for the United States at the same time that other countries are rapidly increasing their R&D investments. Since 1999, China's support for science, for example, has grown 10 times faster, as a percentage of its economy, or gross domestic product, compared with the United States. We also now invest a smaller share of our economy on R&D than Japan, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, Israel, and Finland.

Helium shortage deflates cross-country balloon race

Every fall since 1995, competitors lift off from the New Mexico city and drift as far as Maine, Florida and even Canada, reports CBS News affiliate KRQE. But times have changed for the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta and one of its biggest attractions, the America's Challenge race.

"Helium was pretty abundant and reasonably inexpensive," the race's founder, Mark Sullivan, told KRQE. "Until just recently you could fill a helium balloon for about $3,500."

Helium, the only gas used to compete in the race until 2005, has become rare and expensive. Sullivan said that a helium-only balloon would now cost a competitor about $15,000.

This year, only hydrogen balloons are participating in the race.

Melting icecap puts Europe’s woes in perspective

My Italian instructor, Simona, put the European crisis in fine perspective a while ago, as Italy tripped headlong into another recession and its hapless Mediterranean colleagues, Greece and Spain, redecorated their economies in stunning Titanic motif.

“We’ve seen worse,” she said, pausing for dramatic effect. “The fourth century was pretty bad.”

I came across this...thought I'd share

Surviving Alone in Alaska

It's an indie documentary about a family living in ANWR.

Heimo Korth is the last man standing in 19 million acres of Alaskan wilderness. His neighbors are polar bears and caribous. Say good bye to civilization and see how they do it in the arctic circle on the last frontier in America.

In 1980, Jimmy Carter established the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in the Alaskan Interior, cutting off 19 million acres of prime boreal wilderness from the mitts of fur trappers, oil tycoons, and would-be lodge owners alike. Only six families of white settlers were grandfathered in and allowed to keep cabins in the refuge—of them, only one still stays there year-round living off the land. His name is Heimo Korth, and he is basically the Omega Man of Americas Final Frontier.

Plutonium Fuel (MOX) Program at Savannah River Site Hit with Major Setback

... “Given Tennessee Valley Authority’s [TVA] reluctance in pursuing MOX and the fact that DOE has no customers to use experimental MOX fuel is reason to put the brakes on the entire MOX program and halt construction of the $6-billion MOX plant to nowhere,” said Tom Clements, Nonproliferation Policy Director with the Alliance for Nuclear Accountability. “It appears that the MOX program continues to degrade into a big-government program with a singular mission: transfer of tax payer money into the pockets of the plutonium industry.”

MOX fuel contains plutonium blended with natural uranium, reprocessed uranium, or depleted uranium.

Unexploded bombs lurk in U.S. offshore oil patch: experts

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Millions of pounds of unexploded bombs dumped in the Gulf of Mexico by the U.S. government after World War Two pose a significant risk to offshore drilling, according to Texas oceanographers.

As technological advances allow oil companies to push deeper into the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, these forgotten hazards pose a threat as the industry picks up the pace of drilling after BP Plc's deadly Macondo well blowout in 2010 that lead to the largest oil spill in U.S. history.

Unexploded ordnance has been found in the offshore zone known as Mississippi Canyon where the Macondo well was drilled.

The oil industry is no stranger to leftovers from the World War Two.

Last year, BP shut its key Forties crude pipeline in the North Sea for five days while it removed a 13-foot (4-metre) unexploded German mine found resting cozily next to the pipeline that transports up to 40 percent of the UK's oil production.

CVR Wynnewood, Oklahoma refinery boiler blast kills worker

HOUSTON (Reuters) - One worker was killed in a boiler explosion on Friday at CVR Energy Inc.'s 70,000 barrel per day (bpd) Wynnewood, Oklahoma, refinery, a company spokeswoman said in a statement.

Rhodes says the refinery had been shut down earlier this week for planned maintenance and that the boiler was being brought back online when it exploded.

The sheriff said the investigation will be turned over federal safety inspectors and to CVR Energy Inc. of Sugar Land, Texas, which owns the refinery.

About CVR Energy, Inc.

Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, CVR Energy, Inc.'s (NYSE: CVI) subsidiary and affiliated businesses operate independent refining assets in Coffeyville, Kan. and Wynnewood, Okla. with more than 185,000 barrels per day of processing capacity, a marketing network for supplying high value transportation fuels to customers through tanker trucks and pipeline terminals, and a crude oil gathering system serving Kansas, Oklahoma, western Missouri, southwestern Nebraska and Texas. In addition, CVR Energy subsidiaries own a majority interest in and serve as the general partner of CVR Partners, LP, a producer of ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate, or UAN, fertilizers.

What do people think of the following? Please note that I don't see any discussion of oil in the article, so he seems to exclude oil prices from his projected collapse.

"For the past two years, as regular readers know, I have been bearish on hard commodities. Prices may have dropped substantially from their peaks during this time, but I don’t think the bear market is over. I think we still have a very long way to go.

There are four reasons why I expect prices to drop a lot more.　First, during the last decade commodity producers were caught by surprise by the surge in demand. Their belated response was to ramp up production dramatically, but since there is a long lead-time between intention and supply, for the next several years we will continue to experience rapid growth in supply. As an aside, in my many talks to different groups of investors and boards of directors it has been my impression that commodity producers have been the slowest at understanding the full implications of a Chinese rebalancing, and I would suggest that in many cases they still have not caught on.

Second, almost all the increase in demand in the past twenty years, which in practice occurred mostly in the past decade, can be explained as the consequence of the incredibly unbalanced growth process in China. But as even the most exuberant of China bulls now recognize, China’s economic growth is slowing and I expect it to decline a lot more in the next few years.

Third, and more importantly, as China’s economy rebalances towards a much more sustainable form of growth, this will automatically make Chinese growth much less commodity intensive. It doesn’t matter whether you agree or disagree with my expectations of further economic slowing. Even if China is miraculously able to regain growth rates of 10-11% annually, a rebalancing economy will demand much less in the way of hard commodities.

And fourth, surging Chinese hard commodity purchases in the past few years supplied not just growing domestic needs but also rapidly growing inventory. The result is that inventory levels in China are much too high to support what growth in demand there will be over the next few years, and I expect Chinese in some cases to be net sellers, not net buyers, of a number of commodities.

This combination of factors – rising supply, dropping demand, and lots of inventory to work off – all but guarantee that the prices of hard commodities will collapse. I expect that certain commodities, like copper, will drop by 50% or more in the next two to three years."

http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/16/by-2015-hard-commodity-prices-will-hav...

Pipeline Violations Poorly Enforced: Engineer

Former TransCanada employee says rupture risk is widespread, files safety complaint to PMO, regulators. A Tyee investigation, part one.

By Andrew Nikiforuk, TheTyee.ca

Evan Vokes, a 47-year-old Calgary-based engineer and former TransCanada employee, has filed complaints with the National Energy Board, the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Alberta (APEGA is a self-regulating professional group that represents engineers) and the Prime Minister's Office documenting repeated violations of standard safety regulations and codes.
     --- snip ---
"When you sign onto engineering ethics you have a duty of care to the public before you do to your employer."

Melting icecap puts Europe’s woes in perspective

ERIC REGULY - ROME — The Globe and Mail

Historically speaking, the crisis (formerly the “debt crisis”) is a bump on the road, a pea under the mattress. Somehow, Europe and its people will survive. Simona decided instead to worry about remodelling her apartment. Me? I worried about climate change. My worry wins.

Climate change was always one of those amorphous blob concepts, vaguely threatening, but only vaguely, because you could not stick your head out the window and see it. For most people, at least for those in the wealthy parts of the world, where food comes from supermarkets and air conditioning means bursting thermometers can be ignored, climate change was someone else’s problem.

Eric Reguly is a business columnist! He's PO aware and recognizes the dismal economic consequences of climate change.

The article below found on Google news today is more remarkable for what it does not state than what it does. After painting a dire picture of the US economy it goes on to suggest we are headed for a recession in 2013. However, it never mentions the high cost of oil in it's influence to lower growth, increase debt or how it may have caused the failure of various forms of stimulus to spur higher GDP.

'Economic Signals Point to a 2013 Recession'

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239639044381680457800048411871306...

The following snipet is fascinating in relation to oil price during a period of much cheaper oil:

The Reagan recovery—built on sound money, low tax rates, limited government and trade liberalization—achieved 8% real growth rates after traumatic inflationary recessions in 1980 and 1982.

