Re: Peak oil doomsayers ignore human ingenuity

Yes, humans have been very ingenious at converting resources to useful products and thus creating "wealth". Actually, we have been very good at harnessing fossil energy to satisfy our demands, after our inventive minds created those demands with new products which make use of that energy. But, we don't "make" energy, we only convert it from one form to another and when the easy to get energy sources are used up, that game will get real interesting.

The author doesn't want to admit that Peak Resources, including oil, is near, suggesting that the US has gobs of natural gas, enough to make the US the world's leading producer by 2035. Even were it possible for this to occur, what happens after 2035? I think it's obvious that the author's faith in the creative mental powers of mankind isn't based on his having attained an engineering (or science) education...

E. Swanson

To pick up a bit on the discussion from the last Drumbeat regarding gov't contingency plans, and to bring climate change into it... there's this article regarding the request for Brits to turn in their hosepipes to the police. Now who would have thought that in the rainy British Isles it would come to this? Then there's the Big Brother aspect:

People living in areas where the ban comes into force on Thursday are to be given the opportunity to surrender garden hoses at local police stations. Water providers have already set up phone lines so that people can report neighbours who flout the ban...

OK, This one, by Jeff Masters, on the link between rapidly declining Arctic sea ice and unusual jet stream patterns, is real...

New from IEA

What is the impact of high oil prices on the global economy?

If oil averages USD 120 per barrel in 2012, the global oil import burden – defined as total spending by net importing countries on net imports of oil – is set to reach a record high of over USD 2 trillion, or USD 5.5 billion per day, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol has said. "The current price levels are on average higher than the awful year of 2008, and as such have the capacity to tip the global economy back into recession," Dr. Birol said.

These slides assess how current crude prices are contributing to economic malaise. The next set of slides which focus on this issue will be released on Monday 9 April.

Slides: Impact of high oil prices on the economy

•The link between oil prices and the macro economy is complex
•Oil prices still matter to the global economy
•Oil prices are scaling new heights

also Global database of bus transport systems launched

Boulder Tiny House: Colo. Couple Build Simple, Sustainable 125 Square Foot Home (PHOTOS, VIDEO)

Christopher Smith and Merete Mueller spent 10 months building all 125 square feet of their dream home and documented the entire experience on their blog, on Facebook and in a short documentary about tiny homes titled, "TINY: A Story About Living Small."

High Cost of Diesel Spurs Caribbean Island’s Renewable Energy-Climate Change Plan

... Reliant on imported diesel for its electricity generation, electricity prices for Anguillans have soared recently, to $0.63 per kilowatt-hour (kWh). Growing numbers have found themselves unable to pay their monthly bills, which has prompted the Anguilla Electricity Company (ANGLEC), the island’s sole power provider to cut their power to the point where the 91-square mile island has frequently “been plunged into darkness,” according to an IPS news report.

Supreme Court: Strip searches, even for minor offenses

Siding with security needs over privacy rights, the Supreme Court ruled Monday that jailers may subject people arrested for minor offenses to invasive strip searches.

Scientists track radioactive iodine from Japan nuclear reactor meltdown

Using a new investigative methodology, Dartmouth researchers have found and tracked radioactive iodine in New Hampshire from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.

"We live on a really small planet and this demonstrates that what happens in Japan has the potential to affect us."

Postpone the Nuclear Waste Decision

The nuclear waste debate is usually focused on technology. Yet in order to better understand and discuss the problem, the issue should be viewed from a humanistic perspective where societal aspects are considered. We need a better conceptual framework, says Andrén, who addresses the issue of legitimacy in his book.

Marc Faber on CNBC this morning:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46923999

"I think that people should own some gold and I think that people should own some equities, because before the collapse will happen, with Mr. Bernanke at the Fed, they're going to print money and print and print and print," he said. "So what you can get is a bad economy with rising equity prices."

An OpEd piece in the WSJ a couple of days ago stated that 60% of the net increase in US Treasury debt last year was "funded" by the Federal Reserve.

First Study to Show That Pesticides Can Induce Morphological Changes in Vertebrate Animals

The world’s most popular weed killer, Roundup, can cause amphibians to change shape, according to research published today in Ecological Applications.

... The similar shape changes when exposed to Roundup suggest that Roundup may interfere with the hormones of tadpoles and potentially many other animals [humans?].

... hasn't autism been on the rise lately. Just sayin.

What's to blame for high gas prices?

But some U.S. senators blame oil speculators for the high prices. We heard from U.S. Senators Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat and Bernie Sanders who is an Independent. They've introduced legislation aimed at limiting energy speculation.

