You've got a great set-up, Ghung. Although I'm fully dependent upon the grid and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future, I'm conscious of how I use energy and try to "flatten the curve" as best I can by scheduling loads so that they don't overlap and by shifting as much of my demand off-peak as possible, even though there's no financial incentive for me to do so (I'm not on a TOU meter and I don't pay for demand). With a 70-litre, 1.38 kW electric water heater, you have to allow sufficient time for the tank to recharge before your next major use, so you'll want to avoid back-to-back showers or showering when doing laundry. Now some folks might consider that a nuisance or imposition, but I don't. And if the kettle is on, then the toaster remains off, or vice-versa. Again, I don't have to do this... just a quirky little habit I picked up years ago.

In any event, thermal storage be it for space heating or domestic hot water is a great way to soak-up excess wind energy, especially as we add more wind to the mix. Ninety per cent of all homes in New Brunswick are fitted with electric water heaters, most of which are leased through the provincial utility. When it comes time for NB Power to replace these tanks at their end-of-life, switch them out for a larger capacity model if need be, add an anti-scald mixing device and some rudimentary load-control and, presto, you're in business. The incremental cost would be presumably modest, but the benefits in terms of increased grid stability could prove significant.

Cheers,
Paul

Ghung -

Sounds like you have described your home system in detail previously? I'm very interested, especially in how it might compare to, say, that neighborhood district heating system in Alberta. Could you please indulge me with a link to a relevant prior post?

You are believable as an expert on topic X as people choose to believe.

If there are certifications and memberships in "National Assoications" - having them helps.

(Your other move is to CREATE the "National Association of Energy Use Dudes" or whatever you will call the body that 'creates standards' or offers 'certification')

Yeah, H, there's a lot of diffuse knowledge here that could be compiled into a 'solutions' blog page. TAE is attempting something like this; their "Lifeboat" section. I haven't figured out how to contribute, and such a section would need to be well edited to avoid noise. Greer has the Green Wizards Forum as well, though the link seems to be broken.

I've considered starting a blog about my experiences, successes and failures, but there are so many "voices in the wilderness" these days it may be pointless.

Hi H,

With your friends working in the field and with the contacts that you've developed over the years, you have a perfect opportunity to test the waters. First of all, never underestimate the importance of the non-technical. It may seem obvious or even trivial, but as with any business, courtesy, respect, sincerity and a genuine passion for what you do goes a long way. Ditto good communication skills and the ability to understand what's most important to your client. Much of that comes from being an aggressive listener and engaging the client on their terms; in other words, knowing your audience and speaking their language. So, for example, if you're discussing a lighting upgrade at a manufacturing plant with a room full of account types, you'll probably want to talk about such things as internal rate of return, net present value and various other financial metrics, along with increased productivity, greater employee satisfaction, improved worker safety, fewer product defects and so on. Conversely, if it's a retail store, you'll probably emphasize expected improvements in light quality and visual impact, and how this will translate into increased floor traffic and added sales. The technical stuff which, quite frankly, anyone can quickly and easily master, is perhaps one-tenth of the equation. Also bear in mind that each of your buddies brings their own strengths and skill sets to the table. The "trick" is to recognize what they are and to structure things so that everyone is given the opportunity to shine at whatever it is they do best; you don't have to each know everything about the business because you work as a team and your individual contributions snap together like pieces of a puzzle.

I'd give your friends a call and tell them that you might be interested in working in this field yourself. You might also ask if you could spend some of your vacation time working with them to get better acquainted with the business. They know, trust and respect you, so I'm sure they'd be thrilled to show you the ropes. Again, it's the perfect opportunity for you to dip in your toes without any risk or long-term commitment, and at the end of those one or two weeks you'll have a pretty good sense of whether it's a good fit for you and if the chemistry is right. Be assured that if you do decide to change career paths, you'll land squarely on your feet and excel at whatever you ultimately choose to do.

Cheers,
Paul

The person in question is someone I met on-line and our initial introduction evolved around a discussion of ductless heat pumps (he has a Fujitsu 15RLS). I'll ask him if there's anything that's publicly available and get back to you on this.

It has been a windy day in these parts as well, with gusts topping 70 to 90 kph. If these high winds continue into the early morning hours and if temperatures remain relatively mild, NSP could break its previous wind record.

Update: Well, winds remained relatively strong during the overnight hours and temperatures held fairly steady (e.g., a low of -1°C at Stanfield International Airport) so it's quite possible that we did surpass our previous record. For one, we have more wind capacity on-line today than we did last April when the previous record was set; at that time, wind supplied 250 MW of the 1,220 MW of provincial demand or just slightly more than 20 per cent. However, demand year-over-year is down considerably which makes things that much easier. In January, 2011, peak demand was 2,176 MW and this year it came in 1,855 MW; average demand: 1,663 and 1,441 MW respectively; and minimum demand: 1,168 versus 864 MW. All things considered, I wouldn't be surprised if wind's share exceeded 25 per cent.

Cheers,
Paul

No question, the CBC article got it badly mangled or Mr. Murphy didn't express himself all that well. The electricity, as you know, isn't returned to the grid; it either offsets what is consumed at other times of the day or, for the most part, it displaces fuel oil.

