I have been buying used books recently, because of the cost involved and the fact that I don't read all of every book I order. That seems to be helpful, especially with older books.

A somewhat related post to Human Population Overshoot: What Went Wrong is the post European Debt Crisis and Sustainability. The European Debt Crisis and Sustainability post gives more background about man's impact on ecological systems.

Hope you keep posting ... I appreciate your comments though I have little to say in response. One feels like a kid amongst grown-ups here. A good place to learn.

Expanding on Gail's article; that low interest rates may be helping to keep oil prices high, it has been posited that massive injections of liquidity have indeed fueled 'speculation' in oil, as there are few places to put this cheap capital. "Juicing the system" is one term being bandied about at Zero Hedge and other places. Yet another bubble?

Regarding Ron's comment, "Craig Dilworth's book Too Smart for our Own Good", a nice dialogue between Orlov and Ugo Bardi regarding the speed/form of collapse we may expect in Leanan's link, above: A Pile of Straw at the Bottom of the Cliff.

Scroll down to the comments...

Ugo Bardi said...

As further comments to your post, I have just finished reading the book "Too smart for our own good" by Craig Dilworth. I think it gives an answer to your question

"Humans are clearly smarter than yeast, what does that matter if they are incapable of acting any more intelligently?"

The gist of Dilworth's book is that we are smart, individually, but that we aren't collectively. So, we are very good at solving individual problems, but that has the cost of creating larger collective problems which, then, we can't solve.

Orlov's post adresses my concerns, more of a gut feeling at this point, that decline/collapse may be steeper than many expect; expounds on Bardi's “Seneca Cliff” post from last year, and Orlov's questions as to why his presentation at ASPO in October didn't garner more attention. Worth the read, IMO.

Thanks, Ron and Gail, for the reference to Craig Dilworth's book TOO SMART FOR OUR OWN GOOD. Like you, Ron, I ordered it immediately. This question of the human population overshoot is what ultimately interests me the most, too. It hearkens back, for me, to William Catton's OVERSHOOT. Like you. Ron, I don't always manage to read every book I buy from cover to cover, although recently I have been reading through all the books I order, because they all have to do with Peak Oil, overshoot, climate change, the impending food crisis, and all the other forms of societal crisis and collapse.

Truth is that I'm contemplating writing a book on recent theories of crisis and collapse from a Buddhist perspective. Have been practicing Zen Buddhism for almost 24 years now, and I'm afraid I know a lot more about Buddhism than I do about all the other subjects I just mentioned (despite having taught the history of science for a number of years). Nevertheless, I think that Buddhism has something to offer us in the years ahead, if only because the notions of interdependence and ecology are at the very center of Buddhist experience. Like John Michael Greer, I believe that "The Spiritual Dimension" ought not to be thrown out with the bathwater. As a "religion" (if that is really what it is)based on experience rather than faith, Buddhism may have something to tell us about why we've brought ourselves to the edge of the cliff and how we might re-arrange our priorities to make sense of our post-carbon world. That Buddhism, at least Zen Buddhism, is not a proselytizing religion may make listening to its perspective on the human condition easier.

In any case, I want, too, to speak to my fellow Buddhists--many of whom, even the ecologically active ones--have bought into dubious notions that alternative energies (wind, solar, etc.) can scale-up in time to forestall what is likely, at best, to be a very hard landing for our present culture.

Anyway, those are my thoughts about writing. I can also throw into the mix the experience I've had living in a house and barn my wife and I built with our own hands about 34 years ago on 35 acres of land in northern Vermont. Who knows whether I can manage to say anything worth reading; but here in my later years, the project keeps my neurons firing.

At the very least I will keep reading as many of the books and articles mentioned here on TOD as seem relevant. Trouble is, of course, that just as the list gets whittled down a bit, it grows longer again. At some point, I need just to speak from my own experience.

Thanks again, Gail and Ron. The two of you especially have led me to sources of insight and inspiration, and I am deeply grateful for that.

Ron,
I frequently don't respond to your posts because I find your tone often brusque, unpleasant and often rude. That's a shame because a lot of your data, points and observations are interesting and noteworthy.

Rgds
WeekendPeak

I share your frustration on the fact that TOD seems to be less interested oil production shortfall and related subjects. I keep posting on these subjects but they seem to be getting fewer and fewer responses these days. But I don't blame anyone, I think most folks just have burnout on the subject.

If you, westexas or charles Mackay post information on oil production shortfall or related subjects, I usually just absorb the information like a student taking notes. Because when a person knows less about a subject, they tend to acquiese rather than reply. I'm sure many others do the same, but it probably imho doesn't mean a trend of lowering interest. As to why TOD doesn't post articles like Gail's from above, well, who knows how management makes their decisions. It's a mystery wrapped in a riddle.