Whatever the bill's fate, our next guest says anything that limits oil speculation is good news. Dennis Kelleher is president and CEO of Better Markets, a non-profit organization dedicated to Wall Street reform. Just last month, he testified before Congress about this issue. Dennis Kelleher was in our Washington studio this morning. And David Hughes is a geologist, formerly with the Geological Survey of Canada and a Fellow with the Post Carbon Institute who runs his own company called Global Sustainability Research Inc. He was in Cortes Island, British Columbia.

Listen to the interview. See link above if this link didn't take you to the interview.

Basically David Hughes politely pointed out that yes speculation adds to the cost but removing speculation isn't going to remove the problem of declining supply that is driving the price rise.

US oil demand fell 4.5 pct in Jan yr/yr - EIA

U.S. oil demand fell by almost 4.5 percent in January compared with a year earlier, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday, as gasoline consumption fell to the lowest level for the month since 2001 as higher prices cut consumption.

Total oil demand was 169,000 barrels per day (bpd) more than previously estimated, but was still down by 853,000 bpd or 4.46 percent to 18.27 million bpd, the EIA said in its Petroleum Supply Monthly.

Gasoline demand fell 225,800 bpd to 8.19 million bpd, the lowest January demand level in over a decade. Gasoline demand also was down by 472,500 bpd from the previous month.

Company seeks permit to build natural gas export terminal in Louisiana

Energy Transfer Equity LP is seeking permission from federal regulators to build its proposed natural gas export terminal at Lake Charles, the Dallas-based company said today.

Construction will begin in 2014 with a target date of exporting natural gas by spring 2018 if the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approves the project, according to Energy Transfer Equity.
In August, the federal Energy Department gave the company permission to export up to 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day for 25 years.

Halt to Uzbek gas supply hits Tajikistan

The end of Uzbek natural gas supplies to neighbour Tajikistan threatens to further weaken the poorest former Soviet economy as key aluminium and cement firms grapple to adapt. Uzbekistan says needs gas to fill China-bound pipeline

Little fish are most valuable when left in the sea, researchers say

The smallest fish in the sea are more than twice as valuable when they’re eaten by bigger fish than when they’re caught by humans, according to a report released Sunday by a scientific task force.

The 120-page analysis by the Lenfest Forage Fish Task Force — a group of 13 scientists specializing in everything from fish ecology to marine mammals and seabirds — underscores the growing concern researchers have about the fate of forage fish, including anchovies, mehaden, herring and sardines that serve as food for bigger fish, sea birds and marine mammals.

and Too Many Small Fish Are Caught, Report Says

U.S. Energy Poll Shows Domestic Oil Production Support Is Rising

You might think rising gasoline prices at a time of flat demand and surging domestic oil production would convince Americans that we need to find alternatives to oil. But no. A new survey shows the public increasingly tilting toward doubling down on oil, on the apparent assumption that if the United States just produces even more, all our $2.50-a-gallon dreams will come true.

Michael T. Klare How the Big Energy Companies Plan to Turn the United States into a Third-World Petro-State

Once upon a time, the giant U.S. oil companies -- Chevron, Exxon, Mobil, and Texaco -- got their start in North America, launching an oil boom that lasted a century and made the U.S. the planet’s dominant energy producer. But most of those companies have long since turned elsewhere for new sources of oil.

Eager to escape ever-stronger environmental restrictions and dying oil fields at home, the energy giants were naturally drawn to the economically and environmentally wide-open producing areas of the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America -- the Third World -- where oil deposits were plentiful, governments compliant, and environmental regulations few or nonexistent.

Here, then, is the energy surprise of the twenty-first century: with operating conditions growing increasingly difficult in the global South, the major firms are now flocking back to North America. To exploit previously neglected reserves on this continent, however, Big Oil will have to overcome a host of regulatory and environmental obstacles. It will, in other words, have to use its version of deep-pocket persuasion to convert the United States into the functional equivalent of a Third World petro-state.

Bahraini villagers fear effects of tear gas

Many towns are blanketed nightly with the gas, raising fears of cancer and other long-term health problems.

... Abdulnabi blames the almost nightly tear gas for blinding his daughter, now almost 18 months old, and for causing a range of other health problems, including asthma. "Two weeks after her discharge from the hospital, there was so much toxic gas in this area, so much of it that she suffocated," he said. "I thought my daughter would die. She wasn't able to breathe. She choked."

