OIL’S ASSAULT ON THE ARCTIC

One of the more frequent stories in energy news this year has been the ramping up of expeditions by nations to explore the potential of the arctic as an energy source. This activity is now far more feasible due to the glaringly obvious trend of increasing summer sea ice melt which allows ships to traverse areas once inaccessible.

What are the risks? Here is a short inventory, including some concerns aired in the news and other problems that may not be so well known. I’ve ranked them from those likely having the greatest impact to those probably having the least impact.

1. Particle matter ice darkening
If a large number of ships, drilling rigs and/or processing plants are positioned in the arctic, they will produce exhaust fumes which will certainly have dark particle matter that will fall on ice. This will, in turn, increase heat absorption and increase the speed of melting. Ice darkening may be the most serious side effect of the rush to drill as a thin film of pollution on the ice could spread over such a large area as to dramatically reduce ice cover by mid summer. We see photos of one or two ships so this doesn’t sink in. Instead, think of hundreds and hundreds of ships and rigs and the cumulative impact of dirty localized fumes- day, after day, after day.

2. Ice breaking
As massive numbers of ships cross the icy waters, many will cut lanes through the ice turning white reflective area into darker ocean that absorbs more heat. Sea lanes also increase wave action leading to the earlier break up of thinner ice. Ice breaking by ships allows still water to be exposed to wind action which imparts its own energy- breaking up ice even more. If enough lanes cross each other in a jigsaw pattern- entire ice sheets may disintegrate in a matter of weeks from multiple wave disruption and the warmth from exposed waters. More sea exposed could lead to more evaporation and precipitation in the summer. There was a rare arctic storm this year- partially made possible by so much exposed water.

3. Flaring
Natural gas is likely to be found along with oil. This poses a transport problem as gas is less concentrated and more voluminous. Also, oil is likely to be worth more than gas and it may be uneconomic to even bother with capturing gas. If this situation arises, as it has in North Dakota, companies will simply flare the less valuable by-product leading to increased atmospheric temperatures and more particle pollution (see #1 above).

4. Spills
Exploring and drilling in such a remote and environmentally challenging area as the arctic is bound to increase the odds of seepages, blowouts, etc. It may be very hard to stop these when repair equipment is so far away. In any case, why bother? No nation owns the arctic and, unlike Deep Water Horizon (close to LA), there will be little urgency to clean up a spill. Washed up oil could darken a significant about of ice and this is magnified if it is spread around by storm action.

5. Confrontation
The arctic is something of an international no man’s land and countries are bound to clash over drilling rights. If an armed conflict were to occur in this environment, large amounts of smoke might be produced and ice sheets may be subjected to shattering hits. This effect is probably minor compared to the others listed however as the area involved would be relatively small.

OUTDATED MAPS?
Arctic sea ice researchers have created charts projecting the decline of ice cover over the coming years. These charts consider man-made changes in the atmosphere as the main driver of the other changes. However, if arctic oil exploration takes off in a big way (and the boom in shale, sands and fracking is a warning that it could) then sea ice decline forecasts may quickly become obsolete as oil exploration speeds up ice destruction.

DOES IT MATTER?
Some would argue: “it doesn’t matter, the arctic is dying anyway”. This may yet be true, however we don’t know if all the ice will ever melt. Though warm wind and water currents reduce much ice- direct radiation plays a large role. Some ice will be very difficult to thaw because it is farther from the sun. To paraphrase a peak oil saying- the easy ice may already be melted. The ice that remains may play a critical role in stabilizing our climate- it is risky to write it off and plow through it.

Of course, the oil finds may be disappointing and this may all collapse. The arctic may turn out to be way too expensive to justify much activity based on results. Still, this was said before with fracking, shale, etc. so one shouldn’t presume the arctic will be a bust. It is hard to imagine that there is nothing of value in such a large area.

One thing is very certain however: gone are any shreds of hope from Kyoto that we might save the arctic for everyone, for we have entered an age where it is now directly in the crosshairs- to be carved up as the spoils of folly. One could not imagine such a sea change in attitude ten years ago- it is as if we are a different people now and routinely put the toe tag on those polar bears we cared about so much then. One senses that international discussion to stop this is inconceivable.

NOTE: I would be interested if anyone has identified other impacts of drilling and shipping in the arctic that I have missed. The reason I wrote this was to stir your thinking and hear new ideas.

In what other ways might oil exploration hasten arctic decline?