What is not mentioned is the oil embargo during the Carter presidency had lifted, oil price dropped back down and the US economic recovery hit a whopping 8%, making it look like Reagen was a genius.

Thatcher is another politician that benefitted from cheap oil from the North Sea.

Are we beginning to see a pattern here? Maybe Paris Hilton (if elected in some bizarro world) would be considered a great president if oil was about 30 dollars a barrel for all of her term. People would say they don't know how she did it, but growth jumped to 6% and unemployment dropped to 4%! They would exclaim who would have thought Paris could do such a great job as President?!

In my opinion, the only thing that has held Obama's camp together enough during this difficult time is boatloads of borrowed money and Ben's printing press.

The Dresden CarGo Tram

The CarGoTram is a freight tram in Dresden. It supplies Volkswagen's "Transparent Factory" with parts for their automobile production.

Hat Tip: Master Resource Report

I posted a link to a newspaper editorial column on Friday's DB. I submitted a comment that remained the only one until a response to my comment appeared yesterday. The text of the response suggests that it was written by a TOD member. The sentence

Were such a black swan moment to occur, one whereby a new mega-Ghawar-like deposit is found, we will still need to change our ways unless we want to breathe through respirators

The use of "black swan" was a dead give-away added to which, it is an extremely small proportion of the public, outside of TOD members, who even know what Ghawar is.

In response to the editorial (and my comment?), the Group Managing Director of the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica has written a letter, published today (Sunday)

LETTER OF THE DAY - Forge ahead with oil exploration

In light of this, now is not the time to retreat from oil exploration. On the contrary, the positive indicators from scientific surveys should serve to strenuously emphasise that this is the time to forge ahead, particularly in light of our need to end our costly dependence on foreign oil.

As the agency tasked with addressing the country's energy needs, it is the duty of the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica to vigorously promote Jamaica's potential as an oil producer and to aggressively seek business alliances that will result in the full exploitation of this potential for our economic and social development.

As is often the case when countries venture into uncharted territory, the initial discourse can be coloured by limited or even incorrect information. We would, therefore, welcome the opportunity to broaden the dialogue on these matters.

MARIO ANDERSON (PhD)

Group Managing Director

PCJ

I must be getting better at crafting my comments since my response to this letter was published in short order. I made the point:

If the prospects were as good as Mr. Anderson appears to be implying, we would not have to be applying any pressure at all for interested partners to start drilling. Why is Shell, for example, willing to disregard the balmy Caribbean waters preferring instead to risk exploring in the remote and harsh conditions of Alaskan Arctic waters, conditions that are so unfavourable as to stymie their attempts to begin drilling this past summer. They will now have to keep very expensive equipment in storage until winter in the northern hemisphere has ended. What does Mr. Anderson know that all the all world's major oil companies do not?

I would to hear the take of some of the oil patch folks here on TOD (ROCKMAN, RockyMtnGuy, Westexas?) on this situation. What would be even more interesting is a comment from somebody "in the know" as a response to this letter!

Alan from the islands

It would be interesting to pull energy out of this graph, see what happens. Housing, transportation, food is where I've been investing my negabucks and negawatts; traveling less, growing my own (AMAP), getting the homeplace free and clear, and much less expensive to live in and maintain.

http://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/economy/us-spending/?iid=HP_LN
(slide the bar at the bottom to see how these costs vary with income level)

It's pretty clear where we need to invest in efficiency.

Gosh, not sure whether to laugh or cry...

Iran's news agency portrays satirical Onion story as its own

(CNN) -- Add Iran's news agency to the long list of those hoodwinked by the satire of The Onion.

Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency published a story Friday claiming that a Gallup poll found that rural white Americans prefer Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over President Barack Obama...

..."TEHRAN (FNA) -- According to the results of a Gallup poll released Monday, the overwhelming majority of rural white Americans said they would rather vote for Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad than US President Barack Obama."

(The Onion story used a Charleston, West Virginia, dateline.)

The article went on to quote a West Virginia resident as saying he would rather grab a ballgame or a drink with the Iranian leader than with Obama.

The phony resident then lauded Ahmadinejad: "He takes national defense seriously, and he'd never let some gay protesters tell him how to run his country like Obama does."

If that weren't enough, Fars continued, "According to the same Gallup poll, 60 percent of rural whites said they at least respected that Ahmadinejad doesn't try to hide the fact that he's Muslim."