Warm weather, dearth of snow leave ski resorts scrambling to keep terrain, chairlifts open
Johnny Aspen: 'The warmest summer I ever spent was this winter in Aspen'

“Killington's base lodge was destroyed by flooding from Hurricane Irene,” Schendler said. “The roads in Vermont were flooded away. Wait a minute — nobody said climate change would physically destroy ski resorts! We were worried about snow going away! In fact, the concern for the industry is deeper than that. What if, as a result of fires and floods, storms and droughts, we become a kind of survival society — where we are always responding to disaster, fixing bridges and roads, sumping the basement — and as a result we don't have the time, or the money, to go ski. Well, you could say 'boo hoo, I'm so sorry for you!' but in fact leisure, fun and other ancillary aspects of society are what make societies vibrant and successful. They are the cutting edge of creativity and thought."

UK explorers struggle to strike Falklands oil

Argentina's sabre-rattling – coinciding with 30th anniversary of invasion of islands – comes despite lack of success by UK oil exploration companies

Desire Petroleum and Borders & Southern Petroleum, two of five London-listed exploration businesses with interests in the archipelago, announced annual pre-tax losses of $42.5m (£26.5m) and $1.74m on Monday.

Those figures are typical of explorers struggling to strike oil and there are two others in a similar situation. Argos Resources and Falkland Oil and Gas are long on promise but short on producing barrels of the black stuff.

The Government's Emergency Petrol Plan is "Not Fit for Purpose", Retailers Warn

The National Emergency Plan - Fuels will be enacted by the Government if the UK is in danger of running out of petrol. Under the plan, around 700 of the UK's 8,500 forecourts will be designated as 'official' stations with instructions to prioritise sales to the emergency services.

However RMI Petrol, the trade body that represents independent petrol forecourts, has written to Energy Minister Ed Davey warning him that the Plan is inadequte and full of "flaws".

Petrol retailers argue that the Plan is so secretive that they will not know if they are a designated station until an emergency is actually called. They say that staff have not been trained, the plan has not been rehearsed, and they have not been told who to prioritise petrol to.

Petrol panic causing misery among motorists in Barnet

... “Everywhere seems to be the same – I have spoken to other garages and they’re in a similar situation. Some customers have told me they have been to five garages before finding one with fuel.”

Mr Raja added that the average spend of about £30 has rocketed to £70 as drivers stock up.

Emergency deliveries are due to arrive at the station this evening but the station manager believes that unless people stop hoarding fuel, the situation will remain the same.

Egypt: Fuel Shortage Threatens Bread Supplies

Cairo — It has been three months since a fuel shortage hit Egypt, and people's patience is wearing thin amid fears the crisis could disrupt the production of subsidized bread.

Most of Egypt's subsidized bakeries need diesel to operate, and some have had to close, for example in the Nile Delta governorate of Monofiya (Arabic).

... Some economists believe the current crisis may force the government to rethink its fuel subsidies' policy. Egypt spent the equivalent of US$83.3 billion subsidizing fuel over the past five years, according to the Petroleum Ministry.

Fertilizer use responsible for increase in nitrous oxide in atmosphere

University of California, Berkeley, chemists have found a smoking gun proving that increased fertilizer use over the past 50 years is responsible for a dramatic rise in atmospheric nitrous oxide, which is a major greenhouse gas contributing to global climate change.

Since the year 1750, nitrous oxide levels have risen 20 percent – from below 270 parts per billion (ppb) to more than 320 ppb. After carbon dioxide and methane, nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most potent greenhouse gas, trapping heat and contributing to global warming. It also destroys stratospheric ozone, which protects the planet from harmful ultraviolet rays.

The bizarre calculus of emergency room charges

... the calculus for medical charges in general is beyond comprehension, with outrageously high fees used as a starting point in a bizarre game of bargaining. Glenn Melnick, who teaches hospital finance at USC, told me it's as crazy as if he asked to buy the TV in my living room, and I gave him a price of $1 million to start the conversation.

This is the kind of insanity that exists when medicine and medical insurance are about private profit rather than public health, when 50 million people are uninsured, when Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements don't always cover true costs and when polarized politics prevent the kind of reasonable discussions that could lead to solutions.

Mass drivers

have been proposed for space disposal of nuclear waste, where a projectile launched at much above Earth's escape velocity would escape the Solar System, with atmospheric passage at such speed calculated as survivable through an elongated projectile and very substantial heatshield.

Gateway hearing cancelled after protesters greet panel
Bella Bella resident says protest was peaceful

The review panel was scheduled to hold four days of hearing in the remote community to gather local concerns about the controversial proposal to build a crude oil pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast.

A large crowd greeted the panel members when they arrived in Bella Bella, but later on Sunday afternoon, Monday's hearing was cancelled. Some high school students in the community reportedly began a 48-hour hunger strike after the panel arrived.

Heiltsuk First Nation Chief Marilynn Slett told a community meeting that the review panel had sent a notice that it would not be proceeding with the sessions because of security concerns.