Shell abandons Alaska offshore drilling efforts until next year

They are bound and determined to Nigeriaize everything.

Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years

Look out:

... we must ... urgently examine other ways of slowing global warming, such as the various geoengineering ideas that have been put forward."

These include reflecting the sun's rays back into space, making clouds whiter and seeding the ocean with minerals to absorb more CO2.

Geoengineering? What the hell does he think got us to this precipice in the first place? Will insanity never cease (The Peak of Sanity)?

The main point here, is that these guys have been saying this ice extent would not melt til the end of the century, now when they see reality they PANIC, and will do even more damage if they do not come to their senses.

More CO2 in the ocean would be just another disaster. Neither the atmosphere nor the oceans need more CO2.

Richard Heinberg on Australian TV

Sydney, Lateline Business

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-17/peak-oil-and-the-threat-to-growth/...

Ticky still enjoys the debate

FOR ALL - ON THE LIGHTER SIDE

"The Rocks Don't Lie" - Saw an interesting interview with the author of this new book. From the link:

http://www.americanscientist.org/bookshelf/pub/the-rocks-dont-lie

"Geomorphologist David R. Montgomery casts a critical yet sympathetic eye on flood myths, finding substance for them in Tibet, the Philippines and elsewhere, while systematically disassembling the universality of Noah’s Flood. "The Rocks Don’t Lie" traces the history of the field of geology through the thinking that progressively debunked the great-flood myth and left behind, temporarily, what would be resurrected 150 years later as Creationism".

"Picking up a book...I expected to learn geology and was not disappointed. "The Rocks Don’t Lie" intertwines geologic history and the author’s own field trips in an engrossing way. Montgomery offers a much richer story than I was taught as an undergraduate..." I was not prepared, however, to be schooled on how the Bible has been interpreted over the past millennium. ...the book recounts how John Calvin’s views of Noah’s Flood differed from those of Martin Luther. Luther turns out to be the literalist, stating that Moses “spoke properly and plainly, and neither allegorically nor figuratively.” Calvin took a more restrained view: He interpreted the Genesis story literally but did not imagine that the great flood was responsible for the topography around him or the fossils in the rocks of his beloved Swiss Alps."

In the interview Montgomery pointed out a bit of trivia: most of the original developments of geologic principles were constructed by theological experts funded by the various churches and during expeditions led by folks like the Jesuits.

Perhaps this could be one more acronym to toss at the folks who can't grasp the geological side of PO: TRDL.

Another encouraging story for the end of Auto Addiction on the young forsaking cars - car ownership down by 30%!:
http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/17/news/economy/young-buying-cars/index.htm...

Young Americans ditch the car
By Steve Hargreaves @CNNMoney September 17, 2012: 10:34 AM ET
The share of new cars purchased by those aged 18-34 dropped 30% in the last five years, according to the car shopping web site Edmunds.com.
...

When the average cost of car ownership even according to Auto Addiction pusher AAA is $9300 per year it is no wonder youth with high unemployment are abandoning cars.
On the other hand the cost of a monthly Metro Pass in Green Transit New York City that allows unlimited rides on all subways and buses across the 5 Boroughs of New York, enough miles to travel to Chicago is only $104 per month or $1248 per year!

If the US Federal, State and Local governments seriously promoted Green Transit this could
result in major transportation savings for the 79% of Americans in urbanized areas, also saving oil, greenhouse emissions, land and 66% of the US trade imbalance which goes to imported oil.

Studies of Desoto canyon and shelf in Gulf of Mexico uncover upwelling during Hurricane Isaac

... Prior to Hurricane Isaac the team flew over the area and deployed 54 devices to collect baseline oceanic and atmospheric data over the shelf and shelf break. After the storm, the team worked with the flight crew at NOAA's Aircraft Operation Center located at McDill Air Force Base to deploy another 67 probes and get a post-hurricane snapshot of the area tying the response from several research flights. The information from each of the flights is being analyzed by scientists, and for input into both research models that are being developed for Deep-C as well as operational models at forecasting centers.

... One of the ways the fate of oil can be determined is to study an effect called weathering—that is, how oil that is discharged into the environment changes over time. Weathering affects the properties of spilled oil and according to Reddy, oil from the deep bottom will have weathered differently than samples already on the shore prior to the storm that were simply unearthed or exposed by the winds and rain of Hurricane Isaac.