It would seem that the majority of comments attached to most any news story are overwhelmingly negative due to what I assume is ignorance or malice (you could have the second coming of Christ and the response would be "What in hell took you so long?"). From what I'm told, participants in the programme are extremely pleased with the performance of their ETS systems. Depending upon the efficiency of their current oil heating system, the savings vary anywhere from 35 to 50 per cent. In addition, the discounted wind rate is locked in for a full five years. Just in the past few weeks, fuel oil prices on the Island have increased seven per cent and the long-term outlook for oil, as you can appreciate, is uncertain at best.

For a province that is so overwhelming dependent upon fuel oil and that is so incredibly rich in wind resources (see: http://www.gov.pe.ca/envengfor/windatlas/pdf/PEIWindMap_80m.pdf), it's a smart way to go and we should be pursing this with the utmost vigour.

Cheers,
Paul

There seems to be an obsession over storing electricity. How many water heaters heat the water and store it in the first place? Storage heaters have been around for years. Stoves could be heated and well insulated, everwarm, and have lift up lids for the pots like Agas. Phase change material in fridges and freezers. It is the storing of energy not electricity that counts for this. Decent standards for insulation are the key. On the other hand there are many who are paid not to believe and to salt the fields with doubt.

NAOM

Your memory is, in fact, correct.

Maine heating oil use dropped 45 percent between 2004 and 2009

PORTLAND, Maine — While Maine is the country’s most heavily dependent state on home heating oil, it led other New England states in reducing reliance on this energy source over a recent five-year period, federal figures show.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says Mainers slashed their heating oil use by 45 percent between 2004 and 2009. Maine was followed by New Hampshire, which cut its heating oil use by 39 percent; Connecticut by 29 percent; Massachusetts 28 percent; Vermont 27 percent and Rhode Island 25 percent.

See: http://bangordailynews.com/2011/11/13/business/maine-heating-oil-use-dro...

Depending upon the age and general condition of these buildings and that of their heating systems, a 50 per cent reduction seems plausible. Of course, much of this depends upon the cooperation of the occupants. One of our clients spent several thousands of dollars installing a control system that temporarily disabled the overhead heaters in their service bays whenever one or more of the roll-up doors were left open and within a week the guys had literally ripped the sensors out with their bare hands rendering the entire thing useless. We just completed a major lighting retrofit at this complex and I could spend hours recounting the horror stories. We incurred almost $30,000.00 in additional costs due to their obstructionist and childish behaviour; fortunately for us, the client understood what we were up against and reimbursed us in full. Suffice to say, if I never step foot in that God-forsaken place again, I'll die a happy man.

Cheers,
Paul

Erick - yours are all individualist, back to the frontier points that are completely logical. However these discussions never go beyond this circle the wagons approach. Preparations should include also what-we-should-we-be-doing in community and especially business development as adaptation to the new paradigm that is our current transition.

A factorial grandmother of mine in 1630'3 was massacred in what is now Bronx, NY along with her entire family except for one child, because the local government, New Amsterdam, had agitated the local tribes. She had recently relocated from Boston/Rhode Island because of persecution for her religious beliefs, but in that place the people were friendly with the natives. Her fatal mistake was assuming negotiation possible. We need to prepare our communities for humane behavior in adaptation to declining use of fossil fieles.

We do not need to step back to pioneer days in imagining our transition. My wife's relatives in Illinois during the mid 19th century traditionally had oysters for christmas via the railroad. When we moved to our current home in 1967 in Western Washington farms were producing milk in cans, cheese, small farmers were selling chickens and other meats to local markets and to individuals. Today these small business ventures are all gone leaving in some cases, remnants of abandoned buildings, replaced by factory berry farms and dairy operations with 2000 cows on 80 acres, industrial scale waste treatment and feed/product movement in interstate commerce.

I think these lists and discussions should include recognition for elements of transition that are happening now, the local food movement, recycling in home construction and adapting to conditions of the present day as transition to a future we may recognize as similar to elements of 1920'3 30's.

Leanan, that article of Greer's had a big impact on me too, it got me thinking about all the vital skills and knowledge that that still exist in the memories of older people but that are dying with them at an increasing rate. To try and facilitate an urgent and vital intergenerational transfer of skills and knowledge and try to act as a conduit to future generations, we have joined local societies, of mainly senior citizens, that foster small scale bee-keeping and blacksmithing and equipped ourselves (at moderate expense) with all the many low tech tools of these trades. We have also built a wood fired brick bread oven and acquired a little old flour mill and are learning (largely by trial and error) the art of making sour dough bread starting with bag of wheat. Beer making is fun too. These are skills that we hope to learn enough about and, if we should live long enough, be able to teach to our grandchildren, They are pretty young just now but already take part in some this because have 3 generations living together.

We are able to concentrate on these things now because we have been lucky, we are baby boomers with all the advantages that our generation was given, I only have to spend 20 hours a week in paid work and we have already done the hard yards of getting a small farm with food production, off grid power and water all sorted out first.

My own professional skills as a medico specialising in high tech anaesthesia/intensive care have a limited future. I estimate the half-life of my work skills to be some where between 5 & 10 years, say 7.5 years into the age of energy descent. By then the globalised high tech base will have eroded to the point where most of my recently acquired knowledge will be irrelevant. But perhaps the stuff I learned 30 years ago, in simpler times, that can still put to work will be coming into its own again. In 15 years most of that will be becoming irrelevant too, so the last thing we hope to be able to bequeath to our community is a big specialised garden of medicinal plants and the knowledge of how to use them.

I would urge everyone to take Greer's advice 'Learn one thing, give up one thing, save one thing.

The ELP plan has been one of my favorites - really gets to the heart of both where we're at and where we need to go.