"It was their perception that it wasn't a very secure or safe environment," Slett told CBC News on Monday morning.

But Slett says the protest and the community are peaceful.

"Heiltsuk is known up and down the coast as being a really friendly community, one of the friendliest communities you can come accross, so we were quite offended by that."

Judging by the video the protest looked quite peaceful.

Harper budget has $8M to restrict 'political activities' of charities

Stephen Harper's conservative government intends to spend $8 million over the next two years to restrict the political activities of Canadian charities. The move is being perceived as an attack on Canada's environmental movement, which receives a portion of its funding from American charitable organizations.

"Recently, concerns have been raised that some charities may not be respecting the rules regarding political activities," reads the Economic Action Plan 2012. "There have also been calls for greater public transparency related to the political activities of charities, including the extent to which they may be funded by foreign sources."

Those concerns, in fact, were raised most loudly by federal natural resources minister Joe Oliver, who, in his infamous open letter from last January, lashed out at the "environmental and other radical groups" that use "funding from foreign special interest groups."

The $8 million in administrative changes will fund "education and compliance activities with respect to political activities by charities."

This was an austerity budget with large cuts, so finding $8 million dollars for "education and compliance activities" is pretty telling.

It will also "improve transparency by requiring charities to provide more information on their political activities, including the extent to which these are funded by foreign sources."

A recent Maclean's analysis suggests the initiative is aimed directly at Tides Canada, a registered charity which spends some of its American funding "on political advocacy to oppose oil sands and pipeline projects. This budget announces measures to make those activities harder."

Reporter Paul Wells added: "This is not my theory. It was cheerfully explained to me by a government staffer in the budget lockup."

PetroChina to build Northern Gateway pipeline?

China's largest state-controlled oil company, PetroChina, is reportedly interested in building Enbridge's $5.5 billion Northern Gateway project.

"They have made the point to us that they are very qualified in building pipelines, and we will take that into consideration when we are looking for contractors," outgoing Enbridge president and CEO Pat Daniel told the National Post. "It’s an open bid process. They are a very big organization, they build a lot of pipelines, and they would love to be involved from what they have told me."

The Chinese firm is considering purchasing an equity interest in Northern Gateway, Daniel said, making it a part-owner in the project.

It could be years before Enbridge actually selects a pipeline builder, but, as the National Post's Claudio Cattaneo notes, "with a workforce of almost two million and cheaper labour costs than its North American counterparts, the Chinese company stands a good chance of presenting a competitive bid."

It's amazing what you can outsource these days!

The Northeast US Gasoline Supply Situation Tightens

The metaphorical transmission gears of NE refiners are not shifting easily from winter gas blends to those that meet environmental standards for summer. Logistical problems, refinery operational problems, closing Caribbean refineries and high gasoline prices worldwide have diminished NE gasoline supplies enough so that NYC area prices rose roughly about 12 cents/gallon just today (7cents on the futures plus 5cents in the NYC area).

In the downhill race between falling supplies and falling demand, it is not yet clear if the significant year over year 5.5% to 7.0% national fall in gasoline demand is yet enough to allow the US to smoothly sail through another 'summer driving season' without any supply interruptions. With Summer just around the corner, many Northeast states must soon sell a blend of gasoline with a lower vapor pressure (RVP) for which supplies may be limited. [Summer-blend gasoline has a lower Reid vapor pressure, meaning it creates less vapor than winter-blend gasoline and is less likely to contribute to smog formation in higher temperatures.] It is a more complicated refining process to produce gasoline with lower RVP. If faced with a shortage of low vapor pressure gasoline, individual States can and likely will request exemptions from the Environmental Protection Agency to use what gasoline is available - which could likely be a leftover 'winter blend'. Already discussions are underway to have the EPA issue at least a temporary waiver for a special type of gasoline normally needed in Southwest Pennsylvania during the summer.

Usually the Northeast prepares to build up supplies for the summer ‘driving season’ (unofficially starting on the Memorial Day holiday weekend at end of May) during March and April, but perhaps it won't be able to this time.

US Cash Products-Harbor gasoline rallies on supply issues
Mon Apr 2, 2012 7:58pm GMT

* Harbor CBOB gasoline up 5.00 cents a gallon

On the Gulf Coast, 9.0-Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) M2 gasoline differentials slipped by a half cent per gallon early on Monday, but later rebounded as its latest five-day lifting cycle scheduled to move on the Colonial Pipeline, ending the day up 0.50 cent per gallon at 10.50 cents under May RBOB futures on the NYMEX, traders said.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL2E8F2F6920120402?page...