Personal analysis by

James Beck, Lead Analyst, Weekly Petroleum Supply Team for the Energy Information Administration

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#Q6fK1rkcTU2L0Las.99

This should really interest those here that analyse EIA data. I look forward to your comments.

Rapid intensification of global struggle for land

... "Even in a huge country like Brazil, there is not enough land to grow biofuels, food and cattle fodder without negatively impacting on the climate and biodiversity", says Kenneth Hermele.

It is true that biofuels are not grown in the rainforest, but sugar cane cultivation replaces other crops, like soya, which in turn expands onto grazing land. New areas for grazing are needed, and they can be found in the Amazon.

"In Brazil, cattle ranchers are often singled out as the villains of the piece because it is they who burn down the rainforest to provide grazing for their cattle. In actual fact, their actions are merely a consequence of the increase in cultivation of sugar cane and soya on land that was previously used for cattle farming", explains Hermele.

Model used by US government underestimates costs of carbon pollution, climate change

The U.S. federal government is significantly underestimating the costs of carbon pollution because it is using a faulty analytical model, according to a new study published in the Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences.

Johnson, who co-authored the study (with Chris Hope of Judge Business School, University of Cambridge) "The Social Cost of Carbon in U.S. Regulatory Impact Analyses," said the model used by the government is incomplete because it all but ignores the economic damages that climate change will inflict on future generations. That model was the product of an interagency task force comprised of six cabinet agencies and six executive branch offices.

The real benefits of carbon reduction range from 2.6 to more than 12 times higher than the government's estimate. "It turns out that the price we now pay for energy is much higher than what shows up on our electric bills or the tab at the gas pump," Johnson said.

Without properly accounting for pollution costs, natural gas appears to be the cheapest generation option for new power plants. However, the revised estimates show that, after incorporating the economic costs of carbon and other pollutants from fossil fuel generation, building new generation using wind and solar power would be more cost effective than either natural gas or coal.

As drought hits corn, biotech firms see lush field in GMO crops

WOODLAND, Calif. — The worst U.S. drought in half a century is withering the nation's corn crop, but it's a fertile opportunity for makers of genetically modified crops.

Agricultural biotechnology companies have been pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into developing plants that can withstand the effects of a prolonged dry spell.

Despite objections from anti-GMO activists, biotech companies are going full steam ahead on developing and patenting drought-tolerant plants they can sell at a premium.

... But for all their efforts, researchers say even drought-hardy varieties are not guaranteed to survive an extended drought.

"There's only so much you can do," said Renee Lafitte, a research fellow at Pioneer's Woodland research facility who has studied drought tolerance for almost three decades. "This is not cactus."

Graph of the Day: Union Membership in the U.S. and Canada, 1920-2009

Washington, D.C. (CEPR) – Unionization in the United States has been on the decline since the 1960s.

While many reasons have been offered to explain this drop in the rate of unionization, a new report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research highlights the roles that employer opposition to unions and weak labor laws have played in this decline.

The report, “Protecting Fundamental Labor Rights: Lessons from Canada for the United States,” begins with a comparison of the current state of organized labor in the United States and Canada. It notes that, from the 1920s to about 1960, Canada and the United States had roughly the same unionization rates. But in 1960, the two began to diverge. As of 2011, the unionization rate in Canada stood at 29.7 percent, compared to less than half that in the U.S., at 11.8 percent.

The difference between 1920s an 2010s ...

... The economic prosperity of the decade [1920s] led to stable prices, eliminating one major incentive to join unions. Unemployment rarely dipped below 5 percent in the 1920s and few workers feared real wage losses.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_history_of_the_United_States#Weakness...

How a Farming Community Handled Death Prior to WWII

This is a true account of how a rural Missouri farming community handled death before WWII, as told by Letty Owings, age 87.

Death was all a part of life ... In those days death was common among infants and young children in general, and it was not regarded with the same concern that it is today. It wasn't that people were mean about it, they were just more honest. In other words, deaths of infants and children were almost expected. Causes of death among slave children in particular were never noted or studied during that time, although looking back one can speculate that tuberculosis, pneumonia, and other diseases and childbirth complications common to that era for all children may have been the cause. We must bear in mind that penicillin was not available until after WWII.

It's Us or the Nukes

... Congressman Dennis Kucinich is hosting a Congressional briefing, Thursday, September 20, 2012, on the medical effects of radiation exposure, and the health threats presented by our nation's nuclear power plants, nuclear fleet, and the on-going tragedy in Fukushima, Japan. There will be expert testimony from Physicians for Social Responsibility and others.