My first suggestion was, if they want to get most of the congregation on the same page, they need to define the page in a way that isn't contentious or too threatening. These are pretty conservative folks. "Making our Church Body Recession Proof" seemed like something dooable, especially considering the depth and severity of the recession in our area. Making the case that recessions will become more frequent and severe is likely easier than "industrial civilization is going to collapse and things are going to be really bad".

Some of my suggestions:

1. Ongoing "lite" education on economic cycles, inflation, energy costs, and eventually resource depletion.

2. Get a tally and evaluation of the property held by church members for the purpose of getting as much as possible into agriculture of some kind, return fallow land to ag production, and identify best practices. Bring in experts on sustainable methods that won't require (lock producers into) increasingly expensive inputs.

3. Get as much of the members' property as possible into an agricultural tax status, reducing property taxes and financial vulnerabilities on the body. This frees up money for other purposes in good times; helps folks keep their property unencumbered through tough times. Find ways, including legal advice, to keep properties intact when parents die. Once these properties are sold and subdivided, they're generally gone forever as useful assets to the community. In some cases, the church could lease tracts and let other members farm it.

4. Work as a group to grow local markets for produce, donate extra stuff to the food pantries. My daughter's pastor opened a vegetable stand that has become very popular, featuring some produce from his church members. Expand on this concept.

5. Form a coop to buy materials in bulk, perhaps with other churches, or negotiate prices with local vendors.

6. Form an efficiency group to evaluate folks' homes and improve insulation, etc. Help folks with high energy bills reduce costs, perhaps get some back on wood-supplemented heat (most grew up with wood energy around here), as firewood is abundant in the area. Tithe a percent of saving gains into a fund to help others improve their energy situation.

7. Study other systems of lower-impact lifestyles and present such as a virtue; encourage the adoption of "plain" ways, similar to the Amish, Quaker or Mennonite groups. Promote humility, discourage hubris and pride in consumptive ways, eg: buying a big, bad truck to boost one's ego.

8. Create a knowledge base, a library, and encourage older folks to pass on their expertise to new generations. Food preservation, local medicinal remedies, repairing things, fence building.....much more to be preserved around here. Mentoring and passing on skills and trades should be promoted. This is especially good for the elderly.

There's plenty more, and many of these things are being done on some level. Leanan mentioned a few, such as recycling childrens' clothing, etc. I have more to add, but a beautiful day and garden are calling.....

Long slow decline is best for individuals and groups. Itvwill get tough, but be doable. long term, you need an ax, access to farmland, access to water or cachement with huge storage capacity. Seeds ,knowledge, and tools. Books on doing things pre-industrial society, equipment to put it into use, things like candle making supplies or basketry tools. Iron smithing, etc. hunting and fishing equipment, buckets and rope, etc.

The scary one is a rapid collapse. This may not happen, I hope not. It'll be scary as heck if it does. There will be at least.two hundred million americans unprepared for what would happen. Bandritry and pimping will be about the only means of trade for that two thirds of america. But how even a rapid collapse happens could vary. There could be quiet in the country, with a semblance of civility, or marshal law, or un troops, or a mad max scenario with wingnut warloards holding and fighting for small plots of land. It's hard to know what to do when you don't know what will happen. But you still need ammo. food stores are worth having, but may or may not be needed. Many may have to flee for any number of reasons. You will have to be able to go mobile and stay hidden in this scenario. This means no or rare open fires. That means small wood gasifying stoves or alcohol penny stoves to cook when neccesary. Wild food books. Silent hunting and fishing skills, ie, save ammo for pimps. You want light weight good quality clothing and rain gear, but you don't want to look like a north face catalog either as you would be robbed. Lightest possible gear, heavy duty but not ritzy looking packs, water purification and transport ability, good, worn in boots. Hmmm. It's time for sleep, tomorrow?

After some sleep, I decided not to flood this thread with survival info, but I have a few more things to add. If you want more from me, email me at my user name @gmail.

The main thing is to think what life could be like, what your needs will be, and what others will want to trade for. Most people can figure it out if they can stay where they are. Food, water, wood, clothes, and security. If they or others become internally displaced refugees, whether hunted by government or not, it becomes complicated quickly, with many, many variables. But here are a few things I consider key.
Transport: Car travel may not be possible due to gov, bandits, or lack of gas. Next best option is bikes. Cheapest decent bikes that will work when needed are $400. Don't buy at walmart or other box stores, they will fail you. Hard tail mtn. bikes from rei or bike stores are best. Get bike trailers. For not as strong, regular 60#-100# capacity trailers from burley will work well. For in shape men, they should get large 300# trailers from surley or bikes at work. Someone in group needs to know bike maitenence and repair. All tools, oil, extra tubes, wheels, parts, should come too. Trailers can be made by welder. For elderly, their is design online for the chariot, that can carry adult. :: If bikes not available or feasable, transport is by backpack and boots. The inexperienced will be shocked by how hard it is to carry heavy backpack long distance. Gear should be light as possible. Down sleeping bags are rated by survival temperature, not comfy temp. Thermarest zrest closed cell foam pad is $40 and awesome. I recommend as many silnylon or cuban fiber tarps as you can carry. What you don't need will be valuable trade. They are small and light compared to regular tarps. Water purification tablets and water bags. For flashlights, you want 1watt red led to avoid detection. Solar charger for batteries. Get headlamp, you need your hands free. Good knife, and one machette from cold steel for group. Bic lighters and some tinder, only use tinder when you have to. No cotton clothes. Wool or synthetic.
Some ideas for trades: Food, stored, gathered, or hunted. Have local edible food guide book. Tarps. Baskets. Cigarettes. But one of the most valuable things you can have/do is this: get thumb tacks and couple pairs of scissors, and aa powered drill eith associated solar charger. Then go to jureystudio .com. Learn how to make alcohol penny stoves and wood gasifying stoves. You can use found trash to make them, they are efficient, but most importantly stealthy.. If you think you are going to cook over open fire in refugee collapse situation, you are nuts. Fires can be seen from far away, these make no or little visible light or smoke. They will be a life saver for many. Be armed, go light, and think simple but effective. Email me for mire info, peace, r

Looks like someone has taken the bait.