Ron,I know how it feels.I am trying to spread the message of peak oil here in Belgium by distributing articles etc,etc in parking lots,universities,parks wherever possible etc. The response is discouraging.Do I give up?NO.A few converts are enough.I always end my lecture roughly translated from Dutch "You are free not to believe me but the funeral is yours and I don't care".We peak oilers do what we have to do.I come from India where we have a word called KARMAYOGI which means "do the just deed without caring for the result3.Don't be disheartened.I don't remember but someone said "It is socially unacceptable to be ahead of your time" and this keeps me thriving.

Darwinian,

"The play was a great success, but the audience was a disaster." - Oscar Wilde

Gail, Leanan, Darwinian, in fact all of you, rest assured that at least for me you are as necessary as food and fresh water. You are great.
I don't post or comment much mostly because to me the subject of Peak Oil is no longer in doubt and I am more interested in the consequences.

In the case of my country, Spain, the consequences are really scary. Not only unemployment is at 24% (among the young 50 %) and poverty is in the increase, probably around 15 million poor (in a population of 46 million) and getting worse.
Contrary to what many people think about Europe Spain doesn't have a system of benefits or JSA Job Seekers Allowance, so when the unemployment benefit ends (it lasts a bit longer than in the USA), that's it.

The stock value of the companies has dropped 80% and more, I mean that they are worth less than 20% of what they were worth in 2008 -It is not reflected in Ibex 35, because those 35 companies mostly work abroad.

In Alicante car traffic has dropped to half of what it was two years ago. It used to be a very rich Mediterranean city, now there are demonstrations by thousands of people every day.

It is a race to the bottom, salaries around 400 euros (like in Uruguay) are now for sure.
The country suffers what I call The Death of the Ten Thousand Cuts. Many children are now in school this winter covered with blankets in class because the Administration can not pay the fuel.

Although Peak Oil and the Second Great Depression has played a part, it is the building bubble that went bust and more important, the Corruption of the Upper Class and the Cretinism of the Lower Class.
The son-in-law of the King is on trial charged with shocking, unimaginable acts of corruption and embezzlement and he is just the most visible actor in this drama, the list of politicians charged with stealing fortunes is endless.

It is ironic, peak oil has also brought on peak crime ! I mean, according to the police there are 1.500 mafia gangs in Spain. Well, they must have been living from something...
Now that the money has run out they are fighting among themselves and no longer can cover their tracks.

Keep up the good work.

PS. Just a couple of links, so you don't think I've invented what I wrote

Urdangarin carried out business as usual despite King’s orders
http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/02/26/inenglish/1330273844_986826.html

Valencia officials arrested on suspicion of stealing international aid funds
http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/02/23/inenglish/1330016813_831265.html

Ron,

Gail’s one of my go-to sources for understanding the net energy/economy link. I’m sure I’m not alone on that score. I read her website regularly. Not sure why she’s not picked-up/re-posted here.

I resonate with your idea that, “folks just have burnout on the subject…” Now, I’m reading that as a comment that it’s the recipients of our message(s) that have burned out: Tired of hearing the same old story for almost a decade.

That’s exactly where I get interested: how to communicate (and motivate) in ways that keep people engaged. I run into some of the same problems that you have mentioned here and elsewhere when I teach and write about human motivation. People seem to want to run a simplistic, uni-dimensional model of human nature when the empirical evidence is much more complex and nuanced (and if that evidence if used right, more hopeful of the outcome).

Since giving up the effort to communicate the facts isn’t an option for most of us, then other changes are called for. Maybe the melody has to change.

Is it time for a new group of people to take over peak oil education? In some ways, that’s how I read Gail’s work. She’s drawing on the solid, technical facts presented here by many competent folks (yourself included). But she’s crafting those facts in a different way than TOD experts might. Or for an audience that doesn’t suffer well our jargon, technical presentations or love of spreadsheets and graphs.

I imagine that we all have dinner with some of these folks most weeks.

Twice a week I lecture to over 180 of them. Every September and January I get to introduce peak oil and net energy to folks who (a) never heard of the concepts before and (b) are in a course that is not about energy descent (at least, they didn’t think it was when they signed up). I get three weeks (6 sessions) before the “drop/add” day lets them drop the class. Without the technical help from people like Gail, yourself and many others here (thank you all), I’d have no facts to convey.

But, frankly, communicating those facts in an engaging and behavior-changing way requires expertise from other sources. And a lot of small experiments in how to convey those facts so that they stick.

The soundest fact may fail or prevail in the style of its telling… - Ursula Le Guin

-Ray

To throw my two cents in, FWIW, and speaking for myself, there is only so much analysis one can absorb before the thought kicks in - "but what can I *do* ?"

I find myself more interested in reading about what people are doing, both on the web and in my local community.

We used to experience an effect in software consulting called "analysis paralysis" - i.e. companies trying to implement new software systems would try and analyse their business processes to the nth degree - and thus never get to the part about actually putting in the new software.

I'm not, by any means, suggesting that analysis is a bad thing - lots of people are new to the topic of Peak Oil. The analysis is an essential part of the process of folks reviewing their own situation, and making decisions about what they ought to do.

I have been reading on it for seven years. I'm at the point where I've done as much as I think I can do to adapt in place, with the funds I have available - only time will tell if that turns out to have been the right decision - and am more focused on just living my life in a reduced-energy, reduced-consumption kind of way.