There is an ongoing nuclear disaster in Japan that has displaced hundreds of thousands of people. Prior to this disaster, the regulators in Japan said they had all safety measures possible in place. Our Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has said the same thing about our 104 aging nuclear power plants, 23 of which have the same flawed design as in Fukushima.

Georgia officials give drought the silent treatment

Depending on whom you ask, Georgia is doing fine, or it's suffering from historic drought.

Georgians have gotten a swift education: Since 1999, the state has spent more years in drought than in normal conditions. Federal maps show that more than half of Georgia is now in extreme or exceptional drought, at a time when 70% of the country is experiencing abnormal aridity.

Environmentalists, scientists and farmers point to places like the Flint, as well as reservoir levels and stream and rainfall data as proof of drought. Republican Gov. Nathan Deal and much of the business community contend that there is no drought. Unlike his predecessor, Deal has yet to declare one.

The state's resistance to more drastic measures stems from its desire to protect its business-friendly image, critics say. "Atlanta is the brightest symbol of the 'New South,' and the Southern miracle depends on the use of natural resources," said Gordon Rogers, executive director of Flint Riverkeeper, an environmental group. "And the key resource is water."

Another move that critics say betrays a pro-business approach to the water issue is Deal's annexation of the state climatologist's office into his administration from its historical perch at the University of Georgia. Some contend that the shift limits the office's independence and is part of the administration's broader effort to play down the drought.

... kinda like sea-level in N.Carolina

Oil Tumbles in New York, Reversing Earlier 0.5% Advance

Oil declined the most in eight weeks after dropping $2.67 a barrel in six minutes during the last 30 minutes of floor trading.

Crude for October delivery fell $2.38, or 2.4 percent, to settle at $96.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price fell to $94.65 at 2:09 p.m. from $97.32 at 2:03 p.m. on a surge in volume.

Ah, the workings of the "free" market. One wonders which "Invisible Hand" pulled what levers...

E. Swanson

Oil industry consensus is a fallacy, says Report into crude oil prices

Oil prices are likely to rise sharply from 2015, surpassing $150 a barrel in 2019 and 2020, Bernstein Research said, in a report at odds with a growing oil industry consensus that says rising supplies of unconventional oil will moderate prices.

The 180-page report from Bernstein estimates Brent will rise from an average $113 in 2015 to $158 in 2020, with US crude priced at a $5 discount, almost doubling the price of oil since Brent averaged $80 a barrel in 2010...

The report forecast oil markets will be balanced for the next two years, kept in check by price elasticity as higher prices erode demand and lower prices shut in supply. But in the second half of the decade it says demand will rise, non-Opec supply will fall and Opec spare capacity will drop.

I find this extremely interesting. The traders, or speculators, are wrong. They think oil prices will drop because "unconventional oil" will increase and drive prices down. But Bernstein Research says it ain't gonna happen, non-Opec supply has peaked, or is peaking and will fall. OPEC spare capacity will drop.

I disagree. OPEC spare capacity is now zero and cannot drop. Every OPEC nation is now producing flat out. And there is likely that OPEC production has peaked, or very near their peak. And as the report said non-OPEC production is very mature and about to decline. Peak oil is very likely in the rear view mirror.

And backing up this line of thought:

Conventional wisdom about unconventional oil is probably wrong

Then in its 2010 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency announced that the peak in the rate of production of conventional oil had already arrived, probably in 2006. There was some good news, however. Production of so-called "unconventional oil" would grow considerably over the coming decades and allow total oil production to rise.

And... they were wrong.

Ron P.

Rapid urban expansion threatens biodiversity: study

A brief window of opportunity exists to shape the development of cities globally before a boom in infrastructure construction transforms urban land cover, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The growth in urban areas will coincide with the construction of roads and buildings, water and sanitation facilities, and energy and transport systems that will transform land cover and cities globally. Recent estimates suggest that between $25 trillion and $30 trillion will be spent on infrastructure worldwide by 2030, with $100 billion a year in China alone.

"Given the long life and near irreversibility of infrastructure investments, it will be critical for current urbanization-related policies to consider their lasting impacts," ...

Urban expansion will have significant impacts on biodiversity hotspots around the world. "We need to rethink conservation policies and what it means to be a sustainable city," said Burak Güneralp, the study's second author and research assistant professor at Texas A&M University. "It's not all about carbon footprint, which is what mayors and planners typically think about now, but we need to consider how urban expansion will have implications for other, nonhuman species and the value of these species for present and future generations."