Bad Data Guided U.S. Fukushima Call

... U.S. nuclear officials struggling to get a handle on the severity of the crisis unfolding more than 7,000 miles away, complaining of a lack of information from the Japanese side and in some cases turning to their own sources to assess radiation risks.

The U.S. got a key part right: The top U.S. nuclear regulator correctly projected, months before Japan acknowledged it, that all three operating reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant might be suffering from meltdowns, in which fuel melts in the reactor cores.

... The No. 4 reactor suffered an explosion March 15. "The explosion leveled the walls, leveled the structure for the Unit 4 spent-fuel pool all the way down to the approximate level of the bottom of the fuels. So, there's no water in there whatsoever," John Monninger, an NRC official in Japan, told others at the agency, who relayed the information to Mr. Jaczko.

July 6, 2011, 9:58 AM3349
Algae holds great promise as a source of biofuel: it’s rich in oil like corn, but it can be cultivated without competing for land with food crops, and researchers are developing energy-efficient ways to process it.

Recent tests have demonstrated that algae is a viable fuel for long-distance flights, and for use in naval helicopters. But questions still loom over the private sector’s ability to produce sufficient quantities for widespread, routine use.

Last month, Honeywell showed off its green jet fuel’s performance by transporting a plane-load of journalists on the first-ever biofueled Transatlantic flight on a Gulfstream jet powered by its 50-50 petrol-algae mix. And the U.S. Navy conducted its own successful demonstration with its first test of a military aircraft using a similar fuel blend.
http://idealab.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/07/algae-biofuels-hold-great-p...

Disagree
Life is short and fragile
(Which as a health provider, you already know)

Marry your soul mate. Have 1-2 kids. Enjoy what little there is to enjoy in this short miserable existence.
Take many photographs. Cherish them.
It all slips past very fast.

I think you cover a lot of what I would say..

I would just want to emphasize the idea Dr. A, that you have to respect and see the credibility in your own views.. and while I agree with Catalyzt that it might go noplace but bad to 'get into it' and debate the difference between your take and hers, it is still important to know that you can name these views, or at least your own, in open conversation with her. How to phrase it is still important.. I wouldn't be sanquine about dumping a whole load of doom into a conversation and inviting a fight.. but to be able to say calmly and clearly..

"I think we're in a very tough spot, we're vulnerable in a lot of ways, and I don't think people appreciate how thin the ice has gotten.. it is very Fragile. Look at Ireland and Greece."

(If she's onboard with CC, but not PO, then there are ways to get to one through the other, and then show how both predicaments not only mirror, but amplify each other.. but as always, DON'T OVERWHELM.. just say this is stuff that concerns you, and you feel it needs a lot more of us paying attention to it.. and let it simmer..)

Frankly, my wife gets that this is where my focus is, while she's chewing over toxics in the food and water, in corrosive advertising and cultural messages, the climate, the state of our forests etc. I don't need to whomp her over the head with this one, just enough to let her know that I see my role in this team as the one who is taking on energy. It sort of complements the fact that I'm the one who usually keeps the furnace going, fixes the electrical, lights the campfire, grills the meats and pancakes, etc..

We just spent a night up in the snowy woods with our daughter, in a tiny uninsulated cabin.. no oil, no grid, no advertising.. fresh snow. (Yes, we drove up there) ..

Respect her views, respect your own views. Don't create more battles than absolutely necessary. Joke about the difference if you can.

you are probably not much different than the rest of "them"

Let me give you a quick, real life example:

Someone I know believes in "Alien" conspiracies and the Government preparing FEMA death camps in Area 51

Needless to say, this does not jive well with my acceptable world views.

So I flat out (99%) reject the idea. Label the person a kook.

It's the same for them; your Sig Other & friends.
They have what they consider to be acceptable world views. PO doesn't jive with theirs.

Just women? Seems like men who want kids would also have incentive to deny the "peak everything" scenario. And more women than men accept the scientific consensus on climate change. (Probably because women are more likely to be Democrats.)

At least your former friend is consistent. Unlike those "stop climate change so my five children can go snowboarding" types.

in my Environmental Politics class I was explaining [to the students] the concept of Peak Oil

It's amazing by itself that the school allows you the freedom even to mention this blasphemous topic (PO).

The way I personally picture it --when I turn on the 1984 Mindbender Tube (TV) and observe the talking heads doing their punditry thing (politicians, economists, journalists, "fair & balanced" posers pretending to be journalists)-- is that they are all blind believers in the Free Market/Invisible Hand religion. They merely don't wear the pointy hats or caped crusader costumes worn by the priests of the more traditional religions. (Although business suit and strangling rope around the neck is not too far off.)