Perhaps others are, also, just busy getting on with it.

"That was a great article Gail, please keep up the good work. I share your frustration on the fact that TOD seems to be less interested oil production shortfall and related subjects. I keep posting on these subjects but they seem to be getting fewer and fewer responses these days. "

Preaching to the choir syndrome. We know, and have no need to comment when we see that which follows the existing trends.

However, this does not mean we can just ignore it all now. It's like at work. I do a production report every day even when I know the answer, because if I don't get the answer I expect, something important happened. Or it was just a data entry error :-). Either way, monitoring a production process, which is what we are doing in a way, is not always exciting. In fact, it's most profitable when you are bored silly.

I keep posting on these subjects but they seem to be getting fewer and fewer responses these days.

Did you ever consider:

1) a response indicates controversy.
2) a response indicates a need for correction.
3) a response indicates disagreement.

I can not look into your soul and determine why a lack of response troubles you in such a manner. If you are seeking affirmation each time you post a 'correct' post - TOD does not seem to be the place for such. TOD does a better job of honing arguments and correction of flaws in positions (cold pricklies*) VS affirmation when one restates an obvious truth (warm fuzzies*)

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transactional_analysis

Many of us agree with what you say and have nothing more to add. Hence no response.

Ron,

I'm not a very active member, Im more of a Lurker.
However, I read most of the Drumbeats and haven't skipped any of your posts yet.
On most topics I tend to agree with your point of view.
I like your style, as well.

My experience in anything energy related isn't great, so I have not much to say in response.
Also, since visiting TOD I've been learning a lot. Much is still new to me. Recently I've learned about the Cubic Mile of Oil (CMO) to visualizes the 550 Exajules consumed every year.
There are also more practical projects I've started since visiting, like my Composting Space Heater.

But I digress, all I wanted to say is that I like reading your posts and hope you continue writing them.

Regards,
AnotherGerman

A very interesting article follows about how many doctors approach their own death, having had a front row seat, so to speak, on how many other people have done it. The docs tend not to opt for very expensive, and frequently unpleasant, techniques that slightly extend their lifespans, at the cost of quality of (remaining) life.

I wonder if there is a parallel here to how most people think of (or more accurately don't think of) Peak Oil, i.e., in both cases there is a strong sense of denial, but the docs tend to be far more realistic than their patients and in a similar sense I think that Peak Oilers are far more realistic about Peak Oil, than is the population as a whole, and Peak Oilers tend to be far more realistic about the extent to which substitute sources of energy and advances in efficiency will allow us to maintain our auto centric suburban way of life.

The common connection of course, in both cases, is a strong sense of denial about the inevitable.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020391830457724332124283396...
Why Doctors Die Differently

It's not something that we like to talk about, but doctors die, too. What's unusual about them is not how much treatment they get compared with most Americans, but how little. They know exactly what is going to happen, they know the choices, and they generally have access to any sort of medical care that they could want. But they tend to go serenely and gently. Doctors don't want to die any more than anyone else does. But they usually have talked about the limits of modern medicine with their families. They want to make sure that, when the time comes, no heroic measures are taken. During their last moments, they know, for instance, that they don't want someone breaking their ribs by performing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (which is what happens when CPR is done right).

In a 2003 article, Joseph J. Gallo and others looked at what physicians want when it comes to end-of-life decisions. In a survey of 765 doctors, they found that 64% had created an advanced directive—specifying what steps should and should not be taken to save their lives should they become incapacitated. That compares to only about 20% for the general public . . .

Why such a large gap between the decisions of doctors and patients? The case of CPR is instructive. A study by Susan Diem and others of how CPR is portrayed on TV found that it was successful in 75% of the cases and that 67% of the TV patients went home. In reality, a 2010 study of more than 95,000 cases of CPR found that only 8% of patients survived for more than one month. Of these, only about 3% could lead a mostly normal life.

To All here at TOD: I'm one of the many readers -
(though evidently one of very few women)- who don't comment, but I feel I need to add my voice and say how much I have learned here and how much I appreciate all those who make such knowledgeable comments. I too have sometimes - very carefully - started to discuss peak oil with friends - very intelligent folks, dedicated environmentalists - and get really no response - subject just gets quickly dropped. I rarely say anything any more. Once in awhile still try... Denial is more than a river in Egypt!!! Anyway - thanks to all - and Rockman - especially love your comments.

After our 'successful' intervention in Libya, the UK prime minister Cameron is openly talking of military intervention in South Sudan in order to prop up the oil supply from the country. We no longer pretend it is about 'humanitarian' intervention.

[edit]

Apparently he was talking about Somalia. I didn't know they had oil...

This story has been brewing for months

http://wildlifenews.co.uk/2011/will-somalia-be-the-next-oil-war-for-uk-f...

Are you genuinely serious, TrueKaiser? Do you actually believe that this forum skews towards the theoretical and "academic", more than the real world? If so, I am totally stunned.