Report: Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

Another reason to dump the car ...

Risk of developing diabetes higher in neighborhoods that aren't walk-friendly

Researchers found this risk was particularly high for new immigrants living in low-income neighbourhoods. A new immigrant living in a less walkable neighbourhood – fewer destinations within a 10-minute walk, lower residential density, poorly connected streets – was about 50 per cent more likely to develop diabetes when compared to long-term residents living in the most walkable areas, regardless of neighbourhood income.

Dr. Booth said neighbourhoods that were the least walkable were often newly developed areas – characterized by urban sprawl – in part because of the reliance on cars caused by suburban design.

Fukushima Mutant Butterflies Confirm Harm from Low-Dose Radiation

Radiation from the Fukushima fallout caused physiological and genetic damage to the pale grass blue butterfly Zizeeria maha, concludes a research team at the University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan, whose results were published online in August 2013 [1].

Adult butterflies in the fallout area collected in May 2011 showed relatively mild abnormalities that became more severe and doubled in frequency in the next generation. These severe abnormalities were inherited, as shown by breeding from the deformed butterflies.

Adult butterflies collected from the same fallout area in September 2011 showed more severe abnormalities than those collected in May.

Similar abnormalities were experimentally reproduced by exposing larvae from a non-contaminated area to radiation externally or internally.

The Dragons of Inaction: Psychological Barriers That Limit Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

... Although many individuals are engaged in some ameliorative action, most could do more, but they are hindered by seven categories of psychological barriers, or “dragons of inaction”: limited cognition about the problem, ideological worldviews that tend to preclude pro-environmental attitudes and behavior, comparisons with key other people, sunk costs and behavioral momentum, discredence toward experts and authorities, perceived risks of change, and positive but inadequate behavior change. Structural barriers must be removed wherever possible, but this is unlikely to be sufficient. Psychologists must work with other scientists, technical experts, and policymakers to help citizens overcome these psychological barriers.

New book by Andrew Nikiforuk, "The Energy of Slaves"

A few interviews and reviews...

Andrew Nikiforuk denounces the Energy of Slaves Toronto Star
REVIEW: The Energy of Slaves: Oil and the New Servitude Maclean's
Calgary author draws parallels between human slavery and current energy use openfile.ca

And a book launch in Toronto.

State of the Climate - Global Analysis - August 2012

Considering global land surfaces only, June–August 2012 was record warm, at 1.03°C (1.85°F) above average. The highest anomalies occurred across parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including most of the contiguous United States and Canada, southern and eastern Europe, Kazakhstan, and eastern Siberia. Even with cooler-than-average temperatures in Alaska and northern Europe, the Northern Hemisphere observed its all-time warmest summer on record. And even with below-average temperatures across much of southern South America and northern and eastern Australia, the Southern Hemisphere observed its tenth warmest winter on record.

It's well past time we acted?

From The Globe and Mail: Oil Makes Its Rail Connection

Canada's oil patch is quietly sending large new volumes of oil on rail cars, even as it fights to overcome opposition to plans for new pipelines to the U.S. Gulf Coast and Canada's West Coast.

"...an analysis of whether the current unrest in the Middle East makes it more or less likely the U.S. will intervene in the worsening crisis in Syria."
http://ianmasters.com/sites/default/files/images/bbriefing_2012_09_17a_b...
"Conflict will go on for months if not years."

Firing of inert/practice chemical weapons shells in Syria
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/syria-tested-chemical-weapons-...

Anti-Japan protests reignite across China on occupation anniversary

Well-known Japanese firms have been targeted by protesters, with car makers Toyota Motor Corp and Honda Motor Co halting some operations after attacks on their outlets.

Other Japanese companies -- from Mazda and Mitsubishi Motors to Panasonic and Fast Retailing -- also shut plants and stores in China, sending Japanese share prices falling and prompting a warning from credit rating agency Fitch that the situation could hurt some auto and tech firms' creditworthiness.

Japan's top general retailer, Seven & I Holdings said it will resume business at all its 13 Ito Yokado supermarkets and 198 "7-11" convenience stores in the cities of Beijing and Chengdu on Wednesday.

Some firms recalled workers back to Japan due to the unrest.

"The situation on the ground in China is not so good and I was advised by the locals not to go out. I couldn't get any work done," Japanese expatriate worker Hisato Takase said on arrival at Tokyo's Haneda airport.