The Superspike Next Time - January 2, 2012
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8796/861657

Essentially present oil production trends will lead to the closing of refiners faster than new refineries or improvements can be made, because in general refiners will not adjust fast enough to the lower quality of oil available (which require more upgrades and refinements than higher quality oil).

Platt's Oilgram News: Regulation & The Environment: just how much oil is coming out of federal waters?

How much oil and gas is produced each year from federal lands and waters?

What appears to be a simple question has proven to be anything but, especially in an election year when statistics get pulled and twisted like saltwater taffy to suit specific needs ...

... The Energy Information Administration regularly publishes reports of "production." But what they actually track are sales volumes reported by the Interior Department. Those sales represent the oil, gas, and natural gas liquids that producers sell into the marketplace and record each month on the "Report of Sales and Royalty Remittance," otherwise known as Form 2014. ...

The energy news becomes steadily more grim. There are more shortages around the world and the high prices speak for themselves.

Meanwhile, the establishment attempts to restart the waste-based economy to produce more 'wealth' for the handful of tycoons who own it. Attempts to increase waste pushes prices higher which adversely effects the ability to waste further. This is a closing cycle: the waste trend like short skirts and all the other fads is running out of steam.

Waste-for-profit has allowed great numbers to behave in an unserious manner. It will be hard to return to seriousness, but the circumstances of overshoot will not leave alternatives. The world's humans will have to make choices about human population, farming techniques and machinery use that they have been putting off since the industrial revolution began.

Resource stripping and many related dynamics are at the point where their inherent unprofitability cannot be overcome with borrowed funds. Wasting billions in resources is the waste of billions in capital. The capital is gone, industrialization is unproductive. It always has been, the cost to subsidize waste has become unbearable.

The formula is simple: cheap fuel + cheap credit = positive system returns.

This is the waste gap. A return on waste of zero with $20 fuel leaves $20 that must be borrowed. This was not a difficult task in the 'good old days' of rapidly expanding finance.

Expensive fuel + expensive credit = negative real returns. The waste gap widens. Returns are still zero but the fuel costs is now $100+ per barrel. The waste gap is unaffordably wide! The amount of funds borrowed to meet the fuel price are greater: funds must be borrowed to service/retire previous borrowings. Adding more credit pushes up the bid for fuel which adds to pressure on credit. Supply and demand emerge and the entire enterprise falls bankrupt because credit cannot be afforded.

Last month an OECD country defaulted on some of its debts for the first time world war two. Greece is a broken nation reduced to stealing funds from hospitals so that bankers can be paid ... so that other bankers will lend to Greece.

That country gone, Ireland on the skids, Spain and Italy ... none of these countries will be able to 'consume'. What is underway is conservation by other means. As the peripherals fall, the core states will also unravel or collapse. What cannot be ignored is the speed with which peak oil swept the Greek economy into the trash bin of history. Look for the next victims to fall with astounding speed, like Greece.

The default of the periphery is the default of German industry's customers. Countries cannot borrow easily, they have borrowed much already ... to subsidize more and more waste.

Enterprise Seeks Pricing Muscle for Seaway Oil Pipeline

Well the fact that the Seaway pipeline is being reversed to move oil sands production to the Gulf Coast is a useful news item, but the picture captioned Mining operations at Syncrude Canada's oil sands in Canada. is a bit of a miss, location-wise.

It's actually an open-pit coal mine somewhere in the arid American West. The reddish and beige soil formations in the background give it away as Western desert, and the presence of big lumps of coal in the foreground give it away as a coal mine. An oil sands mine would be uniformly black or dark grey because the oil is black, and there would be no lumps of coal to be seen. There would also be a lot more water around.

Meanwhile, back to the "real" world of political economics:

Greek Refiner Stops Iran Oil Buys, Banking a Problem

E. Swanson

A Summary of my Recent Thoughts Regarding Consumption to Production Ratios in Oil Exporting Countries

Saudi Arabia, and the (2005) top 33 net oil exporters overall, are showing the same type of increase in their ratios of domestic consumption to domestic production of total petroleum liquids (C/P) that led to a number of net oil exporting countries becoming net oil importing countries, e.g., Indonesia, UK and Egypt. While there are some examples of increasing C/P ratios, followed by declines, they tend to correlate to falling oil prices, e.g., Saudi Arabia in the early Eighties, or they tend to correlate to political problems causing a temporary production decline, e.g., Colombia in recent years.

The initial increases in the C/P ratios for many oil exporting countries, e.g., Indonesia, when extrapolated provided reasonably accurate estimates for when the exporting country: (1) Approached zero net oil exports and (2) For the approximate volume of post-peak Cumulative Net Exports (CNE).