If you start mentioning anything that brings into question their religious-like beliefs about perpetual growth and ever-lasting progress, they simply go ape-sh*t. You have just deeply offended their deity. You have just brought the match a wee bit too close to their version of the Koran.

"Politics", "economics", "jobs", "money", etc., they are all part of the same basic thing, namely, a mechanism for deciding who is "deserving" to partake in the dwindling resources of humanity and who is not. We all have to play. What other choice do we really have?

But good for you. At least you're sending your students into the fray with eyes-wide-open.

I don't know where to jump in and offer a different view but I think this is as good of a place as any. In my memory PO was brought up in a high school environmental science class in the late 1980's it said we wouldn't have enough oil by now. It seems that Peak Oil was adopted by left leaning people because it helped their agenda, but when the effects Peak Oil didn't happen fast enough they weren't very happy. Peak Oil belief, politcal view points and environmentalism are not one in the same, it's not a monolithic group.

There are free market people that say Peak Oil is coming and the market will dictate the outcome just as it always has. Our culture and society will make the adjustment if forced to. Population may drop, technology may increase efficiency, for certain groups technology may decrease and they will be on horseback or something but having our government stand in the way of the inevitable is not the answer. We don't need more wars for the free flow of oil from the middle east and we don't need to subsidize future companies.

What I'm saying is that maybe you can't teach another point of view to the science and math behind peak oil, but you can teach another outcome of peak oil. I don't normally see things through rose colored glasses, but the pain of peak oil may be what pushes us to something else. Our government attempts to numb us to that pain but pain is a large part of the healing process.

I don't equate my happiness to how much fossil fuels I've burned each day and maybe that's the other side of the discussion, maybe we can deal with this very well, but we have to be allowed to know it's there.

All too true.

And thanks especially for illuminating "Deteriorata". I'd forgotten its perfection.

DD and others on this post.

Whatever happens, you two being an RN and Physician for occupations is coming from such a place of contribution to any society that if you two can't have kids then we are all f...ed. People like you should be the ones having kids. They will be fed, clothed, educated....hopefully loved. Unfortunately, so many folks that have children have no business doing so, and I know this because I work in the public K-12 system and live in a poor valley experiencing decline. Now, I will shut up because it doesn't take much for me to sound like a Eugenics perpetrator. I just believe that people should be prepared to look after their children properly and love them with every fibre of their being. Alas, many of my parents cannot/do not seem to do it very well.

We don't know what the future may bring, but what harm is there in preparing like Ghung, Klee, and others (myself, included)? It's all good. And if things go south faster than the slow-mo decline, my kids and 1 grandchild (I hope for a few more) will have a place to retreat which we have been building for the last 6 years. And if nothing changes, they have a great place to come for holidays. It's a good place to be.

Now off to the woodpile!! Coffee is over.

As an aside, our power was out for most of yesterday with big winds, falling trees, minus temp. The new 'Bakers Choice' cookstove works awesome. Bacon and our 'farm eggs' for breakfast, toasted home made bread, a great supper, cosy candles and led as extra lighting for food prep, lots of hot water in the bronze tank, battery powered sat radio alternating between bluegrass, classical, and occasional rock. It was excitingly good fun. (Sorry, but it was and always is fun for us). When the lights came on at 9:00 pm it was inspiring because the interludes of power interruptions allow one to discover how great it is to have secure power provided in our society. Most don't even think about electricity. It is the defining gift of our civilization, imho. That, the library system, and TOD.....of course.

Cheers....Paulo

Well, racing engines need rebuilds mainly because they are racing - I don't think that's really applicable to normal engines.

years ago, Ford did a whole bunch of work on methanol engines and in the 90's had methanol flex fuel vehicles on sale in California - corrosion/wear was never a problem.

It would only take a slight tweak -$100/vehcile - to make the flex fuel vehicles methanol compatible (china is now doing this).

At the low concentrations - 3% - it is not an issue in any car, nor for the infrastructure.

Since we are already setting up an alternate infrastructure for E85, we might as well make that suitable for M as well.

Also, dedicated fleet operators could easily set up for co or complete fueling of methanol.

I'm not saying we can switch to a methanol-only fuel economy, but we can certainly make and use a fair bit of it without much trouble.
Unlike exporting LNG, converting it to methanol will back out oil imports, instead of increasing them.

Of course, it is not your (or my) $ on the line, but, unlike Fischer-Tropsch the investment is not nearly as expensive, and the equipment is widely used today.

With methanol, the yield is about 70%, so to make one gal (56,000btu) you need 80,000. At current prices, that is 20c for a gallon of MeOH. If we are selling this as fuel, we can assume the equivalent to gasoline price, with a discount of say, 5% for not being gasoline. So, at half the btu of gasoline, and the current RBOB price of $3.15, we have $1.57 less 5% = $1.50

So from 20c to $1.50, that is one very healthy "crack spread"

If NG prices go up to $10, then it is 80c, and at the recent lows for gasoline at $2.40, you are at $1.15 for MeOh, still a pretty good crack spread.

Also, if someone sets up an MeOh plant (an Methanex is doing just this - relocating a plant to La from Chile), they can always sell methanol into the industrial chemical market, and back out imports. That means they have to purify it, but at least they are not solely at the mercy of the fuel market.

As long as oil is over $100 and gas is under $10, I'd say this is worth their while, and the fact that Methanex is doing it backs that up.

Now we just have to see how long it is before it is sold as fuel, and before someone else sets up another plant.