Japanese restaurants, a common target of protesters, barred their doors while many Japanese expatriates stayed home.

This is a most interesting article. We may hit peak oil but there is really no way we will ever hit peak oil because it is all about politics and geography, not oil.

Has Unconventional Oil Production Peaked?

Before any peak oilers reading this article get excited, the ‘peak’ here is in no way geological. We have more than enough hydrocarbons riddling the earth’s crust to incinerate ourselves eight times over. Rather, the peak might be geopolitical.

Even when we do hit peak oil the peak oil deniers still have an out.

Head down to Brazil, and the scale of pre-salt finds have been enormous for Petrobras (700 million barrels in the Campos Basin alone).

Wow! That would supply the world for all of 8 days. Yes that is enormous. These reporters tell it like it is.

Ron P.

Challengers to Clovis-age impact theory missed key protocols, study finds

An interdisciplinary team of scientists from seven U.S. institutions says a disregard of three critical protocols, including sorting samples by size, explains why a group challenging the theory of a North American meteor-impact event some 12,900 years ago failed to find iron- and silica-rich magnetic particles in the sites they investigated.

The new independent analysis—published this week in the online Early Edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences—did, in fact, isolate large quantities of the "microspherules" at the involved sites where the challengers previously reported none. Lead author Malcolm A. LeCompte, an astrophysicist at Elizabeth City State University in North Carolina, said the findings support the climate-altering cosmic impact ..."These spherules have evidence of very high-temperature melting and very rapid cooling, which is characteristic of debris ejected from an impact," LeCompte said.

After removing chert debris associated with tool making in soil at the depth of the Clovis occupation, LeCompte said, researchers observed virtually no spherules below it, while in soil just above the chert fragments they found a spike in the number of telltale spherules.

Further above that level, he noted, the soil layers were essentially "a dead zone" somewhat analogous to the K-T boundary, or "tombstone layer," from an extinction event that occurred 65 million years ago. At Topper, the dead zone showed almost no trace of human habitation for perhaps as long as 1,000 years duration.

Topper site in middle of comet controversy

Younger-Dryas is what scientists refer to as the period of extreme cooling that began around 12,900 years ago and lasted 1,300 years ... The extreme rapid cooling that took place can be likened to the 2004 sci-fi blockbuster movie "The Day After Tomorrow." ... evidence consistent with a massive impact that could have killed off the Clovis people and the large North American animals of the day. Thirty-six species, including the mastodon, mammoth and saber-toothed tiger, went extinct.

Manhattan-sized ice island heads out to sea

Remember that enormous slab of ice that broke off Greenland's Petermann Glacier back in July? It's now on its way out to sea, a little bit smaller than it was a couple of months ago—but not much. At around 10 miles long and 4.6 miles across (16.25 x 7.5 km) this ice island is actually a bit shorter than Manhattan, but is fully twice as wide.

Very interesting Video

Sea surface temperatures reach record highs on Northeast continental shelf

During the first six months of 2012, sea surface temperatures in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem were the highest ever recorded, according to the latest Ecosystem Advisory issued by NOAA's Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC). Above-average temperatures were found in all parts of the ecosystem, from the ocean bottom to the sea surface and across the region, and the above average temperatures extended beyond the shelf break front to the Gulf Stream.

Friedland said the average sea surface temperature (SST) exceeded 10.5 degrees C (51°F) during the first half of 2012, exceeding the previous record high in 1951. Average SST has typically been lower than 9 degrees C (48°F) over the past three decades. Sea surface temperature in the region is based on both contemporary satellite remote-sensing data and long-term ship-board measurements, with historical SST conditions based on ship-board measurements dating back to 1854.

In some nearshore locations like Delaware and Chesapeake Bays in the Middle Atlantic Bight region, temperatures were more than 6 degrees C (11°F) above historical average at the surface and more than 5 degrees C (9°F) above average at the bottom. In deeper offshore waters to the north, bottom waters were 1 degree C (2°F) warmer in the eastern Gulf of Maine and greater than 2 degrees C (3.6°F) warmer in the western Gulf of Maine.