Given an ongoing production decline in an oil exporting country, unless they cut their consumption at the same rate as, or at a rate faster than the rate of decline in production, the C/P ratio will increase with time, and the net export decline rate will accelerate with time. Case histories of countries that have "successfully" cut their consumption, e.g., Denmark, are not encouraging, since the small decline in consumption has not come close to offsetting the decline in production. Furthermore, Indonesia's current attempt to reduce petroleum subsidies illustrates how difficult it is for countries to cut back on subsides, even, in Indonesia's case, after they have become a net importer of petroleum liquids.

An extrapolation of the 2005 to 2011 Saudi C/P data, using the most optimistic estimate for 2011 data, suggests that Saudi Arabia would approach zero net oil exports around 2030 and that remaining Saudi post-2005 CNE are on the order of about 23 Gb, which is about one-tenth of the most commonly used number for proven Saudi reserves. As noted above, a projection of the initial three year increase in the Indonesia C/P ratio, from 1991 to 1994, accurately predicted when Indonesia would approach zero net oil exports and it accurately predicted post-1991 CNE.

Furthermore, an extrapolation of the 2005 to 2008 Saudi C/P data, an increase from 18% in 2005 to 22% in 2008, if extrapolated to 2011, would indicate a 2011 C/P value of about 27%, which is my most optimistic estimate for the 2011 Saudi C/P ratio (BP data).

An extrapolation of the Global Net Export* (GNE) 2005 to 2010 data suggests that remaining (after 2010) post-2005 global CNE are on the order of about 300 Gb.

An extrapolation of the Available Net Export** (ANE) 2005 to 2010 data suggests that remaining post-2005 CANE (Cumulative Available Net Exports) are on the order of about 106 Gb. This would be the estimated remaining (after 2010) total volume of post-2005 Cumulative Net Exports available to importers other than China & India.

Therefore, an extrapolation of the 2005 to 2010 data suggests that China & India alone would consume about two-thirds of remaining global Cumulative Net Exports of oil, leaving one-third for about 155 net oil importing countries.

*Top 33 net oil exporters in 2005, BP + Minor EIA data

**GNE less China & India's net imports

Jeffrey J. Brown

Seventh person dies after flu outbreak at Dundee nursing home

A SEVENTH person has died in an outbreak of flu at the Orchar Nursing home in Dundee.

NHS Tayside reported that a total of 28 residents are known to have been infected with the influenza A virus, including the seven who have died.

None of the infected residents are in hospital and all are being cared for at the home, with "intensive support" from GPs and primary care, the health board added.

NHS Tayside's health protection team are investigating the outbreak.

A health board spokeswoman said: "All appropriate infection control measures have been put in place in the care home and there is no increased risk to the wider public.

That seems a very high infection and death rate for a care home where most of the residents will have been vaccinated. Funeral arrangements have been halted for the moment. Flu activity in the UK is currently at a low level.

Unlikely this is swine flu because of the age range hit so probably H3N2 but which variant?

HPA Weekly National Influenza Report - week 13 (2012)

Virus characterisation

The majority of A(H3N2) viruses are antigenically similar to the A/Perth/16/2009 2011/2012 vaccine component with some A(H3N2) showing reduced reactivity with anti-serum raised against A/Perth/16/2009 in antigenic characterisation assays and a small proportion (1%) showing significant antigenic drift from the A(H3N2) vaccine strain.

Latest US CDC report says

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

Influenza A (H3N2) [561]

Four hundred thirty-one (76.8%) of the 561 viruses were characterized as A/Perth/16/2009-like, the influenza A (H3N2) component of the 2011-2012 influenza vaccine for the Northern Hemisphere.
One hundred thirty viruses (23.2%) tested showed reduced titers with antiserum produced against A/Perth/16/2009.

Fuel Crisis: You Might Think Britain Has a Problem - And You'd Be Right

... You might think Britain has a problem. And you'd be right. But it goes a long way beyond Francis Maude's potentially deadly gaffe, and the Unite tanker drivers' concern over their pay and conditions.

There's a threat that global supplies could be threatened by political instability or war; the threat of disruption caused by natural disaster and industrial catastrophe; and most of all there's the fact that oil is a finite resource and we've already passed its peak supply.

And our national life is built, to a totally unnecessary and harmful degree, around this commodity. The words of one driver in Plymouth pretty well sum it up: "Most of us are crippled without our cars."

Scientific American: U.S. Military Forges Ahead with Plans to Combat Climate Change

Climate policy may be a minefield for politicians but the Pentagon sees liabilities from global warming and is both reducing the armed forces greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate impacts

... Connecting the military's fossil-fuel and overall energy use with risks to our national security hasn't been easy in this political environment, especially with the presidential election looming. Congressional Republicans have repeatedly questioned and criticized the Armed Forces' new-energy strategies, portraying initiatives as political favors to clean-energy businesses.