Methanex has already pulled the trigger;

Methanex to restart one plant, relocate another

Methanex Corp. (TSX:MX) has announced it plans to restart a mothballed methanol plant at its Motunui site in New Zealand. That plant is expected to start production in mid-2012.

Methanex has also announced plans to move one of its idle methanol plants in Chile to Geismar, Louisiana. The plant is expected to be operating in 2014’s second half.

Methanex is the world'd largest methanol producer, so we can assume they know what they are doing.

I found some information on the cost of building a plant - from this white paper (page 34),
they estimate costs for a 1 million ton per year {biomass} methanol plant at $650m
That is a 330m gal/yr palnt, or 160m gal gasoline equivalent.
In terms of barrels/day, it comes out to a 10 kbd plant, for the $650m, or $65k per bpd of gasoline equivalent.

If you need a 10% ROI on that, it needs to make a profit of $65m/yr - or 40c per GGE (gasoline gal equivalent), or 20c per methanol gallon.

Using my prices up thread, gasoline is currently $3.15, and the NG cost is 40c per GGE, and add in your 40c ROI, and you still have a margin of $2.85.
but when NG hits $10, the cost is $1.60 per GGE, add in your 40c and you are at $2, leaving $1.15 to cover all the opex and other...

I would say that, at the current NG/gasoline spread, there is a good profit margin, but with $10NG, there is probably little.

So it all depends on the company's view of the NG - gasoline spread.

Methanex obviously thinks its enough to justify relocating a plant, but until they, or anyone else, announce plans to build one, I guess the money and/or market isn't there - yet.

Thanks for that insight.

Plus the other 99 senators. If AIPAC certifies you are a friend of Israel, you get lots and lots of donations, otherwise you get smeared. Few can say no. The current economic sanctions bill (which is effectively economic war), passed 100:0, so Obama can't be seen to be opposing it. Of all recent presidents I think Bush pushed back the most (he was pugnacious after all), but it didn't do him any good, they got things their way regardless.

TX Engineer,

I'm a geologist, not a statistician, but I will try to explain it. I'm sure some of our more statistically oriented folks on TOD will be delighted to jump on me if I screw up this explanation, but here goes ;-)

The USGS uses a Monte Carlo method. They ultimately end up with a probability curve for the assessment area. This plots volume against probability. Note that this is for "Undiscovered, Technically Recoverable" petroleum. In other words, yet to be found petroleum.

So when for the Eagleford they report "P95" = 382, that means that they conclude there is a 95% probability that it is at least that large. A "P50" of 894 means that their is a 50% probability it is that big, and a "P5" of 1,940 means only a 5% chance it is that large.

The Mean is just the average of the curve. Because the probablility curve is not necessarily symetrical, the mean usually isn't the same as the P50. Note that for the Eagleford the P50 at 894 is somewhat smaller than the Mean at 994.

Their exact procedures involve several steps utilizing the best geologic info they can compile. As I understand it, they do separate probability distributions on numbers of traps, size of traps, reservoir, charge, etc. Then they roll those probabilities together into the final numbers. There are a lot of details about how one truncates some of those distributions, etc, that really complicate the exercise. For more background on what happens under the hood, you might start with National Oil and Gas Assessment Methodology

My own personal view is that the USGS's compilation and analysis of the regional geology is generally good. Their numbers for the "upside" are probably OK. I believe the problem is that they don't sufficiently weight the downside, which drives up the P50 and Mean too high. They don't make enough allowance for the possibility that some geologic factor, not reflected in the available data, will screw up their analysis.

I know a few of the USGS guys who have worked on these assessments. I've pounded rocks with, and drunk beer with several of them. They are good geologists, but most of them don't have a lot of industry experience. They have never drilled wells for a living. Drilling wells makes one very humble, very rapidly. You soon learn there plenty of "unknown unknowns" that will bite you, as often as not. Tends to make one a bit more conservative.

Says that 3 people have died in last 20 years, that's a mighty good track record given the technology they have down there.

The Rule of capture has some very negative consequences in promoting the overuse of resources:

The rule of capture or law of capture is common law from England, adopted by a number of U.S. jurisdictions, that establishes a rule of non-liability and ownership of captured natural resources including groundwater, oil, gas, and game animals. The general rule is that the first person to "capture" such a resource owns that resource. For example, a landowner who extracts or “captures” groundwater, oil, or gas from a well that bottoms within the subsurface of his land acquires absolute ownership of the substance, even if it is drained from the subsurface of another’s land. The landowner that captures the substance owes no duty of care to other landowners. For example, a water well owner may dry up wells owned by adjacent landowners without fear of liability,

Conservation acts

The rule of capture creates an incentive for an owner to drill as many wells as possible on his piece of land so as to extract the groundwater, oil, or gas before his neighbor. Very dense drilling can result in dissipation of the pressure within an aquifer or oil and gas reservoir, and therefore overdrafting of the aquifer or incomplete extraction of the substance. To mitigate this danger, many states have sought to supersede the rule of capture with conservation acts. Such acts enforce prorationing, pooling, and limits on density of drilling to avoid physical waste and ensure maximum ultimate recovery.

Because of the negative consequences of treating the right to produce water as an absolute right, many jurisdictions apply a Reasonable use rule which only allows landowners to extract water if it does not damage the aquifer or lower the water table. If it does dry up the neighbors' wells, they can sue for damages.