Who Are the 47 Percent? 7 Facts about the Americans Mitt Romney Attacked

... While a majority of those who don’t pay income tax don’t do so because they are either elderly or don’t earn enough, there are “some exceptions to the old-or-poor rule,” says Roose. One big, rich exception: the roughly 3,000 members of the top 0.1 percent of taxpayers—they earned more than $2,178,866 in 2011—who paid no federal income tax because they were hedge-fund managers, real-estate investors, or wealthy financiers whose income is derived from capital gains, which are taxed at very low levels. When that rate is combined with a concept called “tax-loss carryforward,” which Roose says “allows an investor to use last year’s big loss to offset this year’s gains for tax purposes,” these top earners don’t have to pay federal income tax.

... Romney argues that the 47 percent he’s referring to in his sound bite will always vote for Obama, but, according to David A. Graham at The Atlantic, a disproportionate amount of those people actually reside in red states—which typically vote for Republican candidates. Of the 10 states with the highest percentage of people who pay no income tax, nine are red states.

The 47%: Who They Are, Where They Live, How They Vote, and Why They Matter

Reports: Jimmy Carter’s grandson helped leak Romney fundraiser video

Tron-like map of bike journeys reveals London's hubs

It's a snapshot of 5 million bicycle journeys - and a handy map of London's commuter hotspots.

This image is a still from an animation created by visualisation specialist Jo Wood at City University in London. He based it on data from the first 5 million journeys pedalled in the Barclays Cycle Hire scheme since its launch in July 2010.

In the animation (see below) the least travelled routes begin to fade out after about 15 seconds - "like a graphic equaliser," says collaborator Andrew Huddart, also at City University. Around the 1-minute mark, structure emerges from the chaos and three major systems become clear: routes around, and through, the lozenge-shaped Hyde Park in the west, and commutes in and out of King's Cross St Pancras in the north and between Waterloo and the City in the east.

Heat and Drought Ravage U.S. Crop Prospects—Global Stocks Suffer

September estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show 2012 U.S. corn yields at 123 bushels per acre, down by a fourth from the 2009 high of 165 bushels per acre. Yields are the lowest since 1995 and well below the average of the last 30 years. The summer heat and drought also hit U.S. soybean yields, which are down 20 percent from their 2009 peak.

Oil’s $3 Slump In A Minute: Analysts Still Scratching Their Heads

There’s still not much clarity on oil’s odd Monday trading. If you missed this one, the price of oil fell $3 in less than a minute, for no readily apparent reason.

Among the theories floating this morning: An oil producer may have been hedging, heavily. The idea of trader error, a fat finger, is out there again. So is the idea of rumor-driven bets on a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release, which the White House flatly denied on Monday. The head of the American Petroleum Institute appeared on CNBC this morning without shedding much light, either. It would be premature to speculate, he insisted

This morning’s analyst commentary is all over the map. Here’s a smattering: ...

and Oil market misbehaves (again): John Kemp

Whatever the precise trigger, the sudden plunge in Brent prices on Monday is a timely reminder that liquidity is discontinuous, even in a market as deep and heavily traded as crude oil.

Funding for medical research and science programs faces draconian cuts

Set in motion by the Budget Control Act of 2011, sequestration would impose automatic cuts on federal funding starting on January 2, 2013. According to OMB, the budget for the National Institutes of Health (NIH) would be reduced by $2.529 billion, the National Science Foundation would lose $586 million, and the Department of Energy Office of Science would be cut by $400 million. "Federal funding for research programs are not the source of our nation's debt, and cuts to these and other programs are not the solution to our fiscal problems.

Research is NOT something you turn "on and off" like a light switch

Unemployment rises in every major market since recession

Unemployment has gotten worse in every part of America since the economic downturn began. No exceptions.

On Numbers compared the jobless rates for 102 major metropolitan areas in July 2007 (five months before the official onset of the recession) and July 2012 (the latest month available). Every single one of those markets suffered an increase in unemployment over that five-year span.

The following database shows the changes in all metro areas with populations above 500,000, based on raw figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. You can re-sort the list by clicking any column header. A second click will reverse the sort. ...

FedEx cuts profit outlook as shippers take to the seas

... The world's second-largest package delivery company said its corporate customers had begun shipping personal computers, auto parts and even cut flowers by ocean rather than air to cut costs because of pressure on their products' selling prices.

"A lot of traffic is moving onto the water because moving goods by air is very energy-intensive," Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith told investors on a conference call. "You can't have jet fuel going up to close to $4 a gallon on occasion without it having a big effect on the choices people make."

... Are FedEx Clipper Ships in the future?

Explosion reported at PEMEX plant in Reynosa

Authorities are working to contain a large fire following a deadly explosion that claimed 10 lives at a plant south of the border in Reynosa.