I can understand why though, it's more comfortable. crunching numbers in the abstract, making theory's and counter theory's, etc.

It's a way of coping i guess for realizing what they are discussing has real world consequences.I can understand why though, it's more comfortable. crunching numbers in the abstract, making theory's and counter theory's, etc.

And this is incredibly patronising, and it is certainly unwarranted.

Many real oil-persons are on here day after day, providing more real-world experience about the oil industry than you could find in a thousand oil industry offices, or government agencies, around the world.

People like westexas, at least three times a week, tells us that on the current DATA (real world figures, note), that the availability of imported fuel for importing countries is declining very steadily, and vanishes to zero by about 2030.

And he asks (quite reasonably) - why isn't this the biggest news story every day? And the reason of course, is that business, government, the media, and academia cannot and will not deal with it ... in their world view, the articulating of the data-driven obvious peak oil reality is too awful and too disruptive of BAU.

To my simple mind, TOD is the real world, and just about everyone else is down in Anaheim. Finding a parking spot for the SUV.

TOD needs to post more Gail the Actuary

She meant special threads like this one: Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy.

Ron P.

Gail was once the main editor of TOD and could post articles at her discretion. Now she has to submit even her own articles to a vote of the TOD Powers That Be.

Mysterious changes happened which resulted in the departure of TOD co-founder "Professor Goose" (Professor Kyle Saunders) and new rules for a "kinder, gentler TOD" put in place - or that was how it was explained.

Although I do not agree with Leanan on every decision (and say so from time to time), I have to say that Leanan continues to allow a reasonable amount of free running in the Drumbeat and things aren't as bad as I feared. That said, I miss a number of participants who left or were ejected after the changes.

I always look forward to reading Gail's articles.

The process of article submission, and then long lists of "you didn't address this issue sufficiently" and "the article would be better if you re-wrote it this way" get to be wearing. In addition, staff members don't understand financial topics well, so voting gets to be pretty much random, or based on whether an article "looks academic".

I think that review process in some ways can make an article worse, rather than better. My article Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy started out as a list of wind problems, but didn't sound like a diatribe against wind. After I was asked to add more justification for many points, and explain why preconceived notions a, b, c, d, and e weren't really true, the article ended up sounding more like a diatribe against wind. What I said was true, but I hadn't planned on the article sounding as overly-strong as it did in the end.

actually that's where your wrong, you think you have a choice but you do not. scenario 1 was chosen for us when our economic system came into being. what you see in that clip is a engineered breakdown of the 'self <-> family <-> community <-> nation <-> world' order system to the family level. otherwise known as 'keeping up with the jones's'. 'i must have one of those cabbage patch dolls for my kid's even if i have to hurt someone for it because i have been convinced it's crucial for my family's well being.'

while scenario 2 in a certain extent(but not as they picture it) is possible because human nature is flexible to a certain point. That path is not available to us because of the majority of the first/western world has been taught since birth for the past century that the behavior in option 1 is normal and acceptable.

the biggest fallacy today is the idea that we still have a choice in the matter of what will happen. instead in reality we are reaping the consequences of choices either we ourselves made in the past without the knowledge we know now, or the choices made by those who lived before us. Just as we are making choices now that will effect the kids alive now or who are yet to be born 10, 15, even 20 years from now. yet i will bet you, at least those who are still alive then that at that time. that the popular discussion will be 'we still have a choice, we must act now to stop this, etc.'

So you are very optimistic? 2050 is 38 years in the future. Lots of us expect that the collapse will not be impending then--but will already have happened.

"But logistics people, unlike most of their business brethren, seem to understand resource limits and threat it poses to BAU."

Yes - I just attended an Austin meeting of Supply Chain Managers (trucking and railroads) in which Chuck Taylor (a regular attendee at ASPO meetings)gave them a talk on the implications of peak oil to their logistics future. They listened very carefully - and I could tell from the conversations afterwards that some of them were already making adjustments to their businesses assuming peak oil was a big issue to them.

Can't we have a third scenario?

Not quite, Ghung. Cognitive dissonance is precisely what distinguishes the NYT. They make nonsense out of reality that is perfectly explainable.

Take the case of the ongoing Iran coverage. I dare anybody to find a single serious reference to the NPT, which is indisputably the controlling legal frame for this matter. That treaty permits all non-weaponized signatories to pursue nuclear energy. It also requires all weaponized signatories to be constantly engaged in regional and world disarmament talks. Between the United States and Iran, then, only one nation is clearly out of compliance with the treaty. It ain't Iran.

Simple, eminently clarifying, factual story. Utterly forbidden.

Rockman
A few weeks ago, Business Week published an article (1/27/12 "Everything You Know About Peak Oil Is Wrong" by Charles Kenny) in the same brand of cornucopia.
I managed to get into an email exchange with Charles over the ensuing weekend to found out that his research was down to two hits on the web. He finally acknowledged that he just added the same reserve twice (a substantial error of 6 trillions of barrels) to his estimate of "proven reserves". But he did not back down when cornered over the confusion between what is in the ground and what could come out and at what rate.
There is a trend in the Editor offices around the major publications to go out with only the good news, whatever the quality. Is there is API slush fund somewhere we do not know about?
On the other hand, I presented a slideshow on Energy and Wealth to my folks in the Hedge Fund I work at. We went enthusiastically over the time allocated, but the overall impression is total ignorance on the subject.
We have to stop preaching the choir- I do not know and with what funds...