However, this results in too much litigation over water rights, so in Alberta (and some Western States) the government itself claims ownership of all the water and allocates it through the use of licenses to produce a specific amount. A landowner cannot drill a water well without a license, even on his own land, and he can only produce up to the limit on the license. Once the available water is allocated, the government does not issue any further licenses.

In Alberta, if the supply gets tight, the government will even reduce or cancel existing licenses and reallocate the water to higher-value uses. This can cause hard feelings among landowners, but it is intended to stop people from overusing the resource. Just because they own the land does not mean they have the unfettered right to use the water under it. The Alberta government takes the POV that if water is short, it will supply water to the nearest town, and they can buy it there and truck it to their property.

Did you mean Brad Lancaster, in Tucson, AZ? The link is: http://www.harvestingrainwater.com/

Just one journalist and not always accurate?
Ammonium fertilizer is made mostly from NG except in China where it mostly derives from coal. Uses about 5% of world NG consumption and about 1-2% of world fossil energy.
The biggest single part of the crude problem is still all that silly/neccessary these days driving around in USA, the great importer. So mankind might make a start with that. Or again, perhaps not just yet.

Err ... EDIT China imported something a tad over 200Mtoe of crude per year 2010 to 2011 against the USA's ~500mtoe. See the essential energy export databrowser http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/
But the China number is rising steeply. Who in the world needs the USA when we have China?

RMG, last year when the duties were reduced, the age limits on used vehicles were also relaxed. IIRC cars more than two years old could not be imported, which ruled out the vast majority of used cars from Japan as very few cars are sold before their first road-worthiness certificate expires at 3 years. You are right, in that the majority of Japanese cars are sold after their second road-worthiness certificate expires at 5 years. This used to be the limit when used Japanese cars first started appearing on the Jamaican market but, the costs of these cars which were usually very low mileage and in excellent condition, were so much lower than new cars that new car sales plummeted and JDM imports soared, causing the government to become alarmed at the raw numbers of used cars that were being imported.

The Suzuki Jimny is well represented here and by far most ordinary people drive what would be considered sub-compacts with the Honda Fit and similar sized cars from other manufacturers being very common.The ubiquitous Toyota Corolla is the most popular model with the Nissan Versa and Honda Civic also being well represented. In terms of trucks, the Toyota Tacoma, Nissan Frontier and Mitsubishi L200 vastly outnumber any full sized pickups from any of the US big three. For fans of the Ford Ranger, it is still being produced and sold, just not in the US. I have recently seen a few brand new Ford Rangers in police livery.

It is the "upper middle class" and "wealthy" for whom the price of gas is apparently not an issue that insist on driving European luxury sedans from the likes of BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Jaguar or SUVs, with the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado, Mitsubishi Pajero and BMW X5 being the most popular among the elite. The "bling" crowd (reggae superstars, narcotics traffickers and some of the nouveau riche) prefer to drive Cadillac Escalades and Range Rovers. I tagged along with some buddies of mine to a car show last Wednesday (public holiday) and my Jaw nearly dropped to the ground when I saw a brand new Porsche Panamera S (Porsche's 4 door full sized luxury performance sedan) sitting beside a large (S class?) mercedes 2 door coupe.

My beef with the folks who buy these vehicles that are relatively large, expensive and fuel inefficient is that, for the same money they plunked down on their status symbols, they could have probably made themselves self sufficient in electricity with a nice PV solar set up. Problem is that by their very nature they are unlikely to consider such matters since:

1)They are too busy acquiring more wealth
2)They are not aware of peak anything and are looking forward to BAU.
3)Renewable energy set ups do not make very visible status symbols.

I suppose it's not that much different from the situation anywhere else in the world.

Alan from the islands

And parsing his statement he did say "crude", which i would think would imply he knows the difference, -or could have in about one minute if he had asked.

I posted a comment on the story (on the NYT website) but it hasn't been published.
Rgds
WP

Achieving what he claims, would be like completeing twenty hail Mary passes in a row. Not mathematically impossible, but far far beyonf the pale.
Of course if we passed a $10/gallon tax on gasoline, and other oil products, we might be able to get there. That would really fly with Joe 6 Pack, wouldn't it?

He's saying that, due to higher domestic U.S. production and mandated biofuels (ethanol) mixed into gasoline, the U.S. could potentially become an exporter.

To become an exporter, at present consumption, we would need to increase production by over 8.5 million barrels per day to a total of about 14 million barrels per day. Surely he is not so dumb as to believe that. But of course he talks about increasing fuel efficiency in cars to 50 miles per gallon by 2025. As if that would do it.

Really Dick, that does not add to the credibility of the article very much.

Edit: A thought just occurred to me.

Were we a rational society, a virtue of which we have rarely
been accused, we would husband our oil and gas resources.
- M. King Hubbert

If we did, by some miracle, manage to produce ourselves, all the oil we needed, why in God's name would we want to export any of it? The supply is finite and the reservoir will one day run dry. The more export the sooner it will be gone. We once did export oil. Hubbert referred to this practice as our "Drain America First" policy.

Ron P.

I would be in favor of a taxed floor under fuel prices if it included sharp curtailment on the amount allocated to one of the worlds largest consumers ,the US military, and had components which;

-raised the minimum income requirement for filing taxes
-rebated individuals for the purpose of FF alternative transportation
-allocated funding for public transpotation projects
-allocated funding for renewables

I would also support that a fuel tax be incrimentally raised over time with the clear intent to discourage gas guzzlers and incentivize conservation

It is noteworthy that the per gallon fuel tax has not been raised in the US since fuel was $1.05 a gallon and current House bills for Fed. funding transportation is unbridled highway construction, strong new drilling provisions, depleating the highway trust fund and cutting off HPVs, Amtrak and (perhaps) public transportation.