... A 2010 Defense Department review identified climate change and energy security as "prominent military vulnerabilities," noting that climate change in particular is an "accelerant of instability and conflict." It was the first time the Pentagon addressed climate in a comprehensive planning document.

A subsequent assessment by the National Research Council found that even moderate climate shifts will impact Navy operations.

Israeli politicians are playing number games with a war against Iran

There are a number of ways one could understand the leaked security cabinet briefing that Channel 10 reported Monday night, which detailed expectations of a worst-case scenario of an all-out war with Iran on all fronts, resulting in a three-week bombardment and up to 300 civilian casualties.

Israel's Secret Staging Ground

In 2009, the deputy chief of mission of the U.S. embassy in Baku, Donald Lu, sent a cable to the State Department's headquarters in Foggy Bottom titled "Azerbaijan's discreet symbiosis with Israel." The memo, later released by WikiLeaks, quotes Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev as describing his country's relationship with the Jewish state as an iceberg: "nine-tenths of it is below the surface."

Why does it matter? Because Azerbaijan is strategically located on Iran's northern border and, according to several high-level sources I've spoken with inside the U.S. government, Obama administration officials now believe that the "submerged" aspect of the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance -- the security cooperation between the two countries -- is heightening the risks of an Israeli strike on Iran.

The Answer Man got it wrong: Answer Man: Airport traffic down, oil production up

Dear Answer Man, I've heard Democrats say that the U.S. is producing more oil now than it has in many years. Is this correct?

Yes. According to the CIA World Factbook, U.S. domestic oil production was 8,054,000 barrels per day in 2001, dropped to 7,800,000 barrels in 2004 and has been climbing since then. In 2009, the gusher grew to 9,056,000 barrels, and I believe estimates for this year are close to 9.6 million barrels, which would surpass the 1971 record of 9.5 million barrels per day.

Of course his mistake here is mixing apples and oranges. US C+C production 1971 was 9,463,000 bp/d and in 2009 it was 5,361,000 bp/d and 5,673,000 bp/d in 2011.

The Answer man is comparing C+C in 1971 with all liquids in 2009 and 2011. In 1971 US all liquids were 11,554 bp/d and in 2009 they were 9,141,000 bp/d and in 2011 they were 10,085,400 bp/d.

And we did not peak in 1971 but in 1970 at 9,637,000 bp/d of C+C and 11,673,000 bp/d of all liquids.

Ron P.

Why Europe's Climate Faces a Stormy Future

... A weakening of the warm North Atlantic ocean current, the Meridional Overturning Circulation, during the next century has already been predicted by climate scientists, with suggestions it could lead to colder sea temperatures and reduced warming in Britain.

But new research by scientists at the University of Reading's Walker Institute and the University of Cologne suggests that the weakening of the warm current could also partially shut down Europe's protection against violent storms blowing in from the ocean.

Full Article Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling

also Mother Nature’s Latest Attack on Japan: Strong Winds

After a winter of record snow and avalanches — not to mention last year’s record strong quake, mega-tsunami, and series of powerful typhoons — Japan is once again being battered by the elements. This time, it’s wind.

... While this storm is described as packing a “typhoon-like” punch, it’s not a typhoon. Typhoons are fueled by warm water from the tropics, known as “tropical cyclones.” The high wind hitting Japan this week is caused by differences in air temperatures, not water.

Saudi to maintain oil supply if U.S. draws stocks

Saudi Arabia is likely to maintain high oil production in the event consumer countries release emergency stocks, but it will not seek to lure buyers for more oil by discounting its crude, industry sources said.

... "Saudi production will unlikely change from the levels we see now, even if the stocks are released because the stocks will not have an impact," another source familiar with the talks said.

"Everyone knows that Aramco is a commercial operation and it will not discount oil," he added, in reference to oil sales by the Saudi state oil company.

Architects float answers to rising seas around the world

... "Climate change will require a radical shift within design practice from the solid-state view of landscape urbanism to the more dynamic, liquid-state view of waterscape urbanism," says Danai, who is involved in several projects based on this principle. "Instead of embodying permanence, solidity and longevity, liquid perception will emphasize change, adaptation."

How did Japan come to prefer wheat over rice?

The US government changed the traditional Japanese diet by flooding them with free and cheap wheat. But now, concerned with the reliance on foreign food imports, they are trying to nudge people back to rice.

I suppose the good news is that it is possible to change the way people eat. Japan went from a country where the army went on strike when forced to eat wheat instead of rice, to one where rice must be disguised as wheat to get people to eat it.