A lot of sewage from UK cities is treated downstream of the city, then pumped back upstream above the river freshwater intake to the water supply of the city. It is said water is drunk seven times in London before it reaches the sea...
(not actually drunk but passes through the city water pipes)

No figures but some first hand observations:-

Fung Wah- Chicken in your lap (sarc) and good chance your 'bus will catch fire or crash (the two not mutually exclusive) on one leg of a trip to NYC from Boston.

Bolt Bus- Cheap and very nasty...large window could not be closed properly providing a high pitch whistle and stream of freezing air the whole trip.

Limo-Liner...not so bad...but very spendy.

In my NYC days, trips to Maine and Family were often with the Parallel carriers to Grayhound, which was Peter Pan/ Vermont Transit. The buses often were a bit more comfortable, and for a while had movies where GH didn't.

But the GH buses were like the Yogi line, "Noone goes there any more, too crowded.." No shortage of passengers round about New England, it seemed.

"Have these other bus lines stepped up?"

Yes. I used to take the Chinatown but a lot, but got tired of them overselling the bus and never really running on time.

There are several carriers that hit all of the big northeastern cities and are only a couple of buck more than the Chinatown bus; they also have wifi; generally run on time; and send another bus if your bus breaks down (I've heard of the chinatown bus making people find their own way home at 3 in the morning, in the middle of Jersey, when the bus broke down).

From my understanding, the big reason that these carriers have begun to compete with the cheaper buses is because they only do street pickups. So they don't have the huge overhead costs that greyhound has with all of its terminals.

The costs of hardening entire grid systems, or even critical parts, will be prohibitive at a time when these systems are already stressed, physically and economically.

Not to mention in the interest of 'improvement' more networked digital controls are being added to the grid. The complexity of such systems in other nations have caused damage which could be seen from space

There is no realistic way to audit all the layers of software and hardware to make sure it is secure. And even with, in theory, the best security "money can buy" did not help the US Senate from being part of a spam botnet, the RSA, the airforce drone keylogger, or Network Solutions.

Taking part of the grid offline, spinning the generators out of sync with the rest of the grid, then attaching the out of sync load would take parts of the grid offline for a long time 'till replacement parts were obtained.

Unshielded cable. I remember a hard shift problem on my Mom's early '90s minivan. She took it to the dealer 3 times on warranty, before Dad finally bought and downloaded the service bulletins (POTS phone modem) and discovered a known problem with an unshielded signal wire from the automatic transmission which passed too close to the ignition wiring. A few pennies worth of tinfoil fixed that, and lost that dealer our business.

I am just about to go out and replace a crankshaft position sensor on a Jeep.

I have done it. I recommend using a 'grabby tool' to remove the two small bolts, once you have loosened them up with a wrench. If a CPS bolt drops into the bellhousing, the job becomes much more work ;)

http://mrflash818.livejournal.com/tag/crankshaft%20position%20sensor

Don't know if it helps but the XJ shop manuals are available on line for various models and years and are very detailed. Took a while of Google digging but I found them. Helped me track a wiring fault to a hidden in line splice.

NAOM

Los Angeles County MTA seems to have statistics saying ridership going up, year over year, for 2010 and 2011.

Systemwide Ridership Estimates
	Jan. 2012	Jan. 2011	Jan. 2010
Average Weekday Boardings	1,408,380	1,385,083	1,324,006
Average Saturday Boardings	896,997	920,177	933,905
Average Sunday and Holiday Boardings	696,002	620,044	680,994
Total Calendar Month Boardings	37,339,989	36,487,702	35,235,614

http://www.metro.net/news/ridership-statistics/

I noticed that too. I tried to dig down deeper in what exactly VMT is. So far what I found was that the VMT number Rigzone uses are for all vehicles, not just passenger cars. There is a breakout by vehicle class available but the data is quite messy.
My guess is (and that is all it is at this point) that if you look at Passenger car (whatever you use as cutoff - difficult because certain SUVs are classified as trucks)VMT his hypothesis may tie in better to the data.

Rgds
WeekendPeak

Bark beetles are killed by cold temperatures, around -20 C or lower.

In Sweden, the beatles eat spruce, even young live ones. Or we are looking at another species? They live off the inner bark of dead spruce. When we had the Gudrun storm of 2005 wich cut down 10 years worth of forestry in 4 hours we had impossible amounts of dead trees in the woods, and it was made a law to remove them in time, or face the fines. If not, the beetles grow exponentially on the dead trees, and when they have eaten everything they starve. Then, they head on for second grade food, wich is the inner bark of the living trees. Entire areas of trees can die out at once, if not dealt with in time.