PetroSA says it’s crunch time on R82bn refinery

Delays in the implementation of the R82 billion [about $10 billion] crude oil refinery at the Coega industrial development zone (IDZ) in Port Elizabeth could plunge the country into a “fuel crisis” similar to the energy crunch currently facing Eskom, according to national fuel parastatal PetroSA’s chief executive, Nosizwe Nokwe-Macamo.

Last year, government approved the project, but has not given the official go-ahead to start securing funding.

Now there is a joint study between PetroSA and Sinopec, a Chinese state-owned energy company, to finalise the refinery’s projected capacity, configuration and costing.

It is estimated that by 2020 South Africa will have to import 180,000 barrels per day of gasoline and diesel if there is no significant investment in local refining capacity.

Another Week Brings More Pessimistic Drought News

As has been the case throughout the month of September, the latest weekly drought update shows that drought conditions have tightened their grip on the Plains States and Western U.S., and the overall drought footprint expanded to encompass 65.45 percent of the lower 48 states, up from 64.8 percent on Sept. 18. This represents the highest areal coverage in the 12-year history of the Drought Monitor analysis, topping last week's record.

As of Sept. 25, the worst categories of drought — extreme to exceptional drought conditions — encompassed nearly one quarter of the lower 48 states. Nearly all of Nebraska, with the exception of a sliver in the southeastern corner of the state, is suffering under extreme to exceptional drought conditions — 98 percent, to be exact.

Venezuela increases oil products imports substantially after Amuay Disaster

Updated September 28, 2012, 10:57 p.m. ET

Venezuela Ramps Up Fuel Imports Ahead of Election

State energy monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela SA bought at least 2.5 million barrels of fuel from around the U.S. Gulf Coast since the beginning of September, according to one person at a local shipping company, who asked not to be identified because the company receives contracts from PdVSA, as the state company is known.

...

We don't import gasoline," Mr. Ramirez said. But oil traders and shippers familiar with Venezuela's foreign fuel purchases suggest differently. A U.S.-based oil trader said fuel cargos are heading from the U.S. to Venezuela to avert shortfalls, and long-term supplies are being looked at even though the rush to secure fuel has slowed down a bit from the immediate aftermath of the deadly Amuay refinery explosion.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087239639044475250457802504326394279...

Keep in mind many energy 'experts' a month ago said Venezuela would have little impact on US gasoline supplies, and most expected that US gasoline prices would decline in September. But instead this: Spectacular Gasoline Price Superspike Marks Monthly Close of Futures Trading.

August 25, 2012

The Amuay Disaster

The huge and deadly blast at the Amuay refinery may have a great impact on US gasoline supplies. Coming only a few weeks after the large Richmond, CA refinery fire, the impact of these twin refinery disasters will ripple worldwide through the oil product supply chain – especially for gasoline.

Note that even before the Amuay refinery blow up, Venezuela, which formerly exported gasoline to the US, is now importing gasoline from the US. Now in the aftermath of Amuay, Venezuela may make heavy demands on US gasoline and diesel supplies.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9443/913661

According to EIA data world C+C production has been sustained between 75 Mb/d and 76 Mb/d for 7 months. If the EIA data is believable and not revised downward in the future, then production has risen above the plateau.

In Finland, TVO who ordered the new nuclear plant from AREVA is now suing AREVA for 1.8 billion in damages for the delays in construction. The case is likely to take several years.

http://www.mtv3.fi/uutiset/talous.shtml/2012/10/1626837/olkiluoto-sotku-pahenee-tvo-vaatii-arevalta-miljardikorvauksia

Water fueling regional conflicts in India

Hundreds of Indian farmers in Karnataka state are protesting against a court order for the release of water from a disputed river to Tamil Nadu state.

Train and bus services between the state capital Bangalore and the city of Mysore have been partially disrupted by the protesting farmers.

Tension is high between the two states over the ongoing long dispute over sharing water from the Cauvery river.

Most suggestions for energy saving proposed by TOD readers are applicable to the domestic sector. I wonder what's available in other sectors.

You need to package the energy-saver as a product and sell it to a business as something they can install and forget, not as something extra they have to worry about.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States

Sector Summary (Energy Flow*)

*Energy Flows from Lawrence Livermore/DoE chart "Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2010: ~ 98.0 Quads". Waste energy of electricity generation added to sectors pro-rata their electricity consumption.