The deadly blast happened a PEMEX plant near the Kilometer 19 marker of the Reynosa-Monterrey highway just after 11 a.m. Tuesday.

Photos: http://www.valleycentral.com/news/photos.aspx?id=802368

10 killed after blast rocks Mexican refinery near border

The Race to Reduce Energy Intensity in the GCC

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are usually framed as energy 'producers' but, as a bloc, the GCC is now an important international 'consumer'. Escalating domestic fuel consumption is causing wide-ranging problems for regional governments including rising subsidy bills, energy security concerns, export constraints and pollution. The first UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of Parties being held in the region this November also draws attention to the region’s rising emissions profile and increasing efforts to engage with international greenhouse gas mitigation agendas, previously seen as contrary to their interests as exporters of fossil fuels.

The speaker will discuss the status of energy policy initiatives in the region and the Chatham House GCC Energy Intensity Project. The roundtable will explore issues such as future prospects for target setting, price reform, and the broader politics of energy transitions in the region.

... from GCC Energy Intensity Project... The GCC countries are experiencing rapid growth in domestic energy demand with almost complete reliance on oil and gas. This is leading to a number of economic and social concerns. If current trends continue, internal hydrocarbons consumption could jeopardize the capacity of some countries to export their resources. With current levels of economic dependence on hydrocarbon revenues and high population growth, this would give rise to serious financial and social pressures. Environmental and public health threats from the emissions from thermal power generation and heavy road traffic are also increasing.

How the White House Is Keeping a Lid on Oil Prices

In what appears to be a calculated move to keep oil prices under control, the White House Tuesday reiterated its comment that “all options are on the table” when it comes to the oil market, including a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release.

Toshiba Unveils Home Battery System for Back-Up Power

Phys.org reports, "The output power of the eneGoon is 3.0kVA, which Toshiba claims is the highest output power of a home-use electricity storage system in the industry The system's key component is Toshiba's "SCiB" lithium-ion rechargeable battery which has a capacity of 6.6kWh, considered relatively high for a home battery system."

Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years

As sea ice shrinks to record lows, Prof Peter Wadhams warns a 'global disaster' is now unfolding in northern latitudes

One of the world's leading ice experts has predicted the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years.

In what he calls a "global disaster" now unfolding in northern latitudes as the sea area that freezes and melts each year shrinks to its lowest extent ever recorded, Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University calls for "urgent" consideration of new ideas to reduce global temperatures.

Climate scientists are becoming shrill. Perhaps we should be concerned?

Mass slaughter of farm animals set to push food prices up 14%report

Farmers who cannot afford feed 'liquidating' pig and cattle herds will drive food inflation to record high, says Rabobank

Rabobank said the slaughter of millions of pigs has already led to a 31% increase in the price of pork and the costs of other meats are also expected to soar as "US livestock herds are likely to be liquidated at an accelerating pace in the first half of 2013".

Nicholas Higgins, a Rabobank commodities analyst and author of the report, said: "There will be an initial glut in meat availability as people slaughter their animals to reduce their feed bills. But by next year herds will be so reduced that there won't be enough animals to meet expected demand and prices will soar."

US farmers, who are suffering from the worst drought since the 1930s, have already reduced their cattle herd to the smallest since 1973.

Wonder if it will get through peoples' thick heads that climate change has economic consequences?

Soaring Gasoline Prices only slightly dents demand

Despite post-Labor Day, end of summer driving season, retail gasoline prices at or near records across the US, gasoline demand was only down slightly from comparable year ago levels – according to MasterCard’s Spending Plus bi-weekly report.

Meanwhile the wholesale gasoline price rise in the West Coast region of the US continued to climb higher, as western gasoline suppliers still struggled to meet demand as the legacy of the Richmond CA refinery fire still echoed in the markets.

US gasoline demand falls in two weeks to September 14: MasterCard
NEW YORK | Tue Sep 18, 2012 5:59pm EDT
Over the four weeks to September 14, demand was down 0.4 percent compared with last year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/us-usa-gasoline-demand-idUSBRE...

Los Angeles CARBOB differential jumps 17 cents to 45 cents/gal on refinery issues
Houston (Platts)--18Sep2012/134 pm EDT/1734 GMT

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Oil/6636091

August 15, 2012
The Richmond Legacy: California refinery fire may adversely impact US gasoline supplies for months

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9418/911386