We had the same effect after the great storm of 1969. By then they used a pesticde whose name emludes my memory. Turned out to be heavily toxic and became a large enviornmental issue. Totally banned by law. We have no good pesticide for this round.

They claim it is a fact that DOE say it is so. And it apears that realy is a fact. The blame in your critisism lies on EIA in this matter.

But maybe you meant to say so?

Well, yes, you could work the oil sands out of Jasper if you wanted to. I'm sure many people do it. I know a number of people living here in Canmore who work in the oil sands when they want to make a lot of money in a short period of time. However, other people work in West Africa and elsewhere.

And you wouldn't have to give up your US citizenship. The US government used to take away people's citizenship, but some years ago someone challenged them on it, and the Supreme Court agreed with him that the constitution didn't allow the government to take away someone's US citizenship just because they became a citizen of another country.

The Canadian government doesn't particularly care how many countries you are a citizen of. I know a lot of people here who have dual citizenship, and a few who have triple citizenship.

Quite the contrary if you're a driller. Anything to support the price of gas would be quite helpful for them. Luckily we are not on the E&P side of things though. Unfortunately for producers, even if we broke ground on a liquefaction plant today, it would still be years before in-service could be declared. Liquefaction plants are complex, power hungry beasts.

Depends on your point of view. As an importer somewhere else it is a great idea. As somebody who's gas prices rise because a bunch of it is sold overseas it is a bad idea. As somebody who works at the compression facility it is a good idea.

Rgds
WeekendPeak

Yeah not satisfying from a job security standpoint, but it felt satisfying seeing that I've been predicting this for a couple years based on TOD experience.

To seek employment, No. To work in Canada, Yes. To get a work visa you need a job offer in Canada. See below. Note that as an American, if you are a professional as defined under NAFTA, the Canadian employer is not required to seek a "Labor Market Opinion" and can proceed directly to the temporary job offer.

http://www.canadavisa.com/canadian-temporary-work-visa.html

It is also possible to work in Canada (temporarily) for a U.S. company under NAFTA thru a different process.

Well, they're going to be recruiting their engineers where salaries are low and unemployment rates are high. That's why the Alberta Premier is shopping for workers in Chicago and not where you are.

Calgary will need about 1,000 more Electrical and Electronics Engineers over the next 10 years. Excerpts from the 2012 Calgary Economic Development Authority Study Recruiting Electrical and Electronic Engineers

Recruiting in Canada
Canada’s three largest cities, Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, have the largest labour force of electrical and electronics engineers... Ottawa ranks fourth...

Workers in these large cities could experience a significant increase in earnings when relocating to Calgary, where wages are about 25 per cent higher.

Top Locations for Recruiting in the United States
Non-US citizens have a higher-than-average probability of making a long-distance move and they comprise 28 per cent of the labour force in San Jose, and 14 per cent in L.A...

Electronics engineers in Chicago have the lowest average salary of top recommended US cities at USD $86,658. The average base salary paid by Calgary employers was CAD $93,182 in 20099 and Denver, Houston and Dallas all have median annual salaries that are lower than average base salary in Calgary.

Top Locations for Recruiting in the United Kingdom and Ireland
Average annual income for electronics engineers in the UK was about £45,000 in 2010 (approximately CAD $72,000), which is lower than the mean annual base pay in Calgary at about CAD $93,200... electronics engineers in Ireland are paid between €32,000 and €64,000 per year (approximately CAD $44,000 to $87,000).

Higher income seems to result in lower birth rates, which you will see if you plot a chart of national income versus birth rate for the world countries. The lowest birth rates are in the richest countries, and the highest birth rates are in some of the poorest.

This has the unfortunate consequence that most of the world's children are born in poor countries to parents who can't really afford to raise them properly.

The thing is that about 8% of brain matter is composed of omega-3 fatty acids, and it requires consumption of omega-3 fatty acids to build more brain matter.

Children who have a diet deficient in omega-3 fatty acids will suffer poor brain development and neurological problems, whereas it has been shown that older adults who consume more than adequate amounts of omega-3s can build new brain matter and slow brain deterioration due to age. It's been demonstrated that older people who consume lots of omega-3s have a lower rate of dementia and other mental problems than ones who don't

You don't have to eat fish oil to get enough omega-3s in your diet, but fish oil is one of the better sources of it.

Vitamin D is also important because people in Northern climates don't get enough sunlight in winter to produce adequate amounts of it. Non-whites are particularly at risk. It has been shown that 100% of the non-whites in Canada are vitamin D deficient.

Northern Europeans are very white for a reason - under prehistoric conditions, many of the the ones who weren't white didn't get enough sunlight or vitamin D in their diet to survive the long, dark winters.

Charles, westexas,

Most backyard type aquaculture is for species not necessarily high in Omega 3's. Those that are, salmonids, require a spring water source in most cases. Recirculating systems can be made, but I don't think they ever come close to being cost effective small scale. And even with salmonids, there is controversy on the amount of Omega 3's, esp in light that alot of commercial feed is becoming increasingly grain substituted.