Sounds like school lunch programs can be very influential, since through them you can shape people's taste buds while they are young.

Transneft warns rail rule to hit oil exports-paper

Tougher rules for tanker railcars threaten Russia's exports of crude via the East Siberian-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) route according to pipeline monopoly Transneft, the Vedomosti newspaper reported on Tuesday.

Up to 5,000 of the 8,000 tanker cars used to carry oil from Skovorodino to the Pacific port of Kozmino could be removed from service, Vedomosti said

Russian oil output stable at 10.36 mln bpd in March

Russian oil output stood at 10.36 million barrels per day in March, unchanged from a post-Soviet monthly high in February, Energy Ministry data showed on Monday. [43.8 million tonnes]

... Russia is broadly expected to increase output by 1 percent this year from last year's average of 10.27 million barrels per day if it can control declines at old West Siberian fields and sustain output growth from new fields in more remote provinces.

Tornado risk is growing and spreading, study shows

It's not just the "Tornado Alley" any more. Tornadoes are striking in more parts of the U.S., more often, a new study shows.

Experts are enlarging the area of the U.S. they believe is regularly in the path of severe storms, tornadoes, and hail damage, according to a report from CoreLogic.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/corelogic-report-shows-tornado-and-hail...
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/tornado-hail-research-r...

also Two tornadoes reported in Dallas area

Live video showed a huge funnel cloud moving through a populated area as flashes of exploding power lines lit the sky.

Other video showed large trucks being flung through the air. "There's lots of 18-wheelers," said an NBCDFW correspondent near Arlington. "I've never seen this before."

2:08 Possible tornado is approaching the south side of the D/FW Airport near the REMOTE SOUTH PARKING area moving NE at 25 mph.

Re: Chrysler Poised to Lead U.S. Auto Sales Gains as Gas Rises

Chrysler is surely firing on all four, six, eight or ten cylinders as the case may be. For three months running, Chrysler is the number one selling brand in Canada (source: http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCABRE8320NR20120403). Chrysler's US March sales are up 34 per cent over last year and US first quarter sales are up 39 per cent (for a breakout by model, see: http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2012/04/03/031157-chrysler-group-llc-...)

Once the new Dart, née Alfa Romeo Giulietta, hits showroom floors later this month we should see a sizeable up-tick in sales, and although my tastes lean more towards the 300*, the new Dart promises to be one wickedly hot [and surprisingly fuel efficient] performer (http://www.dodge.com/en/2013/dart/).

Cheers,
Paul

* This from a man who still considers *this* to be the high water mark in automotive styling.

Former Prime Minister Kan reveals nuclear coverup — After Fukushima he’s “devoting himself to nuclear activism, he now wants to abolish nuclear power in Japan”

PRIME MINISTER KAN: For a long time in Japan, especially the last 10-20 years, there has been a suppression of statements in relation to the dangers of nuclear power.

When specialists from Universities state that certain risks could exist then they risk their future career.

Politicians often receive financial support from the energy companies.

However when one speaks out about the risks of nuclear energy then one loses this support.

On the other side of the coin, when you agree with nuclear energy, you receive generous donations.

This also applies for culture, sport and it includes the media.

Due to these ties an environment has been created in which criticisms can hardly be spoken.

This is why the Nuclear Village is not a problem limited to a small area, but encompasses the whole country. [...]

Another slam on Peak Oil by the major media, this time by the Wall Street Journal with an article linked from its front page.

For those who can't access the article, the difference in price between current and future prices on the futures market is indicated to the be the 'evidence' disproving the peak oil theory.

Frankly, it is puzzling why diminishing supplies of Brent would be valued less in the future - even if for example output increases in Iraq, Brazil, etc. - not to mention the fact that sophisticated energy traders may be able to reduce their storage costs by making complicated hedge trades based upon the futures discount.

MARKET FOCUS
April 3, 2012, 4:20 p.m. ET

Gulf in Oil Prices May Set Up Market for a Fall

Concerns about disruptions to supplies from the Middle East have helped drive up prices this year. But the gap, or spread, with the December 2018 contract, one of the most distant futures contracts available, is widening because of the prospect of improved production.

The theory of "peak oil"—that world oil production has topped and supply is steadily depleting— helped push the price of Brent crude to a record $147.50 a barrel in 2008.

But many have abandoned the theory, as new technology, such as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, opens the prospect of significant production from large shale oil basins, while more sophisticated drilling techniques allow companies to look for oil further and further offshore. Overall, output is expected rise in a number of countries over the next few years, including in Iraq, Brazil, the U.S. and Canada.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230381650457732118393030891...