The TF issue here is a blatant 'race to the bottom' strategy pitting us up against real oil exporters like Iran (supposedly with backing from the US military) but unfortunately our current fuel tax structure and spending is increasingly that too IMHO

Another take on Friedman ...

The Emperor's Messenger Has No Clothes: Belén Fernández Dresses Down Thomas Friedman

... Friedman tells the privileged, and those who aspire to privilege, what they want to hear in a way that makes them feel smart; his trumpeting of US affluence and power are sprinkled with pithy-though-empty anecdotes, padded with glib turns of phrases. He's the perfect oracle for a management-focused, advertising-saturated, dumbed-down, imperial culture that doesn't want to come to terms with the systemic and structural reasons for its decline. In Friedman's world, we're always one clichéd big idea away from the grand plan that will allow us to continue to pretend to be the shining city upon the hill that we have always imagined we were/are/will be again.

TF is famous for his rational on Iraq. "We needed to tell someone to suck on it". Nobody should ever take him seriously. But I do want to know how many Friedman units it will be before we can become an exporter of crude.

The thing is, he's not always wrong, and sometimes he makes some very useful connections. (Sorry, cooking dinner, can't back it up with links..) But as that TopQuote reminds us, there are areas where his mouth is automatically redirected by matters that ultimately tie in to his funding sources.. and logic quickly careens onto another set of tracks entirely.

Or, to draw as ever from highly accessible Pop Fiction..

"Music to Drown by, now I know I'm in First Class!" 'Tommy Ryan, TITANIC'

The strange thing is that most private shippers have not seen any notable change in demand for large crude oil carrying tankers this week.

Wonder if the Saudia have started lying about their production instead of just their reserves? It's of course more difficult to crank out BS production or export numbers than reserves.

That's my mental picture as well, but I'm questioning it because Texas is no longer a strong net exporter. The population has gone up and crude production, while increasing, is still lower than in previous booms. Natural gas prices are low, and natural gas is 2/3rds of the energy Texas produces these days. Up to now in the current economic doldrums, gas was a money maker (as gas exports were much more money than coal imports), but that's changing.

Interestingly, there are cities preparing for various kinds of disaster in a pretty serious way.

For example, McCormick Foundation Center for Advanced Emergency Response, here in Chicago.

"The McCormick Foundation Center for Advanced Emergency Response, which opened on Jan. 6, provides an unprecedented level of readiness for large-scale health emergencies, such as a mass outbreak or a terrorist attack."

There seems to be a lot of unease out there in city and state planning, and the desire to be prepared at various levels. It really depends on how one views the future, and what crises could be coming down the pike.

Jeez, I thought the Aircraft Carrier thing was in jest. Perhaps spaceships would be of more use in WY. I'll bet Cheney knows some folks....

RMG, you beat me to it! ;-)

You're right. He, and many others, would set up to slaughter buffalo in what was referred to as a "stand".

The buffalo would not stampede, but just stand there, as one after another animal would fall. A shoot like this would often have an assistant pouring water on the rifle barrel. Warped barrels were not uncommon.

He is supposed to have won the name "Buffalo Bill" in an eight-hour shooting match with a hunter named William Comstock, presumably to determine which of the two Buffalo Bill’s deserved the title.

A proud American icon of the wild west regularly engaged in wanton destruction with pride.

How buffalo Bones Became Big Business (PDF warning)

IMO, the pictures of bone piles are an obscenity

It was a way of dealing with the plains Indians, by starving them into submission. Now whether Cody was in on the plot, or just trying to make a buck, is for the historians to determine.

I didn't check them all, but the article of the Michigan poll is now dated, Feb. 13th. Here's a link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_pre...

That first page shows the national polls have Romney up in the last two by a slight margin. Forget the average poll % at the top - it averages over time which is misleading. As you can see Santorum 'did' have a sizable lead until his ego got the best of him and he started spouting off like it was Sunday at mass somewhere like Birmingham, Alabama or Biloxi, Mississippi.

The next primaries are this Tues. in Michigan and Arizona. On the left side of the above link click on those two states. Romney has a lead in both, so he probably will win both states and the momentum will swing in his favor.

I'm not crazy about MaBus (Massachusetts Businessman) but he will certainly be better than Santorum. The usual champion of the super wealthy, but at least not a preacher.

I presume that his excursion into Dutch health care will spell the end of Santorum's political career:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iO5ReCx0ZhY

I find this year's crop of republican candidates scary in the extreme. God help America.

NAOM

Rant away. You'll get no argument from me.

Newt was just on NPR, and it was just goofy. There's no shame. None.

The situation here in America is grotesque.

yorkie - Rant away buddy. I hereby allocate my rant quota to you. I just don't have the energy/will to use it anymore. I suppose it's all due to being a conservative who also has a firm grasp on PO. While I can understand why an R candidate would want to exploit the gasoline price in order to win an election (D's would do the same) it just reinforces the ignorance of the American people. And President Obama/Democrats do their share of promising the voters "solutions" that have little chance of happening in a meaningful time frame IMHO.

In my life I've never seen a bad situation resolved when there was a lack of leadership. Beyond the realities of PO, the lack of leadership from all quarters in the US is as much the cause for my pessimism.

If it bleeds it leads. So if it's a spill, say it in gallons to scare people better...