Although dated, Mclarney's Freshwater Aquaculture Book, 1988, and his more recent Freshwater Aquaculture, 1998, are excellent references. Both are written as handbooks for small scale NA fish culture, the earlier in my opinion just as good, not quite as pricey.

I would imagine it does since the whole fish comes from what the fish eats.

Ron P.

The fish do not actually produce any omega-3 fatty acids themselves, but they consume lots of it in their food - e.g. algae - and they store lots of it in their bodies.

However, you can achieve the same thing with chickens by feeding them flax seed and canola seed, whereupon they produce eggs high in omega-3's. That's my favorite source, after salmon and other fish.

The fish with the highest omega 3's are feeding on zooplankton for a large percentage of their lifespan diet. The zooplankton, (small invertebrates) concentrate the oils for the fish. Piscivorous fish high in Omega 3 will be consuming other smaller, oily fish feeding on the zooplankton, again concentrating the Omega 3's. One exception is the menhaden, which filters prodigious volumes of water. Ultimate source of the oils in these fish, and most zooplanton, appears to be predominately diatoms, an order of the algae. Seems it all comes back to oil on TOD.

Freshwater fish are usually lacking in high oil levels due to diet. The exceptions, especially those that are anadromous and return to sea for a portion of their life, are the salmonids. In certain high mountain lakes of western North America, landlocked, native, cutthroat trout may feed nearly exclusively on certain copepods (zooplankton). These filter feeding copepods will color the flesh of the trout red, like a marine salmon, very unusual for a freshwater trout.

To me the idea of eating fish which was fed corn/grain is weird. It is just so unnatural. When is the last time you saw a salmon cruising through a corn field? Some of the fisheries I've looked at feed the fish fish pellets. In effect they use a fine net to scoop up baby fish, grind them up and compress it into pellets to feed to their captive fish.
The whole system is so screwed up it isn't funny. But hey, did you see the oscars the other day?

Rgds
WeekendPeak

gog - So I take it you're a right-winger spreading your views here? LOL. Just a little tease. But seriously, you don't think the majority on the left would favor openning up the SPR if for no other reason than to lower profits for Big Oil? I think going after Big Oil would be a popular target with all Joe6Packs regardless of their political bent.

While we're at it I would like to remind folks who missed it last time we had an SPR release: it isn't sold cheap. In fact, the law requires it to be sold at the current crude price. I think the price is benchmarked to La. Sweet Light. So in the short term it probably wouldn't have to much effect on lowering prices. And if the release were stretched out long term? Maybe the exporters would cut their production back some to preserve their depleting reserves as well as add some price support. That's just one of several plausible scenarios IMHO.

Leanan, being a liberal does not mean you have a true understanding of how the economy works. It usually means you root for the underdog, as most of us liberals do, against the top one percent. And the oil companies are certainly among the top one percent.

Being a liberal usually means you have a very sensitive conscience, you hurt when you see suffering, whether it is human or animal. The less your opinions are shaped by your conscience the further right your political opinions are... usually anyway.

So I can understand how a liberal guy might think those rich oil companies are sticking it to the little folks. A big heart does not necessarily imply wisdom.

Edit: I just heard, on TV, Romney being described as having arrogance without empathy. It made me smile. I thought it a perfect definition for most right wingers. Though not all right wingers are so arrogant but the most of them are without empathy.

Ron P.

RSPB types are Daily Mail rather than Guardian. Liberals tend to go for the megafauana, but when it comes to birds theres a big overlap between conservation and conservative.

The NRC discussed the reason for the Japanese cover-up at the time.

MARTY VIRGILIO: Relative to the protective action guidelines type of guidance coming from Japan is, people, the other thing to keep in mind is they have hundreds of thousands of people displaced who need food, water, and shelter, and food
is food, so they might have to have different priorities than what we consider normal.

MALE PARTICIPANT: Yeah.

DAN DORMAN: I think that's a fair conclusion.

Bottom line seems to be that the Japanese (and the USA and others for that matter) are justifiably terrified of what happened and of the still current state of Fukushima, as well as the possibilities that exist at reactor/spent fuel pools worldwide - so in typical nuclear industry fashion, that's the excuse for the ongoing coverup (or as the NRC put it: "we've got to be extremely careful what we do with [the data]".

If 150 millirem per hour (1.5 milliisieverts per hour) thyroid dose was recorded by in Tokyo area then Fukushima city and areas SE towards the plant would have likely been orders of magnitude above that and these are very serious numbers indeed. Even Tokyo itself should have really been evacuated (at least temporarily) under existing guidelines but that was just impossible. Over 1 million people living in Fukushima Prefecture should be evacuated even today under pre-existing guidelines.

The Japanese continue to run the world's largest "dirty bomb" long term study on themselves.

There have been releases to the public from both Japanese and British sources where one party has declared a desire to prevent information getting out because they feared public disapproval to commercial fission power.

In the long run, U.S. oil production is going to go down. In the short-term and the intermediate-term production will tend to follow oil prices, with a time lag. For example, if you want to turn some oil resources into oil reserves, then all you need is a big increase the the expectations for the future price of oil.

My conjecture is that if oil prices rise from about $100 to about $200 a barrel, the U.S. will continue to have a slow increase in oil production, just as it has has had for the past three years. Globally, the same tendencies are likely to be observed, with higher prices causing oil production to either continue on its current (since 2005) plateau or to rise a little bit. In the long term, geology sets the limits to oil production. In the immediate future and out for maybe another ten years, economics and politics and wars and a limited number of petroleum engineers tend to account account for most of the production fluctuations.

In looking at production of oil changes over the past one hundred years, changes in oil output were determined both by changes in supply (i.e. production) and by changes in demand. This tendency will probably continue for another twenty years or thereabouts. For example, suppose there is a Global Greater Depression that goes on for tweny years; if that were to happen the price of oil might decline a lot and with declining oil prices, production of oil would tend to fall.

Production doesn't drop (and then rebound) that quickly in response to investment changes. Sept. 2005 Hurricane Katrina, Sept. 2008, Hurricane Ike. Platforms and other infrastructure shut down, then re-started.

Having read the US Energy Information Administration's analysis of the situation in the Northeast US, the only conclusion I can come to that people there are screwed.

The big hope the EIA has is that the Northeast can import enough fuel from India, of all places, to get through the next winter. You would have to read through the document to understand the reasoning behind that conclusion. Suffice it to say that the Northeast doesn't have a lot of options. The fuel transportation system doesn't work to get enough fuel there from the rest of the US.

Canada stands ready to supply as much fuel to the NE US as it can. The biggest oil refinery in Canada, the Irving Oil refinery in New Brunswick, sells most of its products in the US. However, while it is huge, it is not big enough to fill the gap because it is also supplying fuel to California, California supply issues being what they are. It is also not connected to the oil pipelines from Western Canada, so its customers will have to pay for their fuel based on OPEC prices - people in Atlantic Canada, take note, HereinHalifax especially.

I personally think the best solution for people in the NE US is wind-powered electric trains. That's just because I used to ride wind-powered electric trains to work in Calgary, the oil capital of Canada. It worked perfectly well and was cheap compared to driving. One of the advantages was that it freed up more oil to sell to the US, but unfortunately not the NE US because the pipelines don't reach that far. Although we've tried to build new pipelines, we've had problems building them lately. The environmentalists who apparently all ride bicycles everywhere have blocked them.

Some people have asked, "Why don't Albertans keep their own oil for their own use?" Well, the reason was that they knew where things were going well in advance of most people, and realized they could make more money by selling their very expensive oil to the US for top dollar, and riding the much cheaper wind-powered electric trains themselves.

Don't think I'd trust him on anything related to hair. Stick with bankruptcy.

The tragedy is that half of American voters are dumb enough to believe it.

"Iran could be sitting on a quadrillion barrels of light crude 500 feet down, but if there is no way to bring it to market, it doesn't matter."

Nobody is sitting on a quadrillion barrels 500 feet down. That's what matters.

"WE AGREE"

whadda slogan

Yes, three people. One to answer the phone, another to open the mail, and a third to manage the other two. I was thinking the same thing, "That's not much of an oil shale research project". Like you, I get the impression that it was more of a PR exercise than an actual attempt to do something useful.

The other possibility is that those three full-time Chevron people are the project managers but all the work is being done by contractors. I was in a different industry, but I do recall multiple projects that were funded and directed by the company where I worked, with two or three company employees directing the work of 100-500 people at outside firms.

Wikipedia has a description of the proposed technology here. Looking at the picture, I suspect that you (for example) would be perfectly capable of managing outside firms to do all of the field work for such an experiment. And at some point, going to senior management and saying, "It ain't working."

The judge is right. There is no legal case or controversy at issue right now or in the immediate future. The plaintiffs are trying to use the courts to preclude classes of lawsuits that might happen at some indeterminate point in the future. US courts can't do that; that's the job of Congress.

(Congress ought to preclude the suits and put non-GMO farmers' minds at ease.)

I believe the legal term is "estoppel", and there is now a court record of their claim for not sueing for inadvertent use that can be cited later if they do try to make such a claim.

DNA processing is getting cheaper and cheaper.

In theory one could plant some Monsanto IP free seeds and sample each plant to see if it is in violation. Take the non-violating resulting seeds and propagate them.

Eventually move them from the greenhouse to the outside and check for contamination. When contaminated, demand Monsanto remove the contamination and return the still functional plants. Backup position - they pay for the installation and upkeep of 40 acres of greenhouses or perhaps acceptable a ban on GMO crops within X distance - where X is the wind blown pollen distance. And they pay 100% DNA testing in perpetuity to make sure THEIR IP is kept off of your property.

Extra points if you play the game of IPing the seeds you are using.

Good point Ron - I missed that.

Interesting that when Stoneleigh came to our town for a talk about 3-4 years ago that was one of her key points - that the dollar would continue to strengthen and foreign money would continue to flow into US Treasuries for the next few years. Several audiences members thought that was preposterous.